 Hi everybody and welcome. Thanks for coming to this session. My name is Leo Roberts I'm the research manager in the fossil fuel transitions team at E3G based in the UK This is the panel on coal phase outs and just transitions with some regional perspectives So it's going to be touching on oil and gas. No doubt But this is going to be a coal talk be prepared and be excited about that And obviously we know that coal is the most climate polluting fuel and the fuel that we need to stop burning Most rapidly if we're going to keep warming below 1.5 degrees There are lots of really promising signals out there in the world that we're on the right track The collapse of the global pipeline of new coal power stations is making it clear that countries around the world are turning their back on burning coal But it's also clear that we're not moving in this direction nearly fast enough to keep 1.5 aligned with lots of countries continuing to pursue coal production Um And a 1.5 aligned pathway meaning that these producers and those that are expanding their production Are going to have to deal with a very rapid transition in the not too distant future So we've got a great panel with us today. Uh, libo chen is a phd candidate in the school of economics at the university of south hampton Uh, and a graduate of masters of economics from the university of wisconsin madison His research interests include environmental economics and climate economics Uh, next to libo paula Uh, yangrass paula is an economist with a public policy master's degree Currently a research associate and phd candidate at the coal exit group of the technical university in berlin Uh, working on analysis and modeling of socioeconomic and distributional implications of coal phase out in coal dependent regions Uh, next the paula is gareth gareth is an associate professor in the school of international development at the university of east anglia A visiting fellow at the sydney environmental institute university of sydney and a holder of the levo huma international fellowship Uh, next the gareth is professor dr. paul yui paul yui is a full professor of economics of sustainable energy system transition At europea university at flensburg and head of the coal exit research group at e u f to u berlin and di w berlin And paul yui was the coordinator of the coal transitions research hub, which i'm sure many of you will have come across and finally jose vega arausil Is a research assistant at sei latin america in bogota colombia where he works on just transitions initiatives around carbon locking and approaches to science technology and innovation for sustainable development Uh, and jose is a petroleum engineer with an msc in international cooperation So without further ado, i'll hand over to lebo and remind all the presenters that you have 10 minutes and i will be militant about the timing so Thank you leo for the um opening and i'm a phd student in an university of south samton in economics and Because i don't see many audience here at the early time. So i'm kind of worried now it's It's a better i think and and our research is actually about a To display and the fact that white green recovery fails. Yeah, we consider it is a fail after the crisis of the pandemics Uh, and we have this because uh from the implication from coal Actually, uh, we're using, uh, some descriptive statistics, uh from bp's statistics and co-planchecker Uh to do a descriptive statistics, and then we use some we have selected some countries to a Have a country, you know country cases to further back up our conclusions So As we can see that, uh From the research That davis had in 2022 then we can see that the daily co2 carbon dioxide emissions actually Go searching up after 2021 that's uh About the times uh when um the pandemic Uh, as you know just came to an A phase of an n and We can also see that there's uh, you know According to an iea in 2021 we have a A plateauing of co-consumption resumes since 2019 So that's uh the basic that so It kind of brings up to our research questions that is Why is there a co rebound? Well, we say rebound but we mean that there is a co-consumption Surging up, uh, uh, you know since the pandemic And we kind of break it into three sub questions. That is the co rebound of resume growth Or it's just a final Surging up before a lonely client And the second one is that uh I think this most important one is about the major factors Driving the co rebound and the last one is about the factors countering the co expansion globally So as we can see that uh This is our research methodology Using the uh, uh, studies from BP studies review and co and global co-plan checker We do a uh descriptive statistics first and then we select As you can see Vietnam, Zimbabwe, China, India, Germany, USA, Australia and Indonesia as our country cases And we divided them into three types of countries That's uh, uh, sorry four types of countries. That's phasing established phase out export oriented based on their co-consumption So yeah, uh, the examples of each category you can see from the table And next let's look at the Uh co-consumption rebound of the basic results So as we can see that in 2021 China and India Has about 5% increase of their co-consumption But surprisingly the US and the Germany has more than 14% increase each Uh, we'll talk about the drivers behind this later and this is those astonishing results So, uh, let's come to the supply side of the, uh, co-markets as we can see that You know, uh, there is a big increase in newly added Co mines, but most of them Is open in China That's a, you know, a very serious problems in China and This one is the very interesting graphs, I think because we kind of display the gross amount and the gross rates of Each type of countries that is phasing phase out and established countries based on their co-consumption And we can see that Uh The gross rates of The co-power plants. Oh, sorry. That's that's the co-power plants gross the co-power plants gross rates actually ranked by Phasing up obviously It's the highest and then established And lastly is the phase out countries But we can see that In terms of amount established countries still have the highest amount of co-power plants change and but but phasing countries did not have that much and phase out countries kind of do a great job in You know phase out coal. I think that's why they are called phase out countries Uh, they actually decrease their Co-power plants capacity over the years And we can see some interesting results here is that um From 2008 to 2010 that's the financial crisis and we have kind of called rebound in power plants But we do not have core rebounds in after 2019 That's an interesting conclusion Uh, but uh conclusion in conclusion from 2007 to 2021 phase out countries accelerating phase out steps And established countries is actually slowing down co-power plants gross rates Okay, next slide is about the Uh, the amount increase by each countries specifically And we can see that China still has the most amount of co-power plants change increase specifically And we can see that the united states and germany has phase out their co-power plants for many years and countries like, um uh, vietnam indonesia still struggling about, uh increasing their co-power plants, but we a slower gross rates recently so then it comes to a I think The second biggest contribution of our research We have concluded the policy re-changement in major co-countries Uh, as you see that quick through here, we had 14 countries and a month 14 country who consume more than 1% of global coal Eight countries underwent policy re-changement favoring coal That's quite astonishing And we can see that china and india both had policy re-changement favoring coal But uh, yeah, thank you. Uh, united states do not let's quick go quick through. Thank you but I think the most important part is our drivers of rebound as we can see that we divide the Drivers into economic political infrastructure and climate factors And we can see that most factors the green the light green one are the economics factors And and almost every country had been suffered, uh About their core rebounds by the extreme weather It's the bottom line And for the counter reinforces we can see that We divided into economic and