 Good afternoon and welcome to the non-farm payrolls webinar live event with me David Madden Today's date is Friday the 10th of January 2020 and the time has just gone 13 15 GMT and this week's Event is going to be an interesting one before we get into the details of the numbers and what's been gone so far I've got to go through the process of showing you the basic risk warning slides It's all pretty straightforward. If you regularly attend our Live webinars or watch our videos or fit into one of our live seminars You know what they're all about it essentially states anything that's covered in these webinars I really events we hold our videos are cannot be construed as explicit trading or investment advice It's merely just my own kind of commentary pause views and opinions and Feel free to have your own The chat box is there for even if you can feel free to just type in by the comment All right asking me a question, which I've happened to answer as the trading as the webinar goes on and All we're going to do today is basically take a look at what's been going on the state of the US economy Have a look at The how markets have been behaving the last few days where the numbers come out and At half past the hour with any look with any Reaction to the numbers first and foremost, but also take you know wondering, you know, what kind of moves can we expect to copy out of this? Now if you cast your minds back to last month's job support, it was fantastic It was basically what I would give it an a1, you know We saw the headline figure came in a well above expectations 266,000 jobs were created Great number in for November well above market expectations. So that's one the previous The previous month's number the week the October reading was giving a healthy revision upwards So that another start for that the unemployment rate dropped back to 3.5 percent. So a joint 50 year low and we also saw a tick higher in Average earnings as well. So average earnings are at 3.1 percent that in itself is decent because it's well above the CPI inflation level in the US So so American workers are a scenario whereby they're basically in jobs We're probably not a million miles away dare. I say from full employment If you're at three three and a half percent in terms of unemployment rate It's going to be you know, you're not going to get that much lower in terms of you know Chipping away at 3.4 3.3 so on support so They all point so Americans are in jobs and they're earning decent and they're earning decent They're earning decent money because the wages that they're getting the rate of which increased wages are increasing comfortably outstrips The cost of living so things are good on that front. And if you take a look at the recent kind of in any earnings indicators and employment indicators you see in recently in the ISM manufacturing Reading we can see at the ISM that manufacturing in the US as a sector continues to be weak That's an issue But if you look inside the manufacturing sector itself In the overall manufacturing reading ISM manufacturing We printed it or you know last week printed a fresh 10 year low and within side that the earnings component was weak It was given a 45 point one, which is also you know, I do 10 year low So manufacturing is clearly weak, but you know, that's only one portion of the overall US economy If you take a look at the numbers that come up this week, if you take a look at the ADP ADP ADP private employment role, we can see that in the month of December 202,202,000 jobs were created. That's a strong figure You know, we often heard economists say over the years the United States needs to be adding basically at least 200,000 jobs per per month for the economy to keep moving along So over 200,000 jobs, that was a decent number. I keep in mind Economists were expecting only 160,000 jobs to be created. So it's a decent number and on top of that It is a fairly decent beat on terms of expectations adding to that the the previous month's reading the October reading was revives higher to 124,000 from the from the initial reading, which is pretty pro to be honest of 67,000. So once again, it's at the headline beats and comfortably and in a decent revision to the upward. So The latest ADP has been good If you take a look at yesterday's initial jobless claims We're talking about in the region of became in at 214,000 keep, you know, the the previous weeks the previous week's number was 223,000 which was revised down 222,000, so it fell from 222 to 214,000, which isn't a massive drop. But keep in mind economists were expecting a reading of 220,000. So better expected, so it's a fall which is good and it's also better expected, which is also good You know, I kind of view the initial jobless claims rate and the unemployment rate kind of in the same vein in that, you know They don't really kind of seem to kind of move around a whole lot in that I'm taking the jobless claimage rate You know, the most recent low was a couple of years a few months ago And it wasn't that much, it wasn't that much below 22,000, you know Any kind of initial jobless claims rate, if you've seen, they haven't really come that far below 200,000. Like when a few occasions, the unemployment rate has dropped down to 3.5%. It's gotten down down there on a few occasions It might maybe ticked up ever so slightly by one tenth of one percent, whatever it may be, but hasn't really kind of strayed away So it tells me that That as far as things go and possibly to do with the wages that are being offered by the US employers They're kind of Not much making, they're not making it any more progress If you were to look at a long-term chart of how things panned out in terms of the jobs market in the US Safe in 2012 to 2014 onwards, you see a steady decline, but it seemed to be in the leveling off period now and that's possibly just because You know The US economy is doing well third quarter GDP was stronger than second quarter GDP We've you know, the three rate costs at the Federal Reserve had reduced Between