 The following is a presentation of TFNN The power trading hour with your host David white Call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at 727-873-7618 now David white And welcome again as we get ready to rumble With the Fed coming out up 32. Is that right? Let me update this just to make sure up 18 We were up 32 just a second ago on the S&P NASA except 27 crude oils up a big five and a half bucks Gold down about three bucks and not much happening there and then the church of what's happening now Of course, we had a little bit of bounce Not uncommon In these feds to see a little higher a little lower a little higher a little lower and then maybe about 315 when he's done with his babbling his prognostications That don't have really any Any iron to them We will see what the market makes of it But my thoughts are that we've been dreading this half a percent Thing and it's kind of like someone it's a difference me someone that sneaks up behind you and pulls the hair and Someone that says got a hold of one of your hairs and says in the next five minutes. I'm gonna pull your hair The other the second one is always more painful and I think there's been a lot of psychic pain that he's endured by by talking and talking and analyst babbling about the Thing and everybody's gonna go. You know what? We're still here The trains are still running the planes are still in the air Well, maybe it's not as bad as everybody thought it probably is but that's just the way the psychology the market moves So we'll keep an eye on this but look for a little bit up a little bit down and my guess is by the time We roll around to the end of the day That probably be a little higher Anyway, we shall see but everybody all nervous and as they say sell on the trumpets and buy on the cannons and certainly this is a Little bit of a volley going back and forth eight seven seven nine two seven six six four eight and You can email me at path at tfnn.com and What else put a message in the den? Was this a cannon shot? Yeah, not so much over the bow, but kind of on the railing Certainly not one on the the on the waterline that would have a sink fairly quickly But yeah, there's some shrapnel flying around if you've ever seen any of the great pirate movies Of course, what in the cannon the ball that killed so many people is all the splinters that went around and eventually caused people to Die from a lot of other things mostly infections back in the day And that's it. So you wonder exactly just how bad it's going to be but Initial rally, I don't know if you think long. Do you think wrong? I think a lot of people decided they were just going to short no matter what waiting for a bounce But by the end of the day, I have a feeling they probably Are at a draw I'd say right now look for a close over forty two hundred and less He decides to drop the chalupa In the punch bowl before the end of the day, but I don't think he is I think he's probably going to be a little bit Benign now that he's got his pound of flesh with his half percent rate I'm going to drop the chalupa today instead of the baby Ruth in the punch bowl But yeah, there's a little bit of everything out there for us But light and variable and of course volume into the sell-off earlier in the day wasn't bad We started the show at two o'clock with about six billion shares We had about seven billion shares yesterday. So volume did decrease now. We want to see what volume looks like Tell her the end of the day and which way we actually close and it'll give us a hint of how really worried people are Or are not Okay, what else do we have going on out here? Did the fed do a pearl harbor? Nah, I think he just kind of strafed the troops a little bit But uh, he could still come by and drop the big one But uh, yeah that will end the war. I don't think there's that much Uh, let's talk a lot a little history and then we'll get into some charts as things move along A little bit of history repeating It is history repeating and on this day in 1984 del computer corporation is founded by michael dell Running the direct-to-order pc company from his dorm room Del eventually became the largest manufacturer of PCs in the world for many years But uh, hp and acer and a lot of the other taiwanese brands far surpassed them today He left the company. What in 2004? Came back a couple of years ago took it private Got a lot of stuff fixed Now fattening it up for the sale He's actually done some stuff to create new products and get out of just moving boxes But a great deal is about those moving boxes and monitors to corporate america And uh, he continues on to today Okay, what else do we have? Well, let's start taking a look at Uh, what we have in the markets and look Uh, at the reaction or lack there of of some of the bigger stocks out here, of course, uh, we had uh Amazon blowout Uh, see four days ago. They had 13.6 million shares And that's a lot for a $2,500 company Um couple days ago 4.7 or excuse me 7.4 and today about three So we got about half the volume in a little yeah about half the volume We had three days ago and of course 13 million shares. So this is starting to burn itself out I don't know if there's a whole lot, but you can get back up to 2,500 Just on a dead cat bounce, which is kind of the way I've been describing this whole week Uh, we'll get into some of those other ones Uh, if you uh, think that there may be confluence on some of these and where