 So what you want to do tomorrow, what I'm going to try to do tomorrow, if there is a dip in Amazon into the rising. Welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process and own your future. Hey guys, good evening everybody. Welcome to another edition of the AccessaTrader.com nightly wrap up show up. Everybody is doing well. So after nearly a 7% rise in the NASDAQ 100 last week, very, very important. They reclaimed the 20 day moving average and the question was, can they keep it right? Can they keep it because they live with prosperity and can we push forward? Because again, we had evidence going all the way back to January, February, March the 16th that once we reclaimed the 20 day moving average, we had a pretty aggressive three week rally. The question was, can we continue from last week? And there's kind of a good news, bad news type of situation that we're looking at, especially going into tomorrow's session. The good news is, after being up nearly 7%, the NASDAQ was down a fraction today. The dip this morning was bought, the NASDAQ spent, I would say the majority of the day teetering positive and negative territory, nothing really exaggerated, nothing really crazy. The one thing that we saw today was the volatility really just calmed down, right? What was the last time you saw the NASDAQ composite down 40 points on the day, right? It felt like every day for the last 3, 4, 5 months, we saw up 300, down 500, down 300. It was just kind of all over the place. And today was the first time organically that we actually held the previous day's gain, right? Previous day's area, which put in a higher low from the previous day. It held the rising 20 day moving average and actually took out the previous day's high before kind of settling with a fractional loss. That's the good news, right? That is absolutely the good news. And if you look at the majority of the names, it was kind of a mixed bag. So you didn't see declines today of stocks getting absolutely massacred. You saw orderly moves down. So for example, Tesla, right? You know, Tesla had an incredibly big run last week and the stock was down a dollar, right? That's absolutely huge, right? That's a bullish, bullish thing. Even a stock, for example, like a Facebook, right? That didn't exactly have the greatest couple of quarters. It held its gains only down 80 cents after a run from $80 a share all the way up to... I'm scared. I knew the chart looked weird. Even Facebook, let's correct that again, that had a run from $176 all the way to the 200. Literally almost the 200 only gave back to like a dollar and change. So that's the bullish part. The worst part that's going to come up for us. And this is kind of where we talk about self-responsibility, right? Self-control. The bad part, what's about that happen is, and again, it's not that bad. It's more discipline and oriented. The stock market needs to brief, right? And again, if you're a brand new trader, if you're an inexperienced trader, if you're still part of the whole honeymoon, is it Monday yet, right? That whole situation, every single day, your testosterone levels, even you ladies, right? They're on overload, right? The market goes up, you know, 930, if you do put on 75 positions by 930, you feel like the day is wasted. And the problem is, you're ultimately going to be your own worst enemy, because again, you don't know the difference. And it's not your fault, it's just lack of experience. But you don't know the difference yet between premium, rest, distribution, bad, good, or indifferent. You just don't know. Every single thing that you see is just one day. Stock market, all you know, opens up at 931, right? Excuse me, 930, it ends at four, and you're just happy to be running around like a chicken without head anywhere in between. But this is the area of the market after a 7% run. Stocks need a rest, right? Whether that rest comes in one day, two days, three days, we don't know, right? But the longer we build above this 20-day moving average, the higher probability will continue to rally. Now, the question is, and that's the million-dollar question, and you'll probably get different answers and responses. But the million-dollar question is, can you be responsible enough to kind of wait for the cycle, right? For this kind of cycle of waiting and catching a breath to kind of move away, right? Are you able enough to have to display self-control that you don't need to trade every single second of the day knowing that the market needs a rest after a really big 7% move that you'll probably need one or two more days for these stocks to kind of catch their breath, right? And then finally start taking out the top of the channels. The hardest thing for a new trader to do and to really understand and embrace is, again, the market is open, but just because the stock market is open is not a recipe for you to start throwing chips in the middle of the table. Again, when we talk about it, this will make a difference how you trade. It's all about value. So if the stocks that you are trading has a smaller amount of value, not because they're not good stocks, not because they can't make a bigger move in the future because they need a rest, right? And when you saw the cues go from the last, you know, four days from 282 all the way