 Good afternoon and thank you everyone for joining the SOAS webinar series. I'm sorry but my video isn't quite working. I think there's something wrong with the settings, so hopefully that's okay. I hope you're all able to safely enjoy the weather. This series is a joint series organised by SOAS Economics Department and the Open Economics Forum. Today we are joined by Arjun Chan who I'm sure needs no introduction. His topic today is how to build a new society after the COVID-19 crisis. But before we begin, can I please mention that you can follow us on Facebook and Twitter. I have put the links in the chat. So that's Facebook, SOAS Economics and Open Economics Forum, same for Twitter. And you can also check out our previous events. They are all recorded in the link in the chat. You can also tweet about the event using hashtag economics of COVID. And for the structure of the talk, Arjun will be talking for around 30 minutes after which we'll have another half an hour of a Q&A session. We will be collecting questions throughout the talk. So if you do have questions please just post them in the chat and we will collate them and then once the talk is done during the Q&A session we will start asking them as well. Unless there are anything else, I think Arjun Chan, if you're ready you can begin. Hi, thank you. I'm really grateful for you guys to come to listen to me on this very nice day when you could be spending time outside. We have all been through this pandemic. I mean obviously different people have different conditions in terms of living arrangements and so on. So I mean I have been relatively comfortable but it's been a strain for many people. And I think yeah, this is a crisis that is very difficult to come to terms with because it's even like preventing us from doing things that make us human, you know, being with other people, meeting new people, you know. And even just being in a crowd, you know, I grew up in Seoul, South Korea, one of the mega cities of the world and I just sometimes need to be in the crowd and we cannot do that. But apart from these aspects, the devastation that this pandemic has wreaked on the economy is mind-boggling. The IMF earlier in April predicted that the world economy is likely to shrink by 3 percent this year but that even was a huge, hugely optimistic prediction because as the report itself admitted, that projection was based on the assumption that the pandemic is brought under control in the second half of the year and we have no sign of that happening. Probably the world economy will shrink by 5-6 percent this year. Unemployment is soaring. I mean many European countries are kind of governments, they are governments that are being more willing to prop up employment by paying employment subsidies. What is known as job retention scheme in this country? Unemployment is lower but in the United States, of course, official unemployment is like 15-16 percent but if you count the number of people who have become newly unemployed, counted by this that new kind of unemployment insurance claimants, basically American unemployment rate is nearly 30 percent. I mean I cannot go into the numbers but I'm happy to talk about it if you're interested. During the Great Depression, the only other economic crisis comparable in scale to today's one, the highest unemployment rate in the US was in 1933 and it was 25 percent. So we are talking about a huge crisis and this crisis has been in many ways, let's put it this way, let's not pull our punches. It's been all-incompassing because in other crisis usually there's one bit of the economy that goes wrong, I don't know oil price goes up, housing bubble collapses and so on but this time around it's everything, it's about demand, it's about production, it's about the financial market, it's about global supply chain and as a result the kind of changes that we had to make, the kind of policies that governments have introduced to deal with this have been very, very different and comprehensive compared to previous comparable crisis. So let me first talk about a few changes that this crisis has brought about. Now these changes, their consequences and what countries do in order to deal with them will depend on how long this crisis continues and how effective the solution to it are likely to be. These are things that I don't have the expertise to predict, when is the vaccine coming out, are they going to be effective, cure if not the vaccine to deal with this disease and also that they need that they're still going to be another similar outbreak, you know all of these things are beyond my computer so I'm just kind of talking about this, assuming that this crisis will probably last another two, three, maybe five years, of course that a lot of society will try to go back to the pre-pandemic way as much as possible but I think that if we are going to be even if you wanted able to go back to the old ways that it will take a few years. Anyway so first of all that this crisis as I mentioned briefly earlier has affected the way we produce things you know that face-to-face services have been devastated, restaurants, theaters, international tourism, things that require close proximity of the provider and the customer is that they've been hit very very hard and yes different societies are trying to deal with this in different ways, you know you see these other pictures of Asian restaurants that have kind of put the tapes on the tables in restaurants, you know shields and all kinds of things that are being introduced but I think what is clear is that these services will not recover the previous levels anytime soon. This means that I mean of course that there's a general fall in demand so the level of activities in every sector is lower but this means that in relative terms sectors that produce multiple goods are likely to expand partly because it's easier to maintain the level of production in those sectors but also because when people do not spend money on these face-to-face services they will spend money on other things you know there's already signed that demand for electronic goods that is rising so I think there'll be a shift from services