 The following is a presentation of TFNN the Tiger Technician Hour with your host Hazel Chapman call now toll-free at 1-877-927-6648 Good, everyone clouds your captain there on this very first day of September the Thursday September action we're looking at the Dow down sharpie but let's just look at the E-mini this is a 10-minute chart can you believe from yesterday last night about 7 o'clock Eastern time the E-mini went into a trading range of about 20 points and that lasted from 7 p.m. Eastern time until about just on 8 o'clock we're popped up over that level went back in and now it's gone below it now the big question for me just purely on a technical basis is we've had not that many long rectangle narrow rectangle basing we've had a lot where it's at the top and the rule of thumb is if we can go just above the rectangle high that horizontal resistance level chaff me inside track repellent zone pop up usually it's in a leg D and then come back and break halfway into the rectangle there's a really good chance you're not only going to go to the lower horizontal line the base of support of the rectangle you're going to take it out we've we saw I had we had a stuff that I was thinking would do the exact same thing on a basing level about a month or so ago and it looked like it would do that and then what it did is it went to a D in the rectangle at the bottom and then plunge and took out the left side low so it was the same technique except at the bottom so are we looking at the same thing here because it's broken that support it's gone down to where 3 17.50 right now the low 3 19.50 this is the ten minute e-mini September e-mini chart we're gonna a couple of weeks after change there to the December so I'm watching this closely the stochastic is at 23 percent the on balance one reverse back down hasn't taken out the low of the day yet but it reversed a low of the ten minute chart but it's pulled back very sharply and the man knees negative and the 9s under the 14 period moving average it means that any time today it's a ten minute chart I know but at any point if there is a I put three ten minute chip bars so over a period of let's say 40 minutes if three of those ten minute bars are able to close above the high so far today 3961 preferably up in the 3968 a while that's 40 points up from here but of course we just came 40 points down that would be a very good sign to say you know what fund managers are starting to look for bargains in September money's come in they've got to put it to work and they're gonna start to buy every bounce at least for a couple of days that's all I'm looking for right now to see what can happen because I can just tell you this based on this ten minute chart if there is a one-to-one to the downside 39.06 would be the downside target I don't think I want to see that right now okay what we're looking at now is let's go back to the markets in terms of the Dow you've got oh I've got the VIX up here let me just talk about the VIX for a moment since yeah you can see it the VIX index is at 26.92 if at any stage between now and Tuesday the VIX trades above 29 as it were 26.92 so 29 is really that would say that the market is down six to eight hundred points the Dow the SMP is probably down a hundred maybe a hundred and ten it could get a lot worse now a lot of people over the news and everything I hear it I'm talking about next week is possibly being just a really ugly ugly week maybe maybe even a crash I let me just now I can get out of the VIX index and go to our charts because this is what I really want to look at I can never dismiss something like a crash because they come out they black swan events they come out usually they come out where either the there's such a heaviness in the market that the build up of negativity is so intense that this becomes a climactic event it becomes such a big event that however low you go it is a low of absolute substance it's a low that sees you turn around very very sharp I don't think we there in the economic cycle so all I can say is that we've got a V shape inverted V shape pattern we've got a left side right side price time that was already just taken out that there's not from the exact high in the Dow that would have been the high of 34,281 on the 16th of August that would have been right down here but you can see that we were a little lopsided already we came down in a much speedier trajectory and therefore you've got it you can't have that plumb line that's used to use that as a plumb line but the reality is that we've actually taken out a very unsupported a very important support level and on a short-term basis yes we are short the Dow via the DOG from the 22nd of right there from that that from the thousand no it wasn't a thousand point that was the August of 22nd that was a sharp pullback and we are still holding the Dow diamonds they're getting real close to being taken out from that low that we we engineered we've been many times with the last one was back and that I can get to it right now that's the best way to do it talk apples to apples the new loan was at 306.98 on the 15th of July we've taken a couple of parts off up at 318 a little higher now what we're looking at is we might be taken out there but we've had for those people who are still long and equal-weighted the short side they just haven't had a big pullback because you haven't made money