 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network For one last time. It is time to talk college basketball for this year We have got the men's national championship games night San Diego State Versus you come here here to break it all down from every angle getting dr. Ed fangs read on this game Letting you know where his numbers are seeing value over at Fandall sportsbook This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Sonnis I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm joined here as mentioned by dr. Ed Feng you can find his work at the power act calm and find him on Twitter at the power I can add you con is here seven and a half point favorite against San Diego State I think the final four has outperformed expectations based on the doom and gloom from Twitter So I'm excited. How are you doing today? Good. I didn't I don't know. I didn't maybe I ignore all the doom and gloom on Twitter I think good for you for four. That's how you should live your life. Ed keep keep it that way never change. Yeah Yeah, for sure. I mean, we don't have the blue blood programs but no one cares about that anyway and The first semi-final was absolutely amazing Uh, it was even an additionally amazing experience for me because I did uh, I did have FAU spread. I think I got plus two and a half Um, I had I had some thoughts from Alan Boston in my newsletter. Definitely decided to bet that day of And when Lamont Butler put up that shot as it was in the air, I was like, oh, I don't care what happens with this shot It's a winner either way when right, right? There's no chance of it going into overtime at that point, right? So shot goes or doesn't go like Doesn't matter So that was kind of fun And then it was like insane and everyone I was going kind of crazy and it's a good experience for my kids to See and stuff like that. So that was all good as well We had talked about that spread aspect too in the Gonzaga speed 16 game where either they don't hit that shot at the end You were still covering so it is kind of nice to have that wiggle room of I don't really care what happens here I can just be a sports fan and enjoy and let this bet Play out regardless, but I think the reason people were being You know negative on twitter about this like final four was no blue blood programs ratings will be low But like why do you care if ratings are low? Why do you care who cares you get to watch basketball? Who cares what the ratings are we can sit back enjoy these games and I mean the uconn game wasn't competitive But like hey, you had uconn minus five and a half. So That's not gonna bother you either Yeah, didn't really sweat that much. I actually had uconn minus nine Because bet scope picked out a pretty good number. I forget where I think it was dk So had a little sweat there. Um Had alex caravan over points too, which didn't go until His very last shot. Yeah, so he got to eight points and I had over seven and a half But of course a lot of people probably got eight and a half and then he missed the file shot after that so that kind of stuck too, but uh I guess I guess the point is like player props are fun, right? If the game is not competitive tonight, uh, there's still a lot of ways to uh to get some get some sweat later in the game With some player props and and we can get into that later There certainly are we will discuss some that ed likes for this game talk about the spread talk about the total And get his read on this game overall We'll dive into all that here in just one second But first a reminder to make sure you are subscribed to covering this spread wherever you get your podcast because this fantastic weekend sports Does not end night the masters coming up this week. So tomorrow Brandon can do a little get a swing by and break down all things masters at augusta Well, a full show on that tomorrow on the covering the spread podcast V these also do go up over on the fandal youtube page So make sure subscribe there subscribe to covering the spread and if you like what you hear Leave us a five star rating as well. Whether your bracket is busted still alive Or we're just looking for another way to get involved in march madness fandal has you covered That's why fandal and xfinity mobile are partnering to give you a chance to win a share of ten thousand dollars For the national championship game All you have to do is answer proper pick them questions around in-game action inclusive Of xfinity mobile theme questions And the best part is it is free to play fans that answer the most questions correctly Win a share of the ten thousand dollar grand prize the contest locks night at 9 30 p.m. Eastern So head to fandal now to get in on the action to enter go to fandal com slash freeze slash contest slash Xfinity mobile pick a roll no purchase necessary age and location restriction apply Void or prohibited see full terms at fandal com Xfinity mobile has not sponsored or offered this promotion in any way now before we dive into the national championship games night at I did want to take a look back at the tournament as a whole We talked a lot about parry throughout this year I think that could be one takeaway, but when you look at the the the overall dance What were your biggest takeaways that you want to carry into future seasons? I mean, I think I think the parody thing really kind