 Welcome to this Think Tech bi-weekly show, The State of the State of Hawaii. I'm your host, Stephanie Stoll Dalton. Our show title today relates to the election season we're in to address how Hawaii rebounds under what is gonna be our new political leadership. Even though the primary election results are a little bit delayed, as I understand it, there may be some more recent news, but the polls strongly suggest a candidate has a substantial lead. So I think this means our show guests have a sound basis for speculating on what the new administration's promise and policymaking can be for our State of Hawaii. I wanna welcome our three guest discussants who are here to discuss these topics and they are Honlulu Magazine contributing editor, Don Wallace, and they are Dr. Colin Moore, the director of the Public Policy Center at the University of Hawaii, Manoa, and Attorney Chuck Crumpton from Crumpton Collaborative Solutions. Thank you all for participating in the show today and for taking the time to focus on our Hawaii issues. I thought we could start with just mentioning that, that the rebound word in the title is worked with the number of letters that were needed, but the question is really, what is it that Hawaii needs under the new political leadership? Is it rebounding to where we were or are we looking to get to some other issues here and into some deeper thinking about what Hawaii needs to be led to do and guided by its new political leadership? So I thought that I'd start with asking you, Colin. As you know, many people have talked about diversifying the local economy for many years now and you've done some studies on this and yet Hawaii is still heavily reliant on tourism. We're also in a state where more than 135,000 small businesses across the islands employ almost 50% of Hawaii's workers. So what I would like to ask you is what to comment on is what have you found from your surveys should be done differently about tourism and the economy? I know this is a huge question, but if you can talk about it in terms of what you know from your survey work over the past year or longer, I'm sure, and tell us a little bit of your thoughts on that. Sure. So I mean, so to answer your first question about the surveys, I mean, we started conducting a bunch of surveys about tourism during the pandemic and no surprise to anyone, people have been much more critical of this industry and this is a relatively new development. I mean, you can look at the surveys, the Hawaii Tourism Authority took going back years and there are always folks who grumbled about tourism, but really about six years ago or so, the numbers of support, it really started to drop off where more people were likely to say, tourism causes more problems than benefits. You know, that's kind of a shocking finding to see for our number one industry. The candidates all addressed this who ran for office this year. They all talked about diversifying the economy, changing tourism, and we have actually even already made some positive moves in that direction, changes to visiting places like Hanama Bay, where you have to make reservations, where they've increased the price. I mean, some of these common sense solutions have already been adopted and these have a lot of public support. Diversifying the economy, of course, is the big question going forward and I'm glad you said we're not necessarily trying to rebound because I think that would suggest that we were pretty happy where we were before COVID and I think a lot of people wouldn't agree with that. And there really aren't any silver bullet solutions to diversify in our economy. I mean, I think we should be really clear on that. There are good ideas, you know, I think film is a good idea, that's been a relatively successful industry. People have talked about they're trying to combine tourism with other industries that we're interested in supporting like agritourism, I think that has some potential for success, but we shouldn't fool ourselves into thinking that there's gonna be another industry that replaces tourism now or I think anytime in the near future in terms of the amount of money it generates for the state's economy. So we just have to first, I think, accept that and figure out how we can manage it better and how we can, how people can see the benefits from that whether that's recruiting a different sort of tourist, again, something that's easier said than done or just managing it better in terms of the infrastructure so it doesn't feel so overwhelming for the people who have to live with that industry. That's very interesting. I think that people then will have expectations calling from this new leadership we're gonna have as far as trying to make a difference here. What do you think they're gonna expect from this new governor? They're gonna expect a lot of things. I think that whether it's Duke Iona or Josh Green and I'm pretty confident it's gonna be Josh Green given the political makeup of our state, they're not gonna get a very long honeymoon. Folks have not been too supportive of our recent governors, yes, Governor E. Gay One reelection but his approval ratings have been pretty bad for most of his two administrations. Governor Abercrombie, of course, didn't even win reelection so they're gonna have to deliver something relatively