 The following is a presentation of TFNN The morning market kickoff With your host Tommy O'Brien Tommy O'Brien. Good morning everybody. I'm Tommy O'Brien coming to you live from TFNN Wednesday morning at 9 0 6 a.m We got about a half hour to go until the starter trading and markets in positive territory to kick things off yet Again, we got a private payrolls missed this morning ahead of non-farm payrolls on Friday Alphabet Google crushes it out of the park last night. They're gonna be splitting 20 for one Mike distorted level two high. Okay, apologies. Let me see if I can get that down for you one second for me Testing one two. Hopefully that's going a little bit better there S&P's right now up 29 points. Let me know if we're doing well right now the NASDAQ 100 up a hundred and seventy seven The Dow up 12 points in the Russell is flat this morning saying that again. We got non-farm payrolls on Friday We got private payrolls with a decrease of 300 and 1000 jobs in January. Why not? We'll bring the headline over right now Unexpectedly is the headline folks. I've been talking about it this week Do not be surprised if the non-farm payroll number comes in negative on Friday. Also, don't be surprised if the market doesn't react too heavily We're going through quite a spike from the Omicon variant. I'm recovering from COVID myself my family There's no denying the work-life impact that something like that has when it reverberates around the country like it is right now Let alone the unfortunate human toll that it is doing with over 2,000 people a day dying right now But even if you're not dying When you're talking business, okay, and and the humanity of this is really what matters folks but the business side of things matters too because our economy is necessary for the country to flourish and You're gonna see a weak number whether it's negative whether it's zero whether it's barely in the positive Okay, this is a heads up we see a decrease of 301,000 jobs in January, but guess what that number hits Yeah, we see a little bit of a pullback. There's your uh, no, that's not the volatility. Excuse me Yeah, it looks like a 30 nothing no too huge dramatic pullback. I mean you're talking about Right now 15 16 points off of the highs of 45 80 this morning We'll jump over to the Nasdaq 100 quite a day for the Nasdaq 100 up to 15,000 260 We've backed off a bit Google. They are an advertising machine, man. We're gonna go over to Google Google shares alphabet 3,010 folks we were just trading at 2,500 less than a week ago You just traded up more than $500. That's a 20% run of the price of Google from where you were less than a week ago They're gonna be splitting 20 for one along with one of the just a bang out quarter in a big way And why don't we'll jump over to their numbers real quick as well Alphabet stock surges 10% on the back of blowout earnings is how they put it there You jump down to the number earnings per share. They beat by more than $3 $30 and 69 cents per share versus 27 34 revenue for 90 days 75.33 billion versus 72 point one seven just amazing the expectation for these technology companies and you got Apple crushing it out of the park by billions of dollars in beat you got Google crushing it out of the park billions of dollars in beat Advertising revenue jumped in the quarter revenue for the segment 61.24 billion folks a year ago. They're only pulling in 46 billion. I mean think about this Google Okay, now I remember being in my dorm I'm gonna try and place the year with sophomore year because I can remember I remember my roommate sophomore year Graduated high school in 98. So maybe freshman year. I'm talking a year but right around year 2000 My roommate is a very bright Technology major and he came into Google. You know, you want to search the internet you gotta use Google That was 22 years ago. Okay, they've been accelerating ever since then just remarkable Over the last year alone that Google is up 33 percent folks We are changing our tendencies in life and YouTube Is is an entity that is unmatched on the internet folks. I got kids in the house. They watch Google YouTube I watch YouTube TFN and streams on YouTube Very robust advertising revenue growth implies the overall demand environment has stayed healthy amidst volatile supply chain and macro Uncertainties I would say so now you get into cloud. That's gonna be a big segment in the future At least that's the hope of investors revenue growth of 45 percent. You're only dealing with 5.5 4 billion on that number 65 percent year-over-year growth in the number of cloud deals worth over a billion dollars. They like to see that Wall Street firms out there up in the air auntie. You got 3,900 out there from UBS Yeah, quite a number indeed and Yeah, Google was one of the best stocks last year We had quite a pullback there putting this thing on a three-year weekly. You see the pullback folks We're gonna open near all-time highs. You get it all back. You got it all back so much for the tech pullback Of of of carnage. You get it all back on Google now as we go through the week We're gonna get Amazon out with their numbers. I believe tomorrow Yes, Amazon will be out their numbers tomorrow after the bell Amazon straighten up a solid $50 right now as well Amazon's gonna open at about 3,080 remarkable that you're popping from a low level of 2,700 just like that Amazon is up about that 11% off of the