 Hello everyone, welcome to another International Relations Capsule for the Shankar AIS Academy. I'm sure you're all following the war, Russia's Ukraine war as it is called, or if you want to be more realistic, it is Russia's Ukraine war. The situation is grave, there is no end in sight. Even though the latest news is that the foreign ministers of Russia and Ukraine are meeting in Turkey. The latest news that we have heard and the Turkish Foreign Minister will act as an mediator. Well, anywhere the discussion is welcome, any mediator is welcome, what the world needs is peace and let's hope it will move towards that. But what I wanted to speak to you about today was this whole question of the possibility of a nuclear weapon, use of a nuclear weapon in this context. Normally nobody would even think about it because obviously a nuclear war would mean total devastation. Not only those who use the weapons but also those who are victims of it will all collapse and there will be a disaster. But why I chose to speak about it is because very unfortunate references were made to the nuclear weapon by the Russians. In fact, on the third day of the war, President Putin talked about alerting the nuclear forces of Russia. This seemed important because in the first two days, Russia suffered a lot of setbacks. They had felt that in the first two or three days they will defeat Ukraine and the war would be over. But far from it, even on the 12th day, the war is in trouble. So on the third day, he started wondering whether this was going to go on forever and so he decided to use what is called the N-word which frightens everybody. Of course, the shock was when around the world or President of Russia to speak about nuclear weapons at a time when he is likely to be losing a war, that would be very desperate. So there was alarm around the world and then he clarified the same day that know what he meant was he was alerting the nuclear forces of Russia to defend Russia in the event of a use of nuclear weapon by some other country. But that was some comfort, but still even threatening to use a nuclear weapon or even to talk about a nuclear weapon is considered criminal in the present system against humanity because no act or no position taken by any country would justify the use of nuclear weapons. But as you know, there are different approaches to nuclear weapons in many countries. The five permanent members of the Security Council are all weapon powers, nuclear weapon powers under the NPT and the others are all non-nuclear weapon states. So nuclear weapons states only have the capacity to use nuclear weapons. And other than that, there are some countries which are nuclear in effect, but non-nuclear in name like India, Pakistan, Israel, etc. So who can make use of a nuclear weapon? It's only a permanent member. And for a permanent member to use a nuclear weapon can mean very, very many serious things about the rest of the world. And that is why China, for example, has adopted a position or the theory of non-first use of nuclear weapons. We also has adopted that theory because we have declared that our nuclear capability is only a deterrent and we will never use it on the first instance in the sense that only if somebody else use a nuclear weapon against us and we survive that, then only we will use our nuclear weapons. But this is not true of some other countries. Like Pakistan, for example, maintains that they don't have a principle of non-first use and they keep saying that if there is a threat to the security of Pakistan, they will not hesitate to use their nuclear weapons. And so here the question arises, do they have theater nuclear weapons or small nuclear weapons to impact only one part of the world and not the whole world? And they claim that they have it. And Russia also claims that there are theater nuclear weapons which can be used only for limited areas. But this has not been tried. Nobody knows it will limit the action of the nuclear weapon and therefore it is most dangerous for anybody to even talk about nuclear weapons in a context where there is a war in progress. Of course, all of us know the objectives of President Putin. The immediate objectives as he's spelled out are non-naxification because he believes that the Nazis have occupied or at least has influenced Ukraine, though the president, Mr Zelensky himself is a Jew. And then he talks about demilitarization because no country can be demilitarized. Every country has the right to protect itself. And of course the world did it to Iraq, but Ukraine has not committed any crime of that kind to talk about demilitarization. And also his third objective is to legitimize or regularize these two independent states which he have recognized, Donbass and the next one. So these are the immediate objectives he talks about. And he is nowhere near getting these objectives which he's spelled out as security guarantees for Russia itself. But to get security guarantees to talk about use of nuclear weapons is absolutely unthinkable. But then the larger objective also we know that he said in his speech that his wish is to bring back the glory and glamour of Soviet Union and Russia as the successor state of Soviet Union has the right and has the duty to restore that glory. But there again, nuclear weapon is not the answer. So even though it was only an alert to be ready to defend the country if necessary, the remark by Mr Putin has been misunderstood, resized and condemned all around the world. But since he is meeting unexpected resistance and if he is in a frustrated mood, it is quite possible that a frustrated or a mad leader can press the nuclear button. As you know, the nuclear button is an instrument that is carried around where the head of state or head of government goes. So that in a moment's notice, he is able to launch a nuclear weapon. It's not