 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network It is a Friday here on covering the spread which means it is time to talk some strikeout props And who better to do so then Rob Friedman pitching ninja or bringing him on today to talk about his favorite strikeout props across Friday at Fandall sportsbook and of course the daily Pitching leaderboard for strikeouts over at Fandall. It is going to be a delight as always This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network. My name is Jim saw this I am a digital media managing editor for Fandall research joint here as mentioned by Rob Friedman check him out on Twitter at pitching ninja You can find him at peacock and they'll be on Fox and they'll be calm and of course Fandall sportsbook as well Rob fantastic Friday slate a lot of fun pitching options for today. How you doing? I am doing great I'm doing better now that I heard your intro because that really gets me fired up for again I think you can like downgrade your your cups of coffee per day by like a half a cup if you have that intro blaring at some point I think that that does really reduce your required caffeine intake just because it's such a banger Absolutely, and especially when it gets to like that the dentist drill type thing at the end Yeah, like that Fantastic like the the outro is the same song and I will like it as I'm editing the podcast of the end I let that puppy roll because like, you know I didn't hear the transition to make sure like end of my voice transitions well with when the music begins But like I let it roll because I need to be in a good mood for the day and honestly Rob I don't need the performance enhancers to have a good day today because again good pitching slate once again for tonight One of your favorites. Hey Zeus Lazardo is pitching for tonight. We got that going just in verlander back with the Astros That's pretty exciting and overall fun pitching slate So again, I feel like we've gotten pretty lucky with having you on I know it's Friday So that helps because 15 games, but like I think I've gotten pretty lucky with having you on for a lot of fun Slates. Yeah 15 games a lot of work for me though Like I sit there and watch all of them and it's you know, it's tough being pitching and you know I know you got to get again the ice baths for the fingers to make sure you're all ready to get going Get like the big shoulder wrap except for each finger. We'll we'll get a medical team out there Because that sports science is very important. So we'll work on that for sure before we dive into the pitching problems for today Quick reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast We broke down EPL match week one with Austin Cass yesterday getting his thoughts on the opening week of the English Premier League That is up on the covering the spread podcast feed I also talked NASCAR in Indianapolis yesterday So get some thoughts on that on the covering the spread podcast feed a fan dual YouTube and fan dual TV plus as well Let's take a look at this fun slate Rob for Friday night and dig into the pitching props And you like most beginning with those strikeout props when you look at the pitching props for today Which strikeout number stand out most to you? Well, I mean I have a parlay and today is of course the pitching in your profit boost token day At Fandle we get 30% right here Look at that look at that But my parlay I was going with Paul Blackburn for 4k's or more Jose Barrios for 6k's or more and then Kyle Gibson for 6k's or more I just you know, we were talking off-camera about about Blackburn and he has been surprisingly Racking up case this year. I know he's got a tough matchup obviously with the with the Nats, but I Think it's more about him. I think he's you know 4k's the kind of low number It's a very low number and I think that the matchup is valid because although the National's offense obviously is not great They just got no hit this week They are a low strikeout team 20% striker for them But they also you're not wasting pitches against them because they don't walk either So like if you're looking at them against righties they average is 3.76 pitches per plate appearance and Blackburn is a guy who goes even with the A's not competing for anything he goes very deep in games and when you combine How deep he goes in games the strikeout numbers I had Blackburn projected for 4.9 strikeouts tonight and he needs four to get this number and his overrated There's any pretty high so the over three and a half strikeouts is minus 134 when you're watching Blackburn this year What have you noticed? Do you know what has led to? Not just the strikeouts, but also I think just being a good overall well-rounded pitcher this year I thought his breaking self looked better than I remembered so to me I always viewed him as a guy that was more pitch to contact a pitcher And he's he's actually getting a good amount of case and I've noticed that you know a lot on his breaking ball I don't know. I've turned into a quiet Paul Blackburn fan. Yeah, he's been fun to watch. He's been productive He's still