 Hey everyone. Good morning. Lee Lowell here from smartoptionseller.com. Today is Saturday, May 14th, 2022. Welcome to another edition of our Saturday Synopsis. What do we do here? We look at charts. I show you what I'm seeing in the market and show you what I'm using to help me get into and out of trades for our newsletters. Chart reading, technical analysis is what I've been doing for the last 30 years. So I try to make these free videos to try to show you what I'm seeing in the market and try to help you up your game a little bit with your technical analysis if that's what you like to do. So sit back, give me a few minutes here and let me show you what's been happening in the markets this week. Here we go. We always open up to the SPY, the exchange-traded fund for the S&P 500. I like to use the S&P 500 as the broadest measure of the overall market, gives us a good handle on what's been happening. Now, yes, individual stocks will trade differently at times than the general market itself, but most of the time individual stocks will follow the general market because most of the time there's not a lot of breaking news on individual companies outside of their own quarterly reports every three months or so. That's where they're called. Earnings reports every three months. So outside of that, yeah, they may have news here and there about a new product, whatever, but most of the time there's not breaking news about an individual stock or company, so they'll tend to follow the general market. That's why we like to look at the indexes, follow the indexes for the most part to give us what the general mood is of the market. So where do we leave off? So last Friday, last Saturday when I made the video, we always do about a week's worth of looking at charts. So last Friday we were right around here or so and I had if we go back to that day, let me make sure that this is Friday, this bar right here was last Friday. Okay, so typically and on the charts here, these are daily bar charts. I look at the daily charts and each vertical line is one day's worth of trading and the top of the bar is the high of the day and the low of the bar, the bottom of the bar is the low of the day. Okay, so here we were last Friday at the end of trading last Friday and they said, you know, the market has been looking weak. Every rally seems to get sold, the moving averages, 20 day moving averages is moving lower, the 50 days turning lower and the 200 days flatlining here. So I said it probably looked like more selling, unfortunately, and that we really tried to, we need to have that one day capitulation washout to find the bottom. That is when everybody sells on the same day, the market gaps open, the market goes lower, everyone gives up, throw their hands up, we have this huge, huge, long one-day bar, volume spikes for the day, everyone panics and then that's exactly where the mark, the bottom shows up. Okay, so what happened this week as we move forward, we can see we had some more selling did come in, broke new lows, lower than here, lower than here, so we may do lows. Now, we had a nice bounce back Thursday it started, Thursday we had a pretty decent day down and then we started a rally back and then Friday, which was yesterday, Friday the 13th, here's the bar right here. We had a nice rally back. Now, is this the end of the bear market? Is this where the bull starts to come back for good? Hard to say. I'm a little skeptical yet only because all the rallies have been sold off. Now, I will admit we've had a pretty good, pretty good selling come in since the beginning of April or the end of March, just this long month and a half worth of selling right here. That's, that's gotten everybody down, everybody's feeling blue and not happy. They don't want to open up their portfolio statements because we know what we're going to see, just not doing well. So this has been a pretty long, exhaustive, sometimes ferocious and aggressive selling move over the last six weeks or so. It's hard to take. So we got to reach a bottom at some point. There's going to be value, stocks have come off so far that they reach a value point where at some point, the smart money, the big money, which is institutions, hedge funds, mutual funds, endowment funds, banks, they, they're basically the ones that really control the market. And when they see value, they're going to step up and start to buy. But have we seen the ultimate bottom yet? Or this, or is this just a, you know, a bear market bounce where we'll get these relief bounces, but then it gets sold off again. So I'm not convinced that we're out of the woods yet. This was a nice relief rally, it's called. We may even get a little bit more of a bounce, you know, Monday, Tuesday, next week, we may come up to hit the down trending 20-day moving average here. This blue line is the 20-day moving average. So we may get the relief rally, suck everybody back in, and then