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Powell basically reiterated potential rate cuts in early 2024, even though he was talking about holding higher for longer, even though last meeting they said they were not even thinking about rate cuts, it seems like they basically just caved in and the market loved it. And last week, the trade ideas list was pretty good. We had a couple long setups. We had Tesla that could go either way. It actually triggered some downside early in the week. Had a nice about 3% dump to the downside once it broke out the wedge. And then also it actually broke out of the wedge later in the week to the upside. So it paid both ways pretty much for anybody. There's people in the chat who had their own call outs for Tesla calls that did pretty good and as well as the puts did really good at the beginning of the week. Netflix did really good off the demand zone. We were looking at SoFi had a killer week. As soon as the FOMC came out and people thought they could be cutting rates, SoFi had a killer couple days, ran up almost like 15%, broke out of the channel and had everything we were looking for for that setup. So hopefully we have a couple more setups this week that are going to be just as good. But before we get into that, we're going to go ahead and get into the economic calendar real quick. So I'd say there's really no market moving data, probably until existing home sales here on Wednesday. That always has the potential to move the market, so pay attention to that. And then Thursday, the most important is going to be the GDP obviously. You can also pay attention to the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey. This can move the market depending on how extreme the reading is. And then Friday is going to be the most important and it's going to be personal income, personal spending in the PCE index, which is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge over the CPI. They prefer this over the CPI and we will want to see that continuing trend of inflation cooling. That way we know their hiking is working and that ray hikes are doing their job as they're supposed to. And then we also have new home sales and consumer sentiment as well. I would say consumer sentiment is probably the second most important. This always can move the market pretty big. Just depends on the reading and on to the seasonality. I actually have a new little tool that we can start using here similar to the season acts that we used to use in past videos until they cut me off from the free edition. I now found a new tool that's almost just as good and also has lots of years where the data that you can go up to, you can raise this bar all the way up to 25 years if you want. You can go back down to 10 if you want more recent trends, which is probably what we're going to be looking at. Want to pay attention to the most recent seasonality. We want to see what the market's following lately rather than all throughout history. Obviously, the longer term trends are good to pay attention to as well. But for the short term and the medium term, I feel like these 10 years to 15 year readings are probably pretty good for seasonality if you're trying to get readings on a week to week basis. So I got the spy here. We're looking at a potential dip from the 18th to the 22nd, which is our trading week. And then that goes up to Friday, the 22nd, and we do have a small little dip here, nothing crazy. And then after this week, it's kind of when we start seeing that Santa Claus rally and you see that run up into the end of the year historically. So this little potential dip that kind of averages throughout these last 10 years, it kind of makes sense because we did just have that monthly expiration in December and there is potentially a window of weakness after those options expiration. After so much money has expired, you have a lot of rebalancing the week after and that kind of can bring some weakness and you will see that window of weakness potentially. So pay attention to that. We do have a potential dip, nothing crazy. You can see that just a little bit of a drawdown. Obviously, we didn't follow it last week or the week before and you kind of do have a little downtrend here that we did not follow. We actually had upside. So just keep that in mind. Seasonality is not going to be 100% accurate all the time. Conditions are different each year and sometimes it's just not going to follow. So but keep in mind that options expiration, window of weakness week after, you will see some rebalancing sometimes and you can see some weakness in some names and honestly, the indexes look like they are ready for some type of cool down, whether it's consolidation or a short-term pullback. But to be fair, they have looked like they've been ready for that for a while now. So got to be careful with that. Be careful shorting over the 9 and 21 EMA combo on the indexes. It's a good way to get wrecked. So just be careful. Keep this in mind. Looks like we do get a little dip potentially, but nothing crazy. And onto the setups. This first one we're looking at CVX to the upside. I like this one for calls. You can kind of see it broke out of this little downtrend thing that I had going right here. You can see it was like a test one, test two, test three rejection. Finally broke out of that little wedge. Also had this 140 low hold and that 140 comes from right here. I'm sorry that 140 comes from right here and held it up pretty good. They actually sold off pretty aggressively from their last earners report and it's kind of just been down and chopping since. But now starting to get some momentum after the FOMC. Looks like Powell's mouth ended up bringing a