 Hello and welcome to the week ahead video with me, Dave Madden. Today's date is Friday the 22nd of November 2019 at the time is just count 1025 GMT And I'm looking ahead to next week, which is Monday the 25th of the Friday the 29th of November So before we look at discuss the events of next week and what we could be looking out for Let's just have a quick look at what's going on so far The US China trade saga has been very much at the forefront of traders minds this week. We've heard a lot of Sound bites and a lot of comments and a lot of reports We haven't heard a whole lot of absolute concrete evidence It's all about things still up at the air and particularly in the last 24 hours 48 hours We've heard of some kind of conflicting bits of news and information So so they can result of that was a trader felt based broadly speaking a bit on easy and there's been a kind of a lack of Really kind of firm direction being taken Broadly speaking we've got a bit of ground on a global equity markets But and again if traders were genuinely is absolutely terrified that all the the progress and has is going to come undone Equity markets will be a lot lower Conversely if they were absolutely confident that they would be struck in the few weeks They would probably be higher, but we've heard various different things like There's a possibility the US China trade deal will not be signed in 2019 he beside the 2020 there's a possibility That President Trump could look to hike Tariffs even higher if the deal isn't reached within the next month We've heard from the Chinese Premier who basically said that once you have a trip once you carry out talks And really and carry out and continue the mutual respect Proceeding paying also made it clear that he didn't China didn't start the trade war the US did results reports that the vice premier of China has invited Robert lights Liger and Steve pollution for talks. So It's a bit of a mixed picture. I'm all the kind of chewing and throwing. That's how we see the kind of equity markets Swing around but by and large the move of the last few days has been to the downside but like I said, they think they're Traders were absolutely terrified that the of the trade talks. We're going to come undone We would actually be somewhere else. It is also worth pointing out According to Steve minutiae the US Treasury Secretary that back in June There were about 90% of the way there in terms of trade So things you can't have a lot of progress and then things can all come undone as well as traders I'm really kind of lost sight of that Looking at close at the home what's going on here in the UK in relation to The UK economy and the British pound and politics the general action and the polls of about the general action are very much in play as far as The British parents concerned essentially every poll I've seen as put the Conservative Party and comfortably in the in the lead On top of that during the week we heard from Boris Johnson He said that all of the Tory candidates that are standing in next month's general action all support the deal that he brokered with the European Union, so you know that the view there is if the Tories get get a get a majority and those particular Perspective MPs were through the word. The idea should be that They would all back Boris Johnson's deal Obviously, there's this major political uncertainty of that Uncertainty if I can go on in 2016 has thought of that thing that you can't really absolutely kind of be Relied too much on opinion polls, but nonetheless The gains that have been made in the British pound in the last couple of months have been largely held on to on the on that basis Also during the week what we heard from The Federal Reserve here the Fed minutes It was this was the update from the meeting in at the end of October with the Fed cut rates With a third time in a number of months And it seems fairly clear that the most of the policy makers in the US are content With the at the the rates the concept that they've introduced so far should be enough to support jobs the economy growth and inflation and So it would appear that The US economy isn't fairly good isn't is in fairly good shape, and it would appear that US policy makers don't want to move Any what to put moving rates in the near term at least obviously the kind of caveat of it depending on you know data dependent and all that but Looks pretty to be confident that they're not going to be ultra rates in the near term Haven't having a look at the major events of next week. We have the German IFO business climate This is going to be a fairly fairly important Very important significance given that the Chinese said the given that the German economy is the largest economy in Europe The German economy narrowly dodged a technical recession manufacturing and services in In in Germany are predict are particularly strong. So any kind of sign of How any kind of indication of how business climate is doing is going to be very valuable for traders insight because Germany's They kind of call them the crossfire of well, they're not only brexit uncertainty, but also the US China trade story Next week we have from the corporate stories. We have updates from a third quarter numbers from Dick's Sporting Goods over the US It's a retailer it gives a flavor of Of how the retail appetite is the company and its most recent update a fairly positive Very positive second quarter figures and they managed to actually raise their the fund your forecast So there are some positive stories out there as far as you US retail is concerned On we have a full your numbers from top styles here in the UK on the same day on the on Tuesday next week We also have full your numbers of our Maristons the pub crowd Here in the UK, but probably one of the more important economic indicators next week from the Will be the US third quarter GDP and the peace and the core PCE reading now keep mind in relation to in relation to growth the US economy grew by 3.1% in the first quarter grew by 2% second quarter sorted fairly good shape But obviously it's a decline in growth I've quarter quarter so any kind of signs that the US economy is leveling off of growth or if the