 Thank you very much for joining us here to talk about the growth paradigm for emerging markets. As you've probably heard over the last few days here at Davos, there is a renewed confidence in the global recovery that we're seeing today, whether it's the IMAP's growth forecast for global growth, which looks better for 2018 and 2019. And it also does give us an indication that things are recovering and momentum is picking up in emerging markets as well. Each emerging market does, of course, have its own individual specific problems, but there are several common issues that they need to grapple with. Among them, the path to fiscal consolidation, what do you do with employment? What do you do with the skilling issue? How do you adapt and brace yourselves for industry 4.0? What do you do about the cost arbitrage advantage that perhaps is going to change as we move forward? I think these are some of the issues that policy makers as well as corporate citizens in emerging markets are going to have to grapple with. I've got with me here an eminent set of panelists. So let me start by introducing them to you. Joining us today is Mehmet Semsik, the Deputy Prime Minister of Turkey. Appreciate you joining us on the program. Malusi Gigaba, Minister of Finance from South Africa. Thank you very much for joining us. Max Morishkin, Minister of Economic Development of the Russian Federation. Appreciate your time here on the program. Dr. Ngozi Ankudjivala, Chairman of Gavi. And also with us here today, Justin Lin, the Honorary Dean, the National School of Development, People's Republic of China. Appreciate your time here today. And we do have a Brazilian minister joining us here this evening. Also welcome to the program. Mr. Semsik, if I can start by asking you about your basic outlook for growth at this point in time, Turkey is one of the emerging markets that has seen growth in the economy. But you also believe that reforms are going to be vital for the momentum to continue. A, what's the outlook? B, the key reforms that you wish to undertake. Thank you very much. It's a great honor to be here, ladies and gentlemen. Turkey has been a leading growth story of the past 15 years. Growth has averaged about 5.7%. Post-global financial crisis has actually done better. It's about 6.7%. And for almost last century, it averaged about 4.8%. So we have strong growth. What makes me positive about the outlook in the long run, beyond this year and the next, is that we have extremely favorable demographics. In Turkey, we are creating jobs. 8.4 million jobs post-global financial crisis. This is very strong. Labor participation rate is rising. Working age population is rising by about 2%. So demographics supports growth. Secondly, productivity. My government has prioritized infrastructure, investment in education, human capital stock, and R&D innovation ecosystem. We're making progress across the board. I think productivity has also been rising reasonably strong. We still below OECD average, in terms of... But that is supportive of growth. The final point is quality of institutions. There's a big debate about Turkey's recent experience, but we are only responding to geopolitical drags and domestic shocks. Turkey is committed to enhancing rule of law, standards of democracy, and building quality institutions. And we remain an accession candidate, even though the end game is far from being decided. So I think the outlook, based on these three key long-term factors, is positive. Reform-wise, clearly, we need to continue to invest in human and the quality of education matters. Access to education has gone through the roof. Schools are free from preschool all the way to PhD. No tuition fees, scholarship for almost everybody. So we spend 23% of tax revenues on education. So that's one top priority. Labor market flexibility to enhance, you know, clearly prospects of jobs, skills, active labor market policies. That's another key area. Another area, investment climate, we need to attract FDI. There's a lot of competition. And, you know, clearly, this is one area where we use World Bank is of doing business as kind of like guidebook, and we're gonna continue to focus on that. Another area to speed up justice and quality of judicial system, that's another key area. So I can go on and on, but there are really strong, there is strong focus on reforms. A lot of what has happened in our region got in the way, but we're gonna back to... Is politics still the number one risk to growth? Politics has not prevented Turkey from growing. Geopolitics has been a drag. I mean, Turkey today is the world's largest refugee hosting country. We've spent $34 billion on three and a half million Syrian refugees since 2011. I mean, it's reality. But we have to deal with it because we have 911 kilometers of border with Syria. And power vacuum means also terror and high-risk premia. So this has... But despite all this, Turkey has been able to grow. Last year, most likely growth rate, we don't have the fourth quarter, was over 7% in real terms, creating 1.3 million jobs in a single year to keep things in a context. Entire EU 28 members last year created 1.9 million jobs. So Turkey has the momentum. Our vulnerability is not politics. It's actually low savings. We have investment rates of about 29, 30% but savings rates of about 24, 25%. That means sizable current account deficit. We are at the mercy to some extent, global risk appetite. That's why we are taking further reforms. I don't want to take more time, but the latest reform we did, which came on board today, we essentially bearing SMEs from borrowing in hard currency unless they are exporters with some exceptions. And the large companies are going to require them to hatch or have a natural hatch. So basically to contain exchange rate volatility the way India, Indonesia have done it, which we're not reinventing the wheel. We've done an important reform, which is a macro-prudential step because lira weakness has been key to high inflation and we want to contain it. And I think inflation control is something