quickly. I know that Lieutenant Governor Green has proposed implementing a green fee relatively quickly. That would be some kind of a fee levied on every tourist who enters the state. There might be legal questions about how you could do that constitutionally but I think he's gonna try to do that relatively quickly. He needs a win like that to show that he's being pretty active on this issue. Yeah, that's very interesting. You kind of refer to what Don has written about which is in some of his articles about this, we call it Hawaii's equilibrium or Don, you labeled it Hawaii's equilibrium or about the kind of a social compact here in Hawaii that has held together the practices of labor and other activities of the economy, Don. So could you, and with Colin saying that people are gonna be a little less patient the way things are going, could you talk a little bit about what this Hawaii's equilibrium was and what is its, will it come back and what is its value and what do you see happening in that area of combat? Sure, one reason you've reminded you of Colin is because I'm always using Colin as a source but also I was talking to a couple of economists, Eugene Tian, the state economist and Paul Grubecker, TZ Economics and Mike McCartney over at D-Bed. And I also pulled in this article in February, a lot of small businesses and particularly about how the feeling that their employees who they'd had to lay off en masse, they brought them back in October of 2021 and they were just slammed by tourism, they were overworked, burned out, they dropped out. They were constantly having to rehire and these were veteran employees, they said. So that part of the pact where the employee no longer feels valued or is burned out before the management is aware of that. Now we know that's happening in the hotels because they weren't cleaning rooms as often. So the hotels brought on fewer staff but then the fewer staff ended up having to clean up for a three or four day stay all in one shot. That's been a deal that the hotel unions have been pressing to get more money, more relief, more bodies on this. Two examples of the pact, not yet restored to where the people who are really doing the hard jobs feel that they're respected and they're getting paid. And of course their pay is always a lot worse. And then I guess my feeling about the bounce back in the equilibrium is Josh Green is, I don't think he's known for his contacts in the legislature, he's not a mover and shaker. In fact, he's kind of an outlier. History would probably predict that outliers. They have a tendency to get boxed out by the power figures like Donovan Delecruz and Scott Sakai and others. They're gonna may want to teach him a lesson as to who is in charge. So I predict it might be rough sailing. On the other hand, he doesn't seem bought by anyone even though there's a lot of money behind him. He speaks his mind, he goes in unpopular directions. And I think the rebound, we already have tourism back. It feels like it's a little overwhelming and maybe it's a fire hose at this point. By cracking down on vacation rentals though, we're seeing a real difference, neighborhoods are happier. And that's in effect, it took five years of three different laws to get there. So that's a positive. Another positive as Colin mentioned is getting online registration for vacation visits and letting locals have the front line in the queue. Diamondhead, Crater, Hanama Bay, but we're still overwhelmed in our regular spots. The traffic is terrible. I think one of the things that maybe any administration has to do is to get some early winds up front that make people feel like they're being listened to. And I have a couple of suggestions on that that maybe we should hear what Chuck has to say. Well, actually kind of eager to hear about what early winds would be. If you could come back to that, yeah. You're gonna hold my feet to the fire here. I'm afraid we'll get so involved, we'll skip over it. So let's hear those early winds. Well, I think first you don't wanna get bogged down in a battle you can't win. And I think TMT has set up to be a very, very divisive struggle. We now have a state police force, we have OHOP perhaps, we have a slate of people who support TMT, but we have a huge amount of people on the big island and elsewhere who are gonna put their bodies down on that line. And I think they should delay action on that for some time. And it's simply, it doesn't add enough jobs to justify turning into a very public fight that kind of devours all public attention and resources. And then a good win that we're having right now is the decision to put just $12 million into the Waikiki Shell. This is an underused resource and when the Blaisdale was shut down, they started retrofitting the Shell to sort of take the place so people could have outdoor concerts. Well, if you go and sit outside, you're engaging as a community with each other. It's a really positive builder of morale and reinforcement. We were at the Aquarium Sunday night for the Slacky Festival. We didn't even pay, we just went outside and leaned against a fence and that's a Hawaii thing you can do. And you're surrounding with your fellow citizens and you're interacting in a positive way. You know, you're not fighting over a resource. And you know, it's