June and October, they've yet to fully kind of trickle down the economy You can argue that the the October cost probably isn't going to trickle down and tell about April or June this year and so on and so forth So it's still a lot a lot more ground to go but in terms of What the the real true shape of the US economy? But it seems to me that the employment the jobs market is kind of capping out unless earnings kicks in And we do and if you see decent increase in earnings, what I've just done There's a flip over to the voters terminal which I have which I have accessed Which I've accessed to and I've accessed it on the website. So you can see here Uh, I talked you through the second the actual upwards Expected Expecting for the this week's employment Number and the likes and this this this week's jobs figures, but I want to finish the point of that Unless employers start offering that much more wages, we're probably not going to see see get new people and jobs. It's almost like When you get to the point of a full employment We get to the point where everyone who wants to be in the job is in the job It's difficult to get to get more people in work basically And unless you let us see a scenario where my people are actually you know wages Start to start to have a decent increase in Further from what we are But then we actually see more more actually jobs being created and more more kind of vacancies being filled And seeing as unemployment isn't really dropping any lower and wages aren't really growing any real higher It tells me that we're probably getting close to full employment in my view Perhaps I'm wrong, but that's the way I see kind of how things go Perhaps in four six months down the line when the interest rate cuts from last year kick in and then that that spurs on further Further economic activity, but We'll see how that plays out looking at the What we're expecting So we're expecting this in this report. It's coming out just over three minutes time 164,000 jobs to be added keep mined last week last but rather last month 266,000 jobs to rather so last week's number was a monster number The jobless rate unemployment rate is tipped a whole steady and a joint 50 year low of 3.5 percent And the number I'm probably paying most attention to is the average earnings average earnings of 3.1 percent Is supposed to remain unchanged now for me to get a to give to give a What I will call an a star or an a1 In a jobs report you want to see the headline number coming in above expectations You want to see Ideally a positive revision to the previous month's number. You want to see a fall in unemployment and you want to see an increase in wages And all of which better All of which exceed the expectations I suspect you know It's going to be it's going to be a difficult one to to my view You know my my my guess is 180,000 feel free to type in the type in the box what you think Your your prediction is going to be I'm going to go 108,000 On the on the rate. I think it's you know, we've seen a lot of in recent months We've seen a lot of jobless our headline figures come in sub 200 sub 200,000. So I think it's going to be Below 200,000 but still these are looking pretty good shift the US economy. So I think it's probably better than 164 You know, whatever your views are feel free to kind of tap in the box there and we can just kind of Read some numbers out. We can do a bit of comparing the contrasting As much as I'd like to see the 266,000 figure being revised higher. I don't think we're going to get it To be honest, I'll take it as a win if it remains unchanged or even If it only gets revised lower by 10 or 20,000 because you know creating over 240 jobs Over 230,000 jobs will still be, uh, you know an impressive feat The on the plunge rate on my view is probably going to it's probably going to stand still Most likely stand still possibly tick higher I'd be surprised if you go down any lower me, you know, I don't see it's got a 3.3. Maybe 3.4 But you know, it's earnings, you know, I'd like to see earnings come in a 2.3.2 or Or 3.3 ID, you know, because you know when people work when people are earned more they don't spend more That's really what lies on the economy, you know, like I was saying feel free if you're listening out there to type in the box what you think Your your view is whether we're going to see, um, you know, are we going to see more than 164? Are we going to see more than 200,000? Are we going to see something like 100,000? Um, it's also we're done in which we will cover in a few minutes We also afterwards we will have the canadian numbers out the canadian rate is tipped to Pull back from 5.9 to 5.8 percent On the employment change Remember last year that last month it dropped by over 71,000 now we're supposed to swing around to positive 25,000 so I would be covering that and we'll be looking at dollar cat because those of you who listen to the videos that we produce Every week you will see, um, we will see how things pan out. Oh, it's we're coming down to the last Yes, call I've I will cover Golden silver given that way are 12 seconds away from the numbers. I will then um, I will then Um, I'll have a look at the numbers. I'll have a look at the gold silver afterwards. So I'm guessing 180 145 Okay, that's um, it's a good number. It's an okay number. Not particularly impressive 145 Slight revision down by 10,000 on our last month's standard number down to 256 Which is all right. I'd take that, you know, if we combine the two on four five two five six That's there. There are about 400,000 divide that by two over 200,000 So on average in the last two months the us created 200,000 jobs each month Like I said at the beginning of the webinar I was saying if the us economy keeps turning up 200,000 jobs on average That's pretty good. So that's pretty good unemployment rate As it is it's very boring health steady at 3.5 percent a joint 50 year low Oh and on the earnings front, that's a bit of disappointment on the earnings front average earnings increased by 2.9 