 In the midst of an unprecedented crisis, Ukraine is facing a new reality. While the past decade has provided a supportive environment to sustain growth, transformations in the global economy make this environment increasingly uncertain and disruptive. To explore the way forward for the Ukrainian economy, the World Economic Forum engaged more than 300 experts and decision-makers in a strategic dialogue about future scenarios. Two factors loom large in this assessment. The quality of institutions within Ukraine and their capacity to support investments, innovation and the full potential of its educated workforce. Developments in the global economy and their effects on Ukraine's terms of trade and support for quick wins in the Ukrainian economy. Different developments of these factors formed the basis for three challenging scenarios. Unlocking the virtuous circle. A new social contract built on transparency, mutual trust and the emergence of a public service culture across Ukrainian institutions underpins transformational change in the economy. Widely supported reforms yield significant inflows of investments and deliver inclusive prosperity. Lost in stagnation. Stakeholders fail to find common ground on a strong forward-looking vision. The inability to implement deep reforms leaves the economy highly fragile. As the external environment continues to deteriorate, the country is stuck in a rapidly escalating downward spiral. Back to the future. Deteriorating global conditions demand decisive actions. This marks the return of big business working in hand with big government. Focus on new trade and investment opportunities initially reignites growth but societal tensions and lacking incentives for modernization constrain Ukraine's long-term development prospects. These scenarios describe possible characteristics of the way forward. They allow us to discuss strategic options and long-term plans for action. If we take this process forward, embrace change and collaborate effectively. Ukraine can transform itself into the economic success that it has always promised to become.