as simple as that. We all think that he has a button. It is not so. It's a communication mechanism which reaches all the important decision makers within seconds and all of them have to clear it before it is launched. And so it is not easy that somebody in a fit of anger or rage uses the nuclear weapon. That reality we should know and it is true. But we have this fear. I remember when I was in the Kremlin, when Mr. Muradi Desai was having a summit meeting with Mr. Greshnev, who was the president. I was very worried that this man, he was not very clear in his words. He was shifting around. He was reading from the paper sometimes wrongly and so on. So I was wondering what would happen if this man at this age, when he's not so stable and steady, what would he do if he had to press a nuclear button? Then I wrote a little note to the foreign secretary expressing this great worry of mine. What happens if he has to press the button? So he was very unmoved by that. He sent me back a slip saying probably he has a fake button on his table because nobody would trust a man of that age and incompetence to press the nuclear button. So there are so many guarantees. But of course, Mr. Putin is not mad. He is a very determined, he is an unquestioned leader and he is capable of taking these decisions if necessary. But he would not accept any fake button. But his state of mind and determination can lead to a catastrophe. Because he is also a human being and could get into a rage and do something. So that danger is always there. The other danger is the nuclear weapon getting into the hands of the terrorists, the so-called non-actors whom I get hold of a nuclear weapon and threaten to destroy the world. In fact, there is a novel called The Fifth Horseman where this situation is described and eventually it happens to be a fake button that he had, a fake bomb which would not have exploded in any case. So, but to look at Putin's own record of his treatment of nuclear weapons, we should remember that of late, the last four or five years. He has been talking about the big capacity that Russia has acquired in nuclear technology. Because soon after the destruction or the breaking up of the Soviet Union, there was some amount of weakness, but they built it up. And about, I think about three years ago, he demonstrated his nuclear arsenal on a video show, which he showed to a huge audience of Russians and others where he actually showed movies, films, of course science fiction movies, in which Russian long range missiles would hit. He mentioned the names of the cities in the United States. So it's not an unreal scenario. He has the capacity and he has demonstrated the capacity, not of course in real life, but in terms of video and laser, etc. He said that we have this capacity and anybody who is inimical to Russia's interests must know that and we will not hesitate to use this if necessary. So he proved, he explained that it had a long range, it had a lethality and he would not hesitate to use nuclear weapons. Why does one think about nuclear weapons? Because when you feel that your conventional superiority or conventional capacity is inferior to the enemy, that is when the question of nuclear weapons comes up. And that is why the question has come up in Pakistan many times. Several times when there is a serious situation on the border, Pakistan is very loosely talk about a nuclear attack. Because for them in their strategy, the nuclear weapon is a multiplier of forces where you lack in terms of conventional forces and conventional armies or air forces. Then they say that it can be multiplied, the threats when they say that they will use a nuclear weapon, then their capacity multiplies. And anyone who cannot accept a nuclear attack will have to withdraw or will have to compromise. And that is why Russia, if it feels that it is inferior to United States or European Union or even to Ukraine, it is possible that this thought will occur to them. Of course, as you know, these are only the five permanent members. And of course, we have India, Pakistan and Israel who have not signed the NPT. We are not supposed to abide by any of these rules. Even though when we declared ourselves a nuclear weapon state in 1998, the greatest worry that the United States was that India may not be able to control. When you have nuclear weapons, you must have a command and control system. And whether India had the ability to do that, because in the old days, North Americans took a bomb on a plane and dropped it over Hiroshima and Nagasaki. But now it will not be, the delivery will not be by planes, but it will be by missiles. And therefore, you have to have the proper missiles, the capacity to launch it and also to limit the operation of the nuclear weapon. It should not go and fall in a place where we did not intend it. So I remember being invited to the Pentagon. As you know, the Pentagon is the headquarters of the United States Army, where the senior generals gave us the embassy briefing about command and control systems. And we of course had invited some people from Delhi also to attend the briefing and they were laughing at it. They said that the way the Americans are explaining it was, it appeared as though we don't know anything about nuclear weapons. And they also assured us that their systems are no less than the American system. We felt reassured as a result of the briefing that we got more from the Indian side rather from the American side. But the Americans were very anxious to train us or let us know all the, we will not tell us all the secrets. But the precaution and to impress upon us that you need to have a good command and control system without which the weapons can be misused. And that fear is there about Russia also because Russian technology is not always considered the best as you know. Even though we use Russian