 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The Tiger Technician Hour with your host, Basil Chapman. Call now toll-free at 1-877-927-6648. Good morning, everyone. Basil Chapman on this Wednesday, the 22nd of March. Well, March is almost done. Anyway, here we are looking at the Dow down 12, the S&P down just a little bit. I think it was one. Yeah, down one. I'm going to talk about it in a moment. I'll come back. QQQ, up 11 cents, the 310.45, the IWM down 51 cents and 176 gold is up 5.5. For 1946, Silver is holding pretty well. You remember we talked about the juggling between the two. So Silver is up 16 cents at 22.59. High grade Copper had a very strong session yesterday and the day before. Today it's up again at 4.02 on the continuous contract, up 0.03. So this is a pattern that I like to look at. I'll just throw it in here. We'll come back to it maybe in a couple of days. You see this channel and what I do with channels is I like to go to the outside of the Wix, in other words the very end of each bar. And I use candlesticks mostly because the information that you garner from the actual design of the candlestick itself is really, I'm finding it more and more important. The other thing is it spreads the charts out if it's just the bar chart you can get really squashed. I'm only looking for troughs and peaks as one of the criteria in the trap wave count, the actual count itself. So I could miss that. This way it makes it much easier. And I love to, so in this particular instance, look, High Grade Copper went to the height of the 18th of January at 4.35. This is a continuous contract. I would have gone and kept the high that was made at 4.23 and that was on the 21st of February. But then the very next high was lower than that. So I kind of compromised and I went to, whoops, I went to the body of the candle, the wick and the body. So it comes down a little bit. And one of the reasons I did that is I wanted to see if I could draw a channel. The channel is where you get parallel lines. I haven't put the generally inside track of repellent zone or propellant zone here at all. I didn't need it. But what I am looking at is if I just draw a parallel, you can see that we match beautifully to the bottom. And that's all I need to see because it's given me parameters is making the contention that lower lows and lower highs is really a down mode and the upper higher highs and higher lows is an up mode. And that's all you want to think of right now. So it's in a sell mode. But in the moment, and you look at that on balance of volume, how much volume is coming on this rally? That's really quite important because does it get worn out if you don't get the comparable rally in the technicals? Well, sometimes this happens. So I'm going to draw that in here as well. So this is the weekly and you can see the weekly has got a very ragged cup and handle pattern. But one of my favorite patterns is when I see prices in this particular channel, this one is a little bit whippy, the weekly chart looks much better. So you can go a little bit longer and then don't be surprised if at some point you will suddenly spiral up out of that trend line and then that trend line becomes a support level. So it's resistance and it becomes a support level. Let's get back to our story here. We're looking at the dollar, DXY coming down from that peak D in the chapway, the fourth highest peak is where other things can happen. That's where you sometimes get your deepest decline. That's what we're seeing here in the dollar. Wait a minute. If you go to the USDJPY, which is the yen or the yen currency pair, here you are, your pullback sharp. You're trying to rally today. But in the weekly chart, you can see there's an arch formation, a very big pyramid to the upside and then down went into the chapway of inside track. The repellent zone came down with a measured move to a particular bar that I like to look at candle and it made a perfect left side, right side price, time, after score, bar symmetry. There was one student twice and then it had a good rally. So all I'm saying is that in the weekly chart, it's got an arch formation. It has to go into the 139, 140 area within another two weeks. Otherwise, this is kind of stuck and that corresponds with the dollar action. Wait a minute. If you look at the EUR, USD, you've got the exact opposite. You had this cup formation with a nice price symmetry, went to a peak E and a pullback, but the 9 is still way above the 14 and that says this internal strength in the euro. Euro made a new low in the daily under the 200 period moving average. This is now a brand new A. If this is an A and the stochastic is 77% starts to trade for about three, four days above 80%, I have to consider that this is going to go to peak A, B, C and D. But wait a minute. How will that relate to gold? Whoops. How will that relate to gold? Well, gold made that peak D that we were talking about earlier on. It's pulled back, but look at the technicals. The 9 is way above the 14 in the daily. The stochastic is 78%. I prefer 80% or higher, but the MACD is good. The weekly chart, the 9 is over the 14. The MACD is good. Stochastic is a little weak at 53%. And that's telling me that gold is not out of the woods. No, no, no. I should have said it the exact opposite way. And that tells me that gold is still in play. And one of the reasons I think it's in play is if you look at the XLF, and I don't