 Good day fellow investors. Today I want to discuss my investment strategy for 2018 and I will give you a 100% accurate prediction of what will happen in stock markets in 2018. This is something you won't find anywhere else. So let's immediately start with that. So my prediction is that I have absolutely no idea what will happen and stock markets will be fluctuating. So the stock market will be fluctuating. That's a guarantee. Nobody knows if it will go up, down, sideways or whatever. Therefore the best strategy is to be prepared for everything. Even the best investors are more wrong than right. Kyle Bass, famous for shorting the US housing market in 2008 when he made 226% in a year, has been short the Chinese yuan for the last year and has been long Greek banks for the bigger part of 2017. The yuan strengthened 5% in relation to the dollar while Greek banks are still significantly below their 2017 summer highs when he started promoting the investment. Similarly Ray Dalio has bet more than 1 billion to short Italian banks. The largest Italian bank is close to 2017 highs and 40% higher than March lows. Now you might think how is that possible that Kyle Bass, Ray Dalio make such investment errors. Because they know investing is not about being right. Investing is about making money and you can even make money by being wrong most of the time. Because what they do if Ray Dalio is wrong with Italian banks he will lose 1 billion. If he's right he will make 10. Similarly, Kyle Bass also if he's right on Greek banks he will make 5-10 times his money and he's well diversified. If he's right on China he will make also 5 times his money. If he's wrong he will just lose what he invested with various options, with various contracts and so on. They won't get wiped out if they are wrong and this allows them to be wrong many times. If they're right once they make their money a lot of times over which gives them a great return over the long term. Therefore again if you are prepared for everything with positive asymmetric risk-reward ratios then your long-term return will be great. If you're just exposed let's say to the SAP 500 and it drops 70% like there is the possibility because nobody knows what will happen you will lose a lot of money. If you're hedged if you're diversified in an all-weather portfolio which is my strategy for 2018 you will do good. However if we look at the market most are long equities because that's what worked well in the last seven eight years and now everybody's doing it. If we look at the long short exposure even the most pessimistic hedge funds are now long have been turning long. The K-Pratio is double its historical average approaching 32.5 points it will get a little bit lower when we eliminate 2008-2009 from the equation but it is still extremely high and that will be a distorted cape because there will be no recession in it. So there are four scenarios that can happen all continues as is stock markets go up emerging markets go up everything is perfect second scenario we see economic growth with higher inflation commodities do well companies that see their interest rates higher their costs higher won't do that well which can then in the next year or later lead to the third scenario which is an economic slowdown which is a recession a lot of the stocks that are now inflated will pop will go down will crash and that's a scenario that you have to be prepared for it will cost you some money if scenario one evolves but preparation is essential hedges gold stocks treasuries cash is needed to weather that storm and to take advantage of what can happen whether it will happen I really don't know and then we have a fourth scenario something that we haven't seen for a long time but it's called stagflation let's say central banks intervene print much more money but the economic growth doesn't happen as it has been the case for the last eight years and we see a lot of inflation in such an environment stagflation gold investments and hedges will do great I will discuss each of my strategies for each of the scenarios in a special video so please subscribe because it is important to see how to allocate portfolio allocations to gold miners to commodities to developed markets to emerging markets to cash to treasuries to hedges even so we'll be discussing that in the next few videos and I'm happy to share what I know with you thank you for watching looking forward to your comments to your strategy for 2018 and I'll see you in the next video