political So the problem is how to translate political pressure into immediate actions So lastly is the discussion and the inclusion conclusions We have kind of conclude the drivers major drivers in These countries recently Actually, it's a return of geopolitics As you can see that short-term impacts of market volatilities that's We think is the most important one And then we have impacts of the construction of supply chains Lastly we can have, uh Extreme weather climate induced rebound And that's I think that's all of our research. So thank you. Thank you very much Well, that was impeccably timed. You had one second left. So uh, yeah, excellent work. Thank you I think you've presented a really mixed picture of Uh, the global coal power landscape. That's extremely interesting. Thank you. Uh, so paula over to you So, hello everyone. I'm really happy to be here and see so many familiar faces and Also, because I know a lot of the context. I don't have to explain because this little thing United as a since a long time even though we want to do something else with our lives as the previous presenter Explained it looks like there's so much work still to do on this. So, um, yeah A I'm really grateful for the previous presentation because it already explained some of the context. Um But this presentation, uh, it's actually Uh, the work of many colleagues, uh from the cold exit group, which now changed to fossil exit group Name actually, uh, but we gather our experience into different consuming and producing countries and put up perspectives together on Where we think this is going, uh more in the long term based on the short term Developments that we've seen in in coal markets Uh, so this is the outline some background on why is coal now resurgent and The short term and medium term sort of developments that we think We could be expecting and then the core of what we want to talk about which is While why we think this can have important risks for coal exporting countries and how can they, um Face those risks or some lines of action. So Yeah, as as we saw this is actually coming from another paper that we wrote Uh in 2020 when the pandemic came was the lowest declining coal demand and Uh, there was this sort of momentum coming to a glas go and it's the end of coal and big announcements and all of that So we made a whole range of scenarios of a well called demand could be going Which is that a big range you see there and without going into too much detail because that's a paper from 2020 The basic thing was there's huge uncertainty about the future and those five sort of a key messages that we found Some of them are still holding now and some of them we don't know. So the first one is that a We had found that the trends affecting negatively coal markets before the pandemic Were strengthened through covet and now this is a big black box. We don't know if this is the case Still so that's the main motivation for the paper Everything else is still valid. So the design of covet recovery policies as the previous presentation So we'll have a big influence in this long-term outcome. That's still the same Trade restrictions back then it was australian china, but now they're bigger Trade restrictions or trade restrictions and changes have dramatically changed the composition of the trade market That's even more important now as we see And then the the saddest ones that's why I say we will still be around probably in this business for a few years Is that none of those scenarios was compatible with party's agreement? None of them even the most ambitions. There were sort of market driven scenarios And therefore targeted policies were needed to really increase the speed of coal phase out So that's all of that's still the same but the black box is where those trends have been reversed or not with the most recent developments and this is Actually an explanation of some of those things that we've seen Those are coal prices the they're not all the benchmarks, but we see some european benchmarks And as the previous speaker explained after the recovery The economic recovery in 2021 we started seeing so the lowest price we saw in 2020 was 40 dollars per ton and it started increasing increasing increasing it reached over 150 Dollars per ton in in mid 2021 and now since the invasion of ukraine it just has got over the roof and now A ton of coal surpassed the 400 dollars a per ton Benchmark, which is insane and we will we will have never expected that A something interesting to see in this graph. It does even thought there have been price increases the chinese reference Price is not going up as quickly. So this is mostly the european benchmarks A But this is something very interesting for co-expertors because it suddenly from 40 dollars per ton to 400 dollars per Time becomes more attractive to keep a selling coal So how have countries reacted because I don't have much time. I'm not gonna Go into much detail, but A russia has definitely been impacted by this So because they have limited capacities to export on the seaborn and they're mostly Now exporting to china at discounted prices, but definitely they're not replacing entirely them The exports we also think some of the exports going through kazakhstan could be A coal coming from russia, but it's very Unknown Then we have all these other exporters like colombia n australia obviously very happy boosting a Exports as much as they can Then we have prosumers meaning producers and consumers so countries that are also a Consuming they've also It started a increasing exports But countries like indonesia, which is also a very dependent country they're struggling to to keep a The national market on because with this difference they have a fixed price for the internal coal So they're struggling with emitting their own national targets for consumption us is not struggling so much and we also think they cannot export a lot more because they're more or less at the maximum end of their capacity seaborn export capacity a china and india biggest importers and and consumers and They are taking advantage of some discounted imports from russian coal and a In india, it's particular because a they have some weather events that are constrain in their own national productions But the important thing for those two is that they are Really focusing on trying to strengthen their national market. So really becoming less dependent on imports So this is more a short short-term Development that they're taking advantage of this opportunity, but obviously they're focusing most on their national market And these guys are new players that have large core reserves and now starting to really ramp up Exports in the case of most and big very interesting. They're exposed mostly exporting south african coal um through their ports but Obviously, there's a revival of hopes that they can exploit more of the more of their reserves and export them under the new prices and developments and i'm running a Short of time But what i want to say is that this whole new boom of oh high prices Let's export as much as we can it's actually a bit of an accelerated a Conclusion because this is demand and this probably will change by the end of the year, but this is called Consumption compared to 2021 it has actually not increased. It's almost the same. It's a slight decrease a So globally we're still not seeing this massive increase in demand in consumption not really that's why Because china has decreased consumption quite a lot So the decrease in china is compensating for sort of increases in other places of the world including the european union and india That's what i'm saying when they when they stop their covet restrictions They're starting to open now gradually this can change by the end of the year But it's not nearly as dramatic as everyone is expecting with these prices Conclusion is those prices Are this is the same for oecd countries? So that's a electricity generation in oecd as you see college even decreased a little bit a Hydro nuclear decreased quite a lot and the only ones that are strongly increasing are renewables gas also increased a little bit So a main point for this is that these super high prices going up very quickly They're not a result of a structural scarcity in the in the market They're not