suppressing hard contact So I think that Blackburn over three and a half minus 134 very enticing the other two mentioned were Jose Barrios and Kyle Gibson Let's go to Barrios first taking on the Cubs The number for Barrios here for his strikeout prop to get to Over five and a strikeouts is plus 105. What are your thoughts of Barrios in this match up here at the Cubs? I think he's been pitching better lately. I think he's he's viewing himself. He's got it together He's got his confidence back Fix some directional issues with his mechanics So since he's done that, you know, I've seen him Knockin on the door of being an ace at times and this is a time to step up for him So I I like him here and I expect a big day from him. It's an important game for them Obviously every game matters for the blue jays right now. I think that that always is an important time of year too kind of judging how Much a team is going to care and how willing they'll be to let a horse run and Barrios is a guy who can't go 100 and 500 and 100 and six pitches when he needs to So I think that is enticing for him too now with Kyle Gibson. I do my research for today and I saw a spike in strikeouts recently and Rob I was digging into his pitch mix digging into velocity and I couldn't figure out why So explain to me what the heck happened with Kyle Gibson to lead to this surge You know, all I know is his changeup has looked really good to me Like one of the filthier changeups quietly In baseball amongst starting pitchers and I've been surprised at it too Like I see him as a k guy now And I think a k guy going against the Mariners kind of like that matchup So, uh, yeah, that's why I'm taking him It is definitely a good matchup the Mariners active roster 25 strikeout rate against reddies That is one of the highest marks on tonight's slate Actually the second highest among all teams for tonight and Gibson again on a roll right now So two former twins in the uh the parlay here for Rob Gibson over five and a half barrios over five and a half and then blackburn over three and a half And I think that one individually by far my favorite because that number is just very Very low and again if you want to parlay them together You can with the pitching ninja profit boost a 30 profit boost on that available for all three plus like parlays Over at fan dual sports book now Rob because most of the starting pitchers have been announced for today We do have the daily strikeout leader board up over at fendall sports But can you are commenting before we went on air about how there are a lot of guys side of the top right now? Blake stell. Hey, suce. Lazardo landslin Luis Castillo and Justin Berliner all plus 550 I'm a bit surprised by that honestly Seeing this many guys group together I'm also a bit surprised at corbin burns if we're going to put that many guys together that he's not one of those So what's your read on this leaderboard right now? Yeah, that jumped out of me because I have burns as definitely a contender Certainly up with the guys that he's that he's behind right there. Right It wouldn't surprise me. It's not a bad matchup for him at all I think some of these other matchups may be a little tougher for the pitchers involved But I don't think you know, I consider burns. I would have I would have thought he might be the favorite here I thought so too honestly just because The white socks are a team that I talked about this before with the nationals But the white socks have very short plate appearances. They're not drawing stuff out They're not drawing walks. They're walk rate against righties 6.7 percent this year on the active roster So even though they're not like a massive strikeout team You're not wasting pitches against them. Like I I love Blake snow Blake snow is pitching like a madman right now, but he's facing Arizona, which is a low strikeout team and They they have drawn out plate appearances despite that and snail as we know can have those plate appearances by himself too so like I have burns a half strikeout below Snell in my projections, but like that's not a big enough gap I don't think to have the discrepancy between burns and snow much less having burns this far below Verlander and other guys as well. Yeah to me if I were I mean looking at it I think it comes down to those two snails been Really really good, but yeah, he does walk folks and Arizona's got you know the capability to take him deep into counts It could be a short outing for him still my you know, he's going to get his case because he just he's that guy But I kind of like I mean I I kind of like burns there and I wouldn't like as a sleeper What do we have Gibson at he's like way down there. Yeah, he's 44 to 1. That's not bad Yeah, I mean, he's had some he's had some games where he'll rack up case. I don't know what number is going to win today I think it's probably my guess it's 9 or 10 I think so. Yeah, so can he get 9 or 10? Yeah, I can see 9 out of him. It's not impossible I think that with both burns and snail being on the road That's going to lower like the threshold you need to hit in order