it gets sold off again. So not sure that's the case, but, but, but the way the market's been going, the rallies have been sold off. See, we get a rally here, sells off, rally here, sells off, a little bit of rally here. We may have some more room to run up, maybe catch up to the 20 days I just said, and sell off again. Not sure yet, have to watch and wait. Let's see if there's what the volume look like. Let me add the volume in here to see if there was any kind of spike in volume. See what you want to see on like a big move down is a real big spike in volume more than your typical average range. Like here was a pretty good, these two bars right here were spikes in volume. And let's see, typically on a spike in volume, you'll get a down move in the market. So this spike in volume coincided with this day, and this spike in volume coincided with this down move. So we haven't really seen, you can actually see the volume has been tapering off this past week or so, almost two weeks worth of trading. The volume has been coming off. So there's a couple ways to look at it. You can see it as the selling may be drying up on the downside. There's less volume, so the volume of selling may be drying up, or we just haven't seen that one day capitulation yet. Let me see if I could, I think I can show you what that looks like. So here was, this is a chart of Costco and I like to use it as an example. Back on, let me see what the date was here. Here on, here's the price. This was on, let me look at my date here, March 5th, 2021. Costco was making a low here. The RSI got very oversold and we had the spike in volume right here. So this was a telltale signal that we're hitting a bottom in this stock, which is Costco. Got a spike down in the price. RSI went totally oversold and a spike in volume, and look what Costco's done since. It's just rallied up. So we go back to the SPY. So we haven't seen the RSI hit oversold levels. This one here where we had the volume spike, the RSI got almost down to my oversold levels and then the market rallied. So we can see here on this spike down and then the market rallied off of the low RSI and the volume spike, but then it got sold off again. So we haven't seen that, we haven't seen that capitulation yet that really signifies bottom. So it doesn't mean we haven't found a bottom, not saying that we had to have a capitulation to find a bottom. This could be the bottom. I mean, we've really sold off pretty good compared to where we are now. This is where we were back in March of 2021. So we've lost about 14 months of gains in just a very short period of time. You do your look back here is where we were yesterday. You scale back or you scroll back. And this was on March 24th, 2021. So about 14 months worth of gains just evaporated in a very short period of time. So there is value out there. There is value out there, the smart money needs to come in. The other thing we like to look at to see if we're getting into lows is that we like to look at the fear and greed index, which is a indicator that really tells you the mood of the retail market, participants, the small traders like ourselves. And when everyone's panicking and selling, the fear and greed index gets very, very cheap. Let me pull that up here. I show this in my newsletter the other day or yesterday. Let me bring this up on the screen. So here's the fear and greed index. This is a part of the email that I sent out to our newsletter readers. This is the CNN money, fear and greed index. And it has this scale. Everyone extreme fear. Okay. It's at a six level. It goes zero to 100. Okay. When you're extreme fear, that means everyone's just getting out. And that's the exact time that we look for a bottom. It's basically a contrarian indicator, which goes against what everyone else is feeling. When everyone's bearish, how much further can the market go down? And that's when we get the bounce and start to spike up. So the fear and greed index at six telling us the market is super oversold, super oversold. And look what happened. We got this nice bounce part of Thursday and yesterday, Friday. And like I said, it doesn't necessarily mean now the bull is going to take over and we're going to get to all time new highs. It just means we needed some kind of relief rally. The market was just way oversold. And we can look at the VIX as well. The VIX is the fear indicator tells us the mood in the market as well. The VIX has been going up, just it goes opposite of the general market. So the VIX been going up. But the last two days, you can see it started trending down as the market started to go up. So if the VIX itself could start to keep going down, the market keeps going up, we know we've hit some kind of at least temporary bottom. So back to the spy. We want to see maybe a continuation of this market next week, maybe all the way up to the down trending 20-day moving average. That would take us to