 The following is a presentation of TFNN the morning markets kickoff With your host Tommy O'Brien Good morning everybody, I'm Tommy O'Brien coming to you live from TFNN Wednesday morning just after 9 a.m. Eastern time We got about 25 minutes to go until the start of trading and you got markets in positive territory to kick things off one stock Not in positive territory this morning Netflix to put it lightly We'll get into that in a moment, but boy talk about a miss man and they are getting punished this morning You get the S&P's though up 17 points right now You're trading up 4 tens percent at forty four seventy seven NASDAQ 100 up fifty seven points fourteen thousand two seventy four That's four tens percent as well. You get the Dow nearing thirty five thousand not that long ago a week ago We're at thirty four thousand up a hundred thirty four points in the Dow thirty four thousand nine seventy five Russell up fifteen points as well Bitcoin back about forty two thousand forty two thousand fifty five crude rockin crude's up a dollar twenty at one oh three twenty five We talked to our man Teddy keg stat today at forty past the hour. Love talking some crude oil with Teddy We'll talk some forex as well. Stay tuned for that one at forty past the hour We jumped to gold pulling back from the highs we had Monday $2,003 this morning make it down to nineteen forty one golds down nine dollars this morning nineteen forty nine seventy silver off twenty two pennies as well 2516 and we jumped to notes and bonds a slight reprieve of the slightest slightest reprieve folks You're talking about a ten-year yield right now pretty remarkable that I can talk about a reprieve in the ten year And we're sitting at two point nine percent not too much a reprieve competing considering where we are But nonetheless you do get a little bit of higher price in terms of yesterday's action You back it up to Where we were at about 9 p.m. Eastern time last night you're at one 1819 and just like that you traded up almost a full point from 9 a.m. Until about 7 30 We've given up some of that right now You're technically positive by three ticks on the session, but you're sitting at 2.9 percent man on the 10 year Seems like 3% might be coming at us. I don't know if we got 3% last night We probably were pretty close at 1 18 19 man you put this thing on a daily I talk about it all the time man We were in quite a trend line to lower prices and higher yield folks this market has broken out in dramatic fashion We're at 2.9 percent right now I do imagine you'll get a bounce at some point Maybe you bake it back within that channel channel line, but you're still talking about lower prices and higher yields Even within that channel line 1906 we make it to a low 118 19 lowest prices highest yield we've seen about four years remarkable Let's jump over to the Vicks this morning Vicks pairing some of the gains were back to about 20 at 2020 on the volatility index Alright, let's get into it man. Whoo. You talk about an earnings miss How's that chart look for you right 700 to 350 that looks like a rough one Well, guess what folks that one does not have the overnight session in we're gonna open at 250 so much for 350 Just shave another hundred dollars off the price of Netflix and there you go We're talking about still trading lower right now Use me all the streaming companies getting punished here. Not sure if that's fair We're gonna find out in the long term, but this morning you are you're talking about Roku getting punished in a big way Disney I've been able they're getting punished in a big way 360 last night to 249 and as I said folks It just keeps going and I can't blame the market pretty startling report out there from Netflix. You spike initially to 270 You settle at about 260. We're now trading at 240 98 Folks you are down an even 100 dollars on the price of Netflix now if you jump over remember You had about a $35 move priced into the earnings $100 just crushes it man They lose subscribers for the first time now jumping down to the fundamentals. Okay You're talking about a company was valued at $150 billion yesterday today. They are valued at a hundred and eleven billion dollars Remarkable and that is off of about almost 275. I think was at their high. They were valued at $700 was the high so you almost multiplied times three. Yeah, you're talking about maybe 300 billion dollars was their market cap at the highs You're at 111 right now And you are gonna see a drastic cut in your market cap when you miss on the estimates like they have now I'm gonna back this up on a daily. Okay, things really falling out of bed the last earnings season But boy, you're gonna I mean you're talking about trading from 500 bucks to 250. That's down from 700 now One of the big aspects that drove them lower when they announced their earnings in January for the final quarter of 2021 was their forecast, okay? They had originally forecasted for the quarter that they just came in with at about 8.5 million subscriber ads And they said hold on we were way ahead of ourselves. We're gonna trim that back harshly We're gonna say we're only gonna add 2.5 million subscribers for the quarter that they just announced on yesterday after the close There was a lot of talk on the street