 Hi, my name is Leon Rowe, Comments Eat Trader and Trading Coach at Trading180.com and welcome to this week's supply and demand for us in Gold, Fundamental and Technical Analysis, getting into the week ahead, 16th of October. That's the Monday matter of fact, but Sunday night open is the 15th, so it says in the United States, investors will be paying attention to Fed speeches and data including retail sales, building permits, increasing starts, existing home sales and industrial production that all really contributes to the GDP picture. Internationally, inflation rates will be closely monitored in the United Kingdom, Canada, Japan and New Zealand and the higher inflation goes, or the stickier inflation is, is the more likely that central banks will likely to hike rates and to try and get inflation down to their 2% target. So inflation is going to be very important this week for those countries. China will grab attention with its quarter three GDP growth rate retail sales and industrial production, fixed asset investment, unemployment rate and house price index. And again, looking at China, although I don't really trade the Chinese one, it's good to look at the Chinese economy and the currency to see how they're doing because if China grow, then in fact it affects a lot of currencies, commodity currencies like the Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar as a benefit from China's growth due to them being really good in the biggest trade partners. So keeping now China for risk sentiment and global growth is important. And finally, the United Kingdom will release unemployment rate and retail sales figures and Germany will release the ZEW economic sentiment and that's all from tradingeconomics.com. You can get a detailed breakdown if you go to their website and click on the week ahead tab. Now for those of you who are in the Discord group, just a quick reminder that if you go to the trading videos channel, there's a link in there which takes you to this channel here which has all the private members videos and you can watch a detailed breakdown of the fundamental analysis, the weekly technical analysis of the trades that I'm looking at, as well as the weekly videos. Also as well for those of you watching on YouTube, I will be posting this video, which I thought was a really good trade setup. I posted it to the group on the 12th of October and you can see how I broke down this trade using a method called Capture Payne Relief. So getting into the, and that'll be, by the way, that'll be posted after this video. So after this analysis and then you'll get the second video. So keep watching. So yeah, going into some of the technicals and some more fundamentals. So what happened this week technically on the dollar index? I mean the dollar index is just a measure of dollar strength against the basket of currencies like the euro, the yen and the pound. And last week, I was saying that this area here was going to be a decent area to look for a buy trade confluence. You can see where you have demand, not only demand, but you also have an area of horizontal resistance turned to support. And I was saying the two areas that we were looking for was either going to be at this area here or pretty further down in that demand zone. And it turned out that in fact the US CPI data came out better than expected. So core CPI up in 0.3 in September headline gauge advances 0.4 percent and data underscore Fed intent to keep rates high and curve inflation is the headline. So US consumer prices advanced at brisk pace for the second month reinforcing the Fed's Federal Reserve's intent to keep interest rates high and bring down in inflation. So if we go to the CME Fed Watch tool, which basically gives you the likelihood that the Fed will change its interest rate upcoming FOMC meetings according to interest rate traders. November doesn't look like pretty much a done deal in terms of a no change, right? So 93 percent will be no change. But it's really December that is the date that you want to look towards in terms of rate hike. So if rate hikes start to increase or the probability of rate hike start to increase then you can see likely to see the dollar start to increase in an appreciation right increasing value as the market starts to price in a rate hike. But also what is supporting the the dollar in a risk off environment is that is an overall risk off sentiment in that you know the wider war in the Middle East could tip the world economy into a recession. And so it's really sad what's happening in Palestine and just pray for peace and the Hamas attack in Israel response are taking a heavy human toll. A global economic downturn may follow and then you know global economic downturn that is more of a risk off environment. And in a risk off environment the US economy in fact is seen as a bit of a safe haven like the Swiss Frank and the Japanese yen. But more I would say more so at the moment the US and the Swiss Frank because their economies and holding up a lot better also is what you're getting better yield if you hold a dollar and treasury bonds. So lots of things supporting a buy on the dollar at the moment to continue dollar buys I think anything anything on a pullback should be a thing of buy and that's my bias anyway of course this isn't financial advice but overall my bias is still to go long on the dollar even on pullbacks if it breaks below that level I'd be looking at long trades as long as the data supports the narrative. The dollar yen at the moment they're obviously the Fed holding November hike in December potentially and higher for longer rates which supports the the dollar but the Bank of Japan intervention support at 150 now what was interesting is that last week we did get some sort of intervention where there was definitely a massive sell-off last week but all the week before last sorry but when it comes to the yen going higher potentially top forecaster