 Hello, everyone. Welcome to another International Relations capsule for the Shankar PAYAs Academy. Last week, we began a review of 2021 global situation. Today, we continue it in a second part. Some of the other major developments in 2021 and what the future holds for them. Last week, we talked about the pandemic, the insurrection on Capitol Hill, the Biden presidency, Chinese developments, Indo-Pacific, Quad and Orcas, and Afghanistan. Today, we'll talk about a few other things depending on the time. India-Russia relations, Ukraine, Russia, NATO, complexities, German change of government, and climate change, and also Ethiopia and Sudan, not to forget the African continent. But since all of you are avid readers of the Hindu at the AAS Academy, hope you have seen my op-ed in the Hindu entitled From Selective to Universal Engagement, identifying some of the issues on which our external affairs minister was particularly involved. The point I have made is that the situation in the world compelled us to be hyperactive in diplomacy. And therefore, we found the external affairs minister particularly and also the Prime Minister and others were very active in various fora, not necessarily all friendly to us, but even those which were not so friendly. So that's the things I have put forward. And generally, it has been received well by the strategy community. And so that is the same theme that I have been mentioning to you that we have been very active, but solutions have not been formed for some of the crucial things like Ladakh and Afghanistan. But there are other developments which may not directly involve us, but may have some bearing on India's future and India itself, except in some influence on that. And the first is the India-Russia relations. It was under some strain in the early 2021. Afghanistan was one of the reasons, but also Russia had shown some inclination to improve relations with Pakistan. And our joining the Quad and supporting AUKUS, etc. had created some concern in Russia. And so some wrinkles had appeared in the relationship. And it was good that President Putin made his second visit after the beginning of the pandemic to come to India and dealt with some of these issues. Of course, the difference about Indo-Pacific remains and also our close relationship with the United States is causing concern in Russia, because the United States-Russia relationship aspect of the visit was the tenure and defense cooperation. Because in that we are particularly dependent on Russia, because of our traditional linkage with the Soviet Union. And whenever India has diversified arms purchases, etc., there have been tension in India-Russia relations. So that has been set aside by the import of S-400 in the face of U.S. opposition and also aka-103 rifles and the beginning of the 2 plus 2 dialogue. That is the first time the United States, Russia and India engage in defense minister, foreign minister, 2 plus 2 dialogue for the first time. It has been agreed that we will have another one next year in Moscow. So the bilateral relations had lost some warmth in the early 2021 and the purpose was that and in that it was a very good visit, because though Russia is not supporting India vis-à-vis China, they were not too explicit about that and they heard from our defense minister the need for India-Russia cooperation in the context of the situation on the China border also. And because of the defense cooperation, the concerns they had that India was veering towards the United States has been considerably softened. And in all the statements made by both sides, the continuity of relationship with Russia was emphasized and the agreement signed several agreements apart from the military, the K203 rifles and so on, but also 28 agreements on various issues, commerce, technology, cyber, very many other things. So of course you know that Russia is the only one operating a nuclear plant in India, the only foreign nuclear plant we have in India. So there are several reasons why the Russian relations improved and there was also this Chennai Vladivostok corridor for greater access to the eastern part of Russia. So on the whole, it was a successful visit, very practical and it removed several cobwebs in the understanding between the two countries on what we call Indo-Pacific and what they call Asia-Pacific etc. So things are moving, both sides seem to be happy about the visit and that has softened the international situation a little bit, but of course concerns remain about Russian interest in Afghanistan, our concerns with China etc and also of course Pakistan in the middle of all that. But on Afghanistan itself, the differences between the two countries were narrowed a little bit, because we identified the common positions in the two countries that is an inclusive government, no terrorism, no violation of human rights. So and this kind of things that we are concerned with because Russia had retold the resolution, the Security Council, but most elements of the Security Council were a resolution where kind of reiterated in a bilateral context and on the whole it was a balancing act, but very much a useful one. And then of course the Ukraine crisis also we have dealt with in detail, but the tension seems to be rising between Russia and Ukraine and the United States is very closely watching, they had some conversations and in Geneva there's going to be a US Russia meet on this particular issue. It is fairly simple in the sense that the Russian demand is not too much, basically what they are saying that the old understanding that the former Soviet republics will not be made