 What's up everybody? So if you're in real estate in any capacity, I'm sure you're sitting around wondering when this whole thing is going to crash and burn. It's been going on for way too long. So I want to talk about that. I want to dive into the data and also why real estate investors are less optimistic about the US housing market. Let's go. First, I want to let you know that over the last seven days, I've picked up eight listings and these were all just people that are in my database, either referrals or past clients that call me to come list their properties. And on my team call Monday of Agents all over the country, I asked them, hey guys, are you getting people in your database that have been getting your weekly email or however you market and build your brand? Are you getting people calling you out of the blue saying we're interested in selling? And the answer was yes. Most of them were nodding their head yes on the Zoom call. They're getting sellers, property owners calling them out of the blue, people that they've created relationships with, reaching out to them and saying, hey, I'm thinking about selling. Now with the trend of the market, I think this is something that's going to continue as we move forward here. I think more and more owners are going to understand where we are in the markets as the data becomes more and more mainstream and they're going to become more and more interested in selling because we're kind of teetering at the top of the pricing as we have exploded in price over the last year. Back on June 1st, I posted a video. It was called my euphoric market prediction for real estate agents. And basically what I was saying there was that no, we have a huge massive seller bubble here where there's so many sellers, so many property owners who want to sell but can't. For two reasons. One, there's nothing to buy. There was nothing to buy at that moment in time. And inventory is still very, very low as we sit here today. But there was nothing to buy and there's still nothing to buy. So that still causes a problem but also the second reason was even more interesting and that was that they didn't want to leave money on the table because prices were going up, up, up and up. So my theory was that as time moves on and prices start to level out, once sellers realize that prices are leveling out and they've reached the top and that they probably are going to leave money on the table if they don't sell because prices may start to decline a little, then you're going to have so many sellers reaching out to their real estate agent, whoever they have a relationship with to come sell their property. So basically my euphoric prediction for real estate agents was that one day you're going to wake up after making all these calls and putting all this work in to build all these relationships with not a whole lot of sales behind all the work, all of it's going to pay off at once because when this wave hits of sellers who realize we're at the top that want to sell, they're going to call you whoever it was that created that relationship. And in that moment, we're still going to have buyers in our pockets that may or may not have been able to find exactly what they're looking for. And as we acquire these listings, we will have buyers that we are also representing and therefore getting both sides of the transactions with some states don't allow you to get both sides. I understand that. Nevertheless, it's going to be an extremely euphoric moment for several, several months where the market is readjusting. Okay, there's going to be a readjustment period and that readjustment period has begun. I'll put a link to the video of my euphoric market prediction for real estate agents in the description below. And before we dive into some redfin data, I would appreciate it if you would smash the like button and also register for my event in Connecticut. That's going to be October 26. I'm going to put a link in the description or you can go to zero to diamond.com backslash events. This is going to be the event of 2021 and it's going to be what carries you into 2022 on fire. I'm looking forward to seeing all of you guys there. Okay, let's hop over to the redfin data center here and look at the new listings. These different lines represent 2021 going back to 2018. Okay, and as you can see, there's always a drop off second half of the year going into that last quarter. All right, and the same is here. However, if you notice, it's even down lower in 2021. Okay, so inventory continues to drop. Okay, as we move over to the prices, as you can see every year, things kind of level out this time of year or even decline. And we're seeing the same thing this year. Okay, so things peaked out at about 361, 361,000 median sales price and we're down to 358. Okay, so we actually hit a peak there about two months ago. All right, and now we're kind of down to flat, you know, 1% or so. So that's very interesting because we have, fewer houses on the market and we have a leveling out and even a slight decrease in prices. Okay, also, when you look at pending sales here, you see the same trend over the years here, but you see 2020, as the pandemic happened, there was the dip, okay, then exploded from there. Okay, that continued into 2021. Right, and now we're seeing things drop off in terms of pending sales. Okay, and as you can see, compared to 2021, the gap is getting smaller and smaller right there. And so what that tells us is that we have a slightly lower price. Okay, a lot less listings. Okay, but also fewer pending sales and that's what's causing the prices to adjust a little bit. And I might add that out of the eight listings I got over the last seven days, I thought with the market, the way that it has been that at least two or three or even four, maybe half of these listings would be gone. Okay, I've only sold one of them and it did have multiple offers, but the other seven, I've had hardly any showings at all, much less than he offers. This is an interesting article here from the Florida trend. Okay, Florida home sellers cutting their prices after shooting for the moon. Okay, this is very interesting here, Florida home sellers cutting prices. Okay, what they're talking about is that the sellers are getting really greedy with the housing market, right, but it's been backfiring on them here lately. Okay, many are setting prices too high, trying to squeeze out every dollar from buyers who are willing to pay well over asking price. Okay, a growing percentage of