 Okay, welcome everybody to the weekly charting analysis webinar with myself, Jasper Allert. Got the risk warning on the screen in front of us. We're just going to zoom through that and get on with the webinar. Now, any questions at all? Feel free to fire them at me. I'm happy to make this interactive. No particular questions. Sit back and enjoy. There's a fair bit going on. We've got a complete route in commodity prices taking place at the moment. That's impacting equities. We're generally sort of lower in stock markets. They're not too heavily. Now, for those who haven't attended before, this webinar is fairly charting orientated. I tend to have my view set up with the multiple instruments so I can see how they all tie in together. Then I'll pull up the charts just using this feature from the watch list where you say chart saved. Every time you alter this chart, close it down. It'll be ready again for next time. That's just an alternative way of doing it from having multiple charts in the layout. Now, as I mentioned, commodities definitely volatile today. The oil price is particularly crazy. They were down about 2% now up in the region of 2.5%. We've seen a massive reversal. Let's dig straight into that while we're at it. You can see here that this is a four hour chart that's pulled up for Brent. We're in a downtrend. We had a consolidation. We had this potential rising trend line here, which I had drawn through here. Honestly, in the expectation of a down break, that would be my assumption based on this pattern. Not really a bottoming pattern, more of a continuation, but perhaps did spread on a bit too long for it to be a decent triangle breakout. We had a false break to the top side here. Went down. Perfectly tested this rising trend line and now we're seeing quite a massive breakout. We're moving right back into this sort of 45 type vicinity on our cash contract for Brent. Difficult slightly from the front month futures contract as a by the by. It's just adjusted for interest rates slightly. Now, if you're wondering what that big chunky line going through around the 45 region is, it is that low on the cash contract from back in January. This whole consolidation area in January has played its role into why these consolidation areas were taking place. Obviously, this breakout that we're seeing today does come just ahead of the August 24th lows. I should mention it. It is tricky sometimes when you're charting on the futures contracts via the cash products because you'll notice that if you flip over to the January contract, you look at the chart for that with Brent, then you'll see that actually we've gone through the August 24th lows already and actually the way that chart looks like is this consolidation is taking place almost kind of down here. Nonetheless, you can see that this actually is holding pretty well as support. There's cash contracts and we're breaking through this resistance area. Now, if we get a close, to my mind, if we get a close above this kind of area, which you can see better on this four-hour chart, that opens up this potential as a decent bottoming pattern. The logical place would be this collection of lows, which actually maybe you can see better on the daily chart, which I've kind of put the extreme low as here. This is essentially the 15th of September and the October 27th lows, but it's more like a region. It's more like a zone as it often is when it comes to support and resistance. I think into there, we may start to struggle again and the bounce may get capped, but I think judging on this, we can close above the levels that I mentioned. There's sort of 44, 30 type of tendency, then I think we're in for a rebound, a larger rebound obviously. Now, why is this all taking place? Well, obviously, we had the euro weakness put out by Mario Draghi and his speech on Friday basically saying something along the lines of what he said last time when he said they'll do what it takes. Do what it takes last time was meant to rescue the euro as it was diving this time. Let's do what they'll do as much as they need to do or something along those lines to fight inflation, which generally means easier monetary policy and so actually a lower euro. So the euro got pummeled on Friday. That allows us some dollar strength. We also got on Friday, which was not fully priced in and has to some extent being priced in this morning, is that the Federal Reserve announced a sort of unexpected meeting for today. So they're not going to be changing the benchmark interest rates today, but they are going to be reviewing the discount and forward rates. So basically, they are reviewing some of their interest rates. So obviously, the natural conclusion would be if they hike some of their other rates that they influence, good chance that they're going to follow through and hike rates in December as well. Markets pricing, if you look at Fed funds futures, about a 70% chance of the Fed raising in December. I think were they to change these internal rates today, then I think that's probably going to increase a substantial amount more to the 80-plus region and make it December in almost certainty. Obviously, it depends a lot on the economic data. One thing will be at growth. We've got US GDP. It's the second iteration of third quarter GDP being reported tomorrow. And it's looking like a bit of a gangluster. It was 1.5% quarter on quarter. Now it's looking like 2%, which is pretty huge. You compare that to the UK, which was the fastest growing economy in the G7, growing at a slightly paltry 0.5%. The latest second iteration of the UK GDP is expected on Friday. So we've had a look at all prices here. I mean, basically the reason I mentioned all that, a bit more of a currency story, if anything, but it's that dollar strength that has been hurting commodities. Now we're getting a bit of a rebound here. From the best I can tell, it's more of a short squeeze off these lows. Obviously, if we look at WTI, the West Texas, Google West Texas as we trade it, it's basically looking like a false break below 40. So if I zoom in