bunch of commodities up, including gold, oil, even saw a live cattle up. There's a bunch of commodities that went crazy after the FOMC. And it looks like energy is trying to catch a bit now. So I wanted to pay attention to that. Obviously, this might need to get over 150 flat. So this 140 990s, you could just round that up to 150. That's coming from right here. It's also support right here. Need to get over that and you can start filling this gap up. There's also this one day 50 EMA, which is this line right here. We need to get over that. And then you can probably get up to the one day 200 EMA overall. MACD is positive. That's a good sign. Obviously, it's been positive for a while. So it looks like the momentum indicators were able to hold despite any weakness down here. So just pay attention to that. Look for a move over 150 maybe, that 150 move and one day close over 150. You can start entering this gap. That could be your confirmation to fill up all the sale amounts that's right here. You really don't have any supply until way up here. You got a one day supply candle right here. This is a rally-based drop supply zone, simple as that. You got the rally-based drop, big sale imbalance right here. So that's a pretty clear zone. And you got another gap right here as well. So lots of sale imbalance, lots of gaps to fill for energy or at least CVX here. I'm not sure about the Exile and the Exom. I'm guessing they have probably a pretty similar pattern since CVX and Exom do make up the whole ETF, basically at least half of it. And a lot of energy, they kind of move the same or similar. So just pay attention to the energy sector if you can. Exile had a nice little bullish wedge that was breaking out of as well. So, but I really like CVX here, holding up supports, broke out of your downtrend, needs to get over 150 and you got a couple of gaps to fill. So CVX, looking at calls, make sure you buy time on your contracts. I say it every single week if you're gonna swing trade, 30 plus days of expiration at minimum, maybe even go longer. Day trades really stick to like probably three to seven days of expiration at least, but you need to be flat by the end of the day. Do not swing three to seven days of expiration overnight. It's just risky. Unless you're way deep in the money with way less risk, way less money up front, because otherwise that will put you at risk. And any drawdown three to seven days of expiration is just not good overnight. So that's for CVX, looking at calls, be patient. And onto number two, we got SQ here. So this is pretty clear. You got to test one, test two. This is a test three downtrend line. So now I want to look for some potential downside. Just want to look at put scalps on this. Obviously if you wanted to do puts, it's a little bit riskier. You got seasonality going against you. Maybe you could just trade down to this. So if you needed to hold overnight to get to this point at 70, 67, that could work as well. I feel like eventually it might try to come down and test this one day nine EMA. And it just does it every time, right? It goes up, it consolidates or drops for a little bit and then it taps the nine and then it goes higher and it just keeps going and going and going. So eventually the nine is going to get tapped. That's a given. Whether it's going to be consolidating and it's going to meet all the way up here because that nine EMA lags, whether it's going to be after a big drop and test it all the way down here, I have no idea, but the nine EMA will get tested eventually. So that's just one thing to keep in mind as well as you have this big downtrend line. If we even looked at it on the one week timeframe, you had a pretty clear downtrend test right here, test one, test two, test three. You don't have a confirmed breakout yet and you don't have a confirmed one week bar rejecting here yet either. So you want to keep that in mind. This one day bar, this little short term one is the only one you have and it's really not a bearish bar at all just because it's red doesn't mean it's indicating a reversal. It's not indicating really any strong cell pressure. This is more of a consolidation candle. So one thing you will want to see is SQ taking out the Friday's lows. It's going to be at 73.66. Keep it simple if it breaks under that. I could probably start filling up these one day bars right here and this little short term gap. I'm not going to market it just because it's pretty small but that's a gap right there from 70.50s to 71.70s. So SQ looking at puts for day trading, probably mostly scalping. I'm not sure how I feel about swinging puts on this especially with the market pretty much expecting rate cuts in early 2024. A lot of these zombie companies, a lot of these beat down tech names and crypto names, all the junk pretty much they got slapped in 2022 is getting bit up, short squeezed, everything you could think of. So that's why with these names you might just want to stick to like scalping puts if you're going to try to time tops or catch reversals at the top. You got to be thinking more short term just in case it ends up holding the trend which is obviously pretty common lately. You just got it holding the nine and 21 combo here and just keeps marching higher. So once it gets back down to the nine you want to be careful. So that's for SQ looking at puts mostly scalps way for it to get under 73.66. So it takes out that Friday's low. That's a good chance I can start feeling back down again. And for our last individual ticker I only have three this week because there really wasn't that many setups that I liked. Lots of the market already broke out. Lots of stuff is already hitting highs there just really wasn't