 Welcome to this week's weekly charting analysis webinar where we will discuss some of the important charts and fundamental events taking place in the markets this week. So for any of you trading the UK 100 or just maybe not even trading but watching some of the media today you're hearing talk of us getting close to all time highs. So what we had here is an interesting one and just highlights some of the differences you can get sometimes because our pricing is derived from futures markets on the FTSE 100 and then you obviously have the cash price which is what's quoted by the business media during the day and so here was the last kind of official closing price on Friday which was kind of down in and around these multi-year high levels but then we got a bit of ramp up after hours and we subsequently sort of ramped up and dropped down again and so we saw some higher prices early on today but we've kind of just been dropping back namely just because HSBC reported some disappointing results and HSBC makes up a good chunk of the FTSE 100. The FTSE 100 is mostly comprised of banks and miners and all companies. They may got the bulk of the volume there which is why the index part of the reason why index has underperformed those in America and the rest of Europe because those sectors have not really been faring too well since the financial crisis banks which is getting slammed with fines. You know this latest one that hit HSBC related to the Forex rigging scandal and they won't be the only ones for sure and so that's why we've got disappointing banking results and obviously this slide in commodity prices is not too good for the mining companies. If we pull out the daily chart we can see here that we kind of popped higher on Friday most of which was in the sort of after hours trading. And today which was up above at some point the cash price was trading above our all-time closing high which is about $6,930 in change. And then the all-time intraday high which happened during normal trading hours for the cash index is $6,950. So that's the one to sort of keep an eye on in terms of sort of widely thought of as the all-time high in the FTSE 100 and it's something to take in mind when you're trading this UK 100 product that we offer which tracks the futures in the FTSE 100. So you know why is that taking place? Basically because of quantitative easing in the Eurozone. If you've been watching these webinars for a while we've been saying really even though the UK economy is improving looking at the FTSE 100 for the reasons I mentioned before there's a lot of reasons to hold this index down as there are fundamentally in terms of the economy for a lot of the European indices the only things we're really going to push them up to new or some highs is if they put out a quantitative easing program that matches that done in the US and that's really exactly what we're seeing right now. There's no coincidence that the FTSE 100 is pushing into its all-time highs just as quantitative easing is about to begin next month. The timing is not coincidental. That's really the biggest driver here. Obviously what pushed us above on Friday was that we did have some solid signs of an agreement over the Greek deal and obviously that's what's been pushing European markets around a lot. That you can see better in the German DAX as we traded the Germany 30 and got on a pretty short timeframe chart there. But you can see we had that pushed through 11,000 quite dramatically on Friday and we're just pulling back a bit again today. There's not too much in the way of economic data and the data that we have had was the German iPhone, the sort of business sentiment survey comes out once a month and it was slightly ahead in expectations and current conditions but just not as much as expected and it's just a little bit disappointing. Numbers were below forecast and as I said there's not – we had quite a strong rally last week in general and on Friday especially on that sort of Greek agreement news and obviously Monday we're getting a few more headlines out about there are still some disagreements and it's still not 100% that the other Eurogroup finance ministers are going to accept these conditions that Greece are willing to have on the extension of their bailouts, namely sort of structural and economic reforms. A big sticking point has been the amount that Greece have to keep in the budget surplus, so government receipts, how much the government gets in versus how much the government spends. It's meant to have money, three percent more money left over when those two are netted out and in terms of the government helping to stimulate the economy in times of massive unemployment that's pretty difficult. There's basically a sterility right there and so the sticking point is whether that three percent holds as Germany would like or in fact it drops close to 1.5% which is what Cyprus and Verifakis, the prime minister and finance minister in Greece, that's what they're pushing for and they could use that 1.5% to plug into the Greek economy and hopefully stir things up and get things going again. So still very much the Greek news and picture, you can see here on this chart that the 11,000 is the big round number, the currency easing