members of NATO, of course that has been violated already because in the Baltic States and the Balkans, some of these small countries have joined NATO around the process of doing that. So that original understanding has been compromised, but that may be a little bit away from the main area of concern and therefore Russia accepted it, but when it comes to Ukraine, particularly after they had succeeded in taking Crimea away and since they have a lot of interest internally in Ukraine, there are many supporters of Russia inside Ukraine, so they have serious concern about Ukraine becoming a member of NATO and it looks that that would be the compromise that they will not activate it at this point and that this crisis will be avoided because at this time of coronavirus again hitting Europe in a very hard way, nobody wants to have a war, so neither Ukraine nor the United States will want a war, because Russia is very careful in giving the signals that this is their bottom line. So as long as that bottom line is respected, I don't expect a crisis in Russia, in the Ukraine relationship and some adjustments, arrangements, it may not be ironclad guarantees, but some understanding that Ukraine will not enter NATO in a hurry, I think that must soften the situation. But it's more important for US and Russia to talk about other things because between China and Russia, the US has two countries to cope with and perhaps it may be easier to have some kind of that kind of rapprochement with Russia than with China, China is more complicated and therefore that may be the way to go for the US to cool down on the Russia side and then try to see how they can save the China situation. What India should do is everybody is agreed that we should keep away from this crisis because we do not want to take sides and whether it is on principle or on practical matters, it is better that we keep out of this controversy and that is what we are doing because if we have to say anything, I'm sure we will say that things must be settled peacefully rather than any one side. I don't think we will be interested in doing that. Then government change in Germany we discussed in detail, again there's a big change because after a long period, Angela Merkel's rule has ended and her party is not in the coalition, but in Germany there are not many sharp differences between these parties because they can have any kind of coalition, sometimes a rainbow coalition where every party joins. But this time maybe because Angela Merkel has been in the government for many years and some of her cabinet colleagues are already in this government, there will be some continuity but of course there will be change in style, the new chancellor will be influenced by the Green Party which has come to power. Green Party has come to power, not only come to power but in an established manner in the government, that will be the major difference and Green Party's agenda is social justice and climate change that is their agenda and they have been working with various governments in Europe to strengthen this social justice and climate change agenda to put forward and as far as India is concerned there will also be continuity and the new government has said that they will look forward to greater cooperation with India and even in their coalition agreement they have mentioned India as a major partner and Germany was a little bit enthusiastic, it comes somewhat romantic about China in the initial stages and China tried to even during Angela Merkel's time to get a foothold in Germany to move into Europe in a big way after the kind of differences that existed between the European countries and President of the United States, particularly President Trump. But after President Biden came back that is not a big issue anymore and even more than Angela Merkel, Chancellor also will be friendly to the United States and American interests. Even on migration issue I think the new German government will be softer and will be as welcoming of migrants as it used to be. Though in the last years of Angela Merkel or some criticism that Germany was being too generous and therefore there were some restraints imposed and so that is good news there. I'm sure European Union will, Germany will assume a bigger position in the European Union because of the withdrawal of UK from the European Union. That again we have discussed and the new relationship between US and UK because of AUKUS will give UK more prominence as an independent country rather than as a member of the European Union to deal with these countries. So it is not a complete departure from the Atlantic politics to Pacific. So now with UK's involvement that linkage has been established. So it's not just a Pacific arrangement but also the old arrangement, the traditional Atlantic interest in the Indo-Pacific would be revived and there's a proper military alliance even though we are not part of it. It may be helpful for us to deal with China. Of course climate change again we have discussed in detail what has happened in Glasgow. Initially it was a kind of disappointment that Glasgow did not actually very much but increasingly now the new assessments that are coming are more encouraged because even though for example our commitments are all conditional to financing being available. I believe that just now Swaminathan Ayer had an article the other day saying that we have gone beyond our commitment in the case of fulfilling some requirements of the Paris Agreement. I have to look at this carefully because I don't know which aspect. Basically reducing our dependence on fossil fuel, some commitment