 This is covering the spread here are your hosts Jim Saunas and Dr. Ed Fang What is going on everybody welcome on into covering the spread? That's right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire dot com where today We are previewing the Kentucky Derby coming up at Churchill Bounce on Saturday by talking to Megan Divine of TVG and getting her Favorite bets for this year's Derby. My name is Jim Saunas I am a senior writer and analyst for number fiery.com joined here as always by dr. Ed Fang You can find his work over at the powerank.com and we have the draft starting Thursday continuing into Friday More drafts Saturday Kentucky Derby Saturday, too. It is a brilliant week for sports. How you doing today? I'm doing great. I'm really excited about the NFL draft all the drama that goes with it and Looking forward to seeing all the bets work out especially You know, I mean I'm interested to see who goes number three But right I didn't bet that and then I'm looking forward to see what what else happens Yeah, I've tried so hard to figure out what's happening at number three and I think it was like This morning I gave up like I was thinking about maybe I go Tray Lance for covering the future as my You know favorite bet for this week looked into it more and I was like I have no idea It was good money. It was plus three seventy at the time But like right I don't have a good enough read to put like actual Hard-earned dollars down on this one right now where things currently stand So I was like whatever. I'm gonna wait a day Let it play out see what happens because I just have no idea But that also means there's like this huge ripple effect where what happens at three dictates a lot of what happens elsewhere So it's kind of a pickle to say the least Yeah, for sure and some of the methods I'll talk about later Aggregating some mock drafts from experts. They seem to be dragging a little bit in terms of the quarterbacks I mean, I'm actually still as we're talking on Wednesday afternoon I'm still waiting for a couple of these mocks to come in and You know, like it seems like it's behind the news cycle and the entire news cycle is on these quarterbacks So, yeah, I'm definitely looking elsewhere for value there and we'll talk about that a little bit later Yeah, and it's it's gonna be a lot of fun If you are looking for some betting coverage of the draft during the draft will be live on air Thursday and Friday on the Fandal YouTube Twitch Facebook and Twitter pages to be myself JJ Zachary And Brandon Gadoula and our new hire Ryan Williams making his Fandal a number fire debut will be live Thursday 8 p.m. Eastern. I'll be focusing on the betting stuff. I have my win total projections all cooked up I'm gonna be talking about those some offensive line rankings as well Brandon will have his win total projectors We'll go ahead ahead a little bit and see how our models are comparing there Ryan's talking DFS and season long and of course JJ updating his projections for rookies live on air So a lot of good stuff a lot of reason to make sure you tune in Thursday That is 8 p.m. Eastern then also back on Friday for rounds two and three That'll be on the same places Fandal YouTube Twitch Facebook and Twitter and Ed you've gotten into betting the NFL draft Have you decided if you're gonna bet the Derby this year as well? I There's there hasn't been too much extra time this week, so probably not we'll see what Megan Devine says So I might just tell some of her her Opinions and if you didn't listen last year, I think it would have been September We had Megan on to preview last year's Kentucky Derby obviously Different schedule last year with COVID pushing the derby back and she did really well She was in on the person or the horse that person the horse that wound up winning So we're gonna talk to Megan get her thoughts on this year's field Make sure you follow her on Twitter at Megan Devine TV He she is a horse rating racing analyst at TVG also working for NBC at Churchill Downs this week She is a host of the horse racing happy hour Podcasts so a lot of places you can find Megan while the link to the horse racing happy hour podcast in the show Notes up on number fire calm to get set for Saturday's Kentucky Derby if you're looking for some NFL draft thoughts We already have those posted One with Matthew Friedman and one with Dr. Eric Eager getting their thoughts on the draft You can find both of those by searching for covering the spread wherever you get your podcast We are on Spotify Apple podcast Google podcast Stitcher you name it We're there if you like what you hear make sure you leave a rating and review as well We'll get to Megan in just a bit to break down this year's Kentucky Derby But first we got to go back to last week and talk some talladega because I did us NASCAR in covering the future last week Covering the past So last week's bet for me on covering that the future was in NASCAR talking talladega and Worked out pretty much exactly as planned at Kaz Brawler a plus 550 to finish top 10 in talladega He was priced near a bunch of cars with just terrible Non-competitive equipment, but his team has more speed than that talked about college racing potentially the cup series They did confirm just today that they will be going full-time in the cup series next