lows and back at about 3,080 we jump over to Apple shares that's your three-year weekly Apple's gonna trade basically flat Yeah, over the market one seventy four sixty seven we jump around to the other fang stock Microsoft shares up as well with the market by about a dollar from 308 to 309 Maybe that's a little bit of cloud Getting into that as well Maybe down a little bit more. Let me help my mic. I had a couple people in my office last night And unfortunately, I think they messed with some of my dials Okay Let's jump around to see what else we have going on. I am gonna break down Those Google numbers a little bit more so 20 for one You're gonna be talking about a stock trading right next to Apple almost. I mean less than Apple The split could help alphabet gain entry into the Dow industrial average. You can't be in there at 3,000 That's for sure price-weighted index not gonna happen. You're trading at 140 much more in the realm of reasonable that they could be in there Bringing back stock splits to the market spent a while 20 for one aiming to entice and numerous small investors who flocked to the stock market during the pandemic The stock is trading higher on that one in a big way. And yeah, they said roughly 138 But guess what we know Google's already trading above 3000 right now. So you're talking about easy math $150 and yet talk about a relentless rally on Google shares Dow entry another motivation could be that they might get into the Dow price-weighted index a barrier for years Yeah, Amazon's not getting in there Google Alphabet is not getting in there. Yeah archaic weighting system I've said it many times before as folks if you ever were like a teacher in a finance class and you said Create a method that you're gonna design an index and you said I'm gonna make it price-weighted That has nothing to do with market capitalization I'd probably fail that student because it makes zero sense whatsoever to make an index price-weighted that has nothing to do with market Capitalization, but nonetheless that is how the Dow works Share splits have nearly disappeared from the US stock market recently only two in 2019 2019 47 in 2006 and 2007 and yeah Apple and Tesla brought it back to attention after they split in 2020 and Tesla that really Accelerated things we jump to Tesla shares. They're trading at 933 if you recall you back Tesla up Just I gotta remember when they split it might have been right back around here We'll have to pull it up Tesla on the split deal But nonetheless Tesla accelerated 1243 you're back 931 so far for Tesla this morning We'll get back and we'll take a little bit of a look at that ADP number folks a decrease of 301,000 for pirate private heroes for the month of January and February 2nd something folks is my son's birthday. Happy birthday Tommy one year old your old I think that folks has a quick year Got love it Everything in the universe is governed by the Fibonacci sequence this mathematical principle is responsible for everything From the most aesthetically pleasing artwork to patterns in the stock market to stay on top of stock patterns You can take advantage of sign up for the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter at tfnn.com when you subscribe You'll get a weekly report from veteran day trader Larry Pezzavento on stocks You need to pay attention to and you can trust Larry's analysis after all He's got 45 years experience as a day trader Larry will also provide daily charts videos and data on the key markets That he's tracking expect notifications from Larry on market movement You need to act on at any time first-time subscribers also get a 30-day money back guarantee If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up Subscribe to the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter today tfnn.com educating investors What's separating you from the most successful men and women on Wall Street, that's right Information having all the information gives us the perspective we need to place the right trades at the right time The TAS profile scanner is the premier market profile base scanner Powered by its acclaimed TAS proprietary algorithms this feature rich scanner instantly filters over 2,500 plus global financial markets such as stocks, ETFs, commodities, futures and forex This powerful suite of tools Leverages instant trade filtering and strategy formulation to show you emerging trades Before they happen for a limited time You can save $100 off your first month by using the promo code upgrade and you still get a 30-day money back guarantee So you have nothing to risk Level the playing field with the TAS profile scanner which you can find under the services tab at tfnn.com Sign up today Sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument You have to practice sure, but you also need excellent instruction from experts at tfnn You'll get advice and guidance from the authority and technical market analysis, and it's not just dry tedious text either tfnn airs live financial content streamed live on tfnn.com and tfnn's YouTube channel with Tiger TV live every market day from 8 30 a.m. To 4 p.m. Eastern for free each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions Live from around the world from the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money watch online at tfnn.com or on tfnn's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be tfnn educating