of stands out. I mean, I don't think this is going to end anytime soon Uh, a lot of people are talking about the the transfer portal as the reason for this A lot of programs like fau can kind of fill in some spots on the roster get some depth Uh through that transfer portal. It's it's kind of evening the player infield It makes sense to me. I haven't really done much thought beyond that but but it certainly does make sense to me and if that's really the case like that's not really going to end and I think in the future That kind of means you got to watch more games because Yeah, you know, I mean the numbers are just are just going to be more they're not going to make a definitive Assessment of these teams. There's you know, you know, there's not going to be as many teams at the top There's not going to be the dominant teams So, um, you know, you got to watch some teams and you know, I'll talk about kind of what I've seen from from the two teams in the final tonight, but um, yeah, I mean, I think uh Heading into the future. It's it's going to be more important to watch games Is that going to change your approach to filling out a bracket knowing that they're We saw more uncertainty this year, but also I think it's reasonable to expect that going forward Yeah, for sure, uh filling out bracket, you know, this year I feel pretty fortunate that I was high on ucon before the start of the tournament because all the other favorites that I like that had better win probabilities You know didn't do as well um And part of that certainly was was watching the games. Uh, I think in the future you're kind of going to be hoping for teams that you like To win the tournament like a ucon to lose semi final of their conference tournament Yeah, probably overrated. So that's going to help that. That's true every year. I'm always rooting for I'm always rooting for those top teams losing the conference tournaments just for the public perception or the potential public perception of that um So, yeah, I mean, you know, there's it's it's going to get trickier Yeah, so we had a fun tournament this year a lot of parody and it sounds like We're probably going to get that fun going forward to which I am all in favor for because I know again The blue bloods aren't here But this has been a fun tournament to watch and I think that I want that in the future Let's dig in now to tonight's game. We got san diego state taking on ucon Ucon a seven and a half point favorite of fan dual sports book It's minus 120 on the plus seven and a half on the san diego states died The total in this game is 132.5 now. We'll dig into these specific markets in the second ed but first Did you learn anything about these two teams and saturday's games that you want to apply to tonight? Absolutely, I I'm hesitant about how strongly I want to say this, but I do not think san diego state is a good basketball team I I I struggled to see how I mean look they've they've had some good fortune in getting this far And you didn't have to watch more than that semi-final to figure out coming back from I mean, how many points were they down in the second half? I don't even remember off the top of my head, but Look, this is a good defensive team and we'll talk about that more that actually wasn't the case On uh, saturday night. They actually really struggled on defense and the florid Atlantic team was able to put up a lot of points but For the season for the history of the program. This is a pretty good defensive team But they are just so limited on offense my sense kind of coming into the final four was that they had just Uh made a bunch of contested jump shots that kind of got them to this point That was absolutely the case in the final. I thought there was uh They they just kind of I mean they made half of the threes and still needed a shot at the end of the game to win it. Um I don't know. I don't know how long they can continue to do this. Um, I you know It's it's just kind of not a sustainable way to continue to beat really good teams and they've had their good chair of luck Uh, so far, um, obviously, uh, sweet 16 and elite eight, uh, both those teams shot 11 percent from three Which is partially the defense but partially some good fortune in there as well So I just I'm not at all impressed with this team. Um, can I kid on the other hand? I've I've been uh high on since before the tournament and, uh Expected them the dominate on saturday night. I think they pretty much did and uh Yeah, I see them. Um, I see them winning this game So you bet you con in the final four you were high on them coming in the spread here a seven and a half It's minus one or two on the seven and a half at fangirl sports book at least Do you think that is a fair number you're willing to lay with you con here in the national championship? Yeah, I do think it's a fair number. I mean my number is at seven point seven. So it's basically fair. Um, I grabbed minus six as soon as it came out on saturday night So I was pretty happy with that that was almost instantly gone and moved to Actually, I think it actually moved to seven and a half by sunday morning or maybe even late saturday night. So I'm not Uh, I think that's a pretty fair number. Um, I was looking at bet scope this morning Which is a very good tool for for looking at different markets Fando does have the best