 Hello everyone. Welcome to Options with Doug. Streaming live daily on Bookmap Discord and the Bookmap YouTube channel at 1.30 p.m. Eastern time. And before I go further, I need to go over the disclosures. General disclosure, all Bookmap limited materials, information and presentations are for educational purposes only and should not be considered specific investment advice nor recommendations. Risk disclosure, trading futures, equities and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. And as a reminder, my presentation and the Options with Doug chatroom in Discord is focused on options, order flow, the impact of options, markets on stocks and futures, and the influence of market maker hedging flow on price action. I have a two-step process for trading and the first is planning and that is based on positional analysis. And I look at how market makers and traders are positioned in the options market and how those positions change from day to day to help develop a thesis regarding expected range and volatility for the day as well as a directional bias. And that is different from what a lot of traders use technical analysis or fundamental analysis. I think this is a new way of looking at the market that provides a significant edge. And the second step in my process is execution. And I look at real-time order flow and book map and real-time market maker hedging flow and Spot Gamma Hero to confirm my thesis and for setups, entries and exits. And on topic questions and comments are welcome, both in Discord and the Options with Doug chat channel as well as YouTube. And I'll be watching both for questions and comments. All right, what I want to talk about today is, first of all, the economic data. There's a big report this morning and then some data coming out tomorrow as well. Then I want to do a quick review of yesterday in the S&P 500 and take a look at how traders were positioned ahead of the data. And then we'll go over our position analysis and then finally look at some setups. Okay, first of all, the economic data. And it's a little bit easier to see here on this financial juice website. This is all the CPI numbers. You know, it looks like there are a variety of month over month, year over year, you know, just a variety of numbers. But anyway, the point is they all came in in line with expectations. So in most cases a little bit less than the previous number and also in line with the current expectations. Okay, and there was something else that looked like the S&P 500 drop quite a bit a few minutes ago. And I'm just looking here to see if I can see anything. This is what I'm talking about this kind of sharp drop right around. Let's not show me the time. So somewhere around 120 something like that. I don't know. Does anybody know if there is any news or is that just a, you know, there's a lot of Fed speakers out now. So anyway, that was the news this morning in line with expectations a little bit lower than the previous numbers. And then tomorrow the last, thanks Smoke 027, no news. Okay. And then the last economic data for the week is the consumer sentiment at 10am tomorrow. Now one thing I want to do is review yesterday. We'll just and then we'll we'll talk about more about I'll talk more about how that played out today. So here's a quick review from yesterday and I posted these charts in discord. And this is again yesterday prior to the data. And this is the SPX for the entire day from the from the open to the close, showing that traders were buying puts. So they were buying SPX puts. And I posted that the traders were actually buying SPX puts that expire on Friday. So that was the the highest volume was the 13 Jan. That's tomorrow, the 3800 strike. And that's for SPX. And same thing and spy traders were buying puts. And they were buying calls too. But the the puts outnumbered the calls. And then finally, this is the put call impact chart. Again, this is for yesterday in spy, showing that spy was slightly put dominated from about 300 on up. And what that means is that traders were long puts, market makers are short puts. And not significantly, but they you know, nonetheless, they are they're still positioned that way. So this means that market makers in a negative gamma situation, that's put dominated negative gamma, they have to sell futures as price drops. And more importantly, if price increases, they can buy back those short futures. Okay, so that's tomorrow. Just a quick summary of of how traders were positioning ahead of this. Alright, so now let's take a look at our position analysis for today. And here's the S and P 500. Yes, futures. That's in book map. There are a couple of other charts that I want to take a look at. First. And this is thinkorswim. And this is SPX. And if you recall yesterday, we were looking at the implied volatility for for today. And for tomorrow. And I don't recall the implied volatility number, but I was looking at the the implied move. So I hope you can see this. It's kind of small on the right on the upper right corner of the screen. The yesterday the implied move for today was about 78 points plus or minus 78 points. So the volatility was extremely high. And now you can see if you can see this, the expected range for the remainder of the day in SPX is plus or minus about 17 points. And then tomorrow, the expected move for the entire day is a little bit less than 38 points plus or minus 38 points. And that is that number was also up around somewhere between 78 to 80 yesterday plus or minus 78 points. So there's been a substantial drop in implied volatility. And here's another chart in thinkorswim. This is this is kind of a big picture view showing and I've