 I'm your host, Bill Sharp. Our show today, the Kim Trump Summit, Substance or Fassade, and joining us from Kiel, Germany, where it is 5 a.m. in the morning, and we really like to thank you for getting up so early, is U.S. Navy Retired Captain James Finnell, who was the former director of intelligence at U.S. Pacific Fleet. He also recently testified before Congress on Asian affairs. Welcome to Asian Review. It's great to have you. Thanks, Bill. It's great to be here. Great. Well, maybe to start things off, could you guys display that cover of the Economist Magazine just to focus our audience? This is this week's Economist. The cover of this week's Economist, Kim Jong-un Won. Do you see there the North Korean flag on both sides of the U.S. flag and Kim Jong-un shaking hands with Trump? And I think that will help us set the stage for today's conversation. Thank you very much. Well, let's sort of set the stage here a bit. The Penguin John Declaration, there was a sign between President Moon of the Republic of South Korea and also Kim Jong-un of the DPRK, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea. It ended the war, supposedly, brought in a new era of peace, and it's still ushered in an era of denuclearization, supposedly. What's your reaction to that? I think, honestly, it's one of those things, having spent almost 30 years in the Navy and in the Pacific to see the leader of North Korea come down to Penguin John and meet the leader of South Korea and shake hands was something that I probably thought I would never see. So I think on one hand, it seems incredible that we're at this point in time in history where we're seeing such iconic shifts in what we have experienced and lived under for the last 50, 60 years. Do you think there's any substance to it, or do you think it's just show? At this point, it's still, I think, a little bit too early to tell. And we seem to see some level of effort from North Korea that they haven't ever done before. So they seem to be willing to make that effort. The question remains, is this just, as you said, a show, or is this really a serious effort to try to turn a corner in the direction of their nation's trajectory and the one person rule that controls everything and doesn't allow in the outside world? Is this the beginning of the new dawn? And I think we just don't know right now, but I think we're going to find out very quickly. I don't think it'll take another 50 years for us to figure this out. What do you think motivates Kim Jong-un, what motivated you to have this meeting with Moon? I think, in my opinion, I think it's the sanctions. I think the economic situation in North Korea is so dire with the sanctions that he's being forced to come to the table. Now, there's an alternative view that says, no, it's really a position of strength. He launched a series of missile tests and nuclear underground tests, unlike any, like his father, his grandfather, and he may feel that he's brought the world to his doorstep to negotiate because he's got a nuclear weapon capability, and now he wants something in return for that acceptance into the world stage. But I'm not sure that that latter view is correct. Do you think this could lead to a peace treaty between the North and the South? It seems the South is pushing for a peace treaty, perhaps more than the North. It seems that way. I think President Moon would like to have something to show for these meetings, something that's in writing that says, okay, we're going to move back from the war. We're going to say the war is not there and the armistice is over. I do think that President Moon would like to have something like that, which I think is a natural thing for him to want to have, and considering the position that so many of his people are in. We talk a lot about... Being so close to the border. We talk a lot about Kim Jong-un, and he's so prominent in the news we sometimes almost overlook President Moon. But President Moon, I think it should be said, has very strong Korean ideas. His family originally came from North Korea, so it's almost like he has a vested personal interest in this. Yes, and I think that's... It's clear by the amount of effort that he and his government have put forward to try to push this effort forward, the shuttle diplomacy that he's had, his ministers' mistake and the turning off of the loudspeakers and visible demonstrations that he's willing to negotiate and compromise to get this deal, if he will. And it probably should be pointed out for the benefit of our audience that he was the former chief of staff of a former president of South Korea, President Roh, who was very pro... A very strong pan-Korean mindset. Correct. On the other hand, President Roh had a... It was somewhat anti-American. Do you see President Moon sharing that same mindset? Well, I don't think he's publicly insinuated or demonstrated or suggested that, but clearly given his experience, as you said, with his former president and his views, it may be something that he harbors there that eventually that if there's a unification or some kind of agreement that U.S. influence on the peninsula may not be necessary. But again, he has never, to best of my knowledge, articulated that, and it's just the opposite when he... in reaction to the summit when it's announced that there may be ending the quote unquote war games, it was said that he called a national security council meeting the Blue House and they want to make sure that those games or those exercises aren't there mitigating South Korea's ability to defend itself. That's a very interesting point. Maybe we should pick that up just a little bit later, but I'd like to move on now to the summit, the Singapore summit between President Trump and Chairman Kim. What did Kim want? Why did he want to meet Trump? Why did Trump want to meet Kim? Well, I think I can answer the latter pretty easily based on the president's own statements a few days ago in the front lawn of the White House when it was asked by a reporter, why did you legitimize a brutal dictator by saying nice things about him? And President Trump was very quick and clear to answer because I want to prevent a nuclear missile and nuclear bomb hitting your house, the reporter's house, and killing your family. And if somebody who spent most of my life in Hawaii and considers Hawaii an age of my home, I kind of understand that. I see what you're saying. I see what you're saying. What does Kim want? What's his real motivation for stepping out of his shell there in Pyongyang? Well, this again is the dilemma of what is really motivating him. It would