 Good afternoon. I hope you had a nice lunch and We are now looking forward to sharing with you our perspectives on geopolitics and global trade what can be done today and We wanted to share with you what we believe is an Interesting corporate perspective on where global trade will go I am being joined by a illustrious panel which I will introduce in a few minutes and I'd like to kick us off with just three four slides on how we see the world evolving Introducing myself. My name is Nicolaus Lang. I'm a senior partner at BCG the Boston Consulting Group I'm leading BCG's global Advantage practice Which is dedicated to geopolitics and trade and international collaboration So when you advise corporate leaders, what is one of the most striking changes I have observed in the last five years is That the way how corporate leaders think about their business is moving away from a Mono dimensional perspective of the future to a multi-dimensional perspective to do of the future and that means that corporate leaders ask us about What are the scenarios of the future? How does the world in 2030 look like? And so based on this we have developed a few scenarios Which we believe could describe the future the first scenario is a scenario Which is called back to the future the scenario back to the future is a scenario which is kind of Reimagining the world we knew from 1990s 2000 a world geared Towards free trade a world where the Bretton Woods system and institutions were working still working and Companies that were actually seeing the world as relatively flat Remember, it's a time when Francis Fukuyama was speaking about the end of history The second scenario is what we would call the limited stalemate which is a continuation of the conflict in Eastern Europe between Russia and Ukraine and we have minister Kuliba speaking to us later in the afternoon and Of course, there's a view of saying given the static frontline given major elections in Russia Ukraine and US next year this war is not likely to end very soon Then there's a third scenario Which is called multipolar competition a Scenario where we see an increasing Emergence of three groups, and I'm not saying blocks deliberately. I'm not saying blocks First a Western group was US EU and some of allies in the Indo-Pacific Second an Eastern block and group between China and Russia and some allied countries Ranging from North Korea to Belarus and then a third group of countries Which is not recreating the movement of the non-aligns, but which shows that they want to be at a quiddistence Between these two groups and this is of course first and foremost India Indonesia But also countries in this region and in Africa And then there's a fourth scenario which a lot of corporate leaders always ask us about Which is actually the global escalation? And I think we discussed about this potential of a global escalation just before lunch And of course that would be the addition of a war in the Indo-Pacific To the current conflicts we see around the world So these are four scenarios Now the beauty with scenarios is that they're precisely wrong But generally right Now when we look at the scenarios going forward The key question is where do we see the future and what is the most likely scenario? Going through these four scenarios We definitely see a loss of steam when it comes to the back to the future scenarios Look at the chips act. Look at IRA Look at the challenges. We heard also this morning around WTO So having a world in 2030 that is similar to what we had Around the 1990s and 2000 is at least from our perspective relatively unlikely Second the limited stalemate we have seen movements in the last 12 months was increased Western AIDS in Ukraine although stalled now President Zelensky several times in the US and a clear focus on Continuing this war However, we are in a war of attrition Did you know that last year? We had tens of thousands of kilometers one from both sides Well, if you accumulate the movement of the armies in the last nine months No side has won more than 1000 square kilometers So the fact that we have a static front line Probably this war will at least continue for the next 12 to 18 months as if you look at the elections that stand before us Ukraine Russia US So this is something that will definitely impact us for the next years to come. Although hopefully we will reach Some kind of ceasefire Negotiations in the next years to come So the dominant scenario is a scenario of the multipolar world And when you look at what has happened in the last 12 months is a lot of signals go in this direction It's a multipolar world where we have President Xi traveling to Moscow in March President Putin traveling to Beijing last months. We have the emergence of the bricks and the expansion of the bricks We have a strong development Around the world of an independent thinking beyond the two blocks. We are looking at And last but not least in this multipolar world We have also seen the emergence of old conflicts in the last few weeks Nagorno-Karabakh Armenia Azerbaijan Kosovo Serbia and of course Israel Gaza So all this development show that the multipolar world is probably the highly scenario for 2030 On global escalation We are a little bit more cautious because we believe that global escalation at this stage Given economic development military unreadiness is less likely to happen So what does this mean for business? well, I Come with a half positive news When you look at the left-hand side of this chart you see the development of global trade in the next 10 years The good news is that global trade will grow by 2.3 percent per year You tell me well, that's actually not bad Well under the scenario back to the future between 1990 and 2010 trade was growing seven percent per year So we are at less than one-third of the gross So yes, we are growing but we are not growing as fast as we would grow in a free trade world plus geopolitics impact how trade route evolve Now I'm coming to a complex slide and it's my second the last slide But I want to share with you a few of these trade routes There are trade routes that will go massively down Obviously the trade route between Russia and you goes down by more than 200 billion euros Which is due to all the energy sanctions we see here but we see also a trade route between China and US going down and Obviously, we see also that the Brexit has proven not very useful for the UK Then you have trade routes that grow the yellowish ones grow but grow slowly under proportionally and The most interesting thing is that all the really strong trade routes are in the global south This is the picture of the future Where you see that one trillion dollar additional trade is emanating from Southeast Asia You see that India is playing an important role But you also see that the North Atlantic trade is booming considerably and you could Flatly say that the Europeans are replacing Russian pipeline gas by North American LNG. I think this is oversimplified But you