money line price at minus three 35 right now Out of any of the books that they track So if you have as much confidence in ucon in this game as me, if you know something about Uh, if you can look into the randomness of three point shooting and no sanday, you'll say it's not going to hit half of their threes again minus three 35 is is the best price you're going to get and if you want to lay that kind of money, uh There probably is valued there Yeah, and uh, we've talked a couple times about your different models how you have an aggressive model and then a different model that's like less aggressive on teams and you said going into The final four that your aggressive model had ucon pretty heavily favored for that game They did cover easily in that one. Is it your more more aggressive model that has seven in the hat or seven point four here? Yeah, it is. Okay. Yeah, i'm not i'm not going to tell you about my other models that use the season long Haven't been as accurate late in the season. Um, I do feel the more aggressive model has been spot on With this connecticut team and i'm not i'm not going back on that now. Um, I don't I don't think this is going to get beyond seven and a half It certainly doesn't look like that from the market, but I think you could make the case that it should be more than seven and a half, right I do think they're significantly the better team Okay, so that has this is seven point four right now and again It's seven point five at fan dual, but minus one or two there implies We could see maybe it gets back to seven it potentially at some point But we'll monitor that and as i'd mentioned the money line price. They're pretty favorable minus third three 35 On ucon total in this game is 132 and a half He mentioned you're skeptical of san diego state's offense and with regards to how much they can do there Any read for you on the total with that in mind? Yeah, this is pretty interesting. I mean, I do think san diego state's going to bounce back to being the excellent defensive team they've been all season over the years with brian dutcher um, but they they were pretty bad saturday night, so um The market seems to think that's a fluke as well. This is a pretty low total It gets harder against ucon because ucon is a more athletic team than and and more explosive team than florida, atlantic uh, jordan hawkins Potentially wasn't 100 on saturday night didn't practice on friday, but he looked fine to me so, uh Yeah, I mean i didn't bet the total i'd probably lean on the over. Um, just because this is pretty low But uh, no bets for me Both sides they're uh minus 110 and the over and under have minus one threat 132 and a half over at fendall sports book now you mentioned some player props You're betting them for other games and we have player props for everybody Basically in this game. So when you look at those ed, where are you seeing value right now? Yeah, so my approach My preferred approach for player props is is to kind of have a take for what I think is going to happen in the game And then go over to betscope and try to find The best look the lowest hold markets across multiple sports book and and I would definitely recommend trying that um the betscope was actually Didn't wasn't showing a lot of value on stuff for the semifinal games uh And that's partially because There were only player props on the starters at least the last time I looked which was which was saturday morning And then it kind of lit up like a christmas tree last night For this final game. I was like, oh, this is kind of fun and the reason why is because you can actually bet on a lot of the bench players So so my take is that san Diego state is going to get back to the way they normally play defense They are a very good defensive team. We've seen that in the tournament That has sustained them for every game except for this past one and I expect them to get back to that I think that means more uh misses and I think that means more rebounds So, you know a couple of markets that have been identified Um Is uh with some with some good low hold across different sports books is is donovan clain Uh, so this guy comes off the bench. He's seven two. He's mobile He doesn't go to the nba and I don't know if he will or not Probably not because I don't see him on draft boards But but this kid is really good He will be if he's in a college basketball next year at ukun He will be one of the best players in all of college basketball. He's seven two. He's mobile um I think there's going to be a lot of rebounds and it's get this guy gets an absurd amount of rebounds per unit per per uh per minute played And I think he's I think he's really talented. I think there's going to be a lot of missed shots on both sides Uh both sides of the glass. Um, you can actually grab over four and a half rebounds Uh over at caesars Yeah, so, uh, I think that would probably be your best bet right now It looked like there was plus 104 this morning. Um, so What? Wow, he's plus 116 or five and a half of fan duel if you can get over four and a half at plus money That seems pretty baller Yeah, for sure. And you know, I mean, I definitely when I look at some of this stuff I definitely think fan duel has been pretty sharp on some of these props. Um, if they're off of The other books it's usually the direction that I think it should