care what the Fed says today, there are certain contingencies out there that the... How can I put it? The integrity of some of the banks is going to be tested unless over the coming weeks, there isn't a lot more clarification. We just had so far come out today to say under certain conditions, I don't know what the conditions are, we'll guarantee up to $2 million, $250,000 to $2 million. That's eight times more. This is a very different scenario. Are other banks going to be forced to do that? Are they able to do that? How can they do it? Is there some kind of insurance policy? How can you guarantee that under these terrible circumstances when there's a financial crisis, where do you get the money to be able to pay everyone and guarantee them their $2 million? Or does this take away from the Fed? Is this something they're going to be encouraged to do? Because it's going to force other banks through competition to go up $1 million, maybe $1.5 million, maybe $2 million to match. So this is a very complex situation. You can see by the weekly chart of the S&P Select Financial Spider Fund that this big arch formation in the weekly chart and the same thing in the monthly is not anything that you can just dismiss by showing your shoulders and saying, ah, we'll be okay. I think it's going to be complex and it's going to continue this ready choppy, choppy action and we're going to see the same thing that we've seen over the last couple of weeks and that is certain sectors outperform. And look at the semiconductors up today, up to $2.69 at $256.33. This is almost a breakout because it's in the weekly chart. You can see this is a year over a year. Yeah, it's almost a multi-year break to the upside, not quite a multi-year, but it's a break to the upside and certainly a yearly high. And that's a very, as far as I'm concerned with the semiconductors, that is pretty important. So good places to take up, get up to about the full escalation, that's low highs and that's low lows. I'll talk about all that. The Dow is down 25, S&P is down three. Holding pretty well, we'll be back. If you're looking for potential trading setups in the stock market, then Rocket Equities and Options Report is a newsletter you should try. Tom O'Brien delivers options and equity trades when the markets present them using a combination of fundamentals and technicals. Sign up for Rocket Equities and Options Report today with a 30-day money-back guarantee so you have nothing to risk. For all the details and to start your subscription today, visit the front page of TFNN.com. TFNN, educating investors. Are you looking for a way to consistently add winning trades to your portfolio? Tom O'Brien is here to help. Tom O'Brien has been successfully trading markets for over 30 years. A frequent contributor to TD Ameritrade Network and CNBC, Tom O'Brien founded TFNN over 20 years ago to help educate investors just like you. Tom's Daily Market Newsletter, Market Insights, is published every morning when the markets open. To give you the competitive informational edge you need to succeed, these newsletters are packed full of Tom's advanced technical analysis and are geared to deliver comprehensive strategies for a successful portfolio. Get Tom O'Brien's newsletter, Market Insights, today and try all of our products and newsletters 30 days risk-free with our money-back guarantee at TFNN.com. TFNN, educating investors. Everything from the most aesthetically pleasing artwork to patterns in the stock market. To stay on top of stock patterns you can take advantage of, sign up for the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter at TFNN.com. When you subscribe, you'll get a weekly report from veteran day trader Larry Pezzavento on stocks you need to pay attention to and you can trust Larry's analysis. After all, he's got 45 years experience as a day trader. Larry will also provide daily charts, videos and data on the key markets that he's tracking. Expect notifications from Larry on market movement you need to act on at any time. First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money-back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. Subscribe to the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter today, TFNN.com, educating investors. TFNN has launched the Tiger's Den, hosted at Discord. TFNN has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours. The Tiger's Den, available to all tigers and tigers for just one dollar for the year. There's no cash or added costs when you join our community of traders. Sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders. Just visit the front page of TFNN.com. Toll free at 1-877-927-6648. Internationally at 727-873-7618. So a couple of things I want you to talk about is this is the first time and I can't even remember when the last time was. It has happened but not as consistent as I've just seen. I think it goes back to what year? May of 2022? Yeah, somewhere around May of 2022. I just had five consecutive sessions of the Richard Arms Tringage in the high-level area. Five consecutive, one, two, three, four, five. Wait a minute, what am I talking about? One, two, three, four, five. Okay, up until two days ago it was five consecutive sessions and didn't get that. Yesterday I thought I did but I didn't and this is going to be very interesting because every time there's been at least a little bit of a cluster like that what's happened is there's