investors Welcome back folks. We get the s&p's up 28 points right now. You get the Nasdaq 100 up 169 points right now We got Google shares folks checking in on Google Alphabet trading right at about 3,000 You got a bid ask of 3,001 by 3,004 let's jump over to our man Kevin Hinks every trading day folks noon Eastern time Kevin Hinks Tom White the team at TD Ameritrade Network on fast market breaking down the day's market action talking about defined risk Talking options talking earnings Kevin Hinks, how about those Google earnings man? You ready to buy some Google at about 150 bucks a share or what? I'll tell you By definition, it's important that your viewers know that a stack split Does not change a company in any financial way It's called financial engineering right and all you do is reduce the price and you get more shares now That being said I've traded Dozens and dozens of these over the years and there is a massive Mental aspect of this because you're gonna look at Google Alphabet and you're right it's gonna be between 150 and 200 dollars and So that right there changes everything when you look at a company like what like this Tommy? So it's gonna be fun to trade this as it comes out and Yeah, it's gonna be a big day and but and by the way Don't think for a minute That all eyes don't turn to Amazon with with the same Mention as Google trades, you know $3,000 Amazon trades almost $4,000 Tommy Really remarkable man. We saw about the same price. I should say that sorry and This you make a great point man. We've all seen it. It's really interesting how they've kind of gone to the wayside Kevin I mentioned I think they're only two stock splits in the SB 500 in like 2019 I think I pulled up they've kind of gone to the wayside as we all know but Tesla man And Apple as well. They really accelerated. We see it in Google the advertising numbers, man I was going over it. I know you've seen it Kevin, but growing a company that's doing $46 billion last year in the quarter by 33 percent the 61.24 billion dollars over a year man Just amazing these tech companies can grow at 33 percent over a year. You can't overstate it man So Google accelerating higher. We have Amazon higher as well. It will be interesting is Maybe we get some of these tech companies coming back to a more reasonable level One of the reasons that you talk about and the team at TD Ameritrade Network We talk about sometimes on TFNN as well I learned a lot from you guys saying one of the best ways to trade some of these equities if you can't afford a $3,000 a pop a share is maybe using options But Kevin even when you get to $3,000 man, you know, I think Google had a hundred and twenty seven dollar move Priced in just yesterday and their earnings It's still kind of pricey sometimes to use options when you're dealing with equities that are three to four thousand dollars So interesting that they're going to bring it down a little bit Jumping from that to the private payrolls number We all know that we might get a week number on Friday a little bit dicey action when we come in at minus 301 what should take on that private payroll ADP number this morning? Yeah, you know, there was whispers out there that these numbers coming out this week might be weak I don't think anyone thought they'd be that weak as you look at this number and Obviously the Omicron variant has had a pretty big toll on payrolls What what was alarming to me the service providing sector down two hundred and seventy four thousand jobs that's the lion's share of the three hundred and one thousand and You know small companies losing almost half at a hundred and forty four thousand So yeah, this is alarming number Here's the only thing you can hang on to if you're trading these markets in terms of Friday's non payroll number For some strange reason, there's very little correlation between the ADP number and the non-farm payroll number on Friday The misses are huge and the average miss on this number is about 294,000 so you can do the math on that one Tommy, but certainly when you look at a Sector break down and it's you're from a service providing sector no pluses on the board only Natural resources in mining was up 4,000 jobs in the goods providing sector So no pluses in the service for by providing sector. That's a big one Tommy Yeah, and it's it's it's understandable in my mind Kevin has telling listeners, you know My family had a little COVID outbreak last week and kind of hear it in my voice right now getting over it Everybody doing well thankfully, but you talk about a work life balance Kevin even if I hadn't gotten it myself, right? I have a fiance who's out. I got two kids at home, right? You got to take care of the kids Maybe you're isolating the disruption in life man when you're dealing with this many cases Not surprising that you're seeing some some harsh numbers in January But I've also said that man we come out of this Kevin right my own family included I got two kids under the age of five in my house that had not had the chance to get vaccinated yet We were maybe looking for the opportunity to get them vaccinated before we really get out into those big crowds of people Talking Disney talking movie theaters. Well, guess what man? We're gonna be over that hump now You know Disney's in the conversation getting back out in the conversation. We've seen a little bit of rotation to some of that Getting back out