maybe about 415 on the SPY. Will it get that far? It's possible. We have the momentum from Thursday and Friday. It could carry over to Monday and Tuesday. We'll see how far it can take us. And then if it does get up to the 20-day moving average around 415 or so, be wary at that point. You may get the sell-off again. Or if it can power higher, then maybe we really found the bottom here. What we can do is we can draw some trend lines here. I mean, this is a pretty steep sell-off right here. I mean, you can see that's pretty steep. The steeper the sell-off, the harder it's going to bounce. So maybe we bounce up. The trend line is almost matching to where the 20-day moving average is. So maybe we bounce up to here, to connect with the down trending upper line here. So maybe around 415 or so. If it could break above that and start to move up, then I'm feeling a little bit better. But for now, I'm going to be a little wary. If it rallies up to the line here, I may look to, if I want to get short, maybe buy some put options or sell some call spreads or something. I may try to do that. But I want to see what happens when it connects up here if it gets knocked back down. Or maybe it'll go through. Just don't know yet. Let's look at the triple queues because that follows the NASDAQ to technology stocks. That's been getting hit pretty hard too. Let me remove these old lines here. And just like the SPY, you can draw these pretty deep. This is a pretty deep, pretty strong down move. The lines don't have to be exact. Just kind of gives you a visual of what's been happening. This is pretty steep. So you can see here, Thursday and Friday, had the bounce back. And it could probably rally up to maybe, I don't know, 315 or so. And then see what it does when it comes up to this area. Will it get knocked back down and stay within the channel? Can't say yet. So those are the indexes. Eventually the market will come back and start to go up again. We have these news items out there that is taking precedence. It's affecting the mood of the market. We've got the war in Ukraine. We've got inflation is still running very high. Interest rates are rising. The US Federal Reserve is rising interest rates to help cure this inflation. COVID is still hanging around. China is in lockdown because of COVID. So that's really affecting the supply chains of many companies that get their materials and supplies out of China. Workers can't work. So that's just causing more problems. Q1 earnings are almost over. At least all the biggies have announced. Some are good. Some are not so good. But a lot of the themes are we're having trouble with our supply chains getting the material to make our products. And that will end eventually. China will get over COVID. The supply chains will open up again. Interest rates are going to go up. So inflation will start to come down. People won't be spending as much money on food and gas and all that. This will all work itself out. We've got all these news items, big news items happening all at the same time. So that's keeping the market on edge. And once we get through those story lines, then the market will start to go up because there's value down here. Stocks have really come off pretty good. Let's take a look at some stocks and see just how far they've come off. Let's start with Apple. Apple, you look at these violent moves. When I open the chart up a little bit, you can see how strong the selling has been. When I close it up like this, you're like, oh, it doesn't look that bad, right? So it's all sort of in the perception. When I open it up, then it looks a lot scarier. It went from about $180 all the way down to $140. $40, but it was pretty big, pretty big move for Apple. I mean, it's kind of coming down to this waterfall, big selling vertical move down. Our side is not completely oversold, but Apple's given up a decent amount of money. $40 a share is a big move for Apple. Now, we can sort of see this right around the $140 level. We've got this support area, right? So that seems to be an area to target. If you're itching to get long on some shares of Apple, the $140 level has some good support going all the way back to last June or so. So there's going to be buyers here. There's going to be buyers stepping in around $140 to defend that level. And that's exactly where you can see. It just came right down to just below $140 on Thursday this week, but it bounced along with the rest of the market. So we'll see what happens. AMD, sort of the same thing. We had this 100 level, which was a support area I'd been buying around in the low 100s as well, fell through it. These horizontal lines, I've drawn the last couple of weeks to show the next areas of support. I said the 85 to 90 level should be the next area of support, which is right here around 85, because if you scroll back, here was the last support area. And it had bounced right around $85 or so this week, bounced