 The following is a presentation of TFNN The Tiger Technician Hour with your host Basil Chapman Call now toll-free at 1-877-927-6648 Internationally at 727-445-1044 Now Basil Chapman Welcome to the Tiger Technician Hour My pleasure to be here Noon till 1pm Eastern time 877-927-6648 Love to take your calls First off, let me just say that the meet-up tonight for the Boston Investors Group and the Investors Business Daily crowd from that meet-over at MIT that was scheduled for this evening it was going to be a potluck at 6.30pm and a meet-and-greet for people to make some kind of contacts and then at 7.30pm I was going to be the guest speaker it had to be bespotted it's still snowing outside right now it's where I am, it's been mixed all over the greater Boston area some people just had rain some people had 8 or 10 inches of snow yesterday and then having a repeat performance today so it was decided to make it a week from tonight on Tuesday a week I'll put you in on the information I think the timing of this is going to be great because in the throws of starting I'm just calling it for now a consolidation the speed with which we've come down and the speed with which all of a sudden last night suddenly everybody was talking about how bearish things are suddenly the VIX, the Volatility Index which is ho-harm, couldn't care less VIX, there it is trading 3 days ago, 4 days ago in the 11.5 area then it bounces to 12 no big deal suddenly today pops up to 17.99 just misses around number 18 that kind of speed just says to me, you know what I think a chunk of the move down has already been accomplished and we've set the we've set the seeds and I'm going to go through that in great detail let me just run the numbers quickly Volatility Index at 60.57, up $1.66 hit 17.99 therefore closes today under 16.10, I'd say 15.90 it says okay, we're ready for a counter-trend balance, just a balance because I think that we have made some kind of a top so let's just deal with it that way let's go through the numbers now INDU, this is the Dow trading at Dow 382, at 27,400 main load today at 27,325 where does it take it to it takes you to this gray dash line the 50 period exponential moving average I had said some time ago that I couldn't believe that with this cup formation right here that at some point, if we took out the low of this 27.675 level there couldn't be a move that at least falls in some of the gaps well here's this gap right here, the gap of the 4th of November the low is 27.402 the day before the high is 27.347 what's today's low? 27.325 so we've at least done something there the next the next level of support would be the breakout the breakout of the high of the 1st of November of 27.347 so that tells us that the low today is already taken out at that particular level right there therefore a chunk of the work is being done at least in the very near term so if you've had fantastic profits if you are able to get puts or whatever it is on the short side it's not a bad idea just take a little bit off right now just money management I do think we're going to be going low we're going to try to fill the gap of the 600 roll over make the H pattern and then start doing some testing on the 27.300 the weekly chart I'm going to be here there's a chance I might have to change this to a leg F slash B in fact I'm going to do it right now so that you're prepared to say there could be a deeper pullback I just don't know yet so I'm putting it in as a caution why because you hit this now you're holding the 27.267 black 14 period exponential moving average the MACD has only just turned down it hasn't crossed negative and the stochastic is still at 90% there is still internal strength don't think that this is going to be easy I just don't think so okay let's go to the S&P S&P right now same thing daily sell mode it's trading at on the low today 3,070 the high was 3,354.26 just four days ago the E-mini let me go to the continuous contract the E-mini made a new high yesterday it made a new high of 3,158 is that a round number 3,158 round number high I discussed this when I sent out my my daily newsletter and I always show the E-mini in different weekly and 120-minute chart to show and saying let me show you right now what I did ESZ19 let's go to so that's an A right there and here's the 120-minute chart and this is what I said I think that we've made some kind of a short-term top 3,158 you've got this rectangle formation 3,155 round number high was right there around about the clock each on the 27th of November pulls back and then pops up and on the 2nd of December yesterday at the open what does it do it has an early morning rally and then it fails and then it tries to rally again and fails and it goes straight from a peak F 3,158 to today's low in the E-mini which is 3,069.50 this is in leg C to the downside in the 120-minute chart so you can see that rectangle pattern boom, you come down off the rectangle pattern at a high usually you start to come back quite sharp and then just give it a that cool like that ok, then you have something else within this context you've got the QQQ, 1,2,3 there we go gaps down has 206.05 as a high on the 27th just 4 sessions ago and kaboom 1,9923 is the low this morning very, look the magdies negative sacastics under 80% at 72% the price is way under the 14 period moving average it hasn't got to the 50 period moving average right here on the left side there's around about 197 so that's kind of a target for me on