 Oops Okay, is that working now? Okay, I think we may have had a problem with the audio there ladies and gentlemen, so I'm gonna do that again Can hear now good. Okay, right. Can everyone else here now? Perfect. All right, let's Let's start that again. Shall we? Hello, welcome to CMC markets on Friday the 7th of August in this non farm payrolls webinar For July first and foremost have a quick risk warning Um For those of you who don't know me. My name is Michael Houston. I'm chief market analyst in the UK Been working in financial markets for the best part of 30 years either trading and I used to trade for an exchange Specifically currencies dolly in cable that sort of thing did did a small stint on the forward Aussie desk as well at Commonwealth Bank of Australia as well and My method of or my approach to markets is pretty much technical analysis. So Generally to every decision I make in terms of where markets are likely to go How where they're likely to trend and how they're likely to move is based very much on a technical based approach risk management is pretty much at the core of everything that I do when it comes to markets So without further ado Let's let's let's get cracking because I think one of the things about payrolls numbers is They generally tend to introduce an awful lot of short-term volatility, but they don't generally tend to move the market Substantially and one wire the other on a long-term basis and the key thing here I think is The expectations around this number are so varied and so wide The I don't think it really matters how good or bad the number actually is because the consensus The consensus estimates are anything from Minus six hundred thousand to plus five million Well against that sort of consensus You could argue that the data is already lagging this week. We saw the ADP payrolls report Coming out hundred and sixty seven thousand which was well below market expectations of one and a half million That being said there was an upward revision of two million To the June number which went up from two to four million So the problem we've got with the data at the moment is because of the nature of this once-in-a-lifetime pandemic It fluctuates so wildly that it doesn't really tell us an awful lot About where any economy and particularly the US economy is now we've seen a very big sell-off In February March, we saw twenty point seven million jobs lost in the April payrolls Since then we've added back around about seven and a half million. That's if you don't include The ADP payrolls report which generally can tend to track non-farms But sometimes doesn't particularly well for example the non-farm payrolls report for last month Came in at four point eight million Whereas the ADP payrolls report only came in at two the last the most recent adjustment to that Saw that adjusted up in line with the non-farm payrolls number, and that's the big problem. It's the collection and Collation of the data that's causing the problems And I think in that context That's why it's very very important that we look at the weekly jobless claims numbers because I think they tell us more Than anything else about what the US economy is doing and at the end of last week. We saw a big sell-off Towards the end of last week particularly when it came to European markets US markets have continued to move higher largely driven by the NASDAQ We can see that here in this market and when you're looking at a trend like that I will always insist to you It's very dangerous to try and pick the top never try and pick the top in an uptrend Whenever you're trying to trade a trend always buy the dips or buy weakness So look for entry points and the way I time entry points is quite simple It's basically by drawing a line through the lows like so and then looking for pullbacks towards that line and Getting those pullbacks Buying the dip placing the stop loss below the trend line itself Far enough away so that there are little pushes through but you actually don't get a breakthrough So it's basically about keeping those very those risk of your losses small While also riding the move higher That's ultimately all there is to it really if you think about it now with respect to the NASDAQ here There's an interesting chart here. There's an interesting set of two peaks here. I'm gonna draw a horizontal line across the top here I will get to the numbers in a minute. So don't worry. You're not going to miss anything Now I've drawn this horizontal line across the top Resistance resistance resistance We've broken higher. We've come back higher, but we've held above the previous high. So that Previous resistance has now become support and this happens an awful lot when you're trading Financial markets whether it be currencies whether it be gold whether it be Other commodities or indices or shares support and resistance can reverse their roles And once the resistance breaks it triggers stop losses When you get a retest it acts as support and then goes back up again And it's those sorts of opportunities that I try and look for When I'm trying to pick entry and exit points into markets as another example through here You got a pullback there a low a high come back and tested it. It's held and then it's gone higher again This is a daily chart. Okay, so obviously we're looking at that on a fairly longer term timeframe But the principles are broadly similar You're looking for areas of support or resistance time your entry and exit points into and out of the trade And that's essentially what I look for on any given market I wait for the market to come to a level that I'm comfortable trading rather than chasing the market to try and make a profit or a loss because Experiences taught me that you will make a