that they had Underpromised that they had said, you know what we're gonna take a beating no matter what Let's go low to make sure that we under promise and we over deliver, right? Let's really put a number out there that we think we can hit because the last thing we want to do is go from 8.5 to 2.5 and we miss the 2.5 right so the street said, you know what maybe they're being a little cautious Maybe they're gonna come in at three to four. I saw one accolade out there one statistic saying just from pure streaming volume One analyst or or somewhere out there. They were talking about maybe the streaming numbers alone We're pointing to the fact they might have added four million. Well, what happened folks? They lost 200,000 subscribers first time they've lost subscribers since 2011 Losing subscribers that is not growth. Okay They have some serious free cash flow here, okay now it In your mind because I'm doing these gymnastics in my own mind, all right I'm saying, okay, you now have a company valued at 111 billion dollars They're probably gonna be around for some foreseeable period of time as in they are the leader in streaming right now I got kids in the house folks. All right, they're their their brains are attuned to that Netflix Sound when it comes on right It's gonna be around but is it going to be the leader Forever. Well, we'll see now that the question about the free cash Well, when you're talking about a company now valued at 110 billion dollars. Can it get cut in half again? Can it be valued at 55 billion dollars? Anything's possible folks great conversation in the Tigers den yesterday if you haven't checked out the den yet I encourage you to check it out They were saying just because it's gone so low don't think it can't go any lower man and Couple of tigers in there. Tigris is having a good laugh saying I've been bitten by that one before I think we all have folks when you see a stock go from 700 350 The theoretical hypothetical trade I laid out yesterday was just saying because people are thinking about it If you wanted to did not end up taking this trade or sending out to subscribers Partly because of some of the great discussions going on in the tiger stand out there If you think you can't go any lower, you're wrong because the price yesterday was 350 And you had risk on both sides of that trade and we now see of course You go down to 250 don't make the same mistake again Don't say to yourself that there's not risk to the downside when you're trading at 250 And here's the fundamental part of that. Okay, the fundamental part of that is they have free cash flow right now And we're gonna get into some of the numbers of this more so But if they cannot compete, okay I saw a great Bloomberg analysts talking about this last night and it was a great point if they can't compete with Scripted shows which that's the what they're the king of right now, right? They're not the king of live sports They're the king of scripted shows. Okay, and they've delivered in pretty dramatic fashion with some serious hits of scripted shows Maybe that's not gonna live up to what they need anymore And maybe they're gonna have to start going out there and paying for premium content to the likes of live sports Maybe and if you have another upheaval of spending, maybe that free cash flow goes bye-bye I mean when are they gonna be able to turn the spicking on for profits, right? Let alone. We haven't discussed. They're gonna start selling ads. That's a big one as well We'll be talking to our man Kevin Hicks when we get back stay tuned folks Everything in the universe is governed by the Fibonacci sequence This mathematical principle is responsible for everything from the most aesthetically pleasing artwork to patterns in the stock market To stay on top of stock patterns You can take advantage of sign up for the Fibonacci 24 7 newsletter at tfnn.com When you subscribe you'll get a weekly report from veteran day trader Larry Pezzavento on stocks You need to pay attention to and you can trust Larry's analysis after all He's got 45 years experience as a day trader Larry will also provide daily charts videos and data on the key markets that he's tracking Expect notifications from Larry on market movement You need to act on at any time first-time subscribers also get a 30-day money back guarantee If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up Subscribe to the Fibonacci 24 7 newsletter today tfnn.com educating investors What's separating you from the most successful men and women on Wall Street, that's right Information having all the information gives us the perspective we need to place the right trades at the right time The TAS profile scanner is the premier market profile base scanner Powered by its acclaimed TAS proprietary algorithms this feature rich scanner instantly filters over 2,500 plus global financial markets such as stocks ETFs commodities futures and forex This powerful suite of tools Leverages instant trade filtering and strategy formulation to show you emerging trades Before they happen for a limited time You can save $100 off your first month by using the promo code upgrade and you still get a 30-day money back guarantee So you have nothing to risk Level the playing field with the TAS profile