 This is covering the spread part of the fan dual podcast network We have turned the calendar to November Which means we've got some impactful football coming up here in the very new future But a lot of those games the important games not on this week's slate We got a lot of weird games and tried to pick out the three most important games this week was a difficult task But I think they're interesting even if they're not like the highest profile matchup So pretty interesting games were to break down those with Ryan Williams getting his read on those games and his favorite Across week nine over at fan dual sportsbook This is covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm Join here once again by Ryan Williams check him out on Twitter at Ryan Alexander underscore W Ryan we're on to week number nine Halloween decorations going in the box Thanksgiving ones coming out here pretty soon. How you doing today? Oh, I'm doing great. Jim. I'm doing great We got week nine here. I can't believe how fast the season is flying by but you know We we get a couple more weeks here to to make ends meet as they say So we're just trying to push forward and get the best number on the lines and get action for people That they can be confident in and I'm sure that you were pretty sad to put away your Halloween decorations Given that you had the amari Cooper anytime touchdown the Tyler Boyd anytime touchdown You had the dot of the people's Jones yardage. So Halloween a good night for Ryan. We'll see if November Can be just as kind to him as well. We're break down week number nine here and train implications in just one second But first a reminder to make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast our college football week Number 10 preview podcast is up on the feed and up on the fangirl youtube page We talked about this week's biggest games including Tennessee versus Georgia with ben brown a pro football focus along with of course Dr. Ed Feng got their read on those games and other bets they like this week And also well of JJ Zachary's known tomorrow to break down player props for week nine in the NFL But get those as they are posted make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcasts Twisted tea and fandal have joined forces to bring you a one-of-a-kind contest series That gives you a chance to compete for your share of thousands of dollars in psych credit Introducing twisted tea is college football picks a sports betting focus contest series That's entirely free to play the contest is simple Each college football game will be assigned money line a spread and total markets with assigned points to each market All you have to do is make six selections based on those three markets and earn points For each correct selection you made if at the end of the day your score ranks among the best in the contest You'll be eligible for your share of psych credit head to fandal.com Slash twisted tea picks and make your picks and remember Please drink responsibly Let's turn the page now towards week number nine and begin things with the trade deadline from tuesday because ryan We saw 10 trades a new record for the number of trades at the trade deadline and I think when i'm updating my numbers every trade is going to be like have marginal Issue it's going to have like a marginal effect on those teams and it might not necessarily have a huge effect But I did want to ask you at least to get your read on this Were there any trades we saw Tuesday that actually tangibly impacted your guva team from a futures market perspective? No, not not really. Um, which feels weird because it was such an exciting day And I think that the you know, I think there's some trades that have a lot of implications Maybe going forward as we look at the 2023 season for example, let's talk about the jacksonville jackwars How are you guys going to finish out your season? What draft pick are you getting you get calvin ridley back next year? For full year if he's able to you know getting into otas and training camp in a full season after missing one So we could really be looking at that offense in a different light The bears, you know bringing in clay pool I think that shows that they invest in the offense a little bit now. We're looking at them having a high pick you know The elephant in the room is that they'll be drafting a receiver possibly another Ohio state guide to go along with justin fields there and then you're looking at You know ricky receiver with clay pool with darnel mooney Possibly some other moves there and hopefully they boost up the line So I think a lot of these things kind of set teams up for the future You know if we got to move like christian mccaffrey on Trade deadline day, you know that would be huge for the 49ers, but we already saw that kind of happen So we're really looking for like those stars or anything. It really you know was disappointing to see teams like the rams and uh the Uh the rams and uh the packers not do anything. Yeah Yeah, especially because like you know what the rams need They need juice and they didn't get any juice on at the trade deadline so That was disappointment but I didn't want to talk to you about your bears because they did make that clay pool trade and I thought that was pretty interesting and like the compensation is you know, we can talk about that But I think the the more the bigger takeaway for me is I took it as being an endorsement of justin fields Saying that we're going to give this guy a shot And I thought that that was my biggest takeaway from that trade was that they want to at least Give him the pieces to be successful Potentially, you know, give him a shot at that. Do you have a similar read on the clay pool trade where it was kind of saying? Hey Justin go prove to us. You deserve to be our long-term quarterback Sorry, I realized that was on mute there. Uh, yeah, I think I think I think that was the I think that was the case You've seen with luke getsy getting him involved in a little bit Of them going through the motions of just letting him run more a little bit more rpo So I thought David Montgomery might be moved. Um, so it was it was good to see them make this move here Yeah, absolutely. All right. Well, let's turn our focus towards week number nine in the nfl here and start things off With the bills at the jets the bills are 12 and a half point favorites total for this game Is it 46 and a half and this is I know it's a big total or a big spread I should say but this game is actually important because We've seen the jets struggle