 Let's move to some questions. I'm sure the law has some some questions well, thank you very much. This is quite interesting and Especially when the the conference is about Responding to crisis so And the the way I see it is not if There will be crisis what is when and maybe it is time for Why in this case the UN and the World Bank especially To put more resources to prevent or minimize the risk of conflict in that area the Good thing in my mind is that the two countries Egypt and Ethiopia have a long history of not being democratic tradition of empire kingdom and The time is short for the Three years if I got it right for the benefit to be realized so Maybe time to invest In what I will call dictatorship is tungsten CC in Egypt in a set of trying to Focus of democratization of Egypt by this state so that and More resources on the security sector by way of educating them and Professor you mentioned the age the Contribution of the agriculture in GDP will reduce from 11 to less than 5% in how many years so Okay, and So the economy is moving to a service sector and maybe agriculture. I mean industry This were also in order to compensate The fear is also maybe push more industries Moving from China to wherever to Egypt so that you employ more people who will be causing problems so they got to be some real in Targeted investment in terms of the Egypt it's you for the same thing. I think Ethiopia would be For them to accelerate then help them build the transmission lines for the exportation of the Hydro power electricity and maybe discourage like South Sudan instead of also we're thinking of creating our own Hydro power and fuller repeats and others and Enforcing in cooperation so that why do since we have oil Encourage South Sudan say don't focus on the go for division of labor so specialized in your oil leave the power to be imported from Ethiopia and The same thing I think can also go through to Sudan instead of Trying to also expand on Hydro-electric power Focus on agriculture for the time being and also import from from from Ethiopia so that force Through denial basing initiative, I think they are need to go back I think when it came up some of us were excited that is going to resolve some of the problem But there seem to be a slowdown. Maybe it is time for Hydro diplomacy we're talking about need to be Push up but focus in the in the region by the way the Juba now is more closer to Cairo. That's also that and Recently the the the talk of bringing regional protection force the 4,000 troops from the region South Sudan is resisting said okay if don't bring from my neighbors Don't bring from Ethiopia and Kenya and Uganda who prefer bring from Rwanda and Egypt and then Ethiopia is getting nervous about it they don't want Ethiopian mean Egyptian troops in in South Sudan But what South Sudan is there Some of us we are saying it is time for a smart diplomacy and Maybe get nearer to Egypt and so that you will also neutralize cartoon in supporting the rebels will also neutralized Ethiopia but this is I think this is a big challenge, but I feel is something achievable if you focus on compensation and giving what I said earlier that Make some trade-off between democracy and some dictatorship in those two countries Egypt and and And Ethiopia for this project to succeed. Thank you Okay, I know very very little about this I came to sort of find out some things But but let me let me just try to ask a couple of things And About about the insurance idea might be interesting to know more about how the system works in Senegal and to what extent the Senegal River And to what extent it's transferable But who does the insurance and who exactly gets insured who would be that who would be the people that would run this Who gets insured and also the point about data is really important Where's the data going to come from a truly can't come from the two the two parties? That can hardly be trusted. Can it so just a bit more detail about About how that would actually work and maybe the comparison with the Senegal case would be interesting It's just what I ask a bit and Changing the focus a little bit that the sort of results of the model you you are presenting about the impact on Egypt and Of of the of the change the change in the water Is the big impact on agriculture is that where the big impact is or what other impacts does it have in the Egyptian economy? And in particular, why was there a big impact on urban workers? I mean I could see how rural workers would be affected But there's presumably something more than agriculture going on here But obviously I you didn't talk too much about the detail of the model, but it'd be interesting to to see Okay Yeah, let me do that. Why if that's the freshest Literally those last results were quite fresh and we were working on them by by a Skype, but what we think is happening is that agro industry is huge in in Egypt so much so that they take their Egyptian long stable cotton Export it and import short stable cotton mainly from Pakistan to keep the Textile industry going and so a lot of their industries are agro industries So if you're hitting agriculture, you're going to then hit those urban workers as I think is what's happening there The other is that what the model allows you to do is basically in the model hydro is free and so you have a certain certain amount of free free Electricity and then you have to pay for the fossil fuel and You can there's enough capacity in the system to easily make up for the losses But you have