the short term but it just almost touched the weekly 9 period green 9 period 9 period moving average and you've got the magdies still good in the sacastics at 93% now one of the reasons we went short today the Dow we already short the SMHs for over a week about a week I think from the 25th one of the reasons is there were numerous patterns there was a Chappan Wave stalk leg formation there's the body look this is the stalk there's the leg, there's the body, there's the neck and there's the beak if the beak goes below the oval body and closes below that that's negative at some point you can get a rally that's a really sharp rally after the beak leg, body neck and beak so we went short right over there being short a little bit and now it's at 12833 we start shorting at 13322 will this work well we've got the dreaded H pattern what does that mean you come down in an H lower case H pattern test the left side 130.50 low and you just snap right through it today the weekly chart I drew that oval and not because it's a stalk leg formation because this pattern can vary if it's very short yeah it's just 5 bars it could very easily become an arch formation and that's what we're looking at but it's only peak seeing the monthly chart I'll be back there's a lot more to discuss and a ton of questions just remember no meet up tonight at MIT it's going to be postponed for a week next week we'll do the IBD and the BIG Investors Investment Group meet up that's a potluck a 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tfnn.com educating investors call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at 727-873-7618 folks we're back down one of the down 300 and 90 S&P's down 33 alright so I just wanted to finish up here the reason why I was focused on the semiconductor index and you can see that peak g unusual peak g although it turns out that the down the QQQ and IWM I believe I must check it out all my peak g's and methodology we had a 3 bar reversal starting on 15th of November and that was really interesting to see what happened because it pulled back sharply to one from 130 the high was 135 26 pulls back to 130 point 60 bounces up gets to just over 134 and then starts tumbling down so the reason why I focused on this is because the IWM sorry the SMH is the semiconductor Veneq Vectors ETF for the semiconductors it has all the stocks that are really important and this is the index that's led us up and it's led us down for years now and it seemed to me it was getting to me that we were also ready for some kind of a pullback let me just check here in the chapter we've automated remember how I discussed although I spent almost a whole segment on the resistance levels that's the reason why I was becoming so cautious and now I'm becoming a little bit more optimistic just intraday that there could be a bit of a bounce a lot of something's been taking place anybody with a wanted to sell would have done so by now and now the buyers are going to come in how does it last that's going to be the issue we're talking about yep one thirty point sixty six was the resistance it went right through that one twenty eight twenty is next we've already been through that to one twenty seven ninety two yeah this is going to be tough I think this is the same as they're going to take a bit of a breather here and that's going to be important if you look at the Dow INDU where's the support well there's no real support at this point mmm we were right through twenty seven thousand four eight four that'll now become some kind of if we can get there that'll be some kind of resistance and S&P S&P nothing there on the downside so there's more to go on the downside until such time as we start to see them show up QQQ nothing but the IWM does have at one hundred and sixty I believe I'm sorry 157 to 156 it's trading at one hundred and fifty nine seventeen right now let's see what happens now just quickly I want to go through this because I did say when I started the show that I thought there could be some kind of a counter trend balance yep you're seeing something here this is the ten minutes made a PD important PDs on the Chapman methodology right there the high was I think thirty one twenty one seventy five and we slumped down to three thousand and sixty nine gosh why I mean that sixty points so fifty points alright so now we're looking at a rectangle formation and if we can get to 30388 to 392 2092 I would say then you could start to get some kind of a some kind of a rebound that has some kind of legs that goes into the close rather than selling off into the close okay now we have to go through a couple of things here so that the TLT yesterday I said I had a lot of comments came in saying oh I what did we do about the bonds and I said you know what we just did a trading band and if you look at my chart that showed oh maybe I should show it because it was so important yesterday maybe it's just as important today and I said that in this mirror image here we go in this particular series of charts where we're looking at the 30 year the 10 year and the 5 year yields you've got to consider here we go that we're in a trading band and the trading band is between 2.443 24.43 and the upside in the 30 year and probably two points where did I say I think I said 1.98 on the downside something like that and there we are so it looked like oh my god I'm going to bounce and all of a sudden here we are we're back down and a lower low than yesterday so that's what's