be nice to believe that he's motivated because he sees that the world is including China who signed off on two UN Council, United Nations Security Council resolutions to impose sanctions on North Korea that these sanctions are making Kim realize that his country cannot survive without the support of the rest of the world. He just can't live in isolation. So we're hopeful that that is the reason that he's come to the table. Again, we don't know that for sure yet. And so it's possible that he's now feeling, hey, I have a, you know, I've got a chip in the game of life and I can now play with the big boys. And here's what I want. I would like this, this and this. We will see. Is there a matter of him preserving his own survival? Well, I've read some analysis that suggest that, you know, some of the senior folks inside the North Korean regime, older generations are dissatisfied or concerned about the young leader and therefore maybe he's feeling a bit paranoid and wants to go around them and ensure his own survival by bringing some prosperity to the people. You know, I understand what you're saying. It seems I remembered that just before he left for Singapore, he cashiered three high ranking generals and they were obviously not very enthusiastic about his meeting Trump. It sort of reminded me of when Nixon went to Beijing in 1972. There was a lot of turmoil within the party. There was a lot of people that didn't want Chairman Mao and Premier Joe to meet with the president of the United States. And there was a lot of political inflighting at that time. And this situation in Pyongyang reminded me very much of that. I have the same sense of it, but it's a bit harder to really get that real fidelity because it's just so hard to see inside the regime. True. I think anybody that's ever paid attention to North Korea would quite agree with that. It's probably the most secretive country in the world. And even people who spend their whole lives focusing on nothing but trying to understand Korea are sometimes left adrift, indeed. Some people have suggested that although Kim Jong-un rode on a Chinese plane to Singapore and he had conferred with Xi Jinping in Dalian before making the trip to meet Trump, that his motivation was to seek more room for maneuver to become less dependent on China. I think it has to be said that he's not had a very good relationship with China. But would you buy into that? Yeah, I think it's, again, we're reaching into the dark for some assessments, but clearly the fact that Kim had not been to China at all in his reign since 2012 and then finally went, as you said, two times here in the space of a few months as this summit approached. I mean, there's two sides to that story. The first side is why hadn't Kim Jong-un gone to Beijing much earlier? Why weren't they closer? Why hadn't more senior delegates from President Xi been in North Korea? So clearly there was a distancing that Kim Jong-un had compared to his father, with the People's Republic of China. Yet on the other hand, he was there, he was meeting with him, and so he went on, as you mentioned, Chinese aircraft. So there is this relationship that we characterize as the lips and the teeth. I mean, they were that close. But clearly that he seems to be wanting to say, I'm my own man, I'm in my own country, and maybe I can get a better deal and better things through the United States. Or there's a third alternative, which is the one that worries me the most, which is to suggest that there's an ultimate goal here, which is to drive the United States off the Korean Peninsula. And that Kim and Xi, while they may not be close, are working together towards that end. That's a concern to me, too. And on the previous part of your analysis, you know, maybe North Korea is following a pattern that every other country in Asia is, is playing China off against the United States, United States off against China. I'm told we need to take a break. We'll be back in one minute. You're watching Asian Review. My guest today is Captain Jim Finnell joining me via Zoom from Kyu in Northern Germany. And we'll be right back. Are you tired of sleepwalking through life? Are you dreaming of a healthier, wealthier, happier you? You're not alone. And that's why thousands of people tune in each week to watch R.B. Kelly on Out of the Comfort Zone Tuesdays at 1 p.m. Make a change, get the help you need, and stop sucking at life. The Army, we're going to go live. Hello, it's 1 p.m. on a Tuesday afternoon, and I'm your host, R.B. Kelly. Welcome to Out of the Comfort Zone. Hi, everyone. I'm Andrea Gabrieli. The host for Young Talent's Making Way here on Think Tech, Hawaii. We talk every Tuesday at 11 a.m. about things that matter to tech, matter to science, to the people of Hawaii with some extraordinary guests. The students of our schools who are participating in science fair. So Young Talent's Making Way every Tuesday at 11 a.m. only on Think Tech, Hawaii. Mahalo. Welcome back to Azure Review. I'm your host, Bill Sharp. My guest today is retired U.S. Navy Captain Jim Finnell, joining me via Zoom from Kyu in Northern Germany. While we're talking about two things, we talked about first about the President Moon, Chairman Kim meeting, and then Pan Moon Jong, and the Pan Moon Jong Declaration that came from that. And then we moved on and we were talking about the Kim Jong-un President Trump meeting that just took place in Singapore. And we have a few more things to talk about in that regard, and then we have a couple of other things we'd like to get in today, depending upon how time goes. Okay, well, there's a lot of criticism about the statement that came out of the Kim-Trump meeting, and that was that it really didn't say anything. Okay, we're going to think about denuclearization, and we're going to look for bodies of U.S. KIAs from the Korean War. No talk about a peace treaty. There's no talk about verification, no talk about timetable. It seemed to be really pretty hollow. What was your view on that? Yeah, I think the conventional wisdom is, as you've described it, Bill, but I would take a different view, which is to say that this President, this was not a summit to solve the problem. This was a first meeting, and so as we discussed at the very beginning of this broadcast, we discussed that how incredible it was, the fact that even the Presidents of South and North Korea were meeting together. How much more so was it incredible to see the President of the United States and the North Korean leader actually in the same room? And so, and to see President Trump's style and his approach to business in