been a bit of a rally then a pullback and then a very sharp rally. But when the trend is like in May of last year down that doesn't mean very much. But I'm just watching because it tells you that the speed with which we got over bought in the volatility index, that's Richard Arms Volatility Index, I only use the numbers. The particular numbers I look at if it's over a certain level and out of all the technical indicators I have this is the only one I've never disclosed the numbers. Some people have figured it out. I don't disclose the numbers only because I think it's going to change at some point. I don't want to lock into this and then at some point it changes and people are still thinking it's the old one so I just say when it's high. It's the first time in a long time that the setting pressure was so high every day and look how we turned around to go to the upside afterwards that you had five consecutive sessions and that just tells me that in some ways you can see that the market is if it wasn't for this news with the Fed coming out today I'd be looking at this and saying oh I'm really impressed. I was happy because we're always along the Dow or short to Dow whatever it is but we trade the Dow. I was happy when the Dow was the leader for months and months and then things change but I'm actually happier now that the QQQ and the SMHs are leading because to me that's just up until today maybe changes tomorrow because that's telling me that there are buyers out there that are just ignoring any of the bad news and they're saying I see value because you would under these conditions most managers would look at certainly the beaten down tech stocks now just initially for them as a value as well as high beta but tech stocks so that the two don't necessarily go together high beta and value but sometimes they do and I think that that's what that must be otherwise why would you be so high at 161 back in August you're now at 256 almost 100 points higher that's that is really something so to smash this down you'd have to start seeing the the SMHs would have to crush under 230 under the 228 200 period moving average it can happen but so far I'm seeing buying and I like that question came in about oh so the falling accident let me just show you what this is so in my techniques my myriad techniques that I've developed over the years and maybe one or two kind of overlap but a lot of them are really original I'm not I'm not very good at copying people because I don't usually remember all the details of how I showed so I have to do it myself I've been like that all my life so this is a pattern that I look at so let me just click on this and I'll show you right here uh this is the upside down one I don't want that I want the regular there it is so there's a pattern I discovered years ago that sometimes after a big move up they usually had a peak D E or F it doesn't have to be that that's kind of where I start to see them you'll see the pattern that you're following start to make lower highs and much lower lows then all of a sudden it's find some support and in that support if there is a V or a cup shape formation forming isn't usually more like a V but I like to draw the cup to show that there's a certain motion we're looking at going to the upside if it takes out the declining trend line you can get a one to one to the upside and then all you do is once it breaks that you start looking to the left side to see what's the next peak on the left side that could be the next resistance to to tackle and that's how you go all the way to the top so a very simple technique it can also work upside down like this it's the same thing I just turned the slide upside down and we've seen that in the gold contract it's a couple of contracts they keep doing it all the time they make them it turns into a dreaded H pattern except the difference is they went as like this it invariably goes to a peak C a D or even an E and then it turns down and the higher up you go in that in an alphabet in the Chapman wave methodology on in this particular pattern the greater the chances are that you won't take out the low or if you do it'll be very brief but you've got to stop Gabby got something that says hey I'm going to hold you right there that's different to fading at a peak A or peak B look failed at a peak A dreaded H pattern went to a low low failed at a peak A went to a low low failed at a peak A failed at a peak A and it went to peak A B this time it's gone to a C and I have to tell you if I if it wasn't for the Fed if it wasn't for this whole if I can compartmentalize right now I'd be saying wow I love the action this is the way takeoff moves occur you see the v-shaped pattern in the in the on balance volume see the stochastic start to ready from under 20 to now 56 percent the magnetic crosses positive you haven't yet got the line period over the 14 today's probably the day that either it breaks down and deflects lower or it actually crosses higher um and you're about to tackle the inside track repellent zone in the falling x formation that's the cone for expanding cone declining expanding cone formation too many words um and that says that if by next week we are trading in the s&p somewhere around 434 438 wow that's good except if it's only in a peak it's in a leg D I'm always getting nervous about seeing a big move to the upside in a whatever symbol you're looking at underneath the previous high and