see a shift of trade going on and looking at the winners next to Southeast Asia look at where Mexico stands Mexico is the big winner of nearshoring and French shoring in this world So let me conclude before I move to the panel. What do we see for corporate leaders? We see five no regret moves first Make sure that you diversify your supply chains The word I hear most in boardrooms currently is China plus one or China plus two Which means what is the alternative to China both as a market and as a supply chain? second and hence your navigational ability in a world of price volatility and inflation Third prepare your organization to work in different worlds Do you need an organization for China and one organization for India and one for Europe? The time where one headquarter was running the world is definitely over fourth Look at turbo-charging turbo-charging risk and cyber security and last but not least Built the geopolitical muscle in the corporate boardroom So in order to further develop this geopolitical muscle I'm very pleased to join this great panel Who with whom I'll have the pleasure to discuss over the next hour? The impact of geopolitics and global trade on the corporate boardrooms So I'll start with a brief introduction and then we'll go with the statements So I'm joined by Penny next to me who is with the Atlantic Council Penny You were before that ten years at UPS taking care of international affairs before that at city corp and Before in the US administration. We talked a lot about your perspective on How will trade change? I think you have a very also interesting perspective on the two last US administration And we look forward to hearing you view which one was more beneficial for trade tail You have been Korea's Minister of trade in the early 2010s You have been active in the actively promoting trade You have also been professor and Dean at the Korea National University and You are now advising companies in this all trade environment Nicola You are with total energy You started also in the French administration and then joined total energy 22 years ago You're now president of the whole production and Exploration activities. You have been in many different countries Working in places like Nigeria Myanmar Qatar and we discussed also in our preparation that you see a big power of Your business and your industry to really look at the development and building bridges going forward and J You have been at the Navy You have been diplomat in places like Pakistan and many other places And you have then moved to consulting and you are now heading veracity worldwide Which is a global geopolitical consultancy and risk consultancy and we have also the pleasure to work together on some instances So this is the group and let me go maybe in the order of the panel we have here with The perspectives that this group has on geopolitics and trade and so I'd like to invite Nicola for the first statement on how you see it from an Extractive industry perspective, which I think is the one of the industries that if there's an industry that already has a good geopolitical muscle It's definitely the extractive industry, but I think there are many other industries that can learn from you Over to you. Thank you Nicholas. Good afternoon everyone first. Let me say it's a pleasure to Join this panel and to share a few comments on how a company like total energy is managing geopolitical risks international risk And I'm going to start with that and after I want to make a few comments on how we see some opportunities in international trade and investment And finish with a few comments on energy transition in all this So total energy is a French company So we are born 100 years ago in a country where there is virtually no oil and gas resource So from the very beginning we had to go abroad, you know Work in different countries and learn how to manage geopolitical risk And you know when thinking about how we do that I came up with a five or six key principles The first one is about Compliance with our values And our first core value is the security and the safety of our people And it's impossible for a company to send a lot of people abroad in challenging environment if you know You don't ensure their safety and their security So we have golden rules. We have safety framework. We learn from experience and on this we apply everywhere Similarly One key principle for us to navigate into those those risks is to always stick to our compliance principles on ethics principles No matter what is the country? What is what is the context? And obviously to comply with international sanctions when they apply to our activities So that's principle number one compliance with our values Number two is pretty obvious is diversification So the company is working in 130 countries We you know, we like to diversify the way we allocate our capital We've set a principle for ourselves that we don't allocate more than 10% of our total capital employee in one single country For upstream investments are upstream investments. They are scattered between the America the Middle East Africa Europe Asia Pacific I think the biggest area for us is the Middle East and North Africa which is a bit less than 30% of our total production So we diversify similarly When doing our transition on investing in integrated power on renewables We make sure that we also diversify the allocation of the capital and we also diversify investments between deregulated markets and regulated market The third principle is we like the exposure to liquid markets Of course oil the oil market is a liquid market when you produce oil You know, the oil goes on a tanker and can be supplied to any country in the world for gas It's a bit more complicated because gas relies on heavy transportation infrastructure For gas We focus a lot of our investment in liquefied natural gas Which offers this flexibility? On this exposure to a liquid market, you know for liquefied natural gas You can redirect the production from one country to another The first one is about supply chain resilience In this moving world that is getting more and more fragmented We are careful to continue working with a wide array of contractors from different locations and of course the geographical footprint of the company helps us to do that We tend also, you know to develop long-term frame agreements with our contractors to provide visibility and to provide security of supply in a way to both sides The next one is about cost discipline and financial strengths We are in our industry exposed to high volatility, volatility of prices, you know The oil price can go up and down from $20 to $100 So this we don't control, we accept we don't control that, but what we control is our cost And our motto is to produce low-cost energy which is a key factor for us of resilience and strengths and the strengths of the balance sheet of course is also key for a company like Total Energy to weather crisis, which can have a pretty significant or severe