 Hello and we're glad to know you're still there and watching the run-up. The first edition of this year 2023, I'll still get used to calling 2023. It's like I'm stuck in 2022. But in 2023, we're going to take a look at some of the things that shaped the political landscape of that year and ultimately is going to end in this year because this is the year of election. February and March will be the times for election of our representatives, people who will now take the helm of affairs and pilot this ship called Nigeria or this plane called Nigeria to expected end, we hope. So we'll be discussing some of these things and with us to discuss this is Dr. Moshallah Deji. He is joining us now to talk on some of these issues. Hello, Dr. Deji, welcome to the program. Good morning, thanks for having me. Yes, in 2022 a lot of activities really happened. We had the Electoral Act, we had the Milokon, we had so many other things. Let's begin with the Electoral Act and how you think it shaped the political landscape or it is going to shape the political landscape from now on to the election proper in February and March? Well, the Electoral Act is going to shape the political landscape remarkably, especially with the introduction of the Biva system by the Electoral Empire. The 2023 election is going to be different. Mostly, most likely it will be more credible, reliable because of the introduction of technology. We all know that technology makes things easier. Technology increase the credibility of election and we hope that INEC will be able to follow it through. And the President himself has shown commitment by signing the bill into law for the introduction of the electronic system. Unlike before the 2019 election where the President was elected to sign, apparently because he is participating in the election and he felt that the introduction of such technology would be to his own disadvantage. So the introduction of the Biva system as put forward by the New Zealand Electoral Act is a remarkable progress for the Nigerian populace in terms of electoral credibility. And I think introduction of such technology has increased citizens' interest in the participation of the election. We see that more people have turned out to register and now they are collecting their PBC, the youth are eager. And that's what we've always said that when the process is credible, there will be less political party. So the Electoral Act is a step in the right direction and it is a remarkable significant progress for our electoral system come 2023 presidential and gubernatorial and legislative elections. Yes, the Bivas has had a demonstration sort of in the AKT and Oshun elections. How would you rate the level of success of these Bivas? The level of success of the Bivas to me has been very significant because it has helped electoral practice. We have a situation in this country before now whereby a lot of aprecadabra are caused while they are transporting the results from the police unit to the police center. And I think that is not right in these days of technology. If I can be where I am, I'm speaking to you directly in the studio now. Why can't we use that also for our electoral process? So I think that the Bivas system, especially because if you are able to transmit the results instantly and it's uploaded to the INEC portal as increased the electoral proposal, you will see that in particular, I can't recognize Oshun or AKT whereby a particular polling officer was allegedly trying to manipulate the reporter by refusing to upload the results on the INEC portal alleging that there's no internet. The citizens themselves said, no, we have internet. We will give you. You must upload it. So the introduction of the system has remarkably helped to reduce the magic that we used to have, the manipulation of figures that we used to have. And it helps for the citizens and even the political parties and the candidates to know the results real time. So the transparency that the Bivas system has introduced into the system, our electoral process is one thing that Nigerians must be glad about because when politicians know that if the electoral system is transparent and if you don't perform, if you don't meet up, if people don't want you, there is likely that you will lose the election. It will in turn increase performance in governance unlike the system we've had before whereby when politicians win elections, they believe that they are just there for their own interests and that of their family. So the Bivas system to me has really helped remarkably for the Osho and Ekiti and also a number of elections. And I believe that going forward, it should be encouraged and for the 2023 election, if we truly want credibility, then we should have the Bivas system. The argument about internet and in some areas of the country, I believe that the argument is baseless because the Bivas system should be done in such a way that even if it is with 3G or 2G network, you can still be able to upload the result on the system. And I never said that just like our text messages, if you send a WhatsApp message and there's no network on your phone at that point in time, whenever there is network, the message automatically delivers. So the Bivas system has been made to operate in such ways that even if there's no network, it will later deliver. And I believe that that is what we need right now, especially in our political system whereby politicians can go to any length to make sure that they support themselves on the Nigerian people. We're looking at political issues that shaped 2022. And we cannot do that without mentioning the speech that was given by the present presidential candidates of the All Progressives Congress, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, when he came out and declared during a campaign event that it is his turn to become the president of Nigeria. And he went ahead to, when there was a bit of back and forth about his speech, he went