it's already gotten to a D I like big strong moves so it says yeah it is great but a lot more work needs to be done however looking at looking at this 200-period moving average that's been the magnet it's been up and down and up and down it keeps coming back to the 4000 and five level and here we are at 4006 so there's a lot going on here's the falling x formation plus expanding this is the inside track propellent zone of the s&p look at that nice candle so far this week still green nine-period moving average I have to tell if it wasn't for the Fed I would have just gone gung-ho bullish well we all bullish the dow we long the dow aggressively long the dow and we'll see what happens all right so with that said I covered that PXD PXD isn't that that's an oil here we go our pioneer natural resources pulling back a little bit today down 250 at 192.84 so the very interesting thing here is if I had to do a one to one to the downside we've already expanded lower than that in the monthly chart as well as you can see here in the weekly chart but more importantly you see this candle here this doji candle from December of 2021 high as 188 low as 166 I'm forgetting this the digits that says to me that's going to be a really important support we've already gone to a low of 177.27 so in that context we'll repeat to the middle of the scandal now try I'll talk about it when we get back dow is actually up 10.84 I have to tell you something who would have thought that there's a Fed speak this afternoon but if you want to take advantage of this sector now is the time to subscribe to my gold report the gold report is a comprehensive look at the metal sector as well as the markets that move gold which is the currency and bond markets new 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and questions live from around the world from the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds tiger tv has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money watch online at tfnn.com or on tfnn's youtube channel and become the investor you were born to be tfnn educating investors this segment is brought to you by think or swim for more information just click the think or swim banner on the front page of tfnn.com hey folks mouthful chapter together this is the tiger's den edition so i just wanted to show you this i used to have this noted this is chimbal i'm going to come back to pxd in a moment but just chimbal what i don't even know what chimbal does i see the sign all the time chimbal navigation living navigation well i don't know what that yeah i was going to look it up but then i thought okay look here's the chart what do i do i treat this as the filter right there right there and then what i do is i look at the left side i'm over here and i'm saying okay where would i consider this arch formation to come back to and what i do is i like to go to the cluster formation on the left so i would go i'd go up here but let's just say i've already seen is it broken that where's the next level i'd go right a grand canyon i go all the way to the to the left side i bump into that and i want to give it time so i'll make that it could be there but i'm saying i i want to go to where it really stops dead which is that bother you can use that but you'll find that if you can go to the the i call it the grand canyon cliff face right there that's much better then i do this i just this is my train station technology allows that and then i just do that but you don't have to have the rectangle or anything i'm lucky i got it it means i can change color green going up red going down or pink going down and now there's a beautiful arch formation have i even a clue that is going to touch that i have no clue but what i like to do is i go to the left side a particular candle i could go there and draw a straight draw my diagonal down like this this particular peak on the left side and and go to a line like that and look it's it's beautiful but i actually like to do it in i like to conform to what i think is the right side time value that i'm looking at here and that says probably and this is my eye this you couldn't and no computer is going to pick it out for you i do it by eye and i say okay i'm going to go all the way down here and what what did i do i'll just extend it now for this i'm going to extend it to the right i don't like those extensions because they stay there and in this particular case i don't want it to extend to the right okay so what do i do i then move to the right this is now my toes i do in my the futures that i'm trading that we're looking at all day and look what happens i have no idea if it's going to work oh and the other thing is because i wouldn't have had all the the price points i put in an x these days i've been trying to put the x in to say that's where that's that's my target all right could miss it doesn't matter it looks terribly embarrassing when you miss it and um but then when you look at it closely you say wait a minute only missed it by uh in a couple of bars and you're going back a year over a year so look at this so that says to me oh i didn't do this i meant to make it go down to the bottom i would have been down there i don't know why i did that should have been there okay this is where i'm looking at okay so my x would have been right there okay so hey that's not bad it went to the low was 49 99 school of 50 and the low that i was looking for was uh 47 19 or