 Hello and welcome to the week ahead video with me David Madden today's date. It's Friday the 4th of January 2019 the time has just gone 1135 gnt and I'm looking ahead to next week, which is Monday the 7th of 7th of January on to Friday the 11th of January and bearing in mind today's video has been recorded just after half past 11 gnt So we haven't actually seen the the release of the US non-farm perils figure So any of the any the commentary or any of the charts I do look at obviously won't have the impact of the US non-farm payrolls in them So taking a very brief look at the week and it's just gone It's been a very volatile week for global equity markets at the start of the week We saw a lot of negative news raised to China the manufacturing figures out of China were poor and also we had that revenue warning from Apple Which was once again was related to slowing sales in China, but in the past 24 hours sentiment has turned around Beijing basically stated that they're very keen to actually stupid the Chinese economy And they've actually since then actually slash the reserve requirement ratio And I've also at this talk of a tax cost to help stimulate the economy. So equity markets are in the higher on the date today out of the US not job job numbers But keeping in mind in recent weeks and months We have seen previous attempts by the Beijing authority to actually stimulate the economy and actually turn centered around fail So this could be just actually a possibility. This could be a short live a short live move to the upside Looking ahead to next week and we kind of focus of the week is going to be on both The UK retail sector and also the state of the US economy So take a look at the UK retail sector We've a raft of if you make quite a raft of companies reporting be it Christmas Day vans or Quarterly updates. So next week. We're going to hear from Morrison's Sainsbury's Moss Brothers Mothercare Tesco Marks dispenser card factory and AO world bearing in mind 2018 was a very difficult year for the high street retailers came under enormous pressure There's a notable increase in profit warnings from companies from retailers a Combination of higher costs the rise of online shopping deep discounted actually going to stimulate customer activity all these sort of issues I'm not to mention a bit of brexit uncertainty as well all play the factor and actually in weakening the retail sector. So There's a lot of negative news already priced into the British retail sector So we could have a scenario next week Or maybe we could see what like what we saw with next to this week whereby the numbers are great But if they happen to be kind of better than expected or or the outlook isn't as bad as expected We could see actually a rally higher that being said Expectations are very low. So I've actually managed to actually come in below those already low expectations That will be quite negative for the sector as a whole itself Also next week What we're going to hear what we have it as well keeping out or keep an eye on is the US Federal Reserve minutes This will be the minutes for the meeting last month for the Federal Reserve hike interest rates for the fourth time in 2018 and That that hike and on top of that and the statement that the company that that hike was actually one of the reasons why Every markets in the last few weeks have been actually a bit uncertain what we saw on the back of that hike was a Statement with the Federal Reserve said they plan to hike twice in 2019 But they also said they're concerned about inflation in the US and also Growth in the US not to mention the state of the global economy So treasure are going to have asked the question why are the head part of the Federal Reserve? Looking to press ahead with tighter monetary policy both in terms of kind of balance sheet run down and higher interest rates If we're potentially facing a scenario of lower growth and lower inflation and that's one of the reasons I've seen a big sell-off and uncertainty in global in global economic markets and predictor the US markets The US economy is in decent shape But we have seen some some soft economic indicators of the rest recently the housing data hasn't been great and only yesterday The ISM manufacturing numbers was actually deep It was actually quite disappointing So there are some signs that there was economies cooling and this ties in with the slower figures We're seeing in terms of services manufacturing in Europe not to mention the also cooling of the Chinese economy So if the Federal Reserve Continued the kind of you know hawkish line despite the fact that the global outlook isn't overly aggressive It's not really isn't overly rosy. That could be another way of actually adding pressure To global stock markets also next week keep mind We will also on Wednesday. We'll also hear from the Bank of Canada on Wednesday We'll also hear from bed back and beyond once again tying you with the kind of wider retail sector And then a Friday. We're going to hear from us US release its latest inflation figures once again gives indication of what demand is like in the US That's what I do now to take a look at a couple markets and see what kind of moves we potentially see So starting off with the puts even under us like I was saying The retail sector is going to be very much in focus next week And it's probably going to be a good gauge of actually what's going on in the British economy So taking a look on a wider range We're sort of a weekly chart you look at the two in a week moving average We can see that the footsie 100 is firmly still below its 200 week moving average of all it is off the lows on December This red line here is the 200 week moving average. So we're well below that notice how I like to support Back in November 2016 and also in March 2018 But we saw it kind of largely hover hover above it in November of 2018 We're now firmly below while we remain below that metric. It's likely we could see further move to the downside If you do manage to take out the most recent low at five thousand six hundred and thirty six It could bring us back down to the five thousand six hundred area And it's another size to move below that could take us back down towards six thousand two hundred fifty This is sort of region here or between up as high as six thousand four hundred and thirty odd down to about six thousand two hundred and fifty This is that this region here Just take a look now on the daily chart to give you fun location We can see it's a classic example of a downward trend lower lows and lower highs If we do move to the upside on the footsie 100 diverse area to keep a mile four could be this you could see Resistance coming to play at the fifth day moving average this blue line here at six thousand two hundred six thousand nine hundred twenty two Notice how they managed to act at resistance In the past effective resistance in the past it makes it likely that we could see it active resistance in the future And I move beyond that could run to resistance at the psychological important seven thousand level Take a quick look now at the S&P 500 a good gate a good broad gauge of the US stock market If you draw a line between the lows of of February 2016 and the lows of November 2016 We get this trend line here and we can see on a couple of occasions in October and November and even also December It was respected a number of occasions, but the market is firmly below that trend line And why we remain below that trend line is likely we could see continued pressure on the S&P 500 And if you do look to kind of push on lower from here, we could be looking at retesting the December low 2,319 a break below that could bring three thousand Sorry two thousand three hundred into play and then of course if you go below that We could be making any backed out words this region here in around the in around the two thousand two hundred and fifty region any move to the upside on the S&P 500 could run into resistance in around Two thousand five hundred and thirty this area here And then if you go beyond that resistance could come into play at two thousand six hundred And we'll be on that this trend line which previous active support may active resistance and our potential coming to play in around the two thousand six hundred and forty five region That's all for me this week I just want to see before I go if you really come to make on this video or any of the other videos We've made here as CMC markets, please feel free to leave review on good reviews. That's all for me this week Thank you very much