a result of an increased demand, but they're mostly about The reconfiguration of the trade patterns that is happening very heavily because of those imports. So that was flows in 2017 And they have been reconfigurated quite a lot. We don't have numbers, but this is more or less what we've seen so for instance, we see a huge increase From indonesia to to india instead of china and china importing this discounted Russian coal and Basically the revival of the atlantic market colombian us exporting to europe So it's basically a huge reconfiguration of trade patterns that has of course together with some speculation about the future of the energy crisis made a huge pressure on the prices but Main point these prices are not coming from a structural scarcity in the market There's enough. There's plenty of coal and demand is not going up nearly as quickly as Some people think so To come to an end Yeah, so so what can we spend in the medium to long term? This is very short term dynamics So we believe the key drivers and that was the big box at the beginning of the presentation the key drivers That were affecting negatively coal demand. They have been actually not reversed so this is the levelized cost of electricity and of course also fuels gas and Coal which are the main competitors in electricity sector with these super high prices. They are only basically A much worse under competitive advantage compared compared to to renewables So we can only expect of course the cost of upfront capital for renewables has increased But we expect this to to be even worse. So A Those are the futures of coal so coal prices will probably still be up for a few years That could basically kill all the new power plants in their economic terms Unless you have some political willingness to subsidize them heavily You won't see much of that and this is the statistics everyone knows from the coal plant a tracker Is that all those plant and new projects? They're mostly concentrated or heavily concentrated in asia South is asia and in india So we think basically Yeah, we can talk about it later But we see yeah, we think there there is a huge risk for all these exporters. They're they're betting on hard prices They're betting on high demand But we don't see in the medium to long term. None of this demand really materializing and none of those prices really staying that up So they can end up in a downward spiral of stranded assets and missing a big opportunity if they a Just go up with the Rush for coal. Thank you So Thanks paola And that that was great. So liba and paola have given us some really good context on the global coal outlook The next three presentations Going deeper into what the just transition for producing countries Might look like and how it's perceived in different contexts. So garrif over to you The session title is coal transitions Coal and just transitions and I want to tell you about two countries that have no plans for any kind of transition Let alone any just transition. That's australia and india, but focusing on australia Uh, where i've been doing some work looking at how justice narratives are used to underpin ongoing coal extraction in the context of climate consensus So i want to start back in paris Uh with the indian prime minister narendra modi's statement about conventional energy just to bring this back onto the Agenda remember modi was saying What does uh, a fair climate justice outcome look like it means developing countries like india can keep using conventional energy Conventional energy in india means coal We should make it clean and impose An end to its use and there should be no steps for unilateral or no place for unilateral steps that become economic barriers for other others So you have this kind of climate justice argument framing the debate from india And it's also will be no surprise the word the debate's been framed from australia. This is our former prime minister Uh, god bless him. This is coal. Do not be afraid in parliament. He said do not be scared It will not hurt you. This is a great video if you want to show it to your undergraduate students It's coal that has endured for over a hundred years Ensured that for over a hundred years australia has enjoyed an energy competitive advantage that has delivered Prosperity and so on and so forth. So you have india Convinced that coal is part of the future and with good reason I'd say And australia very keen to make any argument for why it should continue Exporting coal particularly in the future to india. So the context in terms of climate justice and just transitions I quite like this quote from james goodman Who says, you know the paradox of coal is it's both enabled the patterns of development that we know at the moment But it also in producing climate change threatens that development So the previous speakers have covered most of the context in terms of the coal trade Which I don't need to spend a lot of time on here purely to say that it's Very concentrated This will be no surprise to people here australia and ind indonesia export 70 of the world's coal And 80 of the coal in each of those countries and energy content is exported And it's almost all going to one place as uh as pala said it's all going into the asian coal market particularly china And with a growing demand from india and the little red wedge by itself is the sort of so-called in iea terms other non uesidia asia area so That's where the coal is going and where it's coming from And just to give you a little bit more context about where it coming from in a subnational sense in australia It's coming from a very small geographical area. So 80 percent of australia's coal is exported 87 percent of australia's black coal is exported Which means that Whatever you think about the domestic transition in australia The bigger question the elephant in the room is always what happens to australia's coal exports All comes from this broad area in new south wales and queensland Where there is a large concentration of existing mines, but also Proposed mines which have attracted a lot of media attention most notably Adani's Carmichael coal mine in the galley basin I don't think I can which is on the western side in queensland So the take home point here is that australia has two coal industries that we have to think about differently There's one which is the one that attracts most of the focus at least in transition discussions in australia That's the domestic coal fired generation industry epitomized by these brown coal lignite power stations in victoria loyang a and b Where the transition is already underway. It's being driven by mostly multinational companies who own the power stations who are either looking to get out of coal According to esg reasons or just because they can't make any money out of it anymore But you have a very different story on the export side Which is 87 percent as I said of australia's coal by energy content And here the story is really of continuity And even expansion And where's it going? Okay, it's all going into asia. It's going into china india and the rest of asia and Of course, there's been well publicized problems with australia selling its coal to china which have Notably disappeared as china's been struggling with drought and its hydroelectric generation more recently But the broader picture of the coal market and paulo is talking about this as well is that it's all about asia So fatir birral said in 2017 look he said oh look i told you in 2011 You want to be looking at india. You want to be looking at china. This is where coal Decisions are being made And so in 2017 he says i told you so So this gets to the question of a just transition I had a project over the Northern winter looking at ideas about just transition in australia to discover in fact That in contrast to in europe Just transition is not a term that has any purchase in australia One of my respondents said just transition is poisoned here as an idea Even those working on transition with an understanding of the kind of historical precedent for a just transition policy the way it emerged in the labor movement Don't want to use the term much prefer the term economic diversification So why is that and there's a sort of old politics of just transition and an emerging politics of just