year a team that has funding has Speed and they showed that on Sunday Gralla did exactly what I was hoping he would do we hung in the back early Staying out of trouble and that ensured he'd be around to make a late search And as he's shown in the past in lower series He has a talent to make a run at a place like talladega He did exactly that scooted through the field the final lap wound up finishing sixth So we do cashier a plus 550. I talked before about not loving non-outrights On super speedways because of the high variance there But I just thought the number here was super far off. So I was very willing to make exceptions take the plus 550 for top 10 I thought Gralla was a best bet on the board this week and it worked out two perfections So Kaz Gralla coming through for the cover of the spread of listeners this past week We're gonna talk to you Megan divine here in just one second But first Derby Saturday is almost here if you're new to horse racing or have never bet with TVG before now Is a perfect time to give it a shot because you can bet the Kentucky Derby risk-free that is right You get up to 20 dollar or $200 back if your horse doesn't win the Derby if you already have a TVG account You can get back up to $10 if your horse finishes in second or third place It's all part of the money-back special and it's available on select races this Saturday at Churchill bounce TVG gives you all the tools to tackle the Derby just sign up with the promo code cover That is promo code cover if you want to bet the Kentucky Derby risk-free Exclusively on TVG comm and the TVG app go to TVG comm slash cover for details and edit We can get you into horse racing by using our own promo code to bet the Derby this Saturday. How about that? Yeah, that sounds good, but there has to be a new account though, doesn't it? For the 201, but if you have a TVG account the right you can get 10 bucks back if they finish second or third So there's some wiggle room there for you at least that helps quite a bit So we'll figure out how to how Ed wants to bet this by talking to Megan Divine right now You can find her on Twitter at Megan Divine TV check her out on TVG and NBC and also on the horse racing happy hour podcast Let's get her thoughts to get set for Saturday at Churchill bounce Covering the present Let's head now to Churchill down to talk to Megan Divine about this year's Kentucky Derby Megan We had you live from Churchill downs last year. We are back there once again What's like for you to be back out at the the stomping grounds for the second time in just like a couple of months now It feels like yeah, thanks guys good to be back with you on the podcast as well And yeah, I have nobody's ever been to a Derby within like six months of each other You know, it's um or just eight months, but it's it's nice to be back It's it's nice that we can have racing here and you know a good amount of fans too They're obviously limited on their attendance But it it's Derby such a special time in the horse racing industry in sports in general and of course here to the city of Louisville So it kind of lacked that did lack that buzz last year, you know The city just kind of comes to life and and everything is electric every there's so much anticipation and excitement And so you kind of feel a little bit of that Now which is nice and as we get back to normal with everything it's it's just a good kind of homecoming feeling I guess in a lot of ways right is it is it back to like regular levels are still kind of like a 70% type thing where it's not quite the same buzz but getting closer to normal Mm-hmm. I mean attendance. I believe is limited at 20% at the racetrack So there is you know a small number of people here compared to what we're used to but I think we're all just so Desperate for normalcy. That's any little bit of buzz feels so it's very, you know, heartwarming Absolutely as it been that way for the entire lead-up to the derby too, because like there are other races obviously getting set for the derby Has it been similar to where it's been, you know a little bit odd But you know at least better than last year in that sense It definitely feels better to have people here for sure like you mentioned there are a lot of other races that go on leading up to the Kentucky Derby we have racing Tuesday Wednesday Thursday and Obviously Friday and Saturday are the big days So it is all racing all the time over here, so we're all very busy But it's nice to hear the fans cheering all the horses as I come down the stretch and as you probably just heard They just ran a race. I am currently at Churchill Downs You know, it's it's nice to have that that feeling back and to hear the people get excited about racing because We do love this sport and we love the animals So it's it's a good feeling and as a video person you get that sound back, which is what more could we ask for I don't have to cue it or anything. It's just happening. Exactly. This is perfect. Well, Megan We talked to you last year. It was kind of odd because we were talking to you September Obviously, it was very different that altered the prep work and the research you do to try to diagnose what will happen Is this year different now with the more normal schedule versus what we talked with you heading into last year from like an overall