 Aliens come down from Mars and are horny for Bitcoin and hack all of our wallets and steal our Bitcoin in advance of the having to be honest I think that's one of the stupider things I've ever heard. It's not bearish if the market goes down to 5k or even 48 or 45 It's just that it's going to be an accumulation period. 5k is about the most bearish scenario that I could think of I don't see a reason that we would return to, you know, the 3,000 votes Hi, everyone. My name is Giovanni. Welcome to our weekly crypto market show Today with us crypto trader Michael van de Pop and for the first time on our channel Scott Melker Bet and known on Twitter as the wolf of all streets. How are you doing guys doing great? Thank you for having me Yes stable. Thanks Bitcoin has been struggling to establish a strong support on the seven thousand dollar benchmark Traders now point at the Fibonacci retracement indicator as a sign that Bitcoin is likely to retest the low $5,000 soon before seeing another rally. Do you agree with this analysis at this point? I think the market is just in between levels in which we have been reaching around these six six to seven four k So for like three weeks now to three weeks Basically in the size of on the market switch way we want to go if we lose six point six to six point eight k As a zone, I'm assuming we are going to test the lower five case But given that we've got an halving coming up pretty soon I think we should see some more FOMO going into that event And then we are just going to Tesla seven six seven eight and then go down. So I'm mid-term a little bit bearish on Bitcoin short-term. We could see some FOMO given that we just bounced from six point six k It's just indecisive Scott what do you agree with this analysis? Do you do you have your own? You know, I'm not one to really make bold price predictions far in advance. It's just not my style I trade the charts sort of level to level You know, if you are a Fibonacci trader, there's a couple assumptions. I assume that you have to make your One is that, you know, we're I'm assuming they're talking about the move from roughly 3,800 back up to 7,400 So that level at around five grand would be five k would be, you know The 61.8 percent or golden golden pocket retracement. So that would make sense We have to assume then that 7,400 was the high And I agree with Michael, you know, there's no reason right now. We haven't lost any key support I don't see seven k as You know a key level as you sort of mentioned it. I think that it's now ranging after a significant move up and consolidating So, you know right now nothing would surprise me, but five k is not even remotely on my radar You know, I think that we would have to see quite a few things happen before I would expect five k to be a significant level So what's the most bearish scenario that you can think about right now if it's not five k? Five k is about the most bearish scenario that I could think of. I don't see a reason that we would return to, you know The 3,000 bows. I think that there were specific exchange events that had nothing to do with the fundamentals of Bitcoin itself that caused price to go there, you know, I believe that On the drop the first half of that drop was, you know, institutional selling and whale moves or whatever you want to call it, you know, risk off people Selling their bitcoin because it was a liquid liquid asset to cover losses in other places But then, you know, there's pretty good evidence that the second leg of that down Was a result of bit mixes liquid liquidation engine completely spazzing and breaking down So I don't, you know, really account for that movement down to three grand I don't think it was meant to happen. It could have gone to zero if they hadn't shut it off So, you know, if you step away from the charts, I think that that was sort of the back leg of the big drop was somewhat absurd And we've corrected so looking at a chart using those levels is a bit suspect Michael, do you have anything to add? Well, um It's not bearish if the market goes down to five k or even four eight or four five It's just that it's going to be an accumulation period. So a real bearish scenario would be if we start to make new lows Correct. I don't see that happening in the short term. Um, I just see bit going going into an accumulation phase Um, and just seeing some formal going towards the halving So calling it like a real bearish scenario would be that we're going towards two k But I'm just not seeing that happening in the short term I agree. I agree. I think, you know, even five k is just a healthy retracement. Like you said, it's just backtesting levels We have just just had And what about a bullish scenario like what's the most optimistic scenario that you can think about? Um Scott Uh, I think like you said, I think on the monthly chart, certainly is the 7,777 coincidentally a strange number but that level Much like 6666 actually has been very key. So, you know, I think that uh, I have somewhat of an expectation that we'll at least test that level if we get above that And I think we can start talking about, you know, the low eight thousands where the Impulsive moved down on march 12th began Uh, and like I said, I don't want to get too far ahead like right now I see no good reason to start talking about all-time highs or 1415 k is again It's possible, but you know, I think I'll be getting ahead of ourselves So right now I would say, you know, mid to high seven thousands and then if that happens to break, you know, the low low to mid eight thousands I like you are down to earth predictions so Moving on to the next question Last week we saw a recovery in the stock market with the s and p 500 gaining 12 Some investors are already thinking it's a it's a good time to buy Others think that the market hasn't fully factor in the damage caused by the kovid 19 and that the bottom has still to come What is your personal take on on this issue scott? I'm very bearish on the stock market. I have been I've been shorting it aggressively since the very top every time