to up to 311 today, okay, while taking out the previous days high, again, you have to imagine they're tired. Again, I've been using this analogy for years. Pretend you just ran a 26-mile marathon, right? You feel good about yourself. You got your hands up. You're congratulating yourself, but you're tired as hell, right? And as soon as you cross the finish line, they tap you on the shoulder and say, hey, by the way, it's not, you know, it's not a marathon. It's a triathlon. Now you have to swim five miles and you have to bike another 26 miles. You're going to be exhausted, right? And that's exactly what we are right now. We are in kind of the, you just finished, right? Because we crossed the finish line here above the 20-day moving average. You finished the marathon. Now take a breath. Take a breath, rehydrate, get your carbon taken, right? We are about to have another swim and you're about to cycle another, you know, 25 miles. And that's the stage that we're in right now. So there's a good chance, there's a good chance that you'll probably see yourself in a situation that you're going to see tomorrow some stocks that are strong, some stocks that are weak, some stocks that are very, very strong, some stocks that are very, very weak and you're going to turn around and try to play the guessing game. Well, what happens first? Well, the market is overbought. Look at the move in the market and then the other side of the spectrum is, while the market is just taking a very valuable rest, I think the next couple of days is going to resume. So I think technically you have to give the bulls the benefit of the doubt. If you guys remember this 302 level that we talked about last couple of days, it got reclaimed. The problem is we didn't close at 303. The problem is we closed at 309, right? And that's the whole thing. So technically the market can actually pull back all the way to this 303.65 level and as long as it doesn't close under, you have to give the bulls the benefit of the doubt. So for example, the first thing we talked about and then Nasdaq, I wouldn't say gap down. I don't want to use the word gap down, but the market was lower this morning and I said, look, we're patiently waiting for channels, upside channels to develop. I want to give the bulls every benefit of the doubt after they reclaim the 20-day moving average. Is it possible? And that's exactly what we had today. Is it possible an inside day could develop, right? But something should wake up. And that's exactly what happened today. You know, with their pivots today, there was, I missed the huge window today, absolutely huge. And the more I look at the window, I want to throw up. I physically want to, if I can right now, I would throw up all over me. Can you guess out of all these pivots, right? Can you guess out of all these pivots which one I missed? Like really, really missed. Can you guess? Can you guess? Can you guess? Right? Can you guess? Yeah. So the market had an inside day. It absolutely had an inside day, which is super duper bullish. Most names didn't do anything, as you can imagine. There was some names. It was a one smaller cap stock. It really, really exploded. The big move was Amazon, you know, Square never got to 91. NVIDIA, I also missed at the open. I missed the window. Let's just say that much. The biggest two were 89 on NVIDIA at the open. They went from 89 to 92 and Amazon. All Amazon did was put up 125 points. Other than that, it just literally went straight up. There wasn't a downtick. It literally went straight up and I missed the whole trade, which absolutely sucks. But here's the good news, right? I didn't go for the CD setups. Those setups, they're irrelevant. I did try to bounce Tesla a couple of times off the 60 minute support. The first one, I lost like three in change. The second one, I made like four in change. So it was like a complete cup of coffee. It's kind of an irrelevant day. And the most important part it is for me today was digesting the information. So even though I didn't win the war today, for example, I think a lot of traders when they're trading macro channels will kind of agree with me, even though the war wasn't won today because there just wasn't an abundance of follow-through today, we are still materialistically okay. Nothing has changed from Fridays closed. And the most important part is the longer we continue to build over the 20-day moving average, the higher probability we're going to continue. So that's something we want to watch. And the most important part, guys, and again, kind of write this down. As long as we don't close below 303, right? You see that guys? This 303 level, 3036. Let's just call it 303. As long as we don't close below 303, you have to give the bulls the continued benefit of the doubt. If we close below 303, then yes, there's a chance we start rolling over and going back to the five and 10-day moving average. So I know a lot of you guys caught some things. I basically had, you know, a non-event type of day. You know, I guess if I were to caught Amazon, would I turn around and not really care what happened to the rest of the day? Probably, but again, you can't wish things into your account. So that's that. So let's talk about the pivots today. 