 We'll take a few questions at a time around three questions and then turn to the speakers for their responses So do Okay I'm Dominic from UNU wider, and I have a first question actually both of you I mean you mentioned your presentation as migration has different second you call the push pull factors or triggers How did you manage? Especially especially interesting the context of slow onset environmental degradation. How do you manage? to isolate the factor of let's call it climate change or weather as a factor that people migrate Then a second just tiny small command is It's maybe a bit problematic using the word refugee in the context of climate change as you know The term is protected by the UN Convention on Refugee, so maybe just as a little hint Okay, thanks Dominic. I think we had a question right in the back there all the way in the back. Yes, stand up Yes, I'm Josh Busby from the University of Texas. My question is for miss Nagabata, I hope I didn't mispronounce that in any case I wanted to ask you how you calculated both drought and flood in your initial graph I just was interested in what the equation that you had used to Calculate that and then in your vulnerability index You had three parameters exposure poverty and adaptive capacity and I think the first Unit that you showed had a four a four and a two and then the overall score was a five And so I didn't know how you got there. Thanks Okay, thank you Josh. Okay, then okay Let's take this gentleman here Yeah, thank you very much. My name is Ernest Muller from Cameroon University of Boya I wanted to find out from the two presenters both Nidhi and Brinda are these People vulnerable people left to their own device. I didn't hear anything about Local government actions, you know public sector actions to be able to reduce the vulnerability of these exposed communities Okay, maybe we take two or three more questions because I see a lot of people are anxious. Yes, please Thank you very much. I'm Jahangir Chaudhary from Bangladesh. I teach at the University of Dhaka The point the like the first question I would like to I've got the same question How do you distinguish between a weather related migration and climate related migration climate change? This is a big question As I am from Bangladesh I know the actually what is happening in the in my country that most of the migrations are happening not Due to the climate change rather is there like it's a policy problem because we have got rebar bank erosion Okay, and most of the migrations are you know are happening or have been happening due to this reason and it's erosion problem is not because of the Climate change rather it's a it's a problem of development policy make implementation or the Allocation of the resources, you know from where to have this is a main problem And you have said that most of the people are actually my getting from southern part to the northern part especially in the Russia It isn't but Russia reason has another climate change problem desertification Yeah, so so have you actually accounted for that thing in your model or not? This is a one question the second thing is that you see what you are saying that by 2020 half of the people of the you know 50% of people will have to migrate from one reason to another reason. I Don't understand how do you get this number? You know because there are some lots of things that are actually Influenced this sort of like you know a thing and and until unless you accounted for all those things and which is Which are actually difficult to account money which are which is really difficult so until unless you do it and This sort of like projection or the focus is actually is sometimes give a you know misleading information And I think if if that happens that 50% people have to migrate from southern part of northern Bangladesh will not exist actually It will not possible for us to accommodate 160 pinion people in only 80 80,000 square kilometer So that's okay. Thank you. Okay. Thank you I saw one other hand on this. I think this gentleman has had your hand raised Yes, I'm from Nepal. I like to first present this first one You talk about that is migration with the agricultures. Do you have the sum That about the migration due to the drying or migration to the flooring Or drought and even is it a one-year data for the yield or the long-term data for the bigger You I think you talk in the household data analysis and then it is if if one or data for a Eel for the one or it might be the bias due to the migrations and also if the resource survivality of the household if The household which are the low no irrigation or upland farm grain fed farming and no irrigation Then there might be more effect than the those who are the irrigation facility. So What are the major concern about the yield? To the migrations and the another one is the for the second presenter I have some question about that these change the cropping pattern is due to It is the opportunity cost also the lack of the adaptations if there are the more income rise from The business table then the rise then they automatically farmers want to Change the cropping pattern. So is it due to the climate change or opportunity cost for the market? Thank you Okay, thanks. I think we better let the Presenters respond and then we'll take another round of questions. So Brenda do you want to go first? This kind of answers questions for all the three Questions that came from Nepal Bangladesh as well as from you and wider as to how do we distinguish? the migration that's caused by other Other factors and and link it up to weather and climate So first I'll answer the question that the model has an econometric framework where we are controlling for the other factors Which we have not yet identified what those other factors are They are sitting in those Fixed effects coefficients that we have for the dummy for the states and the time So there is there are some changes that are happening over time There are some changes in the other variables that are happening across the space all of them are sitting in that Unidentified source which is I think important to do that Which we'll take up take it up slowly as we move on but after accounting for those variations We say that the remaining is being accounted for by the yield changes that we see here But the second question I think that comes from Bangladesh is how do we distinguish between climate and weather? Because climate is a long-term change and weather is kind of a more annual annual change that we're looking at The way the migration data has come in for the Indian context We have it as five-year averages over the time periods that we're looking at If it's at the country level data that we're looking at for the five six time points And therefore we are actually averaging the yield over those five-year periods So it's kind of covering the 30 year period that you one would look like look at for a climate change But it is not really a climate change because the variations are within those five five-year period that we're looking at So it's kind of midway between climate and whether if one were to look at it in the true definitional sense But there is more of weather variation that we're talking of and the weather variation impacting yield Variations and hence its impact on the migration. We do it at two levels One is at the state level where we have larger variation in the time frame But lesser variation in the space and then we do it at the district level where there's a larger variation in the space And lesser variation over time and to some extent both of these are accepted in the literature to try and understand changes of weather on yield and We have sort of followed that strand of literature next indebted to migration That sort of answers largely the the methodological