be at least it certainly has been One example was alice caravan points Uh against gizaga. So he's he's the other wing. He's a wing for yukon. He's been starting all year He's a six eight freshman and doesn't really look like he can do much has a kind of funky looking shot but like is incredibly efficient on offense and Also him and klingon You know, even if the top three players on this team leave, uh, which would be sunogo hawkins and and jackson I still think this is at least the top five team next year because donovan klingon and, uh, alice caravan Anyway, before the gizaga game, uh Fan duel like a lot of places had caravan seven and a half points and and fan duel had it at eight And every place moved up a point before tip So vandal was certainly leading the right way there. Um So, yeah, anyway for the game, I think klingon over rebounds is is a good thing And uh, I would go with that. I can confirm that that you can still get that number I got plus 120 over four and a half. Um, so I took that I don't know how that's available when you have 16 over five and a half. Yeah, so I took that There you go complaints here anything else i'm going to highlight in this game end before we close up shop um I don't know. I mean I think I don't I think yukon's gonna kind of run away with this if not then maybe we get a close game and we can get a um a close ending Uh before the start of the tournament I did a study about upsets and and what happens in upsets and It's in the tournament and it's really not like what you typically think of, you know, the the the underdog takes more threes what not uh the signature over all college basketball games is that teams that are a dog of six or more points They they tend to shoot five percent better from three than their season long average and they tend to hold their opponents to five percent less from three So that's what san Diego state has to do. They have to get back to like playing their best defense really holding yukon down Which is certainly possible and they have to shoot like they did against florida, which is certainly possible Um, do I see it happening? No, there's a huge random element in three point shooting. I think yukon wins this and possibly by a pretty large margin Yeah, okay. So i'm rooting for cling on now over four and a half That's what I need for two notes and we'll see how things play out with yukon in san diego state Now we're gonna let ed go for today because I have to do covering the pass later on but ed First of all, I just want to say thank you for talking to us throughout this entire tournament Breaking down your thoughts, uh spreading Uh, what's your numbers saying over at the power rank? Uh, we're gonna have you on talks from nfl draft the not, uh Not too distant future. I'm excited for that. I know that the draft is a fun time for you You've been dabbling in betting the draft the past couple of years now. It seems like it's gone pretty well overall So i'm looking forward to those but until then where people find your work. What what is going on for you at the power rank Yeah, absolutely. Check out my work at the power rank dot com in my free newsletter, I curate, uh The tips and bets from from the sharpest minds in the business every saturday. That's five nuggets saturday So, uh, I think a lot of people have gotten a lot of value out of that So you can sign up for that at the power rank dot com Okay, and check out ed on twitter as well at the power rank at ed. I appreciate it And i'm looking forward to talking nfl draft with you, uh soon and fun. Uh, have fun signing. Good luck with your bets Thanks. Yeah, i'm looking forward to talking draft as well and uh, good luck with everything all right jim Alrighty check out ed on twitter at the power rank and again We'll have them back on pretty soon to talk about the nfl draft and get his thoughts on that once again Before we're closed up for today, though Gotta go back through what happened here last week on the show and recap Recommended bets across covering the spread. We had ed on to preview the men's final four the big bet recommendation for ed As we alluded to was yukon minus five and a half They won by 13 to cover that spread pretty easily So not a lot of sweat involved with that one So yukon came up big for ed there and hopefully they came up big for him once again for tonight On the women's side We had justin carter on to preview the women's final four find him on twitter at just carts find his work at her hoop stats And roto baller as well Justin said he liked lsu Minus one and a half from the first game in the final four against virginia tec And lsu was down in the third quarter but came back They played very well in the down the stretch there and they won by seven to cover and obviously won last night as well Justin had south carolina minus 11 and a half against iowa that one did not pan out as iowa actually won that game outright Played really well there obviously and and just to mention the possibility We were talking about the championship future. So he said he liked iowa plus a 50 To win the national championship and his thought process was Their some volatility with the three point shooting in iowa which could be a good thing So they could win that game out right and if they did he thought they'd be favored against either lsu Or virginia tec and they