to manufacturing and agriculture in the coming years but also within manufacturing there are some sectors where the method of production will have to be changed you know labor-intensive industries in the US, Germany, the processing factories have been sources of the working environment is such that people work in close proximity they have to shout a lot because the environment is noisy and you know these become the hotbed of the spread of infections so you know they'll also need to restructure their production there are concerns that the global value chains that have been built in the last few decades of globalization have become too concentrated so if something goes wrong in one place the whole chain is affected I mean this is in the whole of the earthquakes in Taiwan and Japan affecting some company which supplies I don't know 70 percent of the world the obscure chemical but very valuable chemical used in the manufacture of microchips or mobile phones and so on so that you know it was already happening but now a lot of people are saying that wow we need to do something about it I think it's a fantasy as some people discuss that to reassure or bring back home but the bulk of manufacturing that have migrated to China and other developing countries I mean just cannot be done but you know I think that people are already thinking about ways to diversify the sources of procurement and production so that you know one part of the system goes wrong the other part is that able to cope also another important change that has been that some of the kind of key tenets of neoliberalism have been undermined by this crisis you know first of all this view that the less state there is the better it is has been totally exposed as countries that have had their government intervening early to test trace and isolate the infected people such as South Korea, New Zealand, Denmark, Vietnam they have minimized the spread of disease you know in Vietnam officially the death toll for COVID-19 is zero I mean even if you don't believe that particular number is very very low in contrast the UK, the US, Brazil countries that have refused to take quick public action trying to believe that the greater economic freedom that there is the better it is they have had to you know go into severe lockdown despite that have produced a huge number of infected people and death you know I mean when these numbers keep climbing they just have become statistics but I just don't understand how in the UK in the US in Brazil people think it is okay to have hundreds of people die every day if not thousands you know I said the death toll was zero in Vietnam in South Korea is that despite it being one of the countries that got it the earliest the death toll is still below 300 you know in the UK that even now I mean there are days when that number of people die in a day you know so that it has exposed the total failure of this less effort approach when it comes to issues like this also what countries have done to deal with this crisis in the at least short to medium term but if not in the long term have basically totally destroyed this neoliberal article of faith that the best thing that the government can do is to provide law and order and invest in the social infrastructure and maybe a bit of basic education you know now the UK government is that through this follow scheme paying 80% of salaries of billions of workers although this is supposed to wind down over time you know the German government that government which is so famous for physical conservatism basically abolished this law that put the ceiling on public debt because that the German government realized that they just cannot manage this in compliance of that law you know the many governments are you know subsidizing and lending at the subsidized interest rate many many companies some governments are talking about that issue in government bond with negative interest rate you know every convention wisdom in the neoliberal playbook has been that destroyed thirdly and that probably a bit more even more importantly this crisis has made us think what is that really important you know in the neoliberal system of thinking there is I mean that question doesn't even exist you know because in that system of thinking some things value is basically determined by the market I mean this has been one of the key deep market economy they have argued that there is no ethical system that can tell you what is more important what is less important you know all these ideas about you know the productive and unproductive labor that the classical and the Marxist economies that struggle with you know these are all nonsense is if someone is that valuable the market will make sure that that person gets paid better and when progressive but economists that try to argue that there are some services that are essential that are part of human rights you know market economists are poof poof the idea but now I mean that the UK government is talking about key workers you know the American government is talking about essential employees and most of them are people who in the market paradigm were not very valuable people because these were people like medical doctors at the exception here but you know nurses you know care home workers you know people working in supermarkets delivery people you know people who have worked at low wages and they will acquire the logical market economics that who are not very valuable for society but now we realize that without these people the society cannot be sustained we have also realized more broadly the importance of care work you know and the unpaid care work and childcare household management mostly done by women these have been I mean literally valued at zero because that is not marketed now we realize that without these that care economy and reproductive sector however you may call it it society cannot even exist you know and finally I think that this crisis has made us realize that like this basically has told us that unless everyone is safe no one is safe you know I mean in the US for example because it has very weak welfare state and weak labor rights you know a lot of