you would want to Think about going, uh, either selling the bounce or Shorting, uh, make sure and email me at path at tfnn.com Uh, the first question of the day Uh, comes from joe and he wants to take a look at ccj Again more of an issue. I think with china than anything else Uh, but uh, you pull back to support It's actually not so bad Unless you were long up there at 32, uh, what else do we have here? Let's take a look at this um The downside is you really broke through what you would have probably wanted to have As support, uh, but you're certainly in Um Larger confluence range now when they're this wide they tend to be muddy And they tend to consolidate a lot when they're very thin. They tend to riley right off of it Um, but uh, yeah, could you get a handful more days of this thing going sideways? Uh, before you get a bounce out of it of significance I think you could uh, there's kind of a uh a gap at about 27 50 My guess is uh, when this thing does get burnt out here Probably going to go up to 27 50 27 66 area and you'll uh You get an idea if there's any volume or energy back in that we'll be back in a minute Are you grinding in the market? But seeing little to no return or are you a successful trader simply looking to make your job a little easier? 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Watch online at tfnn.com or on tfnn's youtube channel And become the investor you were born to be tfnn educating investors Toll free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at 727-873-7618 As we return Have a couple questions first one's about options I'll run them during the uh 240 break. I want to see what happens here In the 40 minutes after the announcements and see if there's anything But they the option market makers have been very bullish Up and to this point. So maybe they changed today. Maybe they don't From what I saw before I figure that we close above 4200 on the s&p cash today. So we'll see whether that Comes out. I know it's kind of bouncing around now but It's looked pretty good. Anyway, I'll run those during the uh The break here in about 20 minutes. We'll see if anything really changed But we've got to give it a little bit of time see if market makers have decided to move the cheese, but they're they're They really don't think there's a whole lot lower. Let me put it that way now like I said Putin could drop dead and he could nuke somebody and those would be fairly big binary outcomes So I'm more on the option side of the market than throwing a lot of money and equities now question about uber Long-term thoughts I'll give you some short term One you had a pretty large gap down on the 6th of april You have your second gap down today. And as I said, I don't touch stocks That have two big gaps because 80 of the time they get a third big gap lower And it may take a month or two for this thing to get it. But the odds are so stacked against you on this But you know, they do have a lot of times some symmetry So you have one two three four five six and let's say Let's say you got 20 days between that first gap and the second one It's not uncommon to see maybe 15 to 25 days before the next gap And maybe you get a little bit of a bounce out of this thing The downside that I would say is that you don't have that big a bounce Right now confluence sits at 32 26 Actually, that's fairly decent on a percentage basis. Could it go up there and then fail? It's not uncommon with two gaps to get this one filled get a little bit more and then you get the third gap But again, you don't know where that gap is coming Um, and just the propensity for two gaps to end up being three large gaps Uh tells me that way. So if you wanted to play it, I would only play it with options Uh, the most I think you could hope for out here is about 32 bucks Which is still fairly decent, uh move on that. I just don't know if there's a lot of reasons to play it Uh, certainly give it three days. I don't think that there's any reason before next week To get involved in it Fundamentally The whole ride sharing thing is a problem It's not a week goes by that you don't read about another company or a country That is changing the rules that which uber and lyft work on I know I've got some friends whose kids Did it now they just kind of look at it as ways of making money to give uh to the car payment and buy new tires And really not make that much money. So I think that there's it's kind of had its day in the sun To some extent and I'd really want to see a very good sign of a low in uber and lyft together Before I started paying it higher. Yeah crappy job Drivers have done the math finally, uh, they've seen their bank accounts, uh emptied By spinning it on especially on gas now. I don't know. Do they get uh higher rates now? Maybe somebody knows I didn't even look at it But I'm wondering it four bucks a gallon or four and a quarter around here Uh, whether it makes even less sense than it made before but uh should be okay Oh, he bought uber puts well hats off to you a tip of the hat a knot of the head Uh, since this guy bought puts but uh, yeah, I don't know what puts you bought when they are at Uh, I think you're probably talking about three days sideways on this one So I don't know if there's a great deal more to be had Uh, but uh, you know if the market turns south and sour and dour Uh, certainly could be it and uh, we shall see eight seven seven nine two seven six six four eight