scanner which you can find under the services tab at tfnn.com Sign up today Sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument You have to practice sure, but you also need excellent instruction from experts at tfnn You'll get advice and guidance from the authority and technical market analysis, and it's not just dry tedious text either tfnn airs live financial content streamed live on tfnn.com and Tfnn's YouTube channel with tiger TV live every market day from 8 30 a.m. To 4 p.m. Eastern for free each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the World from the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help You make the right moves with your money watch online at tfnn.com or on tfnn's YouTube channel and become the Investor you were born to be tfnn educating investors Folks we get the S&P's up 15 right now Nasdaq positive by 38 you get the Dow up 122 We got Netflix shares right now trading down an even $100 at $248 and 70 cents we closed last night at $348 and 60 cents remarkable pullback for Netflix shares Losing 200,000 subscribers for the first time. They're gonna have a new subscription service at a cheaper price That's gonna be ad supported in the next year or two That may be the scariest thing of all shifting the entire business plan read Hastings for a while there saying no no no We're gonna be charging subscriptions. We're not gonna be selling ads and guess what that all changes when they can't grow anymore All right, let's jump over to our man Kevin Hicks every trading day folks 12 noon Eastern time on the TD Ameritrade Network right here on Tiger TV your host Kevin Hicks Tom white they break down the Days market action they walk you through hypothetical trade setups Kevin Hicks. Where do we start man? Good morning? Good morning, Tommy O'Brien. You know, how do you transition from a growth stock to a value stock? And I guess the print the answer to that is you go from seven hundred dollars to two hundred and forty eight dollars I guess that's remarkable Kevin But this is gonna be you know There's not a lot of people that really called for this. It looks like Netflix is gonna open up down about a hundred dollars here It's a little bit of a surprise in terms of data But the lesson to be learned from this is look at the price action in the four major industries today one stock does not make a market and Netflix's issues and they're not earning they earned plenty of money but they're just not growing like they were and They're transitioning to a different company with competition and frankly they need more hits Right We don't want you when Netflix started Tommy. They were playing Friends in Seinfeld and old shows like that. They were all hit now when you start coming out with new content it's more of a batting average and if you're batting average dips and People start to go back outside in the spring and post COVID and your numbers dip You you've got never an answer and password sharing is gonna come up. I think Advertising will come up eventually. Maybe not in the short term But they're going through a pretty critical time in their company's history Tommy Yeah, Reed Hastings. I believe on the call He had talked about that they are looking into an ad supported service at a cheaper price in the next year or two Very general statements out there. So nothing concrete But that one caught my ear because for a while he has been pretty adamant on the fact that no no no We have a service. We charge a subscription for we're not getting into ads You could see a little fear there as they change things up completely like you said from 348 to 248 $100 and you make a great point man. They're they're they're making some cash right now For sure. I heard one analyst out there last night on Bloomberg Kevin and they made a great point I forget who it was. I should get the name because I talked about already this morning They are the king of scripted shows right now. That's what they do You know, they do scripted shows and they've had a ton of big hits man But what happens Kevin if they have to start spending again, right? What if spending on scripted shows isn't living up to it? What if they find the need to get into other areas particularly? What if they start saying hey, you know what live sports is the king right now? What if we want to go compete for live sports, man? You're talking about competing with who? Bezos in Amazon in Apple Just a lot up in the air man, but who remarkable pullback in the Tiger's Den Kevin. They were saying yesterday Don't think because it's gone so far that it can't go any low at lower We've been bitten by that before and Netflix a great example folks when you think a stocks can cut in half Don't think it can't go lower because there is risk on both sides of that trade if it straightened at 348 yesterday Straighten in 348 folks forget about 700. That was when they were talking about adding Millions and millions and millions of subscribers this quarter Kevin last quarter and now they're looking for the next quarter losing two million So it's a big shift man. You almost can't overstate how big of a shift is they haven't lost subscribers since 2011 man remarkable and the other streamers, of course paying the price That's an interesting conversation in