military equipment coming from Soviet military equipment, first because they are cheaper. Secondly, because they give us technology which we can multiply and we can produce MiG lights and other things, even satellites with Russian technology. But we know that it is not the best and we are now diversifying as soon as the Cold War is over. We have started diversifying and purchasing weapons from United States, Israel, Russia of course continues. About 70 to 80% of all our weapons come from Russia. But Russia's reputation is not that it is foolproof. There are concerns about safety of Russian nuclear reactors. The biggest ever nuclear accident took place in Ukraine part of Russia, Soviet Union. And we know about Chernobyl. Chernobyl is now in Ukraine and it figured in the war because they captured it at one point in the fifth or sixth day. It appeared a very dangerous exercise because they are bombing the reactor or bombing the facility. But first of all, the center of the reactor or the core of the reactor is very safe normally. No explosion, no water, nothing can really disturb it unless it is another nuclear weapon. So there is this thing that the facility, nuclear facilities are very well protected. And even at the time of Fukushima, we found that there wasn't too much of nuclear radiation in the area, even though the water was polluted. As a result even today, some 30 square kilometers around Fukushima are left fallow, same in Chernobyl also. Chernobyl of course, there was radiation level very high and even now several acres around the Chernobyl plant is not in use because of radioactivity. So for a moment we thought that they might attack, but what they did was there are four reactors in Ukraine, in the west of Ukraine. And they were all under attack in the last few days. But Mr. Putin's claim is that this is to make sure that the Ukrainians don't make use of this facility for any kind of nuclear threat. And they cannot because Ukraine is not a nuclear weapon state anymore. They had nuclear weapons, but when the Soviet Union broke out, Russia became the nuclear weapon state and the others were non-nuclear weapons state. And so Ukraine and Belarus had to surrender their nuclear weapons to Russia or to the International Atomic Energy Agency and get a clean sheet from the Atomic Energy Agency. So to suspect that they have any interest uranium or plutonium in these reactors is not right. But anyway, Putin's argument was that to destroy this was to prevent Ukraine using nuclear weapons. But more than that, I think his intention was to make the people of Ukraine suffer darkness because once these nuclear reactors are destabilized, then there'll be no electricity in Ukraine for several months. And that is what he meant to do. And that comes as a relief because he did not intend to bomb them out and create an international crisis that he did not intend to do. But intention is one thing, but doing or being able to do is something else. So the fear is very much there about the capacity to look after it and also the possibility of launching missiles from Russia to Ukraine with nuclear warheads. Even if all this does not happen, that is the other risk that such announcements will force the others, other nuclear weapons states like the United States and France and Germany, China not because China is now friendly with Russia, to take countermeasures because they cannot sit back. So they will also open up their nuclear weapons, clean them up and make them ready so that in the event of an attack, they can react. And so that will also bring the nuclear weapons to the center stage. So these are all very risky propositions and it is best it is avoided so that the whole world does not face a nuclear danger. Of course, many people think that the personality of Putin will be a major factor in this. The Americans are already doing a psychoanalysis of Mr. Putin because they want to know what kind of a man he is. He was out of power for a long time. He was a KGB agent. So all these they are putting into their computer and studying what kind of man they are going to face. And they are not very sure that he is absolutely normal. And as a Russian nationalist also is a factor it is in the blood of these leaders. And also he is known to be ruthless in pursuit of his goals. Otherwise he would not have launched this war and a pointless war at that. And with very little support from anywhere else in the United Nations he got only 5 votes of 293. So still he is going ahead which means that he is quite a formidable person. And if he has a paranoia that the rest of the world is out to destroy him. Now in a moment of desperation it could be quite possible but he might use the nuclear weapon that is the fear. Of course this closest advisor who used to be with me is Ambassador of the UN. He is a very senior stern and firm foreign minister like Mr. Putin himself. And he is just a supporter of Putin in every way. And therefore he does not, he is like his master's voice. So his closest advisor is someone who will not advise him against his own temperament. And so he does not seem to have anybody else. Because there may be many advisors whom he would trust and would he entrust with the state secrets of this kind. Another one is he is not a chummy or friendly with any other world leader. Of course he is friendly with Mr. Modi but I don't think they have come to first name terms as yet. And it would be pretty formal for Americans use first names etc. But Russians and Chinese and so on don't use first names and they don't get very friendly with other leaders. And so there is nobody to give him a former, a sincere and frank advice at any time. And that also is a worry among strategic analysts. Then Ukraine's own status as I just mentioned is a non-nuclear so they will not have any nuclear material with them. And nor can they