 Good morning to you. Hope you are well. Tuesday the 17th of September. Going to talk about a couple of things. Updates in regard to the situation yesterday. Obviously the big market mover since that episode at the weekend in Saudi Arabia. Oil prices still at the forefront of investors' attention. So we're gonna have a look at what's the latest to look out for on that regard. From a news perspective for me and from a technical and set up perspective from Sam. They're gonna have a look at what Trump has had to say and then move over to Brexit. You obviously, I'm sure would have seen the news yesterday when the empty podium, when Leluxembourg PM came out and obviously was talking to no one because Boris Johnson got heckled that he just dodged the press conference. So we'll have a quick update on Brexit. Where are we at the moment with those negotiations and what are we looking out for next as Boris now goes to court to defend his decision to suspend parliament starting today. And then we're gonna have a look at the trade deal which has been struck between the US and Japan which is the latest in the global trade negotiations on that front. So just having a look at the charts at the moment this morning, the dollar index is basically flat. So not a great deal of movement in the major currency pairs. Euro dollar on the top left, perhaps just finding a degree of support technically around the session low that was seen late in the European afternoon being the lower bound of price activity. What otherwise was pretty quiet overnight Asia Pacific session, a little bit of a dip to retest those lows as Europe's come in this morning very early. In the equity space, not too much, little touch of softness perhaps across the equity index futures. Again, the overall kind of broad interpretation for those other assets aside from the spiking oil is obviously the implications that has an underlying sectors like we saw all of the across the Atlantic airline stocks in the States getting hit quite significantly yesterday. Jet fuel, one of obviously the biggest costs or the biggest singular cost constraint for an airline firm. So there were spots of weakness in relation to that move. But overall as well from a macro top level perspective people's concerns about renewed geopolitical unrest, how exactly is this going to be dealt with? Will the US get involved? Will this now lead to a new, more military based confrontation between Saudi and Iran or all of this is quite destabilizing on that geopolitical front. So do you get that kind of traditional rotation in that respect coming out of equities? But all in all the other assets are not really reflecting too much of that gold if anything is down this morning but still holding that $1,500 level psychologically which also lines up pretty well in the top right here to the yes one on the daily pivots. Still haven't fully closed the gap yet on the move but when we jumped higher on Sunday night in the futures market in the way really is that psychological handle and that pivot level and low tested this morning. T-notes flat, support around pivot for the moment in the near term price action but largely unchanged and pretty similar to the Bund as well this morning. So let's get up to speed with what's going on. Let's have a quick chat about Saudi Ramco. To face weeks without majority of output their major basically facility which accounts for 50% of the entire supply coming out of the country. This is probably the latest development that's happened since the time we delivered the briefing from yesterday. Saudi Ramco becoming less optimistic that there'll be a rapid recovery in all production from the weekend's attacks and they've now moved to goalposts from a couple of days to now facing a couple of weeks or perhaps even months before majority of output is restored at that processing plant. So if you actually think about the price activity yesterday, it obviously exploded higher at the reopening of trade on Sunday night. However, we then came back down, natural kind of profit taking and this is where the kind of technicals come into play as I can see here, Sam had marked up yesterday the high that we had in the prior week acts then as that kind of area of key support and then as the details started to come through that perhaps actually the initial interpretation that we were getting from the press was that this could be quite a quick solution to fix. Obviously the US as we were talking about yesterday were intonating towards they could use things like the SPR for example, apparently Saudi Arabia have put the order out in order to put into work as quickly as possible idle facilities in order to get production back online to mitigate the fact that 5.7 million odd has been taken away from that disruption. But the fact that it's gonna take so long to get back online as that started to come through prices started to remain elevated again technically just hitting pretty much to the same exact point where we did initial volatility at the open on Sunday night. So still elevated for the moment and we still remain I guess mindful of listening out for more concrete updates to the exact specifics but I would imagine it's gonna take some days before they really have a more accurate answer to that question. Now a few other things to be aware of then how much does