it bounces I've sold into it and I haven't been proven wrong yet if you want to talk about it technically, you know, it's a Insanely large impulsive move Especially for the stock market to have dropped as far and as fast as it did And so for it to bounce back up here a 50 percent retracement That's something you expect and you see on every chart historically after every impulsive move So to me this looks more like a dead cat bounce or just a reaction to the aggressiveness of the move down And in no way did it look like a reversal now, of course I could be proven wrong and infinite kiwi is certainly helpful when you know that the market is being manipulated On the level that it is but if you take a look at the chart This entire move back up has been on decreasing volume And every single daily candle has less buying than the daily candle before that is a classic sign Of bearish consolidation not of a reversal So you always the price bounces if the price and the volume are not in agreement then you expect continuation If you want to look at the macro factors here beyond the the fed and the obvious manipulation by the government GDP is projected to drop this quarter more than it did in the entire great depression. I mean, that's astounding fact we're talking about 30 40 percent decrease in GDP in a quarter We've already seen 22 million jobs lost in the united states in less than a month Which is almost double the great depressions on employment There's no demand everybody's sitting at home. Nobody's buying anything. There's no supply nothing shipping They're killing pigs and burying crops because they have nobody to sell them to this is an unprecedented situation The economy is completely screwed and if the market continues to rise it will only because be because the fed is buying in some manner That's what I think Michael, do you also think that was a dead cat bounce? Yeah, well, I mean If we go back in time and with the crypto markets, we have seen a whole cycle in the past three years And I just get the feeling that I've I've I've published a bearish tweet on amazon yesterday And I got just roasted by it Because people are so in that stock right now and they expect the stock to just go up and up and up Which makes me feel like it's the same market as bitcoin december 2017 In which people stop to believe that things will go down because of the economy and just start Continue moving upwards. So what I call this is the big short 2.0 And there's if you go towards the coronavirus, I think there are two big groups One group is expecting the coronavirus to just vanish away within a few weeks and the economy will just start off Back again through a switch and there's a group expecting the economy and the coronavirus to be Staying around for a few years in which the economy will just be Just crushed I'm in the last group as I just don't see any slowing down in the coronavirus at all I see countries accelerating back again The uk just announced that they are going to lock down stuff for three weeks more So the economy will just be destroyed and it's just a matter of time until people start to realize That companies won't really reach their targets and then things start to flip over So I think it's a dead cat bounce and we're just in for way more trouble on the on the on the markets So you don't only expect these Gains to be short living, but also you expect new lows This whole move up is not sustainable It's just not the jobless games came out today 5.2 million which is 22 million right now and about 16 unemployment rate in the state right now Markets go up That's just not sustainable through which I believe that the longer the coronavirus stays around The harder the impact will be on the economy and the economy will just lag behind So within a few months, we'll just be crushing back down is what I believe Bitcoin has been showing a strong correlation with the stock markets in the past few weeks When do you think we'll see Bitcoin behaving again as a non-correlated asset? Michael Well, it's funny. We had this discussion earlier today between the two of us During crisis times. I tend to believe and what you see is that assets and correlation between assets go to one or at least Increased to that level So what we witnessed on black Thursday the 12th of March is all assets just decreased Because people were selling their risk assets for their losses on the equity markets to cover that True institutionals, but also people just selling because of fear for the coronavirus And I don't see Since then we said we saw a bounce back up from the equity market. So we are seeing it on the crypto market So you're seeing it on the commodity markets Which makes me believe that the correlation is still there and will remain to be there Unless people start to lose their faith in the field currency And start to seek for other assets outside of that. So they fly away And then you want to see gold moving up want to see silver moving up And that's the opportunity for bitcoin to step in if people seek for other assets than the usd Then bitcoin has their chance his chance to to perform Scott, what do you think? I mean at the at the moment I think that you both agree that the dollar is considered the best safe haven because still right now people People want the dollar want to to fly to flee into the dollar because it's a safe haven at the moment But what so when do you think that this? Mistrust towards if you have currency will manifest itself Well, first the dollar has been the only safe haven asset for a long time Regardless of how many they print Everybody in the world needs it everybody in the world wants it and everybody in the world awards it So for talking about the dollar The sort of you know bitcoin maximalist theory that it's going to hyperinflate soon and that bitcoin is going to be the most valuable asset is unproven and is a dubious At best if we're talking about correlation, I have sort of a different take Uh than michael on this although I do agree in some part So, I mean we should talk about what correlation even means