that we have given we have already over fulfilled and Swaminathan Ayer is saying that this is a major event which went unnoticed. So otherwise also the moves that we are taking in energy, the non-conventional energy we are very firm, we are moving forward and it is quite possible that even without the financial support that Prime Minister Mo the main conditional to our fulfilling our commitments like 2030 and 2070 etc. will go forward maybe not to the fullest extent but will go forward more enthusiastically. So we are not a spoiled sport as it was predicted by the British President of the COP because he tried to put the whole focus on India and cold and he was very keen on a phase out rather than a phase down etc. So he tried to put India in the dock as it were and that is why at the end of the COP the discussions were somewhat confused but India made a positive contribution by agreeing to facing down cold in spite of the fact that we have very serious problems if we don't lose cold for some more time. So on the whole even the commitments of the developed countries seem to be serious but this can be seen only how far and how fast we will be able to deal with the climate question. So there is also good news that some technology is being developed to capture carbon from the atmosphere and if that happens it will be a scientific solution rather than a political solution because political solution is possible but the basic difference as I have explained to you several times is the reluctance of developed countries to change their lifestyle. So unless that happens you cannot have a political solution for the climate change but through scientific innovation and also efforts to replace you know fossil fuels with non-traditional items like solar energy and others will probably make things better although the predictions are that 2100 will still be much above the 2 degrees Celsius desirable limits that has been set. So after a couple of months the achievements of Glasgow appear to be better but then it depends on the assessment made by the IPCC in the next one year or so when we will have some more concrete evidence of some success but on India's side we are pretty serious about our commitments and we are doing everything and we have fulfilled our requirements of the Paris agreement it's even better but our commitment will be much more appreciated. Two things happening in Africa was hardly noticed because of all these other global developments. These are of some concern not directly we are not involved in this but since we have a long tradition of friendship with Africa in general because Africa we must remember is not one country we often talk of Africa as it's a continent it is not just one country if you say India-Africa relations it'll be very difficult to figure it out which Africa which part of Africa and we have some special relations with East Africa for various reasons of course with Nigeria and others in the West also we have good relationship but there are several other countries with which we have really known well we have contacts we are diplomatic relations but nothing substantial and basically because Africa has been looking at India with some amount of friendship because of our traditions and our contacts and our small little assistance programs we have etc but when donors started rushing to Africa first the Japanese and the Koreans and the Chinese and all that the focus shifted even the kind of assistance we are giving I spent two years in Kenya I didn't see much enthusiasm because India was a great favorite in terms of friendship many of the leading people in Kenya were students in India the ICCR scholarship and once a year they used to come to the High Commissioner's residence to express their gratitude etc but I didn't see them particularly friendly when I went to them with proposals and so there of course they do align of what is beneficial to them one interesting instance was when we fought the elections for the membership non-permanent membership of the Security Council against Japan and even though I had very good relations with the President and of course he himself was always talking of friendship with India but he was quite forthright in telling me to my face that he'll not be able to vote for India because Japan has committed a huge amount of money for development purposes to Kenya he didn't ask me but he sounded as though would you be able to pay the kind of money which was not very friendly and so he did not hide his intention to vote for Japan because we lost very badly in that election we got only 40 votes and we should have withdrawn but several countries had told us they would support etc and I must say Kenya was at least honest about it very categorically told the government that we should not expect the opinion vote and we did not get it so that is their priority yes some scholarships those who cannot get an American or a British or a Japanese scholarship he will come to India and they enjoyed very much when they come to India most of them who have come to India went back with great enthusiasm about India or Indian food India culture community and so on some of them of course misbehaved in India and had to be sent back because they've suddenly found themselves very prosperous because they used to get money from them their parents as well as from from the government of India and particularly students from Nigeria etc there are a problem in the universities but on the whole the scholarship program is very successful then we had extended some credit lines to many African countries which they have not been using very