talked about this trading range that SPX was in for some time from around 3780 on the low side to 3890, 3900 on the high side. And SPX has pretty firmly broken out of that range now broke out retested and is now moving higher. And it looks like the next target up is the 4000 call wall. So again, this is SPX. I'm looking at a 20 day one hour chart. So this is a big picture view of what's going on with the S&P 500. All right, let's take a look now at book map for a closer picture of what's going on today. And the the levels that are in play are shown on the chart. I have two columns of notes. The first is spot gamma cloud notes. And these come directly from spot gamma. They're updated daily. And these are basically SPX levels, like this 3950 and the call wall 4000 call wall. And they're also combo levels which combine SPX and spy and convert that to an SPX number and then convert it on this chart to an ES number. And then I also have my own column of notes that shown here in the sea levels. And this is a spreadsheet that I fill out every day. I'm showing the big round numbers for ES and also key spy levels. And that is the 395 volatility trigger. And one thing to note right now spot gamma is still adding 25 points to SPX to come up with an equivalent ES number. And I'm I'm showing that number is closer closer to 20 points. So they need to need to update that. But that you know just keep this in mind. And then I'm just using the spot gamma levels. Since they're updated automatically in the in these cloud notes every day. So the key points to note here are this reversal. Oh, just before 10am Eastern time. And I'll look at a number of these reversals. There were some great, great long setups this morning. And one thing to note here. First of all the shift from all of these pink dots to green dots. And I'm looking at this this area right here. The shift from large pink dots to green dots. That's so market sell orders. And then this these large iceberg orders come in. And let me zoom in on this level. And we can see more detail about what's going on. So note. First of all, the book map provides such clarity. So here, this dark blue to pink line shows that's cumulative volume delta CVD showing aggressive sellers. And also the downward sloping yellow line shows stop orders. So this was a stop run. And then notice the iceberg shown by this light blue line. And these are iceberg orders trader large traders use these to hide their size. So notice the notice the large numbers here. 3000. And that is 35 different executions. And here 4,638 executions, huge size. And when I was zoomed out, the total was over 9,000 9,300 something like that. Stop run aggressive sellers into large traders waiting with their iceberg orders. And we'll look at a hero in in in a few minutes and see what was going on at the same time. And that started this run higher to zoom back out. And then the the level and play right now, or target in play is the call wall SPX 4000. And remember that should be at about this level 4,020. And we can go back to the we can go back to another SPX chart and see this. This is a one minute chart showing the same levels. And notice the reversal right down to the zero gamma level. So the zero gamma level has been a key level today. And you can also notice the here the session volume profile showing the and also the purple line purple line is the point of control. Also showing the concentration of volume at that level. Okay, so that's a kind of a quick summary of the S&P 500. Again, the levels are shown on the charts and shifts in levels. There were a couple of shifts higher in levels that I look at the key gamma levels. And the first were the volatility triggers for SPX and spy and just a minor shift higher and the volatility trigger for SPX from 39 10 to 39 15. And that is spot gammas proprietary gamma flip level where gamma flips from negative below to positive gamma above. And that will change how market makers have to hedge. Below negative gamma, they're trading with price direction above and positive gamma, they're trading against price. And that tends to reduce volatility above and increase volatility below. And then the volatility trigger for spy jumped up from 389 to 39 15. And then the volatility 395. And then for spy, there was an increase in the call wall. Yesterday it had dropped down to 392. And now it's back up to 4 10. And I I interpreted that as bullish that traders were looks like they might have been taking longer term long call positions or positioning higher. And then also the QQQ call wall dropped down to 280. And the key gamma strike went up to 280. So gamma for QQQ is really concentrated at that 280 level. Alright, let's take a look at the S&P 500 gamma charts. So there's the absolute gamma levels for SPX and spy. So there's the put put wall for SPX at 3800. And that is the strike with the largest net negative gamma, not really on play today. And there are some additional levels of put gamut the at the round numbers, the 50s and the zeros. And then the 4000 level remains the key level for SPX. And that is both the call wall. And that is the strike with the largest net positive gamma. And also the absolute gamma or key gamma strike. And that is the strike with the largest absolute gamma. So that is SPX. And again, right now it looks like the 4000 level is the key level to watch. And here's spy. And there's 380. That's the put wall. And that is pretty clear the highest net negative gamma. And just to remind everyone, this is the zero line here. And below the line of the two lines, we're looking at put gamma or negative gamma. And above, we're looking at black lines or call gamma or