 Good morning and welcome to the weekly market update with me, David Madden. Today's date is Monday the 28th of September 2020 and the time has just gone 9.54 British summer time and it's been a fairly positive start. Actually it's been a very positive start to the European equity trading session. We're seeing decent gains in Europe across the board. The FTSE is doing quite well. It's up over 1.4%. It's actually probably the underperformer. We're seeing stronger gains in the Eurozone. But keep in mind, at the back end of last week, we didn't have quite a large losses racked up on Eurozone equity. So it seems that we're seeing a bit of a reversal of fortune. There's several reasons playing into the mix into why we've had a very positive start to the trading session today. I mentioned how we had a negative end to the equity trading session in the Eurozone at the back end of last week. But on Friday we had a very strong finish on the US tech sector and the US tech sector has been kind of largely influencing not only the likes of the S&P 500 in the US but it's also has had a fairly big impact on European market. So we had a strong finish in US tech stocks on Friday. Also feeding into the US story was the Democrats are looking to put together a coronavirus relief package of $2.4 trillion. So they've reduced the size of the package they're looking to put forward. The Republicans will still probably turn around and say that's still too large for us to agree. But the fact that the Democrats are seen to be making or this talk of them making some sort of compromise points suggests that things are heading in the right direction in terms of political negotiations over the weekend. We've heard China poses some industrial profits figures. They're fairly respectable for the month of August which is the fourth consecutive month of growth. So as a way to the argument that the Chinese economy is rebounding from the kind of lockdown earlier on this year in the last 24 hours 48 hours. It's been announced according to the New York Times. President Trump basically paid very little tax on the years running up to him being elected as president of the US. Of course the US president has denied us saying this is fake news. It doesn't look good for Mr. Trump but at the same time it is necessarily bad for the financial markets because Mr. Trump does have a history of whatever this negative news circulating him can often talk about other things such as tax incentives or spending plans or what have you as a way of distracting the voters and the traders from the negative news that surrounds him. So this could lead to the US president putting pressure on Republicans to try and broker a deal with the Democrats or could even be a case of Mr. President talking about what he's going to do when he gets reelected next. So it's necessarily a bad thing for the financial markets and it would necessarily be an awful thing for his campaign trial given that he had there's not a kind of baggage surrounding him in 2016 and it didn't stop him becoming US president then. So the tax situation is unlikely to probably really derail his chances against Joe Biden. Speaking of which I'm mentioning on the week ahead how he has a debate versus Mr. Biden tomorrow. As always what I'll do is I'll run down to the major events of the week at the week ahead article. We can see here on the week ahead article can be found on our website seamsomarkers.com under insights and then under latest news and analysis. So we're talking about the big events UK EU trade talks. They're going to be they're going to be resuming again. They're going to be in focus. It's the usual story that we've heard from David Frost. The EU's chief negotiator negotiator in the last UK's chief negotiator in the last couple of days said that there's been relatively good progress has been made so far but we're still not quite there yet. It's usual story. Both sides are talking tough about walking away or about drawing lines in the sand in terms of deadlines. But you know tears will be paying close attention to what's going on and any signs of a no deal scenario being wound up. It's like a pressure on the British Pound. Looking ahead to tomorrow. Again Ferguson have filled your numbers out. We also have the first presidential debate between President Trump and Mr. Joe Biden. We also have third quarter figures out from Greg's on Tuesday. We have first half figures out from Boohoo the online fashion crowd. On Wednesday we have Eurozone CPI numbers. Flash CPI numbers. This is going to give us a taste for demand within the currency block. Also on Wednesday we have the final reading of US second quarter GDP. On Thursday we have the very different manufacturing PMI reports to the major economies of the world. We also have the Japan tanking survey. This gives an update on the state of the economy. On Friday we have the all important US jobs figures. US non-farm payrolls. And speaking of US non-farm payrolls, my colleague Michael Houston is going to be hosting a webinar, a live event on the day in question. Friday the second of October, beginning at 13, 15 British summer time, you can sign up for it on our website on cmcmarkers.com under insights and then webinars and events. As always, I'll do a quick run through of the major indices, the major currency pairs and the major commodities. So as we can see here, we