 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The morning market kickoff with your host Tommy O'Brien. Good morning everybody I'm Tommy O'Brien coming to you live from TFNN 8 30 AM Wednesday morning thanks everyone for joining us 60 minutes to go until the opening bell in surprise surprise folks we got markets all of them right now in the green S&P is positive by nine points trading at 3215 the Nasdaq positive by 76 points I got to get used to this one trading at 10,026 Dow futures up 44 points at 27,309 and we have the Russell up a point as well trading at 1509 gold contract extending some of the gains we had yesterday at 1729 silver up 30 cents at 1808 and the oil contract negative 57 cents at 3838 we got oil numbers at 1030 AM this morning we're gonna get CPI right now at 830 AM coming at you and we're also it's fed day we're gonna get your own Powell this afternoon quite an extension for the markets S&Ps of course clawing back all of the losses for the calendar year turning positive for 2020 on Monday sustaining some of that action on Tuesday as in slightly in the red as the Nasdaq hit 10,000 for the first time yesterday this morning we were below 3200 but 100 I was up at about 530 maybe six in the morning this morning I said ah maybe that was it right maybe that was it maybe you wait for the S&P to get to positive territory for the year maybe you wait for the Nasdaq to get to 10,000 and then maybe you see a little bit of a pullback a healthy pullback you could call it for some context on the S&Ps I mean this run or now you can see it there above the 786 completely right but if you just look at right this run from May 14th all the indices an incredible run up since that date a healthy pullback to the downside folks could easily see us right back to around 3052 that's a 3A2 that would be a healthy pullback within an uptrend you can't go up forever and we just went up almost 500 S&P points from May 14th you put it on the Dow I've talked about it a lot but man oh man huge numbers you put it on the Dow in terms of where we are in the full we're right now above a 786 of the full retracement of the move down but again you just look at things from May 14th the Dow traded from 22,700 did we make it a full almost a full 5,000 points within a hundred points of 5,000 Dow points from May 14th so you want to see what a healthy pullback looks like when you just went almost 5,000 points a healthy pullback pulls us down to 25000 756 you're talking about 1,500 Dow points easy you could see in a healthy pullback a natural pullback in the market we'll see what happens but you know what you know what I have on my radar this morning with the Nasdaq rockin we all heard the headlines probably maybe Apple Microsoft huge days yesterday how about Tesla having a huge day and how about Tesla poised to open at record all-time highs look at that acceleration starting at about 645 a.m. this morning you have Tesla you have the man himself Elon Musk talking about it may be time to start producing that semi truck they have 998 52 we'll see if we hit a thousand today on Tesla jumping around to some of the stocks that really had action yesterday Facebook I mean check out that acceleration right up almost $10 yesterday from the 230 range closing it out at the 240 range we're going to open higher today as well you saw Apple shares really accelerating higher from the 330 range pre-market yesterday to 345 we're up at about 3403 Amazon all-time highs as well we trade from 2520 in the pre-market up basically $100 to 2620 sold off a little bit at the end of the day but guess what we close it out at 2600 we're gonna open $35 higher at 2635 some of the other tech stocks out there Microsoft had not fared as well jump over which was interesting right and we talked to our man Kevin Hicks to start off the 10 o'clock program Tuesdays Wednesdays and Thursdays of course you can listen to Kevin the whole team at the TD Meritrade network at 11 o'clock if you haven't checked it out folks options defined risk great program and just talking about that some of the fang stocks were acting almost as risk off trades right you had risk off you had gold trading higher you had notes and bonds trading dramatically higher yesterday and you had Apple and Amazon and Facebook dramatically higher yesterday with those as the market the major indices were actually in negative territory yesterday Microsoft was up but you see from about 188 to maybe 190 ish 191 28 this morning Google shares not quite the same pop right there's Google there's your action yesterday basically up $10 from 1445 to 1455 we're gonna open positive territory again this morning Netflix shares about 437 and as we mentioned it CPI was coming out right at 830 as we came on the air so there's your headline there US CPI fell 0.1% in May versus a flat reading expected so pretty close to in line the market's no real huge reaction a little bit of a pop you could say now that's on a 15 minute drilling this down to a five minute let's take those trend lines off even so you see the pop really taking place at about 8 a.m. we trade a bit higher we got those numbers at 830 pretty muted response in the S&P's holding at about that 32 15 level you see the fall off last night at about 430 in the morning you trade down from 30 to 20 we'll call it down to almost 31 90s you talking about almost 30 S&P points but check out that V shaped recovery even overnight on a five minute bar we'll see if we challenge those highs gonna have to get used to that NASDAQ at 10,000 10,031 what's interesting here is I imagine they're gonna take the decimals probably off of this now that it's a five digit number the Dow on the thinkorswim platform I was just looking at today so man that number looks big on the NASDAQ they still got decimals I think they're gonna take that off they don't put the decimals on the dial but quite a number 10,000 on that NASDAQ jumping around some other stories going on this morning so we mentioned it it is Fed day what's next from the Fed will help decide the course for the market so the Fed started a meeting yesterday they come up with statement today 2 o'clock you're gonna get a press conference as well strategist expect that chairman Powell to seek to soothe markets but there are some questions pros hope to have answers like how much treasury purchases does the Fed plan as the