 What is up everybody it's Stas here and in this video we're going to be doing an overall market update taking a look at the Dow Jones the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq. We're also going to be doing a trading update talking about what I did today in the markets as well as some stocks and ETFs that I'm watching and looking to trade right now in the end of November heading into the month of December of 2019. And as you guys read in the title we're also going to be breaking down the natural gas report. My opinion on that kind of going over the technical analysis on U-Gas, D-Gas and natural gas as well. And I'm going to go into one stock that I actually bought today that I'm looking to swing trade over these next couple of weeks. So if you guys find value in this video go down below hit that like button that's all I ask and consider subscribing if you want to see further content from me. And if you want to be a part of the Strive Smart community the Discord group chat as well as the Facebook group both of those are linked down below as well as the Strive Smart merch. So let's get into it guys let's start off here with the S&P like we always do right now it's up $13 it closed actually at $13.11 in the green up 0.42%. And yet again guys we hit another all-time high here really at the end of the market in the last couple of minutes of the market at $3154.26. So beautiful day today the bulls were in charge all day as you guys can see the uptrend continued from the previous session. And if we go to this one hour chart you guys can see we're riding that EMA we're getting higher and higher in terms of the price. And what's that doing guys that's actually bringing the R side to a more overbought spot. So at this point I really wouldn't be surprised if the markets maybe sold off a bit next week maybe on Friday as well because tomorrow is Thanksgiving the market is actually closed. So I'd watch and see if we do pull down in these next couple of days and the level I'd watch for is this 50 SMA on the hourly chart because as you guys can see we've held that over the past couple of weeks. So that could potentially put the SMP maybe down to about $31.28 maybe around $31.30 right around that level. So that's kind of what I'm watching right now obviously the bulls are in charge everything is looking solid but a retracement is in the near future a slight retracement in my personal opinion. And if we break down the SPY very quickly guys very similar to the SMP obviously because it tracks the SMP right the SPY it's probably the most popular ETF out there that tracks the SMP 500 and this one hit an all-time high today at $315.57 the up trend is beautiful on the on the hourly chart you guys can see hey maybe we do see a pull down right you know maybe down to that $180 SMA putting us at around $312 maybe $313 roughly over these next couple of days as we potentially see a retracement here so that's kind of what I'm watching of course those two are pretty much identical because the SPY again tracks the SMP. Now if we go to the Dow Jones industrial average guys this one's up 42 points at the close up .15% and if we go to the daily chart you can see yet again another all-time high $28174.97 for the Dow Jones and if we pull back to that hourly chart to see the performance you can see we pull down held that 180 SMA or actually the 50 SMA rather and we obviously hit a higher high from there so if we run up again guys in the Dow like the SMP in the short term I'd expect a pull down I honestly expect a pull down either way right even if we run up a day or two then we'll definitely see a pull down in my opinion or of course if we just pull down on Friday or maybe even on Monday right so that's kind of what I'm watching a pull down of the 50 SMA would be helpful here putting it down to about 27975 maybe 28,000 flat and at that point if the markets dip guys I'll probably buy the dip me personally let me know down below in the comments would you buy the dip in the markets I'd love to know what you have to think so going to the Nasdaq guys up .62% at the close actually this is still climbing after hours because it's the future so the future of the Nasdaq right now it's up 52 points up .6% and just like the Dow just like the SMP guys the Nasdaq absolutely crushed it today right we go to that 20-day chart actually we're already on the 20-day chart you guys can see we've been running up beautifully riding that uptrend riding those moving averages we just hit an all-time high roughly at 84.56 which is insane right so hey we might keep going in the short term but ultimately I think this one just like the SMP and the Dow it's going to pull down it's going to go down to this 50 SMA maybe a nice 1% of retracement or it might go to that 180 SMA giving it more of a probably a two to three percent retracement and more like a 1.5% retracement so that's very possible here in the short term before we continue up in my opinion and yeah would you buy that dip let me know down below in the comments I personally would buy the dip there's a bunch of ETFs that you could trade if you're purely just looking at the indexes right you can trade SQQQ and TQQQ these two right here that's a bull ETF is the T1 and the bear ETF is the S1 those track the Nasdaq right at a 3x leverage rate you can trade SPXS or XPX SPXL if you want to trade ETFs that track the S&P 500 and those are as well leveraged so that's kind of what you can do there if you want to purely play the markets and that's kind of just the market update in general for today so let me know again down below in the comments what are your thoughts on this market right now and let's hop quickly and talk about what I did in terms of my trading so you all know I was swing trading Shopify right from these past like 10 days or something like that maybe 1 to 2 weeks is the general range that I've been holding Shopify here and I accumulated my shares in the 315 to around 317 dollar range during this point right and that that was really because we started to break trend on Shopify right you guys can see here we slowly started to break this is the 90 day 2 hour chart we slowly started to break moving averages right we broke the 180 SMA 50 SMA we got the bullish crossed 50 SMA crossing above the 180 SMA and again this is when I was accumulating those shares as this was quite bullish from my point of view and then we got the ultimate breakout here and like I mentioned in yesterday's