is about to kick in, unless we see some sort of dramatic fall apart of these agreements, there's a good chance that 11,000 can hold again as some kind of support and you maybe have, depending on how long it takes for us to get down there, this is kind of like the breakout here, you see the open up there, test back into that kind of break and so we could dip down towards that 21 day moving average again. To me just above there, I think that's quite good value if we get down there and then you've got the risk below this low, probably a break through this trend line I think would maybe indicate that we've gone a bit too far, too soon and then we could even push back down to the 55 again. But for now you can see we held it three times, we've been holding above all these days that you see here when the Greek bailout talks were kind of fluctuating up and down, you can see markers really didn't go too far. The base was about 10,550 with a top of 11,000. So even as things, there was talk of a Grexit really heavily being on the table, markets never really priced that in and you can see there's just, there is no real interest with QE about to come out in a major dip right now, even with over the last few weeks we've had news out of Ukraine and there was a ceasefire, now the ceasefire is looking a bit dubious, there's still fighting going on over there, but nevertheless even that is not holding down the Germany 30. So I think good probability that this former resistance holds us support but if not obviously we have to open up the idea that it can drop down further again but to me that's the base case and I am looking at the way the markets behaved during this fairly tumultuous news period. I did mention before but obviously any questions over any particular markets you're interested in certainly feel free to just send me a quick message through and I will cover those. So we've got into the UK 100, the Germany 30. Let's have a look at the US major benchmarks. Not much news going on in the US at the moment. Basically there isn't any news really today. We've got a bit of housing data but the housing data has been so choppy. There's basically a choppy housing recovery going on in the US. Nothing like as impressive as what's been happening in the UK and that data is we take it or leave it to be honest. It'll maybe move prices a little bit on the day. It's not going to give you too much of a picture of what's going on in my opinion. The big one this week probably for marketing as a whole maybe does shift away a little bit from Europe, especially if some deals can be come to today, then really tomorrow it's going to be all about Janet Yellen's testimony to the Senate Banking Committee. That's really the big one just because it's the first day. It's fairly unusual that on the second day that she would then come out with something really market-moving that she wouldn't have said in the first meeting. Tomorrow is going to be the big one. What we're really looking for is just some sort of idea as to whether the more dovish tones that we heard from the last Fed statement which referenced international concerns. There was a paragraph in there that basically stated along the lines majority of members since that there was a sort of risk to raising rates too soon that the tendency was to want to hold rates in a zero bound for longer. That was the big one. No real signs yet of sort of pulling out the patient's wording from the Fed statement. Whether Janet Yellen comes out today and confirms the more dovish tones or actually strikes them a hawkish stance, which is the way the Fed has been in the last few meetings, that will definitely have some impact on US markets today. Obviously all these markets are interrelated. We did see, as you can see on our charts here, new all-time highs in the US 30 on Friday. The Dow Jones industrial average has been underperforming the S&P a little bit recently. So if we look at our US 30 chart, then what we can also do is, well just for the fun of using some of the different tools that we have in the platform, let's drag in the S&P 500. You can see that obviously the markets are pretty well correlated here, but you can see the S&P 500 has been actually pushing ahead a bit. Some of these more blue-chip names like McDonald's and the likes have not been faring so well, whereas some of the more growth-type companies have actually been outperforming so that wider benchmark the S&P has been doing better. We actually saw three record highs last week in the S&P 500, just one on Friday for the Dow Jones industrial average. Nonetheless, both are all-time highs. We're basically on the cusp, potentially, of a breakout of this trading range that we spent the duration of December, January, and three quarters of February. Now we're kind of setting up quite well for continuation high. This is a strong bullish and golfing candlestick that we saw on the DAX. It didn't come at the bottom of the downtrend, which is kind of ideally what you want to see as a reversal signal, but it did come within an uptrend, so not necessarily going to catalyse such a large move, but it's in the direction of the trend. Then what we could be looking at is the top of that breakout candle or perhaps the open and at