had a decent rebound from the lows of late March into early June on the foot to 100. But ever since then, we've already been speaking, pushing lower. Although we are seeing some positive signs. For example, we can see here that the lows of last week were bracing their thereabouts in line with the lows of early September. And if you can hold above this metric here in around 5,800, 5,767, if you can hold above that zone there, we could see further gains being made, we could head back up towards the 6,000 mark. And if you go beyond that, we could then be looking at targeting the mid September high in around 6,126. So the trend has been to the downside, but we haven't seen lower lows yet. So but if we do take out this metric here, and we do have a decent break below 5,767, that'll be significant because that'll be a new multi month low, and it'd be a new lower low in the kind of downward trend of the last few months. So if we do break below that, that could put us on track down towards this area here in a 5,660. And a move below that could take us back down towards 5,600. Taking a look at what's going on over in Germany. So it was only in the beginning of the month that we actually have a multi month high, the highest level since February. But since then, like other markets, the German market has come under a fair bit of pressure. On only on Friday, we fell to a level last seen in early August. So recently, things are kind of the barest trend is kind of been shaking a bit. But, you know, we're still above this red line, the 200 day moving average. And while we can, we're also above this yellow line here, the 100 day moving average. And I said to you while we hold above those metrics, it's likely at the wider upward trend is going to continue. If you press on higher from here, we could run into resistance at this blue line, the 50 day moving average at 12,919. Notice how on a few occasions it actually has support in the past. So the possibility it could act as resistance in the future, although there are no guarantees. And if you go beyond that, we could be heading up towards the big number of 13,000. And a move beyond 13,000 could then put us on track for the for the highs of early September, north of 13,400. If you do it on the other hand, have another move lower. If you take out the loads last week, that could take us back down toward this red line here, the dirty moving average, which comes to play at 12,176. And notice how it acted nicely as support in late July. And once again, if a metric has been important in the past, it makes it more likely it'll be important in the future. But as always, there are no guarantees about that. Looking at what's going on over in the US, we had a decent upward trend, upward move and the lows of March into September, we had its highest level since, you know, the kind of the pen since February since the pandemic was setting in. But we haven't seen the same we've had a lower low, a lower high, a lower low, and we're moving up again. So the broader trend is very much to the upside. And while we hold above the this yellow line, the 100 moving average at 26,627. And actually, that's a support on a few occasions recently, if you can continue to hold above that metric, it's likely that the wider uptrend is going to continue. If you press that higher here, we could be retaking this blue line, the fifth of a moving average. And if you go beyond that, we can then be heading up towards 28,000. And beyond that, we can be looking towards the kind of mid September high of 28,366. But if you do have a size of break below the 100 moving average, we can then be heading down towards this zone here, kind of 200 moving average, this red line here at 26,260 down to the zone of say to that down to 26,000 itself. So that that 260 point zone could likely support should we see a move to the downside and a break below that could take us back down towards the early July lows in around this zone down around here in around 25,418. Looking at the S&P 500, which has been in the best shape of the last because with the S&P 500 pushed higher between late March and into early September, it actually hit an all time high. So but like it's kind of pert the Dow Jones, we've had a lower low, a lower high, a lower low. And once again, we're rebounding. And notice how also the S&P 500 is also found support from its 100 moving average, this yellow line here on a couple of occasions at the back end of last week. So while we continue to hold above that metric, it's likely that the wider upper trend is going to continue. So if you continue to move higher from here, we could be looking at retesting the fifth of the movie average at 3,358. And beyond that, we could head up towards 3,400. And then if you go beyond that, we could be looking towards 3,429. If you do have a decent break below the fifth of the movie average, we could be looking heading to 3,200 200 itself. If you go below the one of the movie average, that is, if you go below, and if you move below 3,200, it could take us back down toward this red line, the two movie average 3,109. And of course, if you go below that, you know, 3,000 will be the next big number to keep an eye on. Taking a look what's going on with the euro versus the US dollar. So at the beginning of the month, Euro dollar hit its highest level in over two years. But we have seen a fairly