transition the old politics is Well embodied by the former resources minister matt canavan who was famous for saying things like Just transition is an objectionable term or the leader of the national party Barnaby joists who in the recent federal election campaign said i'm not going to use this word transition because transition means unemployment So there was a strong capture in amongst some political circles and media circles of the notion of just transition and an association with actually structural adjustment gone wrong in electorate significant electorates So just transition is transformed into the opposite of what From a labor perspective just transition was originally designed to embody But there's a new politics of just transition going on in australia as well So you might be familiar the labor government was elected in may and the first thing that albany's Easy the new prime minister said is we are going to be a renewable energy superpower But of course what he and the labor party has been very careful not to say is what that means for australia's coal exports Because by all accounts it means more of the same So the resources ministers in australia always have a habit of boosting the coal and gas industries And madeline king is no exception Recently with our energy crisis in the domestic grid on the east coast She said you know the solution to our problem is to restart some coal fired power stations Which at that point happened to be not generating because they had broken down um And this emerging shift towards framing just transition in term in australia in terms of extraction rather than coal of critical minerals so Both lithium cobalt and rare earths for the new economy So it's a sort of transition that involves digging more stuff up While continuing to dig the old stuff up So i've only got a minute left, but i just want to Point to the way that australian coal is being justified and it's really interesting linking with india um That the way that australian coal is consistently justified is about quality It's about uh lifting people out of poverty And it's about kind of responsible production This comes from both government and the industry So here you have uh in the the tweet screenshot on on the right hand side the former resources minister again Standing there with the now second richest man in the world go to madani saying you know this car Michael coal mine It's going to be a net plus in terms of environmental impacts for the world It's going to help lift people out of poverty in india And as only australian coal can do that right? We're better off mining australian coal than letting india expand their coal production Because their coal's a bit crap right and alcohol is better. It's more our climate safe You might think that albernesi would have changed that kind of rhetoric But of course he's still both sides of politics are very close to the fossil fuel lobby in australia So just a couple of weeks ago. He had dinner with the minerals council over the australia And he promised, you know, look guys things are not going to change too much or too quickly We're going to keep on with the coal exports Rather than talking about it as coal is good for humanity as another former prime minister Tony Abbott said albernesi is talking about an orderly transition Maybe it's close to a just transition, but maybe it involves no transition And just to finish up to say this is entirely the same message that we get from the major coal miners in australia Adani renamed their company bravis The email addresses are the same, but all of the major players in australia are using this line And though the environmental movement in australia has focused on campaigning against adani's carmackle mine It's worth acknowledging that glen core is the biggest miner in australia with 17 coal mines And the impacts of those far outstrip adani's In questions, I can talk about how just transitions are emerging in australia But I just want to finish on this question of taking a critical lens to the question of just transition And pro-cold justice discourses more broadly I really like the way that uh, sipleton harrison in a paper in environmental politics a couple of years ago Said we need to get beyond treating Just transition uncritically we need to actually unpack the term Understand what it means and in what context Or as white put it in 2020 whether the just in just transition should prioritize the struggles of displaced fossil fuel workers and communities Or Give priority to colonized people against settler colonial states australia ie Or even the ecological debt between the north and the south is far from settled So we have to get beyond just talking about the language of just transition turning it into another sustainable development And actually the content and the politics of what that means Thank you very much Glad to be here once again talking about different topics and also glad to see that so more people try to work on coal I remember sessions from the past still when people are most even within the fossil fuel supply site conference Most people were focusing oil and gas and so nice to see that more people keep on working on Coal and I think there's a lot to take Um, this is work that we from work with several people of my group, especially also christian haunstein who is here in the room and some other people I'm thinking a bit about coal commissionings and how far they can be immune to basically ease the phase out of coal especially in main coal producing countries and therefore within this room I don't have to explain that it's sometimes difficult to phase out coal and you might have different actors and stakeholders and sometimes political Governments or like governments actors find it difficult to come to terms to agree on something Especially if it's kind of contested and they have been basically on the barricades for the last decade. So therefore Within different kind of environmental settings. We've seen the different kind of commissions stakeholder commissions committees Expert commissions, however, they were being framed or set up We're able to ease these kind of stalemate situations and therefore come up with a kind of way to Include just transition aspects as well as phase out trajectories and therefore this was basically our main Idea and plan behind this that we wanted to examine a bit house the situation in different countries And we've seen in the last years that several countries including Chile, germany, check republic and Which did I forget now? Canada basically set up different kind of commissions. We've had similar processes a bit of a different style just transition processes in spain There was the commission that also jesse talked about in south africa taking place At that point where we did this study. It was just at the beginning So therefore we focus on the fourth first case is germany, canada, check republic and chile because these were kind of More similar commissions and we try to analyze a bit in how far were they similar or different And then I will in particular talk about the german case because this is the case that I know best And therefore I will therefore have two different parts of my presentation. So to speak Wanting to say is basically that I will jump in general through these advantages and disadvantages relatively Fastly to have a bit of time to talk more about details But basically there is this criticism that it's difficult. We put people in the room. They have to decide on something They will come up with a Smallest common denominator, which is basically not in line with the paris agreement. So therefore, this is the question Can commissions be radical enough given the speed that we need to transition to be in line with the climate Targets of paris and this is the big question or should we instead opt for regulatory approaches or something else to kind of bring this topic forward And these are like the next three slides are big tables just of the the data and I will not go in detail It's basically always germany, canada, check republic and chile and it's different elements that are being Analyzed over here and I'm just highlighting different elements because I want to point out that these four commissions They were all very differently set up