terms of you know, does Disney deserve to be trading down $5 today on Netflix? Maybe man. We'll see we'll find out Roku Probably gonna have a hit because obviously if people aren't signing up for Netflix They have a less need for streaming an entirety Roku down from 490 now sitting at 108 But as you say I was a little bit Interested not even worried interested Kevin because futures were down last night I said is this gonna be kind of a market sentiment where people just to kind of take a huge miss and say is this more than even Streaming right is this something that people are holding their checkbooks doesn't seem to be the case so far this morning with the S&P's up 15 points Some of the other stocks out there IBM actually trading higher Kevin would trade at 132 right now from 129 You guys talked about Procter and Gamble yesterday They're almost flat right now trading up about a dollar after some volatility spike to 163. You're at 160 this morning Pretty resilient market right now with quite a miss for one of those marquee numbers last night We got the 10-year yield Kevin still sitting at about 2.9 percent as this market I mean you think about a cab it was at 4,800 at all-time highs We're sitting almost at 4,500 right now and yields just through the roof What's your general take on how resilient this market's been and I say only 300 points off the highs But I think if you told people Kevin I'm going back to super general here If you told people that the yields were gonna do what they would have done in the first You know three and a half months of the year I think that the market at 4,500 might be okay with a lot of investors What's your take on just the general market here with yields like almost as high as I could imagine them by April 20th Yeah, I mean some of the discussion the last couple days have been yield and the US dollar right well Both of those are relatively quiet today and the question that I just brought up with Oliver Renwick was Well, is it is it a chicken and egg right what are the markets up because the dollar and the yields are quieter this morning or are the Is the dollar down and yields quiet because stocks seem to be firming here and finding some bids down in some of these So it's kind of interesting how that relationship plays out But you know if your people are watching the markets today You know the the lower US dollar is good for stocks the the quieter Ten-year yield is probably good for stocks this market will show that a healthy US economy can handle higher interest rates What it has trouble with is spiking interest rates in the yields, which is what we've gotten lately So if the 10-year yield which you know, let's face it Tommy has discounted a lot of rate hikes already in it at 2.9% to 288 as we said you're pre-opened if it starts to quiet down and stay in a range Stocks could look very attractive again at some of these valuations. I mean some of the moves Yeah, and I know you know but I'm looking at the S&P futures on the thinkorswim platform just on a 15-minute basis Sunday night folks we were trading at 43 55 we're 125 points above that price level right now 120 actually as I look at it 44 75 just huge moves man So we transition from Netflix Kevin. We got some big names coming out What are you guys talking about today on fast market coming up at noon? In the first segment we'll look at lamb research They have earnings coming up and then like fully old do a presentation on the airlines United Airlines and American coming out with earnings and then we were the last one's a little bit influx We may we looked at Tesla on Monday. We may look at it again. We may look at auto nation It's the the last segment of the show is currently in discussion as how we want to handle it But uh lamb research and the airlines to start the show Perfect. We'll keep them guessing you got to tune in folks for the third segment lamb research this morning You're catching a bid with the market. You're up to 496 from 479 and yeah, the airlines I heard you guys talking about yesterday interesting action with the mask mandate going down All of a sudden airlines catch a pop at that travel sector man That's an interesting one nonetheless as we get a rebound and travel Delta. They talk the biggest cash sales They had a month of March Kevin. We appreciate the time man. We'll be watching it 12 today. Have a great one man Thanks for having me on Tommy. Always pleasure. Take care. 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We got markets open You got the S&P up 17 points right now trading at 44 76 and as I was talking to Kevin Hinks You put this thing back on a five-year weekly folks, okay five-year weekly you could almost just let's go back a three-year weekly Okay, get the full COVID acceleration to 21 74 We get a one-way trip from 21 74 to 4800 folks to start off this year. Yes You do pull back to about 4,000. What's the low technically end of February of 4101 the low 4129 in the middle of March We're trading right now at 44 77. I'm telling you folks you look at this chart on a longer-term basis We barely got a pullback right now. Okay, you started 2020 off at 3200 we're trading 1,250 points above that price level you're trading 40% Above where we started 2020 off as we came into a pandemic