workers basically couldn't take a sick leave if they were ill because if they don't work they don't get paid you know and then these people had to go out and make a thing and then they were contributing to the spread of the disease and when something like this happens there is not like I don't know some fancy cancer drug which are very expensive and only which people can buy and perhaps survive the cancer everyone else dies I mean this kind of less 80 90 percent of the population is vaccinated you cannot even if you are most powerful the richest people you cannot avoid this thing and I think that also taking the collective action to slow down the spread of disease which has made very important differences and also in the process realizing that if we all kind of reduce our activities you know cities like New Delhi that which have never seen really clear sky for many years that can have the blue sky you know that all of these have also made people realize that we should and could do a lot more to fight climate change I think that they're having these big shifts the necessary reassessment of the production system undermining of neoliberal making people really think that these are more important in our life and the realization that we are all bound in a common destiny I mean these things are going to fundamentally influence the way that we design new society after this crisis also at the I'll be brief on this aspect at the global level I think this has been quite an interesting experience because you know when you when you look at how different you see that actually for once that there's no clear relationship between our country's level of income and how they have managed this you know I just told you about Vietnam you know I mean country whose pocket income is like not even 5 percent that of the United States I mean has completely controlled the disease and and the US the UK countries that used to lecture other countries on how to run their society what kind of values they should uphold how to manage the government I mean they have been shown to be in complete disarray I think that this that that will be an opportunity where actually a lot of developing country people overcome this inferiority complex that imperialism colonialism and racism have ingrained in many people's mind over the last few centuries you know so-called superior societies have seen tens of thousands of deaths you know Vietnam, Kerala, India, Ethiopia I mean countries that was very very poor or other societies they have managed to contain this disease you know this is that that going to change the way developing a few people perceive the so-called advanced country what are so advanced about them you know when they are willing to you know let tens of thousands of people die so that I don't know the pops that can make more money you know anyway so how do we rebuild the society I mean I have a lot of answers well my answers that that that that question have already been contained in my analysis of the crisis itself but first of all I see all about a common destiny and there's a much more kind of demand for much greater demand for more solidaristic way of managing just I mean partly coincidentally that we've also seen the rise of anti-racist movement in the US and around the world so I think that we should use this as an occasion so establishing in countries that don't have it but also strengthening the universal welfare state that we have in some countries using this as an occasion to push further for climate change actions using this as an occasion to you know push back this reactionary racist forces I think that that kind of sorry those kind of things that are now in many people's mind I mean perhaps a lot of people those are yeah ideally the things that we want to have but we cannot but now we know that we can and indeed if you look at different countries countries that have taken a more solidaristic approach to this pandemic otherwise that have done better and then that we will need to rethink our priorities I mean not just at the individual level but at the social level you know in Britain we had this weird Thursday evenings for a while when we clap for the NHS workers while the government was not willing to pay even a single more penny to them that kind of thing has to change I mean we need to have the confidence to say that yes there are things that are more fundamental that are more important that are not necessarily going to be rewarded by the market and if the market wouldn't really the society has to find a way to make the people working in those things that are more rewarded you know including the people who do unpaid care work at home we need to rethink the work-life balance that we have started to kind of rethink as an experience of the kind of long periods of working from home for many people and having seen the pandemic which a lot of scientists say is in a way an inevitable consequence of human encroachment in nature we need to rethink our balance with nature which is that you know basically that due to unequal nature many of our societies you know I mean there are a lot of countries where you have these farmers doing you know slash and burn and kind of encroaching into nature when there are a lot of lands that are owned by landlords so we need to rethink all these priorities finally we will have to you know rethink the production system the global supply chain partly because of this pandemic but you know no one thinks that this will be the only disease that is going to hit human society a lot of us agree that increasing acceleration of climate change will create many other crises I mean maybe not pandemic but in other forms extreme weather events and so on who knows what other crises are in store so we need to you know rebuild the system to have more if you like resilience and roughness because just think about the airplanes oil tankers you know because they can produce disastrous outcomes if something doesn't work all these systems including that also things like electricity grid they have ways to absorb shock isolated the isolated shocks and quickly bring backups and so on and the economy will also have