ahead to remind the present president, Mohammad Buhari, about his past electoral defeats before 2015. Even the Stribulet, as we used to see on Twitter, hit a lot of people, including Governor Abiodu and Vice President Yemio Shibangio. And even the Yoruba words that he used during that speech kind of finally became a campaign slogan. And people at the time, the conversations surrounding that speech was that he was going to mar his presidential aspiration at the time. But as it is, he has gone ahead to become the candidate running for the APC. Do you think that the effects of that speech are still in the bags and would come forth just before the elections? Or how do you see that? Well, it depends on how Nigerians take the speech of the APC presidential candidate at that point in time. Some Nigerians will see it as it's right. Some will think that maybe he's speaking the truth anyway, that he actually helped these people that he has named. And it is of public knowledge that he was quite very influential as a political striker of the APC at that time to ensure victory for his party. Now, I haven't said that. Some Nigerians will also think that the statement is a narrow-gant statement that you don't play God. You don't see yourself as the god of a democratic system, even if you have no form of influence on the other. And coming out in public to make such a statement, it is least expected of somebody of his caliber, especially at an election period. An election period is when politicians are most humble. An election period is when politicians are most respectful. But sadly, that has not been the attitude of the APC presidential candidate. What we've seen, like his arrogance, his attributing victory on himself is the personalization of political power. And I think that is not right. This is the same person that we said that the mentioning of the presidential candidate of the Labour Party, Peter Albee, it is an insult to him. This is the same person that we say, the mentioning of the PDP, Deputy Governorship Candidate in Lagos, the main mentioning of her name, it is an insult to him. The question is, who are you? Are you God? You don't play God, especially when you are going to meet people to vote for you. The same people that you are playing God to, attributing the Alpha and Omega status to yourself. And at the end of the day, you expect the people to vote for you. So I think the ignorance would disown based on how they take the statement. But as for the presidency, I think that in the mind of President Mahmoud Ubarri, I don't think the statement would go down well with him. And we can see the manifestation of that during the APC primary. One would not really think that the president would support Ashwani Bola-Mehtingwu based on the support that Ashwani gave to him for his emergence in 2019 and in 2015. But the president stayed away and let the process evolve. Luckily for Ashwani, he was able to emerge. But Yobas will say that the child abused the Iroko tree and he looks back. He has forgotten that the Iroko tree is not going to act immediately. If you permit to say that in Yoba, he says, if the president is going to act, he has all the power, he is the commander-in-chief of the opposite and he has nothing to lose. So if the arrogance continues, he is sending a message to the political, especially the non-political oligarchs of how his presidency is going to be. What I put yesterday, when former president of Lushak Obash Ojo who has the right to support whoever he wants based on his own assessment of the candidate, but what did the spokesperson of the APC presidential candidate say? He regarded President Obash Ojo's support as worthless. You can't be saying that. It doesn't cost you anything to say, so we thank you with respect to Opino or Nigerians who want to decide. So the arrogance in the camp of the APC presidential candidate himself is not helping matters at all. So let for me, I think the arrogance is one too many, it is getting too much and it needs to turn down the way he speaks, the way he approaches things, and portion is eight, which is very, very important. Caution is eight to take things easy. You have to be humble. Nigerians have to see you as being humble, because if you are arrogant before you become a president, Nigerian presidents have so much power. Now, if you now become president and you have the presidential powers to do and undo at your back and call, then what will you now be doing at that point in time? So far, he has been sending a long signal of arrogance, of the call of Nigerian politics, and I think that is not right for his presidential ambition. Okay, I know Bayo is standing by to ask you some other questions, but before we go to Bayo now, I'm just trying to pick your mind now. Before now, I know that Labour Party has produced like a governor, and we've heard their name somewhere, somewhere, as it is. But now, the prominence with which Labour Party has come into the political scene now for 2023 is because of the cross-capeting, if you permit me to say that, of one of the PDP hopefuls then, Peter Obey, into the fold of the Labour Party. And now, another thing emerged, another movement emerged that they call the Obedient Movement. Even at that, we also have the Kwan-Kwan-Sia op-not and a few other people who are trying to make impact, but basically there are like three major political parties now, or not even political parties, two, three major contenders for the position of the presidency. Do you see this third force, as people are calling it, coming to really tip the balance of these 2023 elections? And what gives you that hope? Well, the third force may, may not have the trophy at the end of the day, but one thing that has been clear is the flaws of the two prominent parties are people Peter Obey is tired of, that he is enjoying now. And if you look at it, in the mind of right-thinking Nigerians, I believe that majority of Nigerians think that it is wrong. For