Like process perspective Yeah, I mean the main thing about last year, which the eventual winner authentic You know, he was a horse. They're all individuals. They're not robots They're not they are living breathing animals and we try very hard to make them happy and you know It's like a 26 hour a day job But you know, he was a horse a colt that was very mentally immature Had the derby been in May last year for him. He likely would not have won He was very talented And he showed that in a lot of his prep races that were early on in the year But he just I don't think would have been able to handle especially if there was, you know 100,000 people like a normal derby. He wouldn't have been able to handle all of those elements. I think so The fact that it was so late in the year. He was able to develop mentally develop physically He's a bigger horse. He was a bigger stronger version of the horse He would have been in the springtime. So, you know getting back to the normal derby time It's definitely the age of the horses that come into play You know the mentality that they have if you have a horse that's a little bit more of a late bloomer You're really going to struggle in a big spot like this. So it gets back to the normal handicapping I guess that we usually do For the Kentucky Derby and there's so many of those elements that go into it now this year Of course, there were still some cancellations due to COVID due to weather In Arkansas where a lot of these horses have their prep races the southwest stakes Which is a Kentucky Derby prep race is was pushed back weeks and weeks and weeks and weeks So, you know, there was that aspect of it too and that they They weren't able to stick on the same schedule as they would have liked to which which may have You know made things complicated for a few horses. Keep me in mind being one of those Excellent. So there were a bunch of Kentucky Derby prep races from February through April and a lot of horses in this field race there How much weight do you put on those results when you're trying to figure out who's going to win at church held down? Well, I mean you certainly want to look at How those horses have performs in the prep races because those are or should be right the upper echelon Of sorts, but not every Kentucky Derby prep races created equally. There are certainly different variations of fields You know, you might have some races that are harder than others as far as the the talent level goes On my podcast the horse racing happy hour, which we do weekly We kind of have our own grading system as we call it So big races in the u.s. Are considered graded stakes You have grade one which is the top grade two just below that then grade three and then a listed stakes race And that is decided by a committee. There's a graded stakes committee that You know every year every couple of years decides which races are grade one grade two, etc And so they kind of stay like that for a while But they may not always live up to that title And so something that we try to do throughout the year is to say, okay Well, this is technically a grade one But how did it really measure up as far as the talents of that field? And so if you kind of can follow along with some of these horses and figure out, okay This horse finished second. What did it do after that in that race? How tough was that competition? It kind of gives you a lot more of an understanding of the credentials and the potential talent of the eventual winner Or the contenders of that particular Kentucky Derby prep race So one thing I try to do with like NASCAR betting is try to identify like similar races and look at those and Put more weight on those if you were to identify Prep races that you determined to be most relevant for obviously, it's not the same field But like if you were looking for the most relevant ones people should look at which ones stand out to you as being the best parallels for saturday I mean historically the florida derby and in the races in california as well The sanita derby have produced the most kentucky derby winners at least of of late Arkansas derby winner would have been american faro, of course But there really haven't been there's been a lot of very talented horses that have come through that path But there haven't been a lot of kentucky derby winners So, um, you know, I would say probably the florida derby and uh, and the sanita races But this year in particular, you know known agenda is the horse that won the florida derby and he's for todd pletcher He certainly looks to be a contender But I don't know that he's at the top of my list because I didn't feel like the The florida derby was as salty as I would have liked it to be in 2021 And then in california as well rock your world who won the uh, sanita derby Is a horse that originally started his career on turf and then switched over to the dirt Which is not something that we often see with a lot of these classic distance Dirt type of horses. So, you know, we'll see if that race ended up being like I said upgrade one caliber as well Okay, this is the perfect context to get I love that you're giving this. Thank you so much. That's perfect now another important Component you talked about last year specifically with the winner was the post positions And you thought that you know the the