video 325 if we break that which we did obviously in yesterday's video I said we could probably fill up to 340 345 which as you guys can see we did that and I actually ended up selling into this strength to lock in my profit just before this holiday you know day tomorrow when the markets closed just to be safe right locking in that profit in my opinion is never a bad idea especially since Shopify is at a resistance and it's overbought on this 2 hour chart so where did I sell you know I sold right around here I believe it was more towards the beginning of the day if I held a little bit more guys I actually would have squeezed another 2% out of this thing but honestly I'm cool with what I ended up you know making it was around 6-7% I believe on the trade if we look here you know 315 up to here yeah it was more about 6-7% yep like I said so that's what I did in terms of Shopify and I actually ended up buying like you guys saw in title Home Depot guys ticker symbol HD and this is one that I actually started buying pre-market today actually if we go to this daily chart you guys can see we were gapping up pre-market I bought a couple shares here once we dipped I bought a little bit more here so my average cost is around like 221-90 maybe even in the cost of 222 right now so that's kind of where my cost is on Home Depot and you guys know if you watched my video yesterday especially this is one that I'm really interested in swing trading for about a week or two maybe even three weeks due to the weakness we're seeing here this is kind of what I like doing and I found success with swing trading companies like this right companies that are blue chip companies they end up falling after earnings but then ultimately they end up recovering and that's a nice setup that I'm seeing here with Home Depot right if we go to the long-term chart here guys I'm talking three-year chart maybe even the 20-year chart maybe that's too much actually yeah maybe it was the year chart that I was looking that looked really great yes here it is the year day the year day chart that you guys can see here this is a natural retracement for Home Depot in terms of the trend here you guys can see literally in the past year we've seen multiple pull downs like we've seen and we've recovered from all of them and we're actually already recovering from this pull down so that's giving me faith to at least scale into Home Depot here I'm not in crazily guys I always scale into my swing trade positions to mitigate risk right because if this thing turns downwards I'd cut losses right and I wouldn't lose as much money as if I put all my money in at first so little bit little bit here and there scaling in but as of now I'm up and I'm really liking this as a position that I'm probably going to hold for two three weeks maybe even upwards to a month plus right so that's what I'm doing with Home Depot sold off of Shopify like I mentioned and that's pretty much all I ended up doing today guys really the strategy that I've been following is really mitigating losses by cutting the losers like I did right I cut McDonald's at a good price I didn't really lose much money on that trade like I mentioned a couple days ago you know I cut PayPal a little early you know PayPal's crushing it right now if I held it guys I'd be up a lot on my position right I cut PayPal down here but either way at this point guys I was seeing a break in trend right hindsight's 2020 I was seeing a break in trend and I cut at a very very small loss if not break even so I'm really mitigating my risk here you know cutting off the losers and capitalizing heavily on the winners which at this point really my main winners over the past week two weeks have been Shopify and you guys remember Chipotle Mexican Grill I did quite well on got completely out of that yesterday and Facebook was also one that I swing traded about two three weeks ago that I sold out I believe last week that was another winner so that's kind of what I've been focusing on just looking at a lot of these large caps you know as I'm seeing the breakout potential so let me know what you guys did down below in the comment section now let's break down that natural gas report very quickly because we got it a day early because tomorrow is Thanksgiving right so let me pull it up and I'll show you guys these numbers and if you guys remember what we talked about over the past couple of weeks kind of the consensus based on my research and what I looked up and different analysts we were seeing you know a consensus of around a 50 to 60 BCF billion cubic feet withdrawal of natural gas for this week the weather was mild you know warmer than expected we all knew the draw wasn't going to be that big but we didn't think it was going to be this small guys it came in at 28 billion cubic feet the withdrawal which again is completely under what we were expecting in terms of the analysts and kind of the you know consensus so we can see based on regions the east saw a 15 BCF withdrawal Midwest saw a 17 BCF withdrawal the mountain saw a one BCF withdrawal pacific actually saw an injection of one BCF south central two BCF injection salt for BCF injection non-salt one BCF withdrawal so you guys can see you know the withdrawal is about a third less than it was last week because last week we had a what was it a negative 96 BCF so we had 96 billion cubic feet withdrawal so that is not looking too great for the you gas holders out there and for the natural gas bulls right but we've been talking about how then the short term in the short term whether supposed to be warm heading into the early months or rather the early days of December the weather supposed to be warmer than expected and mild right but eventually what the you guys holders want is a cold sweep to come in and obviously demand sparking up and prices of natural gas going up and I still personally think that will eventually happen here but the question is when is it going to happen because in the short term here let's be honest guys D gas does look like it has a stronger potential so let's break down natural gas based on today then we'll talk about some screenshots that I do have here on my phone so NGF 20 let's pull this thing up and let's talk about what we're seeing so we'll break it down first on the four hour chart and guys this is looking quite ugly a falling knife in my opinion and it's clear that it's looking like a falling knife here based on the chart right we got rejected