anywhere from yeah from 15 to 47 19 so this is i'd love to do that and then i would have drawn in the arch formation on the upside here i would have put it into there and look gives you a really good reading on what's going on all right i thought i'd do that so my my answer to the question on shimble is the the pink is underneath the 40 the pink nine is under the 14 that's a negative the price is trying to form a base but it keeps making a slightly lower low the mag D is weak the stochastic is very weak at 90 the on balance volume is actually not too bad so it says that this whole basing area is already important and if at any point it's at 50.06 right now if it was to slip under 47 close under 46 this is a weekly chart if it did that on a daily basis i would just say be really careful there's no strength here that has been able to garner sustained move to the outside in fact it keeps fading at a peak a look a peak a a peak a a peak a so just be really careful all right so that's shimble tr mb tr mb and next came oh you're short i'm short may 50 and 55 puts along the calls oh okay so all right so if you don't get 50 50 55 yeah i'm not sure how you're going to actually you see it's going to be stuck in a range for a little bit now so in a sense it depends on watch what month you are oh may you said may okay that's fine okay you've got until may so i i think you're going to be this is going to be a good trade for you the big resistance here is in the 51s 51 to 52 if it if it closes over 52 expect that it's going to go a little higher because the magnate did cross positive and stochastic is rallying um but most importantly that ricky chart says it's really struggling to hold rallies and that's all i can say to you that it's struggling and that if it does close under 47 and 46 becomes really important all right next question oh so pxd let's see uh triple provides technology solutions that enable professionals and field mobile workers to enhance or transform the transform their work processes worldwide wow i read that so often in so many companies it's a little it's uh well well a lot of people are doing but it hasn't been working too well for that so the question was could i show pxd i want to do just a little bit else yes yes oh so the tremble yes it did it did weather the storm and that's why i'm saying this particular move right now the magnate uh is just cross positive with that nine to go over the 14 would have to get it to 51 70 so i think in a way that it's acting okay but okay is not good enough because it's done that many times before and then failed this is the first time that you've got the magnate crossing positive since it went negative way back in february and it was up in almost 60 area so yeah this is a big difference okay uh where did it go could you show uh 10 10 oh i'm sorry i can't do it was it pxd right it was pxd pxd pxd yes there it is so almost the same pattern isn't it interesting look it fails at a peak a to b b minus at the 200 pre removing average then it goes to peak a and fails then it goes to peak a and fails yeah it's gone to peak a then gapped up and now it's in the leg b struggling so this is pioneer natural resources um so what i want you to do is to just open this up a little bit and show you it's the same story i would do this um i'd bump up against i don't even have to bump up i can just go to this particular channel right here so i would do this i'd go from here to this low even though it looks like wow you've got a lot of time i would do that yes i would do that no i'm i'm going to do it my usual way i like to bump into the left side low all the way there and then i would take this particular i'm very comfortable with this particular path right there that doji candle i move it to the right like this and there you are that's what i'd be looking at and that says by the week of the 21st of april uh there's a chance that it's going to test the break 166.97 whoa whoa whoa whoa i better do this again that's a lot that's many points from where we are right now i'll be back in a moment you might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market you're going to need a crystal ball after all it's impossible to predict the future right like any endeavor in life before you decide it's impossible get some advice from the experts you might find that it's not so impossible after all for daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices selective stocks and commodities subscribe to the opening call newsletter at tfnn.com the opening call newsletter is written by basal chapman creator of the trading methodology known as the chapman wave the chapman wave up down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns finding the peaks and valleys and stock prices get the opening call newsletter by basal chapman in your inbox every day first time subscribers also get a 30 day money back guarantee if you're not satisfied let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up tfnn.com educating investors are you looking for a way to consistently add winning trades to your portfolio tom obrien is here to help tom obrien has been successfully trading markets for over 30 years a frequent contributor to td ameritrade network and cnbc tom obrien found a tfnn over 20 years ago to help educate investors just like you tom's daily market newsletter market insights is published every morning when the market's open to give you the