into the economy trade whether it's Disney Uber travel socks, etc. This week Just interesting as that plays out, but my own personal experience I'm probably not the only one going through that man when these cases are just so high And it's just such a disruption even a TFNN right if we had plans to hire somebody in the last week or two Maybe that gets pushed back Kevin, you know, and I know I'm speaking of the masses. You understand it But when you live it man, it's it's easy to see that disruption But maybe that's a transitory disruption to use the word of the year And we look forward, you know, I've also stated I don't imagine that's gonna have too big an impact on the Fed or the market because just like I'm looking forward I think it's a it's a it's a statement of what we're going through man And hopefully we're over this hump and in in a month that the things correct themselves. So we go from Google We got Facebook today, man. We got meta. They're an advertising giant. They're trading higher this morning They're already up about nine bucks to 328. They were just under 300 bucks a couple days ago remarkable acceleration What are you looking for Facebook this afternoon Kevin? Like Paulie will do a presentation on Facebook Alex coffee and I will be doing the show today We're bringing back the young man back into the fold for a couple days here as we work with some vacation time So Alex coffee and I get in the band back together. So Like Paulie will do presentation on Facebook meta We'll also trade qualcomm in the first segment show and here's one that is a lightning ride for attention Let me spotify in the third segment. So we'll trade Qualcomm Facebook and Spotify today You got a lot going on the show man a classic episode with Kevin Hinks and Alex coffee at the helm of fast market Facebook, man I've been talking about it. I got the Oculus Quest 2 I told you during Christmas man pretty amazed at the technology But it is going to be remarkable to see how much money they might try and spend to achieve Perfection in the world of virtual reality because it seems like that's almost an endless amount of money that you could be spending Facebook will be out after the bell tonight and they're training at 328 Kevin man, you're gonna have plenty to talk about today. We look forward to the program at 12 noon as always man We will be watching Big day today Tommy. Have a great day. Thanks for having me on you too Kevin Thanks for the update as always. We'll be watching at 12 noon today folks. It's an outstanding program Check it out on days like today, especially you're gonna have the private payrolls talking about you're gonna have qualcomm You know Facebook in there and Spotify Spotify no matter what you think folks about what they have going on with Rogan Remarkable when you look at the acceleration this thing has from a trader's perspective You were just down from 300 bucks in November to 164 and now you're opening at 207 right now We'll see where that thing holds Spotify right now up three points in the pre-market S&Ps holding on to the gains up 25 points the Dow actually just slipping into the negative and you get the Nasdaq 100 Lean the way up 176 points. Stay tuned folks. We'll be coming right back for the opening bell. 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You're trading up two hundred and sixty two dollars That's a nine point five percent pop to the upside on Google shares And they're gonna be split in twenty four ones you're talking about about a hundred and fifty bucks a pop for Google shares We jump over to Amazon Amazon shares up 48 bucks pulling back a little bit from the open We jump over to meta Facebook They're up 1.6 percent pulling back a little bit as well Facebook will be out with their earnings after the bell You're talking about a $17 move priced into their number for their earnings tonight now Facebook Going up the line here Zuckerberg's virtual bet has yet to give meta a stock boost So since they announced this in October the stock is actually flat Since that date getting down to the numbers here where we go. Come on Excuse me one second. I just had it Here we go roughly flat since October when the company changed its name from Facebook to meta which got a little bit of a Tongue-and-cheek on the internet in terms of Really could they just couldn't could they be a little bit more creative in in something than just meta But he wants to go full in there's no way to deny that Now it's the cheapest of the mega tap mega tech mega cap technology stocks I'll get it trading at a 20% discount to the Nasdaq 100 index and this has a lot to do with many things number one They announced that name change during a total debacle of basically Public relations. Okay, Facebook folks. I say it all the time do not hang out on Facebook It does not do good things for your mindset for your kids period. All right, Instagram I'm a lot more fond of but even Instagram the stories come out They are well aware that young girls are just getting destroyed for their personas on Instagram because all they're seeing are these unattainable Personas on Instagram that they're trying to live up to when you're in the the the fragile state of any teenager teenager growing up With that said the metaverse part of things is pretty enticing but how much is it going to cost? Okay, Zuckerberg has said the initiative would be a 10 billion dollar drag on