loss on trades. That is a given You have to reconcile yourself with that right now Not every trade that you make will be profitable The key is that when you lose money you minimize those losses while at the same time when you do make money maximizing your profits and in that context, that's why your entry and exit points are very very important So that you keep your losses small, but you run your profits to a greater or lesser extent. So Let's look at the numbers because we've seen a Consolidated period of dollar weakness over the course of the last seven weeks And I think a large part of the reason for that dollar weakness has been concerned about the US economic recovery particularly last week when we saw that little modest jump higher in the claims numbers and Given that the US is the world's largest economy That did spook financial markets and we can see that in these two daily candles that we saw in the DAX Thursday Friday Big sell-off and then Monday a nice rebound Tuesday Wednesday Thursday. This is today So today over the course of the past week Trading has been fairly subdued good resistance at 12,800 Coinsides with those series of lows through there and there and the highs through here here and here So we know this week that 12,800 is a fairly decent resistance level for the DAX If we move up there, it stands to reason that we could see a little bit of selling interest Start to drift in to the market It's unlikely that people will take on new positions ahead of a weekend Simply because of any geopolitical announcements geopolitical risk President Trump deciding to be a little bit controversial with some new executive orders or what have you running a position over a weekend is Risky I used to do it 10 or 20 years ago. Unfortunately the risk reward now Is not really in my favor. So I prefer not to do it So certainly in that context here We also potentially got the beginnings of a potential head and shoulders as well because those peaks here And we haven't got back above those peaks here and we've got a little bit of a head there So a little bit of sideways consolidation at the moment. I think that will continue to be the case for equity markets more broadly I think we're in a sideways range. We've been in the sideways range for quite some time now volatility is also lower in the summer or Ranges tend to be lower in the summer as well. Most of Europe goes on holiday And as such you'll find that trading volumes can thin up as well. So When when trading volumes do tend to diminish a little bit you may find That so do the ranges as well. We're certainly seeing that with respect to the decks We look at the UK 100 of the footsie 100 as we know again It's a similar sort of thing big big topping in around 6,300. We did have a little flirt below 5,900 didn't really consolidate that move The footsie 100 is has underperformed significantly over the course of the past couple of weeks largely because of the Bank earnings and the large provisions that were set aside by UK banks for bad debts or non-performing loans They've not been unique in that if I'm honest European banks US banks. It's a similar sort of picture. So And I think that is the concern going forward as we look ahead towards August September and October. It's these concerns about Rebound in the labor market rising infection rates Basically hampering any economic rebound that we're likely to see in the third quarter of this year We've already seen Spain, Germany, Italy and France post eye-watering declines in GDP We're going to see the UK announces latest numbers next week So against that context, you know We need to look at the key levels of support and resistance based on that and at the moment We're at sort of the lower end of the recent range on the footsie as far as the dollar is concerned I think there's potential for a little bit of a rebound After the declines that we've seen over the course of the past week If we look at cable we can see here big big area of resistance all the way through 132 So it's going to take something Substantively weak to push cable through 132 Looking at this candle here or this candle formation here There does appear to be fairly decent demand anywhere near 130 as evidence by those very long shadows on these daily candles But the failure to go through 132 yesterday could see a little bit of dollar strength and sterling weakness in the wake of today's payrolls numbers It's a similar sort of story for euro dollar as well Running into a little bit of resistance above 119 We could see a move lower stronger dollar again euro weaker over the course of the past few days simply because we've declined seven weeks in a row in the dollar and It's unlikely that That will be sustained in the short to medium term Another part of dollar weakness has been the move in the gold price seeing a little bit of a pullback now Seeing a little bit of dollar strength today That could go that could well be maintained going into the weekend as well So I think the biggest risk at the moment is that you could get a bad number the dollar could weaken But then it could come and bounce back in the way of profit-taking looking at the numbers 1.65 million Overall, you know, it could come in higher than that come in lower than that The biggest problem I have with these numbers is they are subject to revision and this non-farm payrolls numbers only includes July up to the 14th of July So what it won't do is it won't include the numbers in the last two weeks of July Where you could where we've seen these lockdowns reintroduced across the Sunbelt states of the US namely Florida Arizona Texas and California, so a good number here while positive may mask the effects of layoffs in the latter part of July and let's not