haven't lost money from when we entered everything but at the same time if it's a fresh position or you went heavier on the DOG side so now you're making money but for people who've just got short report one year newsletter fairly recently then you've only got the short side and that's working and I I have to tell you that the eye I'm looking at the monthly chart because September's just started so August is done that candle chapter we've inverted Roman candle if there is a price point at any moments through September where on a I have to put it it should be on a shorter time frame between about monthly so I should go to weekly but I usually go to a daily and I'm just getting to say on a two-day basis it's actually three days because two out of three days needs to close above 30 33,700 if and if that happens at any point in September that is a great now you can have a very quick run towards the 34,000 level from the 4,281 actually it's a big ask because the monthly chart is now for the first time got the has gone to a pink nine period exponential moving average has gone under the 14 period moving average so the month is almost at a sell signal the week he's in a sell mode and the day he's in a sell mode so I do the levels that you have to watch I have to very close to the next four markets such as this to gold owns and operates the largest undeveloped gold project in Australia the Mount Todd Gold project this to gold just completed their feasibility study resulting in a seven million ounce gold reserve this to gold has all major permits 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is so important this is the semiconductors look at that big move down down 8.64 at 205 a minus 4% and that's because NVIDIA advanced micro devices NVIDIA came out with even worse news and that was the leader now look at the weekly chart the weekly chart went above the channel maybe inside track and down channel resistance went to support level now to way down and the monthly chart looks very poor and I can just go my contention always is that the semiconductors let us up and let us down throughout the last 10, 12, 15 years it just constantly does that it's really been lagging since the high of January of 2020 which was the market top which was the Dow top 318.69 that double top you remember made a high week of January the 7th the 318.69 and the high of the 26th of November was 318.82 missed it by what 20 cent less than 20 cents now what we're looking at is the bottom that we that we saw at 189.94 the 5th of July we're not that far away we're 1916 points and we're moving at 8 points a day or something so this is says to me that in terms of the you know I like to look at tides and sometimes you can get the tides moving high but you can get waves and some of the waves can really be exceptionally high or they just kind of moderate and sometimes you can get that double that double wave and you think that it's even more powerful but what happens is that it kind of negates some of the strength so it looks like it's going to be powerful but then it fades much quicker I like to look at the waves and in terms of visual imaging and what we're looking at right now in terms of waves is that this is building up to a point where the stochastics at 3% the MACD is very weak the the histogram that's the distance between these two lines is moving even sharper to the downside you've got the 9 period way under the 14 period in the daily chart the over the last two weeks you've seen the 9 slip under the 14 period moving up in the weekly so we're in an acceleration phase right now so when people talk about next week as being an ugly week if we close horribly today and then horribly Friday you could have this long weekend and the news will be just unbearable I think yes we could have some major major collapse but to me that doesn't really answer the question have we resolved some of the semiconductor are we even getting to a phase that you can say we've we're now in the position where the semiconductors might be able to make money because they can raise prices but in fact we're starting to see the chips coming online a lot more chips always going to be a dearth of chips and now we're really stuck at the automobile industry look at Ford Ford pulling back from its high that was made just recently and that was a pretty sharp move from around about 10 61 on the 5th of July to the high that was made at 16.26 on the 16th and now we're at 14 on the 200 period moving average so if you look at this and you're looking at let's go to General Motors just put the two together General Motors also made a very sharp move up I went to the 41 area trading now 37 not such a big move down I'm I'm beginning to put the whole picture in place in my mind saying there is a good chance look we've got deflation if you look at the crude crude oil prices crude oil prices have just a dollar sixty down it's 87.91 and look at the weekly chart this is not a very strong weekly chart at all nine period moving under the 14 Magdi very weak stochastic at 15 percent on balance volume kind of okay this just says to me there's a really good chance that crude oil is going to go down if you look at all the commodities look wheat wheat is off its most recent high but it isn't look at that weekly chart more than a one-to-one to the downside at 827 down four today but it was trading in the continuous contract