 All right, what's up guys, this is Alex from Xtrades back to you with another weekly trade ideas list. Hope everybody had a wonderful trading week and also a great weekend, got your brains rested, time to get back to work. So this week, we do have a big CPI print coming up, let's say every CPI print and data release is pretty large, it definitely has the potential to move the market huge. And I'm hoping, you know, it's not going to be too volatile or anything. Hopefully, you know, the trend will continue down for inflation and be good, you know, for America as a whole, although I would like to see the market pull back a little bit. I still do want our economy to do good. So we'll go over the economic calendar and then also go into a couple of setups, individual names and also the indexes. So Monday, August 7th, we do have consumer credit at 3pm. This definitely doesn't usually move the market, so I wouldn't pay too much attention to it. But you never know with economic data, so we'll have to see about that one. I personally haven't seen this move the market. Tuesday, I would say just the whole set of inventories is probably the most important. This definitely has the most potential to move the market, maybe the Fed speakers, but I don't know about Barkin or Harker. They really don't move the market too much. So we'll have to see about that one. I would just pay attention to the wholesale inventories. All right. And on Thursday, the big day, we have our usual initial jobless claims. We also have the CPI. So we have the consumer price index core CPI CPI year over year core CPI year over year. So this is the big day. Looks like it's expected to the medium forecast is at point two for core CPI. CPI year over year is going to be 3.3% for the median. And then core CPI year over year is going to be at 4.7. And then Friday, another inflation gauge. So we do have the producer price index, also core PPI, PPI year over year, core PPI year over year and consumer sentiment. So Thursday and Friday, arguably the most important. Definitely going to move the market. And then, like I said, maybe Tuesday, the wholesale inventories can move the market. All the others, not exactly sure, because I personally haven't really seen it move the market other than the Fed speakers, but that's always a hit or miss. Jerome Pile was definitely the most important one. So we always listen when he talks. But that's for the data. It's going to get into our individual setups now. So this week, I do just have three shorts that I'm watching. So we'll be looking at all puts this week for these three individual tickers. Obviously, I'm still willing to buy the dip on Spire QQQ. Just depends on the camera or the pivots, which reset every single day. So I can't really give you an answer now. If I'm going to be looking to buy the dip yet, we'll have to see the pre-market. If it's pulling into S3, it's holding up S3 or breaking out of R4, I'm always willing to go along on the market for a day trade. So we'll have to see how that goes, but can't give you an answer on that right now. In terms of the weekly time frames, the indexes are looking like a trend is shifting. So we'll get into those after we go through the individual tickers. And our first one here, we're looking at FTX. So you can see we've got to test one. You've got to test two, you've got to test three. Failed test three, actually. Now breaking the trend line, I would say that it has a little more room down to the regular rally-based rally demand zone. You can maybe even call this a drop-base rally. But it looks more like a rally-base rally, because it rallied initially, you know, made the higher low, put in higher highs, made a nice base that it bounced previously off before. This would probably be the price target, just because it's the closest thing. There's no other demand zones. This is where it bounced previously. So we'll use this as a price target. You could call it, you know, 257 flat. It's precisely 256.39, though, if you want to get technical, that's where the demand zone comes from. That's where our base candle comes from right here for the rally-base rally demand zone. So FTX here, looking at puts. You can see the slow stochastic is also crossed down. So that gave a signal, looks like Wednesday. So just crossed to the downside on Wednesday. So just a couple of days ago, and it looks like the momentum still has a little bit more room to go down. Obviously, this would go invalid if it, you know, just reclaim the trend line or totally ignored the trend line break. So just keep an eye on that, FTX, looking at puts. All right, next we're going into arc. So this is similar to FTX. The trend line break is just a little bit more clear. We got to test one. You could probably count this as a test two. You got to test three. We got to test four. Test five, pretty much failed. Also pulling into 45, 43 previous resistance. So if this holds up, obviously it's probably not going to break down anymore. So what we want to do is make sure it's staying under 45, 43 before trying to do anything. So we probably need to open under this on Monday and also stay under it. Because if it reclaims, it could just hold as a back test like I've showed you in other videos, just a classic, you know, breakout retest. It holds up and tries to march higher. So you do have to be careful with that. You want