Okay, uh Microsoft flat on the day, but we'll take a look at it anyway And see what the usual suspects are saying Yeah, you're just uh, you've had your bounce Um on a chart basis You had your low You had a bounce with decent volume. You were up on the 27th of april with 63 million shares You're down a little day on 15. There's not a lot of juice here pushing to the downside We'll see how the end of the day comes Uh, but you hit that gap now three or four or five times Um, yeah, maybe you're ready to go back and retest the high of the 28th Which is what uh 289 I wouldn't you know, that's not a lot, but any of these stocks Uh, could move the bigger indices Uh, a bit and as I said, I'm kind of thinking that uh Maybe we go higher here, but fading. I don't know what has he said balance rate things cut And he's not even talking yet. So who knows maybe he comes out and uh starts uh spouting rainbows and unicorns Out of some orifice and everybody loves it uh apple, uh Actually above but not on volume today 58 million shares, but everything's fairly light You did kind of go fill this gap down from the 29th Uh, you are above the three by three So that's it. Um energy was just slightly lower on the way down, but it looks to me like a bigger trading range Uh, the real problem for apple on the upside would be getting through probably 72 73 bucks Where that gap resides Uh question on my call on uv x y Uh We're down four percent. Uh, not that far to 13 Uh, are you still looking at that? Yeah Um, it would only take another day or two and again, you don't have to go higher. You just don't have to go lower very much Uh, so I would not be surprised especially if you see a little bit of a push Toward the end of the day and a rally into friday's close. I think friday you could see Uh, the uv x y at 13 or 13 and a quarter or something like that Uh, okay. What else do we have? Okay Um Hey got that. Okay Just some house cleaning stuff question about netflix in my discussion about Uh, the impending doom of all streamers Um, kind of funny. I don't know if anybody saw it and I almost tried to clip it Uh, but there's a fairly famous tweet from netflix in late Uh, 2017 or 2018 Uh, where they were talking about sharing your your uh password And it said sharing is caring How things change Uh, they're not very happy with anybody sharing anymore But apparently a lot of at least everybody says they're doing it. I don't know anybody that's actually told me they want to ask Maybe they don't I would say Yeah, maybe somebody at the end of Lots of people sharing You will If you want to take advantage of this sector now is the time to subscribe to my gold report The gold report is a comprehensive look at the metal sector as well as the markets that move gold Which is the currency and bond markets new subscribers get a 30-day money back guarantee So you have nothing to lose every monday morning. I published a gold report with coverage of gold silver bonds the xa u hui gdx as well as more than 30 different mining equities To see for yourself the types of profitable trades that are recommended within the gold report sign up now by visiting tfnn.com don't miss out on the next great gold trade sign up today tfnn has just launched their new trading room the tiger's den hosted at discord tfnn has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours And now they are expanding their reach with a tiger's den available to all tigers and tigers for just one dollar for the year There's no catch or added costs when you join our community of traders in the tiger's den You can look over the shoulders of tom o bryan and the other tfnn hosts while they analyze charts during their live tiger tv programs and join an interactive trading community with hundreds of members exchanging ideas Interact with other tigers and tigeresses as they share trading ideas news analysis and discuss the market action all trading day Even at night and on the weekends the tiger's den at discord is accessible on mobile or tablets as well So it's always at your reach to sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders Just visit the front page of tfnn.com tfnn is excited about our new software charting program the art of timing the trade chart In collaboration with tom o bryan and using his best-selling book the art of timing the trade your ultimate trading mastery system David white has programmed an outstanding piece of software that will complement any trader's methodology Using this first of its kind program the art of timing the trade charts allows you to scan thousands of stocks for fibonacci formation setups Including guardleaf abc's butterflies and much more the art of timing the trade charts is designed to help you When scouring the markets for stocks just beginning to form the trading patterns that many investors spend days weeks Or even months searching to find and right now we're offering licenses available at only $79 a month We are so confident that you're going to love this new charting software that will even give you a 30 day Unconditional money back guarantee don't miss out on this incredible new piece of software Get your copy of the art of timing the trade charts today by visiting tfnn.com This segment is brought to you by think or swim for more information Just click the think or swim banner on the front page of tfnn.com as we return We've got a color It's jim at boston. How you doing today? Give me a full