91, I was watching Square, never got there. NVIDIA, I missed at the open, went from 89 to 92 in a matter of seconds. Adobe never even got close to 429. It sold off pretty quickly. Apple, not a big move at all. Apple, you know, late in the day, started spiking up one from 150. We're at about 60, 70 cents, nothing there. AMAT never came close to 120. Disney did okay. Disney did okay here. 109.40 needs to build. I believe we talked about Disney on the weekend update. I could be wrong. I'm such a little... So it confirmed this 109.40, went to 111 and change. It still looks pretty good. If you're still holding a runner, good job there. Lucid, right? Lucid, we're talking about Lucid. We're talking about Lucid. Lucid, $20 rejected twice, needs to build. Here was Lucid. Lucid's not really my cup of joe. So Lucid, you know, took out the 20, you know, traded up to 2070. Still looks higher. I figure reclaimed 21. Amazon, again, excuse me, I'm still cleaning up the throop in my mouth. All I did was miss a hundred point move. On one tick, by the way. It felt like on one candle. So yeah, other than that, you know, it was great. Tesla never got up to this level here. I'm still watching over the next couple of days. Had a big, big run. Was only down, you know, only down like a buck today, which is great. We want to see this thing kind of go sideways a little bit. BKSY, this was the big one for all you guys. And again, this is when we talk about pivots. You could trade a $2 stock and you could trade a $2,000 stock. As long as the $2 stock has a range and real volume, you're going to be okay. So BKSY free small cap lovers, 287 and 297 big areas. Here was BKSY, big move. Really, really big move. Took out the 87, took out the 97. I said there was a shot of 380, got the 373. Just big, big move there on BKSY. Yeah, we're still watching Tesla never, never confirmed. Take on the way up. I was joking around, you guys are rich. Again, this is not my thing, so I didn't take it. And that's it. And that's it. So the question going into tomorrow's session is number one, how long is this distribution period going to last? Sometimes after a major market move, okay, they could last for two, three days, which is very, very normal, right? Channels are going to contract. Or they could just continue, have a res date today and continue tomorrow. That's the best case scenario. The worst case scenario, we have another day or two of distribution. Now, when that happens, the one thing that you are going to encounter, especially if you're a new trader, especially because you don't have enough screen time, you don't know the difference between a premium session and the markets open, right? If you're trading for a long time, you do. You know exactly what that is. And the longer we rest, the higher probability you are going to chop yourself up. Because you're going to see the market go up. You're going to see the market go down. The market's long, market's short. The market's long, the market's short. Market's not a short, okay? Until we close below 63 on the Qs, excuse me, 303 on the Qs, the market's not a short. Every name needs to, anything strong needs to be bought on DIP. So for example, Amazon, maybe I won't screw it up tomorrow, right? Amazon broke out today above this 2317 level, right? I'm very petty. I don't forgive, I don't forget. So what you want to do tomorrow, what I'm going to try to do tomorrow, if there's a DIP in Amazon into the rising 60 minute support, that's what we're going to try to take along there. Because again, they want to try to run it is, well, not try to run it. They're running it now ahead of, I think the Thursday going into Friday split, right? So they're going to try to run it there. So I think that's the value. A name like Qualcomm, you know, looks pretty good, but I'd like to see the whole group kind of wake up. You know, Qualcomm take close over the 50 day, if it confirms maybe wakes up as well. So I wouldn't go into tomorrow being like, yo, this looks great, right? I would be very pleasantly surprised if we could get a lot of value. I think tomorrow try to concentrate on the strong names into rising support. If there are pockets of strength, but there's channels that are contracting, try to scalp, try to scalp a little bit more. I just don't see where the big measure potential move is, unless we could catch like an Amazon going into rising support and it goes red to green. So we have to be a little bit finicky here. So the goal tomorrow is understand that we are probably going into day two distribution, which short-term, it sucks for an intraday trader, but long-term from a longer outlook for the market is still super duper bullish. Remember that 303 level, as long as we stay above that 30 level, that's good. Once we close below that 303 level, that's bad. There's no room for determination. There's no room to have an argument. This is it, right? That's the line of the sand. As long as it keeps on putting in higher lows, we are okay. The question is tomorrow, how expansive or contraction can we possibly get? And if we do contract one more time, are you responsible enough to sit there like an adult waiting for the channels to expand again? Again, that's something we could only analyze in our own personal space. Guys, have a great night. God bless and I will see you all tomorrow. Take care.