that everybody on this panel is going to be focusing on. But let me come to you Mr. Oreshkin and talk about the outlook for Russia. You've just presented your outlook for 2020. You want to reduce your dependence on volatility of oil prices. You intend to invest significantly in technology. Your growth outlook is what? Between 2.1% and about 2.3% between 2018 and 2020. How do you intend to get there? It's actually a base case. In the optimistic case, which we are targeting, we are targeting the growth of 3.5% for the forthcoming years. The story for Russia is that we were adjusting in the past couple of years to lower oil prices. We did it. We'll turn back to growth. We have inflation of 2.3%. This year we will have a fiscal surplus of more than 1% of GDP. And what is more important that we have implemented a number of structural macroeconomic reforms. And we completed this. And this set of reforms, these new institutes will be defending domestic economy from the volatility of oil prices. So for Russia these days, oil prices not matter that much like it was five, seven years ago. What is also important is that Russia in the different stage of debt cycle and economic cycle comparing with most of the emerging markets. On average, emerging markets these days are having debt of 190% of GDP. Russia it's only 80%. So we are in the beginning of the long standing credit cycle and long standing economic cycle. And we will be trying to do our best in order to make this growth cycle stronger. I want to pick up on one specific issue and that is the unemployment rate because according to your own projections between 2017 and 2019 you expect unemployment rates between 5.2% and 4.9%. How much of this is a concern and a worry for you and how do you intend to address it? Well, demography is one of the key challenges for Russia. In the forthcoming years we will be experiencing decline in working age population. So that is why, for example, digitalization and technology is one of the answers to those problems that we have. A lot of people speak about automation, artificial intelligence and that this can be a problem in terms of the job market. For Russia it's actually a solution to the problems that we have on the demography side. All right, let me come to South Africa then and let me ask you, sir. Some of the challenges that you face, I think some challenges that we face in India as well, dealing with unlocking value as far as state owned companies are concerned, for instance, fiscal consolidation is an issue that you're grappling with as well. Unemployment, as we just heard there from Russia, is a challenge that you're faced with as well. What is the outlook for 2018 and what is the reform agenda? You know, we have gone through several years of economic slowdown. At first it was as a result of the global slowdown but we've seen the curve turning in terms of the global economic outlook. Even for sub-Saharan Africa we expect stronger growth. But South Africa trails behind that growth curve. As a result in large measure of systemic and subjective structural factors in the economy that we need to deal with. A lot of the reasons why our economy is growing slowly, it's not creating employment, it's because of subjective factors that are within the control of government. And all we need to do is to take the hard decisions and that includes a number of structural factors, the resolving outstanding sector policies around mining, telecommunications and energy, resolving the governance of state-owned companies and strengthening the financial sustainability for state-owned companies and ensuring that they have proper management and they are run properly. And addressing the problems of unemployment and labor market reforms which require that we forge stronger partnerships between government, the private sector and labor, but also ensuring that we respond to our challenges by providing political certainty. So in our country we've had a number of these challenges. So for this year, much as the IMF has revised our growth projections downwards to 0.9, we think that we can because of the political certainty that has now been provided and a number of other positive factors in our economy, a promise that we can resolve the sectoral challenges and boost business confidence. We think that we can surprise ourselves to the upside and get the economy going stronger than what has been the case. So my thought is that the 0.9% growth projection by the IMF is only if things remain the same and we do nothing more. And I think if we are going to do something, there's been a positive sentiment even here among investors if we sustain that momentum of confidence because building business and consumer confidence is the cheapest form of stimulus, they say. We intend to do exactly the same thing and fight corruption, create a positive perception about public institutions in the country. And we think that would turn the economy around and get us going. Well, you're not the only one who thinks that the IMF growth forecast for your country is not accurate. Brazil, sir, you feel exactly the same way. You believe that the IMF is wrong in its forecast of 1.5% growth for Brazil. You believe that it's likely to be upwards of 3% and you believe that is on account of things like pension reforms that you've been able to take. And you even think that the elections, in fact, are a stimulus for growth. Why is that? Well, let's go by part. First, indeed, I think that the projections for the GDP growth for 2017 are being revised up by the analysts in general and by the agencies and by ourselves. And the reason for that is that the economy is recovering faster and in a stronger path than it was forecasted before. You might recall, we have faced and come out of the worst recession ever in Brazil. We faced a contraction of 8% of the GDP in two years and one quarter. And now it's a very strong recovery but coming from a minus 3.6 in 2016 to plus one in 2017, which is all forecast, is a very strong and steep path of recovery. And that is continuing in 2018. Then definitely