 Hello friends, this is another episode of the mark report. This is a special edition We come to you today with very heavy hearts regarding what is going on in the market and We want to talk to you about what's happening and hopefully Reassure you about some of the stuff that you're seeing currently all over Twitter with Bitcoin with ETH with Celsius We're gonna be hitting some of the biggest topics that going through the Twitter sphere Seeing what people are talking about and hopefully make some sense of this today So we have our resident experts here Marcel Peckman and Jordan Finneseth, and we're gonna dive right into this stuff This is a special edition of the mark report Jordan and Marcel Welcome to this special edition today. How and what is going on right now guys? The climate the general climate couldn't be worse. I'm not saying just specifically of crypto because when you hear traditional analysts Comment what happened to the markets on Friday and on Monday, especially the mortgages best Securities the the the same thing that collapsed in 2008 with the lemon brothers depth instruments related to Real estate investments and the thing is there are no buyers for those risk assets right now And when this happens when there's a panic in the real estate markets all every risk market In the world goes down and so does crypto so Traditional markets cows Very burdensome environment for us and we're feeling the pain right now Yeah, we're all Somewhat used to volunteer the volatility here in crypto But just think about the fact that crypto was created When 2009 which was around the last time the last major market shake-up that had the whole world experienced. So there's a whole Generation of traders and even money managers that have never experienced a major market turn down which we're getting now It's not just the crypto market as Marcel was saying it's hidden all markets across the world Which is definitely gonna just take an extra toll on the crypto market with its increased volatility The people that especially the newer investors institutional investors and whatnot that aren't as of the hodl type nature Are definitely gonna be dumping their tokens in situations like this. So yeah, we've been mentioning I like I've been saying for you like take your profits These are the reasons because crypto can turn it quick and like you don't even got time to get out of the market when it really moves like this so Kind of like just hold on for dear life That's where the saying came from and like it's gonna be a few rough months slogging out of this, but Don't don't get too depressed out there people just it's just cryptos just money and that it will come back eventually Just for the record gold is down 2.3 percent at 1 8 to 8 right now So even gold which used to be the most Stable assets over the past decade is losing ground today and 2.3 percent for gold It's like 23 percent for cryptos It's and I have a question about that Marcel But I wanted to take a second here and thank everyone for jumping in see sells with dips here I see Shalom I see rich new design Luciana friend of the show Adrian's here Vikram's back Want to take a second to have thank all of our loyal viewers for tuning in today But Marcel what does that tell you when when gold is down is people are people flocking to fiat right now? Is that really the safest place to hold this cash? Everybody is fearing that the worst is about to happen a major crisis, etc. So yes, they're gonna fly to US dollars cash. They're gonna fly to US Treasury bills because they know that the US cannot default because they simply print out money So yes, that's exactly what's happening right now That's a that's a very interesting saying Wait if we have a good question here from from Ben in the chat here This could be speculations But were there ever articles about micro strategy getting liquidated once Bitcoin hits 21k Do you guys know anything about that? I? Think I had seen some different articles posted about that But I think that they've kind of short up their things and they can get down to a price of I what I saw most recently was like $5,000 BTC before they really run into an issue. So Yeah, what happens? Yeah, they took out 205 million dollars About three months ago from Silvergate and they gave bitcoins as collateral But to start the trade you only need to deposit like 30% of 50% collateral So the price went down by 50% and even the CFO of Microsoft said at the time that if Bitcoin went below $21,000 they will have to further add Bitcoin as margin as collateral and Microsoft and Michael Saylor himself said using the entire 103,000 bitcoins they have Their liquidation price would drop to three point six thousand dollars Three six five seven. I think that was the number. So three thousand dollars But even if that's the case even if Bitcoin drops sub five thousand dollars He has other assets from the company that can be used as collateral So that's not really a liquidation risk for micro strategy Yeah, and there's micro strategy shows what like shows what how Celsius should have been better organized and all this Because a lot of this is again another platform with a large following that's Causing the whole market to tank because they're making some stupid moves or just trying to avoid losses But yeah, like you mentioned before or you were mentioning before the show Marcel like this is kind of exposing how much of Like just janky the whole a lot of crypto projects are and not really up to snuff when it comes to comparing how long More well-established financial institutions operate and this is just gonna kind of Light a fire under the whole crypto spheres But to try and get get get our house in order because This is like twice in a couple months where we just all been Thrown into like a house fire and like everybody run out. No Exactly Can you guys take a step back for me, please? Because I'm really not familiar first can us citizens use services like block fi and Celsius and land Landon and second why would anyone use that if they have other Options even centralized ones like binance offers staking and stuff Why would anyone use a third party a third company instead of going directly to defy or to the centralized exchange You want to jump in here join scene? Yeah, Celsius and then we're kind of seeing like Celsius and next so we're kind of seeing maybe even on the same level as a binance Where you can deposit your your cryptos there and earn rewards Binance obviously is not as open to us investors and Celsius and next so we're So it's block fee. I think that they actually had a decrease I know it's especially block feed it had a decrease How many how much they were offering to us citizens until there was a court case settled? but it was just a different option some Better yields and some and it was