much because credit lines mean they won't they have to use Indian technology and Indian personnel and also they have to bear the costs share the costs of experts we sent idea is not to save money but to involve them in the development aspects there's a new book has come out on India-Africa relations which I'm now reading by Ambassador Ajit Bhatia which looks at India-African relationship comprehensively so let's see what it comes up with but my own experience in Africa was that we were not of great importance to them particularly after the Chinese arrival and the Chinese have replaced the Japanese and the Koreans etc in terms of money because but the Africans realized that the Chinese have an ulterior motive by in the sense that they are looking for the rich wealth, mineral wealth etc and also putting them into debt through the Belt and Road Initiative so the Africans were very enthusiastic with the Chinese initially but now they are getting disillusioned a little bit and of course we cannot match the kind of assistance that China is producing is providing to the Africans but wherever we can we do and we in the Ministry of External Affairs have become much more conscious of the importance of Africa and we are giving much attention to it I believe but it was not the case it was our kind of goody-goody relationship without much substance but now I suppose in the context of the problem that they have with China they are moving more and more close to India that is in general about Africa because in your studies Africa will figure and therefore you cannot ignore Africa fully so you need to follow developments in Africa also in your general studies paper relating international relations so at least the crisis points, the leadership, the names of the leaders etc you should remember and the name which will be remembered a lot last year from 2019 is the Nobel Prize awarded to the Prime Minister of Ethiopia Mr. Abhi Ahmad this was a big surprise because nobody had heard much about what he had done to its neighbour Eritrea they had very serious conflicts with Eritrea and since Mr. Abhi Ahmad became Prime Minister in April 2018 he made very sincere peace efforts with Eritrea and came to some agreements with Eritrea and that is what won him the Nobel Prize for peace it was probable because it was Africa somebody who was sincere enough and people must have been aware of the complications but the irony is that Mr. Abhi is now fighting a war and having won a Nobel Prize for peace which is quite ironic because what happened was his solving problems with Eritrea created problems with the Tigray people's liberation front an area that in Tigray or Tigray where people were that's the border land of Eritrea were against this arrangement and slowly development of move developed against Mr. Abhi and so when he wanted elections there was objection and then when he postponed the elections the TPLF at the Tigray people's liberation front held elections themselves and accused the Prime Minister of trying to grab power so though it is only 6% of the population the ethnicity problem in Ethiopia raised its ugly head and they virtually went into a civil war and the Prime Minister announced at that time that I'm just leaving the capital ideas above and I'm going to the front to fight physically fight with the Tigray front I don't know what happened to him since then we have not heard much and the TPLF had also good relations with Sudan briefly so now what Mr. Abhi has to do is to reach out to the various groups with different ethnicities and he is getting support from the United Nations of course African Union and generally all peace-living people in the world but he has got a golden this was a now this was a kind of outcome of what he did in terms of Eritrea so the ethnicity problem still remains as part of Ethiopian politics so let us hope that this will be resolved without any external intervention except the intervention of the United Nations and the African Union as you know internationally there is a accepted principle that Africa should be left to resolve its own problems and not intervene the unnecessary and the African Union has a machinery and it has been effective in various areas but in Africa generally it is the tribes that rule not nations because straight lines were drawn on the borders and tribes were left on both sides of the international borders and therefore it created complications in many places and that is part of the problem in Ethiopia also and Sudan of course is a very confusing picture because we will not go back into history too much let us start with the with the Lieutenant Colonel Al Bashir who took power in 1989 in a military coup and then 1993 he appointed himself as president and then like other dictators he declared himself a political leader and he established a one-party government in 1996 after some kind of elections and then he became a fan of Osama bin Laden was invited to come and live in Sudan this of course was the great concern in the United States and elsewhere and the support of and to become a state sponsor of terrorism it was declared and it deteriorated into a virtual war in in Darfur between the and the basic issue there was the Arab and non-Arab communities in 2011 the referendum South Sudan seceded from Sudan and became an independent country the latest member of the United Nations this is a very unusual thing and then in 2021 a sovereign council was appointed with their prime minister minister Abdullah Hamdok and he was carrying on but there was an attempted coup in September 2021 so and then a new regime was established by