impact at times On the last principle is It's not a principle. In fact, it's a principle of action is crisis anticipation on preparation so we spend quite a bit of time identifying and mapping our risks Making sure we have the right mitigations in place carrying out crisis management exercise based on a number of scenarios And this is what allowed us in fact to weather on number of the recent crisis If I take for example the COVID-19 pandemic We never stop production in any of our operational sites during the entire crisis but this is due basically to practice on anticipation on preparation The second comment I want to make is that private investment through long-term partnerships contributes to build bridges between companies between countries on those bridges They can not always but they can survive geopolitical crisis so what we're doing here for instance in the UAE where we have a partnership that we built with ad-nog for 80 years now Where people know each other Where we shared a lot of experience Where we of course invested in Abu Dhabi but also teamed with ad-nog to invest together abroad This type of bridge or this type of link is very solid And that's what we try to develop to make sure that our activities are resilient We have similar partnerships in many countries across Africa, across America, across the Middle East and Asia Pacific We also contribute to participate or like to participate in cross-border investments Good example of that is a project called Dolphin Gas pipeline between Qatar and the UAE which started 15 years ago Gas has continued to flow uninterrupted during 50 years despite ups and downs I would say a resilience also One way that we try we use to increase our resilience is integration In oil and gas We not only produce oil and gas but we also supply oil and gas to the people You take the example of Africa for instance in almost all African countries We have a substantial distribution network Which for us is a factor of robustness because it means we not only produce and export energy But we also supply energy to the people And when you bring something to the people basically they generally support your activities in a better manner so my last comment I'm watching the time is that in this changing global trade pattern one key factor is the energy transition and the need to address climate change In total energy we believe that our role or mission is to provide more energy with less emissions Why more energy because there is a growing population needed more energy But this more energy we want to supply it in a manner that is safer That makes energy available affordable to the people And when I was talking about controlling the cost and you know of our activity It's also a way to make energy supply affordable to the people less emissions I don't need to explain because of course we need to produce energy with What reducing The green house gas emissions particularly for ourselves the green house gas emissions related to our activities So what we call our scope one on two emissions so by doing this We are working not on our own, but we are working in partnerships With national companies in the countries in which we operate is the case here with adnock for instance where we cooperate on the identification on Elimination of missing emissions from from our operations We like also to develop multi-energy projects We have a large project Multi-energy project in Iraq that we started recently where We develop an oil production, but we also Gather on process natural gas for local power generation And we built a large-scale one gigawatt solar power generation plant to supply The local communities in the in Basra area So typically for us this kind of multi-energy project is a way to Contribute to the transition in a manner that is positive for the countries in which we operate And it's also a way for us to manage risk and to diversify What what we're doing I'm going to stop there and just to say that of course geopolitical risk and the risk associated with our investment is a key parameter in all the investment decision-making in the company and in the way we Undo or decide to launch projects I Thank you, Nikolai and I think the point which is also interesting is to see as well as you said building bridges and also investing in local communities is is I think a very important part of Avoiding risk not also from a corporate point of view, but from a societal point of view. Thank you So Penny you we discussed about the US. I think the US has been one of the key drivers and shapers of global trades in 1945 has been at the beginning of the 44 beginning of the Bretton Woods Conference and bringing the world together trying to Define some rules of the game now lately. We have seen that these rules of the game have changed or are changing You have been looking at that for many years from different vantage points from corporate from government So what's your view on geopolitics and trade and what can be done today also in the light of what will happen next year Great Well, thank you So I believe trade is a force for good And I'm so pleased to be here today because I can actually say the word trade Which you can't really say in Washington DC at the moment Everything supply chains Economic security other issues, but we don't really talk about trade Earlier today. We saw some fantastic slides and some presentations about how trade has contributed to global wealth creation and we've also seen how trade has been impactful at Helping poverty decline globally because the lowest 25% of our populations are the ones that are most impacted by the Regressive trade policies like tariffs and non-tariff barriers that go into effect when COVID-19 hit People suddenly had to grapple with the fact that everything wasn't available Instantaneously, I know I had to deal with my kids who didn't understand why they couldn't get exactly what they wanted exactly at that moment Because of the overwhelming But slightly odd demands we all had during that period trade and supply chains were actually quite resilient during COVID-19 and while we may not have been able to get the hair clippers we needed or The Peloton machines or some of the other things that all of us wanted when we were at home making bread and trying to do jobs And educate children at the same time supply chains generally Adjusted because international trade and the rules generally worked and I think that that is not understood or appreciated enough by folks What people have focused on are some of the export controls and export restrictions that went into place Some of the port issues that arose the hard infrastructure Issues that arose because it is people that are behind the movement of goods and when people can't get to their jobs because of COVID it does bollocks up things a little bit and then there was also in some cases really extreme demand for things that we had to retool Factories and other things to do So when I think about the geopolitics and when