kind of being promoted as being a more safe option than some of the defy platforms Because they're kind of like a centralized entities Like Celsius and that but again, we're just learning that all things in crypto are highly risky and like it's something we all need to be aware of And I think the big draw is like these are kind of like a very Neobank-esque place where you can kind of sit your crypto earn your interests as you would in a traditional bank But we're kind of quickly finding out what's actually going on behind the scenes here And are they actually Collateralized enough to be able to to give people their their funds if there is a bank run And so we're going to see what kind of plays out here And I think you know Celsius is the tip of the iceberg. Maybe it You know matriculates over to a block fi platform I want to stay here on the macro level and then we're going to kind of dive into Bitcoin ethereum and then talk about what's going on with Celsius To really kind of bring some insights because I know we were talking pre-show And so so those are kind of the big topics But like the you know, don't forget cpi came out last week at 8.6% the highest it has ever been Inflation is at a 40 year high the highest we've ever seen here in the united states Did a massive sell-off by investors amid heightened inflation fears caused this crash marcel What is your take on why this crash is actually happening right here right now? Well, but I don't think the cpi has anything to do it because yes, the number was the highest in 40 years But it has been extremely high for the past two or three months. So that was not anything news What happens that starting june 1st The federal reserve could not no longer Buy buy back those mbs the mortgage back at securities Neither any debt instruments because they said or they they They promised to the senate And to the americans that they would reduce so the federal Federal reserve would reduce their balance sheet by one trillion dollars in 12 months So they can no longer buy those assets debt instruments mbs ETFs They are obligated to either sell Or to stay with their position, but they can no longer inflate the balance sheet anymore. So once they Exit to those markets. They were the the the biggest buyers around The market flipped bearish instantly. So that change on june 1st, but it took a couple of weeks until the market Interpreted and understood what was the magnitude of this change. So that's why we're seeing the effects the impacts right now But it all started on june 1st Yeah, and if you want to get really macro with that this goes this all goes back to 2008 when I have heard some really smart people say that the market broke in 2008 and they have never fixed it They've just papered it with a whole bunch of money and we saw that escalate in the last two years And now they're like, oh You can't print money forever Like it's not it's not going to work in a world where people are actually Giving physical assets or something in exchange for this printed money And like we we've been hearing from multiple people yelling like chicken little saying like this is going to not work And it's finally starting to break. I mentioned at the end of the last show like we're at the crux of multiple cycles Coming to an end and this is just going to be rough for the whole planet We're crypto ain't going to escape it because it's a new asset class. That's really just not not too involved with a lot of the bigger money as it is So, yeah, we're like, oh, there's no good answers here And we're all the whole world's in for a little bit of hurt for a while as Marcel's saying The mortgage back security market it broke in 2008. They never fixed it and now They've papered it over and kicked that can and they just try to kick the can again But they missed and like fell on our ass I I want to pull up a shirt real quick for big coin while we talk There's a point that if the let's assume that the federal reserve says, okay, let's print another treat two three hundred dollars Let's keep on buying those assets There's a point. There's the confidence on the us dollar itself Breaks and that's the worst thing that can happen because that can't be fixed You it took them a hundred years to build this dollar confidence Yeah, the us dollar is strong. We only print like four percent per year We've been paying our debts and stuff But you can break once you break the promise within a month or so us dollar can can lose the spot as the global reserve currency And it can take a week. It can take a month. We've seen that in venezuela We've seen that in argentina. We've seen that in turkey in brazil in iran in so many countries that hyper inflated their currency So I think that fed federal reserve will avoid that at all costs They cannot print another two trillion dollars right now to keep buying those assets. So As jordan said they kicked the bucket down the road But now they hit a crossroad. They they got to decide either we let inflation run its course by itself Or you're gonna Devalue the us dollar and we're gonna lose credibility with the market One thing I'll say here is like let's not forget if the us dollar loses its uh reserve status That that is that's gonna cause like tremendous ripple effects across the entire industry like yeah, ultimately Maybe we get to the goal of like hyper bitcoinization But like the collateral damage that will take place will just be catastrophic Um, and so like I I want to kind of better understand What is the fed, you know in your opinion jordan What do you think the fed is gonna do? Do they you think we're gonna see 75 basis points? At the next at the end of the next meeting are they gonna kind of stay the course and continue with 50 basis points? Because at this point doesn't appear to be working This is one of those times where i'm like Be grateful. You're not the ruler. You're grateful. You're not in charge because this is a shitty situation that ain't got No good answers like yeah, maybe they need a vulgar to come in and raise the interest rate to like 10 percent that might like Bam Like really cause a problem Are they gonna do that? No, because that would tank the stock market Which is really probably their number one goal to keep that elevated But I don't I don't I have no idea what they can do like This just makes me think of that argument how everybody's like, yeah, let's get 200 000 bitcoin What does that really mean when the price of an asset goes from $1,000 back in 2017 to $200,000 and potentially 2022 that means the value of the currency that's in use Fell out and that's what's happening. We're like, it's we we all wanted this and be like $600 silver $200,000 bitcoin. I'm like, what do I mean for the greater world when you can only buy one bitcoin with $200,000? The dollar which is the reserve