 Thank you very much and the detailed micro work that we've been discussing this afternoon at the interface of climate change and inequality is a much more comfortable zone for us but sometimes one gets put into situations and into policy discussions and and you cause to reflect upon the the bigger picture issues around sustainability and growth and poverty and inequality and and in these discussions we have the the climate shock coming through and the need to adapt and respond to the climate change and the climate emergency really at the same time we've had covert and we had it before all of this or before covert there was a very rich discussion an increasingly rich and textured discussion around the fact that certainly in the African context but in many parts of the world growth was leaving lots of people behind it wasn't inclusive and and it certainly wasn't adjusting naturally and to climate change and then covert head and we've been involved all of us on the paper in discussions then trying emerging post covert as well as the the climate discussion and climate commitments are binding becoming more and more binding and a need for a response and what's what's very what's making us very anxious is that there seems to be this this the perceived need in the policy space in every country we need to get growth going again we need to get and and it's like an old discussion in developing countries that okay let's stimulate growth and everything will follow but there's a mismatch then between their historical discussion and the this new discussion and it's it's it's it's very anxiety producing on the one hand there's the urgency of the discussions around sustainability climate change climate breakdown and linked into that if you just stay in the climate change set there's a big discussion about degrowth post growth etc that that doesn't seem particularly well linked to our discussions about how exactly how more more sophisticated and subtle links between economic growth poverty and inequality and how do they interact with each other particularly in the African context and and that's been the big issue but on the other hand you've got Sir Nicholas Stern pitching up at the World Economic Forum and every possible forum saying look this climate rupture is that is it lost the opportunity for us to start doing things right to look to inclusive growth to restart in a sense to use his language right so he's posing a much more virtuous link and and the one that links back to what was being recognized in the past and it's pressing that we actually think about that and think about what are the possibilities in that regard we know historically that if we just restart the old growth we're going to get the the old impacts if we're lucky post COVID and with climate change and we won't be addressing the climate change issue in Africa it's a particularly important issue we have a we all have 85% of the world's poor we've got it we've had a very sluggish response poverty response to economic growth and and there's other shocks on the horizon as well and we're not a very resilient continent the bottom end of the income distribution suffers from the shocks so we we've embarked on this exercise to to think again about what can we learn from the relationship between growth poverty and inequality in that has been thought about the whole history of development economics has grappled with this issue but Francois Borghignan and Chico was talking about this yesterday put this back on on the agenda with it with the so-called growth inequality and poverty triangle which is is not a it's not really an identity it's a framework it's a call to look at the texture of what's going on and the interrelationships between these two so we've embarked on this exercise and in a sense it's it's generously put it's work in progress okay so in some senses we're we're we're provoking you and in pulling you into the program because it's not that easy to actually deal with this but we've tried to do we've tried to do something that that that can get us on our way and then you can help us take it further so thanks so this is is the famous elephant diagram of a Bronco Milanovic and but it's it's we've put some things on here that we think are very important do you know how the diagram works I want to review the diagram right give me some head nods or something yes it's late in the day thank you keep the bottom 50 percent of of world income distribution captured 12% of the total growth so the returns to growth 12% of the returns to growth go to the bottom 50% and the top 1% captures 27% of the growth and this is in the context of a diagram that's about the changes in real incomes that doesn't mean there haven't been increases in incomes at the bottom end here that's what the diagram shows and a squeeze in the middle and then very sharp income growth at the very top end but that's a very unequal situation and the key point is there it is the fact that the growth is not trickling down that effectively there's some return there's been some poverty reduction we're not trying to deny that so what we did and this is Rwani what the co-author working on steroids we've made a life of misery on the data side we overlaid on this is the same graph we just created it ourselves and then we put Africa share of of the distribution so where does Africa sit in this world graph and it sits at the bottom in 1990 the share Africa share was was yes so you can see it's already high in the bottom percentiles and then declines now by 2016 it's got way higher at the bottom completely dominating the the dynamics at the bottom of the distribution are dominated that's the African reality that we're talking about in this growth poverty and inequality nexus globally that must be important when one's thinking about global growth and so that's why we did this and this is not working well so that's that's the