report Okay, so you know i'm wondering about western digital. You always have some interesting fundamental color on these these uh Drive stocks and uh, and so it looks to me like the gap up Yesterday was a little bit manufactured and uh Just just scouting it out for a long term kind of situation Uh, what's talk about the fundamental part of selling hard drives? Um For the most part if you're talking about spending hard drives you have two companies that you can go to Of your customers 90 of your business is to cloud services So you've got five big customers between western digital and seagate They're all making bigger and bigger drives Um, they can't really get that much faster Uh, they're throwing things like nitrogen and helium in them to actually helium Uh to keep friction down to get them faster and to keep more data and a lot of other stuff Um, but you got four customers and of course seagate in western digital are always Having to fight for that business from amazon web services or google or the government or whoever's stealing all your data today um now the money Is in high availability server business Which is very very very very fast SSDs and very fast spinning drives So that's where The winners and these are going to make it, but the problem is every year you get more and more Uh of the business going to SSDs, which is really just a memory manufacturing issue, right I mean In that when my when I really started to make uh, uh a a debt with the company I was with The problem was that they had, uh Vcrs for broadcast television stations But there were a lot of problems with editing. You had to back up the tape. You had to get this to the ballistics Absolutely perfect to get the the edits together There's a lot of other issues a lot of technical issues to to get through and The way the most people in technology talk about that is black magic dark arts Right, there's something that you can't just get a caliper out or a slide rule and figure out There's something that you only get by time doing it um, I compare that with like qualcom, uh, which is uh In the black arts like that, yeah Yeah with rf radio frequencies because they don't there's nowhere to just go to a book and know exactly how something's gonna respond and so All of their intellectual property for western digital orc gait either one is all about spending hard drives When it gets to ssds, it's just a memory manufacturing thing. So It depends on whether you're talking a short term or long term long term. They're out of business Long term eventually they're going to be the last company that makes a buggy whip. Uh, there is some newer technology Um, that's coming out that looks like density would be much better I don't know about speed, but there's some stuff in that part of it Um, and the question is feeding drums. Did you say Dave? What's that density of ssd drives? Uh density of uh ground up diamonds actually Quantum diamond technology, which is what everybody in silicon valley is looking at now, but I don't know about um Exactly, you know when this stuff's going to come out, but apparently everybody that's where the throwing their money at the moment Um, so you you really You know eventually there's going to be a technology that surplants spending drives And when it does it's probably not going to have a lot of black magic Right, it's probably going to be something that they can crank out at scale and whoever gets to the uh Uh to the cheese first is going to be a big winner for a while On that, uh, and then eventually everybody's is going to do it so Generally, you know you get these giant moves off of a change in technology Or as I like to say a change in magnitude Uh of technology also comes with a change in magnitude of price An order of magnitude in price and I'm just wondering when these guys die off But we haven't seen we haven't seen it quite yet The problem that I see long term for these guys and why i'm pretty sure they're going to die off Is you've kind of got All this data think of about it is like 10 million people living in downtown And you can't really build a lot faster highways All you can kind of do is pair them all up together and say everybody goes uh downtown at eight and comes home at four To make the lanes faster and the data come faster on and off the drive um I mean they continue to be a big thing for saving data Right, but generally the high availability data where it's just where the market and money is Intel kind of is uh zoomed in on that is being able to get something incredibly fast on and off a drive And a lot of that's ssd stuff And intel still doing very well with that So i'm just wondering when the end is nigh right now in the short term you could see 66 bucks There's a little gap up there. I think that's probably where it's going It's probably going to pull back to 60 meander get up to 65 If i'm right on the broader markets having a little bit of a rally maybe into the end of may And then you're probably going to see him fade off a little bit more Kind of interestingly enough for companies that have problems With supply chains Almost all these drives are making malaysia And even the seagate and western digital things are in the same business park They really don't have supply chains everything they had was down there in malaysia and really not affected that much So maybe There was at least the last couple of quarters with supply chain issues on chips and stuff