 Okay, very good morning to you. It's Thursday 20th of May and Yesterday actually ventured into the city for the first time in quite a while to go to the office had a few meetings and so on and Inevitable fashion whenever I seem to kind of leave the desk Something interesting happens in markets and certainly that was crypto yesterday And as you can see here Elon Musk With his diamond hands holding through the crypto noise yesterday, and yeah, just really interesting Moves yesterday, and certainly I'll give a brief take of what my view on this is because Obviously when you see a move in markets when you see some of these crypto currencies, you know The the Bitcoin price shedding Half a trillion dollars and dumping 30 percent recovering 30 percent ether dropping even more So are the cryptos getting hit you had coin base Binance or encountering issues which they have done before in excess periods of volatility Yeah, I'm sure there's a lot of new market entrants who Highly leveraged who got hurt yesterday, but you know beyond a lot of that noise. I do think that Ultimately for broader markets, it doesn't mean a great deal. I don't think at least for right now And in fact for cryptocurrency, you know This isn't the bubble Popping I don't think now. This is the beginning of the end, you know for for the recent gains that we've had We'll have a look at the charts now on Bitcoin and such but you know overall I think this is this is the normality of What these particular products trade like and you know if we go back I was sharing on my my Twitter account throughout the week kind of previous instances when we have seen these types of moves and As I was discussing the briefing here yesterday, you know, we the we the settler here around 30% type sell-off Or we dump even further and aggressively so so overall Doesn't surprise me that you know Elon's Tweeting out his his diamond hands and I think it would take a lot for that not to be the case And you know, let's just have a look at Bitcoin this morning because did see a little bit of renewed overnight selling in the Asia Pact session I've got this chart marked up which I've just got running at the moment Which is a couple of the Musk tweets and the subsequent market impact that we've had and they particularly the U-turn on the Bitcoin payments then we've had Michael Burry obviously disguising his short with Tesla and so on such as Matt this over as well Just timing wise so we can see it but from a technical perspective here on the rebound I mean this was Some of the volatility that we had yesterday when it really started to pick up as we went into North American hours And we dumped and pretty much got to 30,000 so on the daily chart Again, just ignoring some of these markups for a for a moment This is what we were kind of looking at yesterday was around that area of Now if we were to break down 340k it could get aggressive very quick And certainly that that did materialize and kind of bounced around that low that we were looking at at about 30,000 so psychologically and also the low on the daily on the 29th and you got the 200 DMA that quite a few people are looking at But obviously a huge reversal on the back of that initial dumping price that we had We're kind of settling around the 40k here In the Bitcoin future on that on the daily continuation chart, but yeah more near-term on the 30 minute I was just looking at It's kind of some of the sideways consolidation that we were in in the Early in the week in the first half of the week kind of respecting a band of price between 42 and 45,700 or so We had obviously a bit of a breakdown as we went through yesterday's Asia pack session And then the volatility ensued and obviously got down the cost at 30,000 But on some of the rebounds here just keeping an eye on how the markets reacting here at around Particularly this market here because that is basically the 40k in the in the futures price at least And that coinciding with the respective trend line short term of the last 24 hours price action Or so did have a bit of weight come in as Asia and I think that's to be To be appreciated in respect to Asia participants just reacting to what happened given the time zone differential But then you know the dust kind of settling we've rebounded back up. So Do I think we'll see a repeat today of what we had yesterday to the same magnitude? If I was going to be pushed I'd say no But I guess you can't rule any of this out, you know, certainly Downside levels to watch now are going to be any assault and further and what's obviously technically relevant would be a close below the 200 DMA Okay, as I said yesterday as far as away as that may seem about 10,000 off the current price Obviously we saw yesterday that you know markets quickly get down with these types of product crypto products down to those levels You know, all I'd say is to any new I know that obviously there's a large portion of demographic that's being drawn into trading these types of products because of this the Attraction of the the speed of returns that could be accumulated in likes of dogecoin and others But you know, this is the reality of the products that you are trading. So, you