we are getting into this year with a strong momentum. Social security reform indeed is very important for the consolidation of the fiscal path during the next years. It's a challenge, obviously, as in any country to reform the pension system. But I am confident that this is going to be approved, it's going to be voted now in February and that's an important element. Regarding elections, obviously, that's a question to be seen but my point is that with all the bad experience Brazilian heads during the last years with let's call alternative macroeconomic policies. And now with the kind of reforms and fiscal consolidation center, the country growing again and jobs being created, 1.4 million new jobs created in 2017, expectation of 2.5 million new jobs in 2018. We think, I personally have this opinion that all of that paves the way for a decision made by the voters of continuing a path which is leading to growth and has showed that during the past. Okay, I'll come to some of the specific issues that each of you have raised but let me come to you, Justin Lin. You know, there is confidence that's emerging here on this panel of emerging markets. If I look at what the IMF or the World Bank are seeing that the risks at this point in time to growth seem pretty balanced, what would you believe could sort of aid the recovery or what could be a deterrent to the momentum continuing? Well, let me answer a question in a long historical context because this year, China is celebrating the 40th anniversary of transition from a planned economy to a market economy. And as you know, the growth in this 40 years is a miracle in human history. On the average, the gross rate was 9.5% per year for 40 years. But certainly, China now is an upper middle income country and a gross rate moderates some fat, but only some fat. Because the last year, the government gross target was 6.5% but the gross rate last year was 6.9%. Certainly, we do not expect China to go back to 9.5, 10% gross, but I'm very confident this year the gross will be between 6.5% to 7%. Whether China will be close to 7%, very much depends on external economic situation. But even if the gross income country is as standard as our own, I'm very confident the gross will be close to 7%. But even there's something unexpected, I think China will have the potential and likelihood to have a gross rate of 6.5% at least. And if we come in to look forward, I think coming in five years or more, very likely, China will be able to maintain 6% gross rate. And the reason I have this confidence is because first, China is an up-to-middle income country. And so the gross potential is still very large. Secondly, China has enviable saving rate. And our saving rate is more than 40% of GDP among the highest. At the same time, we have a very high employment rate. And as a result, also income increased faster than the GDP gross rate. And that translates to high consumption gross rate. So with that, certainly, I think no matter what kind of external situation, China will be able to maintain 6% gross in the coming years. Certainly, the challenge in China is not gross itself. The challenge in China is how to sustain the gross with higher quality of gross. And for that, China will have to continue the reform because as you know, China did not adopt structural appeal to remove all the distortion at the beginning of this transition. China adopted some kind of very pragmatic dual track in a gradual reform strategy. And so in our economy, there are still many distortions, interventions for that China need to deepen in the reform. But at the same time, China also need to address the issue of income inequality. In order to make every people, every person in China can be happy with the gross we have. Fair point. And the third one is that with income increase, people will demand higher standards on many things. And I like environment, green growth, public service and so on. And I think that gross rate is not an issue, but how to really sustain this gross and with higher quality gross will be the challenges. And that is actually the, you know, program that has been announced by President Xi Jinping at the party congress. Yes. And so maybe we can expect China to have high gross with high quality also. High quality growth is what the aspiration is in China. But I want to pick up from where we left off as we're talking about China. And if I can come to your Conjurevala. You know, and Justin Lin, you were your comments on a report that I read, which Deloitte has put out, which expects a demand shock for emerging markets in a good way. And that's because you believe that China could lose up to 85 million jobs within the next decade due to rising production costs. So while that could be a challenge for China, could it be an opportunity for other emerging markets or Conjures? Let me respond first. Okay. All right. Since it was your comment, I'll get you to respond first. It's a challenge, but it's a necessity. If China want to retain those 85 million labor intensive, low-value added jobs in China, then the gross target in China will not be achieved, right? So if China wanted to have a high income continuously, China needs to upgrade the industry continuously. And to new sector which, you know, emerge as a new competitive advantage of China. All sectors used to be the competitive advantage of China, they will have to be, you know, relocate to other countries. Yes. Voluntarily or involuntarily. That is a process of economic development. And certainly my sister will be very happy to answer the second half of the question. So the shift in production that we just discussed here, what kind of an opportunity does it throw up for other emerging markets? Well, I think it throws up a significant opportunity, especially for, I think the African countries should try to seize this opportunity. But of course they have to compete with other poorer East Asian countries like Cambodia and so on Vietnam, North Africa. But I think it's a significant opportunity and we are seeing some of that coming through, through