 Let's go over to our man Mr. Tim Ord and folks you can find out and check out Tim at od.oracle.com. Tim will be on this program every Thursday at 20 past the hour. Tim, welcome back to TFNN. Great. Long time, been 20 years. I know man. Is that crazy or what? Yeah, it's crazy, isn't it? Just like that. Go ahead. Just like that. No doubt about it. It's pretty amazing, man. There's no doubt. I mean, I think the first time that I actually had you on was like 1996. That's when we started? Yeah. Yeah. Isn't that crazy? Well, I know. Yeah, then my mom died right around that 2003. I think that was somewhere in that time frame. So we're back. Yes, sir. So what chart do you want to start with? Yes, I have them up. Okay, we'll go through that weekly GDX. We'll kind of look at the bigger picture first. Okay, I have it up right now. Anyhow, this is a weekly chart. And it's kind of a, I came across this, I've been screwing with it for a couple of three years, but anyhow, it's GDX and it has AD, well, if you look at the top for the, how to begin here, let's see. Well, anyhow, we'll start with the bottom window as a weekly chart of the GDX up-down volume percent. Okay. And the next window up is the GDX advance decline percent. Yes. So you got an up-down volume indicator, then you got an advance decline indicator, both for GDX. And this is on a weekly timeframe. Then I took a cumulative cumulative of both those up-down volume and advance client indicators. Okay. So that's what you see there. And I put a Bollinger Band on top of that. Yep. So every time this chart goes back only around 2010 because that's as far as back those two indicators went. So they're not, I couldn't get them to go back any further because I didn't have the information to do it. Yes. But it works really well on the bigger timeframes. If you notice in a 2012 top, it fell through the mid-Bollinger Band on the weekly timeframe and pretty much stayed below the mid-Bollinger Band all the way into about 2016. Look at that. Yeah, I see that. Yeah. That was a four-year cell signal. Right. And it worked pretty well. Then it gave a bi-signal. It looks like about early 2016 and it stayed on that bi-signal pretty much for a year and a half. And that was a good run. Yeah. That was a good run. Right. Yeah. It got that big move up and everything. So from others, when both indicators close above the mid-Bollinger Band, it's on a bi-signal. When it closes below the mid-Bollinger Band, it's a cell signal. Nice. Got a little bit messy in 2017. It kind of hovered around the mid-Bollinger Band, kind of warned you like the Uptown was failing there. But finally, it was kind of a messy signal anyhow. In general, it moved down for another year and a half. Then in 2019, it broke above both the mid-Bollinger Band and stayed on that bi-signal for a year and a half. Yeah. And then back in 2021, looks like January or so, it failed below the Bollinger Band and pretty much stayed below that Bollinger Band until now. Right. And it's been two years in that decline. So basically, if it kind of matches what the previous signals are, you're probably looking at a year and a half of rally here. Right. Just take on average of maybe two years. But this type of indicator doesn't get whippered. Once it gets on a bi- or a cell signal, it stays there pretty much. Yeah, I know. This is pretty cool. I can see that. I can see that. Yeah, definitely. Yeah. So I'm thinking this is probably on a bi-signal that may last over the next, I got some other indicators kind of saying that something similar to this. But this bicycle may last. You know, it gets pretty much, give a bi-signal right pretty much in this timeframe in March. And this bi-signal may persist for the next year and a half. So it'll be kind of interesting to see for that turns out to be the case. But long as both indicators on the weekly timeframe are above the mid-Bollinger Band, the bicycle is in force. That's what's happening right now. And that's pretty cool because, you know, it's only 25% off its all-time high from that run in 2020. So that could be a nice run, man. Cool. Okay. Yeah. Nice. Yeah. All right. Let's flip to the next indicator. And this is a GDX again. And it's the bottom window of the GDX, daily advanced decline percent. Yeah. That's just what it is. And next, it's an 18-day average of the advanced decline percent. The next window up from the bottom is GDX up down volume with 18 day average. And the top window is GDX. Okay. And what happens here is when the 18-day average of the advanced decline and up-down volume both get above 40, then that's what I call a surge pattern happens. And the red line shows the times when this has happened. It doesn't happen every year. It did happen once in 2021. It happened a couple of times 2020, once in 2019, once 2016. But it just happened here on April 4th. April 4th, the advanced decline