post kit play a large role in how you want to diagnose things Those were released on tuesday for this year's derby. Yeah What impact those have on betting for you and did did the draw there alter anything for your view of any of the horses here Uh, it definitely has a big impact. I mean, it depends on your type of horse if you are a horse that That is able to um, you know, kind of sit back and and uh, save some ground You might not necessarily need to have a position where you have to go up there early Now it is different too because they they're using a different starting gates this year than they have in years past Um, previously there were two gates that they use The vane gate and then an auxiliary gate that was a little shorter And there were two things here that are important to note one. There was a little bit of a gap between those two and then the horse that was in the one position If you looked out that starting stall you would run into the rail Like you had to get out there go to the side and then go forward So, I mean you had no choice but to really go forward because if you didn't now you've got a wall of 19 horses that are going to come over and totally screw things up for you So, you know, you had to to definitely think about what your horse's pace was preferred pace was And then you had to say, okay, where could we go from here? So now they're using a new starting gate that it's set up a little bit differently It's all one solid gate So you may not have that same issue as far as the one hole is concerned with the auxiliary gate But there's also some differences with that too with the way it closes with the size of the stalls They're a little bit smaller. They got it from Europe where they do things differently. So there's a lot of question marks going into this year So you've been at Churchill Bounds this week. Uh, you're there last week as well Have you been able to pick up anything from uh, just catching these personality of these horses? And then also, how would you like how would you wait like these types of observations versus the race results we talked about earlier? Um, it's definitely something that uh, that I place a lot of credence on. I mean, I being a horse person myself I've ridden horses for over 20 years and um, all types of different horses show horses for the most part But I did gallop race horses for a little while Um, and you know, you want to make sure that the horse that you are interested in is handling things well That they are kind of taking everything in stride. They're very professional. They're very workman-like as they go about Their training leading up into the race and schooling in the paddock and how do they deal with the crowd And how are they during the morning works? How are they with the weather if it's really hot or cold? So there's a lot of those kind of things that are hard to quantify per se That I think go into To deciding if this horse is going to be able to perform when it comes down to to game time Like I said, they're they are individuals, you know, you mentioned NASCAR I guess it would be kind of the same thing as like Say a driver that gets nervous or something I don't know or isn't able to handle the pressure or the heat or whatever. It's kind of the same thing, you know, so it's very You have to to take all of those in stride and I tend to I like to watch the the workouts of the horses I like to watch them school midnight bourbon has gotten loose on the back side He got away from his handler the other day He was acting up in the paddock as well So he was a little bit of a bad actor We're hoping he kind of relaxes as we look towards the race and um I don't think there's anybody else that's been too terribly keen in any way But you definitely notice the ones that are that are professionals. Okay Maybe the best Yeah, and you have midnight bourbon and you have um bourbonic as well. So if you're looking for a bourbon exact That's your drink. That's your play This is my kind of bet. I like this. This is perfect So let's talk about some more individual horses here because the central quality is a favorite there are two to one and Then there's a decent gap back to rock your world who you mentioned. Uh, it's done well in the prep races Let's talk about essential quality first. Do you think that they are deserving of the super short odds of two to one? I mean, this is a horse that's undefeated. So yes Don't make me wrong, you know, he has he has passed every test that um that he has been given with absolute flying colors and You know the the one thing I guess that people are saying and this goes back to our earlier conversation is that Okay, he won the blue grass stakes coming into this race But how how tough was that field really highly motivated was a tough horse He's also in the derby and they went head to head down the lane But it was pretty much those two horses and then everybody else So, you know, was that race good enough were the numbers he ran and that race good enough to say he should Win with ease, you know as the favoritism implies Um, but still he is undefeated nine horses have exited the kentucky derby undefeated He's hoping to add himself to that list. Um, he's got to turn back around here at about three or four weeks Which is normal for a horse, but one must wonder as well