 What's up, Navigation Traders? Welcome to this week's video update. Today is Friday, October 18th. Hope everybody had a great week of trading. We are here to present all of the positions, all of our trade alerts, for the week, exclusively for our pro members. Before we jump into the alerts, let's go to the community and talk about who got caught being hot this week. This week goes to a member who shared a trade idea earlier in the week. Actually late last week I think, but it closed out today. Ended up being over a 70% winner. It was a weekly double calendar and SPX. It was actually a little bit different than the way that we set it up. But it was a great find because the risk-reward ratio was excellent and everything was great. I actually took it as well. It wasn't an alert, but hopefully some of you others took it as well. Ended up being a 70% winner. And as I said here, if you are looking for a way to win the hot award, posting trades that makes us money is always a good bribe. So please help me in congratulating Nourage S. Congrats, Nourage. You got caught being hot. And for your contributions, you get some navigation swag. So congrats, pick yourself up a t-shirt or a mug and sport it everywhere you go. Everybody is going to be wondering what a trade hacker is, and then you can let them know. So congrats. Let's jump into the alerts for the week starting with Monday the 14th. First trade that we put on the 14th was XRT. So we added a short strangle in XRT with 32 days to expiration. Implied volatility had popped up. The IV percentile was at 54 when we entered this trade. So if we go to the platform and take a look at XRT, you can see when we put it on, it was up above that 50 level. It contracted significantly and then it popped up a little bit today, but still in good shape. We've got about a 50, almost $60 profit so far, just waiting for some more time to pass before we do anything there. You'll notice it's kind of a tighter iron condor. Reason being is XRT is only a $42 product. By the way, if you hear some noise in the background, I'm not at my normal trading battle station. I'm suffering here on the hardcore beaches of California. My room is right over the beach. So if you hear some waves or things going on, that's what it is. Sorry, I have to deal with it. Unfortunately, I know it's tough, but I'm going to have to share it with you guys as well. So anyway, that's XRT. If we go back to the trade alerts. Next trade, another opening trade. We did a new iron duck in SPX. We did this one out long-term with 21 days to expiration. I've talked about if the market is kind of up, if implied volatility is lower, sometimes we like to go further out, collect more credit. Whereas if implied volatility gets higher, sometimes we'll do some shorter-term trades in the iron duck arena. So in this case, we did a 21-day. And the other kind of difference here than exactly what I taught in the course is typically we're doing these one strike wide, which is five points. In this case, we did it two strikes wide, which is 10 points on that call spread. And basically what that does, it gives us a smaller beak profit. But in the max profit in the duckhead area, it gives us a larger credit. It gives us a larger max profit. So just kind of a preference to kind of layer these in with different kind of widths. On SPX, we're typically only going to do five or 10 points wide on that call spread. In this case, we chose 10. And you'll typically get those opportunities where you can still have no risk to the upside and a much bigger max profit when you go a little bit further out, a little bit longer duration. And so let's take a look at that one. So if we go to SPX, we actually have two different iron ducks in SPX now. And so if we widen this out so you can see a little better, let's scoot this up. So you can see all the strikes that we have. So this is the one that I just mentioned. So you can see the duck beak profit is about $135. So if it continues to rally and ends up anywhere in this beak profit area, we make 135 bucks. If we're able to get it to come back down into this max profit area, we have the potential to book over $1,100, $1,135. So right now if we put their price slice to break even, right now it's at over 92% probability of expiring inside that break even. So we're in good shape there. The other iron duck that we have is this one here, which is in the October 25th options. And you can see right here, now the market's closed. So that P&L line may not be quite accurate. It could be. I'm not sure, but let's move our expiration down to the 26th, which is when our options expire. Oops, that's October 26th. And so you can see we've got about 96% chance of making money on this one. And so we'll continue to hold on and manage that. Like I said, that one expires October 25th. So we got some room to roam on that one. Next alert was a closing trade in Goldman Sachs. So we had a long put vertical on that we initially put on for some short delta, some short bias. And held it, rolled it for a couple of cycles, held it through earnings after earnings, even though a lot of the banks had the prices went up in the stocks after earnings, Goldman actually went down, which is helpful for us. We ended up just closing it out after the earnings announcement, booked a nice profit. And so we are out of Goldman Sachs. Next trade was a closing trade in KRE. So we had