aggressive turnaround in the US dollar. And in fact, the US dollar index basically hit its highest level in over eight weeks, not for the back in the last week. So we have seen a turnaround in the dollar. Therefore, we've seen a weakness in Euro dollar. The broader upward trend is very much to the upside. But the last few sessions, we have been moving lower. If you continue to move lower, and if you do break, say below 116, it could take us back down toward this level here, the 100 movie average. And that comes into play in a one spot 1488. You know, we saw a bit of consolidation, and even the resistance coming in coming from the metric, back in back in March, back in May rather. So if you break below that, we can then be heading back down towards 114. You notice how it acts as both kind of assessment consolidation, the kind of 114 area back in July. It also acts as resistance in early, in early June. But keep in mind, the wider trend for the last few months is at the upside. So if I do look to kind of head on higher from here, we could be looking at retesting this blue line, the fifth movie average in a one spot 1789. And if you go beyond that, we can then be looking at heading back up towards the 120 area. Take a look now at pound dollar. Like I said, Sterling is going to be focused this week in relation to the chatter about the negotiation between the UK and the EU in relation to trade, only at the beginning of the month because of the dollar weakness. The pound is at its highest level since December. But we have seen a lower low, a lower high, and another lower low. So once again, we're kind of we're off the recent lows. And if you continue to hold above this red line here, the journey moving average in that one spot, 2718. If you could hold above that, we could be looking at heading back towards 129, back towards the fifth movie average in a one spot 3021. We can see how the fifth movie average acted nicely as resistance not too long ago. So that metric could act again as a resistance in the near term. And if you go beyond that, we could then be looking heading up towards kind of one spot 32 area. If the market turns over on itself, and we take up the lows of last week, we could be heading down towards 126. And if you go below that, we could be looking heading down towards the lows of mid July in one spot 2480. So we're talking about the US dollar. There's been a fairly strong inverse relationship between the dollar and gold recently. So the strength of the dollar has it has it gold because gold is trading dollars. So all of a sudden, a stronger dollar makes it makes it more expensive to buy by gold. So gold, which is an all time high in early August, obviously had a quite a bit of a wobble in the middle of August was trading sideways for a number of months for a number of weeks, has been pushing lower. And you know, very recently, if you take a look at the lows of last week, in around one spot 1848, we're currently not too far away from there at the moment, we're currently on 1850. If we can hold above those recent lows, you know, we stand a chance of the kind of the broad rubber trend continuing heading back up towards 1900. If you go beyond that, we could be looking at targeting this blue line, the 50 moving average, you know, actually nicely in support in early September. And the 50 moving average comes into play at 1, sorry, 1,943. And if you go beyond that, we could be looking at heading up towards 1,973. If you do on the other hand, have a decent break below last week's low, could take us back down toward this zone here in around 1800. Notice how there's a fair bit of consolidation in the general zone in the middle of July. So keep an eye out as a potential area of support should we have a break lower in silver, sorry, silver, gold. And lastly, take a look at what's going on on the oil market on Brent crude oil, November contract. So the broad trend for the last few months has been very much to the upside. We had a multi month high in August, the highest level seen since March. But the overall concerns about the possibility of a second wave of COVID-19 really kind of knocked the oil market in the kind of early part of the early and the first few weeks of September. All this scene is a good kind of parameter for global demand. Concerns about COVID-19 shook the demand concerns. But we have recovered a fair bit of the ground that has been lost the last few, the last few sessions. And ultimately, if it could hold above the lows, the recent lows in this area here, kind of late, early to early to mid September, this zone here in around 37, sorry, apologies, and around 3975 there, there about some, if you'd hold above those lows there, it's likely at the kind of broader trend could continue. And if you move upwards of here, we could make it trackling this blue line here, the fifth city move the average in a 43 spot 82. If you go beyond that, we could make it trackling 45. And a move beyond that could take us up towards the highs of late August. If you do have a decent break below the lows of mid, early to mid September, it could take us back down toward the lows of mid June, mid June in that in this area here in a 37 spot 93. And a move below that could take us back down toward this zone here in around 36. That concludes this week's video. Thank you for listening. Have a good trading week and good luck.