to win because that matters a decent amount There aren't a lot of like other guys who strike out a ton like I think Lance Lynn can do that He's at home. But like do you get the same home bump when it's a brand new team? I I guess I don't really know how that works psychologically But like I think that because you've got the two Biggest horses pitching on the road. I think that will lower the number Which is why Gibson's on the road too But like that could lower the number to the point where Gibson at least at 44 to 1 is at least very much in the discussion Yeah, I mean 44 to 1 that's that's what I'm looking at Like I wouldn't say he should be up there among the favorites But if you're going to give me 44 to 1 on it, I had throw a flyer on it. Why not? Absolutely I didn't want to ask you one quick thing about snow and burns before we close up here because The thing that has impressed me most about them we talked about this a bit of blackbird But the strikeouts are great. We love strikeouts You know you you make your living off of strikeouts, but they are getting strikeouts while also suppressing hard contact and like How do you do that? Like I know that's like if you could answer that question you'd be a millionaire and you'd be like you'd be off hanging out You know you'd be the highest paid pitching coach in baseball But like how are guys like snow and burns able to get those strikeouts without sacrificing? Letting up a lot of hard contact Yeah, I mean it really comes down to stuff But they do it differently because burns can be a really good command guy like when he's on Command of his cutter is just perfect. He you know so many different pitches where snow is a force of nature He comes at you. He also can lose the strike zone every once in a while But his stuff both of them the the the one common denominator is stuff They both have stuff that just is very hard to make contact on they go about their game so differently though Like they're very very different pitchers and that's what kind of makes it fun to watch too I think that that's been a delight for sure. Okay, so we got burns taken on the white socks now taken on the dinebacks We got Kyle Gibson with the late night hammers as well. So it should be a fun night overall That is Rob Friedman. Make sure you check him out on twitter at pitching engine Don't forget that 30 profit boost over at vandal sportsbook as well for a three plus leg parley Rob, good luck to you with the strikeout props for tonight and join the baseball We'll talk to you once again next week. Absolutely. Thanks for having me Alrighty again. Check out rob on twitter at pitching ninja and find all his work on peacock MLB on fox mlb.com and of course right here at vandal sportsbook as well never turned down a profit boost because those are One of the few things we get we get as advantage of sports betters as they try to Level the playing field at least a bit. We're going to dig into some money lines I like for tonight over at vandal sportsbook here And just one second the first the link for this week's fandal research daily fantasy free roll Is now available at vandal.com slash research it revolves around saturday's main slate For the english premier league as they return to the pitch lock is at 10 a.m. Eastern on saturday We're running these free rolls every week through the end of nfl season to celebrate their transition to fandal research And thank all the loyal number fire users to get the link and enter go to fandal dot com slash research and look for The story on the front page eligibility restrictions apply Let's take a look at some money lines. I like tonight over at fandal sportsbook And let's begin with some of these coast games and obviously these make me a little bit uncomfortable because we are betting on some teams That are not super fun to bet on right now. One of those is the new york mets I show value in the mets money law It's currently plus 156 over at fandal sportsbook as they take on the atlanta braves Seems bad to better get the the mets against the braves with the state of each got each teams roster, but there's a reason i'm here and I think my model is pretty low on tylor miguel miguel starting tonight for the mets and When I know my model is low on a starting pitcher and it still shows value on that team I'm pretty inclined to take that bet and that's the case we get here miguel Struggled in triple a it is for any struggle in this first hour back in the majors And he struggled with the same things that were causing him issues that led to it's a demotion down to triple a So that's not great. And that's why I don't want to be here But on the opposing side is charlie morten who? has had his own issues specifically with command and Despite the pitching accidents the mets have had their offense is still pretty good 113 a wrc plus against righties pita lanzo is just crushing it right now and when you add that that offense to This situation I buy into what the model is saying I've got the the mets win odds pretty decent amount above 40 percent They're implied odds at plus 156 or 39.1 percent. So