percent Which you know below the forecast of 3.1 and the drop off from the previous 3.1 I would say this is a Slightly softish report. So if we look at the numbers as an entirety the headline figure came in Was obviously a big drop off in the last month. The last month was monster Was a big was a big drop off Last month's number, which is to be expected below expectations. It's an okay number through expectations slight downward revision to that So that's all right and the earnings could you know unemployment in line unchanged average earnings on a yearly basis Cool ever saw slightly average earnings on a month-on-month basis you know Dropped ever so slightly and dropped on the month and missed expectations. I would suggest that this is slightly Slightly negative, but that's a slightly poor, you know, this is for me It kind of can know it maybe a low b perhaps or maybe even a c Maybe a low b a b-minus in terms of an update, you know, so it's not terrible But it's not particularly impressive to be perfectly honest We look at c a gentleman there was asking about how things are going to go for gold and silver My guess is that this would be actually be slightly positive Um for both gold and silver keep in mind. I started out. Oh, that's copper I'll start off with the gold market keep in mind gold Head of basically a fresh six-year high Um only only during the week on the back of the Iran tensions So the wider view has been to the upside multi month multi-year high achieved here. We're pushing that lower here and I was keeping an eye on the kind of one about the 15 to 55 area because There thereabouts was the high achieved in september And if you also scroll back All the way to 2013 it was kind of there thereabouts a low in february 2013. So we're not too far away from this So we're not too far away from that, you know, it was a so the so that level is very significant from from february 13 It was significant in september 2019 and if you look at now, we're currently trading pretty much on it So we've had that we've had the massive move to the upside We've had the pullback We're struggling there there about a 15 55 if we can hold in around if we can get back about 15 55 and hold that That line we could look to kind of rebuild that that support a 15 55 and then press down higher from here And then of course if you go beyond that We're going to be looking at a medium term view up towards 15 90 up towards 1600, you know, of course about the psychological number My instant reaction was that this is going to be Positive for gold. I could be wrong, but that's that's just my view I'll see what the price action has been it has moved to the upside, but you know to be perfectly honest I've seen some returns not if I'm payrolls Within 10 or 15 minutes or half an hour of the numbers coming out and everything gets digested Can't turn around but I still maintain the views. This is ever so slightly positive for gold because that's basic Part of the reason why gold was so was Setting off because the Iranian fear has disappeared and everyone was fighting against stocks If stocks do start to pull back a small bit because people go, you know, what maybe the US economy isn't an amazing ship We've had record highs on the US industry yesterday Let's take some cash off the table and let's buy, you know, the classic rotation into gold So we could see a move higher in gold over the next week or so So and if you look at say a short of the term charting 100 What are one hour chart? We can see here that the 200 hour moving average along here provided nice support in that area in our 15 40 We're now currently sitting around going to 50 56 if you can hold above that metric there We could be looking heading back towards 15 60 We can see in a few occasions that area active at resistance and then if you press entire from there This is the consolidation in the kind of 15 80 zone I'll also be taking a look obviously be like, you know, I only got time to it I would look at the indices. I would like to get the major taller crosses. So anyone else feel free to feel free to Stick in the box what market is looking at You'll be to look at but I will be covering the big ones similar view and gold Gold's been pressing higher since very since mid-December We've seen because of the Iranian tensions hit a metric last level last seen in September. So, you know, we hit we hit say Four month highs this this week a bit of a correction because of the Iranian fear subsided, but I do think this This this these payrolls are going to positive for gold So I think the wider trend is still still in play I've said that the more the last few months or few weeks has been positive And that's my view still in play, especially if you continue to hold above the of the recent lows in around 17 spot 80 If if you continue to press and press an higher from here, you could be heading back up towards 14 sorry 18 spot 4 Now take a look at an hourly chart if you can see closer kind of intervals See what sort of thing about silver versus gold We can see previously at the I'm looking at an hourly chart here on this red line here 200 hour moving average Actually decent support for gold for silver for quite some time And but and it actually the support here nicely But as soon as the market turned negative the market is failing to get back up on this If you trade in silver first thing we first like to see the silver market get back above The 200 hour moving average in it just north in at 18 spot 0 3 And if you go beyond that we could be looking at 18 spot 2 You know, we could see here acted as a support and resistance And then press beyond move beyond that could take us up towards 18 spot 4 18 spot 60 But if you do imagine to turn over on itself I take out the recent lows here In around 8 17 spot 84 70 spot 80 We could be likely heading back down towards 70 70 70 or up toward this area here in around the 17 spot 37 I'll tell answers your questions in relation to gold and silver And I'll take a look at some of the likes of the other footsie