 Hello and welcome to CMC Markets on Friday the 20th of April on this quick preview of the week beginning 23rd of April before we move on to that. I think there's a couple of things that I'd like to look at first We've had another or we look as if we're going to have another decent week for European equity markets the fourth successive positive week NRO And I think when you look back a few days and consider the concerns about an escalation Between Russia and the United States over what's going on in Syria and chemical weapons and those cruise missile attacks I think to some extent that's a little bit of a relief But certainly I think the overall background of trade concerns Haven't gone away. We've seen some fairly decent earnings out of the US European markets are also Performing fairly well, and I think overall risk appetite is mildly positive But I don't think it would take too much to tip the markets back lower And certainly over the course of the last few days those trade tensions that we've been talking about that have been operating in the Background has been starting to have some effect on commodity prices. The Reuters CRB index has hit its highest level since 2015 oil prices are back at $75 a barrel and Base metals prices have also surged quite substantially and that leads me to believe that investors could be underestimating the possibility of An inflation spike later in the year. It's something that I think bond markets are slowly starting to wake up to Certainly US treasuries did push higher The US Treasury yields did push higher and have pushed higher over the last 24 hours But let's focus on the oil price for now because at the moment, I think that's going to be One of the things over the course of the past week that could well dictate Inflation expectations going forward and this is the daily chart And I have looked at this quite a number of times over the course of the past few weeks And this is our new HTML trading platform that I'm looking at the moment as you can see not really that different from the old flex platform but certainly think it's It's much more responsive and certainly in terms of features. It's It's much more flexible. You can actually pop out the windows Into a new browser tab like so and then move it around the screen independently of the actual platform Just knock it back in again, and it comes in like that now. We've just broken above 71 dollars 65 a barrel That's the 50% retracement of the entire down move from the 2014 peaks and at the moment. We haven't really We haven't really had the opportunity to get back below it And I think that does raise the risk that we could well be in line for future rises in oil prices And I think that could well influence inflation expectations going forward now next week We have got a whole host of data coming out particularly UK based We've got first-quarter GDP from the UK and in light of Mark Carney's comments over the past 24 hours about the possibility or not of a UK rate rise that's going to be of particular interest to the markets But I'd also remind people that first-quarter GDP for the UK tends to be the weakest quarter anyway Because it generally tends to get affected by bad weather. So Well, I think mr. Carney's comments have knocked the pound quite substantially And have reduced the risk of a UK rate rise in May from 85 percent to around about 50 percent I certainly don't think it's the end of the story because I think there's certainly a broad difference of opinion on The MPC about the direction of interest rates and let's face it We're talking a move from 0.5 to 0.75 percent It's chicken feeding the wider scheme of things but the big level on the pound against the dollar Next week or over the course of the next few days is the lows that we've seen this month in April this this Level here and the 50-day moving average 139 70 we are starting to roll over But if we actually look at the way the pounds behaved over the course of the past few months It's still significantly in an uptrend and is likely to remain so Unless or until it drops a well below 137 so We have certainly got some way to go before this particular uptrend Can be called into question We can come all the way back to 137 50 these lows here even and still have the uptrend intact Even though you could argue this could be the potential Basis for a double top, but that would only come about if we come back all the way back below or towards 137 50 So what are we waiting? So first quarter GDP out of the UK next week We've also got first quarter GDP out of the United States next week But more importantly, we've also got the European Central Bank rate meeting. That's due out on Thursday Not really expecting too much from that I think if you're looking for any sort of ideas as to whether or not the ECB is going to dial back on its guidance In terms of when they're going to win the asset purchase program whether that's going to be in September or December I think Mr. Draghi is going to be deliberately circumspect when it comes to Really go giving any clear indication on that and we've also got flash PMIs from Germany and France due out on Monday and those numbers have been steadily coming off their highs Since the end of last year and are likely to continue to do so in next week's numbers So I think at the moment there is concern that the ECB is looking to dial back on stimulus at precisely the time when we're getting a little bit of a slowdown in the European economy and while inflation Continues to remain a little bit on the weak side though. How long that will continue to be the case I think will be largely dependent on how commodity prices behave over the course of the next few days Particularly oil prices because they could actually act as a break on demand a break on the global economy and a break on consumption It's also a big week for UK banks next week We've got the latest first quarter trading updates from Lloyd's Barclays and RBS And I'll be posting a short a brief note about them on the week ahead update on the website And Barclays in particular I think will be a particular it will be a particular interest given reports that active investor Edward Branson who owns a five percent who's just taken a five percent five percent stake easy for me to say Through his sure-born investors is heading for a showdown with management about his plans to offload the investment banking division But certainly I think if the I think if indications from US banks are any guide We'll be looking for an improvement in the fortunes of the Barclays investment bank given that has been the area that has been a Little bit lackluster over the course of the past few quarters We've also got a latest Microsoft's first quarter trading update Facebook in the light of the Cambridge Analytica scandal First quarter trading update as well on the 25th of April Okay, so that's it for this week ladies and gentlemen. Don't forget the Monday market webinar It'll be hosted by me on Monday 1215 as my colleague David decided to give him the day off or a couple of days off to Enjoy the sunshine. Otherwise. Thank you very much for listening and have a great weekend and I'll speak to you all next week Thank you