in Ethiopia. Where China has made a conscious effort to set up industrial parts, to shift some of the production of textiles and shoe and leather to Ethiopia. And I think it's working from an investment of about $200 million. It's now going to be tenfold, about $2 billion. And they're also investing in infrastructure. But for us, let's say on the continent, emerging markets on the continent and any emerging markets to seize this opportunity, we have to do two or three things. I think one is infrastructure deficit, particularly in Africa and some of our countries without adequate power. Yes. Ports and railroads will not be able to seize that opportunity because we've got to be able to provide the basic wherewithal to make the manufacturing work. We also need to look at doing business indicators. The bureaucracy and red tape of some of our policies that prevent us from taking advantage. And I believe that several countries on the continent have done better than doing business. Minister Shemche spoke about that for Turkey. Several African countries have improved on that, including my own country, Nigeria. And we have to do structural reforms that will enable us to be able to sustain and provide the environment. But the answer is yes. And if we don't move, well, every country will take advantage, those that can. Minister Maria, let me come to you now because when we're talking about competitive advantage and when we're talking about emerging markets utilizing the opportunity that they have at this point in time to nurture the growth that you're seeing or the recovery that you're currently seeing. Brazil, for instance, it's seen as a closed economy. You do have high import tariffs, protectionist measures. As you now look at trying to be a much larger player in the global landscape, what is it going to take in terms of key structural reforms, in terms of being able to attract foreign direct investment, in terms of being able to reduce tariff barriers? What is it going to take to make you more competitive? Yes, you are right in the sense that Brazil has grown throughout the last decades based on a model of developing the domestic market, increasing the market, for instance, to give an idea only from 2003 until 2014, 63 million Brazilians joined the middle class, for instance, of a population of about 200. That means that indeed this model has worked for a time. It's not relevant any longer. Yes, exactly. Now the next challenge is to open up the economy and this is exactly what we are doing now. The question that you pose then is, okay, you open up, but how do you become competitive moving from a domestic-based consumption model to export competition? The idea here is to make, and we are already doing that, a series of structural reforms in order to boost competitiveness. For instance, it was already approved a very comprehensive labor reform, simplifying the whole system, lowering the cost, making the whole system more competitive. For instance, changing the credit market, reforming the credit market, offering more credit available, et cetera, have investments into infrastructure, privatization, bringing private capital to infrastructure investment, also that boosts productivity, cutting red tape throughout the country, investing more in technology, in investment, in research, and all of that together is a series of reforms that we call the microeconomic reforms, which means productivity-enhancing reforms. But does it worry you that you've decided to open up at a time when it looks like the world is moving towards closing their doors and windows, or at least seems so at this point in time? Absolutely, but still, the difference was so large that we still have room to get together. Let me ask you, you talked about foreign direct investment and the plan there for Turkey to be able to attract foreign direct investment. In terms of structural reforms, what is it that you intend to focus on to ensure that that is, in fact, a reality? Well, in terms of attracting FDI, clearly the market size is there. I mean, Turkey now, including the refugees, you're talking about 85 million population per capita GDP at the current exchange rate, which has imploded in recent years on the back of political risk premia, still well over $10,000, on a PPP base about $26,000, $27,000. So it is a sizable market, and it's a growing market. So that, on its own, is attractive. But to make it more attractive, I think we should continue to invest and do the way our Brazilian friends are doing in a growth-enhancing productivity-enhancing reform, because it's all about prospects of growth. And prospects of growth are strong. The reforms that we are talking about, clearly a better investment climate would help, because as I said, there is a lot of competition. But also sometimes, you know, a targeted incentives would help. We do have a tailor-made incentive regime that is aimed at reducing Turkey's reliance on imports, dependency on imports. So companies that do come to Turkey to invest, we do, you know, support them strongly. You know, huge tax breaks or other supports if they're going to either reduce, you know, imports or expand our export capacity. It's a very transparent, competitive way. It's open to everybody. So it's not a protectionist, you know, attitude or framework. So certainly that also probably will help going forward. What would also help, of course, is a break for our part of the world. I mean, of course, our Brazilian friends are lucky. Or even, you know, South African and Chinese friends, they're not neighbors to countries that are no longer functioning states, you know, such as Syria. Clearly that's an issue. But despite that, I think prospects are strong. We're going to continue to attract decent level of FDI. You know, a lot of the conversation around emerging markets is the manufacturing opportunity. And every government is putting out programs and policies to encourage manufacturing, including the government in India that aspires for the share of manufacturing to be about 25% of GDP. But how realistic is that? And