a country with over 250 ethnic groups, the full and the ethnic stock are about eight years, then you don't want to bring in another full and the mad at a time when the session is straight in the country, at a time when even the man at the hem of our first president, as performed woefully. So you're not bringing another full and the mad. What is he going to kind of like campaign if the president were to perform remarkably? Maybe Nigerians will think that it is in the ethnic chain of the full and the, to kind of like perform remarkably when they are in power. But that has not been the case if we are to access the body as minister. Hello, Deji. I think there's been an interruption. Yeah, well, as soon as Deji is back, we're going to bring him back to continue what he was saying. In the meantime, I'm sure, Bayo, you're just waiting to bombard him with some more questions. Even though whatever question you ask him is not like he's at the hem of affairs that you will tell him what he is. Yes. Hello? Yes. Okay. As I was saying, the flaw in the APC ticket as well has really helped Pitao be. Maybe if both parties, the APC and PDP had presented a candidate without any permission or flaws, I think Pitao would not be enjoying the stardom that he is enjoying. Because if we look at the APC ticket, the Muslim-Muslim ticket, it is absolutely a bad woman for the future of the Nigerian state. And the APC presidential candidate himself has not helped himself so remarkably because of the baggage that he carries. This is a candidate that Nigerians can't really say what is your true name, what is your true background, what is the true source of your wealth, what is the status of your health. These are things that have been hidden in somewhat mystery or the other. And that is where I salute President, former President of Lusia, he has shown that he is not an ethnic man by assessing the candidate. And I think President Obama in fairness to him is right. If you as an elder state man could come out and say you want to support a candidate whereby so many things are shrouded in secrecy, I think that would decrease the respect that former President Obama although has both in Nigeria and outside the country itself. So I think it is a good day for Peter to be born. The likelihood of his emergence is still somewhat slim based on the issue of structure, based on the issue of his penetration to the not. And when I say the not, when I say that with strong interest, I have not seen Peter will be do much to win the heart of the not an oil polo, the talacahuas of the not. Who we all know have a strong hosting power. So I think that Peter will be despite his bright stances if he really wants to clinch the presidency of Nigeria. He has to go north. His approach has to be much of south. He has to go north. Like the right now, he has to begin to penetrate the not an population and vote. And I think if he is able to achieve that, his chances will become brighter. Okay, let's go to Bayo now. Bayo is standing by. Bayo, over to you now. Thank you very much, thank you so much for that for your incisive analysis. I will start with the last point. You said that Peter will be wishes to the president of Nigeria. He has to go north. There are those who believe that the key to Peter will be winning. And you have, of course, juxtaposed that relative to that of Anshi Wachu and the former vice president but some people believe that Peter will need to get the middle belt and get the northeast. Do you believe, first of all, that that is a right strategy and secondly, do you think that the Labor Party has the resources to marshal such an endeavor on the side of Peter will be? Well, if I can answer your question, your point is very logical and that's why you see that in my submission, I didn't give Peter will be a past man but I didn't say, oh yes, he's going to get the trophy. As a political scientist I'm saying that Peter will be as a lot of work to do in terms of the structure and I've said it on other platforms before that, there are some people that will even wish to vote for Peter will be and it will be difficult for them to locate the logo of the Labor Party in terms of making the Labor Party an household name everybody knows the logo of PDP and APC I don't think that is occurring on the part of the Labor Party then we not, it's very important and I can break it down into two now, Peter will be an emergent largely relies on the North, then by the North I mean the North Central the North East and the the North West in the sense that if you go back to the Ezio Buklu of the 1960s that has brought some kind of a good suspicion between the South East and the Northern Oligarchs as that suspicion being erased by the emergence of Peter will be how do they see a Peter will be presidency do they see Peter will be a someone that can carry them along or won't come back for when they are based on the alleged injustice that has been meted out by Northern politicians and military men who have had the opportunity to occupy power over the decade that question to me I think has been left largely unanswered but if we are to trace it back by by how many support Peter will be as gotten from the Northern Oligarchs who will say that it is pure and that to me means that that ethnic suspicion that was erased when the Northern Oligarchs supported former president to clinch the presidential seat of Nigeria in 1999 we do not have that now for Peter will be and these Northern Oligarchs whether we like it or not and good followership I served in Kano during my NYC years back and one of the things that I realized is that they not still have this system this like command and control system whereby one rich man that is seen as the demigod that everybody are shouting Ranka did it for can say okay go this way and before you know it the talakawas the alimajiris you just go that way they not still have a system whereby when the respected religious clerics speaks and say