many trend breaks or downtrend lines being tested. No uptrend lines really being tested. A lot of stuff was just already at highs or way over their moving averages. So longs really weren't that good. There's a couple high growth names. They kind of like zombie companies that are at its low like a lot of solar names like SPWR that's at lows. It looks pretty good for maybe further out calls like at least like four to six months of expiration for calls. Maybe even leaps which are a year or longer. You can look at that. So check out SWR or really any of the beat down solar names. Those kind of do good in a low rate environments and with the market trying to price in rate cuts a lot of them are trying to do good now. And I'm not even saying like the rate cuts are already here or anything. It's impossible to fit funds ready to stay exactly where it was they paused. But you do have the bond yields trying to come down and that's basically the market trying to price in any rate cuts in the future. Market is very forward looking. So that's why a lot of these zombie companies are doing really good. Especially high growth names like Uber has been doing really good. Solar has been doing good. Beat down EV names. China names had a bounce last week. We actually had Baba calls a couple weeks ago and I finally got to close those on Friday for a nice game. So congrats if you were able to be patient on that. Just because these setups maybe don't play out the week after we look at them. Keep it on watch if it hasn't done anything yet. Cause a lot of them will come back to life. Like B&Y that wedge we were looking at a couple weeks ago that just hit our price target from a couple weeks ago last week. So and then Baba same thing as well. It just needed to chop around at lows for a little bit. And then Friday just had a big move up and we were able to cash out on those calls and it just took a couple weeks. So be patient. You know, don't think bad of me just because the setup doesn't play out the first week. That's all I'm saying. But Uber here, we do have a clear trend break even if you went down to the four hour. Same thing. You got test one, test two, test three, test four. Try to test five, broke down, came up. Try to get back over it and then close back outside of it again on Friday. It actually had a big dump towards the end of the day. Really big volume and it closed at 364 million volumes. This is the biggest volume it's had in a really long time. Specifically this bar, somebody looks like traded 201 million shares just in this after hour period right here right at the close. Really big volume, likely due to options, expiration and also it's joining the S&P 500 I believe. So there's probably a lot of rebalancing right there. That's why you got this big volume spike. So I mean, we don't know if this is a big sell or a big buy. It could be a market on close order. Somebody buying at the market price at close, we have no idea. But this is huge rebalancing volume. So definitely worth noting. Overall, you still do have it holding your nine EMA, nine to 21 combos. So just keep that in mind. It will need to get under the one day nine EMA to even get to the 21. So if you want to wait for a break under that, that's understandable. Wait for the MACD to kind of go negative as well. You do have the four hour MACD going negative right here. So that's a good sign. But Uber I'm looking at puts same thing kind of with SQ. I'm not exactly sure about a swing here but definitely looking at scalps, day trades, something I can get in and get out, you know, at least by the end of the day. Uber, I kind of do like the downside here better for a swing trade than SQ just because SQ still has the potential to break out. You got Uber actually breaking a trend here. So that could be a good further out swing, I guess. You just got to be careful in these coming months because this December to January, the markets can get a little bit crazy seasonality wise. And then you also have this all-time high resistance here at 64. And that's kind of what we rejected off of on Friday. Obviously didn't hit it to the penny, but general area, obviously it was good enough for everybody and they kind of brought it down towards the end of the day. So Uber looking at puts, keep this all-time high resistance in mind, trend breaking, make sure it breaks under the one day nine EMA, keep it simple and just be patient. All right, not to the indexes. So last week, we were just focused on this 462. We really needed to see a breakout over that for me to even feel bullish about getting up to any higher price targets. And honestly, 462 was probably the highest I was looking for just because I had no idea how it would react to resistance, at least until you got a one day close over that, which we did on Tuesday. And that kind of led you into this blast off up into 473, which was actually that peak that we marked the last time all the way from over here. So we need to get over that 462 to get to 473. That was kind of your clear path. This is your free space right here, which is interesting because we actually did hit that 473. So that's amazing. Obviously, I didn't capitalize off of it. I did not go long the spy up here. We had our other stuff. We had like Netflix and SoFi and Baba and other stuff that were a little bit more discounted and not at highs or anything. So I did not long into this, but it's cool to see the technicals played out. And we just needed that 462 break in order to get higher. And you can see there's no big rejection on 462 either and no close back under the 459.44 or the 460 level that bears needed. So this uptrend is just holding very good. You got your nine holding very cleanly. No