to pay it at a much higher rate The other thing about Egyptian agriculture why we're seeing the urban is what this is a whole other story on development economics When the high as one dam came into being in 1973 they doubled the the amount of energy that was available to the country so they brought in all these energy-intensive industries so particularly Aluminum smelting and bauxite and so now they have very high energy use because it was plentiful So now as you're starting you you have this economy that's high energy intensive And then you hit its energy because by taking the hydro your pause the economy Responds because that factor now is more expensive and it's felt on on the pack on the economy so We I think that's what maybe go what that's what's going on here I I would look to the specific sectors but because you can import as much as you want to keep going it goes to the margin of Keeping it, but then then it stops so there's movement quite a bit And then there's also a big shifting of the crops Egypt currently only provides 40% of its own food it imports 60% of its food Which is equivalent to one year's Nile flow of Irrigation so you it's basically like having it's called virtual water and Tony Allen from University College he came up with this a long time ago, but it's really an important one for Egypt They're basically bringing in another Nile of food and equivalents and so that can be imported as well And but that's a little bit tough It's a little bit tougher in the system because 60% of employment is ag so you really hit that and you see the wage going down if because the model is full employment So they everybody's working, but you just get the wage cutting down and it hit household consumption as well So I think that's what's going on in terms of the model and then the other thing about the insurance Is that something that's come in the last few days with with Maria and I? Brainstorming and again, I totally agree that if the if it goes to The governments I think will have more revolts if somehow we ensure the farmers themselves It might be the political buy-in that we need because how do they know? You know they get something from Swiss re that says if we call this in you get paid That I think would help sell it more than because they don't trust their own governments They might trust us we I don't know But they're starting an Egypt crop insurance so at least for Egypt that that's interesting I mean Egypt's easier because the insurance really is in the power industry And that's sort of a selling that in Egypt It's literally with with the the 600, you know the 60 million fellow heen who are gonna get here Right Giga what hours So it's how Sudan Kenya and all of them are in doubt naturally Geothermal water and what we are where do you think you're saying this excessive power? I'm just curious I have Maria. What is what's your thoughts from being there recently? Yeah, I mean Ethiopia they basically they are planning to sell to all their neighbors That that's the plan that I mean they're also looking into possibilities to selling into Middle East I mean, that's that's how what they say officially so that I mean Sudan will be a main importer, but They are looking at I mean generally in Africa. We know there is a shortage of power huge shortage So over time if you could connect the East African power pool with the Southern African power pool That would be fantastic because then I mean the demand is enormous But that's we're not there yet, but over time I think definitely the demand is there I think that the real difficulty is in the short term to keep up with the building of transmission lands and of course also Using this, you know with local connections and the possibilities for industry and so on to use this all this has to match So it's a sequencing problem. I think So yeah, I see a challenge to sell it in in the shorter term I mean, there is a huge Development going on in Ethiopia with them. We see this impact also on the expansion of Addis Ababa and land claims around Addis Ababa and which leads to the upracing of Oromo people and so on So these are part of the expansion plans So Ethiopia is really counting on an extremely big increase of demand for in the country itself But yeah, so if I if we could speak frankly, I'm not sure that the governments are all speaking a hundred percent truthfully and it's a really interesting issue because if you're living with a An American term a pipe dream if you're living with a false hope and you're making your negotiations with Egypt Based on the idea that you will be able to sell and even get to sell So you have the connections the the as much energy as you can generate then You could slow that's why we looked at the five, you know the three-year seven-year five-year or even more What if you can't sell it? Why are you hurting Egypt for something that you're not even going to be able to do anything with? And all good economists know what happens if you have a surplus the value is low Why are you forcing yourself to rapidly fill and have a potential to generate if there's no Customers one or two you don't have the connections to sell it So what you get from some of the Egyptian, you know in the Egyptian is not one voice I mean Ethiopians are not one voice. They say do not worry We will use every kilowatt hour generated by the GERD domestically And if you talk to anyone they just laugh because give a threes coming online I mean this 40,000 megawatts of potential in Ethiopia They call it the you