how relevant is that for the times that we live in today? And Mr. Oshkin, let me ask you this, because I'll put forward to you findings of an A.T. Kearney report, which talks about the future of production. So 25% of the countries that account for over 75% of global manufacturing are well positioned to increase their share in the future. And a country like Russia doesn't figure in that. So then does manufacturing become the priority for you? Or do you intend then to focus more on services? And what kind of a challenge does that throw up? The Russian economy is economy with per capita GDP, which is well above the global average. It's well-developed economy. So the share of manufacturing within Russia's GDP is only 12%. Of course, this is one of the priorities here, but we clearly understand that only by using manufacturing, we will not achieve strong groceries because of the small share in GDP. But what is important is that manufacturing is one of the core industries, which create a lot of industries around it, create the services sector. So creating such core industries, creating competition in aircraft making, other stories where we... So will you focus on high-end manufacturing? Of course, of course. Okay, and that's the way. And what about the services sector? Because do you feel that for Russia today that would be more relevant in terms of a growth driver? Yes, and one of the priorities for the coming years is a substantial increase in the quality of life for the Russian population. And it also means that a lot of small and medium-sized businesses should grow around this trend, improving Russian cities, improving how the SMEs are performing in those cities. So this will be one of the main growth trends for the first coming years and supporting the higher GDP figures. You know, we just heard that... I'll just come to you, Mr. Lin, in a second. But in South Africa, how much of the focus from a government perspective is on education, investing in education skills, because that is what is going to be relevant as you look at being part of the global economy as we move towards more disruptive technologies. And if you do aspire to get a share of the manufacturing pie. We are one of the countries that are spending a lot of... That are investing a lot on education in South Africa. We have, over the last few years, invested a lot on elementary education, primary education, primary education, right up to the commitment we've recently made towards higher education to expand access. A lot of our universities have opened up spaces for students, especially from poor and working class backgrounds. And we've invested a lot of money in technical and vocational training and education. The challenge remains, the throughput, the challenge remains, ensuring that the outcomes at the end match the investment done at the end. But at a more qualitative level, the challenge remains, ensuring that the quality of the skills that are produced at the end of the process matches the modern economy and the direction towards which the global economy is moving, as well as the South African economy itself. So we are paying a great deal of attention to upgrading our education system, focusing on its transformation, ensuring that we can meet the challenges of the new economy. And for us to achieve that, we need not only the government to focus on formulating the policies, we need to partner with the private sector, learn from international best practice, how other countries are managing this challenge, and ensure that the discussions are around artificial intelligence, digitalization, and other such issues filter. Is that a priority for your government? Disruptive technologies, and how do you actually cope with the impact of disruptive technologies, whether it's AI or 3D or printing and so on and so forth? How much of that consumes your political bandwidth? Well, it is a priority now because the 54th National Conference of the Ruling Party directed us to establish a commission on the 4th Industrial Revolution and digitalization. And so it's an area we're going to pay a great deal of attention to. We know that we don't have much time to catch up. We know that there are significant challenges facing our economy in that it's still very much predicated on primary production, on the minerals energy complex, and we need to shift it towards not only manufacturing, but catching up with the digitalization technologies which are coming up in other countries. So our education system must catch up. We need to, we still need to achieve a 1% investment in research and development. And so there's a lot of work that we need to do. But South Africa is not a country that is short of resources. We are a country that has not deployed its resources as well as we should in order to achieve the goals that are going to uplift the quality of life of our people and put us on par with other countries. Justin, then you wanted to come in on the point on manufacturing and services. Right, I'd like to come back to the issue. Manufacturing or services? It's a strategy of development. I think that in the last decades, there was a debate in the global development community and academic circle. At that time, they think, because the opportunity of information services is unnecessary to go through manufacturing stage of development. And one good example was India. That information services has been one of the major exporting sectors of India. But they look carefully. They were very successful in information services, but it directly creates two million jobs because income for people in that sector was much higher, so they consume more. And indirectly, it generated another five million jobs, altogether seven million. China, without own manufacturing. And how many jobs China employ in the manufacturing sectors? 