to be redesigned in that kind of way so to summarize three things one is you know the approach to economy and society including the expansion of the universal welfare state and inclusion of the so-called care economy in our thinking second rethinking our priorities and thirdly restructuring and redesigning the economic system so that it can be more robust and resilient thank you very much I cannot hear you beyond I cannot hear you oh sorry my mic was muted yeah thank you for the talk and that's very very insightful now it's the q&a session so if you have any questions please type them into the chat and we've already collated around 10 questions as well so we'll start asking them just to you for the people who joined midway I will re-link the Facebook and links as well and the past events okay so the first question that we had was from Malik the question was the paradigm shift is globally expected post-covid 19 economic and social crisis how do you think the community will likely tackle the generic societal issues and do you expect universal standards of international humanitarian laws to be likely revisited wow um this is that a bit beyond me uh yeah but I think now we know that the whole community is bound in common destiny I mean it always has been but you know we now feel it more accurately and there'll be demands for kind of greater respect even for marginalized groups and so on and yeah that will create further pressure towards kind of more emphasis on universal human rights and so on however whether that actually gets translated into laws and international conventions and so on I mean it's going to be a long struggle but you know I mean to be a bit kind of forthright you know I believe that in the long run humanitarian progress is we have seen many setbacks recently you know the Trump, Bolsonaro, Brexit what have you but you know 200 years ago a lot of people especially in the Americas thought it was perfectly okay to buy and sell people you know 100 years ago Britain and many other countries put women in prison for asking for vote you know only 78 years ago you know the founding fathers of today's developing nations you know and Krumah, Kenyatta I mean these people all hunted down by the British and the French as the terrorists you know 40 years ago Margaret Thatcher famously said that anyone who thinks that there'll be a black majority rule in South Africa ever is living in a cloud cuckoo land you know but not by law but because people organized and fought for them and I think that in the long run this crisis might be an occasion for those movements to be more like galvanized and become more international and so on and have a greater chance of success I think I leave it at that I'm not an expert in this issue okay the second question was by Eleanor the question is the proliferation of misinformation on global scale is arguably a reflection of widespread mistrust in both national and international institutions and systems what do you think are the longer-term ramifications of the mistrust yeah well this has been the most corrosive consequence of the recent rise of the right the extreme right but you know I think my attitude is that we despite all this mistrust we have to invest in rebuilding trust in these institutions maybe some of the existing institutions have become so discredited they need to be scrapped I'm not against it maybe that some can be redeemed but also we could try to create that kind of global public information service you know I mean something that I mean that sounds overly idealistic but you know something that we need because the best gainers from the erosion of public trust in these public institutions is those who control the media with their money because then that if citizens do not have I don't know whatever that UN information service or some global charity that provides fact checks and so on unless that people have these trust resources you know they'll be able to be whatever that you and those who control the media including things like Facebook and so on through their money will basically be in a position to manipulate them to their benefits so I think that despite people's misgivings about you know building yet another international organization that trying to restore trust in the public institutions that have already been eroded and dilapidated I think that's the only way out because otherwise you know it becomes free for all and free for all basically means for those people with money okay I'm talking about people with money and the inequalities and this is actually a question that I wanted to ask there's a question by Tina question is the pandemic brought to light and exacerbated great structural inequalities in various societies oftentimes it takes a crisis to move and reformers forward what major interventions do you hope to see in the both developed and developing countries yeah no that's a very good yeah I mean the pandemic has revealed that you know poor people people in marginalized communities are more prone to contract the disease and die from it because of you know generally worse health that limited access to healthcare and other things that define this unequal society I think that you know the positive a positive way to respond to this is to accept that then find a way to reduce that inequality and it is already happening in some countries you know I mean I'm not usually a cheerleader for my own country South Korea you know we have so many shameful world record you know the highest suicide rate the lowest fertility rate you know I mean name it but South Korea has that this time around managed the pandemic really well first of all because it that despite this general aversion to the welfare state it has a very robust public health insurance you know so anyone who had that problems could just go and get tested and treated you know this is how that you managed to keep the death toll on the 300 you know but in that country a crucial was forced by this pandemic because you know because it controlled the health situation so well it actually didn't go into full lockdown you know but still people are wary of going out and the biggest suffers