to make sure that we're getting under the 45, 43 and also staying under it. So I'm going to be looking at puts on this, but first I want to make sure it's staying under. So just make sure it's staying under it first, maybe opening under it before trying to go short. If it's above it, just, you know, maybe leave it alone. But the trend line is breaking. So that's why I'm looking at puts on it. Because naturally the technicals do look a little bearish. You see, there was a supply zone up here, came up, tested that, rejected off that really hard. That would have been a great entry off this rally-based drop supply zone. Really nice rejection, just about perfect. Plated down to the trend line. That would have been a great trade. So now that it's falling a little bit, that's why you want to be careful, take into account the back test level at 45, 43, which comes from over here. Then up circling with my mouse, just make sure it stays under that. If it can't stay under that, we do have another demand zone down here. So that's the demand zones, another rally-based rally, just a rally-based rally demand zone. So that'll probably be the price target for puts. If it got down there, it's going to be about 44 flat. The arc here looking at puts, just make sure it stays under the level that we covered at 45, 43. All right, next we're going into Google. So this one's going to require a trigger level as well, kind of like arc. We want to make sure it's getting under 127, 42 first. It's going to be Thursday's low. We'll go ahead and add an alert. We'll name it breakdown. And we'll be looking at puts on this as well for Google. Just because we have a big gap below, now I got the slowstoke asset crossing down. It's had a great run-up. It's likely time for a little pullback. So it doesn't have to fill up the whole thing, even though it's the likely scenario, as gaps usually do fill at least 80% of the time, either up or down. We do want to catch this gap. So in order to do that, we need it under 127, 42 first, where we just set the alert. If it can get under that, stay under it, close under it for a day. It's likely going to continue lower. So just keep that 127, 42 in mind. And it could be looking great for puts. And that kind of like goes in line with falling back within the resistance. You can see there's a peak right here at 129,04. Comes from right here, June 7th. We're back under that now. So that was kind of the breakout point. And now we're back under the breakout point. And now we want to see it under 127,42, which is the most recent low from Thursday. And that'll enter the gap. So Google here looking at puts, just make sure it gets under the level first, make sure it stays under before trying to enter. Now it's going to give you good confirmation that way you're not, you know, feeling, what if it bounces? Cause if it holds up this low, as it could just bounce. So you want to make sure it gets under that first. Same with arc, you want to see under that level we covered. All right, next we're going into the spy. So last week, I believe we pulled up the SPX actually, just because the spy's daily candle on Friday was all messed up. So we're looking at that inside bar. Let's actually pull up the SPX instead. All right, and here's the SPX. So last week we were focused on this inside bar. This was the inside bar low. This is the inside bar high. I'm pretty sure we set alerts at the high or low. I usually want to see like a 30 minute bar break over it or break under it to confirm. Once we got this candle on Wednesday, it broke out of the range of these three days. So inside bars obviously it could stay in over the next couple of days like this. Like you got Monday stayed within Tuesday stayed within and then Wednesday, it finally broke down, gap down out of it and that resulted in a big flush. And we closed under the previous one week low that we covered. Let me get rid of these lines real quick so we can go to the one week. So this was the previous one week low that we marked. This is what we wanted to see for an actual reversal to the downside. And we see that we got it and we closed under it. So this is actually the first time that we closed under previous week lows probably since March, I believe over here. So we got a close under previous week low right here. And then we got another one right here from this week. So this is a close under this week's lows. This was a close under this week's lows. And those are real reversal signals. That's how you tell if the market's pulling back. And we finally got that. So it makes me think that we could have a signal here. Obviously it's the first red bar. So it's not always law and it's not always obliged to just go lower. I mean, it could have a bounce back test before trying to go lower. So you do want to be careful even on the first red bar but I just want to show that the signal is there. We're under previous one week lows. So this is our previous week low. This is where we closed. And like I said, first since March, we've been growing up for a good little minute and none of these bars all the way up here closed under the previous week low at all. If you look at every single one, no close, no close, no close, no close, no close. Slight break under the previous week low but ended up closing up here. No close under previous week low and so on so forth. So you just see why in