the very worst, the low of that bullish and golfing as some kind of interim areas of support should we get a bigger pullback. We saw here just a little breakout and then dropped back into the range. There is some scope that there's just a kind of a bit of a wedge going on perhaps and that we don't get too much higher and dip down again, so be aware of that possibility. I think while we're trading and making new highs, you've got to assume it's an uptrend and just look for the potential. Looking at that, it's a very bullish pattern. If that gets undone and we see a move below that, obviously we're a lot lower prices at that point and if you really want to fine tune your timing, you can wait for a little short-term bounce on the lower timeframes, but really some kind of move below there is a big bearish signal because basically that bullish signal has been undone, so there's obviously some more stronger bearish forces in the market and it would just be an indication that actually we haven't made it probably out of the range yet. This was obviously on a daily basis, but because it was a Friday, it made it on a weekly basis too, which adds some strength to it. If I just cut the S&P out of there again, we can switch and see that on the weekly chart. While we are talking about indices, we've got a question on the Norway 25 here. Let's just pull that one up. Obviously the big driving force of the Nokia currency and the Norwegian index has been all prices such a large compartment of the Norwegian economy, but we've got to also keep in mind that Norway is a big trading partner of Europe, so if the Eurozone economy improves, that is a positive for Norway, but if we see a continuing weakening of the Euro, that benefits European exporters to the detriment of Norwegian exporters, and so that makes competition with the local economy that much trickier. But I think similar to the UK 100, even though Norway is not a direct beneficiary of quantitative easing, it's a sort of indirect beneficiary. Some of that 60 billion in euros being flooded into the market each month is going to make its way across the borders, not even just inside Europe, but probably a little bit to Asia, definitely to the US, given the outperformance of those markets in the past few years, and I think what we're seeing in this chart here, we're going to sort of break out of this line. It looks a bit clear on the weekly chart. You can use an example of perhaps closes a little bit nicer. You can see, I don't know if this line kind of, memory serves. I think this one was it. No, it doesn't work that well, was it? That one. This is one of those cases where, you know, you just end up finding a spot that works, and so that's the nature of trend lines. You just look around for one that fits. I think probably the best was really just having that as a general floor in prices, which kind of just flat around 480, and we just hold that a couple of times and we've had strong moves, a big solid breakthrough that declining trend line. I think there's some scope for a move back towards the trend line again. Perhaps even, you know, perhaps even shake a few weaker longs out of the market with a dip down to this kind of breakout area that we saw here, and that would be a confluence of support from these broken weekly moving averages. Everyone uses different weekly averages, obviously. I tend to find that the 21 and the F55 work quite well on multiple timeframes. You can see here that it's not perfect, but nothing is. But, you know, when you see a false breakthrough and a move back above, even that in itself is quite a good signal, even if it hasn't perfectly bounced on it. So to me, you can still use those as some rough areas of support, and the high from that consolidation area that we broke strongly above before breaking the trend line, that's the next area of support below. Failing that, we're looking at the lows here this, but this was, you know, obviously a strong morning star pattern as it turned out, candlesticks. A lot of bullish indications going on at the moment. A bit of a pause here after we broke out. Chance of the dip back could go further down, but my suspicion isn't much like the other indices. It's going to move up and challenge these highs again. And that may be somewhat, you know, how quickly that happens could be influenced by where the crude is, is basing out here. It looks like it is, but if we flip over to WGI was something I was looking at in more detail, it's not looking quite so good at the moment. We've had a few failed attempts at 54 in WGI. I thought it opened already. So here, this is the daily chart. I'm sure you've all seen this, but 54, as I mentioned, well, I've kind of got a bit lower than 54 on my chart, but that's really the key round number. Three failed attempts. And so you can see sort of what was happening here is that we basically had the 21-day moving average. In this instance, it was actually working perfectly as support bounced off at three times, bounced off 54 as resistance three times, and now we're moving back below the 21-day moving average. So it could be a false break, could get a move back and close above 50 again. That would be quite a strong signal maybe to the bullish side. But at the