the kingdom have in terms of crude exports and storage because obviously they will run a degree of infantry in order to counteract these types of events so that there's no more severe media impact and the stocks in days of exports is basically 26. And so for the time being that does buy them a degree of time. So if it is multiple weeks although that I think will underpin the price of oil and help keep it elevated they do have the ability to do that. And particularly depending on how quickly they can utilize the spare capacity they have with idle sites as well will be quite key to look out for. This as well is obviously Saudi operates within still for this time being within the framework of OPEC and OPEC plus but as this graphic depicts there's very little spare capacity that other members have. If you remember Saudi Arabia being a country that was pumping just shy of 10 million is commonly believed that they do or have the potential to go up to 12 million. Other countries do not have anywhere near that kind of two million flexibility. The UAE is probably the largest as followed by Q8 but their spare capacity resides at about 300,000. Spear capacity at the other of course biggest non OPEC member Russia is only about 110, 120,000. So if you think about it even if this OPEC current supply pact is to cut production by say 1.8 million collectively then even if they were to do the entire spare capacity that they have let's say that's three, 600, seven, eight and then 750, 800,000 that is nowhere near offsetting the 5.7 million shortfall that Saudi Arabia are doing. So there's not really a lot that the rest of the OPEC nations can do and that's not even saying that there's probably gonna be a lack of appetite really to respond in such a way. This was an interesting or perhaps useful infographic that I saw last night. I did share this on my Twitter account. Obviously my handle for my Twitter account is below but I think it's quite useful often when you have these types of events to really get under the bonnet of what is the actual infrastructure and what are the potential oil vulnerabilities of Saudi Arabia. It's good to know the kind of lay of the land where are the major oil terminals, refineries, oil fields, gas fields, pipelines because then when you do hear officials comment or you hear of a breaking news headline you're just a little bit better equipped about how generally the facilities are laid out. And here you can see the two targeted attacks that happened at the weekend in those facilities which basically is the zoomed in area here. So basically a lot of this coming from the Persian Gulf side of course of where it's situated with kind of Iran, Kuwait, Iraq as well as Saudi and then the Persian Gulf coming out through the straits of Hamuz which is obviously critical choke point. And then the pipeline gas oil pipelines and gas pipelines that go from east to west to then hit the Red Sea to go into the Suez and into the Mediterranean. So again, if you did need to have a look at that, it's quite good, it has some additional information down at the bottom looking at their current Saudi crude stocks but also interested to know Saudi Arabia's crude exports by destination, of course, China number one, top of that, followed by Japan, India and Egypt. Looking out for more details then from Saudi Arabia from a news perspective, I'm definitely interested to see what they have to say more officially, particularly around these detailing which could be a market moving event for sure for oil about whether or not they say this is a one week fix and how much can they turn around in one week or is it three weeks, is it six weeks? Obviously the longer that period the more bullish for price it becomes. So the Saudi energy minister is holding a press conference at 8 p.m. local time. So that's going to be six o'clock London where we're going to be looking out for that. So do stay tuned. If you're sticking around as an energy trader, I'd say that's worth adding to your calendar at six p.m. this evening. The other thing, of course, on the geopolitical side is Donald Trump, how is he going to respond? We saw yesterday the Secretary of State was very critical pointing the finger at Iran, Trump, all those saying locked and loaded perhaps a little bit more diplomatic waiting to see what the Saudis say first. But importantly, Donald Trump has said on Monday it looked like Iran was behind the attacks on oil plants in Saudi Arabia. So he is saying it's now Iran, but he stressed he did not want to go to war as the attacks and oil prices obviously soaring and new fears of conflict in the Middle East. Now importantly, obviously from a foreign policy point of view Trump has been very vocal about the fact that withdrawing troops out of the likes of areas like Afghanistan, foreign wars that are ongoing and that's been part of his mandate for a long period of time. And so getting committed now into military involvement in Iran would be pretty much going against what he's been saying for the last three years. And it's very difficult then politically to flip that so near term towards when we're going into this political campaigning period now for 2020. So hence the reason why you are seeing a slightly more measured Trump, but also that could then be factored into price in a sense that if he is going