important but look at wood the ice shoes global and timber forestry this tells me you've got to be careful here this is a global timber and forestry ETF and it's it had a really good rebound but within a rectangle couldn't break out two arch formations lowercase M and now it's starting to pull back and the home builders went to a peak the HGX Philadelphia housing index at 362.82 the weekly chart I think that's going to pull back so this and not only that we go through a couple of things that the reasons why I want you to become somewhat negative close workspace save yes to all there we go is because of this look CTAS Sintas I see something's not right with this picture it goes to an all-time high 277.01 the week of the first of November peak G in the Chapman wave methodology on the 31st of October and then what happens Sintas corporation overalls uniforms rentals yeah I I'm still calling it only a peak B in the monthly but it's telling me that there's some kind of rotational correction going on somewhere because if overalls are uniforms are seeing a slow down and the earnings couldn't have been all that great you just got to think well a little mini recession in a pocket of the area one of the areas so just be somewhat careful look at this my cash index Sintas is for C Amazon is for A look at this Amazon is down 25 at 1756 peak D in the daily pulling back peak E in the monthly sorry the weekly at 2035.80 on the 12th of July all-time high of 2050.50 September of 2018 slumps to 30.07 now it's just going sideways this should be the best time I think it's getting a lot of competition for many of the others how about spy went to an all-time high on the 27th of 31 15.48 peak G again and on the days in a cell mode the weekly chart is still very good I'm still going to call it for now I'm just calling it this is still a weekly still a positive weekly let's see what happens if it closes under 303 at any point in the next three weeks that's a problem all right now we got so that's spy and Home Depot is the one that makes up the ancient cash cash index plummets 376 at 213 wow I wasn't at 239.31 this is 30 points I would say that's that's quite a pullback here in just a very brief time dreaded H pattern goes to a low case right leg down yeah be under right on the 200 period moving average under the pink 9 period moving average weekly charts under the support level this is just saying to me be careful just be very careful we need some kind of a consolidation and we starting to get it um so I've covered that oh crude oil crude oil look at this crude oil chart peak F peak F and the daily chart at 58.74 the continuous contract big ugly candle three days ago stuck in this little sideways move weekly charts in now I'm just stuck in a range between 58 and 52 um that's where I am I'm comfortable I'm not going anywhere that's where I am okay now we're going to get to answering your questions and um once again no meet up tonight for those of you who are interested in coming it'll be a postpone for a week it'll be next week the 10th of December at 6 30 MIT I'm not sure if it's the same room but I'll give you all that information in the next video since 1984 Basil Chapman found a new methodology to advise traders of his expert market opinion while originally hand drawing charts from the late 1970s into the 1980s Basil noticed that prices under most circumstances virtually always had a certain number of legs to the upside before declining sharply later Basil found that computer software which included the standard market technical indicators enhanced the degree of accuracy in calling price turns as well as market trend calls thus was born the Chapman wave sequence using the Chapman wave methodology along with other indicators Basil Chapman advises his subscribers of his expert market opinion each market day with his opening call newsletter right now you can get a 2 week free trial to the opening call Basil's daily trading newsletter by visiting the front page of 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guarantee don't miss out on this incredible new piece of software to get your copy of the art of timing the trade charts today by visiting tfnn.com this segment is brought to you by Think or Swim for more information just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of tfnn.com I want to go back so a couple of things here I want to look at so I had a question yesterday I just couldn't find the question I knew he had to ask me a question a couple of days ago and I remember saying to myself I don't have answered right away because it's not going anywhere but that still didn't mean I didn't want to answer the question I was just saying about and then I remember what the stock was and then he sent me a note saying TAVA pharmaceuticals TAVA trading at 10.25 down a penny only a penny so some of these biotechs have held really well a question in the den I'll get to in a moment about the IBB so TAVA trading look at this pattern it makes a doji candle at a peak F in the Chapman way but it also has a chance of an instant restart well you've taken too much time you know my rule 136 with a second 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 I don't see how it's going to break above 11 right now was that the hype was 10.99 it was 10.99 was the high on the 25th that's going to have to see something spectacular to suddenly break into the 11's at this point with a little bit more sideways consolidation if you're long I still