the global framework it's that's not to deny that the continent has seen some reduction in poverty between 1980 and 2017 and in terms of the growth inequality of poverty triangle poverty reduction seems to have been greater in countries that observed a reduction in inequality and that's fully in line with the bogey on triangle framework that's what it's trying to get us to think about and more frequent in countries that that observed positive economic growth so this is not an exercise that's trying to deny the importance of growth it's trying to focus on the texture of growth and what makes growth sustainable lower poverty a lower inequality which in turn enables growth to be more inclusive okay and we do have a very high inequality part of the world and that's a key part of the reason why Africa's got such a low growth poverty elasticity is the actual texture of our economies and societies okay so we've also done a lot of a lot of data work that actually looks at the African nations countries and looks at their initial inequality and and looks at the change in their inequality the change in their growth the the change in in poverty and this is this is almost like the opposite approach to a cross-country regression this is like let's get all the data we can get about the countries and and see what we can see about the historical period we're trying to learn the lessons that we have to learn about the period from 1980 to 2017 and we've got many many of these and we had a big fight amongst each other as to which of these we're gonna put and you probably can't see them see this but maybe you can but it's just it's just to give you an example of the methodology we've used where we're taking we collating all these data and we're taking a look at it and so we've divided this graph into initial genie between point three two and four so low inequality if you like and then this is sort of middle inequality and so bit arbitrary to use Chico's word about how they started out their story yesterday and then this is high inequality and then we're looking at the change in poverty and the change in growth in the growth rates okay so it's just one way of looking at at least initial inequality and it's and how it seems to mediate the situation and it's notable was notable maybe not to you but it is notable when you get the presentation and look at it this is the change in poverty being zero right if you're above the line your poverty is increasing if you're both below the line your poverty is decreasing and this is the low inequality initial inequality if you like right in those contexts and what do you see you see that there's no country there is no data point in which the change in in poverty goes up even for negative growth rates yes he has growth rate of zero right even for negative growth rates and it's a complicated story and we're not trying to make it simpler than it really is because we've got countries where the actual change in growth whether it's negative or positive increased inequality or decreased inequality that's all the light and the dark dots etc etc and it's not so simple there but the key point is that if you've got a low base inequality it means you've got the base to build the society that's it's not exactly so if you move into the high inequality situation it's not exactly the same it's there there are a number of countries that actually had increases in poverty with any given growth rate and that's the key point that we which so we're trying to tell these these stories I can't show you a graph for each of those stories but I promise you there is one here's some here's some findings though so this is the this is the finding I chose to speak to countries with the lowest initial inequality experience of decline in poverty and never experienced an increase in poverty even when economic growth was negative countries with the lowest level of initial poverty so initial poverty counts too if you've got low initial poverty it's also a sign that you've actually got resources to cope with whatever and hopefully to get into a growth process and mostly they do not experience an increase in inequality nor poverty offer off that low base and this independently of changes in GDP so there's their graphs about that so in Africa the nature of economic growth and the initial levels of both poverty and inequality condition the sustainability and unsustainability of growth processes going forward that's not earth shattering took us an incredible amount of time to do this sort of stuff but you can see the exercise we're embarking on right so there's the global context and how does Africa fit into that there's country specific stuff and and there's some lessons and I've stated the most most of the key lessons and so well let me just restate them going back to old strategies of reigniting growth will not produce the expected results or it will produce the expected results that we expect but won't won't actually generate the sustainable societies that are being demanded of us and seeking growth without distributive concerns will fail to address the the objective of reducing poverty okay and then you've got the imperative of climate action that makes a business as usual approach to economic growth completely unlikely to succeed initial levels of inequality are really important same initial levels of poverty well wealth inequalities are on the rise and this is not very hotening it's going to make the whole process harder if we just consider the business as usual model so identifying how growth is distributed across the population in real time if we want to go forward and acknowledge the fact that okay we do need to get it activity increasing we have to start understanding the texture of that growth that seems to be the key and that's where we think we should proceed but actually we've just given you enough for you to tell us what to do thank you