breaks on the nine except for this one day and it gapped up the next day reclaimed and it's just been up ever since. One thing we did get was some slight resistance at the 473, which ironically is also this 1.272 Fibonacci. So not only was it the 473 all the way back from 2022 or 2021, it was also this 1.272 Fibonacci from this measurement right here. So from this peak right here down to this low, the 1.272 extension or the first breakout target was also 473.10. So that just aligned perfectly with the old resistance that we marked last week right here, this level matched right up with the actual Fibonacci breakout target, which is amazing. Obviously about a 10 cent difference, but still it was very cool to see that. That's exactly where price rejected. If you look at it in the short term, you can see there's a double top at the 473. It's also the 1.272 Fib extension and it's just been kind of going down since, chopping down nothing too crazy, but there was some downside. So now it's hard for me to see past 473 and obviously it was hard for me to see past 462 as well, but I can't really project any higher until it, you know, had a one day close over 473, then you can start thinking all-time highs. Otherwise, this is kind of just basing out. You got your one day nine e-mail down here. It might need to come back down to this and test for dip buyers to show back up and take it back up to the 473 level. Obviously it could just consolidate here as well. I honestly, I would recommend looking at other things other than the indexes, maybe even look at the QQQ. The QQQ probably has a better volatility right now than the SPY. The SPY is connected to the VIX and the VIX is stupid low right now. So we need more volatility, especially if you're gonna day trade the indexes. Obviously late-day SPX plays and stuff like that. That's gonna have volatility regardless. But in terms of swing trades and stuff like that, there's really not enough volatility right now to really aim for more upside with further out contracts. And also there's not enough volatility to really aim for downside right now and further out contracts as well. So swings are kind of tough right here at the moment because you have no signal to the downside. And also you already hit the big breakout target from 473, or I'm sorry, from 462 up to 473. So gotta be careful with that. Like I said, if it can come back down to maybe 462 one day, look for a dip buy down there. Or simply if it can come back to the one day 90 May, you can look at that as well. Obviously I'm still open for day trades on the SPY. I trade the SPY and the QQQ regardless of how high it is. Just depends on how the camera lipivots are looking. And maybe go watch my video on camera lipivots and you can figure out how to day trade with those. But in terms of swings, I really don't like anything up here. Maybe a potential pullback into the nine and you can look for a dip buy down there. But that's about it. So you have 462 up to 473. That's the current trading range. There's really no other resistance or support or anything. Obviously you could watch these short-term levels. Like you could watch this 468. That's the level to watch if it stays above that. The structure is still kind of bullish with a max low of 468.40s. So this little 468.80s to 468.40s is just short-term. Needs to hold above that probably because if it breaks down that, you got these big buy imbalance candles that can fail down. So make sure it stays over this short-term. If you want to see a run back up to 473, that's kind of the short-term thing I could see right now at the moment, but that's about it. So that's for spot. Just be careful up here. Pay attention to your one day nine moving average as well as your one day 21 EMA, which is all right here. Still trending over it. Once price pulls into it, it could be worth a watch for some upside. All right, and on to the QQQ. So last week we were just focused on the 388 as usual. This 388 was kind of our focus practically the past couple of weeks. I think we had a fib drawing there as well. I could probably re-add it here. Let me get rid of this low and this high real quick. You can go ahead and add a Fibonacci. So start here, go down to the low. That's the 388 we were focused on. And then add a Max 1.272 Fibonacci target at 439 right there. And I mentioned that I need to get over that 394 in order to get to that. And I finally was able to do that on Monday first thing. So we had a pretty bullish close on Friday, but the max upside I could only see for the time being was at 394, which is the strong resistance right here. And I was able to close over that on Monday. And you can see once it closed over that Monday, that was your straight shot up to the 1.272 extension target at the 400s. And then I went even more after that once FOMC came out. But honestly, this 1.272 is the highest I could see. That was it. So you had 394 up to 400. That was my personal high at 400 and it cleared that. And now we're basically at the all-time high level. So the all-time high is at 408.71. That's this peak right here. So that's probably the max I could see right now. Now that we've gotten over that 400 and we started closing over that, if it wanted to go higher, that's probably the most I would look for. Cause once it got up to that 408, it probably could see some big resistance on the short term at least. But we are kind of just clearing resistance as guys. I mean, it's not really seeing any resistance once we get up to any major levels on anything. Other than the short term, you might see a quick pullback, but we're not seeing anything major. Even with the closes under 388, that wasn't enough to fill this little gap right