I look forward I think what impacts Is really coming into the fore is the lack of trust that developed coming out of this so while trade moved relatively well There was some distrust that came up building on what had been developing over time already But it really I think came to the fore coming out of COVID-19 and you can particularly see that around the vaccine issue particularly in the global south so That's resulted in a whole lot of supply chain resilience groups being developed and a whole lot of other things that are going on But that current geopolitical situation and the tensions that are there between some of the big countries is Really leading to these debates as you've pointed out about de-globalization Reglobalization or or maybe everything is just a lot of Hot air that we're there we're talking about and nothing's really changing. I Think trade is like water it finds its way around the rocks and the river But there are ways to control Guide Sometimes damn water, but as long as there is demand or gravity The water will continue to flow and what we're seeing now is governments trying to control the flows of trade in ways that I think We're pointed out earlier using export controls using sanctions using indirect means using investment Outbound investment regimes and other regimes all of that is coming to the fore to try to control where we are today So as a result, I think trade is becoming more regional both physically and cultural and so Let me turn now a bit to where we are in the US. So There was a great piece last week. It was a comedy skit On a show in the United States called Saturday Night Live And it was a skit about George Washington trying to rally the troops to fight for life Liberty and the pursuit of the Americans ability to use their own series of weights and measures and it went through a whole discussion about how the Americans wanted to use Kind of irrational slightly random weights and measures whether it be Fahrenheit whether it be pounds whether it be tons Whether it be any of the measures we use in the United States and it pointed out how we wanted to be able to do Exactly what we wanted to do and even though it wasn't a hundred percent rational That was what our goal was and I think sometimes when I look at our trade policy It reminds me of how Americans have adopted our series of weights and measures in the United States It's not always in our best interest, but by gosh, we're gonna do it so Jake Sullivan recently published a piece in foreign affairs talking about our current US foreign policy and where we're going to Reestablish us leadership, but he didn't mention trade once in the piece If you look at other US government publications, they've pretty much stopped mentioning exports as well So for the Biden administration Global leadership is back and there really are trying to rebuild friendships with people around the world But They're also trying to grow the US economy as they say from the middle out the bottom up And that seems to be taking precedence in terms of how they're approaching our International economic relations So they're trying to develop a whole series of new economic tools that will help them to deepen these Relationships with countries but not sacrifice the middle class So we see things like ipath This week they're doing the America's leaders summit all of which are tools that are generally not binding do not fall under any kind of enforcement mechanism and Frankly, it may not be durable if the administration changes in a year's time so Very innovative trying to be very creative, but at the end of the day Unclear how durable these new things they're developing are going to be The WTO has been largely ignored and neglected by the administration and we can see that where it is That may be the best-case scenario for the WTO at the moment is that as we we look forward And as we also look forward, there's a heavy focus on manufacturing and you had the chart on good on goods But services is a huge part of the US economy and services does continue to grow But the administration made some kind of surprising announcements last week about digital trade that I think were quite confusing given I think Where the US is on digital trade? So people are asking will a Biden 2.0 be more open to trade? I I'm not convinced if you look at Biden's record as a senator and his voting record You will see that he's got a very mixed record with regards to trade And I know a lot of people are pinning hopes that maybe Biden if he stays on or wins reelection Will do something ambitious. I just don't I'm not convinced that that's where we're going And I think that where we are today is probably the best-case scenario for the US with regards to trade Let me conclude with companies So I think what became also really clear out of this is that companies didn't know where all their risk were and risk Generally companies you can scenario plan risk or generally not what the last crisis was It's something new usually something that surprises you and while it might occasionally be a black swan What hits you is usually something that's within your control so supply chains were an issue not necessarily because of other things but because Didn't really rise to the C-suite in the past So so being able and sitting down and doing creative scenario planning Looking at some of the issues in a much more thoughtful way I think are really important for companies and I know others on this panel will be discussing some of the specifics around How to do that moving forward? So with that I could like to conclude thank you Nicholas for the time and thank you all in the audience I know we're post-lunch. It's always the hardest lot to have at a conference. So thank you for your attention Thank you very much Penny and we'll try to be as interesting and entertaining as possible to overcome post-lunch inertia I think just on this last point which you mentioned it's interesting I met one with a CEO and maybe he has a very focused view of the world But he said to me, you know, it's interesting because I have three new topics on my agenda the last ten years So ten years ago digital appeared on my agenda five years ago sustainability appeared on my agenda and geopolitics appeared on my agenda on February 24th love of last year Which I found interesting that this is kind of a five-year increment and he and And that's also something which we see that this kind of geopolitical muscle needs to be developed So let me know turn to tail. Thank you very much for coming over from Seoul and give us the perspective of Trade you have been very much engaged in global trade negotiations Both on an incentive perspective also on a protecting perspective You have been as I said the minister for trade in Korea And you have a very interesting perspective on the future trade regimes. So please Well, thank you Nicholas Actually, I'm the only one who doesn't know much about business Even though I'm advising our clients about the