 Like most of us who are alive at the time. I know exactly where I was on 9-11 when I heard the news I Watched the towers crumble on a tiny TV screen in a hotel lobby in Jerusalem of all places And I remember thinking at the time this is happening. This is actually happening. I don't want it to be real So 20 years later here we are There are things happening right now that I really don't want to be real either But right now I'm going to focus with you on climate change In February this year people across Texas froze to death inside their own homes as an Unprecedented winter storm kicked off this cascading failure that shut down the grid and water systems all over the place It didn't have to be that way. This was partly the result of bad decisions on repairs and maintenance Things that were never done that could have been done and but now the cleanup costs are exceeding a hundred billion dollars The only thing that's cost the state more than that was Hurricane Harvey in 2017 This summer we saw the other extreme with a heat dome absolutely cooking the Western part of the country Portland, Oregon hit 116 degrees Fahrenheit and There's a deepening water crisis across that whole region. It's now in its second decade of a mega drought There are fires everywhere burning out of control hotter worse than ever especially in my home state of California and 2021 isn't even over yet. We're still in the middle of hurricane season This is happening we don't want it to be real and Decades of a well-funded disinformation and deception campaign have allowed many of us to believe that it's not real But climate change is actually unmistakably happening and brace yourselves Because it's going to get worse So what does it mean men to have climate security and what is the future of climate security? Specifically, what does it mean for the Department of Defense in the United States and for the defense mission? So climate security really at its roots means Weather and water conditions that are favorable to human civilization and to the natural ecosystems that we need to survive and to thrive So we have that security now Not everyone has reliable or equitable access to those resources and not everyone has perfect mild sunny weather But there's enough for everyone and it's pretty much survivable everywhere That kind of climate security is actually more the exception than the norm in the geological history of the earth Which has been encased in ice and noxious gases at points But for the last 10,000 years We've had a largely stable climate and it's allowed humanity to really flourish to settle to cultivate To a whole string of amazing discoveries Unfortunately, that is not what the future of climate security looks like right now. No matter what we do We're going to see 30 years of more volatile weather and rising sea levels. So what we've seen in 2021 only probably worse This is the hangover of the industrial age the change that's locked into earth systems from 200 years of burning fossil fuels Now what comes after that 30-year period depends entirely on whether nations of the world can cut greenhouse gas emissions But the scale and scope of that of what we have to do is just staggering. It's a monumental undertaking Think of everything that you will do today or that you've done today Not just driving your car or flying in a plane But all the things you plug in the plastic bottle that your shampoo comes in or the wrappers that around all of your food The air conditioning that maybe is still on and that you relied on to get through this miserable summer Fossil fuels are embedded in so many of your choices. It's part of the pattern of our society With the disparity in the quality of life between the United States and almost everywhere else Everyone's tried to follow in our footsteps One result of that is that the world today consumes 35 billion barrels of oil four trillion cubic feet of natural gas and eight billion tons of coal every year Carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere are higher than they've been in two million years So that's pretty much a worst-case scenario trajectory, which means the future of climate security is not bright And that's certainly what the latest United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report says and it also says we're running out of time to fix that before it's too late To do anything to protect climate security I'm not optimistic. I'm not we can't even persuade half of our population or a little over half of our population To get vaccinated in the middle of a pandemic that will kill them So I'm not optimistic, but I'm a pragmatist and so we have to try we have to we must Which ways do we have really and the fact is that there are many things we can do I think it starts with making sure that our infrastructure and our social systems are more resilient to natural disasters And we just have this new bipartisan infrastructure bill that I think will help And it's also not just about money. It's or new money at any rate It's also about making sure that other funds that we do spend we spend in a climate smart way We also we have to invest in innovation that means radical energy efficiency new forms of energy But also just different patterns of consumption, you know, electric vehicles are a good start although they really do continue the pattern We just learned during COVID that we can break from the past in a radical way when we really have to like working at home Which consumes a great deal less energy We we can cooperate with other countries and make sure that that everyone has access to the science and the technologies and the investment They need to succeed in a post fossil fuel global economy And the United States will only make it if we have partners and allies in this and that includes our biggest adversaries You know, we can't do this without China Now I don't really trust authoritarian governments to keep the promises they make But I do believe that if we find a better way to live in cooperation with our allies and our partners I have no doubt that China will be the next adopter So climate security also has a narrower meeting as it applies to the US Department of Defense and that's been going on for a while I mean think for more than a decade DoD's looked at You know, largely at how to adapt to changing conditions in the operating environment So high heat for example affects the performance of equipment and of course of people And also they've looked at they've assessed the climate vulnerability of hundreds of military bases They and they've gotten an object lesson in what that vulnerability actually looks like in practice in recent years There's been billions of dollars in damage to bases in florida and nebraska north carolina and texas and i'm sure california is also struggling these days So DoD is going to have to do more to understand those risks for sure But also is going to have to invest in resilience They may even have to