the likes that many of us had never seen before Keep that in mind when you think about what's possible folks in terms of pullbacks doesn't mean it's gonna happen But man, you see the surprises and Netflix first time since 2011 losing subscribers They are gonna try and start an ad-supported service. That one's the scariest of all Because that means Reed Hastings is questioning the business plan that they've stuck with since inception of streaming That's a scary one folks when you think about where they go They were at 8.5 million subscribers for the current quarter then they went down to 2.5 million subscriber ads It comes in at a decrease of 200,000 How hard do you think they were trying to make sure that they didn't come in at a decrease, right? You know that executives were watching that number man saying can we can we put some money into? Advertising to boost it, you know, we're only talking about 200,000 subscribers on A company like that. What can we do to get that number in the positive? They couldn't do it and now they're gonna come in at a loss of 2.5 million the next quarter So maybe maybe they really were trying maybe if they weren't spending the extra money to try and push that number to Positive they maybe they would have come in at a minus million or something like that Maybe that's why the next quarter is gonna be down 2.5 because what they've been doing is not working They're gonna start cracking down on people sharing passwords That's not necessarily gonna transition to new subscribers folks if you're sharing passwords with family members It's not necessary necessarily gonna transition to you take that password You know that one family member that was maybe willing to use your subscription They might not be willing to pay themselves folks now Netflix is trying to say oh you can add the family member at a discounted rate all this stuff That gets pretty complicated folks read Hastings understood the brilliance of their business plan when it was working No, we are signing people up for subscriptions. We're not selling advertising. That is old media. Well guess what now They're selling advertising everybody's selling advertising folks. All right peacock sells advertising. That's gonna be a whole different plan People do not watch Netflix to watch ads. They don't do it They've been drilled into their head that that is one of the benefits of watching Netflix, right? You never have to worry about that ad popping up like you do Google YouTube the likes Even Disney had come out I think it was the last quarter of the quarter before they had already realized that there was enough opportunity there to Boost the average revenue per user by starting a subscription plan that was going to be ad Supported so they might have seen the writing on the wall as well Nonetheless, let's jump over to Disney and some of the other streamers real quick So you got Disney down 4.2 percent today on that number. Well, I'll say about Disney folks You're talking about a company now valued at about 230 billion dollars. Yes 230 billion almost on the dot right now Prior to COVID. All right, let's back Disney out on the five-year weekly prior to COVID Okay Yes, so we're talking about the year 2019 now some of these volatile moves on Disney in 2019 had to do with the launch of Disney Plus I believe the first time this thing catches a bid you go from about 115 to 130 that was when they first announced the pricing structure for Disney I'm gonna have to get all these dates exactly. All right, I'll do it again. I've done it on my program before But it's important to understand what this sock was priced at pre Disney Plus because there is a substantial value in this company above the streaming folks when you're talking about a company Disney's value to 230 billion you now have Netflix valued at a hundred and eleven billion I think at one point Netflix was above Disney, which made no sense whatsoever Disney in 2019, I believe they had ten different movies that all gross one billion dollars at the box office One of the reasons why I love Disney so much versus Netflix over the last few years Is because Netflix does not have Any type of business that has box office gross let alone the word Merchandising that comes on top of it folks. I live near Disney my goodness the amount of Straight-up merchandising that exists from Disney itself. I think we all get the point You're back to 126 you're back to the 618 almost exactly from the full covert running had from 79 to 203 And listen if this market takes a beating folks everything's gonna take a beating Okay, but if you're looking at getting in Disney you've now filled the gap that you had back there from a November of 2020 You're back to 126. You're back to the 618. You've had a little bit of support here You're basically back to basic levels that before we even knew the pricing structure of Disney Plus let alone when this thing goes public Excuse me when goes live Something to consider They're paying a price for Disney today. They're paying a price for Netflix. Excuse me and you're back to 126 All right in the long run folks I tell you we were just in Orlando for my birthday went to the JW Marriott in Orlando Outstanding hotel that was March 20th about a month ago exactly a month ago