were they were the favorites for last night So would have given you the chance to hedge They were the favorites against lsu could have gotten the lsu money line and plus money But no dice congrats lsu on the win That's on a fun tournament as well Just a fun overall tournament that game last night was fun despite the rest stuff So a good time for sure for someone's basketball check out justin's work again on twitter at just carts On the racing side for me things went pretty well In the markets where i laid a lot of juice and i talked about this when we're talking about other stuff Tell my props Value is value. I don't mind Getting a long shot. So they're a good value. I don't mind, you know laying big money If it's a if it's a value bet and that was kind of how things played out in both nascar and formula one Starting in formula one in australia chaotic race More chaotic than usual which made me very nervous because i had lance stroll I had value on him to finish top 10 finish top six into podium The podium was five to one. Uh, the top six is minus 195 the top 10 was minus 300 and The goal was to ladder those where if stroll finished inside the top six You'd profit and then you add a bit more on the podium So you have upside in case he does finish inside the top three The the hope with stroll podium was you know, one of the red bulls drops out Maybe franando alonso drops out stuff like that He finished fourth stroll did so it looks like it was close. Uh, it wasn't um, he ran six most of the day He only finished fourth because uh carlo signs got a time penalty There was some other stuff that happened super late in that race He was actually off the track when they decided to like red flag it and revert back to the starting order for The final restart. So I don't think he deserved to finish fourth But I'll take it. So It may seem like he was close to the podium. He was not. Um, that was pretty fluky But again, the the t6 and minus 195 and the t10 and minus 300 both cash So hopefully you layer those properly to get a profit off of winning those two and you know No dice in the podium, but it's 16.7 for a reason similar thing in nascar with the cup race on sunday. I talked about how The bets I was seeing that that showed the best value Were on a lot of top studs to finish top 10 at big money Those were larson minus or kyle larson minus 250 kevin harvick and denny hamlin minus 230 joey legano minus 140 three of those four hit which is kind of what you needed if you were um Using kelly criterion to layer these things out You needed two of those or three of those four to finish top 10 to make it work larson won the race So, uh, he cashed a minus 250 harvick finished top five. He was minus 230 legano finished seventh at minus 140 The one who did not was denny hamlin. He had two pit road speeding penalties, which is not ideal. Um He is I'm guessing the career leader in pit road speeding penalties and nascar history It happens a lot. Uh, so he did not cash minus 230 But legano did a minus 140 harvick minus 230 larson minus 250 I never wound up seeing a lot of value in outrides. They did bet hamlin live nine to one when he showed a lot of speed in the second stage, but You know, it was a fine week based on the top 10 So again value is value I'm okay laying big money if I think that they're undervalued and that was the case for both formula one and nascar this week On the non cup series side in nascar in extremely I had coal custer at 10 to 1 to win and uh, brana jones top five at plus 275 jones is really good. Uh, I got wrecked though late in that race. So Didn't finish top five custer did I had it at plus 125 didn't talk about that in the show This doesn't count So no wins there uh in the truck series zane smith was trying to pass Nick sanchez on the final lap got to his outside sanchez got roughed up and zane almost got by him He was plus 320 to win and I thought he was going to get past but couldn't quite get there So he got wrecked which means uh, he did not finish the race. So Carson host of r1 He didn't lead any laps inside the last lap. Nick sanchez dominated that race. So had zane a plus 320 did not cast there but Can't close again. So Couple spots where I you know, maybe got a bit unlucky with the jones top five and the zane win But i'm not sure if I deserve to win the zane one anyway But either way fun weekend in racing and looking forward to bristol dirt this weekend We'll try to find time Probably on thursday's show to talk about some nascar Later on this week big one coming up tomorrow though is the master's We'll let brandon gadoula back on to break down his thoughts on august And his favorite bets over at fan will sportsbook to get that as it goes live Make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast and again Subscribe there if you like what you hear leave us a five star rating We appreciate those of you who have done so already big Thank you once again to dr. Ed feng for swinging by Breaking down down ucon versus sandiego state find at on twitter at the power rank I went twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s want to thank you all for tuning in for today Enjoy the national championship game for tonight. We'll talk to you once again tomorrow to break down the masters This has been covering the spread right here on the fan duel podcast network