depending on the situation that the country was in For example with respect to canada the coal phase up by 2030 was decided beforehand So basically the commission was just focusing on the just transition process But they didn't have to focus about do we have to phase out coal and which year is the best year to deal this So therefore there was a different setting the german coal commission Each of these commission rounds was more than 100 people meeting in a room because there were so many advisors So it's a different setting. It's more people than here other commissions were much smaller In general, we always have more men than women in the room The extreme was the check republic like one woman 18 men sitting there We always try to a lot of commissions try to include people from all different Society groups basically stakeholders from different entities, but they were not always equally represented But basically I will come to this later on Jumping into a bit of like elements for example If you look at the final conclusions even there it wasn't the same such as for example canada and chile There was no final vote whether everybody would agree on the recommendations or something There was just a report in germany There was a vote and nearly everyone agreed But one vote was against it in the case of the check republic Actually, there were four votes against it basically the entire environmental side didn't agree with recommendations So therefore you can criticize the report being well to report the majority agreed But everyone who was against coal didn't agree on it If you look at the coal phase out date 2050 to 2038 in germany similar in check republic 2038 And then you have 2040 in chile and in general everything that all of them have in common They're all asked for money This is basically something that apparently everyone can agree on if you put them in the room That will come up with some some demands Interestingly enough normally they couldn't really decide on the budget They were just like coming up with we need this this amount of money and very often It's just more like a political number. It's not that there's really clear calculation behind it Where you are that's where the building exactly should be spent. It's more like Yeah, the the number that comes up it needs to be Big enough so that people feel justified and some kind of but it cannot be too big so that Policy makers are not scared by it, but really it's it's there's no real process behind it It's it seems a bit. Yeah random in some cases Interesting love if you look at the outcome in the end It's not that the countries then did what was in the recommendations in case of germany 25 2035 2038 The government then put this in place more or less similar But then the next government just retorted it up to 2030 In case of chaco public they came up with 2038 But the government didn't really like this and is basically now going for 2033 So much more ambitious than what the recommendations did so therefore In Chile it will also be earlier than 2040 and in canada's case It wasn't decided anyhow before that so therefore I think one of the important findings to find out It's not that the commission is necessary about finding the end date It's about moving the process moving the discussions further in some cases easing a stalemate so that the next government can then Take it from there because we've changed the narrative from should we phase out call yes or no to Okay, we'll phase it out and now we can see about about the pathway. We need some things to happen There's still some open questions. We need answers additional studies additional finances, etc, etc Going a bit more digital into the germany case because this is where we come from which we know the best Based on semi-structured interviews that we did we talked to the different members In the call commission on the perspectives and in how far especially the setup of the stakeholder commission Did enable these recommendations or not? So we didn't want to focus whether it was now 38 or 37 or something But we are like tried to look at these different elements Just for those of you that don't know the composition of the call commission group I would say was relatively fair. You could say one third was pro-call one third was against call one third was undecided in some kind of way And you need to know that there had been a lot of discussion on call for the decades before that already So there was a tons of information basically on there just wanting to quote a couple of People that we interviewed on the different things One of the interviews said It was also a very important point in the commission's work that commission members from different camps Trusted each other trusted each other's professionalism Trusted each other's value trusted each other to get through things So this is like the the element of trust is something that is very important. There were also leakages Of important things pushed through to the media But to be honest this only happened within the big planner meetings There were lots of smaller informal meetings and within these most information state confidential And this was essential for the work to to work through Um talking about these big groups also one of the respondents said It became clear that a lot of time could pass in such a large group There's a group of 100 people But in the end there would be no call compromise And then there were considerations to convene a group of people who had been the call commission Who were more or less represented all groups and were accepted by all So basically there was like within the big groups There was no talk about the phase out date or what the now millions of years that we needed There was just more like political statements and just was a show But basically the real talks happened in small groups so-called friends of chairs groups They were basically picked by sometimes the chairs It's not a clear process. There wasn't a full mandate for them It was very informal the way that things were set up Some things were also a bit random how they turned out to be As you can see by basically one of the other quotes was I don't think anyone in this case of the chairpersons really had a concept of how a commission has to go through different phases And then also come to results which to some extent sees a different interest and then creates a balance of interest instead of the smallest compromise So it's not that there was a blueprint for anything. It was really like at the beginning the first session They sat together and they said like how should we do this? They couldn't really agree on it and they changed the structure that they worked They first met always in the planum then they decided let's have two different groups one on coal phase out one on just transition Then they met in the first small groups and they realized it's everyone going to both small groups because no one wants to talk just in one Element so therefore basically they were like well, then we can just meet again in the planum again So basically they reconfigured all these different things Um, continuously to talk about the things It was also stated that in germany we have the federal states and we have prime ministers for the different federal states And they didn't have voting rights But they were allowed to sit there and they had speaking rights and actually they were incredibly powerful because they used these Rights continuously and pushed through a lot of things that they wanted to be heard Also to form a prime ministers were chairs. So this definitely helped So was said that they basically skillfully maneuvered in such a way that the federal states had the right to intervene And speak in the commission at any time. So they were very experienced and they used to were able to push this through Interestingly enough also talking about these compensation mechanisms What we can say is whether they get another billion or not for structural measures That's the size of for prime minister from a climate perspective. It doesn't matter like for the ngo's It was fine if more billions would go into structural support programs They were like, yeah, we can agree on this as long as we get an earlier phase out You can get more money. That's fine with us. So