indicator, April 4th closed at 45.98. And on the up-down volume that closed at 42.36, so it's well above the 40 range, almost similar to what happened in 2016. So even though this market's overbought, what this indicator suggests that the run is going to continue, so nobody's really expecting that. You know, oh, it's overbought. We got to sell everything. Well, this indicator just flipped to a surge pattern just two days ago. Right. So in general, you will see some maybe three or four down days, but in general, it's probably going to look something like 2016 or 2019. And we know that markets can stay overbought for quite some time, Tim, right? See what? That markets can stay overbought for quite some time. Right. That's what happens in bull markets, you know. And, you know, we've been really kind of a sloppy market. I mean, over the last, since 2020, I mean, it went up, went down, went sideways, went below some previous lows, that shouldn't have broke through it did, came back up again. So now I'm thinking this is going to be a pretty much of a steady rally. I'd love to have this indicator all the way back to 2000, I wish I could have seen what happened back then, but 2000 from 2000, which was with the bottom and GDX Goldmark and rallied all the way to 2012, you know, went up basically 12, what did go up for 12 years. I know, you know, maybe we're due for another type of 2000 rally again. I don't know, but this rally, according to these two indicators, one suggested that we've got another year and a half to go. This rally here is probably got several weeks, if not months to go. Yeah. So kind of setting it at unusual time here, how far things are going to go. Okay, just stay there for a second, Tim. We're going to start breaking. We're going to bring you back. And you know, it's interesting, Tim, about that GDX. See, the GDX wasn't trading. It was a new ETF. That's what's going on there. So there is no info. Stay right there, folks. Tim and I are coming right back. Welcome back, folks. Dow Industries right now, down 28, you get the NASDAQ of 86, S&P's are up 12. We're talking with our members, Tim Wood. And you can get hold of Tim folks at od.oracle.com. And we are going over right now the GDX chart. Yeah, so, Tim, that, you know, you have all the data. What happened is that this ETF only started trading May 22nd of 2006. That's why you can't go back to 2000. Oh, okay. Yeah, at least we could. That was that indicator. I know. Okay, so go ahead. Benny, I would, it's something I'm usually going on in here. So, you know, I don't know how much time we have. So I sent over three charts. But I've been watching the GDX to GLD ratio or GX to gold ratio. Is that the top of the second chart, Tim? Or do you want me to go to the third? Well, no, actually, I don't have that chart. Well, we can flip to the last chart you want just to cover the S&P real quick. Oh, we get plenty of time. We get seven, eight minutes left. So we can, wherever you want to go, we can do. All right, we'll go to that third chart. Okay. There we go. Listen to this one, folks. Go ahead. No, I'm just saying, listen to this one. I already looked at it. I like it. Yeah, you know, it's a monthly chart of the SPYs. And I have a Fibonacci relationship on that, drawn on that, but I didn't show where it came from. That Fibonacci relationship comes from the March 2020 low. Okay. And we didn't quite get to a 50% retracement. So I just wanted to point that out. But the pattern in there that I'm seeing is a head and shoulder shoulders bottom. And if you look at the March, Mike, my opinion is the sign of strength. You're a volume guy. So am I. Yep. And we busted through that trend line on a closing basis. So my opinion, we had a sign of strength through a neckline. And if you do the measurement of this head and shoulder's bottom that has a target, you know, you take the bottom of the head and you measure up to the neckline. If you do that measurement, you come back to the 470 area. Well, the 470 area happens to be the January high of 2022. So I'm thinking in general, that's where we're going to go this year. Nobody's really bullish here at all. But Mark wants to go up. If we look at the bottom window there, it's just a simple momentum indicator, which is the monthly flow stochastic. Yes. And it turned back up in November. And it's still trending up. So the monthly charts are up. So what a mind blowing that would be, huh? Yeah. Yeah. So nobody, you know, really nobody's bullish out there. But you know, if we had a sign of strength through the neckline of the head and shoulder's bottom, I mean, you got to assume, you know, it's you know, I guess the quacks in this model is deduct. So, you know, if it's a head and shoulder's and it has sign of strength through the neckline is the head and shoulder. So I think in general, we're going to work higher here. I don't have