124 million. Population size in China and India is similar. And by manufacturing, China has 124 million jobs. And in the life manufacturing alone, you mentioned 85 million jobs. So I think that was the reason that India's... If you compare China and India in 1978, China started a transition. India's Pageta GDP was 25% higher than China. That's right. Now India's Pageta GDP is only 20% of China. And the main reason there was not so many jobs to accommodate the online migration of low-value-added agricultural workers to higher-value-added modern sectors. And I think that was the reason why Modi now, say, have a program to help make India and to go back to the manufacturing. Then the question is that if every country reached a target for 25% of their GDP in manufacturing, are we going to have a large enough global market to accommodate so many products from the industries? Here I'd like to mention the debate in the early 1980s when China started transition. Because before 1980s, certainly, East Asian Dragon Korea, Taiwan, China, Hong Kong, Singapore, they were the manufacturing center for live manufacturing goods. And at that time, China started to enter into the live manufacturing. And people think if China entered into the live manufacturing, can more accommodate the production from China. Because in the early 1980s, the job in manufacturing sectors in Korea was 2.3 million. In Taiwan, China, 1.5 million. Hong Kong, 1 million. And Singapore, half a million. And I mentioned in China, actually, 124 million jobs. And so people think a Chinese product cannot be accommodated by the global market. But here I'd like to mention, where is the manufacturing job? People's income increase. So they not only produce goods for other people. Creates consumer demand as well. They also consume the good. And also for the global market. And actually, many people only talk about the export from China. But actually, import from to China is almost growing at about the same rate. So I think that, you know, actually, the debate now has been, you know, over. I think that manufacturing is important for every country. And if you have opportunity for service, fine. But you cannot be great manufacturing. And I think that's the reason Modi now promote. Make in Africa. Make in India. Make in India. Make in India. No, no, no. Modi is not promoting. May they make in Africa? Because I have been involved so much in trying to promote. I think because Justin is really, you know, he's an African at heart and has looked at it. But I just wanted to add to that debate, that look. I mean, sometimes I think it's a false debate, you know, manufacturing or services. It's both. And I think that every country, every continent, you know, that should try to create good jobs, good manufacturing jobs. Yes, we have AI. We have automation that is coming down the line. But I think for the next generation, you know, at least until 2030, 2040, there's still this space where we will have to be producing goods, you know, that people will consume. And a lot of it will be done by labor rather than by robots. And in that regard, I think the African continent, you know, it should also work very hard. You know, it has been those countries that had a manufacturing sector have seen deindustrialization. Yeah. Jobs have been lost. In my country, we had a thriving textile sector. And over the decades of the 80s and 90s, we went from 600,000 jobs to 20,000, you know, because of competition from China, you know, South Africa lost about 75,000 jobs from electronics, electrical. And we are producing many raw materials and consumer goods. Why should we spend $34 billion on importing food on the continent? We can, you know, just add more value and create some manufacturing that will also employ our youth and produce good jobs and good income. Yes. No, I'll come back to the issue. Yes. I'll come back to you in just a second, Justin. Yes, go ahead. Yes. I think that we should look at the basics here. We have to, one, to create jobs. We have to employ the population. And number two, we have to balance the current account. And third, we have to increase the level of income. That's about the basic objectives. And having said that, evidently, industrialization is very important. And it's a serious part of this balance no one can, in the emerging market with large population, can really balance all of that without a strong industrial production base and so on and so forth. But having said that, it's also very important to emphasize the role of being competitive in sectors in which you have a competitive advantage, not necessarily only in some kind of manufacturing. For instance, India is a good example with technology, et cetera, et cetera, as it was mentioned. In the case of Brazil, there is a very interesting and important, also, example, is the use of technology in the agricultural production that Brazil, using only 9% of the territory last year, for instance, had a record production of grains being one of the first or second larger exporter in the globe, again, producing 242 million tons of grains. And all of that, with a heavier and heavier use of technology in the agricultural sector, that not only creates jobs as well, but also provides a strong boost to exports. Then what I am saying is true. We have to have a strong industrial basis. We are also working on that with productivity, measurement, improvements, et cetera, as we were discussing before. But also, we have to pay attention in what sector that economy can be more competitive. Focus on your capabilities and leverage your strengths. Yes, Mr. Simsek. I just want to add one point. I think emerging markets, many of them, of course, excluding China and some others, many of them face premature de-industrialization. So the share of industrial output in GDP, normally for countries in the catching up phase, should remain relatively strong, whether that's 25%. But it should be over 20%. But for many countries, it's actually under 20%. And that's actually quite a risk considering circumstances. Going forward, we do talk about technology. But technology usually in sectors where technology is significant, and of course with artificial intelligence, you're going to get probably less jobs with those type of sectors. It's very clear. The other day I saw a social media message. If