here tomorrow like a fire chart, and I've highlighted this triangle on Friday, we've got the breakdown pushed below 40, but then came into this, what I'd highlighted here is the kind of breakout zone that took place in August that it found some sort of support in that kind of region. And again, if it closes as it is, looking like a pretty solid reversal, which I think could catapult price is a good amount higher. Similar sort of resistance though, to bear in mind. The first one would just be from the low in October, but then you'd also start to look at the lows from back in August, which again is more like a sort of zone, but in this sort of vicinity I would think from these sort of 42.5 to 43 area could be tricky, which is just above this peak here. So it jumped straight into oil, just because that was one of the fastest moving markets today. But worth, I suppose, looking at women's will just get going with quantities. Similar story with copper, it's hit, I hope a few of you are able to watch my weekly snapshot video from a couple of weeks ago, I think it was, when I highlighted this triangle pattern here and we're getting a breakout. And it's not normal that you'd get to say pattern working out this easily, where it's literally declined every single day, I think maybe we've got a small day of green right there on Thursday, but literally just tanked having broken from that triangle. So that's kind of a nice trade when it's lost, it's going to have lost two and a half handles, close to three handles from the breakout without even any sort of chance of moving back above the 10-9, having you all worried just tanked almost straight to the objective. And I had mentioned when I first, yeah, so back on the 17th, plunging towards 200, 210 offered some minimal support, but barely. It's kind of what the point is, it's hit the round number of 200. So admittedly the target's 197, but I think at this point when it's sort of falling off a cliff and a down move like that, it'd be pretty comfortable taking profit to anyone who was short from the breakout area in the 200 vicinity, because as a risk it just doesn't quite make that next two and a half points. But with all these qualities, it's as well-known factors, it's just that supply is outstripping demand, we've got China slowing down, economic data in China looking generally pretty weak, even the government have lowered their forecast quite substantially and many believe their actual GDP stats are a little dubious as well, probably a bit inflated, so China's economy is slowing. And then on the supply side we heard from Antifogasta and some of the other large Chilean producers that they're favoring cost cuts in the company rather than cutting back output. So again they're putting out supply, but there's not quite enough demand for it. So that's the downward pressure on prices. Technically of course we're massively oversold now in coppers, we pull out to a weekly chart, you could see we're in the oversold territory, which was last time produced at least a bit of a bounce, not much. But how many times can we get into oversold? Every time we're somewhat recovering from an oversold territory we get a modest bounce. It's a downtrend, so generally in these kind of oversold scenarios what you look towards is more sort of taking profits off the table rather than going along. You can go along in the short term, if you sort of look at this long term oversold condition on a weekly chart you can then obviously dive down to your four hourly and your hourly charts and think well actually maybe I can start looking for some breakouts higher because I'm expecting this oversold condition to play out. But just with the same sort of objectives you typically have on a four hourly or hourly chart rather than the sort of weekly chart and your expecting prices to get all the way back to the top of the pattern, it's a bit early for that. So gold and silver have both hit fresh multiyear lows recently. Gold we can see I think it was on Friday that it hit the five year low. And so we're getting a bit of a reaction off there. We've dropped down in the last couple of days since. Since here we've got basically a dip to the new five year low and then a sort of fake out basically, a fake false break lower, a push higher, but then that hasn't really gone anywhere. We're back down here again. So we'll have to see what happens on this next attempt to push lower. Successfully we'll see in the downtrend territory again another false break eyes up the possibility of a slightly more bigger chance of a push higher. To me in general though this sort of expanding microphone type pattern is more conducive to a push lower when it's at the bottom of the market. If it was at the top of the market you're kind of basically treating it as a bit of a continuation pattern. Silver for those interested. Here's the weekly chart and you can see this downsloping trend line working out pretty nicely at this point. And you can't see it too clearly on the weekly chart, but if you dip down to the day chart you can see that there was that last six year low made in August and here again today we've dipped through it. But look how sharply we've dropped. Obviously we've been in this oversold territory from up here, so anyone buy you know it's just a great example of, let's just look at that for a second. Sometimes almost good to sort of almost like print a chart like this just to tell yourself don't buy just because it's oversold when it's a downtrend. You just looked at that long term declining trend line with below the 200 day moving average. Anyone buying into this oversold region has been absolutely hammered because yes we're oversold but that tends to be what happens in a downtrend. We remain oversold for a long period of time. After being this stretched to the downside, once we get out of oversold territory again there may be a slightly different matter. Again that sort of scenario where you can start looking perhaps for short term breakouts and just be cognizant of the idea that was still in that downtrend but maybe