it just doesn't mean the charts kind of look the same You know it goes back to markowitz and modern portfolio theory Uh correlation is a mathematical equation and it as he said it goes from negative one to one For 11 years bitcoin has been the only truly uncorrelated asset It's a point one five zero and close to zero means not correlated If you're at minus one it means they're inversely correlated if something goes up 10 percent You expect the other asset to drop 10 percent and if they're one, you know One goes up 10 points that 10 percent the other goes up 10 percent as he touched on When there's a crisis that goes out the window and everything pushes towards a one But actually bitcoin really hasn't pushed beyond a point five, which is still a loosely Correlated asset and we we can also You know talk about correlation in general from a risk perspective But you know bitcoin is a non correlated asset because We can talk about the four main kinds of assets that there are right stocks bonds Currencies and commodities and that's it and they're all correlated in some way Their value is derived from interest interest rich gvp Corporate earnings whatever it is bitcoin doesn't derive its value from any of those things Bitcoin derives its value from things like millennial adoption government regulation Network value, you know things like that, but they're completely uncorrelated as far as how their value is assessed If we're talking about price Yes, both dropped But I think you can dig a little deeper into that as well to see that there's not really that much correlation On march 12th bitcoin dumped. We know that I've already given you my theory on why it went as far as it did But the spx spx the market didn't actually bottom until the 23rd So nine days later and while that was happening bitcoin went up 60 or 70 So you can't ignore the fact that they were completely uncoupled During that time and this has not been that long of a time. So there's a general trend Of the prices being similar and yes, I do believe obviously that bitcoin is a risk off asset And when there's a real dump on everything it's going to dump with them But so do gold and silver the other quote unquote uncorrelated assets So for me, I think that they're already in some regard decoupling and one more important point that I have to give to everyone Who thinks that they're completely correlated if you look at the charts bitcoin's actually been leading the market So like yeah, the market opens, you know on a monday and it's up, but bitcoin's been up the whole weekend If you believe that bitcoin is leading the us stock market or as a leading indicator I mean that is just absurd. I've got a you know A nice bill to sell you on pluto with lakefront property in a sunroof because it's just not even possible So as far as I understand the point where you disagree is that Fiat currency like the dollar will eventually Become hyperinflated and the bitcoin will kind of Be seen as a solution for that Because I think that michael has more of a positive view about it while you scott seems to be quite skeptical I'm not skeptical of it Long term, but I'm saying it shouldn't even be on your radar right now. I mean, yes, I think and I've said this countless times I think everyone should own some bitcoin even if it's just one to five percent of what you have In case we go full mad maps or I am legend and the world completely melts down and we're in this apocalyptic scenario And you know the dollar hyper inflates and and that's where we will be but I certainly don't cheer for it Uh, and you know, I don't think that that is in our immediate future I just don't think that that's what's coming yet I do think that it could certainly happen, but you know, I don't think that's going to be In the next weeks months even years. I do think that that could happen down the road We've seen it all over the place. We saw it in the 30s, you know 20s and 30s in germany We certainly are seeing it now in venezuela But the difference is that the dollar is actually the world's reserve currency It's not the same as a random currency in a random country melting down Michael, do you do you have anything to add? It's delusional to think that um that the dollar will just vanish away or that it's just going to hyper inflation That's just that's just a big joke But what you should be considering and watching is what's going to happen with the inflation at some point Printing an infinite amount of money It won't be sustainable. So If the inflation starts to crawl up in the next few years, then it's going to be into a problem area And whether it's going to be the dollar is remaining to be the world reserve currency Or whether it's going to be the chinese huan or it's going to be these str from the imf We don't know we don't know what it takes for the old crisis to just Just go through in which it meshes like are we going to see helicopter money or no? It's just a big guess And until now in the coming few years, I still believe that the dollar will be the reserve currency But hatching yourself through commodities and through Bitcoin is not a bad idea as if at some point the dollar has to be devalued that will be through another asset I agree 100% pretty clear so Let's talk about one of the most important events coming up soon the Bitcoin halving so according to popular blockchain educator Ivan on tech Wales will be trading against retail traders during the bitcoin halving when you sell into a whole liquidity event Where a lot of retail is trying to get in well, then the price doesn't crash as much So it's another important thing to realize that probably Wales will be trading Against against retail during the halving. The logic is that retail traders will buy into the event Hoping for the price to pump immediately after the halving at the same time Wales will be taking advantage of the surge in liquidity to sell large amounts without causing slippage So without causing the price to crash too abruptly. Do you agree with this forecast? Um, I think that's possible I think it's almost equally possible