Like I said, I'm going to be running through some of the big indices some of the big currency pairs But there's anything else you want to comment on feel free then there's no need to be going to be shy in relation to this So we're taking a look at the first 200 I would suggest that the report Is ever so slightly negative for stock markets, you know, there's nothing to get really overly excited about So I think we might see we could shift a small bit lower But you know in the near term the next few hours to keep mind Let's just look where we came from, you know If this is the first 200 the broadly be moving higher since October At the end of last month we hit multi-month highs Highs that last seen since last summer so the trend is very much the upside post Iranian tensions fading We've seen the market gain pretty much most of the ground it pulled back I would be looking at the S&P next The market pulled back most of the ground it lost because of the Iranian fears I think In the kind of one the next few days we could press on higher from here in the next day or so We probably could just drift a bit lower. It could be better profit taken because of the the the bullet sentiment could fade a little Or they can then say next week or so we could be looking back at retesting The retesting the highs of December and then she would go beyond that we could be attacking this zone here The up towards the july highs It's only I don't really get worried if you have a size of break below kind of 7500 down to 7468 This kind of zone here. So I really have a decent break below that Good, then you get a bit get worried and even then We could see support coming at the play from this blue line here the 50 moving average just north of 7400 I keep in mind the footsie is probably one of the weaker uh indices On the kind of looking like european point of view you're from the european and american point of view S&P 500, you know that despite the fact take a look at the initial reaction to it To the figure as you can see here when the numbers came off It's by the volatility appears to be actually ever so slightly I go right down to the um So the initial reaction was negative then the market moved higher then the market moved lower again The long of the shorter that is we seem to be ever so slightly below where we where we were when the numbers came out I would suggest But today may not be a fantastic day of the SP bonders, but keep in mind we've had we've had fantastic days Where by the mark has been ranking up all-time highs So if we take a look at the the daily chart The big the big picture view at the mark is still very much an upward trend You know a report like this is my view Is it is not not it's okay above average It'll be the kind of report that might encourage a bit of profit taking or a bit of Are there is a report that would necessarily encourage people to kind of actively necessarily going to buy straight in malaggressively But it's it's not that it's not so bad that it would turn around the sentiment, you know, so I think it's it's okay Um, but you're a spear comparing it to days of previous all-time highs. It's not amazing. It's not amazing But if the why they're going to trend, um, it's very much in play if you if you get if you get back above 3280, you know Um, I have a decent move beyond that. We could be like you're targeting 3290 and then of course kind of psychology important uh, 3300 is the big one level to watch out for You know, so if we're still in party, it's like clearly kind of in a kind of wide rougher trend here This is the daily chart, you know, you can see here But this is when the kind of the market began to kind of turn around in the wake of the um When around it essentially stated that they weren't interested in the work Along with the united states just really retaliate. So the market regained all those all of all of the losses And but I should go on to kind of press on to all-time highs See even if you do put a push a bit lower from here support could be found from this blue line here The one where they move the average you can see it acting as support. Um in previous, you know, only uh, only yesterday And now come into play in around 3267 and if you go below that go some consolidation in this zone here in around 3260, you know, it's again a pre is an area of previous um previous resistance um, and so and also It's on consolidation in that area only yesterday at last night So I think the view is still it's still very much in play It's still very much to the upside Even it's only really if we actually they have a decent break below 3200 or the lows of wednesday uh in a 3188 You know, it's only really if you have a decent break below that Because then we'd be thinking you know what we need to actually get out of here and take a look at something else um I've covered gold and silver I covered the fussy and the s&p 500 are there any other markets You would like me to cover because I've been looking to uh to wrap things up in the next few minutes So absolutely feel free Now we take a look at the I'll say what's going on on the you know, the currency markets are pretty quiet To be fair, I'll take a look what's going on on the um On the euro versus the u.s. Dollar Euro please. Yep. No worries coming up Like I like I was saying It's not a great report. So right on the right on the numbers. We saw the euro jolt higher versus the versus the um the u.s. Dollar it's So if you take a look from Early October onwards, it's been broadly been moving higher nothing to get too excited about there's no really clear pattern here It wasn't that one. I'll go the dollar index itself Was that a multi multi multi month low? Kind of four or five month low So things are too great on the dollar and today's this report isn't gonna be anything special It isn't it is it's not any special. So you could see a bit of weak continued weakness in the greenback um Yes, I come back to you in a second in relation to the s and p 500 um I see if you can hold above the fifth movie average on