know, just as a word of advice particularly because I know we have You know a very significant student following and I know students are hugely active in that space And I hope yesterday kind of just was it was a reminder of what you're dealing with So in terms of leverage of things like that, you know, just be sensible with what you're doing But I'm not going to sit here and sound like your dad. So I'll leave it at that Otherwise one of the other major things from yesterday because otherwise it's been pretty quiet Was the FMC minutes and I was talking about you see yesterday wasn't really expecting a great deal But actually we did see a decent reaction if you actually look at the dollar index it popped up yields popped up and so consequently here you can see The US 10 year actually spiked down a little bit at the pond the release of the minutes So the minutes kind of dropped around here We have reversed, you know more than half of that move and the dollar is just just breaking out of a bit of a trend of tight consolidation for the overnight Asia pack session reversing a portion of that move But let me just explain to you what happened and why the dollar saw bit of a pickup with yields first and basically it was down to this point, which was that The federal reserve officials talked about tapering asset purchases the April minutes reflected dovish commitment But pressure to discuss changes soon And this is the obviously the big talking point is just given the way the economy is heading inflation expectations It's not a matter if but when does the Fed start to have the discussion about tapering as the pre-loop then to the actual tapering Producted itself if you like or the actual moment of policy tightening in itself and so going further forward from here then One of the things you've got to be mindful of is the dated nature of these minutes and that and then I think explains the second part Which is that of I really? Think that to me given the fact that the really bad jobs report that we had at the beginning of the month These conversations that was documented in these minutes predated those those jobs reports, and we've seen some other data points as well that have kind of rolled over a little bit in the US so I Personally don't put too much weight into this particular Reaction that we've had and to see a little bit of a dollar reversal of that move and also we've really really seen that to a large portion as they said in the year 10 Year in the yield move. I don't think it's anything to be spooked by quite personally So I think again the the market at the time I think was a little bit just knee-jerk reaction spooked by the fact that really expectations last night was for very little something materialized which is this kind of conversation that Some signaling that they'd be open at some point to discussion of scanning back their bomb purchases And that was enough to create that reaction But I think now you've had a chance to sleep on it the dust settles. I don't actually think it's big deal personally And yeah, so that's about it really from a news perspective. I mean overnight in Asia Nothing of great magnitude to comment on obviously there's lots of smaller news stories But there's some Aussie jobs data, but not really a market mover too much for the Aussie Basically in line five and a half percent against five spot six In terms of some of the charts to have a look at the commodity ones probably the most Appealing I'd say from a technical Perspective obviously crude oil here has had a pretty decent pullback after Threatening to break out at those multi-year highs. We've talked about a couple times this week and we did Continue that push down. Yes, they were forcing a bit of a bounce back here to around 6375 at the moment on the daily chart though. This is what I was looking at So we'll see if I just tighten this a little bit. So that's that level We were looking at on the multiple tests that we've had from 2019 What restricted to price action so far this year year-to-date? Whether or not we could break above that, but actually it's the trend line here on the on the bounce that's held so far and This dates back to pretty much the year-to-date price action So we broke out up higher through the commencement of the year basically the first week of trade had a bit of a period of consolidation And then we've just we've kind of respected them starting from here in early Feb March and then this is that recent route that we've had this week and where we stabilize now So that's a that's a trend line that I definitely be keeping on and keeping on at the moment Again despite the pullback. I still feel more favorable that as this price starts to get squeezed in all things remaining equal The the upside breakout is more more higher potential At the moment for for reasons we've discussed many times before But obviously we'll continue to track the situation things can change. There's obviously lots of dialogue going on With Iran at the moment. There's the COVID situation to keep an eye on on the Indian variant Not just in the UK, but on the global perspective So few things to consider otherwise in the gold market We had some quite quite extreme