two different pieces of two different short strangles in KRE. This was our last one. And we ended up closing it out, booked a nice profit on KRE overall, implied volatilities contracted significantly in KRE like it has across the board. And so, well, it actually popped up today. I didn't see that towards the end of the day. So if implied volatility stays high in the next week, we may look to re-enter this, but we are out now, booked a nice profit on KRE overall. Next trade, closing trade in Beyond Meat. This was unfortunate. Beyond Meat, we had an earnings trade. Actually, I'm sorry, it was a broken wing iron butterfly. This was not over earnings. Price moved lower, just continued to keep falling in Beyond Meat. We ended up just closing out for a loss. Let's go to Beyond and check out the charts, BYND. I mentioned this in the community as well. We put this on on 10-10, ended up taking it off on the 15th. And you can see it just continued to slide the next few days as well. But this is the kind of thing, if we zoom in a little bit, this is the kind of thing where we have a huge buffer to the downside on these iron ducks, or in this case, a broken wing iron butterfly. But this thing dropped over 12% in three days. So you're not going to win that battle when you're doing delta neutral or range bound type trades. That's a huge move and it's moved significantly lower since then as well. So took a loss on that one, which is going to happen. I've had some conversations with a couple of folks. Via email and the community and they're saying, oh gosh, I thought these were 90% winning trades. And the reality is they are, or in this case, a broken wing butterfly is closer to 80. But guess what? That also means 10% or 20% can be losers. So just because it's a 90% win percentage doesn't mean it's 100%. And so it's really important to continue to keep your position size in check to make sure those losing trades don't hurt you. So I took a little loser there, but that's okay. We've had quite a few other winners. Next trade was a rolling adjusting trade in 6B. So this is the British pound. These were in the November cycle as the way TOS displays them. The cycle of 23 days to expiration. So we rolled it out to the December cycle with 51 at that time. And we rolled up our puts. So the puts had very little value in them because the price had run up, breached our short strike to the upside, breached our short call. So we rolled up our puts and with 23 days we just rolled it out to the next cycle. So if we take a look at 6B, and this thing's just had a crazy run. Now keep in mind there is a Brexit. We talked about this in the community as well. There is a Brexit situation going on this weekend. I think on Saturday over the weekend. So implied volatility has stayed pretty bid. If we look at FXB, which is the corresponding ETF, you can see IV percentile 87, IV rank at 81. So really high. I mean these options are pumped up in anticipation of that announcement. And so there was some back and forth in the community with a couple people about our 6B position. Do we take it off because of this announcement? And the answer to that as far as we're concerned is always no. We don't make decisions based on news. We're in this trade because implied volatility is high. We're in this trade because uncertainty is high. And that's what makes the option prices elevated. So if this thing explodes higher over this weekend, that is going to hurt our position. We're sitting right here with our break evens about right here. So just not too much room to the upside. So the conversation in the community was, hey, if you're nervous about this to the point where you're uncomfortable with the amount of risk you're taking, then close it out. But for us, we keep our position size small enough relative to our account size so that no matter what happens, this isn't going to hurt us. I mean, we don't like losing money by any means. But the fact is that most likely scenario is that implied volatility is going to contract after this announcement, which is what we want. That's going to benefit our position. The other thing I look at is, okay, look at this massive move before the announcement. Is that an overreaction? Well, we don't know. I mean, this thing could explode higher. Nothing says it can't. But it's almost like, okay, how much of this is already priced in? And if it is overreacting, if it has extended itself to the upside and price does move down some and implied volatility does contract, well, guess what? That's exactly what we, whoops, how to switch. That's exactly what we want. We would love price to come down some. We want implied volatility contract. So for us, we're keeping this position on. But everybody has to make that decision for themselves. Just because we have this position on and we're comfortable with this risk doesn't have anything to do with your risk tolerance. So make sure that you are always trading according to your risk tolerance and your position sizing and account size. Next trade, rolling adjusting trade in DE. So we rolled our short call vertical in DE. We're in October with just two days. So anytime within expiration week, we're going to look to roll these. And this is a defined risk spread. So we just rolled this out to the next, actually, we skipped over November, all the way up to December with 65 days to expiration. Now, we typically like to stay in