positive gamma. So there's the put wall. The key gamma strike at 390. And here's the call wall. So it looks like there was some calls call gamma added at that level. And our price continues to increase. That level will will definitely be in play. You know, perhaps more long term. If the call wall remains up there. So that is the S&P 500 charts. And let's take a look at QQQ. So I don't often look at this, but this is QQQ, the absolute gamma levels. And you can see the concentration of call gamma and put gamma at that level. And that is the, that's the call wall and the key gamma strike. And here's the put wall down at 360. All right, let's take a look now at data. And this is something that I look at every day. And this is gamma notional. So this is showing the market makers position on the gamma curve. And note that the SPX gamma is now at 134 positive 134. And it was mildly negative yesterday at minus 16. And today, market makers, according to SPX are positioned in the positive portion of the gamma curve, meaning in this case, that they are long calls. Spot gamma assumes that traders are traders are long puts and short calls. Market makers take the opposite side of that position. So market makers are short puts and long calls. So this, according to SPX puts the SPX market makers position into the positive gamma territory and still negative for for spy at minus 551. But it did become less negative than yesterday. Yesterday it was minus 776. And today minus 551. So still slightly negative for for spy. And let's take a look at Vanna charts now. This is for SPX and showing how market makers delta exposure changes with changes in price, implied volatility, and that's shown by the green line, and then also changes it. And that's the Vanna effect and also by changes as time passes. And that is shown by the black line, which is the next expiration. And that's the charm effect. So this is a pretty neutral model showing that market makers don't have significant hedging to do in either direction. And for spy is still mildly negative. And this is showing that, according to this, that market makers will still need to sell futures as spy price decreases and they can buy them back as price increases and also as implied volatility drops. All right, so that's the position analysis. And based on based on all of this, my thesis for the day and remember that, you know, I showed at the beginning here how traders were positioned yesterday buying buying puts and SPX and spy also the slight put dominance in spy. And based on this and based on the the ACON data that CPI report that came out this morning, my bias was slightly bullish. And it would have been more bullish if SPX gamma no gamma notional had been negative and spy gamma notional would have been more negative, like previous CPI reports and FOMC announcements. If spy gamma notional had been minus 2000 and SPX gamma notional minus 500 or lower, I would have been more bullish. But based on the numbers, what I saw yesterday, what I saw today, and also implied volatility dropping today, I was mildly bullish. And I was looking for long setups. And one other quick thing that I want to note is I'm going to go to equity hub now and just take a quick look at SPX and spy and this is showing now that gamma notional flips to positive at 4000. And it's just mild, you know, close up into that level, where it shifts from positive put gamut at call gamma. And still, you know, comparing this chart with yesterday, still put dominance mildly for spy. And just a quick contrast with what was the situation two or three weeks ago. And we'll just take a quick scan through some of these charts. This is Apple AMD. And there's just a mild, mild put dominance. Take a look at Google. And this is opposed to several weeks ago, where there was a significant put dominance. And this is all looking at the the January expiration, except in a few cases, like Snowflake and Coinbase with it, this expiration Friday expiration. So the situation a few weeks ago was much stronger, much stronger put dominance. And that my expectation for the way that would have played out is similar to a an announcement of put that rally. So all of those puts apparently traders have been taking profits. Instead, if they had died, then all if all that put gamma remained, then that and expired on that Friday, the 20th, you would potentially look for a strong rally. After expiration, but that is that situation is no longer in play. So anyway, just wanted to point that out. All right, let's take a look at some setups now. First thing that I want to look at. This is a spreadsheet that I keep every day that these are the stocks and my watch list. And I track the key gamma strike from day to day. And I have two columns on the right there, the previous key gamma strike. And that is the key gamma strike from yesterday. And then the current key gamma strike. And that's from today. And I color code these green if the key gamma strike increase from the previous day. And read if it decreased. So one thing to note, these stocks right here, Microsoft and QQQ, both had rising key gamma strikes. So I was focused on Microsoft and QQQ this morning as a starting point. All right, let's look at setups now. And let me check for questions. And there's a question in YouTube. How do I apply the market maker move that is given on Thinkorswim? And I really don't. I look at that, but that's not something that I use. The thing that I show on my charts is I have a proprietary indicator that shows the upper expected move and the lower expected move for the entire week. And I mark those on my charts. Okay, so let's go with, take a look at ES first. And this