geopolitics, you know and some Registration introduced by United States and EU, but I'm not really in the you know area of business So bear that in mind this this afternoon. I want to share some of my thoughts on the evolving landscape of the world trade environment and As we all know very well, we all talk about this in the first session and second session the global trade environment has been undergoing Unpresented transformation and as a trade economist, I believe the most fundamental Change is the increasing prevalence of negative views toward the globalization and free trade among the general public There is a widespread perception in many countries that domestic industries and labors have suffered from domestic companies overseas investment and excessive inputs from abroad Since they think that these have caused huge unemployment rate and also growing income inequality Unfortunately politicians have strategically promoted these negative sentiment on Globalization and free trade to capitalize on the psychological state of law income voters predominantly composed of workers for their advantages in the election Indeed this has led to protectionist policies in many countries that prioritize domestic production over Corporate overseas investment and inputs from foreign country Another critical impact Another critical aspect impacting the world trade environment. We all talk about this is a strategic competition between the US and China Following the imposition of extra tariffs on inputs from China by former president Trump US China disputes have broadened the scope of national security to include economic and technology areas US considers steel and aluminum even crucial element in its national security and is actively engaging in securing its dominant position in strategically advanced the technology sectors such as semiconductor Electric vehicles EV batteries and AI and so on In addition the global companies we all talk about this now have experienced real challenges stemming from the COVID-19 pandemic and the war between Russia and Ukraine and they recognize the imperative need to restructure their supply chain At the same time major countries are actively promoting initiatives related to various social and environmental objectives including enhancing labor and human rights and reducing carbon emission and the protecting the environment Let me now provide some examples of major countries policy majors US has introduced chips and science act along Allocating 52 billion dollars in subsidies to the semiconductor sector The EU has also Introduced the EU chips act which provides substantial amount of subsidies to increase the global market share of its semiconductor It is crucial to notice that countries Previously critical of China for providing heavy government subsidies to specific sectors now give themselves industrial subsidies to promote their domestic industries of course China Continues to provide the government subsidies to key advanced technology sectors This means that the industrial policies may be revived triggering unfair trade activities among major countries US restrict exports of semiconductor and semiconductor equipment to China Which is hugely affecting the Korean companies which are operating in China Samsung and SK high Knicks are a producing semiconductor in China US also introduced We in Korea we call IRA, but now you get IRA IRA which is inflationary reduction act which include provisions of Provisions discriminating against electric vehicles assembled outside of North America and EVs equipped with batteries manufactured with parts or minerals from the so-called foreign countries of concern Which may include China at the same time leading nations worldwide have advocated For policies to establish stable supply chain Particularly for critical raw materials. For example, the United States is endeavoring to establish a critical minerals club With the EU through the trade and technology council another club with in the Pacific Economic Framework member states Also, EU has introduced critical raw material act to limit its dependence on a single country For critical raw material to a maximum of 65% As we can see Major countries are utilizing subsidies trade and investment measures to achieve their National objectives in various areas including national security the economy Technology society and more However, some of these measures may violate the multilateral trade norms of the WTO So change the subsidies agreement and the principles of most favored nation and national treatment Certain measures included in the US IRA are good examples of these violations Nonetheless, the World Trade Governance Particularly the multilateral trading system of the WTO is not effectively addressing these issues as we all know WTO dispute settlements system remains incomplete because there's no judges at the appellate party since the end of 2019 and Appointing the appellate party judges has been unsuccessful So even if WTO member wins a dispute through the panel investigation The final legal result will be pending until the appellate body which currently has no judges Can make a ruling Therefore, it would be meaningless to accuse any members for their violation of the WTO norms and principles For the time being so we now find ourselves in a world where major nations Adapting various unilateral actions Focusing on their domestic political agenda to achieve economic as well as non-economic objectives The negative consequences of these unilateral actions on the world trade will progressively escalate if this trend continues world trade order will remain fragmented increasing uncertainty in the global trade environment under these Circumstances it will be practically impossible for the whole WTO members to discuss sensitive issues However doing nothing would not be a desirable option either So we should note that the WTO member not WTO allows member states to take unilateral actions If fair and non-discriminatory implement implementation of these actions is guaranteed Considering all this it would be crucial for countries with a similar interest and positions to engage in transparent and unbiased discussions on various issues including new commercial rules And come up with the agreements Of course these agreements should be open to non-participating countries that may wish to exceed later many trade experts Consider these so-called open prelateral agreements as the second best option for addressing important issues at the WTO So in conclusion, I would like to note that serious efforts from major Trading nations urgently needed to respond to this crisis situation In the world trade environment and mitigate uncertainties in the global trade environment. Thank you very much. This is all Thank you, and I think it's it's real that we as you said you speak about a crisis environment I think the fact that WTO is not active anymore creates a vacuum, which we also see obviously in a Kind of a multipolar world where I think