the one week why we haven't gone down. So now we might have a signal. So pay attention to it. Maximum, I could see us down to here which is going to be 4450 for SPX about another 28 points lower. That's pulling into these demand zones. We got a rally base rally demand zone and you got another base right here. So you got two red base candles. So this area is pretty demand stacked. Obviously it would have to break under this probably back test before going lower. And then your next demand obviously under that all the way down here. It's going to be about 4166. So this is all free space. Really no demand zones on the one week. This all demand probably is going to try to act as support but really can't put us lower than 4450. So this area is pretty demand stacked and you got to be careful with that but there's still just a little bit more room to hit that 4450. And then I'll probably try to hold up or bounce about there. You can see the Solista cast stick on the one week also starting to cross down. It's kind of been in some mumbo jumbo BS over here. Really no signals at all. This is probably the most clear cross down that I've seen in a couple of weeks here. This one was kind of a clear cross down but there's only one red bar never took out the previous week lows. This one more clear taking out previous week lows. I do feel like it can go a little bit lower. Like I said, 4450. And I had to see what it does around then. I don't want to call it any lower than that because we do have this demand stacked area. So that's where the SPX look for it to go. Maybe just a little bit lower. It looks like there's also a little daily gap right here. So that aligns perfectly with 4450. So there's that little daily gap right there. It's going to be like 4460s, probably down to 4445, 4450. So something like that. And that goes straight into the one week demand that we were just looking at. So aligns perfectly with it. Also got a huge red outside bar here. Looks like the futures are trying to bounce a little bit though. So it would need to obviously reclaim the trendline on ES. I can show you that real quick. So here's the futures. You can see we're up just a little bit, 0.26%. Nothing crazy. Holding these back test zones right here from July. It's previous resistance. I think it's new support. And just like I have drawn here, it would need to get back on track with the trendline, hold it, close over it, then it can continue the trend. Obviously, if it's not able to do that, it could just fail the back test here on the downtrend line. And then it would need to break under 4493 for the futures. And that would take it down lower. And probably to the 4450 that it shows you on SPX. So that's just a couple of ways to look at it right now to watch this trendline. And then you do have this further out trendline all the way from March. You got a test one, test two, no test three on this one yet. So it makes me think that eventually this trendline is going to get tested for a test number three. And that's where usually the trendlines get validated after test three. That means they're officially a trend. So we'll see how that goes. If it get under 4493, that's pretty much a given. It's going to take it down to the trendline or the 4450 on SPX. So that's for the S&P. Looking like it could reverse honestly on the one big time frames. And on the daily, it's still holding up this little level. So just make sure before trying to enter puts or anything like that for maybe just for a day trade, wait for it to get under 4493. And that's a pretty good flush zone. Otherwise it's still trying to hold up here a little bit. So if you are going to trade puts, you do have that one week bar that I showed you on the SPX of flashing your reversal signal. If you buy time 30 to 60 days out, not a bad idea just because you have a pretty good reversal signal here. And if there's any more follow through, that would be great for puts. All right, next we're going into the QQQ. So this week, it's actually breaking this trendline. It's a little test one, you got to test two, you got to test three failure. Never tried to hold up here. So this trendline could be a little questionable. You can maybe draw like this too. This is probably the most ideal. Cause you got to test one, you got to test two, test three, clear bounce off of that. And then finally trying to break down. It's also breaking this 37285. This is our back test level that we covered before. And you actually could have played off of this. Which is what we were looking for. Honestly, we're looking for a little short-term bounce at least off this 37285. It would at least try to hold up here. And you can see in this daily bar right here did have a decent little bounce. It's nothing crazy. We go to the 15 minute here. You can see multiple reactions to 37285. We got a reaction right here. And they got two, two of the penny reaction right here. So definitely marked these levels that we go over in our weekly charts because they work pretty good. Now we're breaking under that. And you can see we actually closed under it. Similar to spy and the SMP, the one week bar is also taking out previous week lows. Probably the first in a while. I haven't looked at how many or how long ago it was for the last one week bar got taken out. But I'm guessing it's pretty similar to spies. And you can see we also have these