to respond in a more tame fashion, then that does take away the immediate geopolitical kind of fear to some level. I guess then one thing I'd be mindful going forward in the coming days, weeks and months is there's Iran feel now really that without any repercussion from the US that it can really start doing multiple events like this if it comes down to Saudi having to protect themselves. And if that does happen, obviously we could be in for more quite severe supply shocks like we've just seen over the weekend. So that should kind of wrap if you like of what's going on on the Saudi side. Moving over to Brexit, a couple of different things. Yesterday he was meeting with a couple of European officials. The atmosphere around the table was reportedly said to be friendly, although breakthrough was no closer, no real further detail upon any type of solution around the issue of the Northern Irish border coming forward as yet. The prime minister's officials have indicated as well that Boris Johnson will defy the new law designed to force him to seek a delay to Brexit rather than allow a no deal split next month. So this has been one of the things that come out of the press of course at the weekend. Boris Johnson did say he would not breach the law but didn't go into detail then of how he would get around the vote in parliament that obviously requires that if he can't get a deal basically in principle agreed by the EU summit on the 17th and 18th of October, then by the 19th he needs to go back to Europe and request an extension beyond then the deadline of October 31st. So again, he's saying that he's gonna defy the law but he's then saying he's not gonna breach the law without saying how he's gonna bypass it. So again, it's all this kind of political posturing. Things that are happening right now are the constitution in itself is gonna be heard in Supreme Court proceedings. This week, after Scottish judges ruled against Johnson's suspension of parliament, the hearings are scheduled to run from today until Thursday but the actual outcome of those hearings might not be known till next week. Obviously the kind of far-reaching scenarios here, if it's found the Supreme Court that Johnson's suspension of parliament was let's say not justified in a sense and therefore it was a misuse of his power, then obviously that would be the most surprising outcome and I'd say probably the most then bullish in the sense of the poundiness initial reaction but I don't think that's going to happen. I think these court hearings quite frankly are a bit of a sideshow rather than a main catalyst to change the direction of where we are heading at the moment. Moving on, finally, this is probably much lower. It's not really something I'd consider from a trading strategy for today but something to be aware of given the fact that beyond the remit of the China-U.S. talks, there's obviously Japan as well and Trump has said the U.S. and Japan have reached an initial agreement on tariffs. However, the one sticking point still is whether or not Trump is going to reverse his threats to impose tariffs on Chinese or Japanese auto imports which of course are particularly important for an export-led nation like Japan in the automotive sector. So yeah, quite interesting but I don't think that this was the one that's ever been too much in question. I think the one that's very much more so outside of China that will be interesting in time will be of course the one when he starts targeting Europe as he has done with Germany not being the president more recently. Okay, quick look at the calendar. What have we got on the agenda for today? So just having a look for the session, you've got German ZEW coming out at 10 o'clock. That just is a reminder for anyone new to the economic data series. ZEW is the economists and analysts. Six months, generally current conditions and six months outlook about what they think of the German economy going forward. So as you can see, these are deeply negative at the moment in terms of the actual index reading of economic sentiment. Looking for slight improvement of basically the worst bottoming out kind of process going on at the moment. So not exactly increasing optimism but slightly less pessimistic I'd say. It's probably the best description of that. Is that gonna move the euro, anything like that? I'd say probably not having heard so recently from the ECB. I don't think the German data being weak is particularly shocking at the moment. Going into the US session, it starts to get more interesting from the activity side of the data sets, industrial production, cap utilization, manufacturing output will all be watched quite closely. And then you've got the API inventories coming out later on tonight. Speaker-wise, a couple of ECB members. ECB's Lane and Coa speaking later, 535, 10 past six, London time later on early evening. All right, that is it from me. Gonna hand you over to Sam and wish you a good day ahead. Thanks very much guys. Hi guys, good morning. Starts with oil to begin with and pretty much on the briefing when we were talking, literally this time yesterday oil was on its low of the day and we were just saying how important that level was as a line in the sand for the day and week ahead and you can see just the importance here is still marked up in the rectangles from