at 14.08 14.09 and a quarter on the continuous contract the week of 11th of March I mean that look at that straight up and now it's taking this time it has come down down down look at soybean so if you try to put this as a package together and say where are we really forget about crashes forget about cycles forget about the moon forget about Chapman wait forget about Fibonacci volume whatever you want just forget about look at the chart the chart says soybeans is in the upper rectangle it has now gone to the top in a peak D it's pulled back in the arch formation and has taken out the halfway marker that says there's a chance that soybean trading down 14 at 14.08 couldn't fact go down to the 1376-1350 level look at corn corn as we say over here corn's holding the other highs it's got the Chapman wave inside track this is the falling exformation with an inside track repellent zone that is just there in the weekly chart and there it is and it hasn't broken out upside it hasn't broken down it's in a peak C in the monthly chart this is the strongest of all those commodities and lo and behold at 867 down just three points today it's trading within you know not too bad from the high that was made up at the four days ago it hit 67 let me just give that exactly 680 683 and a half all right so now it's pulled back just a little bit look at look at sugar sugar is down at the lows it's got this arch formation as well it looks so when i look at the DBA which we have the DBA this is the DBA cultural fund from the 1377 level and it's gone all the way to 23 it's trading right now 20.54 we've taken a little bit off we've actually added to it it's holding okay at the 200 period moving average but it's saying that commodities in fact have had a really big pullback so all those things that Powell's looking at says what are we doing we're looking at interest rates and what is the interest rate doing there's the dreaded H pattern in the weekly chart is trading down at 109 29 down 261 oh i'll have to go to it someone asked me yesterday if i could show it and i said it was a little late because and also i had too many charts i didn't want to add this extra one but look here's the US dollar pulling back but really really need to look at the tnx.x that's the uh yeah we go so this is a potential chaperweight instant reseller should be a friday it's not as a thursday so i don't want to spend too much time but the technique of the chaperweight says at a peak t within three bars you take out the left side high use an alternate count because when you get to g it could be g slash c you could pull back and then go to the d and then you've got to be somewhat careful so yeah we are g slash c and we're low and behold uh whatever they are i missed one this is d so this is f slash b oops i just skipped a stage f slash b and this is a g slash c a big move up going towards the highs oh there's a lot to talk about with yield i think we're getting close to at least some kind of a rebound i'll be back in a minute if you want to take advantage of this sector now is the time to subscribe to my gold report the gold report is a comprehensive look at the metal sector 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nothing's working yeah oh i think there's a lot of buying going on here we are i did change thank you uh thanks for the information the other day i was going to try it and i never had a chance to change the trade station settings um but i i i will i just i i didn't want to mess with anything i'm going to be away next week i don't want to be away and have a whole bunch of things that i have to worry about there's enough always to worry about if if um uh let's see what the energy of electric uh place the utilities companies here does anything or comcast does anything and does all the repair work that they've been doing and i'm away and my computer gets shut down i'm away i use this my desktop here wherever i am in the world i always go this is over 20 years i i've always used uh my pc to be able to get to my work so i can do it every single day no matter where i am but if my computer's down i have to have somebody i haven't had anybody yet but i have to have somebody come in and restart it oh i'm not looking forward to anything like that happening so okay so we're looking at buy i'm i'm sorry taking time at 10th by about 1034 the high of 39 36 should be tested uh what are we at 1030 what are we doing now we're at 1031 so yeah about another six minutes or so and if that's taken out and if there is a move about 3940 uh during my show that would be the first time today that i'm actually seeing what i wanted to see earlier on and that is that this particular narrow rectangle is going to do the exact opposite on the downside what it does on the on the on the upside and this is now a work in progress remember i'm all about techniques that they invent themselves i have no idea did i ever think that a narrow rectangle could produce all the different results we had spectacular results in the i w m you can go on the weekly charts you can just so many areas where we went to that a long rectangle popped up and usually was to a d and then we took out the left side low and went much lower so this is just a work in progress but i have over the last i'd say six to ten months been talking a lot about the narrow rectangle formulation uh that that really is is very important