it's momentum's got a bit too stretched to the downside. So some short term opportunities taking advantage of that oversold condition. So I've got a question here on the industry so I'll jump across to that. Question here on Hong Kong. Hong Kong today has been sort of just tracking the mainland a bit lower but not massively or anything still inside Friday's range. You can see here that based on the weekly chart here this is kind of what I think is a level that we're kind of working around at the moment is this October 19th low which did sort of was the week of October 19th. That was kind of what was there before the last leg higher in the Hong Kong 8 shares. So we plopped straight through that down to the 9000 level, came up as resistance down sort of double bottom up to the 200 week down, retesting it again and a decent push higher off it. So what you'd hope for is this rebound to continue but you basically can't know for sure if that's exactly what's going to take place until you break through the peak. To my mind based on this action, yes we're below the 200 week moving average but I would say that you'd probably need a retest somewhere in the region of these highs just to test the strength of the bulls to see if they're able to push through higher. If they're not, bears take over and we're heading lower again. So depending on the technique that you use, I mean a bit of an obvious down slipping trend line here, RSI hovering in the 50% so getting to a kind of place where it might be overcoming this little short-term down trend to push off this, that's that line right there. I hope that helps on Hong Kong. So if we took it across to the UK 100, had this little rising trend line, just draw an instance we peaked at it around there, we've actually had a second day since and this is akin to a tweezer top. You've got two highs, not quite at the same point but close and obviously off this broken rising trend line, looks like we could roll off them there. So given that oil prices have stayed to this big turnaround, maybe there's not going to be quite such the worry over quantities for the rest of the session. So perhaps this is just a pause before pushing higher again. We're obviously well below the 200 day moving average on the UK 100 but nonetheless we are forming these higher low, kind of better seen on the weekly chart. So this last week hasn't confirmed as a low yet but given the strength of the reversal, yes it didn't take out the previous week's peaks but that was a massive drop off the previous week and we almost made back all the losses just in the space of one week which is quite impressive especially in the light of, we obviously had the attacks in Paris, we had pretty hawkish Federal Reserve minutes which in previous times might have really rattled markets. They were able to look through that. Obviously we've got more stimulus coming from BCB and the prospect of stronger US growth, those two factors seem to be overwhelming any concerns about higher interest rates in the US particularly given the fact they're probably not going to raise very quickly if we're to believe what the Federal Reserve has to say on it. Let's have a quick look at Germany 30. Now I have highlighted here that we've taken out the high which I think is a positive and we've pushed through the 200 day moving average and we've also put it in this double bottom and retested the neckline and we've got that objective up here at the previous peak so I think probably that does overall the overall scenario. It looks fairly positive for the Germany 30 but I have just highlighted that we've got fairly sort of obvious looking a bit of bearish divergence from the RSI and price here so momentum falling off a bit was price maybe looking a bit overextended having just again done that whole weekly reversal maybe do a pullback from there. Now looking at US markets, SPX was the one I looked at recently but a basic pretty similar. The Dow's US 30 slightly higher into these peaks. What we're basically looking at here now is this was a sharp downturn a week before last same as European markets. We've made up a lot of the losses but for the SPX we're in this 2100 vicinity and so it's going to be just a test of these highs again if I jump over to the US there it's even more clear cut. If we can't push through there then what we're looking at is potentially a double top a topping formation, a strong rally a bit of a larger than expected dip failure and then another dip maybe it's just a consolidation and moves higher again or maybe it rolls over. Just kind of these scenarios. We can't know which one of those is going to happen we can obviously make educated guesses but it's good to have a few sort of scenarios in your mind as to what exactly could happen here. I mean as I mentioned surprisingly positive sentiment in markets last week given the backdrop so I think there's probably if you go fundamentally maybe a bias higher but technically we've got to be aware of this risk of a double top here not to mention that the market's just a little bit overbought having just dropped and rallied straight back again. So what we may be in for particularly leading into the December rate decision is another period a bit like this just another sideways consolidation period is what I suspect is probably going to happen maybe a push above these highs maybe run out of steam, roll down sideways is my default assumption. I'm certainly open to the idea that we could push up into new record highs but it's not my default assumption. I think this is kind of a classic solid uptrend obviously this is a classic just boom down trend this to me is more sort of taken out some lows here but then not at this point we could have rolled over and made a new low and that would be more downtrend type territory obviously we haven't done that we've pushed back higher again so now it's basically range bound and we need a close or two above that peak to kind of give us more confidence that we've turned into more of an uptrend. So let's have a quick jump over to current season now so the euro