currency of the world. Oh crap, man This is this isn't gonna be good folks and just prepare yourselves like I'm happy I spent the first like 25 of my years Finding inner peace because it's gonna be coming in handy coming real quick Happiness comes from within Marcel. What is your take is the Fed gonna have to to use all the tools in their toolkit? We're gonna see 75 basis point hike. What do you think? Benton first first of all, I don't think in a six to 18 months time frame. It's gonna make any difference Secondly, I don't think anyone wants to be the evil guy The guy who crashed the markets the guy the guy who pressed the button to raise interest rates by 100 basis points Why everybody was waiting for 50 base points So just give out what the market wants if the majority expects 50 basic points give 50 base points If at least 20 of the market expects 75 basis points, then okay, let's try 75 basis points But the inflation right now is running at 8.7 Maybe even 10 percent depending on the metrics use And interest rates are 2 3 percent. So It won't make a difference in six to 18 months time. That's my point I want to take a second to go through the chat here Looks like rich new design said he is holding with hopes and ecosystem value keeping things alive until they turn around 2024 2025 looks like he has a long-term perspective. Let us know what you all think right now Where is where is bitcoin gonna head next? Are we sub 20k? Are we gonna bounce back from this? I think we all kind of know what range we've been looking at recently We want to hear from you While we're waiting here, I want to pull up a quick chart. So Danila if you wouldn't mind just sharing my screen I want to pull up the bitcoin chart, which hopefully Gives you all just a little bit of hope here. I want to zoom in real quick on this area here This was the flash crash of march 2020 the whole covid outbreak We've seen look how much things have gained steam and just went parabolic This was when the money printing happened here And then the second high over here We are now currently down almost 67 percent from that all-time high Back in november. I mean so these are kind of key levels these green lines here that I was looking at We just lost the 28 29k now. We're approaching that 20k mark Marcel what kind of ranges are you looking at? Could we potentially see a bitcoin sub 20k in the next weeks ahead? Okay, so I don't want to scare anyone but I need to play to put the The elephant in the room Which is the us dollar that are the stable coin? Which holds 72 or 74? billion dollars in market cap if this stable coin Doesn't have an issue a liquidity issue or It continues to work. It doesn't have regulatory issues And it's because it's the most used currency on the asian exchange and derivative exchanges of If the tether holds grounds I firmly believe that 21 22 thousand dollars will be this cycle low but If the elephant decides to create problems if the tether depegs for over two days Below 90 cents, even if it's a liquidity if liquidity event. Yes, they have the money But it's tied up in commercial papers or whatever short-term loans and they cannot withdraw If tether creates panic, even if it's momentary even if it's for two weeks Then bitcoin can crash down to 12 thousand dollars and I have no doubt about that But I don't think that tether is an issue right now But if it does if it becomes an issue then we can see out the way down to 12 or 14 thousand dollars But right now my base Call my base bottom for this cycles bottom is 21 22 thousand dollars no lower no lower than this Jordan, what are your thoughts here? Are we gonna see some 20k bitcoin? That would take some pretty serious capitulations and as Marcel said I think that would take some major breakdown and Like the tether or usdc that really helped support the market I I I didn't think that we'd get much lower than 25. Okay, so that shows what I know, right, but just I I think like what you were saying Marcel about how if like if they say that people are expecting a 50 basis point raise They should do 50 the expecting 75. They should do 75 I think why that's really important now is because what they really need to do is manage people's expectations and And manage the propensity for humans to freak out because that's what really causes probably Assets don't necessarily lose all their value. What happens is humans freak out and sell it at a really low price And then smart humans are like, thank you, sir They come in and buy it up and jack the price back up Like has the price of bitcoin really collapsed has the value proposition that we've all been looking at really gone away No, there's just certain events going from luna to this current sell Celsius is a thing That's putting a tremendous amount of pressure on the crypto market specifically on top of all these events outside Whether it's war or high inflation or interest rates and all this crap. So it's all coming together and people Freak out. We do not we do not behave well in a crisis just in general So that's what really needs to be done is to kind of bring some sense of calm to the public and just really like let everybody Kind of come to the realization that we're going to be in for a time period of kind of lean Across all markets and manage your expectations. But don't just throw out the baby with the bath water And I want to take a second to kind of scroll through the twitter sphere here and see what people are saying as well Um, so to know if you wouldn't mind just pulling up my screen I want to I want to hit the twitter and kind of see what folks are talking about here We're going to blow this up here With btc fast approaching the 200 week moving average is important to be mindful of potential downside wicking behavior So essentially what wrecked capital is talking about here is this yellow line Uh, I'll zoom in here. This yellow line is the 200 day moving average. We've seen wicks go below this moving average And potentially could see something similar here is uh, what wrecked capital is talking about Will clementi saying this is business as usual for bitcoin. Remember, this isn't a few years people say you were lucky So it looks like he's has a chart here price drawdown from all-time highs We are sitting in that spot where people have accumulated previously and in the long run. They've been fine So will clementi has some some insights here Let's see The 200 day moving average you showed on um, you wrecked that's very similar to the realized price And that just crashed down below and I hate like as an analyst and writing articles And I see like every bear market the price has kind of crashed to the realized price before we've gone up And it's been sitting above it And I was like damn it that means it's going to crash eventually and we don't like to look at those