Maybe a little bit of movement to get what you can instead of what you can't With ssd's and faster stuff and chip shortages But i mean they use a few but it's not it's not the same kind of thing of the chip shortages and the GPU business and video cards and processors and stuff like that So in the short term looks kind of good Maybe better just because it's harder to get other stuff that may be better, but you can't get it kind of thing Long term they're all out of business. You just don't know when right when the rig rug gets right But I it won't happen all at once, but we'll see some kind of technology. I'm pretty sure to supplant it for long term and large storage That's more digital instead of magnetic Stuff on a hard drive. Maybe you'll see spinning Uh diamond drive quantum drives or something, but uh, I think they had like a little They're spinning the diamond drive. So do they I mean, that's a that's a modulation scheme They pick up off the magnetic signature of the disk So I do not know I want them then it's it's already in the state of digital, right? Right, but you could spin them to get to them. You know, I don't know if the the sensor Uh, it can go anywhere Do you just put these things all over the place and address them like memory? Or do you have to scan them over the top? I don't know the technology yet I just know that that that's where everybody's throwing their money now and it'll probably Yeah, yeah, so it's probably a year or so away My question would be is whether or not some of these memory manufacturers come out with a lot of memory over the next year to Maybe surplus memory. Can you see western digital taking five? Right. Yeah, so anyway short term a little higher long term watch for the red Be back Are you in the market for buying or selling real estate in the bay area? Including the surrounding st. 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That's tfnn.com and hit watch tiger tv the conversation and they're still thinking that the s and p breaks 4200 and That we have most of what's in right now. They're thinking that we get maybe up to 4300 On the s and p cash by the 20th of may for options expiration So they think we get higher and then we may enter higher a break of 4200 or close of 4200 We may just go up and test 4300 very quickly and then see a full bear war go on but uh at the moment they're thinking 4300 for May 20th, so we shall see That's not that far away and 100 points Might set up the next leg down But as I said, I kind of think that the we've had the worst in and what we're kind of probably do is bounce and stumble and Be odis the drunk from mayberry And mayberry rfd. I don't know if he was in that I think he was just in the original mayberry Anyway, odis will wander around and find his way home But it may be that we have to go all the way into the three-day weekend at the end of may To find the next high that's probably shortable So again, uh, you're in a bear market But the problem is being and staying bearish For far too long Most of the time you're going up. It may be a little But most of the time, uh, you know, you want to take your money fairly quickly being bearish When the break comes but generally you're probably going to see it and it is going to be some kind of burning bush Out here. Okay, we got some more emails. Take a look Okay Good enough on that Uh By special requests, there will be a job sucking sound. Yeah, pal Uh, I wouldn't say it's the end of the world But certainly market makers and options have been rather bullish up to this point They didn't really flinch by whatever happened in the first 15 minutes or 30 minutes after The announcement and of course we're over 4209 could we just run right now to 4300? That would be very interesting I do not know. I don't think it's that good. My guess is as we get to the end of the day And every day The bears now are going to try to short everything And it's just going to be one of these things where you slowly go back up I've been buying calls all day long in the most hated stock I probably have seen in years in a market that literally doesn't have any more Shares to short And maybe we'll see but I kind of like Being out here on a limb With everybody as bearish as you can get everybody being a little bit worried and pal actually Dropping the baby roof in the punch bowl at least in the short term Um That's where you get these rip your face off rallies in bear markets But if we get to 4300 and there's no volume, uh, you can uh, say that I'll put my bear outfit back on But uh, I think it's going to take a little bit of time thoughts from jill on tlt After the announcement, um, I was kind of surprised that we really haven't done much out here quite yet I thought he might be a little bit more sanguine than he was But I think the market as I said at least in the short term Is uh, kind of like your big brother who said he's going to hit you He's going to hit you he's going to hit you and he does that for about 30 minutes And of course, uh, the hit becomes more painful for every moment you You wait then you get hit and it hurts probably more than if he surprised you But then it fades and you go on and I think we're kind of in that area where We've all known that we're going to take the hit Now we've taken a question about the micron anyway tlt Looks like you're going to test uh, 116 93 on lighter volume today Again, I'm thinking that you could have a fairly decent