that You know aliens come down from mars and are horny for bitcoin and hack all of our wallets and steal our bitcoin In advance of the halving to be honest. I think that's one of the stupider things I've ever heard um Now that I'm thinking about It's a complete tin hat theory. It reminds me of the wall street bonuses and chinese new year And everyone's going to sell bitcoin to pay their taxes and every ridiculous narrative that we've heard There's literally no evidence that that would happen Uh, it's just a random idea. I don't even understand why that would happen. First of all, that's giving retail way too much credit Retail is not a very big space. They don't have money. There are a bunch of broke kids in their mom's basements These are not people that are going to move the market. They're not going to be buying first of all People are scared of bitcoin. The you know, the greed and fear index is still extreme fear I don't really think that people view the halving as some bullish event It's been talked about for years prices dumped here in advance. We're in a complete global economic crisis I just don't think there's anyone out there who's like I gotta get bitcoin in front of the halving. If they are, they're certainly not buying enough for A whale to sell without slippage. I really think that that's absurd And uh, I wouldn't give that any credence at all Interesting So you're basically saying that there won't be enough Buying movements from the retail sector Before the halving like so you don't think that there are so many people that are actually going to formal in In correspondence to the halving Not an I mean listen whales move this market Retail maybe jumps on board and rides the very back of the train But their money is you know makes no difference when when price dumped on march 12th It wasn't because everybody simultaneously decided they needed to get out of bitcoin It was because a few speculators who needed cash went to the most liquid place that they could which was bitcoin You couldn't even sell a bond on march 12th. There were no bids on the bond books I mean think about that literally the fed had to come in and buy all the bonds that people were trying to sell So if you were a huge operator and you had exposure to bitcoin you had to sell your bitcoin because you literally couldn't even sell other assets They were illiquid So, I mean we know for a fact that 70 percent of bitcoin has not moved Let's say five percent is lost So we're talking about 25 of all the bitcoin is the world is what's actually moving price And it's a few people who own that and decided to sell retail has Very very very little impact on this market. I believe so yes I don't think there's enough retail volume Or fomo in the universe for you know that to be enough for whales to sell in large amounts without slippage Also, I just think that having is like It's yesterday's news man. I mean it's a bullish event fundamentally, but I you know, I don't see anyone that's got like a huge Hard on for it at this point Okay, let's see. Let's see what Michael thinks about this issue. What do you think about Ivan on tax speculation? Yeah, it's It's just one of those stories. I mean, I don't really listen to any of these theories. They just don't make sense It's speculation based on Nothing basically I just want to watch the charts and that's providing me the data that I need to have to trade Usually news is priced in already Um, as we are always behind and there's always inside info People are saying that the crypto markets are manipulated But we are just witnessing the biggest manipulation of our lifetime on the stock market So I just trade the charts and what I feel like with the halving could be that we still see Some slight rally coming into the next few weeks Just so close to the event Which makes it a by the rumor sell the news event Which has been with the previous halving on bitcoin, which you see on the bitcoin cash halving Litecoin halvings, they all have that after which the price just crashed down Because people start to realize that the actual event on the moment itself doesn't make any sense It's a big non-event but long term and structurally after that fundamentally it is a bullish scenario. So Yeah, short term. I just think it's a big non-event and doesn't really matter, but long term It's could kick off a bull market. What's the best way for you guys to trade the halving if there is any specific way to trade it? Scott I agree 100% with Michael that I'm a chart trader The beauty of bitcoin and crypto is that you don't have to think of any of this stuff You don't need a narrative people want a narrative, but you don't need a narrative It's all in the charts. You can look there So I can tell you a day before or a week before what I'm seeing in the chart and what I'm going to do But it's not going to be because of the halving narrative personally I won't trade it any different than I trade any other day And that's what makes bitcoin the most fun and amazing asset to trade because you can actually do it technically You know looking at a stock chart Come on, you know every 50 ma and 200 ma and Retracement level that anybody had drawn on a stock chart completely died you know in a matter of a week or two and It's just really hard to you know when you have to think about things like I said before interest rates or corporate earnings or All these things, you know quarterly earnings and and all the things that give Stocks an actual valuation none of that exists in bitcoin So we get to just look at a chart try to identify on that chart Where the whales are going to try to inflict the most pain and act accordingly So if they decide to you know do something I think we'll see it on the chart and we can behave accordingly Thank you Michael and Scott for the cool discussion. That was very interesting And thanks for being with us My pleasure. Thank you so much for having me Thank you And you guys if you enjoyed the show don't forget to smash the like button and subscribe to our channel Coin telegraph like subscribe and hodl