little gaps below. It's this only like kind of solidifies my idea probably for a little pullback. Obviously if it reclaims over the 37285 plus the 37434, which comes from this little low right here on June 24th. If I was able to get back over that structure still in place and it'll look fine. And it'll probably still go up. So in terms of moving averages, we closed under the daily nine and the daily 21, which is crazy because we've been trending over it for a little while now, even remove this trend line. So this was the last time we broke the 21. It was actually a fake out all the way back in April. We have a slight break under the 21 here in May, but nothing crazy. So thing is you want to look for multiple closes under it. It's usually going to validate your thesis if the 21 break is bearish and we'll need to see that. So as long as we see multiple closes under it and not just one and then gapping back over like you see right here, this 21 break should be reliable. And I'll probably try to go just a little bit lower or fill this gap at least, maybe head to the daily 50 EMA at about 364. I'm not sure if that'll just happen overnight or in one session or anything. It's probably going to take a little bit. This is back over 17, which is good. So volatility is coming back just a little bit. So obviously not over 20 yet. So the volatility is not super crazy, but it's getting there. So for Monday, as long as we're opening under the 372.85, which is the previous resistance, I feel like it could go lower. As long as we're staying under that, it's likely it could go lower and also staying under the moving averages. But you can see we got a solistocaster crossover. This happened on Wednesday. Obviously right after the trendline break that we just went over, trend is looking just a little bit short-term bearish. Obviously I can get wiped away with one green day. So we'll have to see. For right now it's looking pretty good. I mean, we got one, two, three closes below the trendline. You got two daily bars closing below the moving averages that I just showed you. And so far there's just one bar closing under the 372.85. So just want to see us staying under that and you can definitely go lower. Otherwise, if it's able to reclaim just look out for upside. All right, next we're going into the IWM. So that's what we agree. Just focused on this demand zone and also this supply zone above. And I pretty much mentioned this was your trading range and that would be it until one of them breaks and you could see exactly why. I mean, I haven't been able to project any higher than the supply and not any lower than the demand. And it's doing exactly that. I mean, it's been tradable for day trading and stuff but if you're a swing trader, this is not good. So this is a rally-based drop supply zone. We've been over this the past couple of weeks but I just want to show you again rally-based drop supply, rally-based rally demand. And that's what's causing this little chop range because we haven't been able to break below this. And we haven't been able to break above this. So obviously it's still running up demand pretty good. Every time we get down here, it bounces. I could even show you on the 15 minute. Every time we get up into supply, new sellers show up, sells back off, gets back down to demand, bounces again, got up to supply again, sold off. And that's just off the one day zones that I just showed you. So these are definitely valid and this is definitely the reason why we're in shop is because of these two liquidity zones. If you definitely want to mark them on your chart and you can definitely day trade off of them as for swing trades, just nothing really here of substance. If you wanted to try to go further out with calls or something at demand, you could. But I feel like this is not great risk to reward. I feel like I'd rather get it down at 189.24 for a swing trade right here and right here just kind of focusing on day trades. I mean, put scouts when it gets up here, call scouts when it gets down here. You could say the break over supply is a completely different story. You can start looking at longs to the upside but I mean, it's had a pretty good run. So market might need a breather and the financial sector might need a breather as well. Some of the banks have been doing pretty good after kind of having that dead cap bounce with the regional bank scare, all the banks selling off. They were able to get a pretty nice bounce and run up pretty well. So could be the reason why we haven't been able to breach this. Your guess is as good as mine. So I would just focus on the two supply and demand zones. Yeah, your rally based drop supply, rally based rally demand. That's the reason why we're staying in this range. So just keep day trading off of that and wait for one of them to break or break down, break out one of them. And that'll probably give you a pretty good signal to start looking for a different trade. But right now this seems to be the pattern. So just keep following it. All right, next we're going into the VIX and we finally closed over the 1553 level that I've been pretty much focused on probably the past month or two in all the videos. I've mentioned we needed to see a close or two over this 1553 to validate that the VIX could go higher. Cause you see the last time I got to 1553, you got a close right here is just