up pretty good, closed at 95. We got into a trade this week on AMD. We sold in our credit spread, put option credit spread newsletter. We sold some put spreads with some cushion down below, giving ourselves some cushion, hoping to see AMD rally back up. I like AMD for the long run. It's a chip stock. Computer chips. Computers aren't going away. AMD is not going away. There's some value down here. So we want to see that rally back up. Let's look at Tesla. Tesla had a big move this week as well. Okay, topped out around $1,150 beginning of April, went just below $700 on Thursday. Rally back had the bounce with the rest of the market. Could we see 700? The 700 level, sort of a support area. If you go back to last June, you can see around $700, there was a decent amount of activity. At first it couldn't get through 700 here, popped through it, came back down, and then finally got above. So $700 seems to be a level that has lots of buyers and sellers. And it looks like right now it's the support area. Bounced here, bounced here, broke through it last summer here in August. So $700 seems to be the magic number for now as far as potential support. So we'd like to see everything start to bounce. Amazon just been crushed of late, almost hit the $2,000 mark. Let's go back to see when Amazon was near $2,000 a share. Stay with me and let me move myself a little bit here. We'll look at the monthly chart. So Amazon last time was at $2,000, was right around here. And I'll tell you the date was April of 2020, just like right after the COVID low. So Amazon's gone up and then just in a few short months has given back two years worth of gains in a very short period of time. So Amazon has gotten pretty close to oversold levels. Let's see what the volume looks like on Amazon. See if we got any kind of spike there. Okay, so here's a spike. Let's take a look at the spike. So here's the volume spike, which was right after the earnings announcement. Right, you can see the gap here, the air pocket volume spike, but Amazon kept going lower, kept going lower for another $500 a share. RSI is getting oversold right around Wednesday this week. So Amazon might be putting in the low for a period of time. You get the got the bounce. Maybe it'll tick back up to $2,600. So that's where the downtrending 20-day moving averages. So if we get a couple more days of up move, Amazon's going to jump pretty good. It could even jump all the way up to $2,600. But damage has been done. So that's Amazon. What other big stocks we'd like to look at? So we go through some of the really expensive stocks that got hit pretty good. We could talk about Shopify, you know, $1,700 all the way down, got down under $400 this week, even down to, let's see what the low was here this week. This bar was the low $308. So that's a big move on Shopify. A lot of these tech stocks have just gotten hit this week. You know, I went through them all recently. Just if you're in these tech stocks, these Momo stocks, they've all been, they've all gotten hit pretty hard. But let's look at some stocks that have been doing well. We're not, I don't want to be all doom and gloom here. Coca-Cola, still a strong stock, a stalwart dividend, aristocrat moving up, looks a lot different than the other stocks we're looking at where they're all going down. Coca-Cola looking good, had a nice day on Friday. You know, if you're looking for the stalwarts to hold and have forever and ever, you know, Coca-Cola is one of those types of stocks. Good dividend payer, Pepsi, Pepsi and Coke, right? Pepsi looking pretty good too. It's got the nice up-trending chart, not the down-trending chart. You know, these strong stocks you can buy in the pullbacks on the, you know, the 50-day or 20-day moving average levels. Yes, it got hit with the rest of the market back in February and March, but it still maintains its upward momentum. Some of the energy stocks, ExxonMobil, energy stocks have been going up. I've talked about ConEdison before. Ed, here's the ConEdison. This is the utility company, utility company's going up. So there are some select stocks that are going up. Look at that dividend aristocrats list I've given before. You can look at, build your watch list there. Let's take a look at some other stocks. We've got the healthcare stocks, Johnson & Johnson, healthcare stocks, looking pretty decent, Merck. We're all going to need healthcare. We're all going to have to see doctors and get medicine throughout our lives. So healthcare, pharma companies are doing okay. This is Merck. Pfizer, talked about Pfizer many times. You know, Pfizer could be making a base here. Glaxo, GlaxoSmithKline. You know, all these healthcare stocks are going up. We look at the XLV is the healthcare ETF. Now we have a position in that. You'd be surprised that, you know, you think the healthcare stocks are going up. The XLV should be going up as well, but it's sort of been flatlining