by that EMA lower high we hit that lower low here um you know at about 248 we broke that critical support at 257 that I was talking about over these past couple of videos so the bears are clearly in charge here guys natural gas it's not looking like it's bottoming out right now but one thing I do want to keep an eye on is going to be this level that we're at right now which happens to be a pretty big support at around 247 you guys can see we held that level a couple of weeks ago really towards the end of July into the month of August before we saw that big rally so it's worth watching that level 247-248 if we break that guys that's going to be very very bad in my opinion quite quite a bearish break there that could lead to more blood in the waters for natural gas at least here in the short term right so you can imagine that D gas did quite well today up 3.53% up almost five bucks and it's looking bullish right we're breaking above moving averages we're starting to test levels that we weren't at you know that we haven't been at since the late September to early October days so I'm interested in seeing what it does here and obviously you guys was down about 3.67% about 4% today down 45 cents so let's talk about these two screenshots that I have on my phone here and kind of how they relate to the price because this stuff is going to impact the short term price of natural gas and thus fluctuating D gas and you guys natural gas prices moved lower on Wednesday following a smaller than expected draw in natural gas inventories like we already talked about right despite the robust levels of short positions in the market there is no imminent impetus that is expected to drive up the price over ahead of the holiday weekend the weather is expected to be colder than normal only on the east coast of the US over the next six to ten days and then the weather is expected to become milder during the eight to fourteen day forecast so that reiterates my point in terms of the short term kind of mild weather that we're seeing across the country here really not in the east coast but mostly across other areas and that's kind of going to affect the price of natural gas to the downside like we said so you guys can see here one weather system will track across the great lakes and Ohio valley today with rain and snow while a second more potent storm slams into the west coast the western us storm will track into the central and eastern us this weekend and early next week with heavy rain and snow along with cold conditions with widespread lows of zeros two thirties for strong national demand high pressure will return across the western central and southern us mid next week with highs warming into the fifties to the seventies for much lighter demand overall demand will be moderate today which is right now that i'm recording this video then increasing to high early next week so based on that guys in my opinion short term degas still is in charge here in terms of the you guys degas leveraged etn's and that's kind of how i'm playing it but eventually like i've mentioned in all my videos once we start to see some real cold weather out there i believe you guys will recover but we just have to wait and see like i've been mentioning in these videos when that is going to happen and i'm eager to see when that will happen so let's talk about very quickly some other stocks and ETFs that i want to share with you all that i see a lot of potential in so we already talked about home depot we talked about Shopify although i didn't mention on Shopify i do believe eventually we can break up here into the next channel which is between 345 and 370 bucks and i think if we do get that 345 break and maybe some consolidation there you know i believe this thing could even pop higher and we could capitalize on that trade when we see the technical break so i'm watching that being very patient because again i just got out of Shopify so i want to let it breathe a little bit before getting into it again so another one that i'm watching that i talked about in yesterday's video is amazon ticker symbol amz and this one actually broke 1800 very very bullish move here now we're looking to fill the gap up to 1850 so this is one that i'm watching for friday session guys and probably heading into next week if we pull down we might see some consolidation at 1800 because honestly the r-size overbought here so if we get that that's going to be quite good and give it a lot of potential for upside if we get that pop after the consolidation so amz and Shopify home depot you guys degas these are all the ones on my list that i'm looking at down here guys so the last one that i didn't mention is neo ticker symbol and i oh this is one that really filled the gap that i was talking about in these past couple of videos and i did not capitalize on the move to be completely honest with you guys but you know that i own neo in my long-term account so i'm enjoying these gains right here i'm enjoying these gains on a position that i'm actually down quite a bit on so this is good this is slowly coming back and the fact that we broke 240 now it gives it some room to run even further up maybe upwards to 270 as we can see here maybe even upwards to about you know 280 and maybe even upwards to three bucks guys so these are some levels that neo can get to but in the short term here it does seem a bit hot so maybe it cools off before doing that but it's still worth watching in my opinion so i'm going to end off the video here guys if you enjoyed it feel free to go down below hit that like button and consider subscribing if you want to see further content for me and also if you want to be a further part of the strive smart community the discord group chat link is down below as well as the facebook group and i'm actually running a black friday sale on the strive smart merge that's linked down below and you can use that code to get 10 off of the merge again that's linked down below as well as the pinned comment in the comment section so i hope you all have a fantastic thanksgiving if you celebrate thanksgiving i really hope you guys eat a lot of turkey mashed potatoes what else you guys eat what am i eating turkey mashed potatoes probably some gravy you guys know you got to put gravy on that turkey and uh yeah enjoy it with your families watch some sports kick back relax i'll catch you all in the next video again happy thanksgiving i hope you all have a great day tomorrow peace out