oh go this way you find them going that way so the Northern Oligarchs how Peter will be has been able to mingle with them to gain their trust will largely impact on whether he wins the presidential seat or not that said is penetration to the the talakawas themselves just like it will be difficult when Buhari was contested in 2015 for a Northern Oligarch to tell the talakawas that don't vote Buhari because Buhari has made himself like the masses champion at that point in time so if Peter will be is not going to mingle with the Northern Oligarch which I think he needs to then he has to make him he has to sell himself to the Northern grassroots so that he can present himself as the candidate that they need but right now those two issues I think are a major thing that Peter will be needs to work on one is penetration of the Northern Oligarch to the acceptability by the Northern masses okay just a quick follow-up if you can allows me you mentioned in response to your question about the substantial impact of the beavers in the next elections and I believe your analysis was bottom but something that is allied to that could also be the number of registered voters in each of the geopolitical zones of the country and I saw it data if that data is correct it was a data about the number of people who have not yet collected their pvc's now in the North that number is in the few thousands it is over 3 million who have not collected their pvc's in the South East it is over a million people who have not collected their pvc's how do you see this if these figures are correct how do you see this impacting the next elections well I see it impacting the election for the candidate from the regions you mentioned if by any chance the election goes the ethnic way because and one of the problem with the 2023 election is that we have major candidate from the three major ethnic groups of Nigeria we have the PDP from the Ustafu from the Ibo from the from the from the South West so if the ethnic passion that we have always had in our election to go then Ashwajuti Numbu will be losing a huge chunk of vote and Peter will be will be losing a huge vote as well so I think that the collection of the pvc should be based on public enlightenment when people begin to see the essence of voting when people begin to see that voting during an election is more like an oxygen in nose ring then they would take it serious they would go out to participate in the electoral process but at it is now with the failures that we have in governors with the way politicians go into political office and just go there to represent themselves and their family this is affecting political participation but if the trend continues the way it is it will definitely affect most likely Peter will be and the candidate of the apc Ashwajuti Bona Amit Numbu will be because now in terms of the major ethnic group is a move to your tent and that is why that analysts have been saying that the election might go into Iran because if you look at the past election for you to become president of Nigeria you need the support at least of the three major ethnic groups if you look at past elections carefully if you are contesting you must add maybe the support of the Yoruba and the Awusa Fulani or for example the emergence of president Muhammad Ubarri and if you look at the formation of his cabinet and team it is majorly the Awusa Fulani and the Yoruba so during former president we have vote from the Awusa Fulani and the Ibo vote from the southwest not so much as a straight from the southwest but the Nigerian political history you need the support of two over three to become president now the problem is where that support comes from because Atikua Buberka is on the ballot Peter B is on the ballot and Ashwa Dutinumu is on the ballot and these are three strong candidates whether anybody likes it or not so I think the solution is people that wants to go all out to educate voters to make sure to make them see the reason why they must collect their PVC most Nigerians sincerely are bothered about survivors the economy is so hard like people are just struggling to survive so and if we are to put the market of needs into the picture now people will first of all think of how to survive first people will first of all think of how to live their life especially when they are sure that government would not address any of their plight in systems where by the government is responsive you see increased political participation it comes naturally so I think people that want to govern Nigeria both at the local government state and the federal level has to now go on out to educate people to ensure that they collect their PVC and I think the APC and the Labour Party has a lot to do in this regard okay Dr. Deji it's been wonderful having you there's so many other things that we could have talked about in the course of this program but because we are out of time would like to just say thank you to you for being a part of our show this morning thank you for being on this Wednesday well that was Dr. Moshallah Deji a political analyst he's a political scientist rather and he spoke to us on some of the issues that shaped the political landscape of 2022 and ultimately we're getting to the election proper in February and in March we're hoping that you are making effort to collect your PVC right now until January 15 it's still very close to you at your polling unit so wherever you are try to get to your polling unit before it gets back to the local government headquarters where you have to go and queue after maybe a thousand people have reached there like five o'clock so just try to figure out the fire brigade approach and make sure you go collect your PVC at this time we'll just take a short break to enable us to bring you the news and after that we'll be discussing between us Uche, Bayo and I on the letter that was written to the youths by the former president Oleshe-Guang Basangio just stay with us