Mizuho sees yen tumbling even further in 2024 so Japanese currency may weaken to 155 by the end of March applet says and yen to slip as Fed sticks to higher for longer rates Mizuho so the yen is barreling towards his weakest level in more than 30 years as the Bank of Japan holds firmly to its uh stimulative monetary policy stance according to the currency's most accurate forecaster and so I'll just read this as well Garth Applet the head of foreign exchange at Mizuho America's expects the yen to slide to as weak as 155 against the US dollar in the first quarter of 2024 as Japanese policymakers insist on keeping their policy loose it will likely take a shift by peers at the Federal Reserve and the weaker dollar he said to finally stop the yen's slump so 155 is a good 500 pips to the upside how true that is I don't know but whatever that's accurate but I can see the case for it reason-wise because Japanese producer inflation slides below later CPI gauge and so in order for the Bank of Japan to really kind of adjust monetary policy inflation high inflation has to be sustained in terms of you know above their 2% target for a longer period of time and also has to be kind of rising now the Bank of Japan are more likely to sit on their hands if inflation measures are not supporting great hikes and so the pace of gains in Japan's producer prices decelerated more than expected in September falling below the latest consumer inflation reading for the first time since early 2021 supporting the central bank's view that important so import driven price pressures is moderating so the measure of input price for Japan firms rose 2% from a year earlier the slowest reading since March 2021 the Bank of Japan reported Thursday the data compared with the economy's expectation of 2.4% gain from the prior month prices felt 0.3% versus the consensus of a 0.1% gain and so the Bank of Japan are likely to sit on their hands because inflation really isn't an issue which therefore you can start to see why the top forecaster Mizuho is saying that in fact the yen could get weaker of course there is the Bank of Japan and the Ministry of Finance may still start to defend certain levels because they don't want the yen to get weaker or maybe they do in order to get inflation up but ultimately the yen is going to be a really tricky trade at the moment because nobody knows what the Bank of Japan may do at any time and they've been known to kind of shock the market so although we may get to 151s 152s you may get all of a sudden a massive move you know two 300-bit move in one you know in maybe a half an hour an hour period based on the Bank of Japan wanting to kind of defend certain levels so just I would say definitely be very cautious on on on selling the yen at these levels but also if I was looking to buy this I would really wait for a deeper pullbacks you know to the 148 maybe 147 somewhere around here to start to look for some potential buys on the dollar if you're looking to buy the dollar yen I think there are better dollar trades out there though but yeah we could see that start to come to fruition 155s wouldn't that be something so moving on to the dollar Swiss and the dollar Swiss this was a decent trade earlier in the week and again after this video immediately after this video I'll go over basically a level that I went trade that I ended up taking on the on the dollar Swiss which is a profitable trade and and yeah so but I did get out because I understood that the Swiss franc the dollar appreciating appreciating against the Swiss franc was less likely to happen because of the fact that because of the fact that the Swiss franc is also a risk of currency and so when you got to risk off currencies you know competing then the upside or downside potential is kind of limited you know you've got a fair fight so you know it's likely that the prices won't necessarily trend so got at the right time towards these highs and it was a nice nice nice trade but and that will be explained at the end of this video but going forward I do think that the Swiss franc at the moment might be one of the beneficiaries or is the beneficiary of a risk off environment so we could see prices come down a bit more into these zones before a bit of a buy or we could see prices start to move higher either way this really isn't a trade I would look to take anymore because of risk off it's a harder trade to kind of fundamentally to kind of distinguish between the two and so when there's more risk on or if there's as you know a ceasefire or you know more positive sentiment I think the dollar most definitely would be the buy against the Swiss franc but at the moment it's a very very tough trade to take but those are your options if you do want to get short then you're looking at in fact I would say this area here in order to look for a short trade that's supply zone right around these highs at the 0.918 areas the first area to look for any kind of short trades dollar CAD again in a risk off environment you would expect the dollar the US dollar to appreciate of course the Canadian dollar does have oil prices going in its favor but ultimately as a commodity currency you would think that the the dollar US dollar would be the one that appreciates the most again not really a pair that I'm interested in there is some demand here as well right there that you can possibly take advantage of if prices do come back down into that area there or if you're looking at a deeper pullback down into that zone right there you do have some horizontal support and resistance at the top of that zone as well a decent area to look for the potential for a bounce within that on the top end of that demand zone but again not really a pair that I'm personally interested in if you do want to get short then you're looking at a pullback into these uh highs and then looking for a set off and you know you're thinking that obviously the the the Canadian