that 30 to 60. But with a defined risk, more of a directional play, we're okay with going a little bit out. So in this case, we just skipped over November, went right to December. We're keeping this on for some of that short delta exposure in our portfolio. We just adjusted the strikes accordingly. And so if we take a look at DE, it's right here. So pretty close to where we rolled it. Just looking for some more downside to benefit that trade. By the way, speaking of short delta, I know we got a lot of new members here. So just to kind of clarify when I say short delta, we like to keep a range of having a little bit of short bias in our portfolio. Anytime you are trading range bound premium selling type strategies, the biggest thing that can hurt you is those violent moves lower. So we'd like to keep a little bit of a short bias. And the way that we gauge that is based on the amount of beta weighted short delta. So for example, our short bias amongst all our positions in our portfolio. And the way we look at that is we beta weight all our positions to SPY. And if you don't know what that means, what I would suggest is go to our blog. There's a couple blog posts and videos. One's called how to trade options like a professional. The other one is called how to delta hedge your portfolio, I think. Anyway, they are a couple good videos that kind of explains that whole concept. And it's important to know just, you know, you don't have to follow exactly the way that we do it, but it's important to at least be aware of what your overall directional bias is of all your positions. Because if you put on a bunch of positions and they end up being all kind of short bias positions, well, guess what, if the market rallies and rips higher, you're going to get killed. Conversely, if all your positions are bullish, then in the market tanks, you're going to get killed. And so we like to, we don't always just try to keep it delta neutral, but we have a little bit of a short bias. And so the parameters that we use and that we've kind of molded over time to kind of fit what we want to do is we have a range. So the amount of theta that we have in our portfolio, which is the daily time decay. So let's say that adds up to be $100. So that means if price and volatility and everything stays exactly the same, we're going to be earning $100 per day. This is, that's not what our portfolio is, but just as an example, if our theta is 100, then we want our short delta, our short beta weighted delta that's beta weighted to SPY. We want that to be anywhere from five to one versus our theta. So right now we have about, so for every $100 of theta that we have in our portfolio, we're at about a two to one ratio. So we have about negative 200 short delta beta weighted to SPY. So that's how we kind of gauge our overall bias. And these videos that I mentioned will tell you more, but basically what we want to do is, I mean, we're trading the British pound, oil, nat gas, S&Ps, different stocks. And so it's kind of like, how do you compare apples and oranges and pineapples and bananas? Well, beta weighting it all to SPY kind of puts those all in the same similar, similar basket. So we can kind of compare apples to apples. And that's, so that's what we do. So we'd like to have a ratio of anywhere from one to one to five to one on our short delta versus our theta. So right now we're right at about two to one, which is right where we want to be. It's perfect, perfect kind of scenario. All right, moving on next trade, opening trade in IBM. So what we did here is we did a earnings iron duck, meaning it's an iron duck, just like we teach in part two of the course IBM was announcing earnings. And so we entered an iron duck. And just like we do with iron ducks, if our loss were to exceed 100% of our initial credit value, we would close that. So max profit or initial credit was 369. We ended up closing this out today and booked over 200 bucks. Let's see what we do if we're going to close trades. Booked 210 out of a possible 369. Had we held it all the way up to the bell, had a late day rally, we could have booked max profit of 369. But of course, if it would have turned around the other way, we could have taken a loss. So it was kind of hanging around right around that lower break even all day. And we gave it some time and it did rally up, but we took it off for a good profit. But hopefully you guys got even better than we did. All right. So next trade. We also did a earnings iron duck in Netflix. And Netflix just had blowout earnings. I don't even know what the numbers were. I don't really even care. But what happened was the stock price rose significantly. And so we just ended up taking the beak profit. You can see the very next trade. It was so far high. It was so far up there that we just went ahead and closed that out to free up capital and avoid potential assignment risk. Now, if you didn't take profits there, there was a crazy move in Netflix today. It came all the way back down. Let's go to Netflix and FLX. And I mean, this was just a huge move. And typically, I'll hold on to this. If there's really a slight chance of it coming back into that duckhead max profit area, which is way up here, where it opened, way up here, 304. The next day, today, it came all the way down to 275. I mean, that's a pretty massive move. So had you held it, you actually would have done better than what