 Mae'n gofio'n gweithio. Efallai yma 11 oed! I hope you're doing well and I had a good evening. Going to get you up to speed on just generally the Cosenwall Street, anything of importance overnight in the Asia pack session. And then I look ahead for today with the emphasis on, of course, the ECB policy meeting and accompanying press conference with Christine Lagarde. So first off, let's just have a review of the charts. Because overall I would say the news flow is relatively light in terms of major things to be aware of this morning. a dyna yn gwneud i rannes cyntaf i gydwyr ni fel yna oedd yn gweithio'r ffordd o'r bwrdd yn Mynd Hwy, A'r ystod fawr o'r cychwyn i'r hollig hefyd, a dweud o'n mynd hwyl i'r hollig hefyd. Wir i fyny o'r hollig hefyd, ac Rydydd wedi gweld pawb, mae'n oes o bobl siad mewn 바�wy ac'na eu mir o'r hollig hefyd i'r hollig hwn yn y bobl o'r hollig hefyd,τοch chi'r mwy fwy o'r 1.4 four area all the way up to towards 1.6% in US 10-year yields. We peaked out actually on Monday and the market started this week, kind of has it left off last week, a little bit apprehensive, rotations, tech getting hit, equity's bit heavy, likewise with gold with a firm of dollar. However, really since that point over the last two days in particular, yields have continued to just back off a little bit and now we reside back towards kind of 1.52, well off the highs, we're up around 1.61 on the daily closes for this week. So that in itself I think has led to a large degree of the market rebound that we've been observing over the last 48 hours. Yesterday we saw the S&P 500 notch its best two-day advance since early February led by financial firms and producers of raw materials because don't forget a higher yield environment is positive if it's based on the notion of growth and not that of inflation. It's kind of like a good yield movement or bad yield movement and when it's if you're talking about the reopening of global economies and if it's done in a positive fashion then there's no reason why you can't have a higher yield environment with it being a positive one for equities as well. That's kind of what we've been seeing and if anything the Dow, so the Dow Jones Industrial Average which I'll bring up here, has printed record high and actually closed above 32,000 for the first time ever and this is just looking at the Dow in yesterday's session and it really just you know on the breakout that we had from that double top of price activity from former highs seen at 32,114 once it broke that it just really just kept pushing higher and higher and these are all-time record high levels again in the futures that we've printed in the overnight Asia Pact session. I've just marked up a couple of rectangles here of price levels that I would be keeping an eye on given the nature of the move up to see either bit of consolidation or even pullback from these levels wouldn't be I think too untoward so I think appropriate to mark up some levels of retracement that could come into play if that were the case. Here then 32,378 which would be some of the highs that we were seeing in the back end of the Wall Street session yesterday going into the close and then support in the Asia Pact session anything lower than that and again resistance and support points from yesterday and overnight would be here is at 32,254 and then deeper down on the breakthrough of that double top we had from yesterday but yeah interesting because in this type of more positive sentiment environment we're getting the opposite then of what we have been seeing which is Dow outperforming NASDAQ underperforming so on the close actually the S&P was up 0.6 the Dow was up one and a half the NASDAQ was actually down about a third of a percent in yesterday's session. What else is triggering this well we had a relatively tepid CPI number you know with the market being so inflation obsessed at the moment I think natural human behaviour and that does get reflected somewhat I think in price in short term reactions is everyone's kind of leaning on the emergence of inflation happening quite rapidly that's the general view and I think markets have overshot that a little bit and definitely yesterday's CPI which was in line year on year but the core readings were a touch softer than expected actually created a little bit of a more kind of positive reaction that kind of relief if you like the inflation isn't here surging right now but ultimately it is something that will for sure materialize in the months ahead so a little bit of a more of a short term reaction effect due to market perception on timing of inflation I'd say rather than a real definitive change in the expectation of emerging inflation in the future to accompany that Congress gave its final approval to the latest U.S. stimulus package this now goes to Biden for signage on Friday so that again another positive factor that it's just gone through without too much resistance and then we had the the 10-year auction the one of which the market was assigning perhaps them a more higher priority to just given the maturity and technically it was okay the amount to kind of internals of the auction were not amazing but I think again just given the apprehension that came from how how dire the seven-year auction was two weeks ago we've had a pretty decent three year the tenure was okay that in itself into very low kind of expectations and also against this general relative to recent performance the market liked in reaction terms the 10-year auction so again it's you have to kind of apply context I think to the situation and going into the auction you know yields were already declining and the tenure was already bid so when it came out it just kind of just top that move up so to speak the combination of those three things really the slightly tepid inflation congress approval the 10-year going okay all kind of further supported the general move across asset classes that we had and this morning equity index futures are trading as I talk masnak and S&P futures are at session highs now overnight then this did spill over into the Asia pack session the China CSI 300 index moved its had its biggest move higher in two months and of course this comes after the state backed intervention to support their equities just a few days ago after they've been coming under quite a significant route of late and that generally reverberated across the Asia pack region where most indices were trading positive despite the relative mixed handover we've had from from the US another thing to be aware of that house has helped local sentiment there is the fact that US and Chinese officials agree to conduct a two-day summit next week in Alaska now that's meaningful because it would be the first in person meeting between US and China senior representatives since the Biden administration has come in and definitely you know this is a strategically very important relationship for both those