it shown here, but I do a lot of stuff with panning. And panning's a really good thing for a bull market to have. If you don't have panic, then you don't really have energy for the rise. Yes. And all through that, that sideways pattern starting last May, going into basically March, I have a different graph showing what the trend did all in that timeframe over, you know, basically 10 months. Right. There's a lot of trend readings all through that area, all by like 1.2, I call anything but 1.2 a panic situation. And there's tons of panic readings in the trend all on that level. If you do a 100-day trend analysis or even a 60-day trend, which is a three-month timeframe, you have readings over 1.2 all in that timeframe. So what I'm saying is you got enough energy, now there's not enough panic in the market to drive this potential head and shoulder's bottom higher. Because panic, if you don't have panic, you don't have energy. And so I'm thinking the sideways market since last May has enough panic in it to drive the market higher, according to the panic readings. I do some stuff with the VIX, too, and it's kind of... Sure. And I'm going to show them... We'll show some of that. I'm going to show them what you were looking at here, because this is cool, man. You know, you can see, folks, he was talking about the lows of 2020 going all the way up. And we did... I took the... Maybe I took the low of March 2020, Tim, to the low, and it was exactly a 50% retracement, which is crazy, and the spy. The 348, it's like a 50% retracement. And it was going to get so interesting here. When you have inflation, I mean, I know it does sound bizarre that you can go back to the highs, but if inflation keeps going, it just means you have a higher number. It doesn't mean that we can buy more with it. So this always gets intriguing. Remember, I mean, I remember we were still doing business when Zimbabwe was going like 13, 14, 26,000. Remember, I mean, it was like, okay, hold it. This is insane. But the bottom line is that their money wasn't worth anything at the end of the row. Also, so... Right. It's really... If you go back to that Fibodavi retracement on the SPYs here, if it went down to 61%, which it didn't, but if it did, the best it could do is get back to the old highs, according to... That's what I learned. If it goes down to the 5%, it at least goes back to the old highs. If not, mark the halfway point and the next move up. So if you do the halfway point and the next move up, you come up with SPY around 600. Everybody will laugh about that and how crazy I am for saying that. But time will tell. Time will tell, man. And it's the same. I'm looking at this bond market, Tim, and I mean, there's no doubt. I've been a bear on the way down, but when this bond market start turning, I'm saying to myself, my take is that the rates look to me with that banking crisis when it came in hard. And it's like, okay, it looks to me like the rates have turned. I mean, we just went from 4% on the 10 year to 3.2 and 21 trading days. That's unbelievable. I mean, so it's like, okay, if rates are going down, then more than likely that means the dollar is going lower. I can see gold going higher. If the dollar is going lower, well, I can see the SPY going higher because that correlation is in. Do you know what I mean? So pretty wild, man. Yeah, pretty well. There's another thing too. This is a pre-election year. Yes. And historically, the pre-election year, the next year is the election, obviously. Pre-election year has a 94% of being higher. Is that right? Wow. Okay. According to, going back to 1950, so that's a real interesting. So what that says to me, the government is going to try to keep this market up at least sideways. After the election, you might see something different, but this market is probably going to be halfway stable, probably going into the election. So it may go sideways here. I don't know. Maybe hit the highs of 470 on the SPY and build some sort of a trading range. And that's a possibility. But in my opinion, at least over the next several months, I think possibly in July, maybe August, we'll at least see 470. And from there, I don't know. Because he got seasonality. Hey, we'll take 470. We'll take 470. We'll take gold going up for a year and a half, right? Yeah, it is totally. We'll talk a year from now, a year and a half from now. And there'll be some, you know, great investments. You know, this gold market has been dead for a while. Yep, exactly. But when it runs, we both know when it runs, it's a beautiful thing. Yeah. Yeah. Well, listen, Tim, thank you so much. We look forward to talking to you next Thursday and folks, you can get hold of Tim at ord-oracle.com. Tim, you have a great Easter, safe Easter, and we'll talk to you next Thursday. All right, sounds good. Thanks so much. Stay right there, folks, we'll come right back.