today's April 20th happy 420 to Elon Musk and everybody up there March 20th. I was out there JW Marriott. We were thinking about going to Disney Well shame on us for not figuring out that guess what that was around spring break Disney Disney was sold out You couldn't even go they didn't have any extra tickets. I didn't even know that happened Well, yeah, it happened folks It was spring break. It's not always like that I'll check it the commercial break coming up if they're full right now But you couldn't even get into Magic Kingdom if you wanted there was no premium pricing. There was nothing straight out sold out All right, we've seen the airlines come back Disney's gonna come back folks. I just saw I think a couple days ago for the first time hugs are back at Disney For a couple years hugs were not there. They didn't want everybody hugging with the pandemic hugs are back The kids can go hug Mickey Mouse if they want when they get to meet him all that stuff It's coming back folks. Disney's gonna benefit greatly let alone in the movie theaters. They're gonna benefit I encourage you to keep that one on your radar They are gonna go back up at some point and if I'm looking at Disney versus Netflix folks Netflix is a one-trick pony for the longest time and I have a small portion of Netflix shares in my Retirement folks. Okay, I understand. I don't have it 700. Thank goodness Excuse me So I understand the attractiveness of Netflix and at 110 billion people can probably make that similar argument But as I laid out Netflix might have to up the ante on what they're spending they might have to say we need more than scripted programming to compete They might start burning through cash yet again Where does the end exist for Netflix where they stop spending money and are actually able to start just printing profit That's a tough one when you're always gonna be cute competing with some of the biggest companies in the world No matter what happens to Disney, you're always gonna be competing with Amazon and Apple That is a tough one folks because they can spend money on programming. That's basically No impact is one way to say it on their fundamentals, I mean Apple spending money. Yeah, they spend 20 billion dollars That's pretty substantial. Okay, but 20 billion dollars of Apple's market cap. What are we sitting at right now? Just shy under three trillion probably. Yeah Apple is sitting on a market cap of 2.75 trillion dollars Okay, to put things in context Apple has 16.3 billion shares outstanding So if they spend 16.3 billion dollars on content, that's akin to that stock price moving $1 Wow, and a Netflix is only worth 111 billion dollars if they spend 16 billion dollars on content that's 15% of their entire market cap You get the point. Okay. It's a tough one. We'll go over it a little bit more But when we come back folks, we're gonna be talking some forex We'll be talking a little bit of crude as well with our man Teddy keg stat from forex dash trading dash unlock dot com Are you in the market for buying or selling real estate in the Bay Area? 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That's tfnn.com and hit watch Tiger TV Come back folks. We got the market right now jumping over the S&P We get S&P futures up 13 points right now trading at 44 73. We get the market's rocket and Let's jump over to our man Teddy cakes that from Forex dash trading dash unlock.com We talked to Teddy every Wednesday at 40 past the hour. We've been talking some Forex. We've been talking some crude oil We've been talking some Japanese yen and I got a chart of that yen up here to kick things off Teddy. Good morning Good morning, Tommy. I think the yen is exactly where we should start But I listen it's you've made some outstanding calls lately man. The yen is one of them Let's do it man. I got a chart up and it's almost a one-way trip outside of that one reversal We got With the central bank over there But yes, we let's start it off. I got it up here in a daily basis Teddy What are you looking out of this yet now that we hit 129 39 this morning, man? Well, you hit the key when you just said central bank. So Yesterday and this is is breaking news across many news different sources The Japanese times and the financial times were the ones that really first started it was that there's a divergence in What's going on with the Japanese? Financial system so the Bank of Japan came out yesterday and said that they are going to buy unlimited Bonds to keep the rate at a quarter percent in Japan Okay, so that totally goes against what we said member two weeks ago when we said that they're gonna defend their currency Well, you don't you don't defend your currency by buying your bond market You do the opposite you sell or sell your bond market Okay, so now the finance minutes minister for Japan is totally in the opposite thought like now They've obviously been on a low interest rate curve for a long time. They've been in there the longest Okay, however when it comes to defending your currency, which is something that they think they definitely need to do You don't buy bonds. You don't try and produce rates, you know You'd write you gotta go on the opposite, especially when the whole rest of the world is increasing rates I mean no one's