things It's like bulls and stuff But eventually if you just accept it like it crashed below the realized price today I'm like there it is So maybe like this is it's a fun Definitely like I don't want to call it the final shakeout But it's like we're getting close to what bear markets have typically done So hopefully like we could trade sideways for three to six months for sure But hopefully the downside pain is is pretty much over for the most part I mean we could still see some I don't think we'll go down below 20,000 At least like the bear but the bullet means like no don't go down below 20,000 But like yeah, just typically what we've seen all the metrics are starting to get hit We're like bear market territory bear market territory. Okay. We've cleared that and now we can hopefully get rid of some of the the more like Fair weather traders and and get the hollers in here and markets can start hard enough. I don't know Yeah, I think we can all safely say that today marks The the blood is out on the streets. The majority of bitcoin wallets become addresses are in red We're touching the 200 day moving average. There's So many it's not a single indicator You're seeing a lot of indicators of the job and said they are telling you well this moment in time It's very different from what happened over the past month when bitcoin was hovering near 29,000 dollars, so It seems different. It doesn't mean that the bottom isn't necessarily But it tells you that comparing to similar situations in the past If you look forward if you advance in time six months 12 months We're going to see that moment as a clear buy signal But right now It yes, you can still go down another 30 to 40 percent. We don't know for sure But looking 12 months ahead 18 months ahead. It's going to be a clear buy signal. That's what jordan is saying It one of the things I think sam would say I was tweeting back and forth with him here before the show today is that Bitcoin has never dropped below its previous all-time high And so this 20k level I think is important for us to kind of monitor because if it does drop below that 20k mark That'll be the first time in its history. And so very kind of fascinating to look into that I see I'm going to take a second here though. I want to thank everyone for jumping in here to this special edition of the market report We are diving into what is going on with this market collapse with bitcoin ethereum And we're about to touch on the whole thing with celsius pausing there with draws swaps and transfers And so I want to take a second to go into the chat here and thank everyone for jumping in we got jona Why hasn't the petro dollar failed? We got people talking about gold Gold's even down. We talked about earlier on the show are people flocking to cash? Let us know your thoughts What are you doing in these scenarios? Where are you flocking to where are the safe havens? Are these buying opportunities or is this time to sit on the sidelines? Uh, next thing I want to get into though is this celsius business It seems to me like there's a lot of stuff happening that we are starting to find out about Um, and so I want to hand this over to marcelle to see if you can kind of tell us what's going on And what have you learned about the current situation and and why things are why did they pause there with draws? Okay, so first what we need to understand that the rapid versions of bitcoin ethereum and eth 2.0 Are not the same as the real thing Yes Rapid bitcoin Is secured by ERC and smart counters blah blah? We all know that But for instance if the ethereum network goes down If they're not validating blocks or if the transfer fee is The confirmation On the ethereum network goes to two thousand dollars. You cannot simply convert back those rapid bitcoins into bitcoins and sell them in the market In doing doing those crash times when the market is volatile and the same thing is happening to the Staked ethereum the ethereum 2.0 that seals celsius hold So it's trading below the value of the ethereum right now And also celsius had some Leverage bets on avi. They were landing stuff there using And they're they're being forced to deposit more bitcoins on avi not to get liquidated So the way that celsius Run things to create the yield for the deposits Is a little bit risky in terms of operational I'm not saying that they're a liquid. They they don't have the money. What I'm saying is that During volatile market times They they some sometimes are obligated to deposit large quantities of bitcoins and rapid ethereum on Defies and sometimes you can have issues doing that because of network congestion And uh, so right now the market is betting that celsius Is gonna have problems because most of their assets Are locked locked up on yield farms on uh, Staked ether and stuff like that. So if there's large enough withdrawals They won't have capacity to pay the holders. So that's why the celsius token is down And that's why the market thinks that eventually those avi And maker dow deposits will be forced to sell to reimburse the requests Because they use leverage So it's it's kind of a risky business But if the market was more prepared if celsius was more professional And more transparent about it, it wouldn't be a risk. But that's clearly not the case Jordan i'm curious to hear your take on this situation And if you wouldn't mind just in packaging for those who aren't familiar with like the celsius platform, like What exactly is it and then what could potentially be the contagion factor here? We talked about this with tera luna What kind of contagion factor could we see in potentially collateral damage with celsius? Yeah, let's say this is basically like like you kind of mentioned They're a pseudo bank almost you can deposit your crypto on there and you can earn a reward for it They what they do with the money is part of their business either they lend it out to other institutions at a premium or they deposit it and And mint some stable coins or something in the back and they use that to try and increase the money of their platform So as of myself saying it is risky and I think it's kind of exposing or Highlighting the risk involved with any of these collateralization platforms And how you really got to monitor your That your collateralization ratio and make sure that if you get if that ratio gets low You better put more funds in there or you're going to get liquidated because I think what we're seeing is A spark of liquidation is just cascading across the crypto ecosystem Causing prices of assets to be sold at lower price at lower levels Which again peaks the fear in people and causes them to further want to sell out So yeah, and this like contagion you mentioned this is contagion even from luna because celsius was exposed to luna and ust And like just nothing happens