I actually Don't hate it. I mean I kind of hate it like the fact that I'm betting on tylor miguel betting against the atlanta braids But I understand what we're getting at here And if I know the model is low on miguel and it still shows value That to me says I should feel okay betting the mets so the mets at plus 156 the first money line I like for tonight Second one a slight favorite the pittsburgh pirates taking on the since that he read for tonight This one won't make you vomit as much I think the reason why my model is showing value here is continued skepticism about how sustainable andrew abbott's run is he lets up a lot of fly balls and He lets up enough hard contact make it kind of squeamish You don't think that combo pays off super often where usually if a guy is a big fly ball pitcher He suppresses hard contact abbott doesn't really do that and doesn't have like a massive strikeout rate 25% big but Not a huge huge number and the pirates offense not great against lefties, but they're not putrid either pirates starting yohan oviedo and Seemed like he's been getting a bit better recently getting a couple more strikeouts And he started to use his foreseeing fastball a bit more 13 starts ago and when he combined it together with Expected regression for abbott. I have the pirates win odds at 56.8 percent They're implied odds at minus 112 are 52.8 percent So I think that's good enough to feel good about the pirates here And bet them and I feel less squeamish about that one than with the mets But that makes sense when the money line is minus 112 which is the other one is plus 156 So you get a couple of west coast games for the final two money lines the first one is the los angeles angels They are a plus 150 actually in texas Taking on the astros I do show a value in the angels money line at plus 150 here taking on houston My model puts the angels win odds closer to 45 percent than the implied 40 percent so I do feel good taking the money line here and It's largely due to continued skepticism around justin verlander He has not had the same strikeout upside this year He's had in the years past and strikeouts play a key role in peripherals because Every strikeout isn't out unless it's a pass ball Or a wild pitch versus Ground ball can be a single a fly ball can be a home run stuff like that You want strikeouts to improve your peripherals and verlander is not getting those right now Maybe the astros can tap back into that but You're really relying on An assumption in order to justify this price He's facing redemurs the starter for the angels and he's had some rough starts recently but Underline numbers still good. He's faced a lot of tough opponents including the astros so I think the market's a bit too high in houston here. So i'm fine riding with the underdog with the angels at plus 150 final money line for me for tonight is going to be the san francisco giants the giants are going to roll out an opener for tonight The opener for them is going to be scott alexander alexander opening in front of likely a ross tripling So stripling is basically the guy of projecting to be the starter here for the giants And stripling is not a full starter working behind an opener for the most part But he's still pitching really well if you look at the eight outings for stripling with fewer curve balls He has a 3.53 skill interactive eray. Thanks to a very very low walk rate and he's got really good bad at ball data He's facing john gray and gray has started to Pick things back up a bit recently, but he's still not pitching the way he was back in the spring I love gray back in the spring was taking strikeout overs on him pretty often But velocity has been down. It's been a very weird stretch for john gray And I don't think he's fully out of the woods with that one just yet My model puts the giants win odds at 56.8 percent their plot odds are 51.9 percent So I think they're a mighty fine bet at minus 108 for tonight. So to reiterate here Before money lines i like for tonight the giants minus 108 the pirates minus 112 The mets plus 156 and the angels at plus 150 all available over at vandal sportsbook That is all that we have here for today on covering the spread Want to give a big thank you once again to rob freeman for swinging by Breaking down his favorite strikeout props for tonight a check him out on twitter at pitching ninja Again, if you did not catch our epl preview from atreak one of the austin cast that is up in the covering the spread podcast Feed right now along with my thoughts on nascar cup series and xfinity series and indianapolis find those over on the Fandal research the covering the spread podcast feed fandal youtube page and fandal tv plus monday Dr. Ed fang is back with us talks women's world cup talk the semifinals and the futures market We'll get that right here in the same feed as well. If you have any questions for me I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s you can also follow fandal research at fandal research Want to thank you all for tuning in this has been covering the spread part of the fandal podcast network