competitive informational edge you need to succeed these newsletters are packed full of tom's advanced technical analysis and are geared to deliver comprehensive strategies for a successful portfolio get tom obrien's newsletter market insights today and try all of our products and newsletters 30 days risk free with our money back guarantee at tfnn.com tfnn educating investors iotech is booming but for how long whether you think the biotech bull has room to run or has run its course trade labu or labd directions daily s and p biotech times bull and bear etfs visit direction investments dot com slash biotech today an investor should consider the investment objectives risks charges and expenses of the direction shares carefully before investing the prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction shares to obtain a prospectus or summary prospectus please contact direction shares at 866-476-7523 the prospectus or summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing an investment in the funds is subject to risk including the possible loss of principle the fund are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors distributor four side fund services llc this program is brought to you by vista gold traded on the nyse american and tsx under the symbol vgz a couple of things so phd i'm just going to put this x in right here um the stochastic is at 15 percent in the weekly charge remember over 80 percent i said that's what you want if you're bullish let it stay over 80 percent that's fantastic under 20 percent as long as it stays here that says oh you're going to be a little bit careful so it has held this beautiful support line at around about 178 and now it's popped up a little bit this week but i'm suspecting that it's going to be tough going and that's i'll repeat what i said before if it breaks at this particular point if it closes under 182 to 179 that's kind of support area on a weekly basis there's a good chance it's going to come down there so i've got this going all the way to um i don't know if i get to the 166 i'm just saying this is the way i've drawn it in i says by april the week of the 21st of april now i want you to show you something else so i didn't realize so shimble because i now remember there were a couple of stocks that i looked at and they were in this whole navigation thing and i can't remember i had a screamer as a low cap a low price stock that was also in the same thing that did look this does mobility solutions comprising route management safety and compliance end to end vehicle management video intelligence and supply chain communications so all of that sounds fantastic so i'm not sure why it's dropped like this but it's right in the sweet spot of what is needed especially if we start to see pave which is the etf for the infrastructure start to come back and it did gap up a lot of these stocks capped up and have held for two days now i don't know if they're going to hold there but i would put them all together that if if pave starts to move back up again this is the infrastructure there's a chance that shimble should be it should improve but i now remember it um but there was another stock that also had the same litany of things that they did within the organization of automotive agriculture all sorts of things like that so it sounds like a great area but it hasn't been working all right now a couple of things i want you to do had a question about um neo yesterday and i didn't get to it now i can't remember what they yes neo is running some this is neo chinese cars electric cars vehicles um wow that monthly chart is just horrible the weekly chart just had an art formation and this is a nice candle after a doji candle look i don't know if this is the place to be but on a very short term basis it's it's running it's up eight cents today nine thirty five if it's able to close above nine seventy on a weekly basis that's going to be the first time that is closed above the pink nine-period moving average for over a month and that's going to be important because 1022 would be the next level of resistance if at any stage it has one slide underneath 880 i would just say uh uh not ready for prime time at all so talking about prime time um i said i would do this where i wrote it down now oh can i look at the vix index yes i was going to do that but now i just got asked for it so the vix index went to 30.81 and it's now to 20.28 with the fed about to do something that we don't know it could be it could be almost nothing to the point of the market says we can continue rallying some every once in a while for those of you who have ever followed i remember i used to do this decades ago we i used to follow m one that's money supply then i followed m two and then i would then they never discussed m three which i think is really important hardly ever gets discussed that's the actual total money flow and um and it was a thursday and i remember the market would wait and then you know it would come out and then mark would do what it was going to do and so i all i can say is that the vix index is important but it is really responsive to things so in this particular instance is telling us and once again if it wasn't if the if the fed wasn't announcing anything today i'd look at this and say wow oh under the 200 billion moving average of 23.06 on the daily chart at 20.29 back at the lows look at the month look at the weekly chart got repelled