consider closing Particularly vulnerable bases and the communities around those bases should consider that and take it seriously So beyond the impacts to bases climate change is going to shape military missions most obviously disaster response Now i've heard directly from uniformed and civilian DoD officials That they describe these missions as sort of a distraction from core warfighting business Or an opportunity cost or even a dollar cost that they don't think they should have to pay So forgive me for being blunt, but if you're watching this and you hold that opinion, it's time for you to get over it The american people have made a big investment in the armed forces and a much smaller investment in fema And the state department's office of foreign disaster assistance So when when the disaster strikes and they need help, they're going to expect you to be there when they need you So by all means you should certainly consider the consequences to readiness of a rising op tempo for disaster relief But it's really time to stop complaining and start planning ahead No, there's no reason for example that you can't engage with states and cities and other countries To build resilience left of the boom or what civilian disaster managers call blue sky times That would be a great mission for the national guard You know for that matter This gives you a lifeline with the american public and with global public opinion at a time When there may be a loss in support for the armed forces and also for the defense mission So there are other more indirect ways that climate change will affect the defense mission And and really these are consequential. They'll reshape the geopolitical landscape The most obvious of those is is in the arctic And sometimes you get this baffling enthusiasm from strategists about the sort of new geopolitical contests there And it's true. There's an entirely new ocean opening a new sea line of communication Newly recoverable resources the russians are rattling their sabers the chinese are looking for more land and icebreakers and all of this But I don't really think there's anything to get excited about in this because If we really get to the point where we have a blue arctic, we've got bigger problems Because that means catastrophic climate change is well underway And that's when we'll see the really big impacts to global security All those slow and sudden disasters I talk about but also all the ripple effects like higher food prices and forced migration Those impacts are going to interact with other factors like a history of conflict Like a weak government or you know poor rule of law There will be broadly destabilizing consequences of climate change at that point And in fact, it's already a factor. You can see it in places like the sahel or in the Horn of Africa So in his first week in office president biden directed the pentagon to do a climate risk analysis to understand this better It's finished now. Um, but I I think it's only the beginning Just like you wouldn't use data analysis from the future vertical lift to tell you what ground combat vehicle to buy You wouldn't want to use data and analysis about how climate change is going to affect china Or the 40 percent of china that has good land and water and where all the people live You wouldn't want to use data for that to tell you What's going to happen in central america and the way that it might empower criminal networks and and drive out migration You need to take each situation its own merits and understand what the risks are So the administration is also plusing up spending in this area And I think we'll see much more significant dollars committed in the fiscal year 2023 budget You know at the same time not every significant initiative is going to be all about money So for example recently the pentagon required that its defense contractors We didn't require it requested that its defense contractors submit information about their greenhouse gas emissions In their supply chain in their in what they make for the department in their own corporate practices And I think all of that is a prelude To stronger energy and climate resilience requirements and specifications in the acquisition process So the big defense company should be ready for that and it would be nice if they saw that as a comparative advantage or a competitive advantage And not just something that they have to comply with So I think also that the administration realistically is going to ask the department of defense to cut greenhouse gas emissions It's coming and that's fair On the other hand, you know much has been made about the fact that dod is the largest emitter Of greenhouse gas emissions in the country and it's true. It does have a big carbon footprint In 2020 alone they bought 87 million barrels of petroleum fuels that cost them 10 billion dollars Another four billion dollars in electricity. That's a lot But that's only one institution and in fact 98 of all consumption energy consumption And greenhouse gas emissions in the country come from the civilian sector. So that's where the action needs to be You know the economic development the innovation the investment that it's going to take to actually get climate security Those are civilian responsibilities for the most part the private sector civil society civilian agencies and all of us personally You know at the same time, that's all what we need to do in the near term As I said, the future of climate security is not bright and we're on the path to a worst case scenario And in fact, it may already be too late That un climate report talked all about tipping points like the melting of of ice the melting of permafrost like The vast ocean currents that control the climate are slowing down Any of those if they happen could be a total game changer If those happen or if we fail to cut emissions then the future of climate security will mean something else altogether And it will very much be a defense mission in my opinion So because such profound natural insecurity and all of that will come with it There will be a contest for resources everything from potable water to productive land There will be lots of displacement and unsettled and unsettled conditions It's it's going to mean more conflict. There's no way that it won't and the truth is we don't really know when that might happen That could be the world my great-grandchildren will inherit after the turn of the century Or that could be my own reality in the next two decades. We just can't be sure What we can be sure of is that this is happening This is actually really happening And if you're in the defense industry or in the armed forces And you're assuming that the current efforts on climate Security will pass in the next election. I do hope you'll reconsider Because we as a people cannot afford to keep making this political or optional There's just a sliver of hope right now and we all need to grab it if we want any chance of future climate security