talking about cutting rates let alone supporting their bond market every every central bank is cutting back on their purchases You know so so that's a very key thing that happened yesterday because remember we had the 130 price target I sure do man. We were coming. We almost hit it yesterday, okay? And then this news came out now today if you look at the end we spiked a little bit higher Okay, and now it's what I see right now is a little bit of a profit-taking mode because sure you have the euro is up The pound is up the Aussie's up So if all these other baskets occur the major currencies are up The dollar is under pressure and you got to remember the bond market did make a lower move low today But that now they're a little bit higher on the day, you know, so it's just a little profit-taking move You know as far as that that momentum is concerned at least that's the way I'm viewing it right now Now as far as a price target that line in the sand now is completely I have to say it's off the table because there's no way that you're gonna be able to defend your currency and also Hold just trying to hold up your bond market at the same time It's just it's it's it's a tug of war that you can't go anywhere with So that's where I think the yen is still gonna be a bull And if the one of the reasons I really truly believe that as member two weeks ago when they first talked about defending their currency That was the first correction they'd had in a while and it's the only one they've had in the last month Okay, and that was a that was a three-day slide and it came back pretty fast because remember when we talked two weeks ago I said hey I'm like, you know, I thought that they were they were taking a little bit too much profit taking off of that high And that's when I looked into it and saw how the central bank made that comment about defending their currency So we had a three-day slide there because of that now we have this divergence between the head of the finance Ministry and also the Bank of Japan going in two different directions on what they want to do So that means that that would happen two weeks ago. You're not gonna get that kind of correction So I think the pullback you have today is a short-term little profit-taking break But with oil up and especially if the interest rates start to hit the lows again, which I do believe they will You know, then I think you're gonna see our 130 price target Now I would say that you might see the US dollar again at 140 Especially if you see the Treasury bonds get down to like 125, you know something like that And could you talk a little bit about Teddy because I was a little bit surprised So two weeks ago you let us know the fundamental reason for that pullback Which was them talking about that they're gonna kind of set that upper limit that they wanted, right? And was it 130 or 130 110? What was it? 130 was the number. Yes, 130 was the number. They explicitly said 130 Okay, so you let us know that some great information that explains some of the pullback I got it up here. We see it's it's almost the only three red bars on this chart man going back to March 7th I think we actually have two other red bars prior to the one today Then you come on last week and you're a bull Which I was surprised with considering that you would think right? You would think that your your your profits are capped, right? You're in a trade potentially where you're bullish at 124 125 wherever we are and The central bank over there is saying you're capped at 130 Can you walk us through a little bit because I mean great call when we are right now and I know you did it last week But for some of the listeners that might not have caught it What was the transition that allowed you to maybe turn into a bull even with the central bank talking about trying to keep it Below 130 and you'd be buying it at 125 Can you talk a little bit about that because from where we are right now is outstanding call and even the fundamental aspect has changed Thank you, but I thought that was so cool, especially from what happened over the last, you know seven days Well, I think one of the biggest things that helped me become a bull against the end again Was because at the same token while the dollar was very strong against the euro the pound and the Aussie they were slowing So the euro was the one that was under the most pressure, but the Aussie now is in actually it's not just in a correction It's in a bullish trend now, you know every break has been a it's been a higher move low And we started to bounce with those two markets last week, you know on certain points That's where I could see that I would look at the pound yen and the and the Aussie yen and I started I've got long I've been long those now for two weeks as well You know because those trends are so solid that the yen is not just a bearer when it comes to the US dollar It's a bear with every other currency out there So that means that as long as the dollar is still strong against the Aussie and a strong against the pound and a strong against the euro And especially because the euro right now is off its lows So any upside move it has now is just a correction the dollar is very strong So as long as the dollar is strong against those currencies and those