dollar is going to be a bit more expensive or appreciate against the the US dollar though how that's going to happen but anything can happen the New Zealand dollar so the New Zealand dollar um again prices came up to a really nice area of supply again you had confluence of horizontal support and resistance nice supply zone prices pulled back to that market high really nice set off so um this is also partly due to um New Zealand elections and so um we are now at the bottom end of this this area um I was reading that the elections don't necessarily or haven't historically had a major effect on um the New Zealand price I think what is going to affect the New Zealand price um is the uh is inflation now if inflation comes out higher than expected or at expected I do think that in fact the New Zealand dollar could be a buy but not necessarily against the US dollar and the risk off environment maybe against another currency but um the uh the New Zealand dollar I think is turning out there's an opportunity for it to be a buy but just not on this uh not on this pair I wouldn't buy the New Zealand dollar against the the US dollar but if you are looking to buy then you're down into a decent area of demand uh market lows which you know potentially is a is a bargain there is a bargain around this this uh this price zone here was a bargain again although um again depends on risk off sentiment and whether the market thinks that this would be a bargain I personally don't think so any pullbacks I think are short in opportunities so again we can move this supply zone really up to here so I think any pullbacks into those uh 60 cent areas I think are nice short in opportunities uh the pound dollar and again the pound dollar uh with the good news coming out uh we say good news but the um the higher inflation news coming out on the dollar we did see a move past the supply zone but then prices you know shot to the downside so um if this continues and the risk off environment continues any pullbacks up into that zone are decent but going to the uh the pound they did have some okay news but overall it's not looking positive for the for the UK it says UK stagnation fears persist despite late summer economic rebound so strikes abated during August boosting health and education figures leave question marks over third quarter as a whole so UK economic growth remained weak in August as a modest rebound from a strike affected July failed to ease concerns that output was output would shrink in the third quarter gross domestic product rose 0.2% following a revised 0.6% contraction in July the Office of National Statistics said Thursday economists had expected a growth of 0.2% so it came out as expected um and although the uh the UK economy uh in August was 2.1% bigger than before in Covid it says here that the figures reinforce a picture of an economy losing steam in the face of a sharp increase in borrowing costs the Bank of England held rates last month fueling speculation that the most um that the most aggressive hiking cycle since the late 1980s may have come to an end and so uh they're likely to hold the Bank of England the Fed could continue to to hike depending on inflation um and of course the Bank of England could also start to hike based on inflation again but um it looks like at the moment until that data does support that narrative the path of least resistance is to the downside so yeah I think any pullbacks into that supplies are a decent uh buy trades uh looking at the pound straight buy trades for the for the dollar uh sell trades for the uh for the pound of course you do have an area around here just quickly just to finish up the analysis uh there is an area of demand right here that you can get involved in if you feel that the uh there's a buying opportunity and you want to be a buyer of the pound maybe some positive news out of the uh the UK maybe some negative news out of uh out of the um the US right that's a decent area and if you're in that trade short you can always look to take profits somewhere around these lows or wouldn't say at the low somewhere around these low maybe 78% of the uh of the range or the auction pound yen so pound yen prices did come back down to this area here and um ended up bouncing off it uh the last uh couple of weeks now we do have a move back up into this area here and we've uh managed to set off uh from from uh from last week risk off sentiment now definitely coming into uh the market so I do believe that the path for these resistance is to the downside uh buying the yen uh on a risk off although uh the yen um fundamentally isn't the greatest but if you're buying um risk off sentiment I do think that the um that the uh um this should should be a sell but again it's a very difficult um trade I think at the moment to buy the yen there are definitely better uh risk off um trades um oh pairs to kind of look towards like for example like the pound swiss would be a would be a better trade I think um in terms of a risk off uh trade so a pound swiss short but if you do want to buy the uh the yen against the British pound I think the you know any pull backs up into these areas here are decent for a short trade from a buy trade perspective if uh risk on does come back into the market and you're looking at you know that area there and even maybe some of these lows around uh here would be decent let me just see if there's any confluence doesn't look like it no short term confluence but um there is an area of looks like an area of support in there in that wide zone of demand so those are really the two areas you would look towards buying the pound against the yen euro dollar so euro dollar this was a nice trade got in many to get any short up at these highs um based on the uh the news that came out with inflation so um yeah the uh the euro at the moment not looking great um Christine Lagarde does sound hawkish the uh the uh ECB president so the guard