You know, how tough was it that he really dueled with highly motivated? How much did that take out of him to now turn around and you know run another marathon? So to say if you had just done that a couple weeks before are you going to really be at the top of your game even higher? You know in that amount of time. So I think he's he's certainly um deserving of being the favorite He's handled everything very professionally this week and to see him up close and personal The trainer brad cox is really excited about him. He's schooled great So, um, he he's definitely a horse that I'm looking at at the top spot, but Uh, you know, you you certainly if you're looking to make some money Especially with your wagers depending on what kind of a bet you want to do If you want to play any exact as if you want to key a horse trifecta, etc Superfect to some people like, um, you know, maybe you you single in your pick threes pick fours Whatever There are some other horses that you might want to look at and and I'm going to try to take a shot With a few long shots including keep me in mind midnight bourbon being one of those who I thought has worked really well And had some good excuses and then um, man the loon as well The other brad cox horse in there is is one that I am interested in I talked to brad cox this morning about his last race where he just ran an absolute clunker And he he said I I couldn't figure it out. They're just there's no rhyme or reason for how bad that horse ran that day It's not him and just kind of if you can excuse it and hope that we're going to see the horse that we had seen previously Cool. So you talked about a bunch of uh long shots You skipped over all the other horses that are 10 to 1 So let's talk about them. There's rock your world of five to one known agenda Six to one hot rod charlie man awesome names this year Yeah highly motivated 10 to 1 so, um, I mean clearly you didn't mention these as your value picks, but uh any insights on these four guys I mean highly highly motivated as a horse that like I said, he went head to head with essential quality So in a case in a sense if you like essential quality, you kind of have to like highly motivated, right? The other thing about it is these horses are still young. They're three years old horses live until they're into their 20s So these are like, you know teenagers if you will And so we're expecting a lot of them at a very young age And there's still a lot of development that's going on. So a horse like highly motivated He's trained by chad brown who has never won a kentucky derby But he has won multiple training titles as far as our like year end awards go He's had many many good horses breeders cup winners. You mentioned it. He's always a top trainer and his horse highly motivated The time that he ran in the blue grass stakes was actually only the First time I believe first or second time that the horse had gone a route of ground being a longer distance So he started off sprinting and then they stretched out the distance with him and saw how he could handle that And now he's going to run the longest distance of his career and possibly he will ever run With a mile and a quarter for all of these horses. They've never run a mile and a quarter before This is the first time so it's also a litmus test as far as the stamina goes for these horses And you know, you have to kind of take the performance that highly motivated put in in the blue grass and say Okay, is that the best it's going to get for him? Or is that just a stepping stone for him to improve off of that? The first time is always a question mark. So I kind of took it as Chad brown knows how to develop his horses This horse decide, you know, they they pushed him to go long And I think he can probably go even further based off of what he's shown And also based off of bloodlines and breeding, which is a huge thing in our industry Yeah, absolutely So let's go back to the long shots you'd mentioned there because I thought that there were some interesting ones there Keep me in mind is 50 to 1 midnight bourbon 20 to 1. Who is your favorite of the long shot of the long shots? Yeah, and what puts you on that specific horse? Yeah, um, I mean, I definitely think that That keep me in mind is an exciting horse because he Horses when they win their first race, we call it they breaking their maiden So he typically you have races that are specifically for maiden horses, right? Maiden speculator and maiden claiming race you win that race then you get to go to the next level So it's either a claiming race the lounge race stakes race, whatever And so he actually was a horse that they had enough confidence in him that he still he ran a race or two And he didn't win so he didn't break his maiden. They're like, you know what screw it We're going to enter him in a grade two Which is the second highest level that we have in our industry here at Churchill Downs at the end of last year And he won that race So he actually broke his maiden in a graded stakes race Which is I mean a hard thing to do not a lot of horses can do that So one he showed that he had a lot of talent the talent that they the connections believed he had and had not yet shown And two is that he already likes this track which Churchill Downs can be kind of a tough track for some horses