know the walk the tower the power tower of Africa So that long term so right now if you're rushing and then you can have a surplus sitting there It's not good to run a turbine and not run the generator You can't run the generator if you can't send the electricity So it's a really big problem of even getting the water out So I think we have to match expectations and realities the other side is There is huge amount of work which was part of a separate project that Channing and I led On Africa energy futures, which is they're building power pools There's a southern African power pool the central African power pool West and there's East African power pool and there is the potential to connect them and do what we call wielding power So we know South Africa would take every Every electron of green energy it could from Ethiopia if those connections those connections are probably easier Than a connection to Germany, which I heard in Ethiopia and talking about okay, you know sending it to England Channing's the world's expert now on underwater transmission cables. I didn't believe it. It's true And it could you know underneath to Italy and get it to Italy and the Germans would buy so there are those things But I think that's where visions and dreams can actually harm you Because if you run too fast to have the damn fool hurting Egypt and and not leading to negotiations it could be a Hollow victory because you don't have anything to do with it It's good. You don't have to be as diplomatic as I have Is there a Bernice or is there another question? Maybe I could just comment on My question is my question is how to build trust and confidence among between Ethiopia and Egypt given the political and the economic situations in both countries for instance the Ethiopian government usually use and Consider the current uprising Because of some external forces under quotation And I think there is such kind of excuse also in Egypt. So how do you build the trust and confidence? Thank you No, this is exactly I mean what we need to do and it's it's not the quick fix that's for sure But I believe in dialogue dialogue and dialogue and meetings and meetings over time where actually people themselves Changed perspectives. I mean just as an example the training of journalists. We did recently Yes, that the journalists from Ethiopian Egypt sat together and talked about You know with each other about their fears dreams and so on I mean that over time it actually contributes to some kind of trust building and difference We see from that just from that little meeting like was a five-day exercise We see 50 articles have been written mostly by Egyptian journalists stating facts Also talking about the needs of Ethiopia to develop and so on very balanced reporting and I think those things I mean, that's a small thing and you need to continue on all those different levels and involve all those different actors To you know also Show them alternatives What are the benefits of cooperation where all the possibilities because it's so much based now on misperceptions this whole mistrust So just by over and over again demonstrate the possibilities and show new facts exactly this kind of facts That's coming out from this research. I think can make a huge impact So just by disseminating new knowledge bring people together that can come up with new ideas and Get to know each other and that's I think is it's not an easy process But it just needs to go on and we all need to do it and continuing on that. I just wanted to also mention There was a question that you the UN should do more and the international community should do more I I fully agree with you, but there's also a thing you have to be invited I mean, you can't just talk and if nobody wants to listen so you have to Be invited and for that the partners also have to trust you if it's the UN or another party So sometimes I mean the UN can be very good because it's perceived as a neutral part While some other diplomatic forces might not be perceived as so neutral so and So you have to look at those different actors But then also on the issue of Sudan and the embargo of course that has a It's a problem in itself and there's a discussions right now in and in New York about Human rights and so on and so I mean you have to look at all this political context and somehow take them into account I I must say we're quite happy that we can work closely With Sudan as well in all kinds of meetings and so on that has hasn't been a problem, but It's something we need to take into account All the time So I want to give an example of what she's talking about that was successful It may be expensive example, but two hundred million dollars spent on the the Nile Basin initiative when I started working on the Nile in 1977 I was forbidden working with Egypt to look upstream look south out of outside of Egypt and Their butrus butrus golly who was prime minister who then became UN secretary Declared if anybody touched the Nile he would use the planes he had to bomb them and There was total misunderstanding misperception amongst all the country as a result of the NBI in trainings and activities and then the Nile DSS There is now amongst the water professionals, which is a success They understand the the work going on that the model that I use was developed by an Egyptian For Ethiopia and Uganda and the whole Nile with an Ethiopian who was funded by Wider Johannes Kepersadek funded his PhD. So what has been doing their part? He's back in the basin working there