says ECB can act again as rate impact impact gauged so president speaks on panel at IMF meetings in Marrakesh uh comments are among the last from the guard before the decision so uh the european central bank Christine Lagarde said officials will raise interest rates again if they have to so that's very hawkish I think they jawboning jawboning is just trying to support the euro and trying to persuade the market that the euro isn't as weak as it actually is uh but they are gauging the impact of prior moves still feeding through so they they need to wait and see what the effect of the interest rate hikes are in uh on the economy right and so um we do have uh this as well from pound sterling live Germany to suffer double dip recession um and this is Deutsche Bank so Germany's largest bank says the domestic economy is set to suffer a double dip recession sparking a negative feedback loop which will wait on activity in 2024 ensuring the UK France and US and Italy will all grow faster so Deutsche Bank's double dip recession is likely uh with a hard and soft data pointing to a GDP contraction of about 0.3% in the third quarter why is that important uh because Germany is Europe's economic um engine basically the biggest economy in Europe and if uh Germany go into a recession then it kind of drags everybody else down in in Europe's um Europe's the eurozone economy down so uh you know it's it's it's all good Christine Lagarde um being uh quite hawkish but at the same time um it's it's very difficult for them to hike or continue to hike uh in a recession and if Germany or casino is going into a recession then they could make that recession worse and so um I do think that the euro is a continued sell it's definitely a continued sell against the US dollar at the moment unless obviously the data proves otherwise so I think any pullbacks into uh this this area here I think is going to be a really nice a short trade or um just a bit higher of course that'd be a really nice so into the 106 is 107s let's see what happens there um if you're looking to take profit then uh definitely looking at these areas around here lows of these areas I did actually take profit um already on this um this was due to a bit of a CPR zone um occurring right here so managed to actually pick these lows off these aren't riskable war time out of that trade at the moment um but if you are in this trade short you know definitely consider taking um some profit somewhere around these lows if you are continuing to um or at least partial profits and get yourself to a break even or profitable position then you can maybe a little bit run if you feel you know very confident that the um the uh the dollar will you know move past this 104 I personally think that it may not but if it does then brilliant then I'll just wait for a pullback to get involved in the uh in another short trade uh euro yen and euro yen again um this week risk off didn't really kick in until probably Thursday Friday so um as things escalate in um with Israel and Palestine and so we've come up to this area here and we've sold off so I do think um if you are playing the risk off um theme then I think any pullbacks or even a trade right now could push prices um to more further to the downside if uh risk off does escalate um even in the risk on environment it's difficult to buy the euro to be fair but uh I would think that for me price this should be the cap the 159 160 area should be the cap for this um for this pair um uh fundamentally I'm I'm I'm more buying I'm more my bias is more to buy the Japanese yen um over the euro um in a risk off environment and even in a risk on environment I think the uh the yen if we push past that um 150 area on the dollar yen then and we're up here then this could benefit from some sort of intervention short so uh there's that pound uh euro pound uh prices did come back down to this uh this demand zone bounce off it once bounce off it twice both um central banks again are really kind of on that hold uh data dependent it's difficult to see really the difference between the two um in terms of uh clear divergence so for me I'm staying out of this pair but if you do want to get involved in it I do think that um extreme highs and extreme lows are probably the best um areas to look for any kind of buy or sell trades extreme highs meaning anything a button to this uh supply zone here and extreme lows probably down into these uh this way down to that uh 50 maybe sorry 85 cent area on the extreme lows is this if you're looking at this as uh as a range or an auction as I typically do then um you know we're looking at premiums and discounts so uh the high end of this uh this auction is where the pound is seen as being a bargain right so it's a bargain here because you know there's a bargain here as price is pushed all the way down and you can see at the bottom end you can see that the euro was seen as a bargain right it's a bargain at this price bargain at this price bargain at this price so depending on you know which one you want to buy or sell the uh the the value really is up at these highs or down at these lows but uh again not really a pair that I'm interested in trading but you do have these demand zones that you can look to buy and supply zones that you can wish to sell if you can figure out which one is the uh the stronger now uh Aussie dollar again in a risk-off environment the US dollar should uh you know reign supreme and uh you can see what's happening here especially with China not performing as well the Australian dollar um has been a bit on the weak side so prices pull back to the supply zone and then pretty much sold off and so um I think again poverty resistance should continue to the downside you know so any pull backs up into that zone um or even further a better price to kind of short be above these areas here I think a fresher area of supply but um if you are looking for any kind of buy trades