yesterday, around 59 bucks, the highest that we had back on the 31st of July and also just the 10th of September, seven days ago. We came back down, found great support there before pushing higher and double test of yesterday's high. So we're keeping an eye on that and you could argue then we're looking for a neckline for that double top. This makes this level even more important here on the futures, it's coming around 61.50. Yes, you've got the pivot there as well. So your new line in the sand to the downside, I would have marked up around there 61.50 or thereabouts and another test of the high around 63.35, be keeping a close watch on that as well. So oil found great support before pushing higher. If we have a look over another market which was at an interesting level at the time as well, you had the equities in the US which just couldn't really break their trends to the downside. We then did get that gap fill as well and found really good resistance there. So not in the way of too much movement, really. Yes, they've been stopped. Now we've had that gap fill, 3,005. Obviously keeping a watch on that again today or potentially can we get another test of those that triple top area from last week. Keeping an eye this morning on what the DAX does of course as we have pushed higher from it's low and a strong push there on the open really the last 15 minutes, seeing a decent move to the upside. So we're keeping a watch on what happens around there. So I'm gonna look really now at the trend from yesterday's high and see that just marking up here now with the high that we just had posed open. So obviously the higher the day, yesterday afternoon's high and now as well just containing price action there. So a break of that, we can look in obviously yesterday's high and then actually the DAX to follow US equities from yesterday and fill the gap as well. But for now holding firm on that level as well. Another market which we were saying yesterday was at an interesting point of course was a T-notes and that just put this on a daily chart. We're just saying the importance of this whole area where we found the low on Friday and since then we've had a big bounce to the upside however we are to start into perhaps again look like we're just finding a bit of a trend. So we're keeping a watch on that. We've already hit the previous low before that final push down on Friday. First test of that early this morning. So price does get squeezed perhaps there for T-notes. Maybe volume in the afternoon increased. We can see it push higher but of course with the Fed that's gonna be the real dictator as we were saying. We have gold yesterday which did drift lower and following the gap higher on the weekend we've now reversed a fair bit of that 1500 key just above the S1 and then of course where we found quite a lot of support around 93 last week on the 10th overnight at the 11th could argue the 12th and also the 13th. So quite an important point coming up for gold there. Silver which got higher as well is doing the same thing and just drifting down after failing to make a new high yesterday evening. You can see the importance of that level from the lows that we had really for a fair bit of last week just a really key point 18, 0, 6, 3 there for the silver just as you're lining the sand to the upside a break above that ensure we can look for a continued push. It's acting relatively technical both to the upside and the downside in this new range as well. Quick look over currencies just to wrap things up. Just gonna have a quick look at the Euro to begin with which has just had a nice bounce from that low. And again, this is a quite a key level as well just from a price action point. There's the obviously the ECB spike higher and lower but just around here has been decent price action over the last week. So first real test of that again this morning decent bounce and we're now back up to the higher day although be it a very small range of just 21 ticks there for the Euro we broke lower yesterday after breaking what was good support. And now we're not too far away. Well, I guess we pretty much bang in the middle of the ECB spike but a break of these lows here I wouldn't say much is gonna stop it before drifting down towards the S1 and potentially even that low of the year or multi year should we say that we got on the just before the press conference of the ECB. So a couple of important points there for the Euro pivot looks also quite key as well as a decent break down area that we had from yesterday around 111 handle as well. Pound just finished things up relatively quiet this morning just like Euro so not too much going on. Of course with the Fed and Bank of England that's to be expected small range containing things at the moment. Just be keeping an eye on the pound if we were to drift lower down you've got around the S1 124 34 the higher than nine which also broke through. And if we that wasn't to hold you've got a nice trend that of course broke last Friday. So we had some of the look to see at any point do we get a retest of that. If that was to happen today it'll obviously be more than likely a fundamental reason to get down that low. But certainly that's an area that I would have marked up as well. Any questions as usual please do let us know. But if not I hope you'll have a good trading day.