you go back to top three automotive companies, they generate annually $250 billion of revenue with 1.2 million employees. But top three tech companies that generate $247 billion of revenue only does that with 137,000 employees. So clearly, I agree with my again friend from Brazil, clearly we need to have a much broader, a comprehensive approach. And I think the governments in emerging market need to have a more interventionist industrial policy in the sense that we need to support, we should avoid premature de-industrialization. That's what we're trying to do in Turkey. So Ashken, let me come to you now because one of the other important imperatives for emerging markets is going to be when you talk about enhancing competitiveness is linking competitiveness to innovation. And if you look at all the data, the competitive or highly competitive countries today are also the most innovative countries today. You're investing as part of your 2020 plan significantly in technology. That's going to be a big focus area for you. So what is the priority when it comes to enhancing innovation and linking that to your competitive advantage? Well, all the stories that will help us to change the structure of the labor market because you know that in the demography station that we have, we need to have less jobs which can be automated and we need to have more jobs which will bring more value. And the jobs of higher quality will mean higher wages, will mean higher consumer demand and it will mean a strong economy. Yeah, I just wanted to shift the conversation a bit and say this, I mean, we're focusing, everyone is feeling relief now because global growth is back. You know, developed countries are doing better, emerging markets are doing better, et cetera. And I'm afraid, you know, we may start losing again the lessons that are coming from this period. And I want us to talk a little bit about, you know, how they share, who shares in this growth? The issue of which emerging markets are succeeding and which are not, McKinsey is just coming out to the new study showing that emerging markets are expected, they contributed 62% of global growth in the past 15 years and the projection is that to 2030 they will continue but the 18 most successful ones are those who managed to grow and share the benefits of growth. You know, among workers as well as investors, among workers wages doubled and you know, the companies also saw profits, governments were able to tax better and redistribute, savings went up. So I think it's not just about growth and innovation but the quality of the growth as Justin and the redistributive policies where many countries have been failing. I think that is crucial and we must keep that at the center of the conversation. You're absolutely right and Justin, I want you to pick up on that. The idea of inclusion, the idea of improving the quality of growth that you just talked about in your opening comments, you know, and this is a challenge that is going to be faced by most emerging market economies. How do you move your per capita income up? I mean, India is grappling with that issue at this point in time. You know, what are the imperatives that policymakers will need to focus on as we move forward from an inclusion perspective? I think that it related at debate in the 1980s, 1990s. At the time, most people think once you have market, everything will happen spontaneously and only good things. However, if you want to have high quality growth, inclusive growth, certainly on the one hand, you should rely on markets, provide incentive for entrepreneurs, but at the same time, you also need to have... Safety net. Enabling government to facilitate the growth in a direction that can be inclusive, in a direction that will not only have a quantitative expansion, but also with quality enhancement. And you know, I'd like to come back to, you know, the discussion about in the 1980s, 1990s, that job lost in a textile government sector in Nigeria and electronic sectors in South Africa and so on. Actually, that related to the development model at that time. At that time, we have a lot of talk about trade liberalization. You remove the trade barriers and that you deep the market to take care of everything. As a result, how can you compete with the Chinese export? Because as you mentioned, infrastructure was poor. Visit environment was not good enough. Education cannot really, you know, help the worker to acquire new technologies. But fortunately, China in this transition process, on the one hand, allowed the market to play increasingly important role, but the government always play a very proactive facilitation role. In some format that, you know, the industrial policy that Deputy Prime Minister Turkey in our mansion. So I think that certainly there are many challenges in the world, but for me, one of the important challenges that we need to have a reflection of the model that we use to elaborate and to gain some more insight so we can really make the growth inclusive with high quality benefit everyone in the coming year, including the artificial intelligentsia and so on, those kind of new technology available. Absolutely, yes. Yes, quick comments. I'll come round and then I'll come to the floor for questions. Yes, go ahead. You know, I also want to add another dimension to the discussion on inclusion. Inclusion not within countries, but inclusion between countries. I think one of the positive prospects, especially for Southern Africa or specifically for South Africa today is the political transition, the changes taking place in Zimbabwe and in Angola because those are big economies and Zimbabwe promises that if the transition is followed through successfully and significant structural reforms are implemented and political reforms in that country, it would have a great benefit not only for the people of Zimbabwe but for the people of Southern Africa. And so when we talk about inclusion, we need not focus only on what happens at a country level but you must also look at how that inclusion is shared and distributed