You either like it or you don't and that's the case of a lot of different tracks So the fact that he's shown some affinity over this surface. I think is really um a good thing to note He worked very very well last time So his final preparation for the Kentucky Derby. I thought was visually very impressive He's got such a massive stride. He covers a lot of ground. He seemed to be a horse that Mentally checked all the boxes for me as well. They are actually making an equipment change with him So they're taking the blinkers off, which is something important to note because he You know may not be able to see his competition or he might be a little too keen doing too much early in the race And for a horse like him who's a hard closer. He comes running towards the end You know, you have to leave something for the end of the race So the fact that they're taking those blinkers off to keep him a little bit more relaxed I think is a positive move and two works back as well The exercise rider worked him and he went a little too fast and wasn't able to finish up nicely But this last work his jockey David Cohen actually flew in To to Kentucky from Arkansas where he's finishing out the meet there to work this horse and a couple of others Got on a plane flew back to Arkansas that same morning to be there for the racism And what a stakes race So, I mean he he liked this horse. He he was committed to being here, you know For the preparation for keeping me in mind and like I said just the visual impression for me as he Was breezing over this track the other morning. I thought man, that's a serious horse since for a long shot I mean, I'll take it if it's it, you know comes in third fourth You want to include in your superfecta whatever across the board bet who doesn't love those for the kutucky derby So I'm trying to look for some of those bigger prices That is the information that has gotten megan divine like 16 different jobs in the horse racing industry I need to stop the information on time for it. No, this is great. This is fantastic. Like that's the context we want That's the context we signed up for we appreciate it So that's why vid horse is so valuable and all that stuff. So megan that was fantastic Thank you so much for swinging by for today and breaking down the kutucky derby But also just like have fun this week. Enjoy having fans there again Enjoy being at the track and enjoy watching some racing. We appreciate you taking some time to talk to us during that time Yeah, guys, thanks so much. I hope you enjoyed as well. Hopefully we gave you some good insight And you'll have to tell me if you hit a winner there As uh a saturday comes along awesome. Thank you so much. I appreciate it Covering the future One final big thank you to megan divine for swinging by and breaking down this week's kutucky derby again Make sure you follow megan on twitter at megan divine tv Check her out on the horse racing happy hour the link to that is up on the number fire show notes And also, uh, check out her work over at tvg and nbc Let's move now into covering the future for this weekend and we want to talk more draft You've got a draft prop you like i've got one I like to close up shop here for our final bets for the nfl draft and you look at the board right now Where are you seeing some lingering value? Yeah, so I talked to a little bit uh last week about how kind of so everything i'm doing is is based on what is Wisdom of crowds and and benjamin robinson has put this grinding the mocks Uh tool together and it simply aggregates mock drafts. Um from a wide variety of sources And that tool turns out to be kind of better for later first round picks Um, but it turns out that experts are are better for earlier picks top tenish type picks, um, so What i've done is i've i've taken some of the experts They're they're all included in benjamin's thing, but i've been able to kind of go to a couple sources and look how these people have done over the last three years I'm put together 14 people that that I think um have some insight and a variety of insights to So, uh, so that'll give me a more of a sense of what I think is going to happen in the top 10 And uh, the one player that really stood out was patrick scherzhan the cornerback from alabama. He's considered a high floor prospect Um, it should be the first cornerback off the board. Uh, but You know, there's a couple there's a couple other cornerbacks that that are cable failure is one that's considered kind of more potentially high ceiling type guy, of course I think he just had back surgery recently, which is uh kind of tanked his drafts slot But so when you look at these 14, uh Expert mock drafts that i've kind of put together 11 11 of them have sertan go into dalas at the 10th pick So that's kind of the the wisdom of kraut's consensus there. Uh, one of them has them going before I think, uh, Eight the eight and the nine spot are also potential landing spots for him Two mock drafts do have sertan going after the 10th pick, uh, but these are two of the earlier ones in my data set And in fact, at least one of them i'm waiting on an update From that person. So, you know, that does suggest a lot of value in, uh, sertan going under 10 and a half. Um, there's a So I like that it's one minus 159 of draft kings right now. Uh, the price