let's not also forget That at the end of July The unemployment enhanced payouts of $600 a week expired Which could prompt a spike in weekly jobless claims Next week after the really good numbers that we saw yesterday So this gives you an indication of how quickly the data can change in the space of a week Fiscal stimulus there is an expectation. We could see some Unfortunately, I don't think it's going to happen anytime soon President Trump has suggested an executive order. Well, that may happen that may not as far as I'm concerned I think what the market is looking for today is a strong number in the in the region of around two million That could prompt a little bit of dollar buying Could prompt euro dollar to potentially go back to around about one 1870 But I would be surprised if we see Further dollar weakness over and above what we've already seen this week Which brings me nicely onto doll again Seen a little bit of a rebound there before I forget. We've also got the Canadian jobs report Looking at dollar card here. We're approaching a very very key trend line support area around about The 130s but given what we've seen here the likelihood is we're probably going to wedge back edge back towards 134 In the event of a decent Canadian or a poor Canadian jobs report and the problem with having both job reports on the same day is That usually the dollar number the US dollar number will out well outweigh the Canadian dollar number So let's look at euro dollar on a very short-term basis chart and see what sort of price movements We get at the moment getting a little bit of dollar weakness heading into the numbers Let's see whether or not the actual numbers Continue that overall trend and get a retest of the highs at one 1850 So I'll now be quiet and wait for the numbers to break Okay decent pretty much in line revision 4.79 million Average earnings of an edge tire 4.8% not really interested in that Fairly decent to Canadian payrolls number unemployment rate in the US has dropped back to 10.2% So yeah, I mean broadly positive. You're seeing a big positive dollar move there and to retest the lows of around about 118 10 That could just be a counter move before a squeeze higher Normally the first move is the wrong move in my experience So getting a little bit of buying interest around about 118 118 10 on the euro dollar There's a there's a bit of a support level around about 117 80 as well So need to be aware of that. I just change that to an hourly chart So we can see that there And on the hourly chart you can see the picture looks fundamentally different So you can see here is a decent series of highs all the way through 119 We've gone for a little bit of a dip below 118 30 As I said, I think in terms of these numbers you may see a squeeze back to 118 50 but I would be minded to probably move a Little bit lower towards 117 and a half over the course of the next few hours course You know that could come back and bite me But at the end of the day my feeling is that by and large the unemployment rate is a fairly decent number and The markets are probably going to take that as a broadly positive in US dollar terms in terms of the actual markets themselves It's not really giving us too much of a steer one way or the other. Let me just quickly look at that Broadly market positive But then I think a bad number would have been broadly market positive The way these markets have been over the course of the past Past few years. Let's see what it's doing to gold. I would expect it to push the downward pressure on gold that number Going forward, let's just dig into the overall numbers the unemployment rates come down But the more important number is The underemployment rate which was 18% and that's dropped to 16 and a half percent. So on the face of it fairly decent number and The participation rates dropped also ever so slightly from 61.5 to 61.4 But certainly not enough To suggest that the drop in the underemployment rate has been as a result of people dropping out of the workforce It's actually been as a result of people returning to the workforce. So All in all those numbers a fairly dollar positive And I would suggest that you'll probably see a little bit of dollar strength as we head into the As we head into the end of the day But but overall Pretty nothing set in numbers pretty much in line with expectations Just been asked why do I feel that cable is so strong cables only strong against the the pound is only strong against the dollar If you actually look at the way that it's performed against other currencies You can actually see that it has Significantly underperformed and I can show you a good example of how to Identify that if we just do a quick comparison on a Bloomberg chart. So this is the pound over the course of the last five days Sterling performance against G10. So it's done very well against the Swiss Frank and Done very well and flat against the dollar, but it's performed poorly pretty much against everything else We know going through that over a month It's much more of a mixed bag, but you can see it's done very very well Against the dollar Not so but not so much against the euro in fact against the euro. It's fallen back So I think a large part of the sterling strength that you've seen over the course of the past month or so It's been largely down to the fact that the dollar has been so weak and the pound has been a key benefit beneficiary from that so Whenever people talk about sterling strength, it's always important to remember it's not just about Sterling against the dollar there are another as a host of other currencies that it Has underperformed against and the euro has been has been it has been a key one of them I think the perception there with respect to