therefore Taxpayer was not included in the commission. So they basically agreed on different things Um, not wanting to focus too much on the topics but basically more to the findings So basically you can say in some kind of way the commissions fail to achieve a phase out That is in line with the paris agreement on the other hand it managed to Basically loosen this gridlock situation Which kind of enabled basically talks afterwards to move up the decision It was also mentioned by people that was only because germany managed to agree on a coal phase out That within the european union they were able to agree on the green deal and all these other plans Because otherwise if germany wouldn't have had a solution Um, this would have been a problem as well. So therefore it was important We would say from our findings that expert commissions basically commissions with a lot of professors For example are helpful to acquire new knowledge in the case of germany You needed a stakeholder commission because the expertise was there You just needed them basically to sit a room pacify the existing stalemate Um talking a bit about governance aspects. Um, the question is who should be leading this Should it be like a ministry with respect to structural change cohesion policy helpful because they have the expertise But they are not focused on climate aspects environmental or climate ministry focused on climate aspects But they sometimes do not have the power to do so And I think the importance depending on the country's characteristics is also in how you include local governments regional governments Historic experiences in germany from the 50s 60 70s have shown that if you do not include these local activities Then you will plan not for the country, but for different things that are not Um working properly. So last three policy recommendations We would say a commission needs a clear mandate It needs to be clear what they should be doing ideally in line with paris They need to include all members of society younger members from the global south, etc We're not included in the germany case power imbalances You cannot include just people give them a seat at the table without enabling them to really use this power in space Less experienced member within the coal commissions were hardly being heard even though they were included So therefore this is important building up trust is essential within the commission And then last slide just putting up the advertisement slide of our coal transitions.org That we basically had relaunched four years ago after we had talked about this year With some other members feel free to put up your data. This is out there. We're just advertising everything coal research data independently. Thank you very much Thank you everyone for being here. I'm very glad to be in this space sharing with these people and these amazing researchers as well um I'm going to share about a project that we carried out in sci latin america with my colleague elisa aron He's also here And it's about uh, what's the role of science technology and innovation in just transition away from coal So you might guess my presentation is going to be a bit different from the last ones But it's a nice context from the global and now we are driving it to the regional and perspective why sti well, we We've seen how this intense emergence of innovation policy approaches to transitions are coming mainly from The global north but much less have been said from the global south So we wanted to focus on a case study from colombia from the core regions in in colombia A bit of the context, um, we focus on three regions. La guajira, cesar and mcdalena in the north of colombia that you see in the map Um, la guajira and cesar concentrate 90 percent of coal production in the country and 90 percent of coal production in the country is exported What that means is coal for colombia is mainly a source of royal of revenues But not domestic energy So it has an implication in transition efforts at the regional and at the national level as well There is a strong economic dependence on coal mining from these regions But this dependence has not been translated into benefits. So you have unemployment rates informality dependence on royalties Multidimensional poverty rates. They are very Up and above the national average and in terms of the innovation systems. They are incipient We have some actors like regional universities STI committees Competitive different committees, but they are purely articulated and there are very few spaces like this um, so We what we did was coming up with a framework to analyze what was happening with STI in these regions and we were inspired by notions of transformative innovation mission oriented innovation policy and the seven principles for a just transition to come up with three axis That helped us to interrogate documents like regional planning documents Royalties investments or revenues investments as it were and also education capacities in these regions One of these axes is directionality and is it tries to ask this question of where our priority is being set And are they deepening dependence to fossil fuels? Then planning consistency as coherence, which is mainly asking these questions of What's happening with plans programs and projects at these regions and how coherent are they with regional planning? And then education innovation and experimentation which looks at human capital What is human capital being prepared for and are revenues facilitating experimentation in these regions experimentation? It's important since transitions are not linear processes They have many solutions and they are many pathways to to arrive to the solution So experimenting different solutions and different pathways is important And then we thought right. So are all of these axes being you know Responding to the realities and potentialities of the territories And what we found is in terms of directionality, there is a clear bet on traditional diversification What this means is related diversification mainly so regional development plans Support the expansion of fossil fuels through different strategies like promoting free trade zones or logistic clusters In terms of oil and gas for example And this has been reinforced by national level strategies There is a bit of a shift in colombia with the new political cycle So we this is focused on the last one So no on the on the on this new one, which is generating some nice expectations But not concrete commitments so far And another key issue we found is these regions are mainly focusing on new carbon intensive sectors Like tradition livestock blue hydrogen new extractives like online gas So we don't see From the normal from the what we see in the diversification strategies This balance on a betting on traditional diversification and also carbon intensive sectors when they are alternative ones In terms of planning consistency and coherence ensuring temporal coherence is a key challenge for these regions And hearing to pow It's very similar to what's happening in the committees in in the Commissions just transition commissions. We don't have a commission in colombia yet But ensuring coherence from one a regional planning document to another is it's it's key And there are institutional spaces for sti in these regions like sti commitments at sti commissions and also competitiveness committees but Poorly articulated with the private sector. I mean call co-companies does not appear in these spaces and Who is being represented here is a quick question as well. We have universities Regional think tanks that are participating spaces But they tend to be the same ones that are in the sti committee and then in the planning committee as well Mine closure plans are mostly unknown in these regions and this is important since we also carry out a number of interviews to local regional governments and they The mine closure plans are unknown. So you may wonder how the most important economic, you know, sector of the region is not included in Prospective planning in terms of of when are these mines closing in terms of what's written in the in the titles mining titles another thing we Examine was the funding for sti and this is a very important question since How are these sti funds being used and