across the regions so that everybody is brought on board. And that would have an impact on the migration patterns. It's not going to stop them. As anybody who asks me whether migration patterns between South Africa and Zimbabwe are going to stop now because of the changes taking place in Zimbabwe, my answer is simply no. The two countries are too closely intertwined for migration patterns to be reversed but what we need to do is to manage it properly so that the benefits of the changes of the economic development are then shared equitably among the people. More coordinated action is what you're suggesting. So we saw that happen post the 2008 financial crisis where central bankers moved in a much more coordinated fashion. You're saying that governments, when it comes to even things like fiscal policy, et cetera, should move in a much more coordinated fashion. Yes, sir. Go ahead. Sorry. Yes, I would like to come back to the point of inclusive growth. Evidently, it's critical that we have inclusion, we have income distribution and we increase the national level of income at the same time. And having said that, I think that the direction here is one of first developing and giving incentives to the most productive sectors of the economy in a way that you don't create artificial sectors, artificial industries subsidized because that has proven not to be... Viable or sustainable. Number two, the moment you do that, then you create as balanced as possible growth and creating as many as possible jobs. And having said that, it's also important to complement that with social programs. For instance, programs which would pay a basic salary for people who are not prepared to get into the formal market, for instance, because lack of education, historical reasons, et cetera. And then the second step after that being done and those persons not only joining the consumer market, but being able to send their children to school. And then it's very important to provide also an additional program to support and give incentives for all these children who then go to school, who learn and become more and more part of the production line, et cetera. And then that in due time, you increase the national level of income, but also the inclusion element is present. Yes, Mr. Simsek. I think regarding inclusiveness, at least in our part of the world, but probably for most emerging markets, there are three important aspects. One is women. Labor participation rate in Turkey among females have gone up by 10 percentage points, but we're still well below OECD and EU averages. So clearly investment in educating women and providing incentives for higher labor participation and higher strong support for women entrepreneurs is one area where you enhance inclusiveness. The other one is SMEs. Yes. I know our Brazilian friends have done good reforms. Last year, we introduced a major credit guarantee scheme and it worked really successfully. 203,000 companies benefited. So Treasury stepped in with very low MPLs, very low fiscal cost, and it was very successful. We brought on board access to finance for SMEs. It's absolutely critical. Finally, I think for emerging markets, it's clearly important to set up the right mechanism to support startups, including literally support for venture capital, business angels, crowdfunding, investment banks that will be willing to support negative cash flow companies for a while because the new economy clearly requires that type of support mechanisms. That would certainly help, again, make you more competitive. Okay, thank you very much for your comments, we're completely out of time, so I'm gonna give everyone 10 seconds and let me start by asking you, Justin, and what's the one thing that worries you most when you go to bed at night about global growth, global economy, China? Well, I think of what worked me the most. President Trump. It's a wrong idea prevailed in the world and leading us to a wrong direction and a catastrophe result. The one thing that keeps you up at night? Failure to sustain the momentum of growth. If the leadership of emerging markets, if the world leadership fails, if we drop the ball and fail to sustain the momentum and learn the lessons from how we got to the global downturn we and repeat the mistakes that got us to where we are now, to where we were just a few months ago, then we then would have failed dismally in our responsibility as the leadership. So we must sustain the momentum for growth. Must sustain the momentum for growth? Inequality, those who have been left behind and the insensitivity of many of us, policymakers and others, to the impact of that on people's lives, that's what keeps me awake at night. I think that the basic challenge for us and for the future is to keep a consistency over time on job inclusion and productivity in the sense that we have to increase the capacity of the country to grow and create more and better jobs. That's the secret and the critical idea here, the consistency over time not to have policies come in and out. Mrs. Sintek? Well, specifically for us, it's geopolitics, moving away from multilateralism rule-based system to what we seem to be heading. And clearly also, I think it would be terrible if we can't prevent clash of civilizations. Mr. Oshkin, I'll close with you. Quality of life in Russian cities, because in order to be competitive in the 5, 10, 15 years from now, we need to keep top talent in Russia, we need to attract top talent to Russia, so the quality of life is the crucial. Well, we hope that some of the ideas that we talked about here today, collaboration, inclusion, innovation, consistency, predictability of policy, and of course the tough reform measures that each one of you is hoping to undertake in your own markets do in fact go through and we keep the ball rolling, so to speak, and don't let it drop. Let's hope the momentum continues and the recovery gets only stronger. Thank you very much for joining us here this evening for this panel. Appreciate your time. Thanks very much again. Thank you very much, ladies and gentlemen.