the euro is that there's been an awful lot of bearish sentiment around that and There is an expectation that European leaders may come to some form of unified position over the course of the Pandemic recovery program and whether or not you believe that it's credible or not It's neither here nor there the market seems to think that it is and that's why the euro has gone quite a bit higher Over the course of the past month or so. So that's the world currency ranker. So If we if we look at that As I say against Against the dollar now we can get a much better indication of how the dollar has performed Over the past month and as you can see The pound is sort of midway between all of them So the dollars lost ground against pretty as it against everything over the past one month We go for the last five days Similar sort of story apart from the Swiss franc and the British pound where it's actually done quite well so Always bear that in mind when you're looking at the pound sometimes it can just be a pure dollar story and To all intents and purposes it pretty much has been Any other questions ladies and gents, please feel free to fire them over that's what I'm here for Well Okay, well in the absence of any other questions, I'm going to basically go through some technical analysis in terms of Euro yen and other euro crosses One of the another reason why I think the euro is likely to be fairly Toppy has been the fact that euro yen is Looking as if it might be on the cusp of a significant reversal What we've got here and I've highlighted it with a green oval is the potential for a classic reversal pattern on candlesticks, so We look at candlestick pattern here. There's potential for a Potential evening star reversal, which is a combination of three candles What it does do though, it requires confirmation So if euro yen is going to break lower what we need to see over the course of the next two or three days is For the low on this candle here, which is indicated by 124 60 Which is in the top left hand corner here if you can see there's a counter in the top left hand corner So if I point the cursor at that We can see That the low is 124 60 So if we break below 124 60 that low There's a good chance that we could start to roll over and head down back towards 124 and 123 It's one of the one of the key arbiters of this move higher in euro yen has been obviously the euro dollar Rising sharply from the lows running into that 50% retracement there So there is a there is a chance that we could be a little bit toppy and if we're toppy on euro yen It stands to reason that we could be toppy on euro dollar as well So I'm keeping an eye on Euro dollar and euro yen in the context of a policy now that I have of looking to sell euro on Strength so any any any euro rally into 118 Well, I'm 1850 towards the previous highs looking to get short with a stop loss above 119 You know for a move back to around about 117 116 and a half Mail may not work, but at the end of the day It's that sort of risk management that you've got to think in terms of you're going to risk 52 100 points on the upside then you should be looking to make at least double that on the other side of the trade So not only think about your stop loss, but also think about you take profit as well Question why is the swissie so weak? Well, the Swiss Frank itself has actually been quite strong The dollar has been weak against the Swiss Frank. Is that what you mean or? Do you mean why is the swissie been so strong and the dollar been so weak against the swissie? Just want to clarify before I answer that question I'll come to the yet in the minute until I get a response and I come to the yeah, I'll do the end now um Folly ends been falling largely as a result of a little bit of risk off when we saw the big sell-off in equity markets yesterday generally the yen tends to act as a haven trade so We get by People buy yen when they sell equities in general. So if we look at the Nikkei 225 They generally tend to Track each other when dolly yen goes down the Nikkei goes down When dolly yen goes up the Nikkei generally tends to go up You get your Japanese yen tends to be your general safe haven trade in the same way that the Swiss Frank has been So let's look at the Swiss Frank over the course of the past 30 I mean generally if equity markets are going up the Swiss Frank the Swiss Frank tends to be weak It's a generally is your general risk off risk on So the Swiss Frank tends to act as a haven currency in the same way that the yen does So if you have weakness in equity markets, then generally the Swiss Frank is strong If equity markets are looking fairly well supported then the Swiss Frank will remain weak Does that help I mean that's your general risk on risk off explanation for Swiss strength yen strength Yen weakness gold and what have you they tend to be viewed as haven trades more than anything else The dollar is I mean the thing is dolly yen is one of those currencies It's very difficult to trade because it will trade sideways for an awful long time And then it'll explode very sharply to the upside or the downside, you know, we saw that here We've seen a very slow move lower We've seen a gradual move back And dolly yen is like watching paint dry. I know I should know I used to trade it What I would say is that if you get a move back to rules around about 106 20 If we look at this series of lows through here and there and the highs through there They there would appear to be fairly decent selling interest there. So on that basis We'll probably see a little bit of yen weakness dollar strength back towards these peaks here Before we start to turn lower again. I still think there's an awful lot of risk Which is not being priced into the market at