inputs that are there and most of the data issues are more Detailed discussed in the paper and I would like you to take a look at that All right, I'm going to take the point on refugee first. Certainly a Refugee is not the Focus of my study and I myself would want to not integrate in with the refugee film Conceptual layout and the theoretical debate But the thing is that when you when you talk about referring to migration literature is often used in context of people migrating outside the national borders and when we talk about climate-induced migration I also found a lot of references using refugees though. They're not able to separate refugees Whether they're climate-induced or induced by any other factors like work or war or conflict or and so on and so forth, right? I think but Climate-induced refugees or climate refugees are a commonly used term in migration literature That's what I really want to comment upon and You also talked about push-and-pull factors push and pull factors is against When you talk about climate-induced migration I've taken the reference of push and pull factors from the migration literature There are factors which are more lucrative for people to There are regions of factors that pull people because they have more opportunities and their Factors or regions that push people because they are extreme or because they are damaging or because they are that disaster related or because they don't offer any opportunity of survival livelihood income or Profession or something so I mean this is a common reference to literature of migration I hope I've answered that to your satisfaction and I now switch on to the gentleman from Bangladesh who who said that 50% projection in population migrating from Bangladesh. It sounds really striking and Critical I have this is not my projection. This is a study from Brock. That's Bangladesh research Organization and I've used just a reference as I mentioned in my presentation That is a cool is a coalition of all the projections in Bangladesh and this was one of the studies that I've referred It was a compilation of Brock and you must be familiar with Brock And so I is striking indeed But I mean I just wanted to project the intensity that one one one or or exports in the region are talking about Whether it's is going to be 50% or not. I mean, it's just a projection and a forecast I mean, we are not going to really get bogged down by it Then I mean there was another question about droughts and flood where did I access the data the data is from the federal recalls The definition was whether you are able to grow a crop during that season with the amount of rainfall received if not then is declared as drought and if yes, then It's not declared as drought and similarly if you're not able to grow the crop because of the access of water or inundation Then it's declared as a flooding situation Another important point that I would like to reflect is that Human migration is certainly a Very broad topic and very in the recent last decade or so We have seen that people have started talking about climate induced migration But to my understanding as I think it's rather very challenging or next to impossible to separate people Who migrate because of climate and who migrate because of other factors? but when we take about when we if we can identify rights are a guess of parameters and Have federal records or other research records matching that then to a certain extent we can say is climate induced or not for instance in flooding or cyclones or other extreme events that goes into the federal records and the gentleman from Bangladesh also pointed about the people in Bangladesh how they are migrating within the national borders Then people are migrating to Raj Shahi because this is just a seasonal migration in West season Raj Shahi still offers them opportunity to work as agricultural labor Whereas in dry season The situation might be grim so they are looking for seasonal work at least in the case I am just giving a reference to the literature that I have read and there might be much more supporting factors or undermining factors This is what was available. I'm basically have analyzed it in a spatial format, but the records that have Used is limited and the resources and the references are also limited in this regard Okay, needy can we just take I know we had one more question because the plenary is coming in in about five minutes And I know they they would like to set up So I just want to I know this gentleman you had your hand raised for a while So we could take your question and get one final response from both of you Thanks very much for your wonderful presentation. Thanks moderate Yeah, the relationship between climate change and the rural labor mobility is interesting you use the Instrumental verbal to estimate the impact of climate change on migration, but I think this might Amplify the impact of the climate change because I Think there exists a situation is that Some people move from one place to another place is just because they some people like colder or warmer place to live so If you can't Consider this situation, I think this might Impalify the impact of climate change on mobility the second issue is that Your estimation the eco eco emphasis of your results are very small so but I think this might because is because that you didn't Classify the Asia the peoples of Asia because a person to in China in China and they mobility the most of mobility of people is a form a form the young people so if you didn't Distinct the People by Asia. I think this magnitude of results matter Very very small so this is my my consideration for this question. Thank you very much. Okay. Thanks very much Okay, let's just take final responses from our presenters Very quickly. I think I did discuss this issue of amenity channel and the That's that's what you're talking about some people prefer colder and warmer regions to be in certain regions compared to the other So that's kind of mentioned here But we do not we in fact do not find an evidence for amenity channel in our modeling exercise that we have done here And as far as the age wise data is concerned and the rates could be high So the rates are low because migration rates per se in India are very low and you're sort of finding that different Low in the results and responses that you're seeing here the age wise data is not available for the analysis that we would like to do So that's that's the reason why we didn't go about Being able to do that But we would certainly like to look into it But I think the concern could also be between short-term migrants and long-term migrants that some of others have also been mentioning that We've not been able to distinguish between somebody who keeps moving back and forth versus somebody who moves To another place for long for good So that's the kind of challenges that we have in the modeling and we hope to you're working on this and you'll see more papers coming up I Just remember that I didn't answer your question on why would people want to grow rice if they other crops are more economically rational, I think They they pointed out that the rice is a water-intensive crop and they don't have enough water During the rainforest season because there's a shift in monsoonal pattern They have more more rain after after the monsoons and in winter So they prefer to grow rice during that season and so the summer rice has gone wiped off Okay, okay. Thanks, Nune. Okay. Well, I think what we've really seen from this session is it's quite difficult to isolate You know whether migrations being driven specifically by climate change or by a host of other factors that many of you brought up But I think this research is starting to push us in the right direction So I'd like to give a hand of applause for our presenters