and what i am looking at here is does it work on the opposite side now we've broken the base of this narrow rectangle in the in the 10-minute chart is there a chance that we're going to now not only do you have to take out the highs in this case you're on about the 39 38 area you have to take out the not that peak c failure peak c minus failure that was right there which acted like a d and that was at 39 61 there's just a lot to go on i don't want to get too excited it's the reason why we we did put in a long position to any one of the indices it's just a one-to-one now widen the stop because i figured it'd be very volatile but at the same time on the short side we've got we are short we're short to dow and i don't know i don't think we've been taken out of our diamonds i don't think i don't even want to look right now let's just see yeah maybe we have then we have to restart but it means that if we released a ton of cash that we've got already for anything yeah and in this market you just got it cash is cash is king just like the dollar let's see what the dollar is doing right here so that's the t in x so i i'm still not a hundred percent sure that i want to go to i'll add the x to five the fifth chart uh yeah we got fifth chart coming up what are we looking at we're looking at good luck good luck there we go okay coming up this is the the triple yield chart with the three timeframes the three indices that's the t in x which is the 10 years brown the t y x is the white which is the 30 year t bond yield and the f of v x is the five year cyan colored t note yield please come up oh i can see i made them okay that's all right see this i said there's going to be a cup potential cup and handle not one of my favorite patterns but a cup and handle in the weekly uh triple yield chart and that just suggests that there's a chance that we do test the 34 34.72 remember it's 3.472 yield with that they're type it as the full number 34.72 and it's at 33.96 right now so i it's on one of my favorite patterns if you're trading it it's a great pattern if you get the lows and investors business daily has a whole whole panoply of things that you have to do to get that right but it's not one of my favorite patterns because the cup and handle invariably if it makes a new recovery high it comes right back into the handle the Chapman wave cup and ladle they go straight through the left side high in a leg c sometimes a d and sometimes a b essentially says you know what you can go higher a lot higher but until you make your pd there's a chance that they're 34.55 in this case left side high of the november the second 2018 that that that will be tested but it's different pattern also it's a very positive pattern this one is a little bit more iffy okay so what we're looking at here is that the yields are all rallying but i seem to see a sequence here that tells me that the cyan that the five year is higher than the 10 year and the 10 years higher than the 30 year and that just says you've got your inverted yields go this is this is this is what the Fed gets nervous about but at the same time look what happened to the wood ice is global timber and forest GTF weekly chart look at that reversal down it was going to look like it was holding nice nicely near the rectangle propeller shaft midpoint said it's repelled down look what's happened to the hgx the Philadelphia Housing Index down so okay let's get out of this so i'm suggesting to you that yields are in play and that you've got to you've got to keep that in mind for whatever you training and i think it will definitely hurts the housing sector yes to all let's just get out of that now questions that have come in uh you okay so um yeah so the u up in the den jerry says u up now selling so the down move is fading okay let's just see what the u up is doing but you see the u up has made that leg d that's what we were waiting for now the core is the dollar index we're so long the dollar index so the dollar index i i usually don't base it on the derivative that is the u up which is the power says db us bull we're along from 23 way back in 2020 um and we've only taken two little bits off so this is the same to me yes that's the leg d in the daily leg d in the weekly and leg c is extended it was just a few days it would have made a peak c and this would have been leg d no this is leg c now i can't count it any other way because 2409 is i mean i guess i could i could say f slash enough it's a leg c that means good statistics good i i still think that the dollar isn't playing if the dollar will go to a leg d the dollar itself oh it has leg d in the dollar good now what are we doing i'll be back in a moment we want to take questions you might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market you're going to need a crystal ball after all it's impossible to predict the future right like any endeavor in life before you decide it's impossible get some advice from the experts you might find that it's not so impossible after all for daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices selective stocks and commodities subscribe to the opening call newsletter at tfnn.com the opening call newsletter is written by basil Chapman creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman wave the Chapman wave up-down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns finding the peaks and valleys in