acquire any without the concern of the international atomic energy agents. The purpose of which is to safeguard the countries against nuclear weapons. So but there is some concern about or expressed by Russia about some fissile material lying around Ukraine. But that I don't think is possible because the atomic energy agency where I worked. I know that they have the capacity to detect and destroy any unauthorized nuclear elements. So I'm not worried about what the brain will do. But it is strange that Belarus made a move in the same direction. And Belarus, as you know, like Ukraine was a member of the United Nations during the Soviet days to just give Soviet Union two more votes. These two republics were declared independent in a sense, but they were not independent. They have separate missions in Moscow. And so the Belarus was also a nuclear weapon states in that sense. But when it was Soviet Union. But now very foolishly the Belarus president who is not known for any wisdom in the past also. Declared that his country is now a nuclear weapon state by doing what he did the referendum. And ask his parliament and the parliament says go ahead and become a nuclear weapon state. And that's a joke because they have no nuclear material and nobody will be able to give it to them. And even if they give, they cannot keep it. Even if they keep it, they cannot use it. All these are completely controlled by the international agency. So that's also not very wise and there is no such danger. But the danger arises only in a desperate situation if Mr Putin reaches that. Suppose he has to surrender to a small country like Ukraine and only then would he even think about nuclear weapons. And present day age and time, nobody will venture to do that. But what I wanted to say to you was that even talking of nuclear weapons use even as a threat is dangerous and illegal. And if he has spoken about it even once in the last 12 days, it's a significant remark. And we ought to be aware of that. As you may know, there is somebody is maintaining something called a doomsday troch. Which is moved, its hands are moved forward and backward depending on the nuclear threat in the world at a particular moment. So already when the war started, the clock was set closer towards the midnight. When it reaches midnight at the 12 o'clock, the clock reaches then an atom bomb is supposed to explode. That is how it is sensitized with all the data and all the technology available. So even when the war started, the hand may have been moved, say a quarter of a centimeter towards 12. But when the statement was made by President Putin and the reactions from the rest of the world, I'm sure it must have moved at least one centimeter closer to destruction. So that's what has happened. The doomsday troch, which is ticking away because of the danger, nuclear danger. We have come a little more close to it than we were before. And this is something that we have to be aware of. And the whole international community should be able to find ways to counter any such nuclear threat for the sake of humanity. Thank you. You know, the latest is that the efforts to bring them back has failed. Because President Putin had promised Prime Minister Modi that a humanitarian corridor will be created through which the students who are left behind in Ukraine will be brought into Russia. But originally, Ukraine agreed to that on the basis that these people will be taken not to Russia, but to the western border, by Poland or something. But the clearance which came from Moscow was to take them to Moscow. And this President Zelensky has said that it's impossible when the soldiers are coming from that part of the world to send students into them will be unsafe. And therefore, the students are in fact boarded the bus as instructed by the Indian Embassy in a place called Sumi. They have gone back into their barracks because there is a danger that this so-called free zone will not be free of danger. So they've gone back into their rescue shelters, not very comfortable. But fortunately, they now have food and water. They did not have that last two, three days. And so they're slightly better, but certainly not as good as they should be. So that is the question about repatriation of our students. It was not neutrality. We voted for ourselves. We did not vote for Russia or the United States, but we voted in our own interests because we are friends of the U.S. We are friends of Russia. We'd like to continue. And therefore we could not have taken a position different from that, whatever may happen in the future. So we cannot be faulted on that. Because when a country decides on a course of action, which is in its best interests, well, they may react differently, but we cannot help it. And so we cannot be sensitive to that. The war will affect everyone. It is a second pandemic. Nobody will be free of any impact. In fact, the oil prices have already gone up. And it is believed that as soon as the election results come out on Thursday and oil prices will go up to 22 rupees per liter. That is the fearful specter that we have in front of us. So that's a very, very, very great impact on our ordinary people. But Western countries are divided because NATO is with Ukraine, but there are other countries who are with Russia. And we have done what we could do in the sense by abstaining. We did not side with either Russia or Ukraine. And therefore there should be no prejudices against us. But the problems of economic problems, the recession, if that happens, it will affect all of us, whether it is west or east. So a war cannot be without universal impact. And we must all be expecting it because the pandemic was most unexpected, but this was not unexpected. Maybe somebody should have done something before it erupted. But let's hope it will not be so bad. All right. Thank you very much.