government issues more and more debt the Fed will be revealing its first forecast for the economy and interest rates since late last year as it skipped a forecast in March just as the pandemic forced an abrupt shutdown of the economy the market gonna be waiting for that things could seem exciting open could seem exciting first couple hours in trading as you approach that two o'clock mark you may see things calm down a bit and just wait for that announcement wait for the press conference and see what the man himself John Powell has to say about this economy and what the Fed will be doing because one argument you can make is the only reason that the market to where we are right now is the fact that the Fed and Congress has acted maybe unparalleled in in my history maybe in you know generations history in terms of the amount of records stimulus trillions of dollars and guess what if that's what allows this economy to rebound in the two three six month horizon that the markets tell us is gonna happen why not let's check in on the VIX this morning as the market chugs higher now this is interesting stuff right last week we have the VIX at 2354 we have the S&P's within 20 points of basically being positive for the year we have the NASDAQ comp above 10,000 we have the Dow up 5,000 points almost since May 14th and the VIX just traded from 2354 we're still above 27 stay tuned folks we'll be going over some other equities with earnings and news this morning stay tuned we'll be right back in three minutes many of our new listeners have heard about the Tigers Den the Tigers Den is a lively community where professional traders and investors can meet exchange ideas and information in a 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and I say about 5,000 is the run up in Boeing Boeing pairing some of that though yesterday pulling back from that 239 high that it had just after the close on Monday Boeing going to trade a bit lower as well this morning from 216 to 212 jumping around some of the other equities with news so five below really moving this morning they had a quarterly loss of 91 cents compared to a consensus estimate of 33 cent loss the discount retailers revenue came in below forecast although the company said about 90% of its stores have now reopened five is their symbol whoops F I V E and talk about an acceleration from 100 to 116 that's like a 16 16% right you closed yesterday it almost 104 those work about $12 talk about a pop on that news and and I imagine they're talking about 90% of the stores still open and guess what you see in here let's jump around because there's a few equities that caught my eye so they had a quarterly loss of 91 cent to share now where was it somebody had $6 plus where are we yeah red Robin group so check out this one $6 and 66 cents per share they lost for the first quarter compared to looking for $1.10 revenue also came in below estimates comp store sales falling 20.8% red Robin's business hit hard by the pandemic related closures but the company said trends have been improving in recent weeks as restaurants reopen RRGB is their symbol tell the two worlds not quite the pop that five got right you go from 17 down to 15 the conference call began at eight o'clock in the morning you're trading up a bit for some context of where we've been here from 37 to four my goodness right and now we're back at 16 15 just a remarkable drop off for five you quite a different world you go from 115 down to 47 but we're going to open today right back at 116 let's find that in the chart 116 yeah so you're right in this range that you were at prior to COVID which is a remarkable feat for some of these now one of the stories back there as well AMC Tom and I talked about this I talked about this so we're trading higher we got some news on AMC in their terms that they're going to be open back up in July I believe but but folks if if this stock was trading at $6.35 in January and I'm picking arbitrary dates what's the high here the low of this high bar the low of the bar $7 713 the bid ask right now is it just under 7 all right this is where the bid ask is we had a tough day yesterday is and we pulled back look at this trend but you're telling me AMC has repaired everything like the COVID didn't even happen now AMC is really had some tough goes but AMC and I believe I have an article yeah so they're going to reopen theaters globally in July shares rise AMC Entertainment said it expects to reopen its theater theaters globally in July after shutting them down in mid-March due to the COVID-19 pandemic it expects to run with limited capacity and block seeding to maintain safety at its theaters last week it flagged substantial doubts about its ability to continue operations if it was forced to keep its theaters closed for a longer period set on Tuesday it expects to reopen the theaters globally in July after shutting them down the world's largest movie theater operators so it was planning to reopen almost all of its US and UK theaters in time to showcase Christopher Nolan's tenant tenant slated for release on July 17th she's talking about approximately five weeks from right now and then you have Disney Disney's Mulan on July 24th the following so they want to be ready for that what I don't understand is I mean even if you're going one seat maybe in between you're losing between 20 and 30 per 40% of your capacity right if you take one out of every three seats that's 33% you couldn't make a case that you could pair up you know two people go together then you have one seat you're losing capacity no matter what so in a world where movie theaters were already in trouble so you know Disney had a great year last year ten films I think grossed more than a billion dollars in the box office so they came in with 10 plus billion dollars in box office revenue which is why you saw Disney got hit pretty hard still not quite back up to where you might expect with the growth that they've had in Disney plus streaming jumping around to everything here but there's your full year back on AMC let's even just really for some context here right I mean you're talking about from January of 17 you were 33 October of 18th you're approaching two years you go from 20 down to 2 you're back at 6 you don't need to be a chartist to see this downtrend folks yeah we've had a pop off the lows but that's a tough one because