Abdul Fattah Arbun Khan who continued even though there was a civilian government he really controlled everything and so from the result democratic journey in Sudan since 2019 after the ouster of Al-Bashir but Al-Burhan continued to exercise great influence and authority in Sudan and as recent as day before yesterday or yesterday that is the second of January 2022 Mr Hamdok has resigned so again throwing the country into uncertainty so war terrorist government internal war succession of southern Sudan and continuing military dictatorship then efforts to have civilian government and all through Sudan with all the all the coronavirus and everything else has been going through a difficult time but once again this is an issue which has to be resolved by the UN as well as the African Union we have good relations with Sudan just as we have good relations with Ethiopia Ethiopia of course because of the way you had bought us there we have closer larger relationship Sudan the UN is very active and I know several Indian UN officials who have worked very well in Sudan so but the recent events were bad some 57 persons were killed and that is why Prime Minister Hamdok has resigned I'm sure the new year they are engaged in efforts to bring about a compromise but looking at the history of Sudan we cannot expect UN peacekeeping operation is still maintained there but we are also finding it difficult to continue there and so that may also be a problem but let's hope that things will be settled in a democratic manner in this country so that completes the QQ review of 2021 I focused on the crucial issues which are a particular touch to us and as I mentioned in my Hindu article I said all these developments kept us busy and Prime Minister of course stayed back but the external affairs minister was very visible in fact he traveled despite all the discomforts and the risks involved and we have made our point of view clear to everyone but the two most crucial issues that is Ladakh and Afghanistan we have not been able to find anything concrete but the efforts are on conversations are taking place so we are not particularly selective about to whom we talk and that is shown in the recent visit to Myanmar of the foreign sympathy because the whole world except China is opposing the military regime in Myanmar and we have of course started off several projects in Myanmar it was particularly had through when Aung San Suu Kyi was also in the government we were not only supporting military but also the civilian government but now that the military has given up all pretension to having a collaboration with the civilians it must have been very difficult for India to take this decision to visit the big army chief and this is like I said like going into the line lines then and asking it to be vegetarian or a change and that is what we would have told him and normally such advice is not taken very very softly by most countries because nobody wants to be advised as to what they should do but we soften the issue or the situation by carrying lots of covid vaccines and other things should be helpful to Myanmar again a humanitarian assistance program but more than that to show that China is not the only friend that Myanmar has and that's important because otherwise China will have a field day so but what concrete results will come from it whether Mr. Shingla has been able to change the heart of the military we are not so sure but it was a brave effort on the part of India and that completes the whole idea of India's universal engagement and the crowning glory will be if India is able to organize an India-US-China meet many people are talking about it and if that comes about I think that will be the ultimate in engaging everyone and trying to contribute to world peace even by keeping aside our major interests instead of highlighting that we are trying to bring about some kind of of a peaceful transition to the post covid world so thank you very much yes that's a very valid question and the point I was making was Africa means 54 states I don't I don't think as aspirants you'll have time to study every country in Africa and so even the odd chance of one question in international relations from Africa you cannot afford to spend so much time on all the countries because there is no such unified place as Africa so what I would suggest is instead of focusing on specific countries like Ethiopia or Sudan where there is an immediate problem you deal with and try to read up issues on the general issues in Africa of course the most important is development then tribal issues, border issues, exploitation of Africa by other countries particularly like China their colonial linkages and their traditional relationships with India so some kind of a general understanding of Africa maybe enough I'm not saying that Africa is not important because many people believe that the world of the future will depend on where Africa was and the epidemic has taken its toll we don't know when it will end South Africa was particularly a sad case because there became you know victims because they found us the Omicron virus in South Africa they only identified it and told the world and they have done much better than what the Chinese did but then immediately everybody started ostracizing South Africa canceling flights and so on so in the present the South Africa said what are you doing to us what are you punishing us for so this is the misunderstanding that we have whenever South Africa is mentioned so my suggestion is to prepare for some general issues on Africa which can be used in your main space thank you very much