operating profit just this year alone folks This is an endless hole of money that you can throw money into this is going to be like the last mile of delivery Okay, the metaverse is going to be the last mile of delivery Facebook may not be the company to profit off of the metaverse development because the real holy grail is You know complete immersion in virtual reality and we're years away from that to to say the least okay years away from that The Oculus quest to I'm sure there's other VR set headsets out there I know Sony is going to come out with one for the PlayStation apples got one That's probably going to be on the much higher end one maybe three four five thousand dollars coming out sometime this year Maybe late this year But it's going to be a last mile issue where you can get to 96% right you can get to 98% But you got to get to 100% to really be living it you got to get to where you put on a headset You put on a bodysuit and you can't even tell whether you're in reality or in a computer system You get to that point and Zuckerberg knows that he's going to own the universe Okay, but you're gonna have to spend a lot of money. So keep that one in mind now with that in mind The one reason that you maybe want to look at it is because the multiples that it's trading at right now The company is valued at less than 21 times earnings for the next year Not that bad when you talk about these tech companies, especially a company like Facebook that definitely has room to grow We see how Google is doing with their advertising numbers the entire NASDAQ 100 is trading at 26 times earnings This is because of the reasons I'm talking about folks number one. They have a lot of PR problems with their main business. Okay, they They may have some regulation coming down the line. They're in the sights of regulators on both sides of the aisle But they're going to be spending a lot of money that's going to eat those earnings All right, $10 billion of earnings is going to go bye-bye in 2021 That's going to be dumped into investment in the metaverse But you're only talking about a company that you're paying 21 times earnings Not that bad when you think about where you're paying for some of the other companies out there and we jump to it Facebook shares you're only up 1.2 percent. They give most of it back. You were up to 332 Facebook Just gave about 10 bucks so much for that. Let's see how Amazon's trading They are out with their numbers on Thursday a little bit of a give back as well We jump over to Apple shares up about three tenths percent We jumped the Microsoft shares this morning up about three quarters percent at 311 and let's jump over to Tesla shares as well Actually negative right now down eight tenths percent for Tesla shares All right jumping around to what else we got going on OPEC OPEC agrees on another gradual oil output hike for March We'll be talking our man Teddy cake stat from 4x dash trading dash unlock.com. That's after the next segment We'll be talking some crude. We'll be talking some 4x numbers The group has struggled to deliver 400,000 barrels per day monthly increases You got crude pushing seven-year highs out there and after a brief meeting the 23 nation coalition rubber stamp the nominal revival of 400,000 barrels a day from March we jump over to crude you're pushing 88 77 We almost made it to 90 bucks so close 89 72 volatility continues you take a look at crude let's put it on a three-year weekly talk about a bull run man crude One of the most remarkable trades from the bottom of the pandemic I got a low of six dollars and fifty cents But I think we're all familiar with the hysteria that ensued in April of 2020 when you actually had crude going to negative What was it negative thirty eight dollars a barrel that one contract closed at and we're going to be pushing 90 dollars by February of 2020 to February 2022 Our man Teddy's been calling for a hundred dollar crude hard to deny That's where the trend is going right now as you're pushing 90 bucks 88 67 the price of crude go contract Up about three dollars goals. You're spending the consolidation folks. We got a bid at about 1770 We're pushing 1805 this morning gold pulls back last week on chairman Powell This morning. We're up about three bucks But I mean look at the last year right since April of last year. Look at this Consolidation gold has been trading between about now we got outliers on both sides folks But you use a little linear regression maybe and find the line that best fits you're talking about a range of about 1770 up to a higher end of about 1850 or so pretty tight range for gold considering what's been going on in this market What's been going on in rates gold sitting at about 1805 we jump over to Bitcoin? That's not a tight range at all Bitcoin 37,870 off the highs of about 69,000. We jump over to Coinbase Pushes 162 last week you're trading at 193 for Coinbase shares so far this morning We jump over to notes and bonds. We get the 10 year sitting at about 1.8 percent right now. We put it on a daily Yeah, and just sitting right near these lows I mean we're a full point off of the lows that we've had but man You're pushing some pretty lofty yields as we're talking about 1.8 percent and Seems like the trend is to higher yields folks to put it lightly 1.78 as I speak right now to be exact 1.78. All right, let's jump around. We also have PayPal disappointing in a