the clear institutions that used to Steer that global economy or have been massively weakened. Yeah Let me move to Jay You're working with many many corporates around the world providing them geopolitical advice in every country of this world almost 150 150 So what's your view on the current state of geopolitics and trade? Well, it's a privilege to be here and I want to first say thank you very much to the organizers Both of our panel, but of course of the broader conference I'll attempt in my time to synthesize some of the conversations we're having with Corporate leaders and Investors that are very much engaged in trade very much engaged in decisions around capital financial flows and What some of the things they're thinking about when it comes to the topics that we've been discussing here These are traders. These are investors. So first and foremost, I would say Taking your framework Nicholas of Turbo-charging risk management, they are seeking to build a taxonomy to map the various risks that they face and Financial firms have done this over the course of the last 25 years increasingly well in part due to regulatory Requirements that have been placed on them Non-financial institutions are relatively new at this and when they think about risk mapping Typically they think about operational risk. They think about tax related risk They think about jurisdiction related risk. They don't think about geopolitical risk And so as you say Nicholas, this is very new on the agenda And so what we've been encouraging our clients to do is to very much identify Where they have exposure in this respect But that's not the only step you can take when it comes to to risk. You have to prioritize your risks You have to dimensionalize What you think might come to pass and what you need to focus on and there are all kinds of ways you could dimensionalize risk obviously whether it's going to Come into your life whether there's a likelihood or a probability of that risk occurring and also what its impact will Be and in the upper right you can start to then focus on what the things are that you should begin to work on You should definitely Build crisis management capabilities around those risks in the event that you have to deal with them And this is to your point penny many companies May have something on the table something on the shelf But they don't actually do the work of testing themselves and you mentioned this point also Nicola of really exercising their capabilities through simulations around specific scenarios and Finally, they have to be real with themselves to know where their gaps are to be able to build the capabilities that work are required in The event these risks actually were to come to pass So what risks are we talking about? From a geopolitical perspective, we really break this down into three different categories The three categories are country level or even sub-country level risk The second is regional risk or regional flash points and the third are some Macro global trends that are very difficult to get your head around but which are extremely important to plan for Especially if you're in the business of doing strategy So businesses are probably best when it comes to geopolitical risk around country level topics or Sub-country level topics. Why is that? Well, if you're a total you're going into a country You know, you need to engage with the political leadership. You know, you need to know about the political opposition You know, you need to know about the regulatory environment You know, you need to know about what policy changes might be coming down the line You know, you need to understand the stakeholder groups that could affect your position and your social license to operate So I would say historically of all of the risks that might be identified Country level risks are something that companies can do quite well through government relations capabilities through communications capabilities and Just as a matter of Requirement for going into a new environment or maintaining relationships with local partners All of those factors I identified at the beginning knowing your risks prioritizing them Building crisis management capabilities testing them. They all very much are important to do in the country level But I would say many of our non financial clients actually do this quite well Increasingly well, especially in fields like energy fields like mining fields like telecommunications Advanced industries such as semiconductors renewables These are all sectors where companies face real risk at the country level But they identify it and they're working on it The two additional types of geopolitical risk that are much more difficult to to work on are the regional flash points and the kind of global longer-term trends There's been discussion over the course of our panel and previous panels And I know over the course of the next couple days around the major flash points Around the world today, but the three that our clients are most concerned about relate to the war in Ukraine relate to instability and that open conflict in the Middle East and relate to potential for the worsening of relationships between not just the United States and China but broadly speaking the West and the emerging Relationships that China is building with its closest partners Each one of these has elements of instability Yet each one of these is very difficult to predict And so you have to as you're thinking about geopolitical risk around regional flash points or these types of Potential conflict scenarios you have to bound your thinking around specific assumptions and around what will impact your business and this is very difficult to do and it requires frankly really Difficult conversations about what the business impact will be not just for your company But for your suppliers and your sub suppliers and your partners and others it might be affected through second and third order impact of these situations Unraveling unraveling further and in the case of Ukraine in the case of the Middle East in the case of the relationships between the United States and G7 let's say China and other countries working together with China. There is some degree of Ambiguity and that ambiguity needs to be identified and worked through The third category and I'll be brief But I could spend lots of time on this category because it's incredibly interesting It's around where is our world going so if these flash points were to come to pass or if they were to have specific types of impact on companies What does this mean for the future of our world and we really see five different? Macro trends happening as a result of the way our world is structured today Some of which are very much aligned with what you talked about Nicholas in your presentation And some are maybe additive to what you were we're saying But our first relates to domestic instability That's resulting from some of this geopolitical tension and really questions around liberalism versus populism or