is combining signals from SPX and SPY, both calls and puts, into one combined signal. And let's take a look, first of all, puts and calls. So traders were selling puts. So they were buying puts yesterday. And looks like they could be selling them or they are selling them now. You know, who knows if they're they're closing or not. But they're selling puts today. So as zoom in on this level, and I'm just looking at a one day, the one day rolling window here. So this is the full look back period. And what I was looking at this morning was this what I thought was a divergence. Let's go back to the total signal. And it looks a little bit different. And again, remember all of confluences that we looked at in book map. Let's just go back and take a look at that. So again, stop run, aggressive sellers, large, very large iceberg orders, almost 9400 iceberg orders executed. And then the aggressive buyers come in and are trying to move price up to the 4000 SPX 4000 call wall. And that was again, I thought confirmed by options trades shown in hero. So I thought everything lined up for a for long there. The only thing missing in my mind was some sort of key level to to lean against. Let's take a look at spy and spy a very similar chart. So I'm in a bit rising hero, price reverses higher. And let's go take a look at spy and book map. And there's the reversal higher in spy around the 393 level. And you can see all of the green dots showing the aggressive buyers coming in here, trend break, aggressive buyers coming in, buyers absorb sellers and price rises. So again, this is what I was looking for. Now there were certainly great shorts right from the open. But I was again, my thesis, my bias for the day was mildly bullish based on the the structure, the negative gamma traders buying puts yesterday, the implied volatility drop today. So we looked at that in the options chain for SPX, let's take a look at, we can take a look and confirm that with the VIX. Let's just take a look at the VIX chart. Some implied volatility has been dropping. Notice the first drop right at the data announcement at 830. Right here, there's the large drop right at 830. And VIX has been trending lower ever since then. And again, putting this all together based on positional positional analysis. I was bullish for the day. Let's go back to back to hero now. So I thought this was somewhat of a divergence higher is seeing hero rising price makes a slightly lower low, lower highs, lower lows, and then reverses higher as the aggressive buyers come in. Let's look at some other setups. Here's Apple. Same situation about the same time. And I've got into my notes to look at a 30 minute rolling window. Let's see if that adds anything at this point. Yeah, a little bit closer correlation. So this morning, traders started with a refined calls really pretty much from the from the open that of this large vertical line indicates a large block order and price response and traders start selling puts at the same time. Clear that up. Let's take a look at bookmap now for Apple. Alright, there's a question in YouTube. Oh, that it just disappeared about the spot gamma key gamma levels and all subscriptions for spot gamma include the key gamma levels. Well, actually I take that back for for SPX. But if you want the gamma levels for stocks, you need equity hub, which I believe is the the pro subscription to get equity hub. And then of course the alpha subscription gives you hero. So here is Apple, pretty similar chart. Quick drop down to 132. Notice all these small green circles. And that's a by sweep. So a cell sweep, the red circles, and then a big by sweep, the green circles and price reverses higher, turns back down around 1130, then reverses higher with the target at the 134, the initial target at the 134 liquidity level, and then a primary target at 135 liquidity there AMD. I need to end the semiconductors that I track AMD and Nvidia were strong were the best setups today. So here's AMD. Let's take a look at spot gamma to look at hero. Change this back. Look at AMD. Look at the morning puts and calls. And this is a clear call diversions. I'm looking at is the rising rising orange line. Traders were buying calls from the open. Even its price was dropping. And that means that market makers at some point, they're selling the calls and they have to buy stock to hedge their delta exposure. So really nice call divergent set up there in AMD. Let's go back to book map now. So there's AMD. Quick drop lower price versus this UEM is the upper edge of the expected move for the week. So AMD has been quite bullish this week trading above the upper edge of the expected move for the week. Reversal higher pullback to the 68 level and then a breakout of this consolidation or around 1145 with targets. First target at the liquidity at the 70 key gamma strike and then the second at the liquidity at the 71 call wall. Let's just see if there are any other levels in play today. And just the standard liquidity at each round number level. I'm going to take a look at the stocks that I have noted that if I have time I'll go back and look at a few others. Look at hero for Amazon and call buyers where in here they were selling initially and then started buying calls. Certainly not the divergence that we saw on AMD. Let's go. We'll go to book map take a look at Amazon. Pretty similar pattern to other stocks. Let's go to meta now while we're waiting on that. Let's go back to hero. And I thought this was a divergence higher. So heroes started rising price continued to make lower highs and lower lows and then reversed higher. Let's take a look at book map. Here's meta and a pretty pretty strong