big way down 22.3% folks my goodness this company talk about a rise and fall PayPal. Whoops. Come on There we go PayPal shares dive 22% after the company blames inflation per week guidance There's a lot of excuses right now, but the market ain't buying it and even if it is it don't care man lower prices are coming So the company took a measured approach to guidance but expects revenue to accelerate in the second half of the year They're trying to use the Low expectations right Over under under promise over deliver That's what he's trying to say missed user growth targets due in part to 4.5 million illegitimate accounts that join the platform They're dealing with fake accounts on play PayPal now And getting into it reporting 6.9 2 billion in revenue a slight beat Earnings 1 111, but you're talking about guidance folks. We'll get into it a little bit more But you're talking about guidance in a big way point the pullback for this dog But you might be at the level might be a little bit attractive at 135 when you're back to almost 2019 prices Special guests at the end of the show maybe my son market for buying or selling real estate in the Bay Area Including the surrounding St. Petersburg Tampa and Clearwater Markets Tiger real estate LLC is a firm that has extensive experience in the Tampa Bay area Whether you're looking to sell your current property for maximum value or you're in the market for a second home or investment property Tiger realty has the experience across all areas of real estate in the Tampa Bay area to help buyers and sellers make the most informed Decisions across all price levels from the price You should be paying per square foot in certain up-and-coming areas to the type of cash flow investment properties are capable of creating Tiger real estate can help you make the best decision when it comes to all areas of the market before you make one of the Biggest decisions of your financial future call Tiger real estate LLC today at 727-329-8322 Or email us at tiger at tfnn.com that's 727-329-8322 call us today The technology around us is changing every day with so much happening It can seem impossible to keep up with all the information David Whites investment newsletter the technology insider is designed to give you all the information you need to understand the technology That shapes today's markets and tomorrow's future David White has made his living staying on the cutting edge of technology His weekly newsletter will give you specific recommendations for value tech stocks as well as entry prices Target prices and stops to set for each trade Dave delivers his weekly newsletters every Friday with updates throughout the week You can get the technology insider at tfnn.com for only $37 and 50 cents Sign up for David's newsletter the technology insider and get an inside look at everything the technology sector has to offer Try it risk-free today with our 30-day money back guarantee Tfnn educating investors Will the S&P 500 continue to climb for bold trades on US large cap stocks in either direction trade spxl spu u or spxs Directions daily S&P 500 bull and bear leveraged ETFs Direction leveraged ETFs an investor should carefully consider a fund's investment objective risks charges and expenses before investing a funds Prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction shares to obtain a funds prospectus and summary prospectus call 866-476-7523 or visit Direction investments comm a funds prospectus and summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing an investment in the funds is subject to risk Including the possible loss of principal the funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors distributor four-side fund services LLC Don't forget you can listen to tfnn live on your mobile device 24 hours per day Go to tfnn.com and hit watch Tiger TV. That's tfnn.com then hit watch Tiger TV Welcome back folks. I got a chart of crude oil up here crude up 48 pennies trading in 88 68 We make it to a high of 89 72 this morning for light sweet crude almost hitting that $90 mark and then trading is slightly lower But man quite an acceleration. Let's jump over to our man. Teddy keg stat We talked to Teddy every Wednesday folks at 40 past the hour You can reach Teddy every trading day at 4x dash trading dash unlock calm teddy keg stat. Good morning. Good morning, Tommy So I like to kick things off with crude because it seems like every day we talked to you on Wednesdays, man We got new highs and we got a new high today, man of 89 72 I had the headline we talked about earlier OPEC agreeing on another gradual oil output But they almost can't keep up with what they want to in terms of supply. What's your take on this crude market, Teddy? We're gonna keep on climbing, baby Just keep on going higher and higher and higher so and as far as OPEC, you know And they could put they could pump the as much as they wanted to if they really wanted to but they want to make money Why would you try and increase supply at just under a hundred dollar? Barrel oil, you know, especially when it was trading in the 20s just a year and a half ago, you know, so I mean, right? I mean, why would you for sure? There's a reason why monopolies? Yeah are illegal exactly And and you know, it's it's they're illegal in the US. We can't make them illegal across the whole World, but yeah, I mean they basically have a monopoly They all collude