moment, it's not looking too good. If we get a close in this kind of vicinity, that to me suggests that we're going for another test down at the lows in oil. Just because, you know, we'll be getting back some fourths in the oil price. Basically, with the idea that some of the big oil companies are cutting their research lost for words here, but basically cutting their capital expenditure budgets. And then we're also seeing a drop in the rig counts. The major huge rig count comes out every Friday. And it's dropping by tens of rigs every week, and it's quite a large percentage at this point, sort of 400 or so in the last couple of months, I think, out of a total of was about 1,700 now. It's in the 1,300 vicinity. Those numbers are not perfect, but that's about right. So some signs that eventually those reduced rigs will result in less production, but at the moment there's not less production. There is more production, and you can see that in the inventories built up every Wednesday. Last week it was on Thursday, because we had the U.S. holiday, but there are record levels of inventories, i.e. all that oil is being produced, but it's not being used. So it's just being stockpiled. So even though we've had a bit of a sort of chance of reduced production, maybe later even this year, still it's not happening right now, and there's a risk that we can just break even back through the 44 again and push lower. So it's still a brave bet, in my opinion, going long oil, but it depends, again, like everything, how much you're willing to accept and risk on the downside, or it's never going to go below zero. So yes, that performance in that Norway 25 may be contingent on someone on this 44-level holding, and not so much WTI. Obviously it's more Brent that's the kind of global benchmark that's more related to Europe, but really it's the same. We're going to have a look at the Brent chart here, and you can see it's kind of much the same picture. Obviously that's the monthly chart that the scope of the dip we're dealing with. So you can see that's what we're dealing with on the longer-term basis. I think I've lost my short-term analysis. A bit more strength in Brent, just because it's this U.S. inventory data that's been particularly weak for the price. But if we get a dip, there's a little rising trend line going on through there, and there's similar risks posed of a break. That's maybe best drawn on a four-hour chart, something along these lines. To any under which, you know, that's a bit of a spike low there. You can see a lower high being formed, potential of a lower low, break of a trend line, three different signs that the trend is reversing and turning lower. Not to say there's not some support low down here in the middle, and we have to go right back to the lows, but to me that's a strong possibility. So in terms of if you are trading the Norway 25 and indeed all prices, it's those two data pieces which we're going to again see this week, which could be of strong influence. But those, as well as again, back to this Fed meeting, not Fed meetings, but the Janet Yellen testifying, you know, that's going to affect the US dollar. So if we have a look at the, let's have a look at the Dolly Yen, because that's tending to be a bit more moving according to the US dollar than the euro's got, obviously got its own set of influences at the moment. Here the Dolly Yen, well, yes, I mean, this has been sidelining, and I think it is because we haven't really, you know, we've got a bit of a kind of source of confusion from the latest Fed statement. I believe that was behind that. No, that wouldn't make sense. But we've, you know, we've got a potentially weaker dollar picture here, which I suppose that does correspond to that, whereby, you know, if the Fed is suddenly becoming a bit more dovish and worried about some of the macroeconomic indicators, which have been a bit weaker, particularly look at, you know, retail sales, you know, the hope was that the drop in oil prices was going to feed through into people going out and spending. We even saw some weak confidence data last week at the University of Michigan. So if consumers are not confident in not spending, even when oil prices have dropped this much, which obviously makes up quite a large amount of gathered persons' income in America especially because they drive so much, if that's not going to do what is, you know, and that's maybe a source of some of the worry for the Fed. Even though we're getting such strong employment numbers, the jobs being created are not such that are really producing amazingly strong wage growth. So that being said, you know, what Janet Yellen says in the next couple of days is going to affect the US dollar and that is also going to affect oil prices. Keep in mind that if you bring up, we can do it here, let's bring up a couple of cheap, clean charts here. A chart of the euro. Let's make it, let's just make it a line chart to make it very simple. And then we bring in Brent. A fallen Brent, obviously, percentage is difficult to do this. What we need is more like a log scale. The point I was trying to make, it's difficult to make on a one-day chart, we need more like a weekly chart, is that they both sort of peed around June last