Like next day it takes a while for things to ripple through a system And we're seeing the ripple of luna catching up to celsius now And that could just send a whole ripple into other other facets of the crypto ecosystem, especially the defi ecosystem So like defi is going to go through a like a calling a major calling a lot of these platforms are going to go away and people are going to reevaluate What's actually possible? What's like sane amounts of Um yields that can be provided and what kind of collateralization and over collateralization they want to take on some of these positions But again, it's just it we're all getting a schooling and what it's like to actually try and operate a financial system and We're getting a good lesson I heard yesterday that a position of leverage ETH or wrapped ethereum From celsius on avi Worked like 65 million dollars was liquidated and the average liquidation price was sub 1.2 thousand dollars while the rest of the market was trading above 1.3 thousand dollars So why is the liquidation price on maker dow and avi Different from what we see on coinbase and bit stamp and the regular spot exchange What happens in this liquidation process? Because the market isn't as connected as we'd all like it to be it's siloed like like little markets siloed in separate areas And if somebody's selling on this market and the lowest the highest bid for that for ethereum is 1200 And they can't necessarily connect to our coinbase and sell it for higher They have to sell it at that price and that's what gets gets projected across all the different price feeds Whether it's a chain link oracle or whatnot. So again, like it's it's A liquidity factor in some points and the fact that we're still all these separate d5 platforms Can't communicate and and share liquidity Causes these these disc conjunctions in the market And it really ripples across it and then people go into arbitrage And then people that don't know what to do and freak out and just sell it. So yeah, it's It's a whole lot of confusion and and disjointed markets So I I want to better understand like let's play this out a worst-case scenario. This is pure speculation But I also want to I want to find out if if for some reason Celsius cannot Withpay the withdrawals or deposits of their users What would happen in the markets or what would the fallout look like? Uh, Jordan, what is your your take on on what could potentially be behind the Celsius scenes Well, that would really depend on what they do with those funds because they have the funds they're like He's saying if if they're locked up in different staking contacts or collateralized Then they can't just if if people start freaking out right now and try to go on and withdraw their funds from Celsius And these funds are locked up. They won't be able to meet those obligations. So I'm just guessing here But it looks like they've stopped that so they can make it so that the positions that they do have They don't have to liquidate at lower prices And hopefully try to get back to a more like stable or higher point in the market before they allow people to start withdrawing So like it really depends on are they gonna just start selling all these positions because if they do then that would just tank the market I'm like part of me is happy that people can't get their funds out because they might turn around and sell it Because they're freaking out. So I like I don't there's no good situation here. Like again, it's not your keys. It's not your cryptos Anybody that I used Celsius at one point But then it ran into problems of a few months ago and I took all my cash off of it So like I knew the risks back then and I I saw them riding on the wall and got out If you didn't I apologize. I'm sorry for that But this is crypto and there's always risk if anybody ever tells you that there's no risk Run away from that project because there's always risk in crypto Tell in risk that we never account for, you know I think for example Nexo An a Celsius competitor just offered to buy all of their assets at a fair price considering the the risk on the lock up on each asset So I don't think Celsius is gonna implode but I do think that If I had like One dollar at Celsius right now I would sell that for somebody at 90 cents at 10% discount So I think that's what's gonna happen basically So if Nexo or another competitor buys out what Celsius the Celsius holdings They're gonna give a discount because of the risk and because of the lock up involved because it's gonna take some time To withdraw those funds and there's also the liquidity risk from the defi and having to put more btcs collateral Not to get liquidated on avi and maker doll. So what I think is Most likely all the users are gonna get a haircut what we call. Well, yes, we own you 25 billion dollars, but we only got 22 billion dollars from Nexo. So that's what we're paying That's 10% discount. Sorry for that. It was a risk that was clearly written when we Signed up with us as a service. So I think that's the most likely scenario I don't agree with Jordan necessarily that if An investor lost money on Celsius or uh, luna that he's gonna exit crypto markets because when the market tanks Maybe some investor that had been waiting for two years Thinks, well, bitcoin was at $69,000. Now it is $20,000. Yeah, I'm gonna step in and buy by some back So a man one man's uh How do you say Yeah, it's another man's treasure. So there's always a buyer to come around Yeah, I was just I was more referring to like They're gonna be panic selling and driving their price lower. Yeah people I said the smart people are gonna be there like scooping it up Like thank you, sir But yeah, I don't like I don't want to see those Weekends driving the price even lower like unless I want unless I got orders sitting on if I got a order sitting on for $17,000 Bitcoin hell, yeah drive that price lower, please, but You don't have bits out of eight down to $15,000 on bitcoin and $800 on Ethereum If you're if you don't have bits, you're not doing this right I don't got that much free cash right now, man I was gonna say I feel like uh, most of us deployed our capital uh already but uh, maybe Maybe we're gonna go lower. So should have maybe held a little bit longer I want to go to the chat real quick. Shalom is saying defi is in beta I think that's uh, probably a good point. We're all very early, especially with defi and uh, how institutions want to get involved But there's there's a lot of stuff that needs to be worked out Uh, to know if you wouldn't mind just pulling up my screen because there was a twitter thread Out there that I want to cover but we're gonna pull up this memo actually from celsius to hear it from the horse's mouth Uh, this is the memo they sent out to their community members Essentially was saying we're taking