Design is that the US economy is going to continue all that kind of deceleration rate that could kind of bring to the bring up the old idea that What are the Fed going to do next but keep mind the Fed cut rates in September the cut rates in October So the possibility that that those interest rate cuts have really kind of trickle down to the US economy I think towards the back end the next week. We have inflation figures of the eurozone This gives an indication of how demand is patting out in the eurozone and we already know that it's that it's a pretty weak That's why the European Central Bank have restarted their government bond buying scheme is a way of kind of reinvigorating Some sort of growth in the area We also have Canadian Third quarter numbers coming out at the back end the next week now It's quite remarkable that the quite impressive the Bank of Canada kept interest rates on hold for over a year now Given what there's other neighbors down to give them what the likes of Australia, New Zealand and the European Central Bank have all done So any kind of signs of weakness that the Canadian economy is cooling down They could be next potentially in the farry line for cutting interest rates Just because if everyone's around you cuts rate that kindly makes your currency relatively more expensive Which can damage exports which can lead to a slowdown in the economy and on Saturday the 30th of November Which obviously be a weekend. We have the official Chinese figures manufacturing and non manufacturing numbers coming out I'll take a look now at some of the major markets and see how things are looking starting off with the FTSE 100 so the broad Kind of move for the last year by six seven weeks on the FTSE 100 has been to the upside Granted, I know we had a fairly sizable up size would pull back between early November and it's mid-November We were trading fairly much on the tour to move the average this red line along here And so the broader move for the last few weeks has been to the upside if it could hold above this area here 7,200 I got a kid and if you can read it and have a size and make break above The tour to move the average we could be looking retesting 7,400 I think I'll be on that you could be looking towards this zone here in around 7,470 down to 7,440 so that there are potential areas of resistance if they get a wider upper trend continues Taking a look is what is going on over in Germany So the big picture is that the German market has been performing well particularly brought with the 19 who are particularly in the last few months and Not only recently, do we see levels last seen in January in January? 2017 sorry apologies January 2018 rather so that we're talking quite a quite an impressive Impressive levels seen on the DAX not too long ago. So we're talking about, you know, 22 month highs So give indication if I'm polishing there on the DAX Granted, we've kind of pull back a bit recently talked about Trains were getting certain about the next leg of the US China trade war But the wider trend does continue. We could be looking at retesting this area here in around 13,600 which is obviously a fair fair bit away But you know that could be the potential near-term target medium to medium-term target rather if the kind of more recent Downward trend downward move we've had in the last week or so or 10 days does manage to continue We could be looking at it back down towards 13,000 or this area here in around 12,900 980 I take a look at what's going on at the S&P 500 So if you can remember the first thing was broadly moving high for the last five or six weeks But the first hundred is nowhere near as strong as the DAX and the DAX is nowhere near as strong as the S&P 500 Now the S&P 500 only Only short while ago was at all-time highs it could ever so slightly from those all-time highs So give me the really kind of sums up how strong US markets are even though that they're the trade war with China They're still Just not a million miles away from record high So the S&P 500 is a very much in the support trend if you continue to push it higher from here We could be looking at retesting the recent highs in around kind of 31, 32, 33 in around what you saw not too long ago Only during the week and if you're gonna press on beyond that we could be looking at targeting 31, 20, 30, so on and so forth If you didn't see any move move to the downside you can pull back to this zone here in around 30, 66 or potentially 30, 25 And last you take a look at the British pound versus US dollar. I talked about how Because the conservatives are doing well the opinion polls and it would appear that the candidates running in the conservative party are going to back Boris Should he should he get a majority? We've seen we've seen a bit of kind of sideways training of it on the British pound versus US dollar So we're you know, we've held producing nearly all the gains that were made since early September And if you do look to kind of push it higher from here We could look at retesting the recent high in at one spot 30, 20, 12 and a movie on that could take us up towards One spot 31, 78, but if you do move to the downside We could balance the support from this zone here in around one spot 28 or maybe one spot 27, 68 And potentially even from the tour to moving average here in at one spot 27, oh for I would suggest that it's only really if It's hard to see says the Labour Party make in rows into the conservative lead in the opinion polls could then be begin to get to see Kind of a move to the downside in the British pound and you know as as a fairly strong as a pile of days I also foresee it It getting some difficulty trying to kind of have a decent break north of the recent high just because You know opinion polls as you saw in 2016 Don't always give up a perfect for a perfect view. So I think we could see limited upside in the British pound But at the same time, we really want to see the conservative majority tear for all before we can actually get worried thinking We're actually gonna look for head towards a potential possibility of a Labour government That is all for me this week. Thank you for listening and tune in next week. Thank you