from this was these people who are running small bars restaurants karaoke bars people have seen in the famous Korean movie the parasite you know I mean people who tried to eat a living out of a chicken fried chicken joint fail save up a bit more money by working as a substitute drivers and then set up another thing cake shop and then it goes bankrupt again and you end up in semi-basement apartment folding pizza boxes you know so these people were very hard hit and and now the country is actually I was actually quite surprised talking about introducing universal employment insurance scheme so basically it doesn't matter what your job used to be I mean at the moment unless you work for a decent-sized company and have worked for them I forget that the exact time period three months six months you don't get the unemployment insurance now having seen this that problem the country is now talking about introducing an employment insurance that covers people who work in any type of company self-employed people the so-called platform workers you know people working in the economy so yeah I mean if it happens it will be a really progressive change and I think yeah I mean that is up to societies up to especially the citizens to demand these things that to create the systems that will yeah not only enable the country to deal with these kind of crises in the future but also more importantly that become make the society more equal now so that my point is that we have to start the discussion yeah I mean I you know we have to talk about this you know I mean that people have to keep banging on why did you keep all those claps yeah during those eight weeks in the spring to the nurses but then you didn't pay them anymore yeah I mean why is the NHS so kind of dilapidated you know we have to keep pushing for this otherwise that people in power are not going to do that okay um so following on from the um the like the employment scheme that's South Korea is doing so being career myself I was also quite surprised by how well South Korea has done and their reactions to it um hopefully I'm pronouncing your name right but a question by your your tisha um is that it has been posted by many countries the universal basic income scheme will be implemented so will it be enough in order to regain the economic damages that have been suffered uh well universal basic income I am not a fan of it the you know first of all a lot depends on how you do it you know do not forget that Milton Friedman and Friedrich von Hayek were supporters of the universal basic income yeah so basically these are people who say yeah give everyone I don't know that nine thousand pounds or whatever and they can do whatever I mean with that money they wouldn't stop to death but everything about that is that not the society's problem yeah I mean if it's that kind of universal basic income which is actually the kind of basic income supported by some of the silicon valley billionaires I'm 200 against it if it is uh the uh more progressive for my still have a problem because you know having income is one thing but also that you need the affordable high quality services yeah I mean unfortunately the supporters of the universal basic income do not address this aspect that uh very clearly you know okay so that you you convert all the say welfare entitlement you know that you get they in uh briefed yeah so the notional entitlement to your NHS service you know notional entitlement to your unemployment benefit you know the amount of child housing benefit convert them only to cash and give it to you and then how are people going to buy this I mean it's the government then going to wash off his hands and say now you can go into the private market and buy it I think that it'll be a disaster because that that many of these services are basically provided by the government which is not seeking profit I mean of course a lot of it has that become privatized by stealth but at least in theory you know these are the NHS and other bodies that provide these social services they are not how to make money and also that they pool the customers and can get the big discounts that there's a scale economy provision so instead of single hospitals going to a pharmaceutical company saying we want to buy diabetes drugs for 5 000 people the NHS can go to these companies and say we want diabetes diabetes drugs for 17 million people I mean the count kind of discount that you get I mean it's that uh in totally different planet you know so that the unless that you preserve this public provision these services are going to be very expensive actually even when you give them the same amount of money they will be able to buy less and this is what's happening in the US I mean the US spends 17% of GDP on healthcare compared to 8 12% in other advanced countries and it has the worst worst health record in the rich world I mean part of it is of course because of greater inequality but a lot of it is because you know the treatments are expensive I mean that COVID-19 test which you can get for free in South Korea in some American communities you have had to pay $3 000 to get the test so I don't know I mean I cannot go into that any more detail but when it comes to basic income please do not just look at the demand side but also look at the supply side I mean okay that whatever amount of income they're going to give you but then how are they going to provide those basic social services some proposals are progressive but some are not some haven't even thought about this so you need to look at the both aspects okay thank you so the next question was by Cassie I'm sorry that skips it the question is do you think that this is an opportunity for society to change the way it operates if so how if not do you think that oh so if not who do you think are going to be the main losers what type of companies might we see disappear yeah I've already kind of indirectly answered many of these questions by Cassie thank you for your question Cassie yes I think you know opportunity is literally what it is called an opportunity even if that is an opportunity if you don't make something out of it is not going to