is worse at vandal Which just often seems to be the case. So don't cheer and just gotta be less sharp. Help us out, man So, yeah, no, I thought that was interesting, you know, the wisdom of kraut certainly thinks that, you know It's unlikely that it falls below dalas. Uh dalas certainly could use some more help in the secondary Uh, which was not good last year. So, um, yes, patrick's hand under 10 and a half And I think everything that I've heard about the dalas pick specifically is said if he's there, he's gone Like they're taking him. Well, I mean that without a second thought and like the mocks reflect that Based on what you're seeing and it goes back to what we talked about with matty freedman where Sometimes these more certain things are not juiced up enough to where they should be And 159 seems like it's not enough based on the experts what they're saying based on also just like logic for the cowboys Given how good that offense could be if their offensive line is healthy next year Why wouldn't they go defense, especially as someone like you said who who's perceived to be as high of a floor of a guy As sartan is so I think that makes a lot of sense and based on You know just reading whatever one has said It does seem like sartan a certain thing to go in the top 10 So I like that as well and as I said make sure you shop around because you can uh, make sure you're getting the best number There are a wide ranging numbers on these draft props Uh, but the sartan one is that the one you feel best about among the best the bets you made? Oh, I think so. I mean nodgie harris is kind of moved from 30 and a half to 25 and a half You know a draft king's what I bet I talked about that last week. So probably no more value there Um, you know, there's a couple other ones, uh that I like as well But what I what I like the most gym Is seeing these market price move rapidly everywhere even the ones that i'm not betting and like we talked about last week That's a signal that you know the bookmakers Struggle to put out opening lines, right? Yeah, and it's been interesting. You know, you've seen all these books put out New bets every day this week, right? Yeah. So, you know, there's some head-to-head ones over at vandal That I haven't quite finished my analysis on Before we jumped on here, but those those look pretty interesting as well So, you know, I think the strategy is like, you know, find a tool find find a like a grinding the mox Um Do some analysis and and don't think about it too much. Just just bet it because it's probably moving fast Well, yeah, we talked about the jail and waddle divante smith one last week with dr. Eric eager I think it was like Pretty it wasn't it wasn't quite even money by that point waddle and itched ahead But now waddle is minus 310 to go ahead of divante smith at vandal So things do move fast for sure. So if you like something bet it and Hope you get some closing line value there now you talked about just let me stop you real quick So waddle is only ahead of divante smith and seven of the 14 experts. So maybe there's value on divante smith plus 164 Uh, yeah, I'm thinking about it. I mean, that's that's what the mox say. I mean, I'm I'm still waiting on two updates a little bit later today, um Which is also the fun of this, right? I know, right? You know places publishing their last mock drafts, uh, you know, you know, even someone that, uh Uh, mackey fridman talked about Um, so it's a jeremiah Yeah, I I last I checked which was a couple hours ago. His last mock was not yet up and he was thinking about Submitting it. I was looking for him earlier too. So we are, uh, We're tilting the same thing here. We're googling the same things. I guarantee you that Exactly. I want to talk published. It should certainly be up. You would hope you would hope, uh, but daniel jeremiah a busy guy so I think they are going to take an offensive lineman in the first round, which is plus 165 at fandals sports book All the smoke thus far has been around a running back and that could happen like kevin colbert their gm said literally He's good taking a running back in the first round. He said it flat out They said if they can get a playmaker or a contributor, they don't care a position. They are he said that I acknowledge that they could go running back I just don't know whether the talk is a smoke screen or not And to be clear, they're going to go running back early whether it's the the first or around second round, etc I just don't based on the data i'm looking at. I don't think it'll be With the first pick, especially because their offensive line is so bad I've cooked up some very rudimentary offensive line rankings to use for our live stream thursday night It's based on player production the value of each position and stuff like that and when I run those rudimentary rankings The sealers ranked 29th in the league in the offensive line rankings. They have lost their left tackle Their left guard and their center to free agency this year They've got some guys they can move around and try to patch those holes internally, but It looks like a pretty much a dumpster fire out there That's also a good spot to pick an offensive lineman Uh based on where things stack up in the draft right now if you go to the athletic and check out Arif Hassan's consensus big board