we did. We just took it out for the max profit because the chance of this happening was so slim. I have had conversations with people. It's like, you're already a max profit. You can't lose money if it continues higher. Why even take it off for a chance like this? And the reality is you could keep it on. One of the reasons we took it off is it is a stock. Our call side was so deep in the money that if somebody did keep it on, they may have already been assigned short shares of Netflix before this happened. But if not, or even if they did and it did fall like this, that would have been beneficial. But we don't play for three standard deviations moves like you're seeing here. Although I hope you guys did keep it or fell asleep and didn't take it off or whatever. But we got out for a small duck beak profit, which ended up being 112 bucks. So better than a sharp stick in the eye. Next trade was in wheat. So we added an iron condor in wheat yesterday. And we did this in the December cycle of 36 days to expiration. And we also had another iron condor on. And the very next trade today was it price had breached our upside break even. So we went ahead and closed out the untested side, which was the put vertical side. And we left the call vertical side on. And then we, of course, added this one the day before. So now we got two pieces on in wheat. So let's take a look at wheat. Having a nice big move to the upside in wheat over the last several days. So here's our remaining call vertical side. So the goal is to hold this. I mean, we've got, what do we got? 35 days. So we've got some time. So if price comes back down into range, we'll close that one out. And, you know, potentially book a profit on that piece. And then the one that we added, we added a new centered iron condor around the current price. Same cycle because there's 30 some days to expiration. So we didn't go out to the next one, but this one's dead centered. You can see right here. So just holding those two pieces to see what happens. And then the last trade was the exit of the IBM that I mentioned got out for 53 cents booked a nice profit there. And so we're out of IBM. So those are all the trade alerts. Let's take a look at some of the other positions. I mentioned 6B. We've got oil. We've got some profit here in oil. And just holding that, if we get a little bit more upside and some more theta decay, we'll book that one. Obviously if price sort of drop and rip lower, we'll need to roll our calls down. We've got some time in here. We've got 28 days to expiration in that spread. ES, we've got a long put vertical that we've just been holding for some of that short delta exposure. In ES, you can see prices right outside of our range. Just looking for some downside to benefit that one. Gold. We've got an iron condor in here dead centered. Got some profit. Not quite enough to take off yet. Trying to battle back to profitability in our gold trade. Natty gas moving up today. Getting back closer to center. So we've got some profit in this since we've made the roll. Just trying to get back to profits in that gas. Bonds. We've got this adjusted strangle here. And so we could use a little bit of more upside, just more time to pass. Theta decay to benefit that. I mentioned wheat. Apple. We've got a long put vertical on that we originally put on for some short delta exposure. You can see since we've rolled this price is pretty close to where we rolled it. Just looking for some more downside to benefit that one. I mentioned DE, DIA. We've got two different short call verticals that we've been holding for that short delta. One's got some profit here. The other one is outside of its range. So we need some more downside to get back in. IWM again put this on for some more short delta. And it's broke out a little bit of its range. We've had this strong market so looking for some downside to get back in. IYR. We've got this iron condor hanging out right here. And so we are continuing to hold this. We're looking at implied volatility at pretty low now. So not looking to add to that at this point. We'll make that decision possibly next week. If we get some downside movement, probably just take it off. But we'll see what happens in that. QQQ, very similar to DIA. We've got two sets of short call verticals. One is this one here, which is right inside of our range. The other is right here, which has got some profit inside of our range. SMH. We've got this adjusted strangle. I was hoping to add to this, but implied volatility has been pretty low. Contracted pretty significantly there. So just holding on to SMH for now. We've got 28 days to expiration. So we've got some time. I mentioned SPX, SPY. This is one that I'm close to taking off. It's over 50% of max profit, but just didn't see it moving around too much. And I want to continue this trade. So I wanted to wait until next week to let these December options get under that 60 days to expiration, which is kind of our wheelhouse. And so I'll add another iron condor out in December. And then close out this one probably early next week if things stay pretty stable. XLK, another short delta position. This is a long put vertical, priced just outside of our range. So looking for some more downside to benefit that. And I mentioned XRT. So those are all the alerts. Those are all of the positions. Everybody have a great weekend. We will talk to you next week.