stock today. Quick drop down to the 132 level reversal higher and the first pullback entry here and then a break out of this consolidation targets at the first target at the 135 liquidity and 35 second target at the 136 liquidity. Next target at the 137 liquidity and now it's up against the upper edge of the expected move. And let's see if there are any other levels in play. And the 140 call wall may not get there today. But if this continues then that would that could be in play. Let's just go back and make sure everyone saw that. So what I'm looking at is the 140 call wall and notice all the liquidity at that level. So all those resting cell orders almost 281,000 shares. And let's go back to hero. Let's just break out calls and puts. So no clarity there. All right. The next was Microsoft. So this was the first stock that I was focused on again based on the rising key gamma strike. And this is not not as clear but hero rising. Let's just see. I don't think there was any additional clarity by looking at puts and calls. Oh, somewhat. So traders were selling puts. Let's go take a look book map. Microsoft sharp drop in the morning down to the 234 level. And then a quick reversal higher up toward the 240 call wall that's shown here. And again, note all the liquidity at that level about 56,000 cell orders limit orders to sell at that level. And there were quite a few pullback entries. Trend break pullback. Here's the first setup green dots next pullback. Another trend break pullback to the 237 level and then pullbacks all the way heading toward the 240 call wall liquidity level. So this is the stock that I was focused on this morning. Given the the rising hero, the increase in the key gamma strike from yesterday, that 240 call wall level above as a target. Let's go back and look at a hero zoom out to the entire day and bullish up to this point. And it looks like a large block order has come in and traders selling their calls. Alright, that was Microsoft. Let's take a look at Nvidia now. And this was the best setup of the day, I thought. And notice the clear divergence in the morning looks like from about 934 on trainers are buying calls. And I mentioned this a number of times. But as a stock trader, this is something you want to look for. When traders buy calls, market makers sell the calls and they have to buy stock to hedge their delta exposure. And they have to keep buying as price increases. They always want to remain delta neutral. So that's Nvidia. Let's go take a look book map now. So here is the reversal reversal hire just before 10 a.m. Just like other stocks. And let's I'm going to clear out these drawings just so you can see this a little bit easier. So you can see the trend break, all the green dots, all the aggressive buyers coming in with their market buy orders, and another little trend Collins consolidation break. So the first target was actually the 160 key gamma strike right here. Nvidia reached that pretty quickly, chopped around in that area, then broke out of that range at the 160 key gamma strike and headed up now to the 165 high liquidity target and continuing to attempt to move higher. So again, remember that semiconductors are strong today. The first was AMD. And now here is Nvidia. Let's go back to hero. Very strong hero signal options traders helping move Nvidia higher. Here's QQQ. Let's zoom in on the morning. And I noticed this divergence with calls as price was dropping. Traders were buying calls and they were also buying puts just maybe in equal numbers. It's hard to tell at that point. Let's look at the total signal. I'd say overall, slightly bearish, then shifted bullish, the total signal. Let's go take a look at book map now. So here's what I saw in QQQ this morning and the reversal hire around just before 10am. Note all the green dots coming in all the aggressive buyers with their market orders by market orders at the 274 C1 level. That's a combo level C1 meaning is the most significant level. And then 275 is a large gamma level and two is the next significant level. And notice also that these are the levels that I'm looking at right now. QQQ is trading well above its volatility trigger. And that is another bullish signal. And then finally, here's the 280 call wall. And remember, I pointed out the importance of the 280 level during the positional analysis. And there QQQ finally hit that target. So order flow confirming the hedging flow and with a clear reversal point and clear target at the 280 call wall for QQQ. Finally, let's take a look at Tesla. Let's go back to hero. Close this. Tesla zoom in a bit. So this looks like somewhat of a rare divergence with Tesla. Price continues to fall. Hero rises a little bit before and then price follows. And of course, if you wanted to trade short from the open, there was, you know, certainly a confirmation with hero and they started, started buying calls first. Okay, so just a quick wrap up. This is what I was looking for, you know, based on my positional analysis. Traders buying puts yesterday, the slight negative gamma in the S&P 500 spy specifically and dropping implied volatility today, meaning that those puts were losing value prices. You know, and I was looking for price to rise. And then as those puts lose value, market makers can buy back their short hedges. And then watching hero for for all these other stocks anticipating a similar behavior, some correlation. So again, I was looking for mildly bullish day long entries. And it looks like there were quite a few good setups. So that's it. That's all I have for today. Thanks for your questions and comments. Thanks for watching. And we'll see you tomorrow. Thanks again. Bye