a very small amount of money. If we could start, the bandstand hasn't been used, for instance, for years. Let's put the Royal Hawaiian Band or an equivalent, maybe a Kiki talent show out there regularly, start the small stuff, which will also help educate the tourists. And then as far as bigger stuff, well, we have the climate and infrastructure bill coming and that money, climate is business. Climate's gonna put money into the economy. We can't waste it like we did with rail. So we have to start fixing our barrier roads. And I really think the whole business of the burritos and you know, the control of coastal erosion has to be stepped into now that we've let the department of permitted and planning simply give up. And if they move in decisively and say remove these, get rid of them, people are finally gonna have something to cheer about. Yeah. Well, I'm a little bit concerned about those early winds and moving in those directions when there might be some concern or there might be some stymie of if it is Josh Green that's in the governor's role. I mean, if he's gonna be punished or stymied in his legislative moves, I did hear that was a concern expressed by one of the other candidates in comments and to some of his responses. But maybe Charles, you could talk to that for Governor Green, potentially Governor Green if he's going to find himself in that situation. Do you think he's had enough experience to know how to get through or make his way through that kind of offensive against him? I mean, we don't wanna get into the situation Biden's in. Of course, he's broken through it too, but anyway. So Chuck, what do you think about Governor Green's capacity to wind his way through that kind of assault? Yeah, that's a great question because what we haven't seen out of Josh Green and what we're gonna really need to see in spades and did not see in David E. Gaye and didn't see to a very great extent in Neil Abercrombie either is the team building the relationship building skills to gather the people who are not just gonna be able to get some short-term wins. And maybe Sylvia having a longtime legislative leader in there in his administration. If he can do with her in a working relationship what Biden has failed to do with Kamala Harris in her position, it's not a criticism, it's a choice, but it's a choice that has consequences. I think Colin and Don have raised some really, really good points. Some of the short-term things that really plug into long-term things we have in this state, tremendous resources of people, data, programs and projects for ecological preservation and protection for cultural preservation and protection and in other areas as well in film, entertainment. We're not using those to connect with people that come into Hawaii to experience Hawaii at a more cultural ecological entertaining level. And we could, there's a benefit to everyone of getting those people plugged in together. So it'll be interesting to see whether Josh Green or anyone in his administration picks up on the need to work with some of these groups, cultivate and reward them for making ecological preservation and protection experiences, cultural preservation and protection experiences available to people to come to Hawaii. So the meaning and value of those trips, it's into those areas instead of just pure momentary. That was third stay night entertainment. Just a thought. Yeah. Do you think, I think he has a lot of respect for his medical doctoring and especially during the pandemic but do you think he's going to be able to maintain that second job while he's the governor, Chuck? How does that fit into his effort to reach out like you're suggesting? You know, I'd really like Collins and Don's thoughts but one impression is that that may not be nearly as important as whether he can connect and work well with them, relationship build and team build with other areas outside of healthcare. He got a lucky break in politically in getting to use his medical and healthcare expertise and Governor Haley as nice a guy as he is and has well intentioned as he is and we all have respect and appreciate him for that. It was not one of his gifts. And we're going to need to see whether Josh Green can work with people outside of his actually fairly limited area of expertise. Collin, what do you think? I totally agree. I think he actually knows this as one of his biggest challenges and I know he's been trying to have more conversations with people who can guide him in these other areas around economic development, housing, to break out of that healthcare bubble he sort of is in. And I think we're going to get an indication of this if he wins when we see who he appoints to some of those top level agency positions. I mean, if he can be persuasive, I mean, it can be difficult sometimes to get really good people to fill those jobs and I think he's going to have to, if he wants a strong administration, persuade a lot of pretty prominent people to take pay cuts, to come and work for him in a very public position where you'll get a lot of media criticism. I mean, that can be kind of a brutal experience for people who don't really need to make that sacrifice. I think that'll be an initial indication and I agree with the point, his other great weaknesses as you and Don were saying, he