the moment which the yen Could well benefit from and the dollar as a result could see a little bit of weakness So for the moment and we can see from the dollar yen here. It trades very very quietly For long periods of time, then you get these explosive moves up and down Pretty much a widow maker trade if you're the wrong side of it and it settles down and then it trades fairly quietly again The cloud the Chimoku cloud moves together Usually acts as resistance on a move back and then once it settles down again It'll then start to move higher or lower But at the moment while it's below this cloud Kumo cloud The likelihood is that we're probably going to see sell the rally on dolly yen Okay, what else have we got crude oil cash. I'm being asked about Crude oil has settled down quite a lot in recent weeks. I'm still of the opinion that we are on the cusp of a potential move higher We've got convergence between the two moving averages. The gap has been filled. You're absolutely right and The 200-day moving average is there I'm still of the opinion of selling the rally on Brent until such times as we break above and close above The 200-day moving average momentum is positive the 50-day is starting to move higher So you can look at the lows here And you can see that the lows are getting higher the highs are getting higher so From that point of view, I'm still very much a buy the dip in crude oil And That's nowhere to borne out by this candle here. We saw a very sharp move to the downside We didn't take out the July lows here We closed well up on the lows of the day Which suggests that the market is still betting the oil prices are likely to move lower And that suggests that it could get caught out on Any further squeezes higher 200-day moving average is a big deal, though I think if we're able to move above the 200-day moving average Then we could see a very quick move towards $50 at the moment I don't think the momentum is there to dictate that and ultimately I don't think the demand is There at the moment to dictate that so it really depends on what OPEC plus and OPEC do with respect to Potential production cuts whether or not they Continue them into the winter months And whether or not you get a big demand drop-off or whether demand picks up an awful lot of how oil reacts will depend on how strong a rebound that we get into the second half of the year and Whether or not we get a second wave of coronavirus cases as winter draws in in the northern hemisphere And that's the big risk I think for oil prices You don't want oil prices to break higher too quickly because you could kill demand anyway Particularly with the global economy remaining so weak But what OPEC don't want to do is to see oil prices back fall back below $40 a barrel either. So My view on the gold trade I'm still buying the dip on gold I think you have to I think while US yields remain as low as they are the argument Gold or not being in gold is very very weak People have always said and I and I posted an article on it earlier this week And you can find it on the CMC markets website in the news and analysis section under insights gold precious metal search The main premise or the main criticism that people have said about owning gold is that it has no yield And it has no cash flow Well, you could be describing an awful lot of government bonds in that particular description And you could also be describing an awful lot of companies that are trading in elevated valuations that aren't making any money as well so how is gold any different to uber lift or German bonds or Any other bond that actually trades at a negative yield it isn't so why would you not have some gold in your portfolio? Now that we've broken above The previous peaks at 1920 then for me gold prices. I think could continue to go higher and really the big question is where you know how much higher can they go and To my mind unless there's a big big recovery in economic activity or a rebounding yields Then 2100 is probably the next stop now the big question is where do you get in because I certainly wouldn't be getting in here Certainly be looking for a dip maybe back to 2000 if we do get a dip back to 1920 Then again certainly look at that because previous peaks generally tend to act as decent support levels on any pullbacks But certainly I think in terms of gold For the time being The only way is by the dips I think in in terms of gold prices Getting asked about silver. Yeah, I mean silver a lot of people got burnt Quite a while ago in the big sell-off from $50 I Certainly think there's potential for silver to go an awful lot higher just based on the gold silver ratio And again, I talk about the gold silver ratio in this article here as I say, please read it It's very useful in terms of looking You know where we are with respect to the gold silver ratio. This is the gold silver ratio that I was talking about We've come back quite a long way in terms of the gold silver ratio We can come all the way back here, which means that silver will continue to outperform gold Now what that doesn't mean is that silver will continue to go up It would just mean that if gold and silver sell off Silver won't sell off as fast as gold and that will bring the gold silver ratio down That is a pure outperformance indicator. It doesn't measure how quickly Silver will go up relative to gold or vice versa. So it's a ratio and it's been way out of whack For the last 10 years and now we're getting a bit of a corrective to that So there's certainly potential for more silver outperformance over the course of the next few Weeks and months and the coolest if you don't want to play the gold silver ratio You can always play the precious metals index Which has the silver weighting of 