here. And it's just been going up ever since. But I really would be cautious at this 408. I mean, this is a huge level guys. It's all-time highs and it's a big psychological level and it could be really hard to clear now that we're actually there or actually near it. So just be careful of that. That's the max upside I could see. If it breaks over the 408, we'll go over some Fibonacci extension targets next week, but I'm not going to draw that out right now because we haven't broken over that yet. But if we do get that one week close or one day close over 408s, I'll go ahead and do a measurement from this high down to this. And then we can get some 1.272 extension targets, which is going to be way higher. So basically your trading range right now is just 438, which is the 1.272 Fib or this low right here that bounds perfectly. So your 1.272, oh, it's all-time high of 408. That's the trading range currently. So max high I could see the 408s. And max low I could see is obviously the 400s. I would really like to see it come back down to 400. I would definitely buy right here for a quick scalp or something. And then if it can come up to the 408s or near it, I'd be willing to try and put scalp there as well. So I want to see it pulling into one of those levels first before trying to do any day trades or anything. But obviously it just depends on camera low pivots as well. So the camera low pivots can look way different than one day levels and they work just as good. So we'll see how that goes. But these big crucial levels, 408s and 400s, I want to see something there. I really like to go long once it gets down here just for a quick day trade or go short or go with puts once it gets up to 408s. Simple as that. This mid range is just tough to go long or go short because you really don't have confirmation of anything. And you really don't have any major level here. I mean, I guess you could maybe mark this as a potential resistance. This 406 30s kind of rejected off of it on Friday, little bit towards the end of the day. And then a big pullback right here about 1%, nothing crazy, but compared to the pullbacks we've had lately, this is a pretty decent one. So watch that 406 30 as well. So that's another level to watch actually because you got one reaction right here, a small reaction right here. So it's worth noting. No idea if it will continue off of this, but just pay attention to the 406 30, the 408 71, which is the all time high. And then you want to see it pulling into support eventually, hopefully at the 400s. And last but not least, we are going on to DeVix. So last week we're just focused on the 1273 as usual. We did get that close under 1273 on Friday, which gave you that signal that it would go down to the 2019 or the 2020 blows eventually. I kind of just mentioned it could just slow grind down, which is kind of what we've been doing. Cause you can see we have one big bar and then we've just been consolidating ever since. So we had this one big bar on Tuesday and that was it. And we also hit loads of 1180. So it was about half a point away from hitting the actual 2019 to 2020 blows at 1142. It's kind of still just making its way down there. You can see that the nine EMA that we've been kind of going over the last couple of weeks is still just trending below it. Still trending under your 21. You don't have a single one day close over this, except for this one attempt right here and also one right here. They just had to follow through afterwards. No convincing close over the one day nine EMA and no convincing close over the one day 21 EMA. No convincing close over the 1273 resistance either, except for maybe this one bar right here that could have had some potential. That's about it. You can see actually the VIX came all the way up to 1273 right here, wicked off of it. And it looks like we just stayed even lower after that. So it rejected off this. See it hit the 1273 way lower and it's been staying under since. So this 1273 is a clear level you want to pay attention to and exactly why I marked these big volatility extreme points. Anything with a circle, anything with an arrow is a volatility extreme point you want to pay attention to. So it's the same thing as this week. There's really no change here. This was last Friday's close. This is this Friday's close. I have the same outlook training under the nine and 21. Obviously I kind of still have to expect volatility to go lower here at least to the 2019 to 2020 lows and maximum until it can start getting back over 1273 plus this one day nine EMA. If it can start getting over both of those, you already know my opinion, volatility could see a short term spike. So that's about it. Need to wait for that close over 1273 plus the one day nine EMA. Otherwise it looks like it's just gonna keep grinding lower down to the 2020 lows. So as simple as that guys, just pay attention to it. Fix is kind of at a stall out point here, not really going too much lower, also not going higher. You can see it hasn't really gone anywhere, which are perfect conditions for a meltup in the stock market, which we've seen on the spy, we've seen on the QQQ. You have volatility going nowhere, not really breaking down aggressively, not going up aggressively either. This is perfect conditions for a meltup. That's exactly what it's been doing. So you want to see it getting back over those volatility extreme points or getting down to a volatility extreme point, which is gonna be 2019 of 2020 lows or getting back over 1273, simple as that. So hope you guys enjoyed this video. Make sure you like, comment, and subscribe to our Xtrees YouTube channel. I'm gonna get this chopped up, sent out. I love you guys and I'm out.