here. We're in a, we put sell credit position selling, put option credit spreads, hoping for the bounce here. But we always play with cushion. So XLV, if you want to get a smattering of healthcare stocks, let's see what else we got. Let's check out the list, get our list here. Let's see what we have. A Walmart. We always like to look at Walmart. Another stalwart. Had been in this range, went up nicely. It's got a pullback here. Getting close to the 50 day moving. This is actually the 200 day moving average right here. This is the 50 day, 50 day here, 200 day here, 20 day here. So Walmart coming on a pullback, pullback about $12 per share from its highs. So, you know, if you want a stalwart, Walmart, we look at Disney as well. We're looking at these big stalwart companies, these well known brands. Disney just been getting hammered. I've been buying around the 130 level. I'm underwater on the position, but I'm, I'm having and holding for a long time. Disney's a great company. And the, this is just the, for me, I believe is just a temporary sell off. And eventually the market's going to, the stock and the markets will go back up. So, you know, and I've also been nibbling a little bit more on the way down because I'm going to hold for a while. Disney's a great company. I just don't, it's hard to see how it's coming off so much. I've been selling some way deep out of the money puts as well. That's what we do here at smartopsandseller.com. Let me just quickly pull up our website. If you want to learn a little bit more about put option selling, that's our specialty bread and butter. Go to our website, smartopsandseller.com, click on the put selling basics link right here. And it's a free report, free guide, free e-book. Put your name and email address in here and we'll send you a free copy. All right. So, let's go back to the charts. Disney, you know, getting, getting close to oversold levels on the RSI. I'm, I'm, I'm a, I'm a little bit of a buyer here, still on the way down. I'm going to have and hold forever. That's just me with Disney. Great company. Let's go back to the long-term monthly chart. Here's the COVID low, right around $80 a share. I mean, it's just gone up and come back down. I think there's value here in this area. That's just me, not a recommendation. I'm just showing you what I'm doing. Same thing with Nike, another brand on the same level as Disney. Nike just getting hammered as well. Well, you know, some might see this as buying opportunities. Let's look at the monthly, you know, look how great Nike's been doing. And it's just been having, having this pullback, pulling back to the 50 week moving average right here. Is it a buy area possible? If you like Nike for the long run, you know, it's a great company. Sell millions and millions of sneakers and apparel every year. I mean, some companies just have to be bought. You know, it's hard to buy on the way down because you think it could keep going lower. But you know, I'm personally, I nibble, nibble along the bottoms, try to catch for a turn. No, not putting it all out there, just bits and pieces to hold for a long period of time. Let's see what other stocks are on the list that we can look at here. Netflix, Netflix hanging, hanging around their lows. Here's a, look at the oversold here on the RSI, oversold here. Let's look at the volume. So if we got some spikes, look at that, that spike right there. But that was on the, the air pocket on the, the earnings announcement and but the price action kept going lower. But you've got the divergence of the RSI right here. When price action keeps going lower, but the RSI starting to trend upwards, that means the selling is slowing down and we may have the turn, the turn upwards. Let's remove the volume so we can see this a little better. So we've got the, the little bit of a turn upwards here the last two days, just like the rest of the market, RSI going up as well. Has Netflix found the bottom? Hard to say. It could rally up a little and then get hit back down again. Don't know. Facebook, sort of the same thing. Earnings announcements, just knocked it back down. Earnings announcements here brought it up, but it's been sold off again. I don't really like to play much with Facebook. Twitter, Elon Musk said yesterday that the deal is on hold while they work out some more kinks. Still doesn't mean that the deal is going to go through. So obviously stocks come down, Twitter's been coming down. The buy price is $54.20. We're at $40.72 now. He may be making a play to try to, to renegotiate a different price, a lower price, lower than $54. We'll see. Does he have a legitimate gripe about too many spam accounts on Twitter that they didn't tell him about? That's what he's saying. Price has been coming down. So we'll see what Twitter's doing. We don't have any positions in Twitter. Let's see what else we got. Verizon, still hanging in the lows. Kellogg, Kellogg