like the weekly the weeklies in a buy mode it's gone to peak deeds wrestling now it's that monthly chart that's a real worry when you get a biotech with a very ugly monthly chart you just never know when it's going to try to test the previous lower gain so what I'm going to say to you is I can't remember exactly whether you were long or if you were looking for an entry point I always grab the outer limits of the candles and I drew a rectangle if that's what the price and that's exactly what it does it says hey I'm stuck in a range so that's the big outlook but I try to narrow the rectangle down as much as I can I say okay my border would be not the outer limit of 10.99 I want to come back where it showed a lot of resistance not even at the 200p moving average of 10.89 then 16.69 16.69 and the low here I'm going to go to this low normally I would actually now I'm going to go to this low right here and this is the low that I'm looking at so on a near-term basis 981 is the low and 10.60 is the high so in that context if you're I would love for this to pull back a little bit more break the rectangle make a dreaded H pattern lowercase HC down then you arch over you take out the left side low and try to get into this area of the 940 950 to 945 ish 940 somewhere in there and if the technicals in the week you're still holding well that would be a great time to start at least looking to enter if that's a fresh position if you and you want to save and you just say you know what's happening next all I can say is that it looks to me like it's digesting huge gains I mean when you're talking about going from just about 6 to just about 11 you know this is that that is a very big gain and it's almost a double so you've got to expect some kind of consolidation the fact that it couldn't continue up after the big red candle followed by a nice green candle and then it stalls without getting to the 200p moving amps just says to me on a quick trade I'd say double right now quick trade and if it starts to get towards 1050 raise your stop and just treat it as one day at a time but I'm thinking that the weekly chart pd and good technical says just needs a little bit more of a pullback maybe another week in time so a new position for a more intermediate term by I think I would hold off I just just risk reward in this market I just say it's acting very well on a short-term basis the weekly chart is improved but at pd you always know some as something can happen so I'm just going to say to you if you're looking at this because you've done your homework and you really like it then I'm going to say okay the nibble here at 1023 but you do have to have 964 for me that on a short-term basis that would just be too big too big a stop to have I would say nibble here if you can get a bounce just deal with it and just that's all you do you're nibbling it here and you're going to say the lowest I'm out if it goes today's low is 993 991 and I'm out I just say do that and get a feel for what's happening because it could go from an H to an M lower case M pattern another arch and then it could have a quick dip to the downside and I said that point does the magd and everything in the weekly chart suggest no we're making a turn that the monthly chart is even acknowledging but it's still this December so it's just earlier this month so that's the way to do it so that's the question I'm trying to cover both ways and the only thing I can say if you are in lower down you just want to know what you do to protect yourself I would say I like the position I would try to hold it if you're a little bit nervous just take a little bit off take a little bit off and that saves you from putting in a crazy stuff as you get taken out lower than you've lost that position and now you don't know what to do in your core position take a little bit off here and then let's deal with it let's talk about it again in the next few days it is an important stock is acting pretty well that's Teva next question I had IBB IBB is trading right in any calls now and this time I did check so we made a peak D in the IBB had a chapter with two bar reversal which says that if one of the key moving averages down below gets taken out this could become a deeper decline and that's at 117.28 and it's trading right now at 118.95 had a load today of 117.43 really nice action and the mag D is still very strong and the statistics at 94% on balance volume is good I think this is the area that's holding very well unlike the tax themselves the tax are really under pressure so let me just say don't what is the question that you in it do you envision IBB making a new high within one year yes I do 132.97 is the high of all time high December of 2018 and it's slumped in this 18 a year later it goes to 89.01 40 points I mean the third gets cut off gets cut down by a third and then raise some 89 to the high of almost 120 was 120.05 on the 29th I think so I think that whole aspect of the politicians and health care it's becoming a little bit more fuzzy which fuzzy is what the health care sector likes they don't want specific targeting and right now it's a little fuzzy I do think I've got a leg A in the weekly chart I would have thought that it would pull back more but it's holding well I do think that's a leg B and I wouldn't be surprised if it goes to a C and a D so January February is where I'd start to see IBB maybe making some kind of a top hope that answers your question next question I had was oh there we are