41 point two five percent relative to gold twenty nine point one percent So if you think silver is going to outperform gold on our CMC markets precious metals index You can never play around with that right, so Brings us back to silver thirty dollars an ounce is probably going to be a bit of a barrier So again, I wouldn't be getting overly aggressively Longer silver at these sorts of levels and when you look at where silver was on the 19th of March is doubled so Sorry, Alan. I'll get to you sterling Aussie. I had a lot of questions. I do apologize sir So sterling Aussie it's looking It's looking a little bit toppy overall but What this has told me here is it we've probably seen a bit of a base Or it's forming a little bit of a base if I draw a horizontal line Through these peaks here. There is certainly potential For an inverse head and shoulders starting to form on sterling Aussie However, we're not going to really know how that's going to play out until such times as we Get a pullback and as long as we don't break below 180 Then I think there's a good chance that the bottom is in for sterling Aussie and we can see sterling Aussie head back towards 190 so Be a bit of short-term weakness on the sterling Aussie may find a few bids around about 180 But I would certainly look for a look to buy sterling Aussie on a dip back towards 180 with a stop-loss around about 179 and a half there or thereabouts Based on that particular piece of price action there But obviously you have to be prepared if you do break below 179.50 you get out and then have another look at something else But certainly looking for a bit of a buy the dip trade on sterling Aussie Let's see. What else have I got any other questions? Have I forgotten anyone because I'm just looking through Most of it. Yeah gold is gold is massively overbought doesn't mean the trend can't continue The S&P remained overbought in 2015 for two years and continue and still continue to go higher so it's not about being overbought or oversold because depending on the indicator the value of the indicator you use The degree of overboughtness can vary. So this is this gives you a decent Let's let's look at that. Let's look at a couple of different indicators What I generally tend to use on gold is a slow stochastic now that is a smooth Indicator now you can see it's been overbought since 1700 So all the way up here David I'll come to your question on sky news in a minute So don't let me forget it and I'll talk to you about it So we can remain overbought for a very very long time So what we can do here if we use another indicator, let's use an RSI for example Okay, and change the value to say 13 Suddenly it becomes a little bit less overbought Now let's make it 21 And even less overbought, but it's been it's starting to get overbought here And an RSI using a different value to the 10 that I've used over here So on this RSI, it's not overbought on this slow stochastic. It is overbought So you have to be very very careful about What you do consider overbought and oversold because it really does depend on the oscillator that you're using underneath your chart so the question I would ask you is is What indicator are you using that's saying that gold is massively overbought and Maybe you need to consider maybe Tweaking it so that you can get an idea of perspective when it comes to what is overbought and what is oversold In terms of my interview on sky news It was on BP I was talking about BP on Sky news I was talking to the BBC on Monday about HSBC. So hopefully that answers your question Did you have a question on BP David or or banks in general? Or was it just just curiosity or anything like that? See I think this is the thing when you use going back to what I was saying about gold and indicators The oscillator that you use on the bottom of your chart will basically vary Significantly depending on the value that you use. So if you're looking at a daily chart Then I would argue that looking at the last 10 days is probably a good compromise and The reason for that is that generally When you get a very sharp move higher It won't generally last for more than 10 days. Now, obviously there will be extremes like this moving gold prices But by and large If you have an indicator underneath your graph an oscillator slow stochastic a MACD and RSI and It's overbought but the trend is higher Ignore the oscillator Because an oscillator is very much a Secondary indicator You break down markets and charts In I break down markets and charts into two categories primary indicators and secondary indicators Oscillators are very much secondary indicators. They need to confirm What my primary indicator is telling me if my primary indicator is telling me the trend is up and Trend an uptrend is higher lows and higher highs and it's overbought. I discard or ignore What the oscillator is telling me? Because until such times as one of those previous lows on the uptrend gets taken out Then the trend is assumed to be in place until you have significant evidence that it is reversed So for me, it's always about the trend. It's always about the price The oscillators should help you In terms of timing and entry and exit point into the underlying trend Do not use an oscillator to go short into an uptrend or a downtrend Use it to take profit if you want to Do not whatever you do use an oscillator to sell into an uptrend or go short into an uptrend or by buying, you know, or do the opposite in a downtrend Because you could end up Underwater very very quickly Any oscillators need to confirm what your primary indicators are telling you hopefully that makes sense Yeah, okay, so about Sky News and BP. Yeah I mean the reason BP did as well as it did in the wake of the dividend