countries but also for markets to really figure out then what is the you know what is the status quo of that relationship just given the new the new president the fact that they're talking is obviously a net positive so again it kind of plays into the whole notion of the short term sentiment at the moment the main thing though to talk about for today because as I said there's no other real news for me to comment on is the ECB and this of course is the ing cribschi of breaking down the complexity of a monetary policy event into its most definable parts and that being the four categories if you like between forecasts that for inflation and growth of which we will get new economic forecasts from the ECB which happens essentially every alternate meeting this time round and then you've got the actual policy statement which is really looking at the actual policy tools in play so the interest rates the QE program and the or the asset purchase program and then the pandemic emergency purchase program the PEP so there your actual tools and then there's the level of the exchange rate which is the other key element of which is a focal point which markets look at so the you can almost put a division between these two things here but kind of kind of think of this as policy bingo if you like and you're trying to calculate in the end then over these four parts where and what is their stance how do they refer to these issues ticking them off and then does this meet then a overall more dovish announcement from the ECB or more hawkish and then that consequently will give you then the directional market impact that this can have on the euro or european yields european equities like the DAX for example so here then ing's base case i'll read that out first because i do think that this is very much the case of probably what's going to happen today and they're saying that for inflation outlook somewhat higher inflation this year on the back of one of factors i.e referring to the the reopening of the economies and low base effects and energy prices and so actually it's just a reflection of that rather than underlying in consistent and persistent inflation conditions that we should be worried about so very much as expected recent data confirmed base case of gradual recovery so again the idea that it's going to be a bit more of a slower burner particularly in europe with the the vaccine rollout and so forth the interest rate and the policy side of it no change there's the pept size to increase if necessary so it's kind of language reiterated to to be flexible reassuring to markets that it's there if needed and then the exchange rate no common at all so actually compared to prior occasions the ECB meeting according to the analysts at ing should not really be that much of a risk event for the euro and the reason for that is the recent declines and trade rated euro and the euro dollar suggests there's basically no need for ECB officials to push back against what otherwise had been a weakening or strengthening euro i should say because remember eliminate the last two weeks of really price movement where the dollar has been pretty rampant following the tracking of the increase in the US yields we've been seeing that then in part has forced the euro dollar pair lower which then counteracts any need for the ECB to say anything about what otherwise was a real point of contention over recent months about how high the euro was becoming because of the persistent weakness of the dollar so at the moment we're in this kind of you know short termish phase of dollar appreciation for now at least and so that renders any discussion about the euro kind of null and void which takes out a lot of the potential interest from this meeting of course then this is just the actual statements we have a press conference and the main topic undoubtedly is going to be rising bond yields and what does Christine Lagarde have to say about that what are the thresholds that these to be looking at what would they do to counteract it obviously she's not going to answer these explicitly but how she responds to that that key subject is going to be important for how to then trade these assets throughout the afternoon while the ECB may talk about unwarranted increase in yields and the tightening of financial conditions more forceful action would weigh on the single currency of course i an increase in perhaps the PEP that's one of the options here which definitely would constitute a more dovish reaction in terms of what this might mean which could be equities higher euro lower yields lower but that's highly unlikely i don't really see any need at this point for them to really move the needle as such there has been source comments out in regard to the forecasts overnight and they've said ECB draw forecasts assume only a fleeting jump in inflation and savings will not fuel a spending boom and so again the downward revision to growth forecasts for 2021 and upward revision to inflation forecasts for 2021-22 from the previous issue of these numbers a few months ago i don't think would come as any surprise at all so really very much looking more not to the policy statement at 1245 but to the press conference and how does Christine Lagarde tackle the fairly thorny issue of the yield move we've had of late she has you know comparative i guess for a lot of people to the likes of draggy not saying that she struggled but perhaps she's not quite as eloquent with her responses and that's room for an intraday prop speculator for potential opportunities so we'll be watching that 130 very very closely looking at the calendar for today the uk european morning is basically empty so nothing really to look forward to so it'd be just marking up your charts for some key technical levels and then you know awaiting the ECB event to happen two part of course the statement policy announcement coming out 1245 the press conference 130 the latter will be alongside us jobless claims i suspected at 725 000 today i don't think that really rocks the boat so to speak it's pretty much consistent of what we've been seeing of late so i wouldn't be looking for that to cause many real triggers in that respect then it's pretty quiet overall on the calendar and we do have in auction space some Italian paper coming to market but then 24 billion in the 30 year bond auction wraps up the three auctions from the us the 120 billion dollars we've had for the week i would say just given the way of which the three in the 10 year have gone i don't see any real issues that this 30 year will encounter so i don't really see that as too much of any type of risk event generally speaking and that is it so i'm going to let you guys get on with the session any questions at all for me just reach me in the discord room and the amplify live community or if you're watching this on youtube just feel free to leave a comment absolutely happy to help all right have a good day guys