bounce And I don't know where that comes from maybe some geopolitical event Where the fed decides that maybe 50 percent 50 percent A half a percent raise in the next thing changes But uh, yeah You could I don't want to be short this thing at the moment You pretty much completed a extended abc down at the moment So you're probably going to get some bounce 126 ish I think would be the first part where I'd want to be short again the tlt If you had a long-term thing and you've sat on it since 132 or 142 then you can sit on it But uh, I don't see any reason to be diving in on that grenade today Uh, what else do we have out here? um Great call on the recent market moves since monday is fun buying over It will be kind of over today You may have some stragglers in the morning But that will be kind of it. But yeah You got a little bit of that going for you into the close today If they haven't put money to work. They've got to put money to work But at this point, I think there's probably a lot of shorts and until you get uh over 209 I think you're going to get three days higher Uh, the top end of that range would be 4,300 at least from what i'm looking at options So maybe you get up there and you pull back But uh, I'd be You know as much as everybody wants to be bearish here I'd be kind of worried about being bearish until we get up there and all the volume falls out Uh, but uh, that is just I okay. Yep still thinking maybe 13s on the uv x y Uh, answered that earlier anything on, uh, gdx Uh Jay Take a look at that. Um Well, you're back over the three by three. You did that yesterday. You had a retest today on lighter volume um, again I don't know gold's just The pit of perpetual despair at the moment Um, I tried a couple of longs. I didn't lose anything. Thank god. I got out when I had a chance, but uh Now there isn't a whole lot there and and funny enough The stock I bought because it was in a good gartly pattern is right back to where kind of where I sold it. So Um, gartly patterns kind of holding up in it, but you know what? Uh, it's not a profit It's just kind of hanging out. Uh, let's take a quick look at micron Uh, as we go through, uh and get ready for the end of the day Uh Uh Okay Uh I'm just checking the den to see if I have anything else I didn't catch if you did repost it in the den. I didn't see it. Oh, I do have something up here Uh No Everybody always wants to Uh Say everything is toast They're just testing you Uh, my uh mick they're just testing you and like I said earlier in the show, I've been adding all day long Once it got to the level We'll be back after this look at my chronograph show Uh and any other emails we get in the uh Sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument You have to practice sure, but you also need excellent instruction from experts at tfnn You'll get advice and guidance from the authority and technical market analysis And it's not just dry tedious text either tfnn airs live financial content streamed live on tfnn.com and tfnn's youtube channel with tiger tv Live every market day from 8 30 a.m. To 4 p.m. Eastern for free Each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds tiger tv has eight different shows with expert hosts To help you make the right moves with your money Watch online at tfnn.com or on tfnn's youtube channel and become the investor you were born to be Educating investors You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market You're going to need a crystal ball after all it's impossible to predict the future, right? 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So i'm sticking with it. I've got a bunch of calls for friday and uh, I've added so Uh, not making a lot of money yet, but we'll see I think this is the kind of action that can make grown men come to their knees If they're still short Is that it did I get everything else we get in there we got to look at micron here, uh to end the show um as we said there's just when I had a Fairly good confluence level Um, yeah, I'm still thinking that uh, the bounce could be to 78 bucks on micron Uh, you get a couple of days like this and short covering in these stocks, even if there's not that much Maybe you only get it for a second But uh, I'm gonna say that there's probably a 75 percent chance that micron hits 78 before we head lower Uh to to well we're done. So there's nothing left We looked at options and yes, they continue to be bullish Uh after the initial and they're bullish Uh after I ran them there again 4300 is the high end of this range that we're looking at now That would be the next real level of resistance if you're thinking about going short Uh the market, um same thing in the spies really i'm transferring that from the spies. So no since monday I've been rather bullish. I'm gonna continue to be bullish until I see that burning bush that tells me that You know what? This is a signal time to get out Uh eject eject eject Uh bolter bolter bolter Now I don't see anything. I think I think we have a lot of people that went short today and they're gonna have to uh They're gonna have to cry uncle before the end of the day 4300 is not out of the question Uh, I certainly think we have about a 90% chance of hitting that uh by friday Don't hit it today So when you can and cover with you you can like today, uh, we will return like uh Same bad panel same bad time. So we cover Building wealth trading in the stock market seems impossible