euro dollar which comes into play in a one spot 10 um 90 once by 10 91 If you can hold above that and you can also hold above the one or two movie average Which comes into play in a one spot 10 64 if you can hold about that I think the kind of broader upward trend that's been in play for a few months is going to continue That should that be the case we can head back up towards the kind of 112 area And then if you take off the highs that were achieved in a new receive We um, we could be looking hanging back towards this zone here in a one spot 12 49 Uh, it's only really if you're going to have a decent move below the water to move the average Could then we've been looking heading back down towards the uh the 110 zone Right, I'm going to come on to the s and p 500 levels again And then look to kind of wrap things up. So if there are any last minute requests in terms of price act in terms of um In terms of levels to keep an eye out for Our markets to comment on please um, please uh mess with me now So If we do drift a bit lower on the s and p 500 we could be like you heading back towards 3267 If you do have a decent move below that Um, we could also be heading back down towards 3200 and 60. So 3200 and 67 3260 And if even if you go below that we could be heading back down towards 3200 and 40 there they're about I don't only start to get worried about the um, the s and p 500 if you break below this area here in around 3180 other than that, I think the kind of wider upward trend is going to continue I'm not totally sure if we've finished in the positive territory today. It might be a bit of a quiet day Um Or if you do it could be only a small it's my small game and the s and p 500 It's not a particularly impressive jobs number But I think before we're going to be in a few days time I would not be surprised if we're up at 3290 or even beyond towards 3300 in the next couple of weeks I'll take shall I take a look at um, I'll take a look at pound versus the left dollar um They would like to wrap things up. So the wider view on pound or the pound versus us dollar Sterling versus us dollars in broadly moving higher for the last number of months. Um, this year Was the jolt on october 10th about about the uk striking the an exit deal With the european union This year was the general election joel tire where the market jolt but higher And then give a pull back to this kind of consolidation zone here And now we appear to be at the point of a higher high a higher now and potentially a higher high again You know, so it appears to be while we hold above this Fifth and moving average the blue line in which is basically at 130 big psychological number as well So make adding more credence to the importance of that number Uh, if we could hold above that level we could then be looking head back towards 132 Then we call beyond that we can head up apologies up towards kind of 130 once about 32 84 to kind of late, um December high and if you go beyond that you can head up towards the kind of 135 zone on euro dollar It's only really if up your head if you have a size of break back below 124 could then actually look to get a bit nervous Uh, I my apologies. I forgot about the canadian numbers I'm so sorry for those who are interested in dollar cad Uh, uh, it's decent numbers out of canada. Uh, the old law which rate fell from 5.9 to 5.6 Better than expected because they're expecting 5.8 and on the employment change front The previous month's number was negative 71,200. They're expecting it to be positive 25,000 But it's in fact positive by 30 by 35,200 So it was a better it was a nice turn around And exceeded expectations. So things are looking fairly decent on that front So I would suggest that as strong for dollar cats I'll just imagine that us dollar the canadian dollar is in the red right now or at the very least only showing a small gain So there we go dollar cad down a tense So I apologize. He's down Nearly two tenths of one percent So if anyone trading that currency pair keep an eye out on dollar cad We can see here once the numbers came out. There was a sharp sell-off On the back of that. This is the bar here Not you know mediocre and a slightly good u.s numbers coupled with strong canadian numbers. We see a decent sell-off here You know, I'm fully aware that we've had a Broadly speaking and moved to the upside in the dollar cad in the last few sessions As you can see here, we're positive going into it. The market was pushing higher here But it kind of seemed to kind of topped out in around the kind of one spot 31 zone So It would you know It would seem to me that this we could be at the point where We were this the beginning of our next leg lower and dollar cat dollar cat has been pushing lower since december in a 14 month low On chris and new years eve Then we had the market bounce back bullish engulfing here But no one's had the market But it got up to kind of one spot 31 zone. It couldn't hold it and now we seem to be seeing Possibility of a formation of a golfing of an golf bullish version golfing happening here This could be the point where dollar cad Because it kind of continues in its wider downward trend heads back towards 130 And then back down towards the lows of december and then that then back down towards one spot 29 64 should that be the case Right, we've got it's coming up now to 10 you know, it's coming up now to 13 50 gmt So i'm going to look to wrap things up there I do appreciate all those who um who tuned in and listened to our webinar Feel free to join us for next month's webinar and also This video is a recording of this webinar. That's going to be on our youtube channel So please subscribe to that. It's also going to be published on our trading platform if on our trading platform If you go under news analysis click on insights this tab here for those of you who are on twitter I'll be tweeting it out as well and be retweeted by the cnc markets twitter The main twitter account as well. I would like to thank you again. Have a good trading week and good luck