volatility yesterday and They're just having a look What was happening during that set off? I mean, there's a lot of conversation yesterday about how much that crypto move Would create a kind of subsequent reaction to other asset classes people liquidation Liquidating their position holdings in order to cover their margins on crypto. I think look just Calm down a little bit here. You know, I don't think there's these major players in the market who are that Deep in the crypto space that are gonna have to start like pulling the plug on on more traditional asset trades cover those I think I think that's getting a little bit too excited about what was happening yesterday in my humble opinion And you know this idea about inflation Expectations which has kind of rattled the stock market. I mean to me that absolutely kills that argument then the crypto provides You with some type of inflation hedge, you know, obviously proving non-existent as what we've seen and that there's other much more driving forces like probably Elon Musk and Chinese regulators Prompting some of these more recent moves amongst many other variables, of course that are ongoing at the moment But yeah, just having a look at gold here Saw a bit of a break higher During yesterday early afternoon, and then it's kind of reversed course a pretty choppy price action You can see gold actually dumped To a certain degree about 15 20 bucks or so when the Fed came out So if it's that narrative of initial kind of hawkish surprise, but has reversed so To give me I guess greater authority in that belief that not only do I think that the Fed minutes are dated because they're missing a lot of the more Up to speed economic data, which hasn't held up to what would have validated the discussions back in late April But asset classes agree with that view because a lot of that moves already be reversed at this point in time Technically speaking Obviously that run higher failed to really close it on the daily above this key level of 1875 So still watching that really some see Thursday two more trading days of the week Whether we finish can we can we actually close a candle above here? Will be a bit of a test at the moment That's looking a bit of a struggle at the moment So perhaps we've seen the best of the kind of the push up here in gold for the time being but Again, I've been watching things like the dollar as well for some some cues and whether that could continue And whether we see a resumption of just general dollar weakness at this point in time Okay, Canada wires What have we got? UK data Excuse me. This is the the calendar from yesterday. So we switch over Here we go. So just going into today's session Very quiet in terms of UK European morning. It's really nothing going on or to speak of And so then into the US afternoon you've got initial jobless claims. It's better at 450 Further further improvements if anything from this the job situation from where we were last week at 473 So a positive trend still developing now on that front But the Filly Fed business index is expected to decline to about 43 50 spot to very wide range Just accommodating for some of the wide-scale volatility we see some of these data readings as we go through the reopening process And then that's pretty much it on that side of things otherwise speakers ECB's Lane and ECB's Christine Lagarde speak at 9 and 1 p.m. respectively London time However, no text is expected according to the ECB media office from either speaker Bank of England's Cunliffe at 10, but I'm not expecting a great deal from him either to be quite frank And then the only Fed member speaking today's Kaplan is a non-voting member But that's not until the over the overnight post-us close supply coming out Very chunky amount from Spain and France this morning You then also have a us 257 year and a two-year floating rate note announcement coming out this afternoon at 4 p.m And a tip absorption to 30 billion later on this evening But yeah, going to keep it short and sharp. That's that's pretty much it So overall same on the on the morning so far I haven't really talked too much about the the technicals on the equities Nothing really sticks out as too favorable at the moment. Don't really have any directional bias either at this point in time But overall, I guess my main points are Not to over interpret the crypto move yesterday for traditional assets And not to over interpret over interpret the FMC minutes, which in my Viewer are quite dated of nature And I think the already subsequent movement reaction after knee-jerk reaction being reversed in most of the relevant assets like dollar yields and gold Kind of play testament to that that kind of view Otherwise, yeah, if you haven't checked it out already, remember to check out amphilive.com there's absolutely Free access to this portal now. We've kind of opened it up There's obviously premium paid elements that you can access as well But we'd love to get if you're watching this in the youtube you into our private chat room Which I said is free to access there's a couple of cool things you can have a look at as well So otherwise wish you a good day ahead and we'll catch you tomorrow. Thanks guys