together to make sure that they get the best deal they can for their product And yeah, why would you want to flood the market when you're getting 90 bucks? It looks like it's just going straight up from here. I agree man. Sure. Sure Where do you want to kick things off on currency, Teddy? We have some movement this week But what are you looking at at the top of the driving the action in the forex market right now? Well, you know, if you look at what's happened since we talked last The markets are basically even including oil are right basically where they were when we had our conversation last week You know, so we had a breakout of the US dollar on Wednesday and Thursday last week Spike tie on Friday and now we're coming back now Everyone's always always likes to put doom and gloom on the dollar I really would view what's going on right now is a retracement and if you look at both the euro US dollar and the pound US Dollar which are the two biggest weights in the dollar index. They're totally in line with the dollar index right now so you've already had what is it a You're in between the 50% and the point 618 retracement for both the dollar index the euro US dollar and the pound US dollar Also, you have the US dollar yen that has done the same. This is all Happening sign simultaneously today. Okay, and they all topped out or bottomed out versus the dollar on Friday Okay, so the dollar index remember how I've been saying you can't really rely on that You know because of the of all the differences of what's going on the imbalances going on around the different currencies in the short run Right now we have them all working together Okay, this is a short-run thing and I view it only that's why I'm saying don't try and pick a top or a bottom like Okay, I'll tell you what I'm not trying to pick a top and oil anytime soon I wouldn't try and pick a top in the dollar either remember that we're coming off of a higher move high Higher move highs higher move lows are indicative of what a bull trend same as the opposite for bears So all the currencies right now are trending so they're all in a countertrend trade right now Okay, so I'm just trying to be very clear when it comes to no matter which Forex cross You're looking at even the Australian dollar US dollar. They're coming off of a major new move low Okay, so this is an upside correction that's going on. You know, it's not about dollar weakness right now I think it's a lot of profit-taking you got to remember as you push trends Why wouldn't the longer-term traders take some profit? That's how they nibble out and nibble back in You know because they've been in it for the whole time. They're working that trade, you know So I would be very cautious moving forward after today and tomorrow that it's very possible to see reversal in dollar strength come raging back Yeah, I mean I was jumping around to some three-year weekly charts And really you only got to go back about a year or so to see and the trend is pretty intact man I hear you I mean we have some bounces But you put this thing on a weekly going back about a year and I was jumping around whether it was the Euro Whether it was the yen when there's even the pound And yeah, you're seeing action, but basically you're seeing action within the trend Right on that longer-term basis for sure You had mentioned you're not selling on a crude So here's and I know you're looking for higher prices than a hundred bucks, but let's say you have been long crude as investors I'm sure we have investors out there that have been long crude What are you gonna start to look at because I've started to do this in my head like okay? I think you've been calling a hundred bucks We got to go back to the to the tape man and find when the first time you put out that hundred buck mark because it was a January I think it was January every year ago was around then little it was run to you man Heck of a call and it's still going So let's say we make it to a hundred bucks. What do you start looking at? And I know you've said previously if people listening that you're looking for much higher prices than that But what do you start to look at in that market Teddy as we get to a hundred bucks that maybe like you're talking about people nibbling in the Forex market to people start nibbling and maybe selling up there Or what are you looking as we maybe approach those levels that seem I don't want to call them inevitable because we know how the market goes But that is where the trend is going right now for sure. Sure. That's you know, that's a fantastic question Now when it comes to the oil, I think definitely once we approach this 95 to 105 area We're hitting that threshold. I mean remember that oil has been up at 150 a barrel before Okay, and you think about the price of gas when it was there Especially in a state like Illinois. We have higher taxes on our gas than we did 20 years ago Okay, 15 years ago So just that point alone as gas gets or as oil preaches gets above a hundred dollars and stuff like that that inflationary Price point right there restricts the economy Then you throw in the inflation we already have and how it's going to compound even more and solidify the inflation of goods and Services that this is going to start to really put a lag on the economy You know, I really think the people are going to start tightening up their bootstraps because one the free money is over