if they have if they have been used at all An important thing here with sti funds is that they come from royalties and this is a carbon locking Indeed since we're talking, you know funding a sector with royalties, but that's a broader discussion So for now they're being funded with royalties But the the royalties that go for sti are very limited compared to other Sectors like transport that you see on the right side On the left side the figure is showing how sti funds that are budgeted for these regions Are not, you know, taken advantage of in the full in the full sense So in in la guajira sessara mcdalena Mainly 50 60 percent of this fund has been You know taking benefits So it speaks of The capacities of local actors to present and execute sti projects And in best investments of sti in these regions go to well known and low risk areas like human capital and information and communication technologies and you may wonder Human capital is a low risk area. Is is it well known? Well in terms of project management, it is since you as a governor of a region You want to have a project that it wills to you know for educate people you say well, I'm going to give 30 grants So you get graduated and you give us the the you show out the the certificate and you're done I mean we're probably it was approved. It's okay, but then you don't wonder Where are these people working? Where are these people going? So there's a limitation there as well and I have one more so The other axis is education innovation and experimentation and I want to go into more detail about the half time So basically the figure that you see in the here is where people is enrolling in la guajira in the region of la guajira And people is getting enrolled in traditional sectors economy engineering education But when you see the planning documents agriculture is one of the key bets And then agronomy for example 1.3 percent of enrollment. So people is going You know, it's it's not focused and there are no incentives for people focusing on the key bets of the regions Building on the traditional assets away from from related assets to fossil fuels Some questions here are how innovation policy can support other actors that are not represented in the innovation system Who are represented were traditional universities? Think tanks, but how communities for example that may have come with great ideas to support transition How are they being represented here? Um and some final reflections, um the potential of sti faces many challenges in these regions There's a need for more exploration and addressment of this There's a limited directionality coherence and experimentation towards the carbonization as you see The bet is on traditional sectors So there is it is undermining the the contribution of sti towards a just transition And just transition indeed might need a different approach of sti One that favors flexibility and broader participation of other actors So a key question that I would Ask you and leave you with this question is how are sti System and funding be developed in your regions in your countries and how are they contributing to decarbonization and just transition Great. Thank you Brilliant thanks Jose So um thanks to all the presenters there was a huge amount in there I'm not going to try and summarize anything in the interest of time But a few a few things that we've heard So we've heard from libo and paola about the global structural shift away from coal power Particularly following russia's invasion of ukraine and what this might mean for coal producing countries The number of countries phasing in coal is shrinking and china really dominates the global coal power landscape But many of the headwinds to coal power that existed before covet have been exacerbated Um and while the poor economics have made burning coal expensive Mining and selling it is still attractive and at some point these trends are going to collide And that's particularly going to affect countries in the global south Who will have an even more urgent challenge to achieve a just transition pal you gareth and jose have talked about the various interpretations and manifestations of the just transition with gareth Introducing us to the phrase structural adjustment has gone wrong Sorry structural adjustment gone wrong and the wildly misplaced idea that australia is kindly helping countries like india to lift people out of poverty Um and then pow you talked us through a range of different coal commissions and how they've operated and how the Commission figures need to be big but not too big and then finally jose has just wrapped us up With some thoughts on columbia's national and subnational sti policies So i'm gonna i think we've probably got time for two rounds of questions I'll take three at a time if you have a specific speaker that you'd like to address it to please do flag and we Can aim it at them So maybe we can start do we have a floofy box to use jesse's words from this morning. We have we have an actual microphone Okay, yeah, thank you very much for all the very interesting presentations So I think from what we we heard from you There is definitely this space a coming that that Transition is is open for grabs in terms of when that that demand collapse may occur and how we deal with it And especially how we deal with it in those countries jurisdictions that export and do not consume the the coal and the question from my perspective is In those countries where the energy transition is not truly energy transition but more Transition away from rent dependency amongst others And do you think that the exercise of these multi stakeholder bodies or coal commissions or we can find endless names for for those? And open an opportunity to to structure Almost a societal debate on how to go beyond The reliant or depending on fossil fuel exports perhaps not necessarily restricted to coal But also to others Do you think that this high level exchange between stakeholders would open that that societal debate or do you think other possibilities have Would fare better This is a comment for garith a fantastic presentation. I'm seeing Lots of parallels with oil exports in canada and I think it really reinforces that the politics of supply side Climate policy are very different in exporting countries than importing countries But I also wonder whether we should be mindful that supply side and demand side climate policy can be substitutes So we see albinese is saying, you know, we've got this new climate act And by the way, he's keeping the you know the coal mining union In the the labor camp by not doing anything about the exports julia gillard announced her carbon tax out of coal mine And said don't worry There will be jobs here as long as there's coal in this mine and we see similar things in other exporting countries so I think it's Something those of us interested in supply side climate policy need to be attentive to Hi kekuna from lingo, I have two questions. One is about the high prices that we see because um The last speaker rang a bell when you said there is no plan for closing the mines We work in lingo. We work on accelerating the fossil end game And the coal end game as I see it has been associated with huge stranded liabilities So you you go bankrupt and You leave a big mess behind. So my question to all speakers is Whether you see any opportunities for using current high prices to You know capture some of that and set it aside for what's coming afterwards. That's the first question and the second question is I'm thinking about the global picture of fossil fuels and Chinese coal is Big big chunk So I wonder if any of you would like to comment on whether like you have any ideas or suggestions what what what your findings? How they might be relevant for accelerating the phase out of coal in china Great. Thank you. Um, pal you do you want to take the first question about um Exporting countries and whether the structures of coal commissions could work there Um, thank you very much. First of all, um, I would say that commissions are definitely highly suitable for countries that are coal producers So basically countries that are just consuming coal I think there's no big need for commissions because it's just about how many renewables can you ramp up, etc So this is