stock prices get the opening call newsletter by basil Chapman and your inbox every day first time subscribers also get a 30-day money back guarantee if you're not satisfied let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up tfnn.com educating investors the technology around us is changing every day with so much happening it can seem 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and bear ETFs visit directioninvestments.com slash biotech today an investor should consider the investment objectives risks charges and expenses of the direction shares carefully before investing the prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction shares to obtain a prospectus or summary prospectus please contact direction shares at 866-476-7523 the prospectus or summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing an investment in the funds is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal the funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors distributor foresight fund services LLC this program is brought to you by vista gold traded on the nyse american and tsx under the symbol vgz i don't get uh doing any questions about the chapwave technique in the sense that uh just questions about the technique itself but the criticism one criticism is so the weekly chart is so is the chapwave is fading because the weekly chart is going down i'm not the chart the chart is the chart i'm doing the analysis for the chart look i said this is a peak see in the one minute and that this should be if there's going to be a left side right side price time match we should get to the left side high of uh 10 o'clock this morning of 39 36 uh within i think i said 10 36 10 33 i think i said well it's stalled at 10 at 39 31 at 10 29 try to run it try to run it in the 200 period moving average reverse the price so it didn't make a d is that my fault excuse me is that is that the chapwave fault no i said this is the pattern that we usually look for this is the price the price that we look at we also have a chapwave inside wedge target resistance line if everything works out then that's what we should be getting to the fact that it failed just underneath it is not my fault it's just that this is the analysis is what you expect and if it doesn't work out it doesn't work out i'm not the price so that's the same thing for the weekly chart i've done money management for my subscribers and we've done very very well because even though you get a good example cf industries we're in it at 95 we took lots of little bits off into this chapwave stalk leg formation which then became the one-to-one at the doji high of 119.6 i said oh be careful it could pull back sharply so it's pulling back sharply it's now at 101 18 points that's uh that's about 14 percent decline 15 percent decline and is that my fault no i did the analysis i said doji car be careful and we pull back i mean that's all you can do right um and sometimes you give up some we could have been we could have got out right here but i still think that cf industries hold things hydrogen nitrogen products for clean energy and fertilize the emissions and abatement it's still a good area to be in so i want to keep a core position so it's money management so i'm just trying to point out that don't blame the waveform the way form is doing the best it can and uh but prices prices the aperture of the trend and that's the reason why at this particular point in the down i said uh oh chadwave sign and doji's we've got to be careful it held for two days and then the third day it was negative the next day we went short so this is from 33,000 about almost 600 to where we are now 31,240 so you can't blame a technique if it's working and what's this is a doji candle i say you've got to watch the doji candle the weekly but i love the fact that it was above the chadwave support area which became so resistance area which became support now it's not so you've got to deal with it that's what we've been doing that's what the whole methodology is about is about money management you want to be in the game you want to keep as much of your capital as possible even under very trying conditions okay so the next thing is you're learning a lot about chips what am i learning about chips this is a semiconductor index be negative since the very top the double top of 380 and the double top of 3869 we have not been short i should have been short but i wasn't short but we did play this fantastic move right here in the three times long for really good profits in the sox l and then we got out i yes i should have switched to short no question about it not only that how many times i've been talking about invidia giving a higher double top peak c1 c2 just even on the short term in august so what do i have to learn about chips i've been talking about it i've been told me the one that's talking about where chips go for 15 years at least when wherever they go the market is generally going to follow which is one of the reasons well we've had a very big cash position and yes we do try to get longs and yes they could be in areas even in select areas that are negative you can have some stocks that move up so i'm just saying i what i all right i don't have to discuss it i think i've discussed the chip sector in absolute detail for a very long time and uh now i'm looking at the weekly the monthly charge the weekly charge making