cut was because it was largely Expected let's have a look at BP because I was talking to sky about it earlier this week and There's your up move of course since then we've come back down again. Um, I mean BP's Been paying a dividend that it can't afford for quite some time now It's got debt levels of over and above Almost 50 billion dollars. It has brought them down to 40 billion dollars. It's gearing is well over 30% and It's struggling to make any money and it's just taken 15 to 20 billion dollars of write-downs in terms of it's over a future overall future output Despite the dividend cut the BP It's still got a 5% dividend yield even after the dividend cut So when you look at BP relative to say for example other companies Had a 10% dividend yield before it's got a 5% dividend yield now So assuming that it can hold on to roughly where it is now then It should as long as it stays above The lows in March You should still be able to get a 5% return Which in a in a world of low or negative interest rates isn't too shabby So really then the only decision you have to make David is Whether you think the bottom is in for BP and whether or not it's worth buying some BP shares for the 5% dividend yield that you're going to get That was essentially what I was on TV to talk about with respect to BP Is the worst behind them if it is You know, it's it really depends on whether or not you think that the bottom is in for BP Now I'm being asked a rather naughty question by an Irish friend of mine about BT not BP BT I don't know whether you read my note on BT, but The lows that we saw in 2008 2009 around about 78 80p It's working in a very competitive Space It's going to have to pay out an awful lot in terms of 5g and High five a super five a broadband and the big question I have about BT Even without the dividend questions is whether or not they can afford it now there was speculation last weekend the open reach was on the table in terms of Being sold Personally, I think if they sell open reach they'd be making a big mistake because it's about the only part of their business that is actually worth anything so You may find that they might sell a stake in it which could help bolster their finances but overall It's For me. I think there's too many uncertainties around it at the moment. It certainly seems to be good support in and around these lows here um, if I just get rid of This level here we can see that every time it's dropped down to 94 95p It's come back the thing that worries me Is that every rebound that we've seen since then has been fairly shallow Which makes me think that we may have another crack at the downside and these lows that we saw all the way back in March 2009 when it bottomed out around about 78p But I can't imagine that the british government would allow BT to go bust so um on that basis They might be worth a punt, but I certainly wouldn't recommend you buy them I hope that helps Yeah, um with respect to cmc market share price movement. I can't really help you there because we don't have it on the platform I'm sorry about that sir I can't advise you on that Any other have I forgotten anybody? Just quickly going through stuff Okay, so I'm going to I'm going to wrap this up. But first and foremost before I go um The key items to keep a close eye out for next week the uk's second quarter gdp Which is due out on the 12th? So that could that could weaken the pound in the short to medium term Um expecting an a number in the region of between minus 15 and minus 20 um We've also got july jobless claims. I think they're going to be more important than the uk ilo unemployment numbers um Because they're still around about 3.9 or 4 percent when the actual real unemployment number is far higher than that The fact that people are on furlough is keeping the official ilo unemployment numbers artificially low So keep an eye on the jobless claims numbers. They were at 7.3 percent. They're due out on tuesday Also to get a better idea of what the uk jobs picture looks like Need to compare the number of people on the payroll before march And The number that's on the payroll now now in june that was 660 000 lower March So I will be looking to see whether or not july brought an improvement on that number Or a deterioration in that number We've also got us retail sales on friday Seen a decent rebound in consumer spending. I think july My struggle because of what's happened in the sunbelt states. They've fallen consumer confidence And that we saw in july as well We could see us consumers start to adopt The safety first approach when it comes to consumer spending So those could disappoint obviously the weekly jobless claims that we've got due out on the thursday Will we get a spiking claims now that the unemployment Enhanced benefit of six hundred dollars a week has rolled off And then we've got chinese retail sales and industrial productions Also out on the 14th of august So keep an eye on those numbers. So those are the key macro announcements that I got my eye out for Over the course of the next few weeks the next few weeks next few days what am I talking about? Anyway on that note ladies and gents, I'd like to thank you all very much for your company this afternoon Thank you for all the questions. I hope you found it useful Um more than happy to answer any questions via email or what have you? um If you want to answer them if you could leave some feedback On the webinar, I would be very very grateful. You'll be receiving an email from myself over the course of the next 24 hours And if you've got any suggestions on how we can improve it, um, they would be gratefully received as well Otherwise, I'd like to thank you all for listening and have a great weekend. Thanks very much. Cheers guys