liberalism versus a more autocratic type of government. How do you best? How do you best understand the demands of your population changing nature of populations, especially youth populations under represented populations? And how do you ensure that you have the means by which to address those issues and provide a valve for those to be to be vocalized Many countries are facing difficulties around this Not the least of which is our country and penny alluded to some of the The factors related to that but there is a degree of nihilism among the youth population of the United States Where they just want to burn the house down There is a degree of just lack of engagement where in a Participatory democracy that's in fact very dangerous and we see this as a growing trend throughout especially the West and parts of East Asia second major Macro trend is around the energy transition and of course you focus on this every day Nicola But there's so much discussion if we're moving towards a green economy How are we going to manage where we are getting from where we are now to where we need to be? And what does that mean for our mix in terms of oil and gas? What does that mean for a mix in terms of renewables? How are we going to get access to critical minerals to fuel battery production? electric vehicle production semiconductor production and all the trade Related implications related to that the protectionist instincts that are increasingly paramount. That's a macro trend the third relates to the post-World War two Security order which is increasingly being questioned if not actively undermined and this also relates to the Economic security of the post-World War two order Nicholas you mentioned the the Bretton Woods system which of course now is also being called into question Not just by those who would be against it But that but by those who would ignore it frankly not seek to not seek to engage in that respect and The fifth and we can talk about this maybe on the sidelines But it's maybe on the minds of many people here and that's the formation of blocks This concept of of blocks is still very much Being developed. It's it's it's not well-formed, but there are blocks ideologically There are blocks in terms of interests and there are blocks in terms of security and economic relationships and A major macro trend as far as we're concerned of these blocks are being increasingly well-defined They're increasingly being reified and they're increasingly being used to define one group against another group how you make sense of all this in terms of your risk management and Your ability to scenario plan and your ability to understand how this could impact your business is incredibly important and Something we spend a lot of time on with our clients. I'll stop there out of interest of time But I hope that that's offered some food for thought if you're out there Representing a business or if you're in government thinking about how you can better work with your your business colleagues I think you Jay, and I think the blocks refer back to this multi polar competition We have discussed earlier and I think I clearly see this development as well going and Shaping also how corporations work. We'll do a quick Q&A here on the group before we open to the room and maybe Nikola one question We heard a lot about Scenario planning about thinking about the future about being prepared and of course you work in highly geopolitically shifting environment, so I don't know would you have a quick view of two three key learnings you Have gathered by reacting to geopolitical shifts in the past Well, I would say the first learning is that the risk generally materialize when you or where you don't expect it Nothing three years ago, I'm not sure we had for instance large pandemics in our and we're doing exactly what Jay described, you know this Risk mapping with likelihood severity, etc. I don't think we had a major pandemic in our risk mapping I don't think we expected what happened in Russia. I'm not sure we expected what happened in Israel and Gaza So the risk materialize why we don't expect it. I think the second thing we learn for sure is that You know our principle to limit the capital allocation in one country is a good principle And we've learned it the hard way In Russia On the I think the third thing we've learned And certainly that we still need to improve but you know, we are learning is the importance of communication And explaining what we are doing and why we are doing it Very good. Thank you So many you alluded already to Biden 2.0. Now I have to ask the question What's your view on trade if someone else's wins this election? So I think in general what I would say is is that Where we are at the moment on trade and I think it's a little like the climate change issue I mean the climate has changed and the best we can do at this point on climate is to keep what we have today if we stop It's it's almost impossible to go back the climate all of us had as children and I think the same as to on trade I look at the trade environment both with Biden and with potential Trump as What we have today may be The best we can hope for Particularly for those that are adherents to more traditional trade And trade instruments. I think both may look at a second term as Opportunities to continue on the trajectories they've been on Trump has already talked about a 10% potentially 35% flat tariff depending on whether you're with a free trade partner or not Biden has talked about several other things I think and having talked to the two individuals being rumored by both to be the US TR and a Second administration for both. I think that it's Where we are today and where we may be Is something we need to watch if I could one thing I want to just follow up on super quickly is I think one thing That's really important coming out of the conversation that we've had is how important transparency has become in companies and Maybe digitalization will help with this but going to the risk point I think that many people are aware of but your carbon footprint the human rights of your supply chain And a lot of other issues Transparency around your your operations has become incredibly important and is incredibly hard to do so that's something that Digitalization may provide some opportunities for in the future, but I see that as something companies will continually need to plan for moving forward Great. Thank you very much penny. So we have another five minutes and like to open to the audience for Q&A's We have here a very diverse panel. We have one question here. Maybe we can get the mic to the lady Thank you for your very exciting panel. My name is Mario Gibi Loa and I have a question specially for Professor Lang but any of you can answer you mentioned the The multiple world and as we know the bricks had their geopolitical moments a few weeks ago They account for that what we say we hear 40% of the world GDP so Do you consider the bricks and the new doors? They have