the they have lineman ranked 15th 16th and 21st The sealers ranked 24th or they picked 24th Those could all be gone those guys in that range in which case the value the spec goes down But there are some linemen in the 30s who may be undervalued by the consensus big board Kevin Colbert has been there gm since 2000. So we actually have a lot of good data on his draft tendencies and I know the stealers sometimes can be Laughed at for certain things specifically the Ben Roberts burger stuff last year the way things collapse, but They seem to value high value positions At high picks in the NFL draft the past five drafts They've had 16 picks in the top three rounds Five have been quarterbacks or wide receivers four have been cornerbacks Only one offensive lineman, but they've had such a good offensive line there They haven't really needed to address that position. That's no longer the case I do believe they will go running back at some point very early, especially if they can get One of the top three guys, but a plus 165 I think there's value in betting them taking offensive linemen with their first pick now adam guessing The expert mocks are not going to like this one because I've seen every mock seems to have them taking a running back However, when you pair that with nagi harris's total still being over 24 I feel like it's not a lot. They go running back yet So what did the what does your database say about the stealers pick at 24? Well, our guy evan silva has the stealers taking lane and dickerson, uh, the alabama offensive linemen So who can do cartwheels like three weeks? There are three months after getting a cl surgery. Love it. He's great So evan evan's on your side, uh, the rest of them, uh, not so much, but yeah, we'll see how it goes Is it mostly split between just offensive linemen and running backs? I mean, there's a lot of running backs. I mean, there's a new one, uh, with jimonte billiams there Which was someone that dr. Eric you were mentioned last week. Um There's a kaleb farley in there the cornerback that we discussed earlier So yeah, there's a there's a variety. There's an edge rusher in here as well I think the good thing is if you feel strongly that they go running back, which again, I don't Uh, that's also plus 130 like it is plus money as well if andrew sportsbook I don't think it's a guarantee. They take one or the other. Otherwise, I just said just Bet the maximum both and lock in a profit, but I don't think that's a certainty I think the best value here in the best way to attack this is going offensive line Plus 165 just the way things shape up with their offensive line. It's a really hideous unit right now I think I have I have some respect for their front office with the way they've handled things in the past And as a result that I have faith they will do the right thing and take an offensive lineman In the first round, we'll see how things play out on thursday as mentioned. We're back here again Talking nfl draft on thursday apm on the fangirl youtube twitch Facebook and twitter pages will be talking about these draft props throughout the night also dfs and season long stuff So make sure you are subscribed over there and tune in on thursday apm and friday at 7 p.m To get the betting a dfs and season long implications of this year's draft ed You were talking about emailing out stuff from your database out to your subscribers and people are Interested in the findings you've had based on your research. Where can they find that data? Yeah, I'll I'll post it on the I'll post it on my site on my blog a little bit later that email The email is already out. So I'll I'll post it over on the blog by the time this gets out So you can check out, you know one through 32 what the experts are saying Okay, that's over at the power rank dot com anything else for you cooking up this week So I have an awesome episode of the football analytic show I talked to matt wallman who's the creator of the rookie scouting portfolio and this man spends our hundreds of hours scouting quarterbacks receivers and running backs and puts all that information in this rookie scouting portfolio So it's a great resource. He was a great interview Gave some awesome stories about how he started This whole project by locking himself in a hotel room for a week And also some awesome stories about The important people in the nfl that that read his his product So have matt wallman on the football analytics show. Please check it out Check out the the mock stuff ed was talking about over the power rank dot com also check out the football analytics show I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s ed is on twitter at the power rank You can also follow the fan to a podcast network at fan to a podcast big Thank you once again to megan divine for swinging by and breaking down this year's kentucky derby check her out on twitter at megan divine tv Also, check out her work at tvg nvc and the horse racing happy hour podcast Thank you to calvin theobald our video producer for running the video side of things here today Thank you cal as always and thank you to everyone for tuning in good luck to you with your kentucky derby and nfl draft bets Going to be a fun week. We'll talk to you once again next week This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network