the h pattern it's going to be really important over the next uh month september that the low that was made at 189.94 on the 5th of july holes because if it doesn't hold that's that's key to the general market music and have really good rallies and here's another thing how many times have i said this is very unusual for a peak b in the monthly chart in the s and p when all the others had given d e or even f tops how could just one give you a major signal we have to watch it very closely and we're still watching it look from the low of 21 91 in march of 2020 to the higher 48.18 point 62 uh in uh in january that's a huge move we haven't even we've given back what is it's about a little more than a third right uh from 48 18 to 36 36 in the s and p and since this is now the eighth month we're now about to go into the ninth month of the correction this is one of the longest corrections we've had have a look at this for a correction going back to 2000 and look at that one 2000 and uh the high of 21 34 may of 2015 held all the way through to the lower february of 2016 at 1810 that was a 320 point decline so yeah look at that it was a long and it became a long oval pattern that had a breakout of more than one to one so yes you can take time we had a little time we had about five months of the the correction that was at 287 72 back in uh i forgot to put the date somewhere around february of 2018 uh yeah february of 2018 and lasted until december oh i didn't realize that no come on that's not right what oh that was uh the wrong one yeah that one lasted for one two three four five about six maybe seven or eight months and then we broke out to 2940 and then that was in uh wasn't that november or so october and then we pulled back to 2346 2346 600 points so that was december so yeah these things can last this is the ugliest one that we've had we had a very short one that was in february of 2020 from 33 93 35 decline this is looking more concerted there's no question about does down 273 so um within that context let me get back to the story the questions have come in so could i follow up on the amazon discussion yesterday sure i can oh yes there it is all right here we go so there's a p is now down 49 in leg c to the downside this is the low that i was looking at as key support of 39 at 39 10 july the 26th and now we're below that in leg c stochastic's only at 2 percent i think we're getting close to at least some kind of a reversal a bounce i'll be back basal chapter tiger technicians hour one more segment to are you grinding in the market but seeing little to no return or are you a successful trader simply looking to make your job a little easier learn to take the path of least resistance with david white's powerful trading newsletter david white is an accomplished trader whose deep understanding of technology and the markets allows him to consistently 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larry's analysis after all he's got 45 years experience as a day trader larry will also provide daily charts videos and data on the key markets that he's tracking expect notifications from larry on market movement you need to act on at any time first-time subscribers also get a 30-day money back guarantee if you're not satisfied let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up subscribe to the fibonacci 24-7 newsletter today tfnn.com educating investors this segment is brought to you by think or swim for more information just click the think or swim banner on the front page of tfnn.com hi folks in this segment i'm just gonna go through a couple of things because tomorrow i want to spend my overview for the coming week while i'm away i'll be back to do my show my newsletter go out almost every day but i'll be back on where was it i'll be back september the 12th evening so 13th i'll be doing marcia the 13th so i'll be away a week in a day so what we're looking at is junk is down $1.17 at 90.72 this is the spider balkley's high yield bond they made that peak do you remember spent a little time with that quite some time ago maybe four five six months ago i said uh-oh junk has made a peak d in the monthly chart at 100 and somewhere around about 110-ish and that goes together with hyg hyg is the this is the i shares ibox high yield core bond etf that only made a peak see i could have called it a c1 c2 but i went with junk to say that i went with the j and k because uh that was the same pattern but it made a d and yeah we are a deep pullback this is serious stuff and the h pattern that makes that whole area of the 73 is key key supporting yeah we are 73 65 uh the low that was made in the doji candle low of the 70 week in the 17th of june of 72 89 start to close under 72 that's just a completely wall different ball game now you're going to the chamber of roman candle of um may i'm sorry that was march i believe it was yeah must have been march of sorry dan i didn't do that with trade station i should have done today's god one of those days so not easy oh there we go this is march of 2020 and 67 52 so this is very serious i do not take this lightly and so we started with race cash and it's really important even if we could put balances it's not all done we've got a lot to do so be very careful cash is king select individual positions if the show technicals are good i i think that that's the way to go be very selective other honest