this action today to put celsius in a better position to honor over time. It's withdrawal obligations Uh, the one thing I want to highlight here is that they said that it could take there will be delays So we're working with us seeing their focus to protect and preserve assets to meet our obligations Uh, the thing is is like we don't know when this is going to finish or when they can actually Uh, unpause the withdrawals or deposits. So we're going to see what happens when they actually open it up Hopefully they're ready for what is about to happen We want to get into this thread next though, uh from jason yanowitz He said there's three stages of a bear market. We just entered stage two. Well, what was stage one while the unwind This is excitement from the bull market still exists. Many narratives are popping up You kind of saw this happen the stage one doesn't feel like a bear market feels like prices pulled back To realistic valuations. Well stage two comes along forced capitulation. This is where it gets ugly Narratives die prices fall 90% than another 90% layoffs across the board. We're seeing this now We can say I think that stage two was probably partly partly due to luna So luna sent us to stage two is what he's saying next in stage two diamond hands become forced sellers They sell not because they want to but because they have to Celsius and doesn't want to sell they might have to sell There will be more funds companies and individuals like Celsius So what jason's saying is there's other companies out there that could be in a very similar position. Who's next? We're gonna find out In stage two any bounce will be immediately sold into the dead camp dead cat bounce price The lower prices go the louder the bear gets then what is stage three? Well stage three is bottomless Exhaustion after max pain comes max exhaustion. There are no bounces. There are no narratives prices consolidate sideways or slowly move down It's boring at the bottom's anger is replaced by silence During stage three, you'll want to walk away regulators will kick us while we're down Your favorite twitter djens will get a quiet web two investors will quietly stop allocating Talented builders will leave companies will shut down very grim stage that be sitting here in stage three stage three Is the toughest to revive if your company do whatever it takes to get through if your builders stay interested find other builders Buildal with them if you're an investor develop your own thesis take bets on people you believe in and this is one point Thank you to know is that I want to emphasize I just got back from consensus And I was talking to a lot of ec's and and I was asking them. Well, how are you looking at things right now? And how do you look at your prospectus five years 10 years from now? And what they're telling me is listen We're we're betting on the builders and the team members for projects because they have to have experience And been through the bear markets to be able to get to this point be able to survive What's about to happen? So the vcs are saying we're not betting on the technology or this or that we're betting on the people To be able to innovate and stay strong and continue to thrive through what could potentially be a historic bear market head Yeah, go ahead Marcel Let's take the the simple case the x infinity game They created a whole second layer solution the running blockchain for that And they place it all their money and bets on the single game And once they found out. Yeah, the players are losing interest on that So let's create x infinity 2.0 with metaverse and stuff and then the market tank it So instead of diversifying or creating multiple platforms or even selling or Landing the the rolling platform to other games. No, they decided to do Something close something like resembles the traditional gaming finance industry. No, we hold the the trademarks We hold the players. We're not sharing the technology with everyone and they failed miserably So the vcs are saying one thing But they're doing another thing the same thing happened to the luna ecosystem A lot of people placed their whole Bats and their whole company funds on the luna ecosystem on a single stablecoin If the vcs were smart enough, they would have created alternative Instruments inside the luna ecosystem. So not only an algorithmic Stablecoin but a traditional stablecoin, but they didn't do that. So I think the vcs are changing their speech As they're seeing their strategy unfold badly So If you're going to invest in something that it's new that It's a new technology that is growing. It has potential. You've got to diversify You cannot pick a single ecosystem I'm gonna bet all my bets all my money in solana ecosystem because it's the new return and etc No, you cannot do that. There's too much risk involved Give me give me two ecosystems that you are most bullish about like in the long term Uh, I'll start with jordan on this one and then we'll kick it over to marcel next Obviously ethereum just because it's the big dog. What would I have to go with next? Oh put me on the spot. Let me think um I have lunch will probably do well long term. I need to look more into his technology I do like solana even though it's been put through the ringer and had issues. I don't know. It's this is a different technology I think we could see we'll see I don't know Right now it's hard to tell you guys what's good. I was gonna say it's hard to pick the winners right now But if you had to pick two horses to ride on Marcel, who are you picking? I always hear compliments about solanas technology Like yes, it's centralized but it works as From a technology perspective It can handle much more transactions and capacity and demand than avalanche than Bitcoin cash and whatever a big block solution They were planning. So yes, it's a centralized solution but the team and the the the project From a technical perspective is good, but I also like Polygon my tick As a scaling solution from ethereum. So considering ethereum would never launch the the 2.0 I think Polygon my tick is a safe bet for that Fair enough I think I think my two picks would be obviously ethereum everything is connected to that That's not going anywhere, right? And then I would pick cosmos I think daddy ecosystem again when the dust settles here from the bear market And we're going to be talking about the next bull run I think interoperability is going to be What ultimately pans out in the long run cosmos? I think is ahead of the curve there and they've been building and building and building for years So I think they're going to stand the test of time When it comes and the dust settles here. So those are my kind of two long-term picks. Go ahead, jordan You just want to say like jordan going going back back on topic And you mentioned leman