 Welcome back folks. Right now we have Tim Ord on the line. Tim Ord publishes a news that are called the Ord Oracle. Tim can you hear me? Yeah I can hear you fine. Thanks for having me on. Absolutely thanks for joining us. So you know we have a pretty intense week and an intense day. What are you making out of it? Well I sent you over two charts. Hope you got it. I got them right here. I think you let's see. We're looking at the one that has the first one I'm looking at has the weekly spy support in the VIX and the second one we're looking at the 10-day trend. Yeah I sent you another one right after that. Hopefully we got the right chart. Okay let's pull it up here. Anyhow the bottom window is a VIX and anything below 17 usually the VIX is in a trending mode and this is a weekly chart and I could have gone back a lot farther but anyhow at any time the shaded pink areas are times when the VIX is below 17 and so I shaded those areas on the market and we've been below 17 since basically beginning of April and we're still below 17. We're coming in around 14 so we're in a trending market but there's some I guess breaks in the dam I guess you might say is starting to show up and I circled there on top when the weekly S&Ps, this is the SPYs, gets above the upper Bollinger Band. Last time that happened was back in November, about November of last year and a little bit, market's going up too fast. It gets too far away above the upper Bollinger Band. Usually the market gets near a stall area and we think we're probably going to do that. Is there a top today? Not necessarily today but probably sometime next week but it's not going to be at top of any consequence. Not like we had like January of last this year where the market peaked out and went down all the way into or actually last year, 2022, December of last or yeah, it'll be January of last year, market went down in October but we're looking for, we're probably nearing some sort of a consolidation phase is what I'm saying because the market is getting too exuberant here so when the market on a weekly timeframe closes above the upper Bollinger Band, you're getting close to some sort of consolidation but can flip to the next chart. Yeah, we're looking at the 10 day trend right now. Yeah, it's a 10 day trend. Now this is a daily chart and again the bottom window is the VIX and I shaded that in pink every time it's below 17 normally you're in a trending market and again we've been trending up since April. Well now what's happening, we got the next window up, it's a 10 day average of the trend and mark the times in blue or blue lines the time they got down to 0.8 or lower and at minimum it goes into at least consolidation and we have back in 2021 I have two circles on the SPYs there and I showed you when it got below 0.8, market at least stalls a little bit, goes sideways and probably then starts going up higher again. Other times if you get on a down market it marks significant lows. It picked out from 2022, it picked out looks like about the April the August, say August high, picked out the March high of last year, a couple of highs in January and February there. Well if you do today's analysis of the trend closes right around 0.56 or 0.6 right now and you know right around 0.6 you're going to close on the 10-day trend around 0.8 today. So it's kind of in the danger zone so it kind of with the weekly SPYs above the mid-bollinger or on the upper Bollinger band suggesting consolidation and you got a 10-day trend down around 0.8 you know the time of the rally is kind of getting exhausted here and today we're up decently advanced clients actually pretty strong but I think we're going into some sort of at least a short-term exhaustion move probably not today is going to be the high but I think sometime probably early next week how big is the high you know the worst case scenario I didn't draw a trend line there but you got quite this for around 0.420 which is quite what he's down it's no guarantee we'll reach that but that's possible target to the downside but in general this mark is going to end up higher this year we're probably at minimum are going to get back to the old highs back up around that 0.470 area that was reached in January 2022 but you know sometime maybe next week see a high maybe the week after the latest and probably see a worthwhile pullback that could last into the July 4th timeframe a lot of times holidays can mark highs or lows sure I thought this year could be a high I think it turned out to be a low or something I don't know but right I'm getting that go ahead no I'm you know so I'm looking at the first chart too and that's what I was going to ask right you can see you know in November of 2021 when it when it really passes that ball in your band right you get maybe a month of consolidation and then a and then a pullback or do you foresee something like that happening too we're kind of just consolidation till going higher with what we see right now yeah I think we'll see I don't think we're not heading into a major high but I do have a you know a support area listed there I thought we make it down supported for 20 now scare everybody get everybody worried again and probably start up from there it's kind of hard to take out you know how this thing is going to consolidate but do you think it could look similar to what happened back in November of 2021 where it kind of flipped sideways for a couple of weeks and we got a decline right you know Marcus actually had a you know it's been running up since you know basically March right I mean yeah it's as a decent rally you know it's not going to go up forever so no certainly and definitely over the past at least you know month of trading I mean it's gone out gone up substantially right so yeah it's kind of a pretty pretty pretty substantially and so yeah but you know so far if you look at the bottom window again I mean the VIX so far is not showing any danger here and usually the VIX rises before the top actually happens there's another interesting indicator today mark six days up in a row if you go back and check history when the markets up six days in a row like it is right now it's markets stays up today which probably most likely it will if you're up six days in row the mark will be higher within five days a 3% of the time so if you're doing odds you'll see a minor high probably you know even today or tomorrow and mark may pull back but you should make a higher high within five days a 3% of time so at least at worst today's high is going to be tested probably sometime next week and that'll depend what the VIX does on on this minor pullback will be a minor pullback nothing that's significance but you know if you shake up a little bit a little bit and the market does pull back and the VIX goes up and market rallies again to test you know say today is a high as just I'm not saying it is but say we go back up and test wherever the hive is let's say or tomorrow and the VIX does not make a lower or it gets back above 17 that would actually add quite a bit of confirmation that the market is at least making that worthwhile high that's what I'm kind of looking for absolutely fascinating Tim thank you so much for joining us what you just said to about the 85% chance that's that's that's interesting I would you know if that is the case I would love to check that out Tim thank you so much for joining us right thank you take care now bye folks we'll be right back