currencies are strong against the yen You got to be a bull. How is the how is the how is the yen going to become a bear against the US dollar? Especially now because like I said with I remember how I was adamant about how when it hits 130 It's gonna be like a nuclear bomb. They're gonna hit that to pull that trigger right away But now with the Bank of Japan going revert. They just reversed it completely reversed their stance last yesterday You know, it's great information, man. I key. I appreciate you sharing it with all our listeners out there We had a question Teddy earlier Anticipating you were coming on the program from one of our guys in the in the Den Dan talking about the Canadian dollar Can we talk a little bit about the Canadian dollar because that's got some movement going on today as well? Yeah, that is I tell you what that's become a choppy mess over the last two weeks In fact, I was streaming but I just got back from vacation last night I did a video and I talked about the US dollar Canada where I was like this one is totally a side scratcher You know like because Geopolitically, it's it's it's a mess between especially the US and Canada And that's I even on a financial aspect too when it comes to our economy and a whole bunch of just it's just a complete zoo You know now another thing that is weird as the commodity issue is because you would think that with especially oil being strong And some other commodities being strong that the Canadian dollar beats getting strength But I think that because of the slope of the way their economy is going and there's there's a big issue now As far as their debt level for their government and stuff like that that you never really heard this before COVID-19 messed up the Canadian economy in many many ways, and I think it's gonna be a bear US dollar Canada is gonna be a long-term bear right now Yeah, we're gonna have to start extending this to two segments if we get this type of action going on in the Forex market Teddy listen Thank you so much for the conversation the education as always man, and we'll talk to you next Wednesday Teddy Thank you. Take care. Thank you. Take care folk We'll be right back for the final part of the program folks They're sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument You have to practice sure but you also need excellent instruction from experts at TFNN You'll get advice and guidance from the authority and technical market analysis, and it's not just dry tedious text either TFNN airs live financial content streamed live on TFNN.com and TFNN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV Live every market day from 8 30 a.m.. To 4 p.m.. 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Look at that sell off We just got in the NASDAQ 100 man you pop higher at 8 7 30 in the morning to 14,000 We'll call 14,300 just like that. You drop 200 points 14,102. We jump over to Netflix shares 34.1% and I think they're agreeing with me in the beginning of the program folks You better wake up man. They are changing their entire business model at Netflix. That is not strength folks All right, they're losing subscribers. They are completely changing that now they're gonna start selling advertising for lower priced Subscription plans that in itself should be alarm bells across the board now I've been at Disney Bowl for a while folks. They've been talking about this morning You don't get the same type of sell-off on Disney only open you're down $7 Disney is not the same as Netflix's one-trick pony. Okay, and man It was a hell of a trick when they had it going on. Okay But Netflix doesn't have a movie theater business folks This could be a huge breakout summer from movie theaters I think I saw the trailer for Thor out there recently a Marvel film You got Disney parks Netflix has nothing like that and then you have the Disney plus streaming service Which is obviously Paramount no pun intended on Paramount Paramount to the future of the company But they have a lot more going on folks Disney's value to 230 billion dollars at this market cap right now You're right at the 618 or where you've been I would look at that into that the only disclaimer is you know market sells off everything's gonna sell off folks, but that's all you do and You know I keep going back to it because Netflix does not have what Disney has folks That's the reason why I'm not just a big person on streaming. I'm a big person on Disney man Disney parks sold out There's only one Mickey Mouse folks. All right, there's only one Star Wars. There's only one Marvel They own them all they get to merchandise them all they get to put them all into movie theaters And they get the parks America folks if they are gung-ho to get back out to travel to visit Disney to go to some movie theaters Disney's gonna be in a position to benefit and I imagine that's coming around the corner market though We might be in a dice area. That's the only thing a little bit worrisome But at 125 76 folks not the same Disney versus Netflix down 4.6 today. We'll see could be a discount Not the action you want but keep it on your radar folks gonna be an interesting day in the markets S&Ps positive by one stay tuned folks. We got our man Basil Chapman up next Larry fast markets Steve Rhodes