been opening like a common currency and you know in the a new World Financial architecture all these things do you consider that a threat or? This is a very positive development for trade And the second question is what could become a danger coming from the bricks. Thank you so, yeah I'll take another two questions and then we try to answer there's a second question here third one here and then we'll try to question to director of total How do you? anticipate the decline of oil consumption because of electric engines and because of a green Economy and how will it affect the oil prices? Okay, thank you. That's the second question Equal out there was a third question and then we'll start answering just trying to manage time Can we have the mic in the middle for the gentleman Thank you very much for this exciting panel. I'm speaking from the viewpoint of former and current member of Several boards of large international companies and I wanted to Ask you whether we you shared this observation that I'm going to make and react on it Probably one of the most striking things when it comes to Strategic risks in the very past years has been the realization by very large multinational companies that they were not Global companies opening working Globally and freely, but they were belonging to a nationality They all Western companies suddenly had to give up their activities in Russia for instance And they realized that they have to abide to a certain camp of course they are making the same assessment with China and other areas of threat and They are taking They are taking consequences out of the situation in reshaping Supply chains the way they work at making themselves more immune to those political risks Okay, as you have advised now Are they not by doing that sort of creating a kind of self-fulfilling prophecy and Paving the way for possible Increase of the likelihood of conflicts by reducing if the very concrete way through the way they operate the Increasing the possibilities of conflict. Okay. Thank you very much So we'll try to answer every question in one minute to keep time. So Nikola Do you want to take the question on energy transition in oil production? Yes, the decline in oil consumption. We we don't have a crystal ball a total energy, but we expect, you know, the oil Demand to reach its peak during this current decade and then to decline And to decline to a level, you know to be to be net zero by 2050 The oil demand You know could be let's say 20-25% of what it is today, there will still be an oil demand because you know, there are some products that you cannot substitute actually Particularly for petrochemicals, but then hence, you know the need for compensation of this residual demand The big uncertainty is on the pace of the decline on how fast it's going to be on regarding the question on Oil price impact of all this what's important to to have in mind is that An oil field is not producing flat over time. So there is a natural decline of the production which is four to five percent per year So it means that if you stop investing in your projects in 10 years from now The production will have decreased by 40 percent So basically the price the old price In order to keep it under control or at an acceptable level and it's a question of affordability of energy Companies need to continue investing in new development to offset the decline or at least to offset the decline partly You know when when the demand is is decreasing Well, I hope it Thank you, but there was a question about by reshaping supply chains Are we ink and by segregating supply chain? Are we increasing the risk of a conflict? Any 30 seconds 30 seconds what you you So I think the question was also about nationalism and US companies reacting You know quickly on the Russia situation by pulling out. I think in short. I would say yes when I read Jake Sullivan's foreign affairs piece There's things in there. They don't mention the word trade, but there's other things in there that to me look like companies are becoming part of The industrial national security strategy of the United States in a way that I think limits Freedoms in some ways and I do think it's something companies need to look at very very carefully Thank you. Do you chose the companies are very quick in responding to this kind of restrictions and that many Korean companies are investing to have a stable supply chain into a Resource rich countries like Canada Australia. There are lots of investment is being made by Korean companies Just you know to establish supply stable supply chain or critical minerals or raw materials and diversifying Jay before I answer and turn bricks. What's what's your you just say? There are a couple of additional factors to watch out for One is the incredible upwelling of interest among stakeholders that were very vocal in the case of the Russia pullout Putting a lot of pressure on boards a lot of pressure on executive teams through various means direct engagement social media and through politicians and And this was this was facilitated in part by Active tracking by many organizations that were looking at how Compliant individual companies were with the spirit of the need to To move out of out of Russia and in the case of China One can easily imagine something similar happening depending on what the scenarios that we're talking about the other pieces The sanctions regime that was put in place not just by the United States But also by the European Union by the United Kingdom and others Was sufficiently? Broadly defined so as to encourage a conservative approach on the part of individual companies so that they could ensure they didn't run afoul of sanctions compliance and We can see that although that makes it much more difficult to To to control if you're the sanctioning Government from a company perspective it makes you want to listen to your lawyers who you're telling who we're telling you Don't don't incur any risk when it comes to sanctions do the thing that's easiest and in many cases It was just to leave the market. Yeah, obviously in the case of China will be a much more difficult conversation Given how embedded supply chains are market considerations are but it's definitely on the minds of corporate leaders Good. Thank you very much, and I think on break still Our view is that there is a very positive potential in bringing that together I think if you look both from a trade perspective from a financial perspective from an energy perspective, I think bricks has hugely kind of almost doubled its energy base by the expansion that was decided This year and so from our perspective, I think it has much more to win than to be in any case a danger So, yeah, we had had a fast-paced discussion here on global trade when you said it's Forceful good. I think we still believe in that I would like to thank my panelists for this very broad perspective for you for your engagement And I look further to very interesting discussions over the next few days. Thank you