Time to pay the piper and everything's getting more and more expensive So I think you're gonna see you know how everything's opening up I don't think people are gonna be going out as much as you think, you know I mean it's gonna be very expensive moving forward through the next at least no matter what there's Not gonna be a retraction or any type of deflation for at least six months in the economy Okay, so as we come into summer when you think everyone's gonna break out and go outside I think we're gonna see what we saw during COVID of 20 of 2020 You're gonna see a lot of people having parties in their backyard. They're not gonna be going out to restaurants They're just not, you know, you can't afford it. Yeah, you know I mean it's it's it's a sticker shock everywhere and it's not gonna get any better anytime soon, you know I'm now here's the thing though. If oil Retraces solidly off of you know, I mean, here's the thing if Biden would reverse January 20th of 2021 This just would change overnight and literally within months The oil factor wouldn't be there anymore because we would see what crude oil trading at 35 40 dollars a barrel It would try if you what what was the if what would happen if if he would overturn everything that he did on January 20th of 2020, you know the mandates against the oil industry You said 2021 I suppose 2021 is yeah, I'm sorry 2021 So okay unless that happens which that would retract oil, but that's not gonna happen So unless we become a big producer of oil again and start pumping it out there for us You know build up our stocks really quickly and that would retrace things But that's the only factor that would do that, you know So otherwise we're gonna hold when we're at and we'll be at 150 in another year, you know That's not and that would only only be like a 45 to 50 percent appreciation from where we're at now Not as big as what we've seen in the last year, you know We've seen more than a hundred percent price increase in oil, you know, we've seen 300 percent, you know So yeah, just if you look at it, we're actually slowing down, but we're slowing down into a buffer zone It's gonna be really hard on the economy, you know And remember I've been telling you for months I went back in the fall I'm like the major economic numbers are now the numbers to watch on employment, you know I mean CPI PPI these are things that matter. So thanks Teddy man great great segment man. I appreciate it always on Wednesday's folks check out Teddy's website 4x-trading-unlock.com Can't wait to see where we are next Wednesday, Teddy always Quite an eventful Yeah, and still going to 122 there we go folks. 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That's 877-518-9190 This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim For more information just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com Welcome back folks and we got a special guest who do we got? We got our man Tommy O'Brien the Ford Say hi to everybody buddy. He's got his phone folks. He's ready and you check out. He's not going to be happy We're taking his phone. What's your show today, buddy? What's it say? Year of the Tiger folks 2022. It's his birthday. Happy birthday, buddy One year old Tommy O'Brien. So he wanted to say hello to everybody. He's coming making some appearances We're going to get him a show slated For TFNN coming in the year 2029. Maybe we'll get his program up there But he's ready. He's ready for the year of the Tiger. He's ready to be one year old and he wanted to say hello to everybody Huh, buddy? And let me tell you folks nothing like life. Tell him, buddy. Tell him. Yes. Yes Yes, he's excited too. He's excited. Huh. Are you excited for your birthday? He's even got a little tiger pacifier folks. Can't beat it. Happy birthday my man The market folks can't beat the market right now. He's there. S&P's giving it back But we're still up by 18 points. You get the NASDAQ 100. What's it up, buddy? It's up 102. You see Google split 20 for one Tommy Get you some Google shares. Maybe the 150 bucks a pop instead of 3000. We're trading at 29 77 Google's still up 8% right now. We jump over to Facebook. How's meta doing Tommy? You're going to be living in that virtual reality world when you're can you imagine folks? Can you imagine? This is what I try and do. Can you imagine what kids these days? Can you imagine what the world's going to be like when he's just my age? 41 years old What's it going to be like? I mean there's going to be flying cars We probably will have virtual reality. We're in suits It's almost impossible to imagine what the world is going to be like at that time But it's coming. It's coming in a big way. One year old the year that's hired gotta love that outfit Look at those chunky thighs. Oh, yes. Tell him buddy. Tell him. He's excited too. He's excited He's a dancing man, huh? Tell him he wants to do everything buddy. He wants to play with the mouse He wants to play with the keyboard, huh? He's got it all. He's quite a smart little man And we love him so much. What do you do? All right folks stay tuned. Thanks so much for tuning in. We got our man Basil Chapman coming up next With the Tiger Technician Zara. Is Basil coming up next? He is. Are you playing peek-a-boo? He loves peek-a-boo. Where'd he go? Tommy, there he is. You say goodbye to everybody. Can we wave bye? Say bye Say bye. Say bye everybody. Great Wednesday