produce anything by itself yeah so I think that it's very important for citizens to demand organize talk about it yeah I mean how we want to change the society you know having seen that actually we don't all need to be in the office to be to become efficient workers can we change the way we organize work you know that can we work more often from home if not completely I mean can we in that way reduce the greenhouse gas because a lot of these things that need to be discussed but as I say I mean unless we make demands that voice our concerns it's not going to happen now in terms of different industries yes I mean the biggest losers will be that involved face-to-face services yeah so this will be a huge problem for many developing countries especially because a lot of developing countries rely heavily on tourism now that's going to be dead for a few years also in developing countries we have this that huge informal sector menu which involve face-to-face services so when these people do not have customers how are they going to cope so in terms of the industry mix I think it will depend on the country but broadly speaking this will negatively affect poor developing countries with big service sector especially informal sector and countries like the US and the UK which rely a lot on services and countries that have greater strength in manufacturing and the material production are going to be relatively better off so that's my prediction okay I think we've got time for maybe three or four more questions so I want to skip to one of them by Simon so Simon's question is you mentioned that this crisis have revealed the shortcomings of market fundamentalism and that the state is not going to increase increasing intervene in and steer markets in the future his question is do you think MMT or Keynesian economic policies will dominate in the post-corona years to come? Well I'm not on macroeconomics but yes I mean those kind of macroeconomic thinking will become more influential I wouldn't say dominant because you know the current macroeconomic approach a weird mixture of you know fiscal conservatism and monetary abandon you know it is that dominant because it serves the powerful interest so I don't know whether you know the rise of Keynesianism modern monetary theory which is that that certain will be sufficient to replace the existing orthodoxy but not just in terms of macroeconomic policy I mentioned that is going to see change I mean we are going to see big changes in the way that in the way that we manage the welfare state which is implications for taxation policies we are going to see big changes in the structure of production which will have ramifications for industrial policy and trade policy so yeah either be in all kinds of areas and hopefully I mean it will also spill into our approach to fighting climate change so you know that is not going to be just a macroeconomic area that the conventional wisdom and prevailing orthodoxy are being hit as across all areas you know reflecting partly the old encompassing nature of this crisis so I would say that there will be significant changes but once again I mean that whether uneconomic theory becomes dominant or at least widely accepted is in big part a political question so a lot will depend on how things unfold and how the political elite respond to this. I think Hansel had a very similar question as well because her question was about how do you think the capitalism might change in the future and how people might react to capitalism well yeah I think it's not how it will change but how we have to change it you know because I mean given the existing distribution of wealth income and power unless ordinary citizens that progressive people get organized and push the government they are not going to change that things automatically we've seen that after the 2008 financial crisis so for about like nine months they embraced the canes and then the bailed out banks and so on and they were going to reform the financial system you know after two years that was more or less back to the old game and then things got even worse because in some countries like the US and the UK the right wing governments were elected and then they you know in the US basically Donald Trump invalidated many of the reforms that were introduced to the financial market of the Obama after the crisis so you know if we just don't keep fighting I mean it's not going to change so yes I mean there are new opportunities you know new solidarities emerging new ways of thinking but you know how they all will gel together and that translated to collective action public policies institutional changes that's you know I mean in a way that are up to us everyone yeah okay I think uh the last two questions I think I'm going to put it together and it's by Murray and Francis so Murray's question was you've spoken about the vulnerabilities and change of global value chains do you think we will see a shift in mainstream theory and practice from a global free trade and Francis's question was again on developing countries being locked into a primary commodity trap for a long time and how do you think the pandemic will offer whether a way out or a slightly different change yeah yeah well let's start with the primary commodity yes of course a lot of developing countries are dependent on primary commodities and especially those that are dependent on oil have been devastated because oil demand has collapsed as a result of pandemic yes I mean that that kind of episode shows that how it is important for developing countries to diversify well I mean to reason with point that production structure to avoid this kind of easier said than done I mean Ecuador under Rafael Korea tried for about 10 years to shift the production structure the pool of the oil was so strong and by the end of his term it that was a bit lower but the dependence was still very high now in the next few years because of the pandemic you know primary commodities being material products might actually become more important in relative terms as I keep saying the overall level of demand will be lower so I'm not saying that countries that produce