brothers like for anybody that was really caught off guard about what's happening Think about what happened to leman and realize like it didn't just happen overnight That was building up for years. Just like what's happening right now has been building up for a while It's just the state of the world in a place where it actually affected the market and once one one little domino Tips over that cascade starts going and the market just falls out But then that's what we've seen in crypto in the past. So yeah, realize that there was issues coming there have been issues for months and months whether it's tether or luna Or celsius. These issues were known to certain people and they were always going to have to be overcome in the future So we're getting that out of the way now. There will be more issues in the future But just realize like we're on a journey a long journey Developing a whole new asset class and there's going to be ups and ups and downs on this road so just if you have the long-term vision in crypto just Stay true to it diversifies Marcel is mentioning and and just realize like we're in for the long haul here It I want to zoom out and add color to that too because like if you think about web 2 Users all the end users lived and thrived at the application layer when we look at web 3 You can put the dapps inside of that layer as well And and when we have this mass adoption cycle, whatever that be in five years 10 years Whatever that looks like end users are going to live and breathe at that dapp layer and they're not going to care What chain is doing what and how they just want to know that is the dapp providing the value They don't won't care if they're on salon or ethereum or this or that does it work. Is it cheap? Uh, does it add value to the end users life? And so uh, we're going to see what shakes out in the long run. There is a reckoning coming For all of these l ones. It's going to be interesting to see what's going to happen here Uh, but those are might have kind of two cents in regards to what could potentially come next here in the future so I would the last question I kind of want to jump into here is When we look at things in the short term, what are you what is your strategy right now? How are you approaching this? Uh, we heard kind of like jordan touch on this marcel How are you strategizing around what trades you should be making and not making because sometimes we know Best trade to make is the one not to make Yeah, uh, let me prep a screen here So basically there are two indicators that I like to monitor To see if the market is really stressed out if it's like a potential bottom or not So the needle can you share my screen, please? So first one is the analyzed basis. So the premium of the bitcoin futures contracts Versus the spot markets at coin base and bit stamp and cracking so futures the quarterly futures should trade at four percent to eight percent analyzed premium In normal markets, it means that to which to which stand to hold the segment longer The traders are demanding more money. So when this premium goes to zero or negative It means that we're in a bear market and even the professional traders are not willing to long to buy using leverage And that's exactly the case as what happened today The futures premium went to zero for a couple of hours Meaning that they were not willing to buy the future contracts at any price Except at a discount to the to the current price, which is not a good scenario So this is the first indicator that tells me. Well, the market seems to be stressed So yes, you can plunge down to 70 17 thousand dollars 18 thousand dollars. I don't know what the bottom is going to be But right now it's losing the rational for the price And the second indicator I like to monitor is the options market skill. So the higher the skill means the less Interest in downside risk those professional traders are accepting So a high skill means those traders are not willing to take downside bets for the bitcoin price and that's again Exactly what happened today the skewing indicator reached 26 point 27 point six Which is the highest reading ever It means that you call the market maker and sell and say, well, I Want I want you I want to sell you a position that if the market plunges I win money I get money and you lose and the market maker is saying, yeah, I can do that But I'm gonna overcharge you by 27 and that has never happened in bitcoin history. Thank you danilo So what I'm seeing right now. It's It's the today is the day By at least 20 to 30 percent of what you're planning over the next year So if you have fiat to spare and you can wait six months or longer At least a third of the position 30 percent of your position should be deployed today No matter what happens to the market over the next weeks because Uh, the market lost its reference. It doesn't know how to price things right now But real quick before jordan before you jump in here I want to ask the chat if you have any burning questions that you want us to answer I'll open up the floor here After jordan gives his response on how he's approaching things and what his strategy is Again, we thank you all for joining this special edition of the mark report, but jordan. What's your strategy? How are you approaching these markets? Shalom dum's comments right now. It's really important The only Chart you need is the weekly RSI which shows the most oversold in history right now And I just showed you another chart the bitcoin option skill that showed the most Different prices for upside risk and downside risk in options So just showed that even professional traders are completely lost. They don't know how to price bitcoin right now Yeah, and that's kind of saying when you get the when you get retail foamers like Foamling out of the market. They'll just dump it to unreasonable prices And this really reminds me of what sam had been saying for weeks about how This feels like that six thousand dollar range of hell that we were stuck in forever in 2018 And then it dumped the three thousand dollars, which is right now We just dumped from 29,000 steady for like a month down to 22 something earlier So that makes me go like oh contrarian I'm right. I could actually like honestly I started Deploying a little bit of dca capital last week on chain link. So I'm a little underwater on that position But like I'm like, oh, I'm even more motivated now to actually kind of start thinking about dca Yeah, I can go down more. It's never gone below. It's previous all-time high So if it does that's going to be a real black swan event even in that case. I don't know from here I'm comfortable On a long-term outlook to start dollar cost averaging now just because these are really good prices Some of these prices we haven't seen since 2020 and if it's a legitimate project And the