fell to seven month lows last week we're coming off those lows a bit today so obviously today we've even made you seven month lows but again we're kind of coming off them a bit and you can see that it's all a bit dollar related the euro in a way is acting kind of similar to commodities both of which have the dollar as their denominator so clear cut down trend but what I'd look for here is just like we had in this low so just like we had this sort of consolidation here but then eventually we did close below it push below what we're kind of looking for is a similar thing down here and at the moment we're not getting a close below that we need suggesting that we're going to get a little push higher and that tells us a little push higher but then we kind of there's no particularly good trend line here I don't even know I'm drawing this oh that's one I had in mind and then maybe a close through this little trend line here could tell us that actually this very bearish trend has been in place I think the top here was the there must have been the Fed meeting and then I think the jobs report came not long after so then that could suggest that we're getting a little push through but I can't fundamentally really see the justification for that data wise this week we've had PMIs today from Europe which we're actually better than expected partially explaining the kind of positive euro today we've got German Eiffel tomorrow on the dollar side we've got durable goods on Wednesday you know they've been pretty weak recently but we're expecting a bit of a turnaround there so you know turnaround there plus strong growth plus the hawkish Fed and surprise meeting today with potentially rising other rates all pretty bullish dollar stuff so hard to fundamentally justify buying zero but technically you could see why it would be a bit overdone and maybe a little trend break if we get above there pounds getting clobbered today has been for the last couple of days so you can see kind of what's transgressing here is that we were in this basically we're still in this massive consolidation during this period it was kind of more like a kind of rising consolidation now it's become there isn't really a good trend line to draw here but you can see that kind of generally it's it's turned into this where it's more like a declining we're making lower lows but it's still kind of within that broader range and so what we're going to test for here is I think we've taken out this low I think from here naturally we would go to test the lows from November 6th and then that would be the big test as to whether we can substantially get through it you know what's been happening recently is we get a couple of little breaks through the lows and then just round off again and make a slightly lower high so is that what we're going to expect this time potentially I would say there's a good chance of that yes because if you look at this these peaks from back in March they all come in just around the sort of 150 mark which is obviously a big round number that people will be paying attention to and maybe have some big orders resting on coming into the last couple of minutes any questions feel free to fire them through I've got a question on wheat yep I'll be happy to cover that once we've got through the currencies so this is Donnie Yen definitely a tricky one to have been trading recently we had the range we had the breakout but now we're running into potentially a bit of RSI negative RSI bearish tripping over my word here divergence not reversal with RSI it's always a bit tricky always a possibility for tripping over your words because you have the positive and negative reversal in RSI but then you also have the bullish and bearish divergence always a possibility for tripping up on those ones what we're looking up here is the divergence scenario a bearish one where prices made a marginally higher high if we zoom in a bit we can kind of see more precisely what's been going on we can see that there was the peak tiny fake out and then big drop through and then RSI in fact hasn't really reflected that push higher because obviously the RSI probably was higher than that during the period but then by the time the period closes RSI is lower that's kind of why it is and so we've seen a little top and a push through the low here possibly indicating that this low in price is going to take a note too nonetheless that's just something to be savvy to the trend is still higher though just something an extra reason to believe it might be playing out this RSI divergence is this this rising trend line which the price has struggled with every time it's run into it obviously the major thing that would cause the breakout here is if the Bank of Japan were to do more monetary stimulus although there is some talk of more fiscal stimulus which I would say perhaps if they were to do fiscal stimulus tax breaks and rising the minimum wage and things like that have been mentioned if they were to do that sort of suggests an unwillingness to do more monetary easing so I think that could actually be a bit of a catalyst or for yen to strengthen so look out for that if there's more Japan fiscal stimulus yeah so that's about it for the regular session here I'm going to stop the recording and so it will be available to watch later on through the platform I'll put a link up on insights FYI something I didn't mention if you're a big trader of the US stocks you probably might be aware already but it's Thanksgiving on Thursday so US markets are closed on Thursday probably going to mean a fairly quiet session in Europe for trading as well so if you're thinking of taking any day off this week probably Thursday will be the one to do and then on Friday we've got a half day in the US so not going to heavily influence European trading because there will still be something going on in the morning but you've got to imagine there will be a lot of big US investors who are just out of the office and are not making investment decisions so it probably means markets will be quiet even spreading into Europe