doesn't have great relationships with the legislators. I mean, with the legislators. He really was kind of a lone wolf, although he served for a long time. He wasn't part of, you know, certainly a leader of any of the factions and Sylvia Luke could be a resource but Sylvia Luke also might be planning to run against him in four years. And if she's doing that, she might not want to help Josh Green succeed. So that'll be an interesting dynamic for him to navigate. The one thing I will say about Green though, and you saw this in COVID, is that he can be very skilled at using social media and platforms to interact directly with people. I mean, I think that is, he did get a lucky break with COVID but he also took advantage of it. I mean, all of those weekly meetings or more than that when he'd update everyone about the status of COVID, he's pretty good at that one-on-one connection that retail politics, street level connection. And he could use that. I mean, one tactic for dealing with an uncooperative legislature is to do the old Theodore Roosevelt bully pulpit and try to kind of embarrass them into doing what you want because they're getting such pushback from their constituencies. That's not something Governor E. Gay I think was really capable of doing, but Green might be. That's a really interesting point. Well, talking about the level of process here is really important and we need to be thinking about that more and how to help with that. I guess maybe if people understand that that's what he's trying to do, he can get a lot more support from the electorate. But I wanted to move to the Senator Schatz's reaction to the bill that passed the Inflation Reduction Act to the point where he was crying and giving Hawaii shockers coming out of the Congress here at the Capitol building here. But he's been very excited about the benefits to Hawaii, which are to have the first time this kind of money coming into Hawaii. And also to be for the tax credits, up to 30% tax credits on getting these changes made or putting in solar or whatever the alternative energy source is. So he's really excited about that. And also there have been suggestions that would draw on that kind of federal resource that might get us more into the rail situation. Have you heard about the idea for the spaceport? So let's see, Don, have you had whether you'd like to have a spaceport here? It, I eat like an airport, but it would be to launch a rocket. Like you would get the Tesla guy out here or the Virgin Galactics, I guess, to launch some satellites out of where, like Hawaii or here, I don't know, what's your take on those kind of out? Well, first, I like to say I have a carport, so I'd love a spaceport. But that's an interesting, again, contentious issue. I assume I think it was gonna be Hawaii and the existing stuff that's out there. It's already been an object of protest. There's a concern about military building up, a concern about pollution from the launching and the chemicals that are released. Basically, the militarization of Hawaii is a spaceport is a great concept, but if it's a billionaire, in other words, and it's not the military, there might be some people who'd be willing to let it let it come to pass without fighting it too hard. But to me, I grew up in the era of the Reader's Digest cover where everyone had a rocket backpack. And I know that a spaceport won't solve our problems. It will provide a firework show for tourists like no one has ever seen, but it won't bring in enough money. It'll be located, it'll be a lot of outside people making money doing it, which is kind of the case with TMT too. We need stuff that's on the ground that gives people work. The climate and infrastructure bill could put a tremendous amount into basically terraforming our coasts and bringing them into a moving houses back, moving the roads back. It's got to happen anyway. And then really improving the lives of the people who live along the coasts in these places, in good concrete ways that also happen to employ them. And then you get the solar, which is really desperately needed. And I think solar does meet rail because if we had spent $12 billion on solar starting in 2010, think what we would have achieved so far. And it would have been a gain distributed over the population. So, you know, I'm good with rockets, but I don't think it's the solution to anything. Well, I think it makes them really good points. We are loaded with military here and we do have nuclear submarines that can send up rockets too. So anyway, we are almost out of time here, but I wanted to just find out if there was an interest in looking to comparisons with other states. In other words, some of this federal work, federal inflow can give us, can give the state a chance to do some of these things that make Hawaii more competitive, so to speak, or comparable to other states that have major projects that they get a lot of attention for. And so that's why I was bringing that up. But it sounds like we've got enough to do to make things happen within the state and to get ourselves back into position to not rebound, but actually to maybe reform and maybe restructure some of the ways that business is done here and we handle the challenges of tourism that we have. With a little bit of time left, I wanted to go around and