manufacturing or the primary commodity will be able to sell more in general but you know in relative terms at least primary commodities are going to fare better than the services now the point once again is that that is service going to be a short relief I mean what happens in the long run will really depend on what you do with the income that you earn from primary commodity and yeah luckily a lot of countries have been thinking about industrializing using more active industrial policy and so on so something might that happen in some countries and yeah some countries already doing some very impressive things you know Ethiopia has that converted a lot of its government making facilities basically investments from East Asia South Korea China Taiwan into factories are producing personal protection equipment for the medical staff you know it has converted this passenger jet that planes into cargo planes and is doing more cargo business so yeah I mean even relatively poor country can that make this as an opportunity to upgrade this economy so yeah I just hope that countries okay I know that the current situation is so difficult I mean it's difficult to think about the future but you know they really need to think about what they can do you know if you have been reliant on tourism heavily I mean okay I mean if you're Caribbean island state there might be very little that you can do but if you are some country you know then that you will have to a think about ways to make tourism safer in whatever way but be more importantly you need to find a way to get out of tourism and start doing something else not finally linking that into the reorganization global value chain uh yeah I think there is a widespread recognition that this requires that reorganization of global value chains but you know first of all in many cases unless this crisis really persists for three four five years I mean as soon as things become okay people will just say well let's forget about that you know because that reorganizing the value chain requires that investment you know hard work let's just go back to the old ways you know so it's not certain that that kind of organization will happen and even if it happens it'll happen only in uh limited areas you know because even if the the US wants to bring all the lost manufacturing production in what it considers key sectors back home they cannot do it you know I mean they don't have the supply network they don't have the correct infrastructure they don't have the the necessary the supply of technicians you know I mean even if it wanted Apple cannot bring factories in China to California to make the mobile phones you know so you know that there'll be only a limited degree of reorganization but yes I mean in the long run that the countries and industries that do it you know more the sustainable way making the network more robust more dispersed yeah more resilient will reap the benefit but let's not underestimate the kind of the seduction of immediate gains you know so I think that despite all this whole of the loot the final reorganization will be rather limited I'm not saying they shouldn't be done but my guess is they will be done in a limited way because every time there's some disaster when there was the famous Fukushima you know the earthquake the the problem with the nuclear reactor you know there were some sectors that so basically the end of the supply for raw materials that sort of intermediate materials because there was one Japanese company that was supplying 70% of the world that that kind of thing every time that happens like the earthquake in Taiwan several years before everyone says oh yeah we have to change the supply chain that make it less concentrated you know less complicated and then you know two years later we are back to square one so I'm not to show how much change will happen to the global value chains but yes I think the taste for a global free trade be diminished somewhat but you know I think on that we should really change the conversation because that you know that we especially those who are concerned with the fate of developing countries like the people that saw us we need to talk about the the you know the international trade you know completely different way I mean it's not just a simple dichotomous problem of free trade versus protectionism you know there are many different ways of organizing international trade you know there are many ways of regulating trade protectionism is only one way you know we do it with foreign direct investment we do it with the government procurement programs we do it with that in the case of the US defense policies so you know we need to change the conversation in a more nuanced way but I do not have time to talk about that at this point thank you I cannot hear you oh sorry I think that's the end thank you for the talk so that concludes the Q&A and the talk just before we go I know we overran by quite a bit but if you are to summarize your talk about what covid is going to be like after sorry what the economy is going to be like after covid in maybe 30 seconds and how would you do it oh no we have to work to make it what we want I mean that is not going to automatically happen but yeah in an ideal world we want greater social protection greater recognition of the importance of the care economy restructuring of our production and supply networks into something more dispersed resilient and robust but you know whether these things are necessarily going to happen I mean this is my wish list but it's said that often all of us everyone to demand another world then fight for it okay really thank you very much and before we leave I would like to just do one last advertising of our Facebook and Twitter I've just posted in the chat and also the webinar series will carry on so there is one next week on Monday that's by our very own soas and people by Bassani Balioi and Gillard Isaac and that's going to be on the perspectives of covid from South Africa's view and thank you all very much and thank you to Hajin Chang for doing the talk and thank you for soas and the opening remarks for and for organizing this as well thank you thank you