doing pretty well. Serial, making a lot of serial. People still at home eating lots of serial. Kellogg's PayPal. Let's take a look at PayPal. We sold put options on PayPal with about a 50% downside cushion. Hoping to see PayPal get a bottom here. Still coming down a little. RSI slightly moving upwards may have found a bottom here. I just can't believe a stock like this is still just coming off so much. The payment sector, PayPal, Square is the other big player, still getting hit as well. I mean, eventually these stocks are going to find a bottom. We just have to wait it out. We've got lots of these news headlines still out there. We're all in the same boat. You know, if you're long, you're a buyer, you're bullish, you have 401ks, retirement accounts, long stock. We all have to endure these sell-offs at times, but we know as we look back at the SPY, let's look at the long-term chart. We know the market goes up over time, but we have to endure some pullbacks along the way. If you've got the time and the patience, then you will be rewarded in the long run. That's just how investing in the stock market works. Now, if you're a very, if you're a shorter-term player, it's harder. You know, you got to try to catch the swings up and down. In our newsletter, our time frame is about a couple months. You know, those are our hold periods. So we have to be pretty good with our timing to try to catch these bottoms. So we've been very light. We've been hanging off on the sidelines, not putting our money at risk, because we know the market's just been coming down. It's a little bit too treacherous for us to really put out a lot of new positions, because if the market keeps coming off, then we may get stopped out of more trades and lose money. We don't want to do that. So we're kind of hanging back a little bit, more money in cash. Cash is a position to have, even though you're not really earning a lot of money on your cash, at least you're not losing it. So we're taking it light. That's just how it is. The market telling us to stay out, we stay out. Okay. Let me see if there's any other stocks that are worth looking at. McDonald's is kind of hanging around. A Warren Buffett, you know, even Warren Buffett's stock's been coming off, but hanging on this now the 200-day moving average support area. I've showed you on our website, we have the Warren Buffett report that I wrote about a trading strategy. You can go on our website and take a look. Let me see if I can show you where it is. Here on our website, if you go to the more tab and you click on shop right here, go to the more tab, click on shop and you'll come to the Warren Buffett trading strategy report that I wrote that may interest you. So Warren Buffett, you want to piggyback him? Take a look at that report. What else we have? Bitcoin's been coming down this week, gotten under $30,000. So Mara and Riot, the Bitcoin stocks have also been moving lower. Bitcoin seems to be tracking with the stock market as well. Those are all going down eBay. That's about it. That's about it. I think of notable stocks. Just scrolling through the list here. Costco has gotten hit this week as well, fell below the 200-day moving average. Like I said, there's a point where value comes into play. People are going to step up and start buying these stocks. I think that's it for the notables Oracle position. We still have Oracle. We still put options on Oracle, waiting for that thing to come back for the bounce. $70 seems to be support right now. So we're waiting. We're waiting. All right. I think that'll do it for me here. 32 minutes in. I hope this gives you a decent idea of what's been happening. Let's quickly take a last look at the SPY relief bounce on Thursday and Friday. We may have some follow-through Monday, Tuesday, this week. Look for the downtrending channel and the downtrending 20-day moving average to catch the next potential resistance area. Will it knock it back down or will it muster enough muscle to break through and start the next leg of the upside in earnest yet to be seen? But watch this area on the SPY, maybe around $415 level. See what happens. All right. That's all for that. Remember, go to our website. Get that put selling basics guide. And I hope this video has been helpful. Give me a thumbs up in the YouTube video. Don't forget to subscribe. Hit that red subscribe button. Leave me a comment. Send me an email. I'll answer your emails. Don't forget to follow me on Twitter as well in the video description. You can see my Twitter link. All right. That's all for me today. I hope everyone has a great weekend and a great trading week ahead. I don't think I'll be around the next two weekends. Got some family obligations, graduations. Then it's Memorial Day weekend here in the U.S. So I'll probably see you back here in a couple weekends. All right. That's all for me today. Take care, everyone. This is Lee Lowell signing off.