at times, but there's still a game and a half out in the ascs behind the bills So this game actually does matter. I feel like the bills actually have to like care about this game So I got to ask you ryan Can the jets keep this one close and potentially cover a large spread or is it just it's just buffalo's world and we're all trying to Trying to live in it. Yeah, I mean it is buffalo's world and we're all trying to live in it And you you know, this would be a little bit different for me I think had josh allen kind of gone out Last week and just really you know blown both the doors off there I'm in that match up against green bay on sunday night, but you look at him struggle You look at his history against the jets very successful there But it's still a 13 number right with the 12 and a half being the line there Which doesn't make you feel good about it. I think if I had a lean in this game I would really be looking at the under Because I just don't know how the jets, you know finish drives and get points out out here I mean the pressure rate for buffalo is strong zach wilson absolutely It's terrible with when he faces pressure So if you're looking at, you know, the jets may be getting, you know, 10 13 points here And even even if the buffalo bills are able to score 30 You're still looking at the under here on that number and that's kind of the lean that I would have here It may you know road road divisional opponent With the road team being favored by double digits doesn't make you feel good But again, it is josh allen and he's always able to kind of make things happen Zach wilson doesn't give you merit on the other side But I do think this defense for the jets is solid and if they can kind of just hold things Hold things pat Maybe it keeps it a little bit more of a competitive game getting Zach wilson's short fields and maybe they're kicking field goals to kind of help keep that number down And I think you're touching the key thing there where buffalo is one of the best teams in the league potentially the best team in the league generating pressure without blitzing because that means they don't need to dedicate resources to Blitzing Zach wilson to generate pressure and as you mentioned he I think last week I think he was like one of 14 like completing passes while under pressure, which is not ideal completion percentage is a very flawed stat, but that's not great Um, he had some good throws in that game But if he's if he's under pressure, you know, we've seen that he's not quite there yet to handle that and So I look at my numbers my numbers both my traditional model and my 2022 only model say Spend the jets. I can't get there. I can't do that. I'm not gonna do that. Um, it's like the nicks saving thing I'm not gonna so quit asking. That's me right now with this jets game because Big numbers have the potential to get out of hand And so even though I've got the jets as like eight and a half point underdogs in this game You think about the path to that like let's say they get down 10 early They're in a negative game script the entire game. So they could You know over whatever the average number the average loss could wind up being eight and a half points But it's about the median and the median is probably going to be bigger than 12 and a half So to me Yeah, I think I'd rather stay away from this game. Uh, just ignore it entirely I think that uh, the under makes sense given like I agree with you the jet defense is pretty good They've got playmakers, uh there and they've got a good defensive line that could potentially give some issues to this Buffalo offense line, which is not the strength of their team. So I think I agree with what you're saying there where if I were to I have not bet this game I will not bet this game I refuse to but if I were to I think the under would be the way to go here at 46 and a half Absolutely and just two quick things there off of that is what you know the buffalo side of things when we are betting You know a double digit favorite here We love buffalo because they put the foot on the throat They do not let up and especially with this being a divisional opponent. I imagine we'd see some of the same So that kind of makes me worry, but again on the jet side, you know with the defense And we've seen buffalo in the past, you know in these spots where they are just favored heavily You know They they sometimes can lay an egg or just not look as explosive I think that because Things were so easy for them against green bay and josh allen was the reason for the struggles I think he could bounce back here in a way But I say all that just to say that's even more reason why it's a stayaway line for me. Yeah, I very much agree So let's move on here to the chargers at the falcons the chargers three point favorites here total is 49 and a half and The falcons defense like we talk a lot about detroit's defense The falcons defense is in the same tier as them as far as being hideous So like we should probably highlight that and like that's a good situation for the chargers, but the chargers offense is maddening And they're super banged up Mike Williams will not play keenan allen didn't practice wednesday And I think he's probably gonna sit based on what he was saying on wednesday So it's a beat-up offense against a dog do defense. How do you see this game playing out? Yeah, I mean we love it the atlanta cover falcons. Um, they you know getting three They're at home and I've talked about the chargers at nauseam On the show with you gym How they were my super bowl favorite and how invested I am in them and even if I think you know More so getting the three points here because the chargers are a team that every every time they are in games like this It's a one-score game. It comes down to the last possession there So that kind of what lets me lean on the land of falcons, you know Plus three because it could be a situation where the land of falcons are you know Able to kind of you know, maybe they lose but they kick a field goal and they cut it down and it's a two or one point game Something weird like that, but like you said the chargers defense banged up the offense is you know They're going to be throwing out josh palmer and jerald evert now I will say those weapons with the secondary for atlanta And I'm not sure what the injury report shaping in that but they were they were banged up last week And so if guys like aj terrell and other guys in the secondary can't go You know herbert is the guy who can you know, they'll get echler involved He'll find josh