sellers quickly learned that they'll have to get real. All right, some 9.4 of the homes on the market in August had reduced prices up from 8.6 in July, just July. Okay, this is not compared to last year, this is compared to, you know, a few months ago. This is according to Zillow. Okay, in May and June prices, price cuts stood at 7.8% and 7.7, all right, indicating the over aggressiveness has spread. And that's what we're seeing across the country here, not just in Florida. Okay, we're seeing that prices have been shooting to the moon, to the moon, to the moon. And then what happens is sellers continue to price them at the moon prices. Right, they're still shooting for the moon, but the market has slowed down. Demand has come down. There's less buyers interested at the higher and higher prices go, the less buyers are interested. Okay, and there comes an inflection point in the market where things have to slow down a little bit. Okay, these prices aren't going to go to a half a million on average, 600 on average, a million dollars, you know, as much as sellers would want to see some of that stuff happen, it's just not going to happen. We were seeing sellers price their properties at, you know, 10, 20, 30% higher and still selling the properties six months ago, eight months ago. Okay, but you do that now. And what's happened, the properties are just sitting on the market with hardly any showings. Now the market is still great. Okay, but the trick is you have to price the property according to the last comps. You can't continue pricing them way higher than the last comps. Okay, where we are in the market right now with prices down about 1% over the last month or so. Okay, we have come to a leveling point in the markets. And now if you want to sell your house, you have to price it around that last sale, which by the way is still up astronomically from last year. I think when you couple the fact that what we're seeing here in the Redfin data, what I'm seeing in my personal business with people just calling me to list their properties and the demand not being near what it was several months ago, the fact that when I ask my team of agents all over the country, if they're having sellers calling them out of the blue to list their properties, they're shaking their head. Yes. I think when you couple all this together, we realize that we're getting into this euphoric place for real estate agents. What we're going to have a lot of people that want to sell the more and more that this information becomes mainstream, we're going to have more and more sellers come to us. Inventory is going to slightly start to increase, which is going to make more people want to sell because then they're going to be able to find what they want to buy and what they want to upgrade to because it's only human nature that you want to upgrade to a nicer house so on and so forth. So as things progress here, the market actually is going to get better and better for real estate agents going to level out 2022 is priming up to be one incredible year for agents. If you guys haven't noticed and you're not realizing what I'm saying here and in other news here, real estate investors are less optimistic about the U.S. housing market. Okay. So this is from MarketWatch and basically they're saying that real track reported 48% of individual real estate investors view the investment markets being worse or much worse than it was a year ago. Okay. This is based on the results of a survey. So that's up from 45%. So it went from 45% to 48%. Okay. And when they talk about the reason why the top concern is that the rising cost of homes, okay, 63% of responded listed as a major challenge. The next challenge was lack of inventory, okay, which was cited by 57% of the investors. So 63% of the investors are saying that the cost of homes is a big concern for investors, but also the lack of inventory. Something else that I thought was very interesting was foreclosures. Okay. It goes on to say that, you know, with the lack of foreclosures, there's less properties to buy. Okay. The availability of mortgage forbearance and the ongoing moratorium on foreclosures at the federal level has meant that the foreclosure activity was down 70% in August versus the same time period in 2019. Okay. It's according to real track, the number of homes and foreclosure is at its lowest level on record. All right. Because of the appreciation and home prices to get this, this is the interesting part. Because of the appreciation of home prices, many people who are in the forbearance and behind the mortgage payments may be able to sell their homes rather than to go into default because they have so much equity because prices have went up so much. Investors remain divided to whether they believe that foreclosure activity will return to normal in the future or surpass typical levels. Okay. So I myself, I buy foreclosures and flip them. That is something that I do and I do quite often and it's true. Ever since the forbearance started last year, there have hardly been any foreclosures. We've picked up just a couple and we're sitting around thinking, okay, what's going to happen? You know, are foreclosures going to come back? When are they going to come back? How many are they going to be? So on and so forth. So it's going to be really interesting to see as we move forward what happens. Something else interesting in the news is the Fed moves its time laying up for rake heights as an inflation rises. And the most interesting part of this article as I scroll down here is the fact that they say that in 2023, there's going to be two hikes, okay? Which before back in March at the Fed meeting, they said that they weren't going to do any increases till 2024. So they changed their mind from 2024 to saying there's going to be two rake heights in 2023 to keep up with inflation, okay? Now if they start to raise interest rates in 2023, that's obviously going to make an impact on real estate, okay? But here's the unknown and that is the fact that they're always changing their minds. Like one minute, they're saying 2024, then they're saying two hikes in 23. And so we don't know what they're going to do when they're going to do it. And so that's something to keep our eyes on as well. Thank you for watching today's video. I'm going to continue to do everything I can to prepare you for 2022. It's going to be our best year ever. Click that like button, click subscribe. Let me know what in the world I can do for you and we'll talk to you soon. Let's go.