below 1553, a close right here was at 1480s. And then another at 15 or so, even though they got briefly over it, it wasn't able to close over it. And the reason why we wanted to see a get back over this is because this area from May 23 is such a big shoot up area for the VIX. If it's able to get back over that and close back over that, there's a good chance it can repeat and head higher, likely to 20. So you got a close here at 1610 and another close here at 1593. So you got two closes over 1553. And actually on Friday dipped all the way down to the 14s and then shot back up. So it was pretty crazy, totally random, but it did close back over 1553. And you can see that this 1553 is just a velocity zone. Once they got under 1553 here, really big drop. Tried to get back over 1553 with a big shoot up again. Market actually dropped right here. And then it recovered. So bounced again. And then look at the violence under 1553, just a huge 3% dump on the VIX. These are just massive moves in terms of percentage for the VIX. Went all the way back down to our 2021 low that we have on the one day chart that we go over every week. Held it up there. Literally ran right back over 1553 again and just huge move and the market dipped really bad. So you can see the 1553 is just a crazy area. Once it got back over is insane. Once they got back under is just a big drop. So that's why we have been focusing on this so much. We also have a new resistance that I've pretty much been looking at this 1708 just because they rejected with this one candle. So I saw the 17 rejection just went ahead and marked this. So we'll need to get over that 1708 and close it over that next. And that'll take you to 1831 and then that'll take you to 20 after that. Oh, looking a lot more alive here. Your slow stochastic was giving you a signal all the way back Friday, July 28th. So your slow stochastic was curling up. You had our 1273 bottom that we've been covering. We just need to see the close over 1553 in order to feel more bearish about the market. And we did get that. And now we have that one week bar closing under previous week lows on the S&P. So it looks good for potential reversal for bears. So now our focus to the 1708 for sure. Make sure it stays over that. And then you want to be careful with this 1831. The reason for that is because it rejected over here in May, you got these two arrows that I marked just two little rejection points. But I would say that these 20s are probably the most massive, especially 2008. And you can see exactly why. I got multiple arrows put right here. Multiple rejections of 2008. You got a fail close over 28 right here. Another fail close over 2008. I just want to show you why I'm marking these levels because they were inflection points at some point in the past. So that's for the VIX, just watch 1708 especially. And it looks like it could go a little bit higher here. Just needs to close over that 1708. All right, next we're going into the DXY. So last week we were focused on this 102 and the downtrend line. I'll show you the downtrend line overall here. This is the downtrend line all the way from 2022 to current pretty much mentioned. I didn't expect it to go higher until it broke out of the downtrend and over 102. I did that for a day. Even reached as high as 102.80s. I was looking for 103 flat at least. And it didn't reach that before finding resistance. So we were close on the breakout target. Just didn't hit to the exact penny. But now it's coming back down here. You can see it's holding up 102 tonight as a base. It's also holding the back test area of the downtrend line. You probably even draw the downtrend line like this too. You got a test one, test two, test three. And this is most recent. So we can mark that. Obviously if it's holding up 102, I feel like it's just gonna come back up to the downtrend line probably, maybe reject about there. But that's as high as I could put it. If it can break out of that, I got the same 103 price target again. And that would probably be bearish for the market. Even though it's crazy because the market still pulled back massively even with the dollar down and the VIX was down huge at one point. But both of them kind of bounced off the bottom. VIX bounced the most off the bottom. It went from red to green, DXY stayed red. So that was kind of surprising that the market pulled back even with the DXY closing down and red, which is unusual. Obviously it can still happen. The dollar being down is not a guarantee for stocks to be up. But just an interesting observation that it closed red and also the market's closed red. So just watch this 102. Could see a run up back to downtrend line if it gets under 102 and closes under that. That's likely just gonna take you back to 182, which is right here. So probably a pretty big flush zone if it got back under. So if it closed under 102 right there, probably try to back test and then flush back to 182, which is this little support right here. Maybe even just 101 or so. So that's the video guys. Hope you guys enjoyed. Make sure you like, comment and subscribe to our Xtrade YouTube channel. I'm gonna go get this chopped up, edited and sent out. It's getting kind of late. So I wanna make sure I get this out at a reasonable time. Get some sleep, all that good stuff. So I'm gonna go and get this edited and log out here. Love you guys.