okay oh GT wants to know about Boeing oh he's just mentioning Boeing is down yeah Boeing Boeing was trading at 375 349 down 10% it's not a big deal down 6 or 349 but I do think that everyone talking about this is F to say Boeing is going to get it right oh I have to tell you to get it right they're going to either rename the plane they have to go through a whole process you're going to have at least couple of months of really notables like the CEO of Boeing like the CEO of they made a general election you got to get really big names flying in the craft to say hey it's way everything's improved everything's good it's all wonderful self that's going to take a lot and that'll be close to the time when the hearings will start surely alright it does down 362 and I see the balance with the low and there's to be done if you're in the cd market and looking for a secure investment the Tiger first mortgage program may work for you the security for these first mortgages are building lots in the tax opportunity zone in st. 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sharp fallback I've done 18.5 to 5, 2, 6 and 3 quarters and yet with the dollar coming down soybean soybean even making a lower low yesterday and another with a big red candle I said don't take out the love yesterday when it's trading at 1.5 up at 8.72 we'll watch this real closely because yesterday the continuous contract was right there 8.67 and a half don't take out 8.67 that's going to be really that's a low case h pattern in the weekly chart and con con is trading not bad up half at 3.82 and a half so it's come off the low but it doesn't look great it's just better than the others now the next thing I want you to do is KC is coffee coffee is in a leg C I think it's still going to a leg D it still looks very strong coffee could go to this weekly chart is really good leg B I believe this is a buy mode for coffee yeah over the weekend over the Thanksgiving weekend I could tell in my house all the coffee drinkers they like to go to George Howell down the street I guess he's very good George Howell coffee anyway so yeah coffee is acting very well but the monthly chart looks terrible this is the first decent break to the upside so the weekly charts improved coffee is looking good at $123.30 I think it's going to the 125 and a half to 126 and a quarter area and then it might I had a couple other live cattle LC live cattle where did I put it do I type in the wrong place yep there it is at LC yeah I made a peak F I believe it's a peak F it's the same pattern we've seen in the others live cattle is pulling back wouldn't be surprised if it and I think I see this yesterday the traces of the 125-124 area is a 125 45 down 35 cents and then hogs LH whoa big candle yes three big candles big candle yes three days ago big candle yesterday three sessions ago and another big candle inside while this time I think it's trying to have a shake out it's trying to do something so far as doing nothing since you know I always think of this it's like a dog at the beach you know how dog goes into the water and then it comes out and people are just standing around talking there's this dog they don't even see the dog the next thing the dog shakes and it's the four legs are stuck in the sand and it's shaking away and everybody's getting soaking wet and the dog kind of looks up just walks off as if nothing had happened everybody's soaked that's kind of what we're seeing here big shake out does it continue lower at 68 67.95 up 1.80 if it closes under 60s continuous contract under 6540 tomorrow that is really bad if it closes in the next three days it doesn't close below yesterday's load but instead it goes over the high of the 29th Friday 69.325 that's the first decent turnaround candle it'll have had in the weekly chart for quite some time and I think I've done a lot there okay I wanted to talk about the question I had was XLI XLI this is the real industrial is always closer to the real industrial oh man did I not even oh there it is so CD instant restart this is a chapter instant restart right here look there's your D and within three bars it makes it breaks to a new high that becomes e slash a for now I'm calling it a because it goes a b c d and e d was already a down down arrow but it failed to look and held the 14 period moving average spiked a little higher and then it went to that inverted v-shaped cap it says yeah you might have got a cell signal but there was one more puck to the upside and that's it peak e and now it's pulling back sharply XLI what a big move from the 80 from the high 82s it to 79 26 today three points in just a couple of days but I think I have to call this fg I'm calling this a let me do this carefully 7713 7710 good that's why I wanted to do it my I said that's a peak and that's the same as the down oh I haven't discussed this I need to discuss this right now a b c not the same as the down this is gone to a leg e in the monthly who the XLI the S&P selects spider industrial fund has gone in the monthly chart to a leg e and a possible peak e if it's a sharp down I'm well I'll talk about that in a moment I just had one question I forgot to get to earlier is the XLF so this is a little unusual because once you get to a peak effort and you go to a G you cannot get an AC is no H it goes to a brand new a we have to go back and see the recycle so I pointed this out the other day that it was a chapter wave unconventional but I did it on one of the stocks but