fundamentals are still there. There's no reason that you wouldn't buy it now if you were buying it above this price I think you make some some great points there and dollar cost averaging is your friend During these times pick your basket of projects that you believe in and that will be here for the long term Again, these are all the expressed personal opinions of ourselves not financial advice But now is the time where great projects are built. I said it last week on the show Great projects are built during bear markets And so those are the ones that are going to come out the other side of this And like jordan said these price levels we haven't seen in two years And people were banging on the doors when we were at 60k bitcoin. Where are you now? Dollar cost averaging dollar cost average out on the way up I'm going to open up the floor here to the audience though. If you have any questions I'm going to give you One minute here to give us your burning question that you want our panel to to answer today In the meantime, I'll let you all question from Lucas to the skinny What do you guys think about the eth bdc ratio? Is it bottom or more downside to go? Do you want to kick us off there marcel? I think when the market is stressed Investors fly to what they're considered more safe. So I think that the ratio for the next Cup of months could still find some 20 30 percent bottom below what we're seeing right now Because when the panic kicks in it takes time for the investors to Okay, let's see if ethereum defy applications are gonna Continue working if the maker down on the die algorithm stable coins keep its bag and stuff like that So they're gonna wait and see for a couple of weeks two or three weeks until they decide Okay, it is safe to buy it here. It doesn't matter if it's a thousand dollars or two thousand dollars But the defy ecosystem continues working. So it's fine. Now and I want to buy it back Yeah, I think that Jordan what you're taking more in a lot of institutions might be a little bit more prone to wanting to go into btc So it's a good chance that the eth price drops comparatively speaking But if if eth is what you're really into like I don't I don't like to try and pick bottoms That's a that's a losing game If you like eth dollar cost average eth if you like bitcoin dollar cost average bitcoin if you like them both The dollar cost average both You can it's up to you to figure out that ratio which one you should do more but Eth is gonna be around long term A majority vast majority of defy and all the different applications are not on top of ethereum So that gives it a really good value proposition Bitcoin on your hand is just is more just a store of value and monetarily your transferring value. So A lot of people might be more prone to want to buy eth in that regards and it might have I think long term it has a better upwards Like it'll perform better long term than bitcoin will when it when the market does turn around just in that perspective But again, that's up to individual investor and dollar cost averaging is going to be the name of the game Probably for the next year Exactly And I think we're going to go lower. I mean, that's my that's my kind of consensus On where we're going both bitcoin and ethereum But the good news is the fundamentals have not changed for either one of those with the exception eth With the whole little eth 2.0 kind of thing That's still still yet to be determined But I don't think we're going to see something catastrophic. Sure. It's going to drop below a thousand. I think that's going to happen Bitcoin we're going below 20k that will be a weird funky event for everyone But I think that will happen So as jordan mentioned just dollar cost averaging in I don't care what the price level is because I know five ten years from now Everyone will win out Any closing thoughts for today's show? This has been the special edition of the marker report Marcel final thoughts and then jordan, I'll let you share and we will close this thing out I just want to thank everyone that participated and for the good questions and remember Not a single analyst not even micro strategy or tesla who bought over a billion dollar Words of bitcoin new or could predict that the price would plunge below $30,000 otherwise they would have waited to buy at a lower price But what those guys are doing and what we are recommending is for you to have a longer term view Yes, it's painful to see your portfolio down 40 50 percent We've been that in the last cycle in 2018 2019 and those who survived those who are Savvy enough to understand it's a volatile market. We're still too early in this game they saw Bitcoin price go from $3,000 or $5,000 out of the way to $69,000 and we're gonna see that in the next cycle, so just Keep keep your head up Stay in the game. Don't get liquidated. Don't use leverage Vca if you need but stay in the game don't get out because you're losing 70 to 80 percent It's not how it works And jordan you're closing thoughts for today Yeah, like I've said before when all when all those people like man, I wish I could have bought bitcoin at 100 bucks Realize you would have been in for like six of these types of events Which just put your gray hair on people's heads. So like cryptos volatile Except that risk It's gonna come back eventually. We're just definitely a down market now There's a rule you'll hear people talk about certain rules like don't invest more in crypto than you can lose It's really important to kind of monitor those major recommendations and kind of stick with them And if you're feeling kind of bad or sad or anything right now, don't be afraid to reach out and talk to somebody to get some help because If especially the way that crypto market can suck you in it can really throw people for a loop when we get these downturns And I don't want to see anybody hurting themselves or anything like that. So if you need to reach out and talk to somebody Realize long-term crypto will come back A lot some of the coins you have might not get back to their old time highs or they might fade away But that's just a game kind of stay positive sticking there for a long term Try to take a longer time horizon and just kind of keep on keeping on Well said and I think uh, you know what jordan Is is also saying that I will emphasize is that your health is your wealth in the day. It's just crypto. All right so Like Marcel said stay in the game We appreciate everybody that tuned in today. If you haven't liked to subscribe Coin telegraph on youtube. We have our show lined up for tomorrow 12 p.m. Eastern our regular scheduled show today It was a special one that we want to dive into a lot of this stuff So we appreciate you tuning in today and asking all those burning questions Again, we will see you tomorrow until next time over and out