um I think now is probably the time well actually in fact maybe if you go further down into uh the range from around maybe the 61's you may might may start to look for a buy trade but if you're looking for a buy trade anywhere around there I think you'd have to have China data or Chinese data in terms of you know the economy and and looking to grow so um I wouldn't necessarily take this long unless I saw some data uh uh proving that the the Chinese economy is growing and then that should support the Australian dollar um Aussie yen uh there is obviously the risk-on risk-off dynamic in play so you've got an area of uh supply there and then you've got some demand I think all the way down here so from a supply demand perspective um again risk-on risk-off you're probably looking at some more risk-off so any pull backs I think to especially this area here where's my pencil right here I think any pull backs into this zone or into this area here I think are definitely short trades in order for this to kind of turn around you'd have to be very bullish on the uh from a risk sentiment perspective or um or just on the Australian dollar so um I think there's opportunities to buy or sell but um a very I think quite a tricky trade to be fair to look for um to look for any kind of um trades to the long or short side at the moment I think if you're looking for any trades I think you might be down into these extremes for a buy and up into these extremes for a short trade risk-off at the moment though should favour the um the Japanese yen over the Australian dollar though so any pull backs um are shorting opportunities and finally gold gold breaking through this level on Friday as again things have escalated intentions have gotten worse and gold gains as attack on Israel bolsters met all safe haven status a risk a virgin takes hold as markets brace for volatility gold options uh volatility course skew also climb on monday so um there we are it's um gold is uh seen now as uh safe haven and so again I always say this there's no supply or demand zone there's no technical analysis that's going to work in the face of uh fundamentals and risk sentiment as fundamentals and sentiment is really what is driving price and so um you know you can uh trade whatever technical strategy you want but if you're not aware what's going on behind the scenes you're going to constantly make you know the wrong decisions so I think in a risk-off environment gold should be the buy don't know whether prices will pull back to any of these levels but um if it does I think and risk is continued to stay off then that's going to be quite nice if you are shorting the um the dollar I'm sorry the uh the gold for whatever reason I mean there are going to be opportunities to short gold of course because on monday we could have de-escalation intentions right and so you know risk on could come back into the market and then you could get a a short trade now we did have a bit of a discussion um in the uh in the group in terms of gold and the dollar going higher right and um typically we do see um gold and the dollar work inversely but there are periods of time and this is what you have to be aware of and um you know things aren't always set in stone and this is where I think a lot of traders trick themselves up when it comes to things like fundamental analysis is that yes things are correlated but you have to be aware when they're not correlated so for example the reason why gold is up we know is that there's a risk sentiment is off right and so you know money typically flows into a safe haven current um safe haven assets right and gold and silver being one of them right but but there's also investors the investors are not necessarily always going to say well I'm going to buy gold and then um not buy dollars dollar the the US dollar is also a safe haven consider the safe haven currency but it also safe haven currency that pays a yield and so is treasury bonds as well so um US treasury bonds are paying a yield and so um some investors will say they'll put their money into gold which drives demand and some investors will say well they want to put their prefer to put their money into the US dollar which not only is a safe haven um currency um it also returns a yield but either way both can rise at the same time it's not one has to rise so i'm going to short the other so if you're if you're a trader of gold you know um you have to look at these things and you can't always say all right well um gold should be going uh the US dollar should be going down now because gold has gone up so much no it doesn't work like that it's all about um understanding the correlations um and and how investors think about these things so there are periods of time where gold and the dollar will um both go uh both likely to go higher and this is um one of those um uh this is one of those situations where you can see both going higher i'm not saying that they are both going to go higher i'm just saying that um if you thought that the dollar should go down because you saw this large uh bullish candle it's not always the case anyways um that brings us to the end of the video i hope you enjoyed it and found it useful um thanks for your comments as well and after this video you'll see a breakdown of a trade that i took on the dollar switch hope you have a great week and speak to you hi everyone i just thought i would go over a trade setup and um i just kind of noticed this as i was looking for uh dollar buys potentially today of course nobody knows we've got uh cpi data out today say inflation uh year on year core inflation as well everything is you know kind of expected to actually come down so um what does that mean i think that if it comes out as expected um then the market is really kind of priced at end so i don't really expect prices to really kind of move you know you know too far to the downside in terms of um you know a much weaker