fairly simple the big challenges come with just transition workers mines re cultivation, etc So this is all for coal producers Um, so therefore those definitely work I think it is important then the question like who to include within the commission I mentioned this within the german coal commission that for example the global south wasn't included So basically we had a lot of discussions in how far we should close mines lignite mines in germany earlier on or not because We are worried about the villages. They will be devastated But we did talk very little about the hard coal that would be imported which would come from columbia or south africa Where people would also be basically lose their homes without being compensated. So therefore this was a bit like Um, not touched upon with it like this. So therefore, I think that commissions might be a tool But it's a question how you set them up. So it's not automatically but basically then you would have to include people Um, I think it is important that if any kind of country speaks about how to enable a just transition Within the country that they come up with a strategy like what is their base case? Like how do the coal regions evolve and for that case you have to then clearly state I expect this amount of coal to still be used domestically and I expect this other volume either to be exported Or expected to vanish or something at least to be clear about it And then the question is when we speak about compensation payments that they should be conditional to Climate compliance in some kind of way and then I personally wouldn't say that we should use tax money To basically ease the just transition for a region if the coal is not then staying in the ground But it's just being shipped off to someone else because then I would say Um, you can either then close certain parts of the region Therefore you get compensate But then you really close those down and there are others which you just shift from domestic consumption to export But this you just do as a market incentive, etc. So therefore you don't need our help Um, so I think this is this important. It's important to talk be honest about this and I will Leave it here and thanks power you and garrus. Did you want to come in on the question directed at you? And and any other question that you think is rather I mean it's in Australia that I yeah, I just say yes, I agree. I think it's an issue Um, the the question about high prices and could they be used to kind of help facilitate transition? They should be able to theoretically The problem is political So it's this question of whether you can introduce a super resources like a super profits tax or something like that In Australia the history says no Because the in the the minerals council and the fossil fuel producers Basically took down a government over that In the not too distant past But I think The interesting thing about the australian case before I hand over to others is that the australian government's approach And the coal miners themselves is that we're just the seller will sell while ever there's people buying So if you can in exert pressure on the people buying you can exert indirect pressure on the producer The problem from a just transition perspective with that is that it's going to lead to a disorderly transition So I kind of if I had to a crystal ball, I'd say yes There'll be a transition in australia at some point But there'll be kind of dragged kicking and screaming and that the actual communities Will be the ones that end up paying the price I'll pass to others Thanks gareth and we're short on time. So libo and then maybe paula. Do you have any thoughts on china and how they Have the coal transition that could be accelerated Yeah, thank you. So first on the on the high prices That part of the presentation. I didn't have it, but I think we should we should try to at least get countries to think Use this crisis use this crisis at least there's some money coming and how can you use it In the best way possible in terms of minds In just transition in general the problem I mean jose say this the governance structures are terrible in those destructive regions in many countries. They really have No way of I mean if you pour money into them But they don't have the governance structures and the capabilities Probably what's gonna come out of that is not gonna be very robust or very fair or So so that's a big problem. So it's part of the answer I guess like trying to get more money from these high prices to Contribute to just transition, but in the way how you do it. It cannot be just pouring Billions into the coal regions as it has been the case in Germany because the governance structures are very different In those so I think that's a point on the high prices At least for global countries in the global south and in terms of china It's a very complicated country. We've been trying to work on them, but it's very hard to to understand them Because they're experimenting a lot So they're very unpredictable in terms of where they're going So a lot of those power plants that you see that they're building. They don't even use them at Profitable sort of a utilization rate. Some of them are retired after 20 years or something like this, which is Not at all what you see in other Electricity markets where coal power plants operate for much longer at much higher rates. I don't know if you've seen a They have all these ghost cities. They're turning down their their with dynamite all the All the buildings they are doing the same with some coal power plants So it's very hard to predict where china is going in terms of coal What we know is that they're piling up now on production Quite a lot even though the the consumption is decreasing. They're piling up a lot on On production. So what's very relevant in terms of that? We don't think china is going to be an importer of coal for or a significant importer of coal for anyone And that's the largest market same thing for india. They I mean Let's see if they can do it, but they also don't want to import so that is even Clearer risk for all the exporting countries this big exports market might not be there Yeah I'm going to make a supplement for the china cases and thank you for your questions. So in my perspective like We're going to look at this china coal phase out problems in different terms Um in short term and mid term. It's very hard to For china to phase out coal Because yeah, I have uh Like previously displayed the major core rebounds Major drivers behind the core rebound. Uh, I think there are several important reasons that is The rapid economic growth, maybe not after the pandemic And the energy access and the energy affordability in china is pretty bad And then we have a whole electricity market stability Depending on the coal. So it's Uh difficult for china to phase out that quickly we might depend on coal for very long term and Yeah, but um well We still consider that it's Possible in a long term for long term years for china to phase out because we can see that We are trying to find out some alternative green uh energy like uh wind energy and solar energy to uh to be alternative for the fossil fuels and we are Uh doing quite a good job, but uh, we still have a long walk Yeah, I think and Maybe yeah, I think that might answer your questions. Thank you Thanks libo Jose, do you want to wrap us up? I'm afraid we've run out of time So we're not going to be able to do any more questions, but please feel free to grab everybody Just two two two points on on the issue of mine closure and and revenues And in colombia Coal mine coal companies. They say they have a mine closure plan, but the problem is that nobody knows it Right, so That's that's a big problem for regional planning, right? um And and again building on what paola just said the the when you don't know where your main Economic sector is going what is left for you is being prepared for the worst And there's where revenues come right? How do we invest revenues in a strategic way in new sectors in? Uh, of course aligned with sustainability and I'll leave it there Thanks, Jose. Uh, yeah, sorry for running out of time everybody. Hopefully you enjoyed that as much as I did So a big thank you to the presenters and to you guys for coming along