year and have been declining since. Obviously the fall in oil has been a lot bigger than the fall in oil, but you can see the kind of basing, you know, why is this? Why is there some signs that, you know, they tend to roll over at the same sort of time? It's basically US dollar related. So again, anything that the Fed is doing is going to not only affect major currencies, but also affect oil prices and affect any indices like the Norway 25 or even the FTSE 100 and the US 30, which obviously have the big oil majors in there, is going to affect performance there too. We're running out of time here, so I'll just jump over to gold, which has been particularly disappointing for any of those who are sort of gold bugs out there or just at least hopeful of higher prices. This I think is a very simple weekly chart, which is kind of defining where we are at the moment. There's another potential trend line that can draw through above to these highs. We didn't get that far. I think really it's these, the connection of these two highs which has been used here. And obviously that round number of 1,300, we've got the push through, a little fake breakout, and then a sort of gravestone doji sort of type pattern here, hanging man type pattern, and then just a drop back into this kind of triangle pattern. So we obviously have this break, this false break below 1,180. Couldn't sustain below there, push back up, but we'll just bounce right into this triangle resistance. And so now we're right back at this rising trend line, which is a bit of a confluence of support with this 1,180 long-term support. So this to me is the last hope for gold back down to 1,180. Of course we could just bounce off these lows around 1,335 again. And I'm sure we will do that to some degree, but I don't think it's going to last too long. We might bounce into 1,180 again. And then I think I was a bit more hopeful in gold with this. There was a little kind of inverse head and shoulders pattern going on here, which could have pushed us higher up into these highs. But even then I wasn't confident we could get past those highs, as it is we haven't even made it to those. And if this pattern were to play out, it's not even necessarily just a triangle, which would have the height of that area projected down. It could even be a bare pendant, which would be using this as a pole, and then the height of that pole projected down as well. So that would bring us at substantially lower prices, like below $800 per ounce. So that's the big long-term winning gold. I thought I was mentioning that. Well, we've got a little bit of time. I'll just chuck them on silver as well, because that's even more obvious. This is just, you know, maybe you don't want to, you know, when you look at these longer-term charts, you could come away with a few different thoughts. Hey, maybe I should be trading these longer-term charts. They look so clean and easy to trade them with the benefit of hindsight. Or you could at least think I need to pay attention to them to like help orientate my short-term trading. Or you could just think, well, some of the kind of simple concepts that you see in these longer-term charts, I can at least apply those to my short-term trading, like this one being a very obvious support breakthrough. Support turns into resistance, and now we're dropping back down. And then, you know, very simple use of the RSI. We were heavily oversold. We managed to get back through 50, but we failed at the 60 level on RSI. We weren't able to push through into a kind of bullish zone. In RSI, we failed at 60, dropped through 50 retests down again. So now we're even below 50 on RSI. We've dropped below the 21 week in silver. So a bit like oil prices, we've had a bounce, but now we look like we're going in and testing the lows again. I wouldn't be surprised to see us sub-15 in silver. So I'm not sure I've covered everything. You know, it's very difficult to do that. If anyone has any other sort of questions about, you know, kind of key things they should be looking for this week or any particular market they want me to cover. A couple of rough things I've mentioned from the economic calendars. We've got the second estimate of the UK GDP on Thursday. That won't be big for the pound, which we haven't discussed in detail. Today, we have got druggy speaking on Wednesday. That might end up that, you know, that will be a bit later. Well, actually, yeah, that'll be a bit later on. So it probably may be more influential on Thursday's trading. That may end up weighing more on the market than Yellen's second of speech. Like I said, it will probably be Yellen's first speech on Tuesday, which is more influence. And then the preliminary GDP release for the U.S. on Friday, as well as French and German CPI on Friday, which kind of maybe, especially if there is some sort of resolution, at least temporary in Greece, does bring us back to what's the main kind of driving force here in the Euro and European markets is that we've basically got deflation in Europe. And that's why the CVV are engaging in quantitative easing. Right, well, yeah, I think that's better. Thanks very much for attending the webinar. Good luck with trading this week. And this is Jasper Lawler signing off.