dollar because the numbers are actually you know already known in a sense um but of course anything can happen and you know it can you know prices can move to the downside right but i think if the if the data comes out and it is you know maybe you know some of these are maybe slightly better than expected um a bit more stickier for example then um you know the dollar i think can be uh supported now from a technical analysis perspective we have a cpr it's a bit of a unusual one or i would say unusual but it's a rarer one where we have on the 21st of set sorry september we had um the uh the swiss national bank come out and basically hold rates right they held rates and then you had a and it was they were expected to hike right so the market kind of went to the upside and it would have caught traders going short at this area why because if we zoom out a little bit more this level i think here would have been this area would have been a level that traders probably would have been looking for short trades uh and the catalyst would have been something like the um let me just do that let me turn off this magnet um so it would have been something like this right and it would have been around that area there where price where traders would have been looking at price level level and then you know a move up to that zone there and it starts to set off before the news that would have been a nice area to look for some short trades in anticipation of a rate hike but they they held rates right so it's traders that would have been caught going short in this price action but then obviously it goes the other way so now as prices start to come back um you know through supply and demand equation in terms of in the traders where it's short here then they're going to have to basically go long um and to exit their trade there's a buy order they have to um press in order to exit their trade they could have been exiting around here as well anywhere around these areas um it adds to the demand equation in and around here there's new traders potentially getting long at a level of support and resistance which has got resistance resistance you know support there support it looks like it's bouncing off there um and you've got traders taking profit right at areas so if they got short anywhere around these areas then they're looking to take profit at an area where there would have been strong demand or at least a big bounce from that area right so from a technical analysis view I like it the um the final really key to the puzzle is going to be today's news which is going to be CPI and so CPI um uh will determine whether the dollar does um either you know move to the upside or you know maybe even move sideways or or continue going lower um so what do you do right now so you can look for an entry candle at the moment I don't see one not on that one hour nothing on the two hour yet there's nothing yet as of yet um on on any of the timeframes that I'm looking at in terms of an entry candle so I'm just waiting just waiting and then um if there is an entry candle before the news then I might take a small position um in anticipation of there being decent news or supportive news news for the dollar of course I have no idea it could be a losing trade I've you know uh accepted the risk um but if it's obviously um if it's supported for the dollar then this is going to be a really good trade a very good entry and we should see at least a decent upside potential um in terms of you know risk or war but the first thing I have to see is an entry um on um you know some of the timeframes that I'm looking at these timeframes up top and if that doesn't happen beforehand then of course uh we'll have to wait for an entry after the fact and that will give us a uh uh uh I wouldn't I wouldn't say a worse entry if I use the word worse but uh more of an expensive entry if it's supportive of course um of of the uh the data but um hopefully it should continue to the upside also as well this this area here and if you zoom out on the daily we've got some um a decent area of that has been traded from a support and resistance perspective so daily resistance they're turning into some daily the potential for daily support in this area as well so we've got an intraday cpr daily support we've got some uh demand zones just below it so I think the dollar has had one two three four five six seven um uh bearish days or you know uh lower closes um typically when you get into the realm of like seven eight nine closes uh various closes you shouldn't at least get some sort of positive uh move kind of just from a candlestick count perspective and um yeah let's see what happens right nobody knows but the setup is there the setups are there the level's there is is is this potentially you know a decent area to look for uh some long trades and buy the dollar I think so there's enough there's no reason really to buy the Swiss other than it really acting as a a level of um support uh sorry uh a uh a risk off currency so I mean I haven't really seen too much risk off in in terms of um how it's playing out in the forex market um from the um Israel and Palestine conflict hasn't really played itself out too much so um all been evident in the market also as well we're at the 90 uh cent round number as well so in and around these round numbers is is is key as well can be can be key so uh the only reason why you buy the Swiss franc is because of risk off but even then if you're buying even even if you're buying the Swiss franc um you would really want to buy on a pullback right if you really believe in risk off and you want to be short on the dollar you wouldn't necessarily be selling um in the round here so I think um technically all signs point to um a potential buy on the dollar but that's going you know the CPI is going to be key and obviously an entry as well is going to be key to this trade all right guys take care and speak to you all soon