palmer. He'll find jerald evert He'll find other guys on the roster like he's not one to just Mary to mike williams in keen and allen and that's it So that's kind of what would make you feel a little bit good about the chargers line here But they've just looked like such a shell a shell of themselves And you can tell that you know if they're not able to make something happen in this game We could start seeing them, you know just try and wrap the season up early and get healthy for next year Yeah, I know we had we talked on a couple weeks ago about the Seahawks cardinals game and I told you like how relieved I was to bet against the cardinals It was like such a a good feeling I feel the way betting against the chargers this week because like I've mentioned before that I built my like alternate model my 2022 only model because I thought my other model was too high on the chargers I was annoyed with it because they had this stupid offense where they Run this like stupid stupid stupid early down offense and then rely on jesson herbert to bail them out on third and fourth down I hate that It's not sustainable And so I built this other model the other model telling me to bet the falcons whatever I get that like, you know It's going to do that. It's tailored to like punish this team for being dumb but my 20 my like traditional model my like the model at like Should be high on the chargers Was very high on them preseason as you were as you mentioned that one also says to bet the falcons So if I have the the the model that like loves the chargers and I specifically am trying to get away from for 2023 Because it was too high on the chargers that one says it bet against the chargers I'm taking the falcons money line, baby. It's plus 140. There was a moment yesterday where When the keen and allen missed practice news came out The falcons money line went to 146 and like hold on like I've like what are we doing here? Like I've I've not had great success this year when I've gotten good closing line value So I'm not like, you know, it's it's I'm not like sweating the fact that it hasn't moved my favor yet, but like Don't move against me, please. It did go back to 140 overnight. So that's good. I feel a bit better about that But I I think the falcons are the right side here It's just fun to bet against the chargers right now Which means that Justin Harbert's going to do some Justin Harbert stuff and make me regret my words But you know what until sunday I'm gonna feel good about it and we're gonna bet against the chargers here and see what happens Absolutely. Yeah, well, I'm riding with you Jim. So everything that you said just makes me More confident in in the in the bed here in Atlanta It's just you know and and shout out to Arthur Smith and everything that they've done this year at the regime Because people counted this team out like it was nothing and now they're playing for possibly a win at the nfc south So, you know good kudos to them We are all in on a team that has marcus mariota quarterback and refused to throw what could go wrong Let's finish up here at the rams at the bucks bucks now three point favorites total is 42 and a half and both these offenses Have um underwhelmed quite a bit so far this year So we got the disappointment bull coming up on sunday ryan. Who you got winning this one? I'm going to the box here. I'm going to the bucks at raymond james. They're they're getting three here Talk about broken offenses this rams offense is just absolutely a shell of itself And like I said, I you know tried to warn people who were high on Matthew Stafford this year coming into the season best fall like the the surgery the you know The way that the offense was kind of shaping up no help outside of cooper cup, you know Alan robinson was there But you know, we seen him here in chicago and it just really didn't look the same and that is kind of you know Come to fruition here in this season and the backfield is an absolute mess Like I said, I was very shocked that they didn't make a move here At the running back position. We know that they tried to go out for christian mccaffrey They were there were talks about them getting the heme hinds things that nature camp camp acres Does he get moved does he not he's still on the team mcbay? Of course in trolling fashion talking about he could suit up for Sunday after all the cryptic tweets and everything that's going out. They're just a disaster And I mean what better, you know disaster on For the bucks on the other side who have been dealing with their own issues with the time brady news Coming out and I think that that probably might be a weight off of the shoulder Right, like that probably was the elephant in the room I'm gonna use that phrase again for the second time on the show But like now that that's just out there in the open and that's not You know a secret that everybody has to keep on the team and everything like that they can just focus on football I mean, this is like brady's time to shine right you're looking at them to win the division there They're only minus 135 Which is kind of crazy to when the division they are obviously on paper the much better team than the other three Opponents that they have in that division So I think this is a huge spot for them to kind of show everybody that you know Hey, we're still you know, we're halfway through the season We still have a chance to not only win our division But when we get into the playoffs we're gonna make noise and do that on the stage where they're going Against a rams team that you know is littered with weapons Regardless of how they feel about them. I still think that will sway the public's perception Very vastly if the bucks are able to pull this one out So are we saying that the tinder tom narrative is now a positive that the divorce news is public Are we saying that the the tinder tom narratives be gone from being a negative slash distraction to being a positive for tinder tom? Absolutely. I mean now because now it's finalized. So now it's not like oh, is there a potential that they could you know rectify things or whatever like no, it's just brady going out there and he's in the streets Yeah, right. He's he's in these streets And you know what the team has to come along with them and I will be curious to see how this offensive line plays against the front Seven there for the rams, but you know, they've been in positions where Listen chris godwin being healthy mic evans, you know, let's not have duck hands Let's try and catch the football here and some things can