have each of you talk about where you think the state is headed. In a way, it's a chance to talk about what are your grand fantasies for what might happen in the state under the new leadership, the new political leadership, our new governor and his administration, or if you have disaster fantasies too, to share those. So why don't we take it around, Robin, and start with, let's see, Chuck, let's start with you, you're next. Well, one thing I'd start with is if we've learned anything, it's maybe to be a little bit careful about inviting mega-billionaires to come in with their values and their priorities. All this Zuckerberg, others, that hasn't worked out very well. And it's to a great extent, it's because of that. So if we prioritize our value, our greatest needs, where do we need to go? What might that look like? What needs to happen to get there? And look at states and entities that have done that well and see whether some of those might be receptive to doing that here, just to thought. Do you wanna be more specific about what that might be? I don't know that anybody has really done effective climate change or carbon tax work yet. I don't know that anybody has really done sea level rise, effective work yet, but there have to be people who are at the leading edge of knowledge and projects and prospects for doing that. Maybe that's one of the places where we should be looking. That's really interesting. I would think that that's important to look to contributing in that manner. With the special position that Hawaii is in, you would think that would be very important to look to. So there's a star turn for Hawaii to be on its own in some area like that and of endeavor. Okay, well, Colin, what do you think about grand fantasies here for Hawaii? My grand fantasy is that we do the basic things right. I think that's, study after study has shown that's really the best way to attract better quality industry, provide more jobs. That means improving our infrastructure, improving the capacity of our state government, why it takes so long, you're fixing simple things, like let's get building permits approved faster. These basic governance requirements are what we need to do first and it's something that's in our capacity to fix. I mean, we can all tell fantasy stories about how we want Hawaii to be a cybersecurity hub or something, you know, medical tourism hub as Lieutenant Governor suggested, but really the best way to try to accomplish that is to create a competent and effective state government and provide high quality infrastructure, better educational facilities. That's what I think we need to invest in. That will provide the foundation that where all of these other things will begin to arise naturally. We've got to stop trying to pick winners and we've just got to improve the basic services the state is offering. It's interesting, very, very interesting and important too. Okay, Don, what is your contribution here for Hawaii? Yeah, agreeing with Colin and Chuck, both. I guess my dream would be in affordable housing that we would turn to some models that have worked in other cities, such as forming land trusts where we buy land and then we build the housing. We don't leave affordable housing to developers who failed at it and will always. And then we already own a lot of state land in which to perform the basis of this. And we put properties, basically, they never sell. People get to occupy them. They have a guarantee their rents won't rise or else keep a very low rise to a cost of living. New York did this. They had unions that had entire housing blocks, Penn South, an insurance company built a town called Stuyvesant town for 30,000 people. And these things stabilized and built communities of working class people. And I happened to live in the vicinity of them and I grew to admire there was a garment workers union providing housing for their own people, which might be a message for the unions to maybe get some skin in the game and get into the affordable housing business instead of just taking money, particularly to build new houses and use it more of our farmland. So that's my hope is affordable housing that is gonna stay that way. It's not gonna flip in five or 10 or 15 years. Okay. Well, that's a, it's really interesting. I appreciate all of your contributions to on this discussion and we need to do it again because there's so much more to say, but I wanna thank all of you because we're almost out of time. And so thank you to Don Wallace from Honolulu magazine and also Dr. Colin Moore from the Policy Study Center at UH Manoa. And also Charles or Chuck, I think is what you wanna be called Crumpton from your organization on, what is that organization again? Collaborative, the collaboration and the process issues. So it's very good having you here and hearing all of your perspectives on the new era of our political life in Hawaii when we have the governor in place, which will be soon. So thank you very much and mahalo to the viewers and aloha and see you in two weeks. Thank you so much for watching Think Tech Hawaii. If you like what we do, please like us and click the subscribe button on YouTube and the follow button on Vimeo. You can also follow us on Facebook, Instagram, Twitter and LinkedIn and donate to us at thinktechhawaii.com. Mahalo.