his previous life and the way he's run things since he's been in the White House, I think it was a really a get-to-meet and greet meeting with, as you may characterize, something that's not very substantive in terms of the paper. But it was paper. It wasn't agreement. There were some statements there, and President Trump's been very clear in terms of saying, we will know soon if Kim Jong-un really is serious about denuclearizing North Korea, even though the paper said denuclearize the Korean Peninsula. So while there's potential there for mismatch and cross-communication, I think everything that I keep hearing the President and the Secretary of State talk about is the denuclearization of North Korea. And so, just like we were talking before the broadcast, President Trump has now authorized his trade negotiator to look for another 200 billion dollars in tariffs on China because of this China not willing to work on the steel and aluminum arenas. So I think President Trump was likely to have a very sharp reaction if in the next six months or less that we don't see real substantive efforts by North Korea to go after denuclearization of their nation. If they don't do it, I think we may see a return to my buttons bigger than yours and rocket man kind of comments. That's a very interesting comment. Do you trust the North Koreans? Say that again, Bill. I missed that. Do you trust the North Koreans? Based on their previous pattern of operations, no. So, and I think while the President says flowery words at summits to be polite, I think there's an underlying sense of realism with him and certainly with leaders like Secretary of State Pompeo and National Security Advisor Bolton and certainly the Secretary of Defense. Their past record doesn't really give you much reason to trust them, does it? No, but if you have your boot on somebody's neck and they're starving for food and resources, people may change. It's the old, if I twist your arm behind your back and say cry uncle, you may not want to say uncle, but if the pain gets too bad, you may say uncle. A lot of people say, well, Kim Jong-un, once you were talking about removal of the sanctions, other people went somewhat further and said he wants economic development. And then he said, you know, we were so impressed with his ride around Singapore. But to me, it seems that I don't know if I personally buy that because it seems if you go in for wholesale economic development, you build new centers of power. And these new centers of power will have the potential to challenge your rule. And so I don't think Kim Jong-un is so much interested in this massive economic development, as has been suggested. But what would you say? I would say that he must be at some point given his experience of growing up in Switzerland and going to school there and this trip to Singapore. And it's obvious interest in the West. I think there's a part of him because he's 20 years younger than I am. I think there's an assessment or he may have this view of, well, we could have some nicer things in this country. How can I get that? But again, as you suggest, he's not going to open the gates and say, okay, let's bring in developers and transform the country and make it like South Korea and overnight. I don't see that happening either. I think it'll be very selective. And I think, to be honest, I don't think President Trump, I mean, he offered that up as a vision in that video. But again, his focus is on denuclearization. So if they denuclearize, if they denuclearize, but don't take a huge package of investment, I don't think our president would care. Oh, that's an interesting comment. Well, okay, we hit upon this a little bit earlier in the show, but I said I'd like to come back to it. And this was the suspension of the joint military exercises between the United States and South Korea. And President Trump, this really pulled this one out of his hat after his press conference. Apparently, no one in his administration, Secretary of Defense, Secretary of State knew that he was going to pull this one out. And it seemed to upset the South Koreans quite a bit, as well as the Japanese. Do you have any insight on that? I don't have any personal knowledge of the president's decision making on that. I mean, my initial reaction, having participated in almost three decades of these exercises, I was a little bit concerned initially because it just the announcement sounds a certain way. The statements about calling them war games instead of joint military exercises. The statements about how much it costs and these things. Those are areas where I may not totally agree, but again, I get back to the, it seems very clear that the president is using everything in his power to try to convince young Kim to denuclearize North Korea. And so he's willing to offer up different possibilities, different options to get Kim Jong-un to offer up denuclearization and follow through with that. And then when you start being, you know, taking on serious view of what the president said, while we may get rid of or delay or cancel full legal or ultra-freedom guardian or key resolve, that does not mean that U.S. rock military training will cease. And I think that's the task now for the Secretary of Defense and his staff with the South Korean Minister of Defense is how do we continue to ensure the readiness and combat capability of our joint force. And I have no doubt that that will continue. It just won't be publicized in such a way as to be an irritant for these dialogues over the denuclearization. That's an interesting perspective. Well, we have about one minute left. Let me just pop this question into you. This always happens. It seems it might be a little bit unfair to hit you with this question right at the end, but maybe you could give me a real brief answer. Does President Trump really appreciate the U.S. rock alliance? I think he does. I think he does. But I'll use the example of how he allowed the South Korean negotiators to come to Washington and make the public announcement of the summit. I think that's a very significant honor that President Trump gave to the South Korean leader, President Moon and his people, which is to let them be on the forefront of announcing the U.S.-North Korean summit. Great. Well, thank you very much. I'm afraid the clock has worked against us again and we're out of time, but I really want to thank you for getting up so very early on a cold morning in northern Germany. And it'll be great to see you back here in Hawaii in the near future. So thank you very much. Thank you for watching, and we'll see you the next time.