kind of break their way, right? And so I think that especially with that home crowd behind them and just rallying behind this team This is a perfect spot for them to kind of do that and they're only you know The three you talking about it being a close game go down there kick a field goal from suck up I I like the spot I've been monitoring this line all week because I've inched in the bucks and I there was a moment where it got to two and a half on Wednesday it was two and a half, but it was minus 120 on that it is now back to three It's a minus 104. So you're getting a little bit of a compensation for Getting the push at three But I think that I prefer to go the money line here the bucks money line is minus 146 and I think I'm just going to go with that I honestly feel like I was trying to wait out this market see where it wound up going But I think it's pretty steady at minus 146 cooper cup didn't practice Wednesday He's still going to play I would guess but to me He's not practicing as an indication that that ankle injury is not nothing So I think that the bucks are the right side here I prefer the money line at minus 146 to give me that extra safety, but I I agree where you are riding tinder tom Thankfully, it's not sleepy tom narrative this week because it is an afternoon game not a night game So we have only One narrative at play here the tinder tom narrative and it's now positive per ryan So i'm going to go with the bucks money line at minus 146 All right, let's open up the board here for you on week number nine ryan What else you see it at fandaly that you like for this week? Yeah, so let's stick in the three o'clock slot there. Um, I'm going back to to the seahawks. Well, we've talked about this team too They're getting plus two betting them against Arizona The road and home splits for arizona oppo of what you would normally think they somehow are better on the road Than they and then they are at covering at home. Um, and geno smith is just he's just been that dude this season Being able to carry this team. We love that kind of walker Um, could get more involved here and the defense is really, you know, kind of short short up themselves as well So, uh, you know, the the arizona side on on the other side We don't we don't know what to expect right? I mean the offense has had pieces kind of rotating in Haven't seen james connor in a couple weeks could be you know, benjamin once again But they just you know, they they find themselves in these spots And I don't know how we can trust them to be giving points in in any type of scenario at this point So I'll just take the two with seattle and let that one ride out and then when we go into the noon games I am uh, I am interested in uh, two other games in the nfc north So the detroit lions getting three and a half. I mean, they have not been able to cover for a while They look broken with jared goff But so did this packers team and I mean the one thing that you can do is establish the run and we know that Do staley and in the rest of the lions? Coaching staff will just get it doesn't matter if swift or gemal williams is out there They're just going to run the ball as much as they can against green bay probably keep erin rogers off the field Um, we you know don't know lazard status at this point, but the wide receivers, you know I mean they're relying on dobs and tour ray to kind of carry things for erin there They possibly could get erin jones and aj dill and a little bit more involved But this is an offense too that is broken and we'll see like erin rogers has been publicly You know dragging them through the mud For not getting them any help and this is the first game after the trade deadline where you know We could see him be sour grapes if this game is going sideways So I'll take the three and a half there and also with the vikings Game and the commanders too. I want to see the status of chase young. Um, if chase young, I saw he was practicing I don't know if that was limited fashion or full but chase young being back I think helps this defense tremendously Um, and I know that people are going to lean on the vikings They just made that huge trade for tj hawkinson and obviously we know all of the weapons that they have there But this is a road game for them Um, and you know kind of trust the non-kirk cousins, uh, hynaki has looked like he's got control of this offense We love that new scary terry's been a little bit more involved Antonio gibson has been risen from the dead by ron reverend company So, um, I'd be interested in that with the chase young status Getting more info on that but yeah, those are my lanes for week nine as as it stands right now Yeah, chase young designated to return on wednesday, which means he did practice the first time wednesday He they would be announcing that on saturday I think the positive for the commander side if you like that is that You're probably not going to see a shift based on young being activated So you can probably hold out and wait until saturday or sunday morning to get that number It's three and a half right now, uh in favor of the vikings So if you want the commanders plus three and a half monitor chase young status see where he's at Could potentially get that later on going back to seattle. My numbers agree with you They have the cardinals my traditional one has a cardinal here by point nine points But my 2022 only model not surprisingly has seattle favor despite being on the road by 1.7 points So, uh, I'm fine with geno smith riding it once again, honestly at this point Why would we not trust geno? So I think that uh, I'm on board with those as well That is all that we got here four week number nine in the nfl But we do have our player prop episode coming up for tomorrow with jj. Zachary's and get that by subscribing to covering the spread Wherever you get your podcast and while you're there if you like what you hear leave us a rating and review as well Ryan I want to thank you once again as always good luck to you this week We'll talk to you once again monday to break down the ravens at the saints. Sounds good. I can't wait We got to start off november strong for everybody. So, uh, thanks for everybody tuning in and we'll catch you next time Looking forward to you can find ryan on twitter at ryan alexander underscore w I am on twitter at gymsonus. You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast We'll talk to you once again tomorrow to wrap up week nine by talking about some player props This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network