to the chapter with inside track repellent zone now it's got the many times it's broken the support level so it's in an area here that says at 20.31 it would take at least a spike into the 25 to 26 area to see this market drop down 800 points s and p you know the equivalent of maybe 120 points or something like that i that's where it would take it would actually pre it would have to be sustained in fact so all i can say is if it wasn't for the fair talking today a lot of the action that i'm looking at has been very positive i kind of like what i'm seeing i i don't like the fact that we've missed my pennies some stocks that i wanted um that's more my problem but the fact that i'm actually missing them because things are moving so quickly that you like and you want to get um i like that aspect so what the fed does i'll talk about that when in the last little segment that we wrap up so at 20.34 it's saying it doesn't look like fund managers are afraid so this could come out of just from nowhere the Fed could say a quarter point but we're not afraid to go to 50 if if things continue because we've just had like what was it the home builders what is let me just see tall brothers let me just check that out uh tall brothers is holding but it's not breaking down the hgx which is the Philadelphia housing sector index um i'll be there in fact uh one day very soon um there's trading at uh well where did that come from what is that over there god i hit these buttons and they do all sorts of things holding very steady not breaking down but not breaking out so it's it's it's waiting for the Fed like us look there's the Philadelphia housing sector in the 9 s across positive yet but it didn't even get down to the 200 period moving average of 418 it's trading at 437 there are pockets of strength here and this rotational pockets of strength is is actually quite important so all i'm saying is that the VIX index at as we speak right now is saying oh um this afternoon the 245 if it's up in the 23s it's at 20.39 right now i don't know if we'll move that quickly in one day but i did that yesterday so it's up in the 23s and holding and it downs down 275 s and p's down i would say 48 to 53 off the three o'clock i go then then i'm saying oh okay but actually i'm wanting a dip right now i would love to see a slide in the market there are there are stocks in and and sectors that i would my subscribers to get into that very attractive looking so we'll see what happens here is this one of those things is beware for what you want right i don't know all i can say is that what is going on at this particular point right in this moment question about cx that's one of those that's always on our list this is cx cement company this is c max south africa s a s a because i'm from south africa i always think s a south africa is s a south america i guess the mexico southern part uh mexican cement company um yeah we're moving up today up uh 107 and 508 how did that get in there what do you stand all right i figure that so in the meantime back in the ranch uh we'll see what happens by the end of the day i i can only tell you i like what i see i might not like it at um 245 this afternoon but right now i like that us um yeah some cells were elevated medium 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information just click the think or swim banner on the front page of tfnn.com a long narrow rectangle formation and what happens it sometimes what most of the time it goes especially if it's at a top of a move it goes goes goes it's like it's a rotation a kind of selling distribution and then it goes below and then sometimes it goes back into the rectangle because it just hasn't seen goodbye to the friends because it came down so quickly so what we've done now is you've gone to a pd in the 10 minute e-mini chart all i can say is this within the context of what we're looking at this is a little nerve racking because it's kind of too benign the market's saying oh ho hum i don't like ho hum at all i i i i i have i've you know i i'm the right there waiting for for an accident to happen but at the same time it is impressive that some things have moved so let me make it as clear as i can if at any point that's a two o'clock announcing i think the market's going to move quite quickly i don't think it's going to just wait for the for the announcement and we don't know what it's going to say specifically but it could be quite complex actually if it becomes complex this is what we're looking at to have a once in a while i was going to say earlier on the the fed the market moves before the fed speak and actually continues in that same upward direction just once in a while but that this could be a change of trend and we're going to watch it closely so we're at 40 0.41 in the e-mini right now we're at 40 4008 in the cash s&p if at any point after the news is is made there is a sharp move up and that sharp move is able to hold all the way let's say the dowel is up 160 points let's just say it holds to a plus 40 all the way through two from two o'clock to two 45 that'll be good wow if it pulls back and the e-mini which is at 40 42 is suddenly down below 4 000 and holding i think that this market will take a breather but then we get to see whether or not there's a snapback within the day or two as the market assesses it that's kind of my thinking if there is a sharp move down but let's see what happens just be a little