they were already dealing with a lot of woes in terms of people or whether it's Netflix whether it's Disney whether it's you know now Disney owns Hulu ESPN plus all of those streaming could you know HBO Max coming online and let's just zoom in so this is going to be and there's your run from Disney so not quite back up how do you have a stock like AMC back to pre-covid levels and you don't have a stock like Disney they're both dealing with some problems Disney's had a huge acceleration in their Disney plus streaming numbers their parks aren't even open until July as well but the movie theaters aren't open either and they still have the problem of competing with the likes of Amazon and Netflix as in Amazon Prime Netflix HBO interesting stuff when you start seeing AMC trading back to pre-covid levels when they're telling us that they want to be ready to showcase a movie that opens in five weeks on July 17th craziness I feel like sometimes okay some of the other stocks with headlines jumping over well before we do mortgage demand so this was kind of cool mortgage demand from home buyers amazes again now up 13% annually despite rising rates well yesterday they did not rise that's for sure we saw quite a rise in the price lower yields application for loans to purchase a home rose 5% last week from the previous week 13% higher than a year ago the average contract interest rate for 30 year fixed mortgages rose to 3.38% that's that's quite a number from 3.37 okay here we go stocks will come to the top chewy yet chewy the big food dog food animal food retailer posted a loss of 12 cents a share smaller than the 16 the market was looking for they also reported better than expected revenue and an upbeat revenue forecast active customers now stand at 15 million up from 33% a year ago that's remarkable now I don't personally have any pets right now love to maybe get a nice big dog in a nice German shepherd sometime in the future I mean look at this acceleration from that March 13th low $20 we're gonna open basically flat a little bit lower at 50 77 on their numbers pretty close to in line you see the volatility there from 53 to 48 to 50 but remarkable you can see that somehow it goes in the beginning of COVID from above 30 to 20 and talk about accelerating me you know everyone's home right everyone's home with their pets buying pet food buying all sorts of food maybe you're buying more pets because you're spending so much time at home you can actually be with them take care of them and chewy right at about $50 you see the acceleration they're remarkable they've grown so much in a year because I would say even as a non pet owner they are a known brand last year and somehow they are still crushing it on the growth other companies here with earnings jumping around we like we talked about AMC we talked about red Robin GameStop so they're out with their numbers $1.61 a share for the latest quarter that's what they lost greater than the loss of $1.27 the retailers revenue slightly below forecast comp store sales excluding closed locations so excluding those closed locations fell 17% what's up with that they're a game company and when you're comparing only stores they're open one bright spot one bright spot a 519% increase in e-commerce sales here's deal percentages can get really weird when you're at very small numbers what were they doing last year on e-commerce sales if they were doing a hundred thousand dollars last year in e-commerce sales then they could do $519,000 in e-commerce sales and tout that number and it would be negligible right something to consider when you're looking at percentages off small numbers GameStop down a bit to 467 stay tuned folks we come right back in three minutes see what else we have on tab for Wednesday trading it's Fed Day we'll be right back back in the day I joined the Hotel California in 2006 and like many of you was drawn in by as well as whatever you think about you bring about whatever you focus on growth you see I believe that everything in life happens for us not to us and Tom ignited the fire within me to want to learn how to master the markets so how did I go from knowing nothing about technical analysis to becoming the number one market timer for the S&P 500 in 2018 and the number two market timer in 2019 simply put I hired 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in the Dow but staggering numbers of course we get the jobs number on Friday you see the lead up to the jobs number I mean the Dow had already priced in 3.5 percent before Friday's number Friday adds 3.2 you're talking 6.7 percent last week alone and Monday we open and we say that's not enough we're going up 1.7 we're down 1.1 and jumping back we get the VIX at above 27 so Starbucks try to Starbucks up here quite a drop off that's what will happen folks when you tell the world that we lost three billion dollars in revenue in the latest quarter due to coronavirus pandemic of a Starbucks pull bull owned some Starbucks in some capacity but they lost 3.2 billion in revenue revenue during the fiscal third quarter the coffee chain expects to swing to a loss in the fiscal third quarter it also expects same store sales in the US and China to decline 10 to 20 percent for the full fiscal year the chain is forecasting adjusted losses per share 55 cents to 70 cents it expects fiscal fourth quarter where earnings will improve predicting adjusted earnings to 15 to 40 for the full fiscal year they expect same store sales in the US to the client 10 to 20 percent numbers here though pretty interesting same store sales fell 43% in May as compete as the company reopened locations with modified hours by the end of the month 91% of the US stores had been reopened in May in the last week of May same store sales tumbled just 32% just 32% I don't know if I would use the word just but everything is context but Starbucks getting hit hard on that from 83 down to 86 and a couple other equities before we wrap it up you have Amazon unveiling small business credit line with Goldman in the latest tie up between tech and Wall Street as Amazon looks to open at all-time highs and how about MGM they're going to reopen more Vegas casinos following the strong performance of some of those casinos already open MGM looking open a bit higher today stay tuned folks Larry Pezzavento live with trade what you see at nine o'clock live