not the actually in not the ETF this is a chapter wave unconventional right here flat base restart so this goes to e a F B takes time and goes to one two three four five six seven eight nine ten eleven and then with the cup formation breaks to a new recovery high and goes to G C for now I'm just going to call it a C because we know it wasn't a G and yet you get your D and D is what we look for for a reversal and you've got that right here so the XLF has pulled back sharply today's down 56 cents why because the TLT is soaring as rates pull back and that says besides the other factors involved in the XLF it does like it kind of favors when the yields are going higher that's not the only thing but it is an important aspect and that's what you see right here so the question is where's the support level well the support level as far as I can tell first of all if there's 50 period exponential moving average right here at 29 but the green weekly 9 period moving average of 29.25 is going to be important on a closing basis if it closes below there's a real good chance you're going to test the 14 period moving average in the weekly chart at 2889 and that would take you out of your that would take you out of your uh notations so I just want to try to check something in here second here I just want to see it's important I check it right now um watching it I'm following it I'm following it okay so that's the XLF now so it's the same thing for instance our bank of America that we've had since the 24 screams up to 33.60 and within that context is pulling back is a 32.62 there's a rectangle that's what I was really thinking of so this is what I wanted to show you here's a rectangle formation you've I drew it in ages ago that's what I was looking at as a consolidation factor we'll see if that's going to be I'll talk a little bit more about it for the final segment I dozed out 376 thousand Chapman Tigers I'll be right back I'm certain you are or strive to be one of the best of the best at everything you do in life it's the most common trait that we Tigers and Tigers share if you're looking to become the best of the best when it comes to managing your money let me teach you to do what most wealth managers tell you can't be done which is how to time the markets I'm Steve Rhodes author of Mastering Probability and for the last 12 months timer digest has been tracking my newsletter signals which have earned me the ranking as their number one market timer in the nation for the S&P 500 for the last 12 6 and 3 months timer digest also 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them that's right page they ensure we receive all the nutrition we need to be healthy and thrive we take it and approved by Nico and page of living a primal lifestyle buy it today for just $89 click on the primal edge banner on the front page of TFNN.com Hi folks this is Steve Rhodes stay tuned for another great hour of the Trader's Edge heard here at TFNN.com I don't forget Steve Rhodes Dave White Tom O'Brien I'll be back with Tom later on and there is no IBD and BIG that's the Boston Investors Group meet up at MIT tonight where I was going to be the guest speaker it's postponed the same thing will happen but a week from tonight so the 10th of December is when I'll be doing a chair and Cambridge Mass over at MIT Massachusetts Institute of Technology room 376 well I'm not sure if the room yet will confirm it so it's not on tonight just too much slow everything's a little hazardous let's just quickly quick quick I want to know about SINA so SINA SINA core can't remember what they do but it made the dreaded H in the weekly chart I think it's improving and I think you've got your iron on something that could turn into a price what you really want to see at 38, 35, 13 is that over a period of maybe 6 to 8 weeks it fills this entire gap up to 42 once it does that that's fantastic but until it does that be a little careful so you're looking for an entry point let's still get it together I like the action now you know what I'm going to suggest because it's strong it's been strong for three days even though it hasn't closed over the 14 period moving average so Alan why don't you just start a position here 35, 13 the low today is 33, 75 so that's a big that's a big stop that you have to have so I'm not saying that I'm just saying start a small position and even the small position shouldn't have a stop of more than 60 cents I wouldn't put more than one and a half percent risk in this particular it's just a feeler position why because the magnitude you're right the technicals are starting to improve I wouldn't prefer to say let's wait a little bit to test the 3350 area but wow if it actually starts to move up here and invest to see something's moving up when everything's moving down it can move quickly so just a little nibble just to get a feeler position ok a couple of things the reason why we shorted the Dow is if you look at the look at Caterpillar my Dow Quartet Caterpillar look how ugly this is huge 148 down to today so 138 10 points in just a short while look at IBM's Lousy look at triple M triple M also big pullback look at UTX down down also 162 down today off the peak D so I'm looking at this and I'm saying it just needs a timeout and that's the way I'm looking at it we all shorted Dow shorted estimators I'm expecting some kind of a balance at some point because the moving averages are about to cross negative if there's still a little room for a balance