So at the technical level if you put the technicians in the room a week later You could get a plan because they now trust each other and I'm going to make a real strong spin There's enough data to make an agreement now. We know enough. We use data as an excuse now We we know enough. We've tried these different things. There's only so hope you know Evaporation we can model the satellites. Tell us what's going on So so and then the other thing is it's the coming crisis. So to make this is ending There's a crisis right now that dam is going to fill and In the point that we just talked about with the energy Let's not exacerbate the the crisis by Having false hopes about selling the hydropower and well We just want to be able to have the dam full in case we get the power Well, they're going to release it if they don't have it the other coming crisis. There's two things really Affecting this whole solution So we can need to get an agreement to fill and we don't have to worry about long term long term greenhouse gases and Climate change is a huge threat to the Nile and it's one of the places where there's the most uncertainty and the range of models show a 50% decrease to a 40% to 70% increase in flows If that's going to dwarf anything of what the GERD is doing and then the other thing is NBI just finished a report that If you take all the master plans of all the countries in the Nile basin and add up how much water use They are planning to do by 2050 it. It's twice the flow of the Nile River So the population growth Uganda is going from 38 million to 80 million with probability of 0.9 That's in the inner band The pressures on them on the river is something that has to go beyond the river We have to have a regional development and we maybe want to make Sudan be the bread basket of the region which is unacceptable to Egypt and others now You know if you can use one third of less water in Egypt to grow Bersim, I mean in Sudan, maybe we should grow it there and You grow more and then trade it and some kind of trade union in the base Those are the longer things that maybe wider can work on regional cooperation Economics as the Nile grows, but the short-term crisis is a water crisis going to a regional development crisis in an economic development crisis thrown in on top of cultural and political and religious Things so if I want to get depressed I think about that, but we're trying to get ahead. Oh, Dominique Okay I Actually you and I meant Maybe the US to play a more role because it has good relation with artists and Cairo and Use the security council in order to prevent the crisis coming. That's what I meant So it's not just the UN but the the the power the power of powerful boys and girls in the UN security council Sweden is now coming into the security council. So we can You discussed obviously like proposal and things like that between you but I would like to hear like what are the concrete plans now? I mean, do you Are any meetings planned? Can why the player role potentially in some of these I mean discuss some of the outreach thing in the planning of some of this project, but I Would say a quick thing and then we should talk over dinner or tomorrow morning With I think there's a huge role and we've been trying to talk together About because I think the role is feudal for you know We can have economists talk one-to-one and they'll agree and tell me why I didn't use a fourth order polynomial instead of wavelets I But I think I think wider wider has always been something that shanning has said wider has a convening role And maybe it's something that in in next year. We can work together We were trying for this get together and have a meeting in the basin or here or groving in the basin at the capitals Where we present this work in a broad spectrum bringing in you know from Journalists to politicians and and really present this and say what do you think with this work that was done? You know we would bring you know Kevin and there's a few others So I've been working alongside of this that are in the community and can quote you the flow of Cartoon over the last hundred years from their memory, you know bring a few of those people led by wider I think that would be a really good thing and we can talk maybe relate about how we could do that but With it's you know, it's where my heart is having worked there for for 40 years And I want to thank Channing and you Dominic for you know funding this and giving us this opportunity Well with that can I oh yes, yes, please quickly. Are you please go ahead? I Just wanted to also respond to what we're planning We are from our side planning to follow up to another workshop with media And we are planning actually to pick up what the list of it real talked about this morning and do a training for female leaders in water diplomacy to Involve new actors, but we are also discussing to have an academic seminar in cartoon second half of November So I haven't discussed this with these guys, but we are also being involved in studies on foreign investments in land development So that research need to be presented. So maybe it's an opportunity to already in November do a joint Seminar in cartoon Can you do an artist I'll be John Thanks, thanks to our our two Speakers should all be thankful. We didn't have three speakers. We would have missed dinner, right? Yeah but but So so thanks to speakers and thanks everybody for for showing up and and thanks for being here for the for the conference Thanks for some really good questions